XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:06 UTC
Range-bound, rebounding off the week low · RSI 53 · price 4,163.15
Higher lows off 4104 inside a 4104–4227 range; lower highs from Friday.
Gold has traded inside the 4104–4227 band all week. That band was set by Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 friday high and the NY-session reversal that followed. Tuesday's Asia dip broke Monday's 4123 low and reached the 4104 week low, then turned into a London-led rally; the NY pullback held near the fib 50% at ~4144 before a late push to the 4183.9 tuesday high. Price now sits just above ema20 (~4158) with RSI(14) near 53 after topping around 60, and the digest frames the bounce as yields and USD pausing, with lower highs from Friday still intact.
Support: 4,158.20, 4,143.90, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4183.9 tuesday high and the 4200 round number breaks the lower-highs sequence from Friday's 4227
Loss of ema20 and then the fib 50% near 4144 would unwind most of Tuesday's rebound
Failure to hold the 4104 week low confirms a lower-low and turns Tuesday's false break into a range break
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields and USD
22:05 UTC
Rebound off week low, stalling under 4184 · RSI 57 · price 4,163.96
Higher lows since Tuesday's Asia low inside a 4104–4227 swing range.
Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 Friday high reversed hard during NY hours. Gold then swept below Monday's 4123 low to a 4104 week low in Tuesday's Asia session before London drove the recovery. The bounce printed a higher low at 4143.6 in the NY session and stalled at the 4184 week high, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Friday-to-Tuesday decline. Price now sits near the 50% level, just above the ema20 and on the rising trendline, while the digest reads the rebound as profit-taking with 10y yields near 5.3% capping rallies.
Support: 4,143.61, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the rising trendline and the 4143.6 higher low returns focus to the 4104 week low
A close above the 4184 week high opens the 4200 round number, then the 4227 Friday high
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 would mark the rebound as fading
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via long-end yields and USD
21:07 UTC
Short-term recovery inside a wider 4104–4227 range · RSI 56 · price 4,163.96
Higher lows since Tuesday's 4104 low, capped below the 4184 day high.
Gold put in a 4104 week low in Tuesday's Asia session, then London and NY built a sequence of higher lows as yields and the USD paused. The rebound has retraced about half of Friday's post-NFP drop from the 4227 friday high and stalled at the 4184 day high, near the 61.8% fib. Price is now testing ema20 near 4157 and the rising higher-lows trendline, with RSI(14) at 56 and holding above the 4141 weekly open.
Support: 4,157.00, 4,141.32, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4184 day high opens the 4200 round number, then the 4227 friday high
Failure to hold ema20 and the higher-lows trendline puts the 4141 weekly open back in play
A break below the 4104 week low would resume the leg lower from Friday
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia low inside 4104–4197 range.
Gold has rebuilt from Tuesday's Asia-session two-month low at 4103.9. Since then it has printed higher lows through London and NY, and the NY-open dip found the EMA20 near 4150 while the 4143.6 swing low held. The rally has stalled at 4179.6–4183.9, where the week high sits on the 61.8% fib of Friday's post-NFP drop from the 4227.3 NFP high, with RSI(14) near 57 and off its intraday peak; the prior high at 4196.8 caps the pre-NFP range that failed on Friday as 10y yields pressed multi-decade highs.
Support: 4,157.20, 4,143.60, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,183.90, 4,196.80, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4183.9 week high and 61.8% fib opens the 4196.8 prior high, then the 4227.3 NFP high
A break of the higher-lows trendline and the 4143.6 swing low, with the weekly open near 4141, returns focus to the 4103.9 two-month low
Sustained trade below the EMA20 near 4157 would mark the first loss of Tuesday's upside momentum
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields and the USD
19:04 UTC
Rebound off week low, testing lower-highs line · RSI 64 · price 4,176.76
Higher lows since Tuesday Asia low, inside 4104–4227 weekly range.
Gold printed the week low at 4103.93 in Tuesday's Asia session as long-end yields pushed higher. It has since recovered as yields and USD eased, reclaiming the weekly open near 4141 and the EMA20, with a NY-session higher low at 4143.61. Price is now retesting the day high at 4179.64, which sits on the 61.8% retracement of Friday's post-NFP drop from the 4227.28 nfp high and on the lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) is near 64.
Support: 4,157.00, 4,143.61, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4179.64 day high clears the 61.8% fib and the lower-highs line, opening the 4196.79 pre-nfp high and 4200
A second stall at 4179.64 leaves a double-test cap and keeps the post-NFP lower-highs sequence intact
Loss of the ema20 near 4157 and then the 4143.61 higher low breaks Tuesday's rising trendline, putting the 4103.93 week low back in view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~23h) could materially shift this read via long-end yields
18:04 UTC
Range after NFP reversal, rebounding · RSI 59 · price 4,164.33
4104–4180 range, higher low off 4104 under lower highs.
Gold has held a 4104–4180 range since Friday's spike to the 4227 nfp high reversed during NY hours. Tuesday's Asia-session dip to the 4104 2-month low undercut the 4123 monday low and was reclaimed. The London rebound came as the USD eased off its annual high, was rejected at the 4180 tuesday high, and the NY pullback low at 4144 held near the 50% fib. Price sits above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 59, still beneath the lower-highs line from the nfp high.
Support: 4,143.61, 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,196.79, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4180 tuesday high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4197 pre-nfp high, then the 4227 nfp high, into view
Loss of the 4144 pullback low and the higher-lows line returns focus to the 4123 monday low and the 4104 2-month low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and 10y yields near 5.34% could materially shift this read
17:06 UTC
Range after Friday's NFP reversal, higher lows since Asia · RSI 53 · price 4,157.23
Higher lows off 4104 week low, capped at 4180 week high.
Gold has been trading inside Friday's reversal from the 4227 nfp high, when the soft payrolls spike faded as long-end yields climbed. Today's Asia session printed a 4104 week low on fresh 10y highs, then London and NY lifted price to a 4180 week high as yields and the USD eased. That rally met rejection at the 61.8% of the nfp high to week low fib, but the pullback held a higher low at 4143.6, and price sits just above a flat ema20/EMA50 cluster near 4151 with RSI(14) neutral around 53.
Support: 4,143.60, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,200.00, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4180 week high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 4200 round number, with the 4227 nfp high beyond
Failure to hold the 4143.6 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4104 week low
Sustained trade below the ema20 near 4151 returns the read to the lower half of the week's range
FOMC Minutes, Wed 18:00 UTC: a hawkish read or new 10y yield highs could materially shift this read
16:04 UTC
Rebound inside a range, below Friday's NFP high · RSI 58 · price 4,163.23
Higher lows off 4104, capped near 4180.
Gold has traded a 4104–4180 range since Friday's post-NFP reversal from the 4227 nfp high, with the line of lower highs still intact. Tuesday's rebound began at the 4103.93 2-month low in Asia as 10y yields hit multi-decade highs, then ran through London into the NY open as yields and the USD eased. It met rejection at the 4179.64 week high. The NY pullback held 4143.6, just above the weekly open and near the 50% retrace of the Tuesday rebound, and price has climbed back above the ema20 with RSI(14) near 58 on a fresh higher low.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4179.64 week high breaks the range top and the lower-highs line, putting the 4200 round number and the 4227 nfp high in view
Loss of the ema20 and the 4141 weekly open breaks the Tuesday higher-lows line and exposes the 4104 2-month low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~26h) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
4104–4180 range with intraday higher lows off the Asia low.
Gold printed a 2-month low at 4103.93 in the Asia session as 10y yields hit fresh multi-decade highs. It then rebounded through London into the first hour of NY toward 4179.64 as yields and the USD eased, but the rejection at that day high leaves a sequence of lower highs intact since Friday's 4227 NFP high, with Monday's high at 4170 also capping. The pullback found demand at 4143.6, close to the 50% rebound retracement and the weekly open at 4141, and price is back above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,179.64, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4179.64 day high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence, opening the 4192–4196 area and the 4227 nfp high
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4141 and the 50% rebound level exposes the 4123 monday low, then the 4104 2-month low
Price stalling again below the 4170 monday high keeps the range read intact
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via long-end yields and the USD
4104–4180 range; Tuesday rebound faded under week high.
Gold has held a 4104–4180 range since Friday's NFP spike to the 4227 nfp high reversed. Tuesday's Asia session swept Monday's 4123 low to the 4104 week low (a two-month low), then recovered through London as yields and the dollar eased. The rebound stalled under the 4180 week high at the London-NY transition, and the first NY hour gave back to 4152. Price is now testing the ema20/50 cluster near 4150 and the 38.2% level of Tuesday's rebound fib, with RSI(14) back at 52.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,141.32, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,179.64, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4170 monday high and the 4180 week high reopens the 4200–4227 nfp high zone
Lower-highs line from Friday's 4227 nfp high caps the rebound while intact
Close below the ema20/50 cluster near 4150 and the 4141 weekly open shifts focus back to the 4104 week low
Fed Bowman 14:45 UTC today and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
V-shaped recovery from 4103.93 back into the upper half of the 4104–4227 range.
Gold reversed from Friday's NFP spike to 4227 during NY hours as long-end yields climbed, then broke below Monday's 4123 low to a two-month low at 4103.93 in the Asia session today before rebounding through London as the 10y eased. Price has reclaimed the ema20/ema50 cluster near 4150 and is pressing Monday's 4170 high, roughly the 50% fib of the 4227–4104 decline, with the session high at 4179.6 sitting just under the 61.8% level. RSI(14) has climbed from the low 30s to 59 without reaching overbought.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,141.32, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4179.6 session high and 61.8% fib opens the 4200 round number, then the 4227 nfp high
A break of the rally trendline and an H1 close back below the ema20/ema50 near 4150 shifts focus to the weekly open at 4141
A move back below the 4104 2-month low would confirm today's break below Monday's low as a lower-low rather than a false break
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4227 nfp high; V-recovery testing 61.8% fib.
Friday's NFP miss spiked gold to the 4227 nfp high, but the move fully reversed into the NY session as yields climbed. Monday then held a 4123–4170 range below EMA(20). Tuesday's Asia session swept to a 2-month low at 4103.93, and a London-led recovery on the yield/USD breather has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 4148 and pushed price just above the monday high at 4170. Price is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the nfp-high-to-low decline at 4180. RSI(14) has lifted to around 61, and the sequence of lower highs since Friday is under test but not yet broken.
Support: 4,170.34, 4,147.90, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,180.16, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the monday high at 4170 would mark the 61.8% fib at 4180 as a rejection and return focus to ema20 near 4148
Sustained trade above 4180 and the 4200 psych level would break the lower-high sequence and bring the 4227 nfp high back into view
Loss of the rebound line from the 2-month low would put 4103.93 back in play
Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
4104–4170 range below the NFP high; lower-high line broken in London after a false break under 4123.
Gold has carried a lower-high sequence since Friday's NFP spike to 4227 reversed in NY hours. Long-end yields at multi-decade highs pushed it to a week low of 4103.9 in Tuesday's Asia session, a false break under the 4123 Monday low that did not hold. London then lifted price back above EMA(20) near 4143 and through the lower-high line, with today high 4160.8 sitting just above the 38.2% of the NFP drop fib and RSI(14) recovering to ~57; Monday high 4170.3 is the next cap, with psych 4200 above.
Support: 4,142.70, 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,160.83, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4170.3 Monday high ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 50% NFP drop fib (~4166) behind price, opening psych 4200
Rejection at today high 4160.8 and a return below ema20 (~4143) would mark the lower-high line break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4123 Monday low exposes the 4103.9 week low again
Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, after ADP at 12:15 UTC, and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows; bounce from week low testing descending trendline.
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's NFP high at 4227.3 reversed. Rising long-end yields outweighed the 29K payrolls miss, and the sequence ran through the Monday high at 4170.3 to a fresh week low at 4103.9 in Tuesday's Asia session. Since London open, price has climbed back above EMA(20) and the weekly open at 4141.3 into the 38.2% fib of the NFP drop near 4151. The London session high at 4158.2 sits just above the descending trendline off the NFP high, with RSI(14) recovered to ~57.
Support: 4,141.30, 4,123.30, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,158.20, 4,170.30, 4,227.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4170.3 monday high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 50–61.8% fib zone near 4166–4180
Rejection back below the 4141.3 weekly open keeps the descending trendline intact and puts the 4123.3 monday low back in focus
Failure to hold the 4103.9 week low confirms another lower-low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday; London bounce has broken the lower-highs line.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227 reversed in NY hours. Since then the week high has held at 4170 on Monday, and Tuesday's Asia session printed a week low at 4103.9 as record long-end yields and a firm USD weighed on gold. The London open bounce has lifted price back above the weekly open (4141) and EMA(20) near 4140, broken the Monday–Tuesday lower-highs line and cleared the 38.2% fib at 4151, while RSI(14) has recovered to ~55. The 50% fib at 4165.6 and Monday's week high at 4170 are the next structural tests.
Support: 4,151.10, 4,141.30, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,165.60, 4,170.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 38.2% fib at 4151 and the weekly open at 4141 negates the lower-highs line break
Rejection at the 50% fib (4165.6) keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a close above the week high at 4170 breaks it, with the 4200 round number capping rallies since Friday
Loss of the week low at 4103.9 extends the lower-low structure toward the two-month low area
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday's NFP spike reversal.
Friday's NFP spike above Wednesday's 4219 high to 4227 failed in the first hours of NY and unwound to 4125. Rallies have since printed lower highs at 4170 (Monday high) and 4151, with Tuesday's Asia session posting a fresh 2-month low at 4104 as long-end US yields pushed to multi-decade peaks. The London open rebound has lifted price back above the 4141 weekly open and the ema20 at 4138, with RSI(14) back near 51, but the ema50 at 4147, the 38.2% fib at 4151 and the lower-highs trendline all sit just overhead.
Support: 4,137.70, 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,147.20, 4,151.05, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 38.2% fib at 4151 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the 4170 monday high is the next swing above
Failure to hold the ema20 at 4138 and a slide back through prior lows near 4123 puts the 4104 2-month low back in focus
An H1 close below the 4104 2-month low extends the lower-low structure
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday's NFP spike.
Friday's NFP spike to 4227 was rejected inside the NY session and unwound to 4125. That set a sequence of lower highs along a descending trendline: the Monday high at 4170 and Tuesday's early lower high at 4152. With US long-end yields at multi-decade peaks, the Asia session printed a fresh two-month week low at 4104, and a second dip held a higher session low at 4113. Price is back near 4131, still capped just under ema20 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the mid-40s and the 23.6% fib of the 4227–4104 drop overhead near 4133.
Support: 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4152 lower high, which also sits at the 38.2% fib, breaks the lower-high sequence
Close above the 4170 monday high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 4113 session low and the 4104 week low extends the lower-low sequence through the 4100 area
ADP (12:15 UTC) plus Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) in NY hours could shift this read
FOMC Minutes on Wed at 18:00 UTC is the higher-impact risk
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's post-NFP spike to 4227 reversed into a 4125 close: 4170 on Monday, then 4152 on Tuesday's open. During the Asia session the metal broke below Monday's 4123–4170 range to a 4103.93 session low, as record long-end yields and a firm USD outweighed fading Fed-hike bets. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4133 and below EMA(50), RSI(14) is in the high 30s, and the Monday low at 4123 now caps bounces beneath the weekly open at 4141.
Support: 4,103.93, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,123.30, 4,141.32, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4123 Monday low invalidates the range break
Failure to hold the 4103.93 session low and the 4100 psych level confirms another lower low in the downtrend
Reclaim of the 4141 weekly open and the 4152 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 38.2% of the post-NFP drop sits at 4151
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows below EMA(20) and EMA(50); 4110 low swept, little follow-through.
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's NFP spike to 4227 reversed in NY. Monday's London high at 4170 (the week high) and Tuesday's 4152 Asia high both capped, as record long-end yields and a YTD-high USD outweighed the payrolls miss. Price sits below EMA(20) near 4138 and the 4141 weekly open with RSI(14) at 39. Tuesday's Asia session wick to the 4103.93 asia low swept the 4110 2-month low before closing back above it, but follow-through since has been weak, and the 38.2% retracement of the 4227–4104 decline aligns with Tuesday's high near 4151.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4152 (tue high, 38.2%) breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
Acceptance back above the 4141 weekly open and EMA(20) would neutralise the downtrend read; 4170 week high is the next cap
Sustained trade below the 4110 2-month low and the 4103.93 asia low extends the lower-low sequence
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC today could shift the read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the main risk
A fresh break in the US 10y yield above 5.34% keeps pressure on the 4110 2-month low
Lower highs from 4227 over a 4123–4125 base; Asia dip to 4104 reclaimed.
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's NFP spike to 4227 was rejected and fully reversed through the NY session. Record-high long-end yields and a YTD-high USD have capped every rebound despite the payrolls miss. Monday's 4170 high (the monday high) faded into NY, and Asia's lower high at 4151 stalled at the 38.2% of the NFP reversal fib. Price sits below the weekly open at 4141, EMA(20) near 4140 and EMA(50) near 4150, with RSI(14) near 42; the Asia sweep low at 4104 under the monday low drew an immediate bounce back into the 4123–4130 base.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,151.40, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123 monday low, after the 4104 sweep low, would confirm the base has given way
Close back above the weekly open at 4141 and the lower-high trendline near 4153 breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 4170 monday high next
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift yields and this read
A retreat in the US 10y from ~5.34% would remove the main cap on rebounds toward the 4151 lower high
Lower highs from 4227; lows swept below 4123 then reclaimed.
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's NFP spike to 4227 reversed in the NY session. Monday's high at 4170 came in London, and Tuesday's Asia bounce stalled at 4152, at the fib 38.2% of that drop. The Asia session then swept below the Monday low to the 4104 sweep low, under the 4110 two-month pivot, before closing back near 4130. Price sits below EMA(20) and the weekly open at 4141 with RSI(14) near 40, while multi-decade-high 10y yields and a YTD-high USD keep capping rebounds.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,151.05, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4151 fib 38.2% breaks the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4123 monday low after the sweep reopens the 4104 sweep low
Reclaim of the weekly open at 4141 and EMA(20) needed to ease downside pressure
Above the 4170 monday high, the next reference is 4200
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today could shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and 10y yields near 5.34% are the dominant drivers
Friday's NFP-driven spike to 4227 was a false break above Wednesday's 4219 high and reversed through the NY session. Since then the pattern is lower highs: Monday's high at 4170 stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the NFP drop, and today's Asia high at 4151 sits lower again. Price is back under the weekly open at 4141, where EMA(20) also runs, and is pressing the 4123–4125 range floor that held Friday and twice on Monday. RSI(14) near 39 is soft but not oversold. The dovish 29K payrolls miss failed to lift gold, with 10y yields near 5.34% and a YTD-high USD capping each rebound.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,151.40, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123 range floor exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the 4141 weekly open and EMA(20), then a close above the 4151 asia high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Recovery through the 4170 monday high would neutralise the post-NFP downtrend read
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
Fresh 10y yield highs above ~5.34% keep pressure on the range floor
01:06 UTC
Lower highs since Friday, ranging above the lows · RSI 45 · price 4,149.62
Lower highs from 4227; flat base at 4123–4125; Monday range 4123–4170.
Gold has printed lower highs since the NFP spike to the 4227 prior high reversed during Friday's NY session. Record long-end yields and a YTD-high USD capped Monday at the 4170 weekly high, which stalled between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of that NFP reversal. Price is back near 4150 after an Asia-session bounce off the 4133 session low. It sits just above ema20 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) in the mid-40s, while Friday's and Monday's 4123–4125 lows form the weekly low floor of the range.
Support: 4,133.18, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,170.34, 4,200.00, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4123 weekly low breaks the range floor and opens the 4110 two-month low
Reclaim of the 4170 weekly high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the lower-high sequence, with the 4200 round number next
Another rejection under the 4200 round number or the 4227 prior high keeps the NFP reversal structure intact
Loss of ema20 and the 4133 session low returns price to the base of the range
Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
00:04 UTC
Downtrend since NFP spike, basing near lows · RSI 40 · price 4,136.57
Lower highs from 4227 into a 4123–4170 range floor.
Friday's NFP miss spiked gold to 4227 before NY sold it back to 4125, and Monday's London rally stalled at the 4170 monday high, between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that drop, keeping the lower-high sequence intact. ISM prices paid at 74 drove another NY-session leg down to 4123, a third test of the week low, as 5.3%+ yields and a firm USD outweighed the soft payrolls. Price is pinned below the H1 ema20 near 4144 with RSI(14) holding the 35–45 zone, and rallies toward the 4200 round number have not been tested since Friday.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,144.00, 4,170.34, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4170 monday high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4123 week low exposes the 4110 2-month low
Recapture of the ema20 near 4144 would shift the read toward range rather than continuation lower
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, then FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields