XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Intraday recovery from 4104 low, pausing below day high · RSI 45 · price 4,166.54
Higher lows at 4143.6 and 4154.3 off the low; early Asia holding a tight 4161.6–4169.9 range.
Gold climbed from the 4103.93 two-month low to a 4183.89 day high during NY hours as yields and the USD paused, then eased into a tight 4161.6–4169.9 Asian range. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the 4143.61–4183.89 NY leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and price is hugging EMA20.
Support: 4,161.59, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,169.93, 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4169.9 asian high reopens the 4179.6 prior high and 4183.9 day high
Loss of the 4161.6 asian low exposes the 4154.3 swing low near the 61.8% level of the NY leg fib
Break below the 4143.6 ny low ends the higher-low chain off the 4104 low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, with the US 10y near 5.3%, could materially shift this read
Tight Asian range 4161.59–4169.93 inside a 4143.61–4183.89 band.
Early Asia session is compressing in a 4161.59–4169.93 Asian range. Tuesday's rebound from the 4103.93 low, read as profit-taking while yields and USD paused, stalled with a rejection at the 4183.89 day high. Swing low 4154.29 is the last higher low, and the NY low at 4143.61 sits on the 50% level of the rebound fib.
Support: 4,161.59, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,169.93, 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4169.93 asian high puts the 4183.89 day high back in play; clearing it opens the 4200 round number
Break of the 4161.59 asian low exposes swing low 4154.29, then the ny low / 50% rebound fib near 4143.61
Failure to hold 4143.61 would undercut the higher-low sequence from the 4103.93 low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields and USD
23:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 4103.93, stalling below session high · RSI 44 · price 4,165.87
HH/HL from the 4103.93 low; lower highs and tight range since the 4183.89 session high.
Tuesday's bounce off the 4103.93 low ran to a 4183.89 session high late in NY as yields and USD paused. The pullback held the 4143.61 ny low near the 50% fib, and the upper wick at the high marked a rejection. Early Asia is compressing between the 4161.59 asia low and 4167.47 asia high, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,161.59, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,167.47, 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4161.59 asia low exposes the 4154.29 swing low
Close above the 4167.47 asia high reopens the 4179.64 prior high and 4183.89 session high
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low / 50% fib breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Uptrend from 4103.93 low, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 4,163.13
Higher lows from 4103.93; fade from 4183.89 day high into a tight Asian range.
Gold climbed off the 4103.93 two-month low in a higher-low chain through London and NY and set a day high at 4183.89, then faded late NY as long-end yields held firm. Early Asia is compressing in a 4161.59–4167.47 range just under the 23.6% fib of that move, below EMA20, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,161.59, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,167.47, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4161.59 asia low exposes the 4154.29 swing low near the 38.2% fib
Failure to hold 4143.61 at the 50% fib breaks the higher-low chain from 4103.93
Close above the 4167.47 asia high reopens the 4183.89 day high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:48 UTC
Rebound from 4104 low, stalling below session high · RSI 45 · price 4,164.00
Higher lows since the 4103.9 low; session high rejected, early-Asia consolidation 4162–4167.
Gold has built higher lows since Tuesday's 4103.9 Asia low as yields and USD paused. The late-NY push to a 4183.9 session high was rejected and price faded into the close. Early Asia is consolidating 4162–4167 near the 23.6% fib of the bounce, with RSI(14) ~45 and price pinned just under both EMAs.
Support: 4,162.20, 4,154.30, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,167.50, 4,183.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4162 swing low exposes the 4154.3 higher low, near the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 4143.6 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence off the 4104 low
Close above the 4167.5 asia high, then the 4183.9 session high, resumes the rebound structure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, pausing below day high · RSI 46 · price 4,165.48
Higher lows intact; pullback from day high to the 23.6% fib.
Gold has built higher lows off the 4103.93 Asia two-month low. London cleared the Asian range high near 4152 and NY extended to a day high of 4183.89 as yields and USD paused, but rejection there has eased price back to the 23.6% fib near 4165 in early Asia, just under ema20, with the late ny low at 4162.18 holding so far.
Support: 4,162.18, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4162.18 late ny low exposes the 4154.29 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 4153
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low / 50% fib breaks the higher-low sequence from the Asia low
Reclaim of ema20, then the 4179.64 prior high and 4183.89 day high, resumes the higher-high chain
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off the Asia low; pullback from the 4183.89 session high.
Gold turned from the 4103.93 two-month low in Asia and built higher lows at 4113 in London and at the 4143.61 NY low as yields and the USD paused. The late-NY push to a 4183.89 session high was rejected. Price is consolidating near 4166 into the new Asia session, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 4,162.18, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close below the 4162.18 late NY low exposes the 4154.29 swing low and the 38.2% fib near 4153
Loss of the 4143.61 NY low, at the 50% fib, breaks the higher-low sequence from the Asia low
Reclaim of the 4179.64 prior high and 4183.89 session high opens the 4200 round number
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; 10y yields near 5.3% remain the driver
22:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 52 · price 4,163.96
Higher lows off the Asia low; price at 50% retrace of the NY leg.
The bounce from the 4103.93 two-month low in Asia built a higher-low chain as yields and the USD paused. NY pushed to a session high at 4183.9, just above the london high, then was rejected and faded after the NY close. Price now sits at the 50% level of the NY leg fib, on the rising tl, with the 4162.2 pullback low just below.
Support: 4,162.20, 4,154.30, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.60, 4,183.90
What it said to watch
A break of the rising tl and the 4162.2 pullback low exposes the 4154.3 swing low; losing that breaks the higher-low chain
Recovery through the 4170.5 minor high puts the 4179.6 london high and 4183.9 session high back in play
A close below the 4143.6 ny low negates the intraday bounce structure from the Asia low
Thin rollover into the Asia session; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled catalyst that could materially shift this read
21:48 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, stalling below day high · RSI 48 · price 4,163.96
Higher lows since 4103.93; marginal new high at 4183.89 rejected, late-NY pullback.
Gold has printed higher lows off the 4103.93 Asia low as yields and USD paused, but the late-NY push to a 4183.89 day high was rejected and price has slipped to 4162-4164, under ema20 and the rising line from 4113, RSI(14) neutral at 48. The 4154.29 swing low sits near the 38.2% fib of the 4104-4184 leg, with the 4143.61 NY low at the 50%.
Support: 4,162.20, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4162 late low exposes the 4154.29 swing low / 38.2% fib
Loss of the 4143.61 NY low (50% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4170.5 pivot and the 4179.64 prior high puts the 4183.89 day high back in play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; thin Asia session ahead of it
21:32 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, pulling back · RSI 50 · price 4,163.96
Higher lows intact; marginal new day high rejected, retracing in thin after-hours trade.
Higher lows off the 4103.93 Asia low lifted gold to a 4183.89 day high late in NY, a marginal break of the 4179.64 london high that met rejection as yields and the dollar held firm ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes. Price is now at the 50% retrace of the 4143.61–4183.89 leg, sitting on the rising trendline just above the 4162.18 late low, with RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 4,162.18, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.29 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4143.61 ny low
Holding the 4162.18 late low and reclaiming the 4179.64 london high puts the 4183.89 day high back in focus
Sustained trade below the rising trendline from the 4113 low weakens the intraday uptrend read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC, with NY Fed inflation expectations and Fed's Logan earlier Wed, could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back late NY · RSI 51 · price 4,163.96
Higher lows from 4103.93 Asia low; rejection at 4183.89 session high.
Gold bounced off the 4103.93 two-month low in Asia as yields and USD paused, broke the Asian range high in London and printed a session high at 4183.89 in NY before a rejection. The NY low at 4143.61 held the 50% of the intraday fib. Late-NY drift now sits near the 23.6% level around 4164, just under EMA20, with the swing low at 4154.29 the first higher low below.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.51, 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.29 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the ny low at 4143.61 (50% intraday fib)
Reclaim of the 4170.51 prior high puts the london high and session high at 4179.64–4183.89 back in play
Thin Asia session open next; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the main scheduled risk to this read
Higher lows off 4103.93; false break above london high.
Gold has built higher lows off the 4103.93 Asia low as yields and USD paused. London cleared the asian high at 4151.40, and late NY pushed to a 4183.89 session high, but that marginal break of the 4179.64 london high was rejected. Price now sits below ema20 at the 50% fib of the NY swing near 4164, with the 4154.29 swing low as the nearest higher low.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,151.40, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.29 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the asian high at 4151.40
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low would leave 4183.89 as a lower high and end the NY swing
A reclaim of ema20, then a close back above the 4179.64 london high, reopens the 4183.89 session high
Calendar is quiet until FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; until then moves track the 10y yield and USD
20:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 47 · price 4,162.54
Higher-low chain from 4113 intact; lower highs since the 4183.89 rejection.
Gold rebounded from the Asia sweep to the 4104 two-month low as yields and the USD paused. It cleared the Asian high and the 4179.64 London high, setting a 4183.89 session high late in NY. That high was rejected, and price has slipped below EMA20 to the 50% retracement of the 4143–4184 rally near 4163, sitting on the ema50 with RSI(14) at a neutral 47.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.22, 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4154.29 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4143.61 ny low (61.8% fib near 4159 first)
Recovery above the 4170 lower high reopens the london high at 4179.64 and the 4183.89 session high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC: a hawkish read on yields could materially shift this read
20:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from day high · RSI 49 · price 4,163.75
Higher lows off 4103.93 Asia low; marginal higher high at 4183.89 rejected.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 Asia low as yields and the USD paused. London cleared the Asian range high, and NY held a higher low at 4143.61 before a marginal new day high at 4183.89 was rejected. Late in the NY session, price at 4164 is testing the rising trendline from the 4113 low, just above the late low at 4162.46, with RSI(14) near 49 diverging from that higher high.
Support: 4,162.46, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.29 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4143.61 ny low at the 50% fib of the rebound
Holding the 4162.46 late low on the rising trendline keeps the pullback shallow
Reclaiming the 4179.64 prior high and 4183.89 day high reopens the 4200 round number
Daily rollover into the Asia session thins liquidity; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 56 · price 4,167.80
Higher lows from the Asia low, late-NY rejection at 4183.89.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 two-month low set in Asia, cleared the Asian range high in London, then made a late-NY session high at 4183.89. That high was rejected and price has slipped back to the 38.2% fib near 4168, holding just above EMA20 with RSI(14) at 56. Higher lows at the 4143.61 NY low and the 4154.29 swing low keep the rising trendline intact as yields paused.
Support: 4,166.65, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
Close below the 4166.65 pullback low and the rising trendline (~4164) puts the 4154.29 swing low in play
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low breaks the higher-low chain from the Asia low
Reclaim of the 4179.64 prior high reopens the 4183.89 session high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; the 10y yield near 5.3% remains the dominant driver for gold
20:04 UTC
Uptrend off the Asia low, stalling late NY · RSI 58 · price 4,169.39
Higher lows from 4143.61; false break of prior high at 4183.89.
Gold has rebounded from the 4103.93 Asia low as yields and USD paused, printing higher lows at the 4143.61 NY low and 4154.29 in late NY. The push through the 4179.64 prior high to a 4183.89 session high was rejected, and price is back near 4169, holding just above the 4166.65 swing low and EMA20 as NY winds down.
Support: 4,166.65, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4183.89 session high would negate the false break and extend the higher-high chain
Break of the 4154.29 higher low cuts the rising trendline and the 38.2% fib
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low at the 50% fib would unwind the London-NY rebound
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next scheduled catalyst for yields and gold
19:47 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 4,169.38
Higher lows since Asia low; late-NY high rejected.
Gold has built a higher-low chain off the 4103.93 Asia low as yields and the USD eased. A late-NY push to a 4183.89 session high was rejected just above the 4179.64 prior high. Price is now sitting on the 38.2% fib of the 4143.61–4183.89 leg and the rising lows trendline near 4168, just above the 4166.58 higher low, with RSI(14) cooling to ~58.
Support: 4,166.58, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4166.58 higher low and the rising lows line exposes the 4154.29 swing low and the 61.8% fib near 4159
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low breaks the intraday higher-low structure
M15 close above the 4183.89 session high opens the path toward the 4200 round number
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y yields near 5.3% could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Uptrend off Asia low, stalling at highs · RSI 51 · price 4,171.37
Higher lows since NY low; false break above London high.
Gold has rebuilt from the 4,104 Asia-session low as yields and USD pulled back, printing higher lows at the NY low 4143.61 and the 4154.29 swing low. Late NY pushed to a new session high at 4183.89 but closed back below the London high at 4179.64, a false break and rejection with RSI(14) cooling to about 51.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4183.89 session high reopens the path to the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4154.29 swing low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the NY low at 4143.61
Pullback holding near 4168 (38.2% of the NY low-high leg) keeps the move shallow
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Uptrend, testing session high · RSI 62 · price 4,177.76
Higher lows since NY open, pressing the 4179.6 session high.
Gold has rebounded from the 4103.9 two-month low printed in Asia as yields and the USD eased. Late in the NY session it cleared the 4170.5 prior high and is now retesting the 4179.6 session high. Higher lows at the 4143.6 NY low, which sits near the 50% rebound fib, and the 4154.3 swing low define the rising trendline, with RSI(14) at ~62 and not stretched.
Support: 4,170.50, 4,154.30, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4179.6 session high opens the 4200 round number
Rejection at 4179.6 followed by a close back below the 4170.5 prior high would leave a double top at the session high
Break of the rising trendline and the 4154.3 swing low ends the higher-low chain, exposing the 4143.6 NY low and the 50% rebound fib
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~23h) could materially shift this read; long-end yields remain the driver
18:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, momentum moderate · RSI 60 · price 4,170.13
Higher low at 4154.29 after NY-open pullback; price pressing 4172.88 swing high, below 4179.64 day high.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 two-month low set in Asia as yields and the USD eased, and London cleared the Asian range high near 4152. The NY-open pullback held at 4143.61 near the 50% of the rebound fib, and a higher low at 4154.29 has price retesting the 4172.88 swing high late in the NY session with RSI(14) near 60.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,172.88, 4,179.64, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4179.64 day high extends the higher-high chain and opens the path to the 4200 psych level
Break below the 4154.29 higher low breaks the trendline and puts the 4143.61 NY low back in play
Late NY into the daily break, so thinner conditions; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next major risk to this read
18:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, stalling below day high · RSI 59 · price 4,168.83
Higher lows since NY pullback; late high capped under day high.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 Asia low as yields and the USD eased. London cleared the Asian range high near 4152, and NY topped at 4179.64 before the pullback held at the 4143.61 NY low, close to the 50% fib of the Asia low–day high leg. Late in the NY session price is building higher lows at 4154.29, but the 4172.88 late high has stalled below the day high.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,172.88, 4,179.64, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4179.64 day high opens the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4154.29 higher low breaks the trendline and exposes the 4143.61 NY low / 50% fib
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~23.5h) could materially shift this read
Lower high and higher low compressing into a late-NY consolidation.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 Asian low and broke the 4152 Asian high during London, topping at the 4179.64 session high midday as the USD and yields eased. The NY pullback held 4143.61, near the 50% fib of the rally. Since then a lower high at 4170.51 and a higher low at 4154.29 have squeezed price into a tight consolidation after London close, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,152.13, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.51, 4,179.64, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.51 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 4179.64 session high back in focus
A push through 4179.64 brings the 4200 round number into view
Failure to hold the 4154.29 higher low exposes the 4152 Asian high and the 4143.61 NY low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and 10y yields near 5.3% could materially shift this read
17:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, now compressing · RSI 57 · price 4,164.10
Lower high vs higher low after London breakout of Asian range.
Gold recovered from the 4103.9 two-month low in Asia. London cleared the 4151.4 Asian high and ran to a 4179.6 session high as yields and the USD eased, before NY pulled back to a 4143.6 NY low near the 50% fib, where buyers stepped in. Mid-to-late NY session, price is compressing between a 4170.5 lower high and a 4154.3 swing low, RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 4,154.30, 4,151.40, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.5 lower high reopens the 4179.6 session high
Break of the 4154.3 swing low exposes the 4151.4 Asian high and the 4143.6 NY low / 50% fib
Loss of 4143.6 would turn the higher-lows structure into a deeper retracement of the Asian-low rally
US 10y yield near 5.3% has been driving gold; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Compression between a 4170.5 lower high and a 4154.3 higher low after the NY pullback.
London cleared the Asian range high at 4152 and ran from the 4104 two-month low to a 4179.6 session high as yields and the USD eased. NY retraced to the 4143.6 NY low, near the 50% fib of that leg, before recovering. Late NY is now compressing between a 4170.5 lower high and a 4154.3 higher low, with price on EMA20 and RSI(14) neutral near 54.
Support: 4,154.30, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4154.3 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the 4143.6 NY low / 50% fib
M15 close above the 4170.5 lower high breaks the compression and reopens the 4179.6 session high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~24h); long-end yields and USD remain the driver into the event
Lower highs from 4179.6 vs higher lows from 4143.6, coiling mid-NY session.
Gold rebounded from the Asia low at 4103.9 as yields and the USD eased. London cleared the Asian range high near 4152 and ran to a 4179.6 session high. NY has since compressed between lower highs at the 4170.5 NY high and higher lows at the 4143.6 NY low and the 4154.3 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% retrace; RSI(14) is neutral at 54.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.51, 4,179.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.5 NY high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 4179.6 session high
Loss of the 4154.3 swing low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 4143.6 NY low and the 50% retrace in focus
US 10y yield bouncing back toward multi-decade highs could cap the rebound
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~25h) could materially shift this read
17:06 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, stalling below session high · RSI 47 · price 4,157.10
Lower high at 4170.5 under 4179.6, NY low 4143.6 holding.
Gold rebounded from the 4104 Asia low as yields and the USD eased. London broke the 4152 asian high and topped at the 4179.6 session high, and the NY pullback held 4143.6 inside the 38.2–50% fib. The rebound has since printed a lower high at 4170.5, and after London close price is sliding back toward the asian high with RSI(14) flat near 47.
Support: 4,152.10, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.6 ny low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% fib near 4133
Close back above the 4170.5 lower high reopens the 4179.6 session high
Holding 4152 asian high keeps the London breakout level intact as a retest
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC; US 10y yield swings remain the intraday driver
16:47 UTC
Intraday recovery from 4104, stalling below day high · RSI 47 · price 4,160.20
Lower high 4170.5 under 4179.6 day high, higher low 4143.6; late-NY compression around 4160.
Gold rebounded from the Asia two-month low near 4104 as yields and the USD eased. London cleared the asian high at 4152 and ran to a 4179.6 day high. NY pulled back to a 4143.6 ny low, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London leg and on rising support, then printed a lower high at 4170.5; price is now compressing near 4160 just under EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 4,152.10, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4152 asian high puts the 4143.6 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 4138.7 back in focus
Close above the 4170.5 lower high breaks the lower high line and reopens the 4179.6 day high
Loss of rising support from the 4113 low would end the higher-low sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y yield moves can materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend from Asia low, now stalling · RSI 46 · price 4,160.68
Lower high at 4170.51 under 4179.64 day high; higher low held at 4143.61.
London broke the Asian range high near 4152 and ran from the 4103.93 Asia low to a 4179.64 day high as yields and USD eased. NY pulled back to a 4143.61 ny low near the 50% fib, then printed a lower high at 4170.51. After London close, price is pinned to EMA20 near 4160 with RSI(14) mid-range at 46.
Support: 4,152.00, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.51, 4,179.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.51 lower high reopens the 4179.64 day high
Loss of the 4152 asia high puts the 4143.61 ny low and 50% fib back in play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and the 10y yield near 5.3% could materially shift this read
16:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, momentum stalling · RSI 49 · price 4,162.63
Higher lows from 4103.9; NY lower high at 4170.5 under the 4179.6 session high.
London broke the Asian high at 4152.1 and ran to a 4179.6 session high as yields and the USD eased off the 4103.9 Asia low. The NY pullback held 4143.6, near the 50% fib of that rally and on rising support, but the rebound stalled at a lower high of 4170.5. Price is now pivoting on ema20 after London close, with RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 4,152.10, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,170.50, 4,179.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.5 lower high reopens the 4179.6 session high, then 4200 psych
Loss of the 4152.1 Asian high and a close below the 4143.6 NY low would break rising support and the higher-low chain
US 10y yield near 5.3% remains the intraday driver; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~26h) is the next scheduled catalyst, with no events in the next 8h
Higher low at 4143.61 under a lower high at 4170.51, compressing below the day high.
Gold swept to 4103.93 in the Asia session on rising yields, then rallied through London to a 4179.64 day high as yields and the USD eased. The NY pullback held 4143.61 near the 50% fib. The rebound has stalled at a 4170.51 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price just above EMA20.
Support: 4,152.00, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,170.51, 4,179.64
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4170.51 lower high reopens the 4179.64 day high
4152 pivot is the first area to watch for absorption on a pullback
Loss of the 4143.61 ny low breaks rising support and the higher-low sequence, exposing the 61.8% fib near 4132.85
10y yield near 5.3% and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~26h) could materially shift this read
15:48 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asian low, NY dip recovered · RSI 57 · price 4,166.93
Higher low at 4143.61, retesting below 4179.64 day high.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 Asian low as yields and the USD eased, clearing the asian high at 4152 in London and printing a day high of 4179.64. The NY pullback held the ny low at 4143.61, near the 50% of the rally fib and on the uptrend line, and price is now pressing the 4169 rebound high with RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,169.22, 4,179.64
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 4152 erodes the range break
Break of the ny low at 4143.61 breaks the uptrend line and the higher-low chain
Stall at the rebound high or day high at 4179.64 leaves a lower high; a close above the day high opens 4200
Fresh highs in the US 10y yield near 5.34% have capped gold and could undercut the rebound
15:33 UTC
Intraday uptrend off Asia low, NY pullback recovering · RSI 55 · price 4,163.14
Higher low at 4143.6 after London break of Asian high; testing 4165 bounce high.
Gold put in a two-month low at the 4103.9 asia low as 10y yields hit multi-decade highs. London then broke the asian high at 4152 and ran to a 4179.6 session high as USD and yields eased. NY retraced to the 4143.6 ny low, just above the 50% fib of that move, and price is back at 4163 pressing the 4165 bounce high with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 4,152.10, 4,143.60, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,165.00, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4165 bounce high reopens the 4179.6 session high
Loss of the 4152 asian high, then the 4143.6 ny low and rising support, breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the 4103.9 asia low back in view
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC (~26h) and the US 10y yield near 5.3% remain the dominant drivers
15:19 UTC
Intraday uptrend, recovering from NY pullback · RSI 57 · price 4,164.67
Higher lows at 4104, 4113 and 4144; lower high at 4174 still capping.
Gold rebounded from the 4104 2-month low in Asia, cleared the asia high at 4152 in London and ran to a 4179.64 session high as yields and the USD eased. The NY pullback found a swing low at 4143.61, near the 50% fib of the 4104–4180 rally and on the higher-low line, and price has since recovered above EMA20 but remains under the 4174 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral at 57.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,143.61, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,174.45, 4,179.64, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4174.45 lower high reopens the 4179.64 session high and the 4200 round number
A move back below the 4152 asia high returns price into the Asian range
Loss of the 4143.61 swing low and the higher-low line breaks the HL chain and puts the 4104 2-month low back in play
Fresh highs in the US 10y yield or FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
15:05 UTC
London uptrend checked by NY pullback, now rebounding · RSI 53 · price 4,158.07
NY lower highs from 4179.6, 50% fib held at the NY low, Asian high reclaimed.
London broke the Asian high at 4152 and ran to a 4179.6 session high as yields and the USD eased off Asia's 4104 two-month low. NY open was rejected there, and a lower-high sequence pulled price to a 4143.6 NY low near the 50% fib of the 4104–4180 leg. The bounce has since reclaimed the Asian high, with price sitting on ema20 near 4158 and RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 4,152.10, 4,143.60, 4,132.90
Resistance: 4,165.10, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4152 Asian high puts the 4143.6 NY low and 50% fib back in play
Failure to hold the 4143.6 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4132.9 and undercuts the London breakout
M15 close above the 4165 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence and reopens the 4179.6 session high
10y yield retesting multi-decade highs could cap the rebound; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled risk
14:48 UTC
Rebound off Asia low, NY pulling back · RSI 43 · price 4,152.92
Higher low at 4113.4 intact; NY lower highs from 4179.6.
Gold climbed through London from the 4103.93 Asia two-month low to a 4179.64 session high as yields eased. NY has rejected that high with a run of lower highs, and the pullback held the 4143.61 ny low near the 50% rebound fib. Price is back at the 38.2% level around 4152, below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,143.60, 4,132.90, 4,113.40
Resistance: 4,158.50, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4143.6 ny low exposes the fib 61.8 at 4132.9, then the 4113.4 higher low
Close above the 4158.5 lower high breaks the NY lower-high sequence; 4179.6 session high is next above
Break of the higher-low trendline from 4103.93 would undo the Asia rebound structure
Bowman speaking now (14:45 UTC) could shift the yield/USD read intraday
14:32 UTC
Intraday rally from Asia low, NY pullback deepening · RSI 39 · price 4,144.76
London HH/HL leg to 4179.6 rejected; NY printing lower highs and lower lows, back below Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 4152.1 and ran to a 4179.6 session high as yields eased, but NY has faded the move with lower highs, cracking the London trendline and slipping back below the Asian high. Price sits between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4104–4180 leg, with RSI(14) near 38.
Support: 4,141.80, 4,134.40, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,152.10, 4,158.50, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
Hold of the 50% fib at 4141.8 keeps the NY drop a retracement; a break exposes the swing low at 4134.4 and the 61.8% near 4132.9
M15 close back above the Asian high at 4152.1 and the 4158.5 lower high negates the NY lower-high sequence
Loss of 4134.4 leaves the 4104 asia low (two-month low) as the next reference
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could jolt yields and shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the bigger risk
Reclaim of the session high at 4179.6 needed to restore the London HH/HL chain
14:19 UTC
Intraday uptrend, correcting from session high · RSI 46 · price 4,154.26
London break above Asian high, NY pullback now retesting it.
Gold cleared the 4152 Asian high early in London and ran to a 4179.6 session high by midday as yields eased off the Asia low. The London-NY transition gave back about 27, breaking the 4165.8 prior low, and price is now retesting the Asian high, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 4113–4179 leg. RSI(14) is near 46 and price is back below EMA20.
Support: 4,152.00, 4,148.90, 4,138.70
Resistance: 4,165.80, 4,179.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4148.9 swing low fails the Asian high retest and exposes the fib 61.8% at 4138.7
Reclaim of the 4165.8 prior low restores the higher-low sequence and puts the 4179.6 session high back in focus
Fed Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
14:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in NY · RSI 47 · price 4,154.79
Asian range broken higher in London; NY pullback retesting the breakout.
Gold bounced off the 4,103.93 Asian low as yields eased, and London broke above the 4,152 asian high to a 4,179.64 session high. In the first hours of NY a run of lower highs from the 4,174.45 lower high has pulled price back to the 38.2% rebound fib, retesting the asian high with the 4,148.89 London swing low just below.
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4,148.89 swing low breaks London's higher-low chain and exposes the fib 50% at 4,146.54, then 61.8% near 4,138.7
A recovery through the 4,174.45 lower high would bring the 4,179.64 session high back into play
Fed Bowman at 14:45 UTC, inside the next hour, could materially shift this read
A renewed rise in 10y yields would pressure the retest of the asian high
13:48 UTC
Intraday up leg, NY pullback underway · RSI 52 · price 4,155.68
Lower highs since 12:00 UTC, retesting Asian high.
London cleared the Asian high at 4152 and ran to 4179.64 as yields and the USD eased, but lower highs since 12:00 UTC broke the London trendline. Early NY selling has pulled price back to the 38.2% level of the London leg fib, just above the 4152 Asian high, the ~4150 EMA50 and the 4148.89 swing low. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,148.89, 4,146.54
Resistance: 4,165.07, 4,179.64
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4148.89 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 4146.5, then 61.8% near 4138.7
Reclaim of the 4165 lower high neutralises the NY pullback, with the London high at 4179.64 above
Fed Bowman at 14:45 UTC, about an hour out, could shift yields and this read
13:32 UTC
Uptrend, early NY pullback · RSI 57 · price 4,163.69
HL off Asia low, London range break, lower high forming.
Gold bounced from the 4103.93 Asia low, the two-month low, then printed a higher low at 4113.44 as long-end yields eased, before London broke the Asian high at 4152.13 and ran to a 4179.64 session high. Early NY has pulled back to a 4160.85 pullback low near EMA20 after a lower high at 4174.45. RSI(14) has cooled to ~57.
Support: 4,160.85, 4,152.13, 4,148.89
Resistance: 4,174.45, 4,179.64, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close below 4152.13, the asian high and near the 38.2% fib, puts price back inside the Asian range
Failure to hold the 4148.89 swing low breaks the London HL chain
Reclaim of the 4174.45 lower high reopens the session high at 4179.64; 4200 round number above
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift yields and this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the larger risk
HH/HL chain from 4113 low; shallow pullback off 4179.6 session high.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.9 Asia low as long-end yields eased. London cleared the 4152 Asian high and printed a 4179.6 session high. Price is now holding a 4165.8 pullback low into the NY open, with the rising trendline intact and RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 4,165.80, 4,152.10, 4,141.80
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.8 pullback low and the rising trendline would break the HL chain and expose the 4152 asian high
Acceptance above the 4179.6 session high opens the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4141.8 fib 50% would put the London leg in question
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift yields and this read
13:05 UTC
Uptrend off Asia low, pausing below session high · RSI 69 · price 4,170.72
HH/HL chain since 06:00 UTC; pullback retesting prior high.
Gold set a two-month low at 4103.93 in Asia as long-end yields peaked, then climbed in a steady higher-low sequence as the 10y eased. London cleared the asian high at 4152.13, and the move ran to a session high at 4179.64. Early NY is pulling back into the prior high at 4166.3 with RSI(14) near 69, and the rising trendline still holds beneath it.
Support: 4,166.30, 4,156.08, 4,152.13
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4165.8 and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain, exposing the 4156.08 swing low
Loss of the asian high at 4152.13 (near the 38.2% fib of 4103.93–4179.64) would put the London breakout in question
Close above the 4179.64 session high opens the path toward the 4200 round number
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on December hike signalling could shift yields and this read
12:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 69 · price 4,171.36
Higher-low chain from 4113 low; Asian range high broken in London.
London broke the 4152 Asian high and extended a higher-low chain off the 4113 low to a 4179.6 session high as yields and the USD eased. Price is now pulling back to 4171 into the London-NY transition, still above the 4166 prior high and the rising trendline, with RSI(14) cooling from the low 70s.
Support: 4,166.30, 4,156.10, 4,152.10
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4166 prior high puts the 4156 higher low and 4152 Asian high in play; the 4152 area also sits at the 38.2% fib of the London rally
Break of the rising trendline (~4163) ends the London higher-low chain
Close above the 4179.6 session high opens the 4200 round number
Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Uptrend from Asia low, extended into NY open · RSI 71 · price 4,174.04
Higher highs and higher lows since 4104; prior-day high cleared, session high at 4179.6.
Gold rallied about $75 off the 4104 Asia low after London cleared the Asian range high near 4152 and then Monday's prior high at 4166, as yields and the USD paused. A session high printed at 4179.6 into the London-NY transition, RSI(14) cooling from the mid-70s, with the 4148.9 swing low anchoring the higher-low trendline.
Support: 4,166.30, 4,148.90
Resistance: 4,179.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
M15 close back below the 4166 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4148.9 swing low and the higher-low trendline breaks the intraday HH/HL chain, putting the 38.2% fib near 4151 in play
Close above the 4179.6 session high opens the path to the 4200 round number
Higher-low chain off Asia low, Asian range and prior high broken.
Gold has rallied about $75 off the Asia-session two-month low at 4103.93 on a yield/USD breather. London took out the Asian high at 4152.13 and Monday's prior high at 4168.57, printing a session high at 4179.64 on a steady higher-low chain. RSI(14) at 73 is warm but trend-normal, and price is holding above the rising trendline near 4165 into the NY open.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,152.13, 4,148.89
Resistance: 4,179.64, 4,200.00, 4,227.00
What it said to watch
Fed Williams at 13:05 UTC and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read in the first hours of NY
Close back below the 4168.57 prior high and the rising trendline puts the breakout in question
Break of the 4148.89 swing low, just under the 4152.13 asian high and the 38.2% fib, ends the higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4179.64 session high opens the 4200 round number, then the 4227 nfp reject zone
12:04 UTC
Uptrend, extended off the Asia low · RSI 73 · price 4,173.25
Higher-low chain from 4113.44, London broke the Asian high, now at session highs.
Gold has recovered about $70 off the 4103.93 two-month low set in Asia as yields and the USD paused. London built a higher-low chain from 4113.44 and cleared the Asian high at 4152, and price is now pressing the 4174.8 session high just above Monday's prior high at 4168.6, with RSI(14) near 73 into the London-NY transition.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,160.55, 4,152.13
Resistance: 4,174.76, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4168.6 prior high puts the breakout in question
Loss of the 4160.6 swing low and the rising support line breaks the higher-low chain
Asian high at 4152 sits near the 38.2% fib (4147.7) of the 4104–4175 leg, the deeper pullback zone
Session high at 4174.8, then the 4200 round number overhead
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Uptrend, extending into late London · RSI 74 · price 4,171.68
Higher highs and higher lows since the 4103.9 Asian low; Asian range high broken.
Gold has recovered from the 4103.9 two-month low printed in Asia as yields and the USD eased. London cleared the Asian high at 4152.1 and Monday's 4168.6 prior high, with the higher-low chain holding at the 4148.9 swing low. Price is pressing the 4172.5 session high, RSI(14) near 74 and stretched but not extreme.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,152.13, 4,148.89
Resistance: 4,172.48, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4168.6 prior high turns the break into a false break
Loss of the 4148.9 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain; the 4152.1 Asian high sits just above it
Acceptance above the 4172.5 session high opens the path toward the 4200 psych level
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Higher-low chain from the 4103.93 Asia session low; Asian range broken higher in London.
Gold has stacked higher lows since the 4103.93 Asia session low. London cleared the 4152.13 Asian high on USD profit-taking, and the session high now sits just under Monday's 4168.57 prior high with RSI(14) near 73. The 4148.89 swing low anchors the higher-low trendline into the London-NY transition.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,148.89
Resistance: 4,168.57, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4168.57 prior high clears the 24h range top, putting the 4200 round number in view
Return below the 4152.13 asian high reopens the Asian range and turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4148.89 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) around NY open could reprice yields and shift this read
11:18 UTC
Uptrend, higher highs and higher lows through London · RSI 69 · price 4,161.32
Asian range broken to the upside; HH/HL chain since 06:00 UTC, testing session high.
London extended the recovery off the 4113 pre-London low, clearing the Asian high at 4151.40 and holding a higher low at 4148.89 on the retest before pressing the 4161.89 session high, RSI(14) near 69. USD profit-taking drives the bounce off the two-month low area near 4104, with Monday's prior high at 4168.57 the next cap overhead.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,148.89
Resistance: 4,161.89, 4,168.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.57 prior high extends the HH/HL chain into fresh window highs
Failure to hold the 4148.89 higher low and a close back below the 4151.40 Asian high breaks the London uptrend structure
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC into the NY session could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Loss of the higher-low trendline marks the first lower low since the London rally began
11:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending off the overnight low · RSI 69 · price 4,158.44
Higher highs and higher lows since 06:00 UTC; Asian range high broken and retested.
Asia swept down to 4103.93 near the two-month low before London lifted gold through the 4152 Asian high on USD profit-taking. The 4148.89 swing low held as a retest of that break, and price is now just under the 4160.72 session high mid-London, with RSI(14) near 69 and rising support from 4113 intact.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,148.89, 4,139.03
Resistance: 4,160.72, 4,168.57
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4148.89 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the fib 38.2 at 4139 in play
Close above the 4160.72 session high opens the path to Monday's 4168.57 prior high
Loss of rising support from the 4113 low weakens the intraday uptrend read
ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could move yields and the USD into the NY session, materially shifting this read
10:47 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through London · RSI 73 · price 4,160.09
HH/HL chain off 4113.44, broken above Asian high.
London extended the rebound off the 4113.44 pre-open low, clearing the 4152.13 Asian high and printing a session high at 4160.72 with a rising trendline of higher lows intact, helped by USD profit-taking. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, and price sits just under Monday's 4164–4168.57 prior high, where supply capped the move yesterday.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,148.89
Resistance: 4,160.72, 4,168.57
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4168.57 prior high clears Monday's London top
Retest of the 4152.13 Asian high holding keeps the breakout read intact
Loss of the 4148.89 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low chain
Pullback toward the 50% of the London leg near 4137 would neutralise the breakout
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) around NY open could reprice yields and shift this read
Higher lows from 4103.93; Asian range high broken in London, retest held.
Gold rebounded from the 4103.93 two-month low in Asia, and London broke the asian high at 4152.13 on USD profit-taking, putting in a session high at 4158.18 still below Monday's prior high at 4168.57. The 10:15 UTC dip to the 4148.89 swing low held as a retest, leaving the rising trendline from the 4113.44 higher low intact with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,148.89, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,158.18, 4,168.57
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4152.13 asian high and 4148.89 swing low would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 4158.18 session high opens Monday's 4168.57 prior high
Break of the rising trendline exposes the 38.2% fib of the 4103.93–4158.18 leg near 4141, then the 4113.44 higher low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) in the NY session could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain since the 06:00 UTC higher low; retest of the Asian high.
After the Asian spike to 4103.93 was bought, London extended the rally from the 4113.44 higher low through the asian high at 4152.13 and topped at the 4158.18 session high. USD profit-taking drove the move. Price is now retesting 4150 psych from just under the Asian high, with RSI(14) cooling to ~61 and the ema20 trailing near 4143.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,143.00, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,152.13, 4,158.18, 4,168.57
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4150 psych and the ema20 near 4143 would turn the asian high break into a false break and put the rally fib 50% near 4136 in play
A close above the 4158.18 session high opens Monday's prior high at 4168.57
Loss of the 4113.44 higher low reopens the 4104 Asian spike low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Higher-low chain off the Asia low, now retesting the broken Asian high.
Gold dipped to 4103.93 in the Asia session near the $4,100 two-month low and then reversed. The London rally on USD profit-taking built a higher-low chain from the 4128.30 london low through the asian high at 4152.13 to a session high at 4158.18. Mid-London, RSI(14) is cooling from the low 70s and the last bar has slipped under the rising trendline, putting price back on the asian high as a retest.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,137.09, 4,128.30
Resistance: 4,158.18, 4,169.79
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4152 asian high turns the breakout into a false break and exposes the 4137 swing low
Loss of the 4137 swing low ends the London higher-low chain; the 4128 london low is next
Close above the 4158 session high reopens the 4170 prior high
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
09:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the two-month low · RSI 66 · price 4,153.30
HH/HL chain from 4103.93; London breakout above the Asian high now being retested.
London extended the rally off the 4103.93 two-month low and cleared the Asian high at 4152.13 to a session high at 4158.18, holding a 4149.98 swing low on the way. Price is back retesting the Asian high with RSI(14) easing from near 70, while record long-end yields keep the broader tape heavy.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,149.98, 4,128.30
Resistance: 4,158.18, 4,166.31, 4,169.79
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the Asian high and the 4149.98 swing low would mark the breakout as a false break
Close above the session high at 4158.18 opens the prior high at 4166.31 and the Monday high at 4169.79
Pullback holding the 38.2% of the rally fib (~4137.5) keeps the higher-low chain intact; loss of the London low at 4128.30 breaks it
ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Williams at 13:05 UTC could shift yields and this read
09:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the 4103.93 low, extended near the session high · RSI 68 · price 4,155.60
HH/HL chain since 06:00 UTC; Asian range high broken and retested.
Gold has rebounded from the 4103.93 two-month low and the 4113.44 dip at 06:00 UTC. London pushed through the Asian high at 4152.13, and the 09:00 UTC pullback held the 4149.98 swing low, keeping the rising trend of higher lows intact. RSI(14) sits near 68 just under the 4157.52 session high. Firm long-end yields and USD strength are still the backdrop, which makes this a relief bounce within heavier structure.
Support: 4,152.13, 4,149.98, 4,128.30
Resistance: 4,157.52, 4,169.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4149.98 swing low and the Asian high at 4152.13 would mark a failed breakout and break the rising trend
Close above the 4157.52 session high opens the path to Monday's prior high at 4169.80
A slide through the 38.2% fib near 4137 would put the London low at 4128.30 back in focus
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read via yields and USD
09:18 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at asian high · RSI 67 · price 4,151.42
HH/HL chain off 4113.44; London broke the Asian high, now retesting it.
Mid-London, gold has rallied from the 4113.44 higher low through the 4152.13 asian high. Price was rejected at the 4156.73 session high and is now retesting that breakout level, with RSI(14) easing to ~66. The rebound from the 4103.93 asian low sweep runs against firm long-end yields and the USD, and the digest flags the $4,150–4,200 zone as where rallies have been capped.
Support: 4,145.16, 4,137.09, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,152.13, 4,156.73, 4,169.80
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4145.16 higher low breaks the London HH/HL chain and exposes the 4137.09 swing low, near the 38.2% of the asian low → session high fib
Acceptance above the 4156.73 session high opens the path to the 4169.80 prior high from Monday's London session
Failure back below the 4152.13 asian high turns the London breakout into a false break
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could move yields and shift this read; the 4103.93 asian low sits at the two-month low area
09:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extended into London · RSI 71 · price 4,155.10
HH/HL chain off the 4104 Asian low; trading above the Asian range high.
Early London has extended the rebound from the 4103.93 Asia spike low, near the two-month low area, through the Asian high at 4152 in a clean HH/HL sequence, with RSI(14) near 71. The rally is running against a firm USD and record long-end yields per the digest, and the Monday high near 4168 is the next overhead reference.
Support: 4,152.10, 4,133.00
Resistance: 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A sustained move back below the asian high at 4152 turns the breakout into a false break
A pullback holding the london pivot near 4143, the 23.6% fib of the 4104–4156 leg, keeps the HH/HL chain intact; losing the 4133 swing low breaks it
Monday high at 4168: area to watch for rejection or break. The 4200 psych level above is where the digest says rallies have been capped
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD/yields and change this read
HH/HL chain from 4103.93, marginal break of Asian range high.
London extended the rally off the 4103.93 two-month low set in Asia. The move cleared the 4152.13 Asian range high to a 4153.93 session high, with a higher low at 4113.44 and a 4133 swing low underneath. Price is now sitting on that break with RSI(14) near 66, while long-end yields and a firm USD keep the backdrop heavy.
Support: 4,143.20, 4,133.00, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,153.93, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4152 (Asian range high) turns the session high break into a false break
Loss of the 4143.20 flip level (prior swing high) and the 4133 swing low breaks the intraday higher-low chain
Acceptance above the 4153.93 session high opens Monday's 4170.34 prior high
Higher-low line from 4103.93 sits near 4121; a break there exposes the 4113.44 higher low
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) plus Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
08:33 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher highs through London · RSI 71 · price 4,146.52
HH/HL chain off the morning low, pressing the upper end of the Asian range.
Gold has climbed back from the 4,103.93 Asian low, set as yield-driven USD strength sank it to a two-month low. London has printed a clean HH/HL chain along the London trendline off the 4,113.44 morning low and is now testing the 4,147.31 session high just under the 4,152.13 Asian high, with RSI(14) near 71: hot but normal for the leg.
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4,152.13 Asian high takes price out of the Asian range and puts the 4,170.34 Monday high in view
Rejection at the session high or Asian high followed by a break of the 4,137.09 higher low and the London trendline ends the HH/HL chain; the rally fib 50% at 4,130.38 sits below
Loss of the 4,113.44 morning low reopens the 4,103.93 Asian low
ADP 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could materially shift this read via yields and USD
08:17 UTC
Intraday recovery, higher lows off Asia low · RSI 62 · price 4,142.95
HL-HH sequence from 4103.93; pressing session high cap.
Gold bounced from the 4103.93 2-month low set in Asia, with yields near 5.34% still the backdrop. London open lifted price out of the 4120–4128 Asian consolidation, breaking its range top and printing higher lows at the 4113.44 swing low. Price now sits at the 4144 session high, a cluster that also capped late Monday and the Asia open, near the 78.6% level of the Asia drop fib, RSI(14) ~62.
Support: 4,128.30, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,144.00, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4144 session high opens the 4152.13 asia high
Slip back below the 4128 range top returns price to the Asian consolidation
Break of the 4113.44 swing low ends the higher lows sequence and exposes the 4103.93 2-month low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Rebounding from Asia low, short-term higher lows · RSI 61 · price 4,140.97
Higher low at 4113.44, break above 4138.83 rebound high; inside Asian range.
Gold printed a 2-month low at 4103.93 in Asia as long-end yields and the USD stayed firm, then put in a higher low at 4113.44 along a line of rising lows. The London open lifted price above EMA20 and the 4138.83 rebound high to a session high at 4143.20, near the 78.6% of the Asian drop and still below the asian high at 4152.13.
Support: 4,128.30, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,143.20, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4143.20 session high opens the 4152.13 asian high, then the 4170.34 prior high
Loss of the 4128.30 pullback low breaks the line of rising lows and puts the 4113.44 higher low back in play
Break below 4103.93 2-month low confirms a fresh lower-low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4113.44 after the Asian sweep to 4103.93; price in the upper half of the 4104–4152 Asian range.
Gold swept the 4110 two-month-low zone to 4103.93 in Asia as long-end yields held multi-decade highs, then set a higher low at 4113.44 before London open. The first hour of London lifted price to a 4143.20 london high, above the 61.8% fib of the Asian drop near 4133.7, with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 4,128.30, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,143.20, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143.20 london high opens the 4152.13 asian high
Failure to hold the 4128.30 london low puts price back below the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 4113.44 higher low and the 4103.93 asian low resumes the two-month-low break
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
07:32 UTC
Down-leg paused, early London recovery stalling · RSI 56 · price 4,134.56
Higher low at 4113.44 inside Asian range 4103.93–4152.13.
Asia swept to a 2-month low at 4103.93 and snapped back, then London open lifted price off a higher low at 4113.44 to 4143.20. Rejection at that London high leaves price mid Asian range near the 61.8% retrace, with record long-end yields and a YTD-high USD keeping the rebound capped.
Support: 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,143.20, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143.20 london high opens the 4152.13 asian high
Failure to hold the 4113.44 higher low exposes the 4103.93 2-month low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4113.44 after the Asia spike low; early London pressing the 4138.83 lower high.
Asia swept to a two-month low at 4103.93 (asian low) as long-end US yields held near 5.34%, and the wick was rejected fast. A higher low at 4113.44 and the rising lows have lifted price into early London. It is now testing the 4138.83 lower high near the 78.6% asia drop fib, with the 4130 shelf below and the prior high at 4145.29 / asian high at 4152.13 capping the Asian range.
Support: 4,130.00, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4145.29 prior high exposes the 4152.13 asian high
Loss of the 4130 shelf and the rising lows trendline returns focus to the 4113.44 higher low
Break of the 4103.93 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia sold off from the 4152.13 asian high to a sweep of 4103.93 that was reclaimed within the bar, with record long-end yields and a firm USD keeping gold heavy. A higher low at 4113.44 at 06:00 UTC lifted price to the 4135.20 recent high near the 61.8% of the Asian drop fib. At London open price sits mid-range above the 4120.40 swing low, RSI(14) neutral near 50.
Support: 4,120.40, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,135.20, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4135.20 recent high and 4138.83 lower high clears the 61.8% of the Asian drop and opens 4152.13 asian high
Loss of the 4120.40 swing low and the 4113.44 higher low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4103.93 asian low / $4,100 zone
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 could reprice yields and shift this read
06:48 UTC
Down-leg stalling, sharp bounce into London open · RSI 53 · price 4,131.13
Inside Asian range; higher low at 4113.44 after 2-month low, Asia lower-high chain broken.
Gold wicked to a 2-month low at 4103.93 in the Asia session as long-end yields and USD stayed firm, then printed a higher low at 4113.44. The 06:15 bar lifted price off the 4120 asia base to a bounce high at 4135.20, clearing the Asia lower-high sequence and tagging the 61.8% of the 4152–4104 asia fib. Price sits at the EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,120.35, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,135.20, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4138.83 swing high puts the 4152.13 asian high back in play
Rejection at the 4135.20 bounce high / 61.8% asia fib leaves the down-leg intact
Loss of the 4120 asia base and the 4113.44 higher low line exposes the 4103.93 2-month low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 4152.1; higher low at 4113.4 above the 4103.9 low.
Asia printed a fresh two-month low at 4103.9 as record long-end yields and a firm USD weighed. Price held a higher low at 4113.4, and the 06:15 bar broke above the 4120–4126 asia floor box. It is now pressing the 61.8% fib of the 4152–4104 drop near 4133.7, with RSI(14) neutral at 54 into London open and EMA50 (~4134) just overhead.
Support: 4,120.20, 4,113.40, 4,103.90
Resistance: 4,133.70, 4,138.80, 4,152.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4138.8 bounce high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and opens the 4152.1 asian high
Rejection at the 61.8% fib puts the 4120 asia floor back in play
Loss of the 4113.4 higher low reopens the 4103.9 asian low and the $4,100 two-month low zone
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 could move yields and shift this read
Lower highs from 4138.83 after Asian sweep of 4103.93, shelf at 4120.
Asia session ran from the 4152.13 asian high to a 4103.93 asian low, a fresh two-month low, and snapped back. Since then a chain of lower highs from the 4138.83 rebound high has pinned price onto the 4120 shelf, with a new session low at 4113.44 into the run-up to London open. Price is now pressing the lower-high trendline near 4125, about midway through the Asian-range fib, with record long-end yields and a firm USD as the backdrop.
Support: 4,120.20, 4,113.44, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,130.93, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4130.93 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline sequence and opens the 4138.83 rebound high
Failure to hold the 4120 shelf and 4113.44 session low exposes the 4103.93 asian low and the $4,100 two-month low zone
London open is the first test of whether the Asian range (4103.93–4152.13 asian high) holds
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) plus Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could materially shift this yield-driven read
Lower highs since the 4138.83 rebound high, compressing into a 4120–4126 shelf.
Gold swept to a two-month low at the 4103.93 Asian low as record long-end yields kept the USD bid. The rebound stalled at the 4138.83 rebound high, and lower highs since have pressed price into the 4120–4126 range top shelf. Price is now testing the 4116.84 swing low late in the Asia session, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 39 and the Asian drop fib 38.2% at 4122 overhead.
Support: 4,116.84, 4,103.93, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,125.97, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4125.97 range top and the lower-highs trendline breaks the descending sequence
Failure to hold the 4116.84 swing low exposes the 4103.93 asian low and 4100 psych
Reclaiming the 4138.83 rebound high puts the 4152.13 Asian high back in view
London open in ~1h typically expands the Asian range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
05:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near the lows · RSI 42 · price 4,122.18
Lower highs into a 4120–4126 base after an Asia sweep to 4103.93.
Asia session sold off from the 4152 high. A flush to the 4103.93 sweep low was bought back to the 4138.8 bounce high. Since then, a lower high at 4133.8 (61.8% fib of the Asia sell-off) has pressed price into a flat 4120–4126 base, between the base low and base top, near the 38.2% level and below both EMAs. Record long-end yields and a firm USD keep gold heavy into London open.
Support: 4,120.20, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,126.00, 4,133.77, 4,138.83
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120 base low exposes the 4103.93 sweep low and the 4100–4110 two-month low zone
Close above the 4126 base top and the 4133.8 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 4138.8 bounce high above that
London open could resolve the tight 4120–4126 base; the M15 ATR runs near $7.8 per bar
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift yields and this read
Lower highs pressing a flat 4120 base after Asian sweep.
Asia dropped from the 4152.13 Asian high to a 4103.93 sweep low beneath the 4110 two-month low before snapping back. Since then the bounce high at 4138.83 has given way to lower highs at 4133.77, the 61.8% of the Asian drop fib, and then at 4125.97, with price now pressing flat lows at 4120 below yesterday's 4123.30 low. Record long-end yields and a USD near YTD highs keep the tone heavy heading into London open.
Support: 4,120.18, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,125.97, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120 flat lows exposes the 4110 two-month low and the 4103.93 sweep low
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4125.97 lower high breaks the descending sequence and brings the 4138.83 bounce high back into view
London open in ~90 min, then Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC); a fresh 10y break above 5.34% could extend pressure
Lower highs compressing onto 4120 shelf after Asian sweep low.
Asia was rejected at the 4152.1 Asian high and swept Monday's 4123 low down to the 4103.9 Asian low. The rebound stalled at the 4138.8 rebound high, about 72% of the Asian drop. A sequence of lower highs has since pressed price onto the 4120 shelf below both EMAs, RSI(14) 38, with a 5.34% 10y yield and a firm USD weighing on gold.
Support: 4,120.40, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,124.64, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4120 shelf exposes the 4103.9 Asian low and the $4,110 two-month low area
M15 close above the 4124.6 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence; the 4138.8 rebound high is the next cap
Asian high at 4152.1 marks the top of the session range into London open
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
Failed rebound at 61.8% fib; sweep of 4110 reclaimed, now pressing session low.
Rejection at the 4152.13 Asian high started the Asia session slide, which swept the 4110 two-month low to the 4103.93 sweep low before rebounding. The bounce stalled at the 4133.77 lower high, the 61.8% fib of the drop, and lower highs since have pressed price to the 4120.36 session low ahead of London open, with a firm USD and record long-end yields keeping gold heavy.
Support: 4,120.36, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,133.77, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120.36 session low exposes the 4110 2-month low and the 4103.93 sweep low
Close above the 4133.77 lower high / 61.8% fib breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 4138.83 rebound high
Asian high at 4152.13 caps the session range; only a reclaim there negates the Asia drop
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Lower highs since the 4138.83 rebound high, testing Monday's low area.
Late in the Asia session, gold reversed from the 4152.13 asian high. The flush to the 4103.93 asian low drew a sharp rejection, but the rebound stalled at 4138.83 and has printed lower highs back toward the 50% fib near 4128. Price is now pressing the 4120.65 recent low, below Monday's 4123.30 low, with firm USD and 10y yields near 5.34% keeping pressure on the metal.
Support: 4,120.65, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,128.75, 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120.65 recent low exposes the 2-month low at 4110 and the 4103.93 asian low
Close above the lower highs trendline near 4128.75 and the 50% fib breaks the lower-high sequence; the 4138.83 rebound high caps above
London open in ~2h may extend or reject the current asian low test
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Consolidation 4124–4139 after rejected sweep below 4110.
Gold slid from the 4170 London high through NY. A late-Asia sweep through the 2-month low to 4103.93 was rejected hard, and price is now coiling between the 4124 range floor and the 4138.83 bounce high, at the 50% retrace of the 4152–4104 Asian drop. Lower highs from London to the 4152.13 asian high remain intact, with 10y yields near 5.34% and a YTD-high USD capping rebounds.
Support: 4,124.09, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4138.83 bounce high, and then the 4152.13 asian high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4124 range floor re-exposes the 2-month low at 4110 and the 4103.93 sweep low
London open is due shortly; a break of the current consolidation would set the session range
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC), plus ADP at 12:15 UTC, are yield-sensitive risks for this read
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 4124 base after Asia sweep.
Late Asia session: the flush swept under the yday low at 4123.3 and the two-month low area to 4103.93 (asian low), then snapped back, but the rebound high at 4138.83 near the 61.8% of the asian swing fib was sold. Lower highs are now compressing price onto the 4124 base with RSI(14) near 42 and price under both EMAs, consistent with the yield-led USD strength in the digest.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4123.3 yday low puts the 2-month low at 4110 and the 4103.93 asian low back in play
Break of the lower highs line and a close above the 4138.83 rebound high reopens the 4152.13 asian high
London open in under 3h is likely to resolve the compression; ATR near 800 pips
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC), plus US 10y vs 5.34%, could materially shift this read
Sweep and reclaim of 4104 low, now coiling 4124–4133 below the 4139 bounce high.
Late in the Asia session, a spike below the $4,110 two-month low reached the 4103.93 session low and was quickly reclaimed. The bounce stalled at the 4138.83 bounce high, and price is now coiling between the 4124 range low and 4133, near the 50% of the asian drop from the 4152 asian high. Lower highs from yesterday's 4170 London peak remain intact as the yield-led USD bid caps rallies ahead of London open.
Support: 4,124.09, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4139 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline opens the 4152 asian high
Break of the 4124 range low exposes the 4104 session low; a close below it would confirm the sweep has failed
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read via US yields
03:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Monday London · RSI 44 · price 4,131.40
Late in the Asia session, gold was rejected at the 4152 asia high and then swept through the 4110 2-month low to 4103.93. It snapped back above the 4124 ny low, and the 4138.83 rebound hi has since capped price at 4131, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of that drop. The lower-high trendline from Monday's london high is intact, with record-high long-end yields and a YTD-high USD keeping upside limited.
Support: 4,124.00, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4124 ny low turns the sweep into a fresh leg lower toward the 4110 2-month low and the 4103.93 sweep low
M15 close above the 4138.83 rebound hi breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4152 asia high and the lower-high trendline
Volatility is likely to pick up at London open in about 3h
ADP at 12:15 UTC, Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs from 4170; sweep of 4104 reclaimed, now mid-range.
The Asia session faded from the 4152.13 asia high and broke Monday's 4123.30 prior low. A sweep to 4103.93, below the $4,110 two-month low, snapped back to a 4138.83 bounce high. Price is now parked near the 50% of that drop around 4128, under both EMAs, with lower highs from the 4170.34 prior high intact as 10y yields near 5.34% keep gold capped.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4123.30 prior low reopens the 4103.93 sweep low
Close above the 4138.83 bounce high brings the 4152.13 asia high and the lower highs line into play
London open in ~4h; ADP, Williams and Bowman land during NY hours and, with the 10y yield near 5.34%, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4168.57; Asia sweep of prior low reclaimed, holding mid-range.
Mid-Asia session, a spike lower took out Monday's NY prior low at 4123.30 and briefly pierced the $4,110 two-mo low to a 4103.93 session low. Price then reclaimed to a 4138.83 rebound high and now sits near the 50% of the asia drop fib (~4128), below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral at 45. Lower highs from 4168.57 to the 4152.13 asia high keep the intraday sequence pointed down, consistent with 10y yields near 5.34% and a YTD-high USD weighing on gold.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 prior low reopens the 4110 two-mo low and the 4103.93 session low
Close above the 4138.83 rebound high challenges the lower-highs trendline near 4150 and the 4152.13 asia high
Only a move through 4152.13 toward the 4170.34 prior high would break the lower-highs sequence
ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC, plus Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 UTC, could shift yields and this read during NY hours
Lower highs from 4170; break below 4110 2-month low reversed.
Late in the Asia session, gold rejected the 4152 asian high and swept through the 4110 2-month low to a 4103.93 sweep low. The drop was bought back to a 4138.8 rebound high, and price now sits near 4130, around the 50% fib of that leg, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 45. The lower-highs line from yesterday's 4170 prior high is intact as 5.3%+ 10y yields and a YTD-high USD cap the metal.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,138.83, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4123.3 prior low reopens the 4110 2-month low and the 4103.9 sweep low
Acceptance above the 4138.8 rebound high puts the 4152 asian high and the lower-highs line back in play
London open within the hour may set the session range off the Asian sweep
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Downtrend, lower low printed in Asia · RSI 35 · price 4,121.88
Asian high rejected, Monday range floor broken.
Late Asia session: the early pop to the 4152 asian high was rejected, and price slid through the asian low at 4133 and the 4123–4124 monday low. A 02:30 UTC wick then briefly pierced the 4110 2-month low down to the 4103.93 spike low before recovering to 4121, with record 10y yields and a YTD-high USD weighing. RSI(14) is near 35 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,124.00, 4,133.20, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4124 monday low would turn the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 4110 2-month low exposes the 4103.93 spike low again
Asian low at 4133 is the first cap on any rebound; the 4152 asian high caps the session structure
ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC, Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
02:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since London top · RSI 37 · price 4,126.17
Asia spike rejected; price at session low testing prior-day low.
Late Asia session: the spike to the 4152 asia high was rejected and fully unwound. Price now sits at the session low near 4125, pressing Monday's NY prior-day low at 4123.30, with lower highs intact since the 4170 london high. USD at YTD highs on 10y yields near 5.34% keeps rallies capped. RSI(14) is 37, not yet oversold.
Support: 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,133.18, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 prior-day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the 4133 asia pivot, then a break of the lower-highs trendline near the 4152 asia high, would neutralise the downtrend read
Fib 50–61.8% of the asia drop (4138.5–4141) is the zone where the rejection read gets tested on any bounce
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
02:17 UTC
Heavy, lower highs since Monday London · RSI 41 · price 4,130.64
Asia spike rejected, pressing Asian low above prior low.
The Asia session spike to the 4152.13 Asian high was rejected and fully unwound to the 4128 Asian low. That extends the lower-highs sequence from Monday's 4170.34 prior high, as multi-decade-high yields and a YTD-high USD keep gold capped below 4150. Price sits just above Monday's 4123.30 prior low, with RSI(14) at 41 and the 4140 round number overhead.
Support: 4,128.01, 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,140.00, 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.30 prior low breaks Monday's range floor and exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the 4140 round number and the lower-highs line would neutralise the post-spike rejection
London open could set the next range test at the Asian low or Asian high
Williams 13:05 UTC, Bowman 14:45 UTC and ADP 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Asian spike to 4152 fully reversed; price back at session low, above Monday's 4123 day low.
Asia session pushed to a 4152.1 session high, right at the 61.8% fib of Monday's 4170–4123 drop, then fully reversed back to the 4129 session low, below both EMAs. Monday's NY lows near the 4123.3 day low sit just underneath. The $4,140 pivot keeps capping price as 10y yields near 5.34% and a YTD-high USD weigh.
Support: 4,129.00, 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,140.00, 4,152.10, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4123.3 day low breaks Monday's floor and exposes the 4110 2-month low
Reclaim of the 4140 pivot and a close above the 4152.1 session high would break the descending trendline from Monday's 4170 prior high and negate the rejection
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could move yields and shift this read
01:47 UTC
Range, rejected at the top · RSI 42 · price 4,133.37
Asia spike above the range top failed; price back near session low.
Early Asia session saw a spike through the 4145 range top to a 4152.13 session high, at the 61.8% retracement of yesterday's 4170–4123 drop. Supply capped the move and the whole leg reversed to the 4131 session low. This matches the digest's read of gold capped near $4,140–4,150 as record US yields and a firm USD weigh.
Support: 4,131.31, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,152.13
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4131.31 session low exposes yesterday's 4123.30 prior low
Reclaim of the 4145 range top would neutralise the false break, with 4152 session high above
ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could expand range beyond the ~5.7 ATR
Asian range 4133–4152; spike above 4150 fully reversed, higher low vs Monday's 4123.
Early Asia pushed to 4152.1 (asia high) but supply capped it above 4150, and the 01:15 UTC bar gave back the whole move to 4135. Price now sits on rising support from Monday's 4123.3 NY low, just above the 4133.2 asia low, with the USD at YTD highs and 10y yields near 5.34% weighing on gold.
Support: 4,133.20, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,141.00, 4,152.10, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4133.2 asia low and rising support exposes Monday's 4123.3 prior low
Reclaim of ema20 (~4141) and then the 4152.1 asia high would neutralise the rejection; 4170.3 prior high is the next level above
ADP at 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
01:17 UTC
Recovering from NY low, early-Asia push stalling · RSI 56 · price 4,146.50
Asian range 4133–4145 broken higher; pullback from 4152 session high.
Early Asia broke the overnight 4133–4145 range with a single 00:45 UTC impulse to the 4152 session high, and price is now easing back toward the range top near the 38.2% of that leg. Lows have stepped up from the 4123 prior low after Monday's NY selloff. The digest's ~$4,140 cap is now being tested from above, with 10y yields near 5.34% still the dominant drag.
Support: 4,145.30, 4,133.20, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,152.10, 4,170.30
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4145 range top negates the break and reopens the 4133 session low
Clearance of the 4152 session high exposes the 4170 prior high from London
Loss of the rising lows line and 4123 prior low turns the recovery into a lower-low sequence
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Asia range break above 4145, higher low at 4133 vs Monday's 4123 NY low.
Early Asia session: gold lifted off the 4133 session low and cleared the 4145 asia cap in one bar, stalling at the 4152 session high, which sits on the 61.8% fib of Monday's 4170–4123 drop. RSI(14) is at 64 and not stretched. Price is pressing above the 4140–4150 cap flagged in the digest despite 10y yields near 5.34%. A rising lows line from the 4123 ny low holds beneath.
Support: 4,145.29, 4,133.18, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,152.13, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4152 session high and the 61.8% fib opens the path to the 4170 prior high
M15 close back below the 4145 asia cap turns the range break into a false break
Loss of the 4133 session low breaks the rising lows line and exposes the 4123 ny low
ADP at 12:15 UTC, Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 could shift yields, the dominant driver here
00:47 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since Monday's 4170 top · RSI 49 · price 4,140.12
Higher lows from the 4123 monday low pressing a flat 4145 cap.
Early Asia session. Gold is inside a 4133–4145 Asian range, with the 4145 asian high, near the 38.2–50% fib of Monday's 4170–4123 drop, rejecting the 00:30 bar's probe again. Lows have stepped up from the 4123 monday low along a higher-low trendline. Yields near 5.34% and a USD at its YTD high are keeping rebounds shallow.
Support: 4,133.18, 4,123.30, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,148.33, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4145 asian high and the 4148 ny swing hi clears the fib 50% cap and opens the path toward the 4170 monday high
Loss of the 4133 asian low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4123 monday low, then the 4110 2-month low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) today, plus ADP at 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read via yields
00:33 UTC
Sideways, below EMA20 and EMA50 after the NY selloff · RSI 50 · price 4,138.94
Asian range 4133–4145 inside Monday's 4123–4170 span, lower highs since NY.
Early Asia session is ranging 4133–4145 after Monday's NY drop from 4166 to the 4123.30 prior low, as 5.34% 10y yields and a YTD-high USD outweighed the soft NFP. Price sits at the 38.2% fib of the NY drop, and the asian high at 4145.29 was rejected near the 50% level, under a lower-highs line from the 4148.33 swing high. RSI(14) is flat at 50 and ATR is roughly $3.6.
Support: 4,133.18, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,148.33
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4145.29 asian high and the lower-highs line opens the 4148.33 swing high and the 61.8% fib near 4150
Failure to hold the 4133.18 asian low exposes the 4123.30 prior low
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift this read via yields and USD
00:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, early Asia drift lower · RSI 41 · price 4,136.00
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4145.29 session high.
Asia session is stepping lower from the 4145.29 session high, with lower highs capping each bounce and a session low at 4133.18. Price is back under the $4,140 cap flagged in the digest, with record 10y yields and a YTD-high USD weighing. The monday low at 4123.30 was swept and rejected during NY hours and is the next reference below.
Support: 4,133.18, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,141.84, 4,145.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4133.18 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4123.30 monday low
Reclaim of the 4141.84 lower high, then 4145.29 session high, breaks the lower-highs sequence
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read
Tuesday Asia session building a 4133.56–4145.29 range below a falling lower-high line.
Monday's London push to the 4170.34 day high was rejected. NY then ran briefly below the prior Asian range to the 4123.30 day low as ISM prices paid hit 74 and US 10Y yields reached 5.34%, before price reclaimed the level in a false break. Early Tuesday Asia is drifting inside 4133.56–4145.29, capped by the lower-highs line and the 38.2–50% zone of the day range fib, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,133.56, 4,123.30
Resistance: 4,145.29, 4,148.33, 4,170.34
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4133.56 asia low exposes a retest of the 4123.30 day low
Close above the 4145.29 asia high and the lower-highs line near 4142 breaks the lower-high sequence, with 4148.33 the next lower high
Day high at 4170.34 marks the top of the session's failed London extension
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) Tuesday, plus the 10Y yield against 5.34%, could materially shift this read