XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 7 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Rebound from the NY flush stalling, sideways · RSI 55 · price 4,111.21
Lower high at 4126.92 after the 4066.52 low; tight Asian range 4103–4114.
Gold flushed to the 4066.52 NY low as yields spiked, then retraced to a 4126.92 NY high before fading into a 4100.37 swing low as the hawkish Minutes landed. Early Asia is compressing between the 4103.41 Asian low and the 4114.19 Asian high, holding above the 38.2% fib near 4104, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.19, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
Close above the 4114.19 Asian high reopens the 4126.92 NY high
Loss of the 4103.41 Asian low and the 4100 swing low puts the 50% fib near 4097 and the 4066.52 NY low back in view
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could break the Asian range
Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
Asian range 4103–4114 inside the 4100–4127 post-recovery band.
Early Asia session is holding a 4103–4114 range after the NY rebound from the 4066.5 drop low on the hawkish FOMC Minutes stalled at the 4126.9 ny high. Price sits near the 38.2% recovery fib, capped by a lower highs sequence, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price between the EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,103.40, 4,100.40, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,114.10, 4,126.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.4 swing low breaks the recovery fib 38.2% and exposes the 50% near 4096.7
Close above the 4114.1 asian high clears the lower highs line and reopens the 4126.9 ny high
4066.5 drop low is the next structural floor if 4100 gives way
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break the Asian range
Lower highs since 4126.92, compressing in 4100–4115 band.
Gold flushed to 4066.52 around 12:30 UTC as yields and the USD advanced, then rebounded to the NY high at 4126.92 as yields faded after the hawkish Minutes. Since then it has printed lower highs into a 4100–4115 band, and early Asia sits inside an asian high/asian low range of 4114.06–4103.41. Price is pressing the lower-highs trendline near 4111 with RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37, 4,096.72
Resistance: 4,114.06, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4114.06 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 4119.95 lower high, then the 4126.92 ny high
Failure to hold the 4103.41 asian low and the 4100.37 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 4096.72
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
23:05 UTC
Sideways after NY rebound, lower highs forming · RSI 53 · price 4,107.44
Lower highs from 4126.92 over a 4100–4114 base.
Gold flushed to the 4066.52 day low early in NY as yields surged, then rebounded to the 4126.92 NY high. Price was rejected there ahead of the FOMC Minutes, and the 4119.95 post-Minutes lower high kept the rebound capped. In the early Asia session price is pinned on EMA20 near 4107, with the 4100.37 swing low and 4103.41 Asia low holding around the 38.2% fib of the NY rebound.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.06, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4114.06 asia high breaks the lower-high trendline, with the 4119.95 lower high and the 4126.92 ny high next overhead
Failure to hold the 4100.37 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4089.60 and the 4066.52 day low
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Compressing 4100–4114 under a lower-highs line after the rebound high.
The NY-morning flush to the 4066.52 day low reversed as yields faded around the hawkish Minutes, but the rebound was rejected at 4126.92 and has printed lower highs since. Early Asia is holding a 4100–4114 range near the 38.2% rebound fib (4103.85), with RSI(14) ~43 and price under both EMAs.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.50, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low exposes the 50% rebound fib at 4096.7, then the 4082.44 pullback low
Close above the 4114.5 range top and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 4126.92 rebound high
Waller 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
22:33 UTC
Rebound off the 4066 low stalling, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,106.29
Lower highs under 4114, swing low floor at 4100.37.
Gold flushed to a 4066.52 day low into the NY open as yields and the USD pushed higher, then recovered to a 4126.92 spike high that was rejected around the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Since then a chain of lower highs, latest at 4114.06, has pressed price toward the 4100.37 swing low. Early Asia session trade sits near the 38.2% level of the 4066–4127 fib, with RSI(14) around 42 and price just under EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,089.60, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.06, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4089.6, then the 4066.52 day low
M15 close above the 4114 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4126.92 spike high
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) Thursday could materially shift this read via yields
Gold flushed to a 4066.5 day low in early NY as yields climbed, then recovered to a 4126.9 recovery high as yields eased. Through the hawkish FOMC Minutes it compressed into lower highs between the 4100 NY low and the 4114.6 swing high. Early Asia session is pinned to EMA20 near 4108 with RSI(14) at 48, holding above the 38.2% level (4103.9) of the recovery fib.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,089.60, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.60, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100 NY low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4089.6 and then the 4066.5 day low
M15 close above the 4114.6 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4126.9 recovery high
Waller at 08:30 UTC and long-end Treasury yield moves could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Rebound from day low stalling, lower highs forming · RSI 47 · price 4,110.71
Consolidation 4100–4127 after a V-shaped recovery; highs capped near 4113.
Gold flushed through $4,100 to a $4,066.52 day low in early NY as yields and the USD pushed higher. It then recovered to a $4,126.92 NY high at 17:00 UTC, where it met rejection. Since then a sequence of lower highs near $4,113 has compressed price above the $4,100.37 swing low, holding the 38.2–50% zone of the rebound fib, with RSI(14) ~47 and price pinned on flat EMA20/EMA50 into the daily close.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.21, 4,126.92, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
Close below the 4100.37 swing low breaks the rebound fib 50% and exposes the 4082–4087 post-low base, then the 4066.52 day low
Clearing the lower highs line near 4113 reopens the 4126.92 NY high; above that the 4139.47 London high is the next cap
Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC Thu could materially shift this read; gold is tracking long-end yields closely
Lower highs inside 4100–4127 band after sharp NY-open leg lower.
Asia and London ground lower from 4170, then the bond sell-off drove a sharp first-hour-of-NY flush to the 4066.52 day low. Price recovered to a 4126.92 session high in late NY but met rejection there, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes were absorbed without breaking the range. Since then lower highs have formed, with a late bounce off the 4100.37 swing low near the 38.2% of the recovery fib; RSI(14) is neutral around 47 and price is pinned near EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low opens the 50% recovery fib near 4097 and then the 4066.52 day low
M15 close above the 4119.95 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4126.92 session high back in play
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) on Thursday could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs off 4126.9 spike high, compressing 4100–4113.
Gold bled from 4169 through Asia and London. A NY flush then hit the 4066.5 session low, and the bounce came as yields faded after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. That bounce met rejection at the 4126.9 spike high and has since printed lower highs. Late NY trade is compressing between the 4100.4 swing low, near the 38.2% fib, and the 4113.2 lower high, with price pinned on EMA20/EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 47.
Support: 4,100.40, 4,082.40, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,113.20, 4,126.90, 4,139.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4113.2 lower high and the lower-highs trendline invalidates the compression read and puts the 4126.9 spike high back in focus
Failure to hold the 4100.4 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 4096.7 and the 4082.4 pullback low
A recovery through 4126.9 would bring the 4139.5 pre-drop hi into view
Thu Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields
V-rebound off 4066.52, higher low at 4100.37, coiling below 4113.
Gold lost the Asian range low at 4127 during London, then flushed to a 4066.52 session low early in NY as yields climbed, before V-reversing to a 4126.92 spike high. Post-Minutes trade faded into a higher low at the 4100.37 swing low, just above the rebound fib 50%. Late NY is now coiling between 4100 and the 4113 micro high, RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,096.72, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.21, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the fib 50% at 4096.72 in play
Close above the 4113.21 micro high reopens the 4126.92 spike high and Asian range low
Loss of 4096.72 exposes a retest of the 4066.52 session low
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) Thursday could materially shift this read via yields
4100–4120 band below 4126.92 NY high, lower highs off the FOMC high.
The NY-morning flush to the 4066.52 ny low reversed into a recovery that met rejection at the 4126.92 ny high. After the hawkish FOMC Minutes, the 4119.95 fomc high and the 4113.21 minor high have printed lower highs, while the 4100.37 swing low holds just under the 38.2% fib of the recovery. RSI(14) is neutral near 48 into the late NY session.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,096.70, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.21, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low exposes the 4096.70 50% fib, then the 4066.52 ny low
Close above the 4113.21 minor high and the 4119.95 fomc high breaks the lower highs sequence; 4126.92 ny high is the band top
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC Thu could reset this range via yields
Consolidation 4100–4127 after NY flush, lower highs.
Gold flushed from 4124 to a 4066.52 day low into the NY open as yields and USD pushed higher, then recovered to a 4126.92 NY high, where it met rejection ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Post-Minutes trade has printed lower highs at the 4120 post-FOMC high and 4113 while holding the 4100 swing low near the 38.2% of the post-flush fib. Price sits on EMA20, below EMA50, RSI(14) neutral near 49.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.21, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100 swing low and 38.2% post-flush fib (4103.9) exposes the 4082 pullback low, then the 4066.52 day low
M15 close above the 4113 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4120 post-FOMC high and 4126.92 NY high
Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
20:33 UTC
Recovery from day low, ranging below session high · RSI 61 · price 4,112.46
4100–4127 range in late NY session, 4100 retest held, lower-high line broken.
Gold rebounded from the 4066.52 day low set in the 12:15 UTC USD and yields flush. It is now holding a 4100–4127 range, after the FOMC Minutes spike was rejected at the 4126.92 session high. The post-Minutes pullback held the 4100 psych level near the 44% recovery fib, and the late NY bounce has cleared the lower-high line, with price pressing toward the 4119.95 minutes high.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,119.95, 4,126.92, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4100 psych exposes the 4082.44 swing low and the 4066.52 day low
Close above the 4126.92 session high breaks the post-Minutes range, with the 4139.47 london high next
Rejection at the 4119.95 minutes high and a slip back under the lower-high line would reframe the bounce as a false break
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4126.92 NY high, compressing above 4100.
Gold dropped from 4124 to the 4066.52 day low through the London-NY transition as USD and yields climbed, then rebounded to a 4126.92 NY high. After the FOMC Minutes, rejection at the 4119.95 minutes high and a 4113.19 lower high squeezed price toward the 4100 psych, where buyers stepped in late in NY. Price is holding about a third of the way back down the rebound fib, with RSI(14) near 48 and price just under EMA20/EMA50.
Support: 4,100.37, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.19, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100 psych breaks the late-NY floor and exposes the 4082.44 swing low, then the 4066.52 day low
Failure to hold the 50% rebound fib near 4096.7 would retrace most of the post-low bounce
Recovery above the 4113.19 lower high and the 4119.95 minutes high breaks the post-Minutes sequence, with the 4126.92 ny high above
Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) Thursday could materially shift this read
Lower highs off 4126.92 rebound high, pressing 4100 psych.
The rebound from the 4066.52 low ran into rejection at the 4126.92 rebound high and the 4119.95 minutes high as yields reversed after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Late NY has printed lower highs back into a retest of the 4100 psych level, which coincides with the fib 38.2% near 4104. RSI(14) sits near 45, with price below EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,096.70, 4,082.44
Resistance: 4,110.45, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4100 psych exposes the fib 50% at 4096.70, then the 4082.44 swing low
Close above the 4110.45 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens 4119.95–4126.92
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:48 UTC
Downtrend, NY recovery fading · RSI 39 · price 4,103.40
Lower highs off 4126.9 spike, pressing 4099–4104 support.
Gold broke below the Asian range during London, then flushed from 4124 to a 4066.5 day low early in NY on the yields-and-USD impulse. The NY recovery stalled with a rejection at the 4126.9 spike high near the 10y auction. Since the FOMC Minutes, the 4120 minutes high has capped a run of lower highs, and price sits on the 38.2% recovery fib near 4104, just above the 4099 swing low and below EMA20/50.
Support: 4,099.00, 4,082.40, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,113.20, 4,120.00, 4,126.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4099 swing low and 4100 psych exposes the 50% recovery fib at 4096.7, then the 4082.4 pullback low
Close above the 4113.2 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 4120 minutes high and 4126.9 spike high
Loss of the 4066.5 day low would extend the down leg into thin late-NY/Asia trade
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since NY high, testing 38.2% of recovery.
Gold bled lower from 4166 through Asia and London, then flushed to 4066.52 in early NY as yields spiked, a brief false break of the 4100 psych area before a recovery to the 4126.92 NY high. The FOMC Minutes produced a rejection at the 4120 minutes high, and the lower-high sequence has pulled price back to the 4103 minutes low, which sits on the 38.2% level of the recovery fib.
Support: 4,103.01, 4,100.00, 4,082.44
Resistance: 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4103 minutes low and 4100 psych exposes the 50% recovery fib at 4096.7, then the 4082 swing low
Reclaim above the 4120 minutes high breaks the lower-high sequence and reopens the 4126.92 NY high
Late NY into Asia session thins out; Minutes reaction still being digested
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4126.9 rebound high, testing 38.2% fib.
Rising yields and a firm USD drove a NY flush to the 4,066.5 session low, briefly below 4,100 psych, before the NY rebound topped at the 4,126.9 ny high. The FOMC Minutes bar capped at 4,120, and a chain of lower highs since has price back at the 38.2% fib near 4,103 into the late NY session.
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4,100 psych reopens the 61.8% fib at 4,089.6 and the 4,066.5 session low
Close above the 4,120 minutes high breaks the lower highs sequence and puts the 4,126.9 ny high back in play
Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (Thu 12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4066.5, capped at 4126.9, compressing 4107–4115.
The 12:15 UTC flush to the 4066.5 flush low came as US yields and the USD extended. The NY rebound built higher lows up to a rejection at the 4126.9 swing high ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 4107.2 range low and the 4115.1 prior high, sitting on the rising trendline from the 4082 higher low, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
Support: 4,107.20, 4,098.80, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,115.10, 4,126.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4107.2 range low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 4098.8 higher low near the 50% flush-rebound fib (4096.7)
Close above the 4115.1 prior high reopens the 4126.9 swing high; rejection there again keeps the range intact
Loss of 4098.8 puts the 4066.5 flush low back in focus
Minutes digestion is ongoing; Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and jobless claims (12:30 UTC) Thu could materially shift this read
Tight consolidation above the 4107 minutes low after the FOMC Minutes pop failed below the 4126.92 spike high..
Gold bled lower from the Asian range near 4170 into a 12:15 UTC flush to the 4066.52 day low as yields and the USD extended. It then retraced to the 4126.92 spike high during NY hours. The FOMC Minutes drew only a capped pop to the 4119.95 minutes high, and price is now compressing just above the minutes low with lower highs and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 4,107.19, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4107.19 minutes low exposes the 4100 round number and the 38.2% recovery fib near 4103.9
M15 close above the 4119.95 minutes high and the lower highs line reopens the 4126.92 spike high
Failure at 4100 brings the 4066.52 day low back into view; the digest flags CTA selling as an extension risk below it
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) are the next scheduled catalysts for this read
18:32 UTC
Rebound off NY low, momentum stalling · RSI 53 · price 4,110.53
V-recovery capped by lower high at 4119.95.
The NY session flush to the 4066.52 ny low, driven by the yield and USD surge, fully retraced into a 4126.92 spike high that was rejected. Price is now consolidating near 4110, between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the rebound fib, with a lower high at 4119.95 above and the 4108.60 swing low below.
Support: 4,108.60, 4,103.85, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4108.60 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib at 4103.85
Close above the 4119.95 lower high reopens the 4126.92 spike high
FOMC Minutes could materially shift this read; a hawkish read in the digest's scenario puts the 4066.52 ny low back in focus
Rising lows off 4066.52 day low, capped by lower high under 4126.92 spike high.
Gold flushed about $58 from 4124 to a 4066.52 day low between 12:15 and 12:45 UTC as yields and the USD extended higher, then clawed back the move through NY hours on a chain of rising lows. The 17:00 spike to 4126.92 retested the breakdown origin above the fib 100% level and was rejected. The FOMC Minutes bar printed a lower high at 4119.95, leaving price near the 78.6% fib (~4112) and just under EMA50.
Support: 4,108.60, 4,101.96, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the rising lows line near 4108.60 breaks the NY recovery structure; the 4101.96 higher low is next
Close above the 4119.95 lower high reopens the 4126.92 spike high and the fib 100% zone
FOMC Minutes reaction is still developing; a hawkish read keeps the 4066.52 day low in play
18:05 UTC
Rebound off NY low, momentum stalling · RSI 51 · price 4,110.05
Higher lows from 4066.52, capped by rejected 4126.92 spike high.
NY session flushed to a 4066.52 ny low as yields and the USD climbed, then rebuilt higher lows back to the 61.8% retracement of the london high–ny low drop. The 17:00 UTC push to a 4126.92 spike high was rejected. Price is now pinned near 4110, between the 4115 prior highs (ema50 overhead) and the 4107 swing low, with RSI(14) flat at 51.
Support: 4,107.40, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,115.00, 4,126.92, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC fall on the current bar and could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4107 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4100 psych level
Acceptance above the 4115 prior highs reopens the 4126.92 spike high; a break there opens the path to the 4139.47 london high
Loss of 4100 psych puts the 4066.52 ny low back in play
HH/HL rebound off 4066.5 rejected at 4127, now back under its rising trendline.
Gold flushed to a 4066.5 session low at the London-NY transition as yields and the USD climbed. The NY rebound built higher lows into 4126.9, but supply capped it at the old asian low near 4127. Price has slipped back under the ema50 at about 4116 and the recovery trendline, and now sits on the 23.6% of the 4066-4127 fib.
Support: 4,107.40, 4,098.80, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,116.00, 4,127.00, 4,139.50
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, minutes away, could materially shift this read
Loss of the 4107.4 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 38.2% fib near 4104, then the 4098.8 higher low
M15 close back above the 4116 ema50 and the 4127 asian low reopens the 4139.5 london high
Break of the 4066.5 session low resumes the day's lower-low structure
17:33 UTC
Down on the session, NY rebound stalling · RSI 61 · price 4,115.72
Higher lows off 4066.5, failed push above pre-flush high.
Asia and London ground lower from 4170. An early-NY flush on rising yields printed a 4066.5 session low, and NY has since rebuilt on higher lows. The 17:00 UTC spike to 4126.9 cleared the pre-flush high, failed near the 78.6% fib and slipped back to the ema50 around 4116.
Support: 4,107.40, 4,099.00, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,116.30, 4,126.90, 4,139.50
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~30 min) could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 4107.4 higher low breaks the NY higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4099 ny pivot
Acceptance above the 4126.9 spike high opens the 4139.5 london high
Failure to hold the 4099 ny pivot puts the 4066.5 session low back in focus
HH/HL chain off the 4066.5 day low, stalling under the spike high.
Gold flushed to the 4066.52 day low between 12:15 and 12:45 UTC as yields and USD extended. It then built higher lows along a rising trendline through NY hours, the latest at 4107.4. After London close, the 17:00 spike was rejected at 4126.9, the spike high that sits on the Asian low, with RSI(14) cooling to about 59.
Support: 4,107.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,126.92, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4126.9 spike high opens the 4139.5 london high
Break below the 4107.4 higher low and the rising trendline ends the rebound structure, exposing the 4066.5 day low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off the 4066.5 session low, now stalling under 4115.
The 12:15 UTC breakdown from the 4110–4124 shelf ran to a 4066.5 session low as yields and USD extended. The rebound has since built higher lows and retraced roughly 75% of the drop (see the drop retrace fib), but has stalled under the 4115.1 rebound high. Price is now sitting on the rebound trendline from 4082 with FOMC Minutes due within the hour.
Support: 4,107.40, 4,098.80, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,115.10, 4,124.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4107.4 swing low breaks the rebound trendline and the higher-low chain
Loss of the 4098.8 higher low reopens the 4066.5 session low
Close above the 4115.1 rebound high puts the 4124.3 pre-drop high in play, the origin of the breakdown
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher-low chain off 4066.52 within broader lower highs.
Gold flushed to a 4066.52 session low early in NY hours as yields and USD extended. The flag-like rebound since has retraced about 74% of the drop from the 4124.25 pre-drop high and is stalling under the 4115 recovery high, testing its rising trendline with RSI(14) near 58.
Support: 4,102.00, 4,095.40, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,115.11, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
An M15 close below the 4102 higher low breaks the higher-low chain and points back to the fib 50% near 4095
A close above the 4115 recovery high opens the path to the 4124 pre-drop high
Loss of the 4066.52 session low would extend the downtrend leg
Higher-low chain off 4066.52 session low, highs capping near 4115.
A late-London liquidation at 12:15 UTC, as USD and yields extended, took gold from the 4124 drop origin to a 4066.52 session low. NY has since built higher lows at 4082 and 4102 along rising support and is pressing the 4115 rebound high, just above the 61.8% retrace of the london high fib, with RSI(14) near 55 and price between EMA20 and EMA50.
Support: 4,101.96, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,115.11, 4,124.25, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4115 rebound high opens the 4124 drop origin, near the 78.6% retrace; the 4139 london high sits above
Close below rising support and the 4102 higher low breaks the rebound chain and exposes the 4082 swing low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1.5h) could materially shift this read; a break of the 4066.52 session low would extend the selloff
16:18 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in NY · RSI 58 · price 4,110.93
Higher lows off session low, stalling at 78.6% retrace.
The 12:15 UTC flush on firmer USD and yields broke the London low and printed a 4066.52 session low. NY has since retraced to the 78.6% fib of the drop near 4112. That bounce built an hl shelf at 4102 beneath a 4114.55 swing high, with price pressing EMA50 from below.
Support: 4,102.00, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.55, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4114.55 swing high opens the 4124 breakdown pt
Loss of the 4102 hl shelf exposes the 4082 swing low, then the 4066.52 session low
16:04 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce stalling · RSI 51 · price 4,106.76
Higher lows off 4066.5, capped in 4098.8–4113 band.
Gold lost the Asian range low through London, then a yield- and USD-driven flush at 12:15 UTC printed the 4066.5 session low. NY hours have built higher lows into a tight 4098.8–4113.1 band, with the bounce high stalling near the 78.6% retracement of the selloff fib and price sitting on the rising-lows trendline.
Support: 4,098.80, 4,082.40, 4,066.50
Resistance: 4,113.10, 4,124.30, 4,139.50
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read; a hawkish tilt puts the 4066.5 session low back in focus
M15 close below the 4098.8 range floor breaks the rising-lows trendline and exposes the 4082.4 higher low
M15 close above the 4113.1 bounce high clears the 78.6% selloff fib level, opening the 4124.3 pre-drop hi, with the 4139.5 london high beyond
15:48 UTC
Downtrend, NY bounce retracing the flush · RSI 51 · price 4,108.64
Higher lows off 4066.52, testing 4109–4113 below drop high.
London broke below the Asian low and stalled at 4109. Rising USD and long-end yields then drove a 12:15 UTC flush from the 4124 drop high to the 4066.52 intraday low. NY has since printed higher lows back through the 61.8% fib of the drop. Price is now retesting 4109–4113, just under the 78.6% level, with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and price below EMA50.
Support: 4,102.20, 4,098.76, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,113.06, 4,124.25, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4113.06 bounce high opens the 4124.25 drop high, with the 4139 london high beyond
Loss of the 4098.76 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline; the 61.8% fib at 4102 is the first test
Break of the 4066.52 intraday low resumes the downtrend leg
Lower highs since 4183.89; post-flush higher lows capped at 4108.72.
Gold flushed about $57 in the London-NY transition to a 4066.52 session low as USD and Treasury yields pushed higher, then retraced past the 61.8% level of the drop fib. Mid-NY session, price is coiling on a higher lows line just under the 4108.72 rebound high, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price only marginally above EMA20.
Support: 4,098.76, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,108.72, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4108.72 rebound high opens a retest of the 4124.25 flush origin
Break of the higher lows line near 4098.76 exposes the 4082.44 swing low, then the 4066.52 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2.5h) could materially shift this read
15:18 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 49 · price 4,106.23
HH/HL recovery off 4066.52 day low, capped under 4108.72.
The 12:15 UTC flush from the 4124.25 drop origin to a 4066.52 day low, as USD and Treasury yields extended, has since recovered past the 61.8% drop retracement. NY session price is building a flag-like chain of higher lows along the higher-low line under the 4108.72 rebound high. RSI(14) is back near 49, with price sitting on EMA20 and below EMA50.
Support: 4,099.14, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,108.72, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4108.72 rebound high opens 4124.25 drop origin; acceptance there negates the flag read
Break of 4099.14 higher low and the higher-low line puts 4082.44 swing low back in play
Loss of 4066.52 day low confirms downtrend resumption
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~2.75h) could materially shift this read
15:05 UTC
Downtrend, corrective NY rebound · RSI 44 · price 4,102.27
Lower highs from 4183.9 into 4066.5 flush low; higher lows on the rebound.
Gold slid from Asia through London, then dropped $57 in the London-NY transition to the 4066.5 flush low as USD and yields firmed. The NY rebound has printed higher lows at 4082 and 4093 but is stalling at the 61.8% fib of the flush, capped by the 4108.7 rebound high just under the broken London low.
Support: 4,093.27, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,108.72, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4108.7 rebound high reopens the 4124 breakdown level
Failure to hold the 4093 pullback low and 4082 higher low exposes the 4066.5 flush low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
14:48 UTC
Downtrend, NY rebound in progress · RSI 47 · price 4,104.45
The day-long slide from the 4183.89 Tuesday high ended in a USD/yields-led flush at 12:15 UTC, ahead of the NY open, to a 4066.52 swing low. NY hours have since printed a higher low at 4082.44 and recovered past the 61.8% fib of the drop. Price is now retesting the broken 4109 area just under the 4108.72 rebound high, sitting on the ema20 with the 4100 round number as the pivot.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,108.72, 4,112.00, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4108.72 rebound high opens the 78.6% fib near 4112 and the 4124.25 pre-drop high
Break of the rebound trendline and the 4100 round number exposes the 4082.44 higher low; failure there reopens the 4066.52 swing low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4183.89; higher lows since 4066.52, capped under 4104.
Gold extended its slide from the 4183.89 Asian-session high through London. A sharp drop around the London-NY transition (12:15 UTC, 4124→4081) then swept below the $4,100 two-month low to a 4066.52 spike low, as firm USD and long-end yields stayed the driver. The rebound has printed a higher low at 4093.27 but is stalling at the 4103.74 rebound high, near the 61.8% retrace of the drop and just under ema20 (~4104).
Support: 4,093.27, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,103.74, 4,109.13, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4103.74 rebound high and the 4109.13 london low would retest the 4124.25 pre-drop high
Failure to hold the 4093.27 higher low exposes the 4082.44 swing low
A break below the 4066.52 spike low resumes the downtrend
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR near $9.6 per bar
Lower highs from 4183.89; range break below 4109, higher low at 4082 on the rebound.
A flush in the run-up to the NY open (12:15 UTC) broke the 4109–4124 London range and the $4,100 two-month-low area, printing a 4066.52 session low as USD and long-end yields firmed. The rebound has set a higher low at 4082.44 and is retesting 4100 psych from below. Price is holding the fib 50% at 4095 but stalling under the 61.8% near 4102, and it remains below both EMAs.
Support: 4,095.39, 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,109.13, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above 4109.13 (prior low) puts price back inside the London range and would mark the breakdown as a false break.
Failure at 4100 psych followed by a break of the 4082.44 higher low reopens the 4066.52 session low.
The lower-highs trendline sits near 4116 and the range top at 4124.25. A close above both would invalidate the lower-highs read.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read.
Lower highs since the Asian high; London broke the Asian low, then a 12:15 UTC flush; price now retesting 4100 from below.
London broke the Asian range low near 4127, and the 12:15 UTC sell-off cut through the $4,100 two-month low to a 4066.52 session low as USD and long-end yields firmed. Price has since retraced into the 4100 psych / 50–61.8% sell-off fib zone, still below EMA20, with RSI(14) neutral at 44 and ATR expanded to about $10.
Support: 4,082.44, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,109.13, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
Rejection at 4100 psych and the 61.8% sell-off fib (~4102) keeps the lower-high sequence intact
M15 close back above the 4109 london low would mark the drop under 4100 as a false break
Failure to hold the 4082 swing low reopens the 4066 session low
Only a reclaim of the 4124 pre-drop hi negates the sell-off structure
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asian range top; impulsive break below Tuesday's low, now a shallow pullback under it.
Gold broke below the 4,104 tue low on a single 12:15 UTC bar from 4,123 to 4,080 as yields and the USD firmed. The move printed a 4,066.52 session low before buyers stepped in. The rebound stalled at the 4,098.46 bounce high, inside the 50–61.8% fib of the drop, with RSI(14) near 37 and price still below EMA20.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4,104 tue low and 4,109.13 london low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4,082.44 pullback low re-exposes the 4,066.52 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
13:33 UTC
Downtrend, sharp NY flush then partial rebound · RSI 38 · price 4,091.32
London range low and $4,100 broken; rebound retesting the break from below.
Gold extended its slide from the 4170 Asia high through London. In early NY hours it broke the 4109 london low and the $4,100 area, flushing to the 4066.5 spike low as yields and the USD firmed. The rebound stalled at the 4098.5 rebound high, just above the 50% fib of the 4124 pre-drop hi to 4066.5 move, with price still below $4,100 and EMA20 (~4107); RSI(14) is near 38.
Support: 4,086.77, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,098.46, 4,109.13, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4109 london low reclaims $4,100 and turns the flush into a false break; a move above the 4124 pre-drop hi would erase it.
Rejection at the 4098.5 rebound high and 50% fib keeps the retest-from-below read intact.
Loss of the 4086.8 swing low exposes the 4066.5 spike low.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4.5h) could materially shift this read; ATR(14) has jumped to ~950 pips since the flush.
Lower highs since the Asian high; post-flush bounce retesting broken 4100 from below.
Lower highs from the 4169.93 Asian high fed a steady London grind, then a 12:15 UTC flush in early NY hours broke the 4100 psych floor and Tuesday's low to a 4066.52 session low as the yields-plus-USD squeeze extended. The bounce has printed a higher low at 4086.77 and is stalling at the 50% flush retrace near 4095, just under the broken 4100 psych. RSI(14) has recovered to about 38, and ATR has jumped to roughly 880 pips on the flush.
Support: 4,086.77, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,109.13, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4109 london low and the descending highs line (~4120) would undo the flush read; the 4124 drop origin sits above
Rejection at the 4100 psych / 50% flush retrace plus a break of the 4087 higher low reopens the 4066 session low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4.7h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows from Asia; $4,100 broken, retracing off 4066.52.
Gold ground lower under a descending resistance line through Asia and London, then broke the $4,100 round number in a 43-dollar bar at the London-NY transition as USD and yields firmed into the FOMC Minutes. Price printed a session low at 4066.52 and has rebounded to the 38.2% retracement of the breakdown leg near 4088, still below the london low at 4109.13.
Support: 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,100.00, 4,109.13, 4,124.25
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4100 round number and the 50% breakdown leg fib at 4095 would point to a false break
Loss of the 4066.52 session low extends the lower-low chain
Swing high at 4124.25 tops the breakdown leg and sits near the descending resistance
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
12:47 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive leg lower · RSI 24 · price 4,073.04
Lower highs and lower lows; NY pre-open breakdown through 4100.
The steady grind lower through Asia and London, which made a london low of 4109.13, turned into a ~$50 flush in the run-up to NY open. Price sliced through the broken 4100 support as USD and yields extended ahead of FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) sits near 24, with price stalling just above the 4071.23 session low and the 4089.23 rebound high as first overhead.
Support: 4,071.23, 4,050.00
Resistance: 4,089.23, 4,100.00, 4,109.13
What it said to watch
M15 close back above broken 4100 (50% of the breakdown fib) would turn the move into a false break
Loss of the 4071.23 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4050 psych level
Rebound high at 4089.23 (38.2% breakdown fib) is the first area to watch for rejection or break
Falling highs trendline from 4139 sits above the london low at 4109.13; a reclaim of both negates the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4169.93 Asia high; Asian range low broken in London, 4109.13 low then a small higher low at 4115.08.
Gold broke the Asian range low at 4126.96 in London and slid to a 4109.13 session low as the USD and yields extended their rebound. The bounce stalled at the 4124.25 bounce high, the 50% retrace of the London leg and ema20, keeping the lower highs sequence intact. Price sits near 4117 ahead of the NY open with RSI(14) at 38.
Support: 4,115.08, 4,109.13, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,124.25, 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4124.25 bounce high and ema20 opens the 4126.96 asian low, then the 4139.47 london high
Loss of the 4115.08 higher low re-exposes the 4109.13 session low and the 4100 psych floor
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Asia open; micro higher low at 4115 testing descending trendline.
Gold sold off from the 4169.6 Asia-open high, and London extended it to a 4109.1 session low as USD and yields firmed ahead of the Minutes. Into the London-NY transition, price has carved a higher low at 4115.1 and is pressing the descending trendline and ema20 near 4123. The 4128.8 swing high and the 4139.5 london high, which sits at the 50% fib, cap the retracement.
Support: 4,115.10, 4,109.10, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,128.80, 4,139.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4128.8 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4139.5 london high / 50% fib
Failure at the descending trendline and loss of the 4115.1 higher low return focus to the 4109.1 session low and 4100 psych
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~6h) and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4183.89; London broke below the Asian low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4183.89 peak. The London session broke the 4127 Asian low and extended to a 4109.13 session low, and the bounce capped at 4122.11, short of the 23.6% fib of the drop, as USD and long-end yields firm into the FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) is near 37, soft but not oversold, with price under the lower-highs trendline and the 4139.47 London high.
Support: 4,109.13, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,122.11, 4,127.00, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4122.11 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline challenges the downtrend read
Reclaim of the 4127 asian low would turn it into a retest zone and neutralise the range break
Failure to hold the 4109.13 session low exposes the 4100 psych level
Close above the 4139.47 london high breaks the lower-high chain
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
11:18 UTC
Intraday downtrend, minor bounce off session low · RSI 35 · price 4,119.98
Lower highs/lower lows; Asian range broken lower in London.
London broke the Asian range low at 4126.96 and extended the lower-high chain to a 4109.13 session low. The bounce to 4121 sits below the Asian low and the descending trendline from the Asian high, near the 23.6% fib of the 4184–4109 drop. Firm USD and long-end yields into tonight's FOMC Minutes explain the slide toward the 4100 psych level.
Support: 4,109.13, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4126.96 asian low and the trendline from the Asian high would negate the range break
Break of the 4109.13 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward 4100 psych
Reclaim of the 4139.47 london high, near the 38.2% fib of the 4184–4109 drop, ends the lower-high chain
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, during NY hours, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4183.89; London broke Asian low, holding below it.
Lower highs from yesterday's 4183.89 NY high held through Asia. London broke the 4127 asian low and printed a 4109.13 session low after rejecting at the 4139.47 london high. Mid-London, RSI(14) is lifting to ~35 from the mid-20s on a small bounce, with the 4100 2-month low just below as a firm USD and long-end yields weigh ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,109.13, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,139.47, 4,146.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4127 asian low, which also aligns with the lower-highs trendline, would break the intraday downtrend read
Loss of the 4109.13 session low exposes the 4100 2-month low
A move back to the 4139.47 london high or the fib 50% at 4146.5 tests whether the lower-high chain still caps price
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; NY open comes first
Asian range broken lower in London; lower-high chain from 4139 intact.
Gold carried the Asia slide into mid-London, breaking the Asian low at 4126.96 and printing a session low at 4109.13 as the USD firmed into tonight's FOMC Minutes. Every bounce since the 4139.47 London high has been capped by a lower high, with RSI(14) near 24 and price now about $5–9 above Tuesday's 4104 prior low and the 4100 round number.
Support: 4,109.13, 4,104.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,120.22, 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4120.22 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the trendline
Asian low at 4126.96 sits near the 61.8% fib of the London leg, the first retrace ceiling if price bounces
Failure to hold the 4104 prior low exposes the 4100 round number and two-month floor
London high at 4139.47 caps the session; a reclaim would negate the range break
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since early Asia; London bounce capped at 4139.
Gold has slid in a steady lower-high sequence from ~4170 in early Asia. The London-hour bounce met rejection at the 4139.47 London high, and price is now pinned at the 4115.15 session low with RSI(14) near 29, as firm yields and a bid USD keep pressure on. The 4104 two-month low and 4100 psych sit just below.
Support: 4,115.15, 4,104.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4127 prior low and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence
Acceptance below the 4115 session low exposes the 4104 two-month low and 4100 psych
Reclaim of the 4139 London high needed to neutralise the intraday downtrend
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~8h) and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 4183.89; Asian range broken lower in London.
Gold has made lower highs since yesterday's 4183.89 NY high. Asia sold down to 4126.96, and mid-London broke that Asian low to a 4116.50 session low as the USD firmed on higher yields. RSI(14) is near 29 and price sits under the descending trendline near 4130.
Support: 4,116.50, 4,104.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4116.50 session low exposes the 4104 2-month low and the 4100 round number
Reclaim of the 4126.96 asian low and the descending trendline would break the lower-high chain
Close above the 4139.47 london high, near the 38.2% fib of the selloff at ~4142, invalidates the intraday downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read
London broke below the Asian range low; lower-high chain since 4148.24.
Gold extended the Asia slide from 4169.93 into London. It broke the 4126.96 Asian low and printed a session low at 4117.45 as the USD and long-end yields stayed firm. Lower highs from the 4148.24 swing high remain intact, and RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not yet oversold.
Support: 4,117.45, 4,104.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
A failure to hold the 4117.45 session low exposes the 4104 2-month low and the 4100 round number.
A move back above 4126.96 returns price inside the Asian range and weakens the range-break read.
An M15 close above the 4139.47 London high breaks both the lower-highs trendline and the lower-high chain.
The 38.2–50% retracement of the Asia selloff (4137.5–4143.7) sits just under the 4148.24 swing high.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~8h) could materially shift this read.
Asian range broken lower in London, lower-high chain from 4169.
Gold extended the Asia-session slide into London, breaking the Asian low at 4126.96 and printing a session low at 4119.44 as the USD drew fresh bids on firm long-end yields. The lower-high chain from 4169.57 is intact, with the last lower high at 4139.47. RSI(14) near 39 sits above its early-Asia trough despite the lower price, so momentum is not confirming the new low.
Support: 4,119.44, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4126.96 asian low would mark the London break as a false break.
Acceptance below the 4119.44 session low exposes the ~4104 2-month low.
A close above the 4139.47 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~9h) could materially shift this read.
LH/LL chain since 4183.89; Asian low broken in London.
Gold has printed lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 4183.89 NY high. London rejected 4139.47 near the 23.6% fib and then broke the Asian low at 4126.96, setting a session low at 4122.66. RSI(14) near 36 is not stretched, while a firm USD and elevated yields keep pressure on into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,122.66, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4126.96 asian low would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4122.66 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4104 2-month low
A close above the 4139.47 london high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~9h) and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
LH/LL chain from 4184; London broke below the Asian low.
Gold has printed a steady sequence of lower highs from the 4169.6 Asian open high, and London broke the Asian low at 4126.96 for a session low at 4124.83, with the London high at 4139.47 capping the bounce. The selling tracks a firmer USD and elevated long-end yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,124.83, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,126.96, 4,139.47, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4126.96 Asian low would mark the range break as a false break
A close above the 4139.47 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline. The 4148.24 swing high sits next, near the 38.2% retracement of the 4183.9–4124.8 leg
Failure to hold the 4124.83 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the ~4104 2-month low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~9h) and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 41 · price 4,130.79
Lower highs from the Asian high; early London stuck in a 4127–4139 band.
Gold slid through the Asia session from the 4169.93 Asian high to a 4126.96 session low as the USD firmed and yields held up. Early London has compressed into a 4127–4139 band under a line of descending highs. RSI(14) sits near 41 and the London high at 4139.47 caps the bounce attempts.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,139.47, 4,148.24, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4126.96 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4104 2m low
Close above the 4139.47 london high and the descending highs line opens the 4148.24 swing high, near the 38.2% of the selloff fib
Recovery through 4148.24 would put the 4169.93 asian high back in focus
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~10h) and today's US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; tight 4127–4139.5 box in early London.
Gold sold off through the Asia session from the 4169.9 asian high to a 4126.96 asian low, printing lower highs as the USD firmed on elevated yields. The first hour of London is boxed between 4127 and 4139.5. The 4139.5 london high is capping just under the 23.6% fib of the 4184–4127 selloff, and RSI(14) near 41 shows no oversold extreme.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,139.47, 4,148.30, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4139.5 london high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4148.3 lower high next
Failure to hold the 4127 asian low extends the downtrend toward the 4104 2m low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~10h) and the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4169.9 through Asia; early London holding a higher low at 4128.3.
The Asia session sold off from 4169.9 to a 4127.0 asian low as the USD firmed on yields, printing a chain of lower highs. Early London has held a 4128.3 london low and is pressing the 4139.5 london high near the 23.6% retrace of the Asia sell-off fib, with price pinned to EMA20.
Support: 4,128.30, 4,127.00
Resistance: 4,139.50, 4,143.40, 4,148.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4139.5 london high brings the 4143.4 fib 38.2 into play; the 4148.5 lower high (fib 50%) caps the Asia downtrend structure
Break below the 4128.3 london low and 4127.0 asian low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the $4,100 two-month low
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10-year auction could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since Asian open · RSI 34 · price 4,131.10
Lower-high chain from the Asian high, compressing above the session low in early London.
Asia session unwound Tuesday's late bounce. Renewed USD buying and firm yields drove a lower-high sequence from the 4169.93 Asian high down to a 4126.96 Asia low. Early London is compressing just above that low beneath the 4135.5 lower high and the descending lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 34, soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,135.52, 4,149.21, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4126.96 Asia low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4104 2-month low
Close above the 4135.5 lower high and the lower-highs line eases pressure; 4149.2 swing high is the next cap
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC and today's 10y auction could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower-high chain from 4183.89; tight 4127–4135 base into London open.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's NY peak at 4183.89 and faded from the 4169.9 asian high to a 4126.96 session low, tracking renewed USD and yield firmness. London open finds price compressing in a 4127–4135.5 band with RSI(14) near 33. The 38.2% fib of the decline sits at 4149, in line with the 4148–4149 lower high.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,122.87, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.50, 4,149.20, 4,169.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4135.5 range top breaks the micro lower-high chain
Loss of the 4126.96 session low exposes the 4122.87 prior low, then the 4100 psych / two-month low
Reclaim of the 4149 lower high and 38.2% fib needed to neutralise the downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Downtrend, basing near Asian low · RSI 39 · price 4,134.34
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, holding above 4126.96.
The Asia session ran a lower-high, lower-low sequence from 4169.93 to a 4126.96 Asian low as the USD firmed and yields ticked back up. Price is basing just above that low into the London open, RSI(14) near 39, with each bounce capped under the falling trendline. The latest lower high sits at 4137.59.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,113.44, 4,104.00
Resistance: 4,137.59, 4,143.37, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4137.59 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the Asia lower-high chain. The fib 38.2% at 4143.37 and the 4148.24 swing high sit above.
Failure to hold the 4126.96 Asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4113.44 tuesday low and the 4104 2-month low.
London open within the hour can widen the Asian range.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session, below the Asia range.
Asia session sold off from its 4169.93 high in a clean lower-high/lower-low chain, printing a session low at 4126.96 just before London open as re-firming USD and yields pressed gold back toward the two-month lows. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) near 38, not stretched, and the 4137.59 lower high is capping the latest bounce.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,137.59, 4,148.24, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4137.59 lower high breaks the immediate lower-high chain and the trendline; the 4148.24 swing high sits at the fib 50%
Failure to hold the 4126.96 session low exposes the 4113.44 prior low and the ~4100 two-month low zone
London open in ~30 min, a decisive extension or rejection of the Asia move sets the next leg
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
06:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 37 · price 4,134.18
LH/LL chain from 4169.9 Asian high, under falling trendline.
Asia session has stepped down from the 4169.9 Asian high in a clean lower-high chain, breaking Tuesday's NY low at 4143.6 as yields and USD re-firmed ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The 06:00 UTC bar dipped to a 4126.96 Asian low and recovered, but price is still capped by the falling trendline and the 4137.6 swing high going into London open, RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,126.96, 4,113.44, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,137.59, 4,143.61, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4137.6 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the Asia lower-high chain, with the 4148.2 lower high next
Close below the 4126.96 Asian low extends the sequence toward the 4113.4 Tue low, then 4100 psych
Reclaim of the 4143.6 Tue NY low, near the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, would neutralise the Asian break
London open inside the hour may set the session range from current levels
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia LH/LL chain after break of opening range; price below Tuesday's 4143.6 pullback low.
Asia broke the 4161.6–4169.9 opening range lower at 00:15 UTC and has printed lower highs and lower lows since, unwinding most of Tuesday's rebound to the 4183.9 high as yields and the USD re-firmed. Price sits at 4129 into the London open with RSI(14) near 27. Next below are the 4120 prior base from Tuesday's early session and the 4113.4 prior low.
Support: 4,120.20, 4,113.44, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,137.60, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4137.6 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4148.2 swing high and the lower highs trendline negates the downtrend read
Loss of the 4120 prior base exposes the 4113.4 prior low, then the 4100 psych level
London open in ~1h typically expands the session range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session, testing a descending trendline.
The Asia session has stepped lower from the 4169.9 asia high to a 4131.3 session low, with each bounce capped by the descending trendline that price is now retesting near 4137. RSI(14) sits at 33, soft but not oversold, as firmer yields and a USD bid stalled Tuesday's rebound ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,131.34, 4,113.44, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,138.26, 4,148.24, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
The 4138.3 broken low is the first cap. An M15 close above the trendline and the 4148.2 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 38.2% fib at 4151 next.
Failure to hold the 4131.3 session low extends the sequence toward the 4113.4 prior low and the 4100 psych level.
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range low.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
05:33 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI near 33 · RSI 33 · price 4,133.61
Lower highs and lower lows from 4169.93 Asia high, now pressing the session low.
Asia session has sold off steadily from the 4169.93 Asia high in a chain of lower highs, breaking Tuesday's 4143.61 pullback low as a firmer USD and re-firming yields stalled the rebound. Price sits at 4133.6 just above the 4131.34 session low, roughly 50% of the way through the 4183.89–4131.34 tue high-to-low leg, with London open about 90 minutes out.
Support: 4,131.34, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,148.24, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.24 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the Asia selling sequence
Failure to hold the 4131.34 session low exposes the 4113.44 tue low
Retracement of the 4183.89–4131.34 leg stalling near the 38.2% at ~4151 keeps the downtrend intact; reclaiming the asia high at 4169.93 negates it
London open could expand the Asian range; ATR around 465 pips sets the typical bar size
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain from the 4169.93 Asian high; Tuesday NY low broken.
Asia has carved a steady lower-high/lower-low sequence off the 4169.93 asian high. Price cut through Tuesday's NY low at 4143.61 and printed a fresh session low at 4133.28 as USD and yields re-firmed. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not extreme, and price trades below both EMAs heading into the London open.
Support: 4,133.28, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,143.61, 4,148.24, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
A reclaim of the 4143.61 ny low and the 4148.24 swing high would break the Asia lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 4133.28 session low extends the lower-low chain toward Tuesday's prior low at 4113.44
Recovery above the 4169.93 asian high would invalidate the session downtrend read
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Asia open, NY low broken.
Asia session reversed off 4,170 as USD retook 102.00 on firmer yields. Gold stepped down in a lower-high chain under a descending trendline and is now below the 4,143.6 NY low and the 61.8% retrace of the 4,113–4,184 rally, with RSI(14) near 30. Below sit the 78.6% fib at 4,128.5, the 4,120 range base from Tuesday's Asia session and the 4,113.4 London low.
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the descending trendline and the 4,143.6 NY low would stall the lower-high chain
Close above the 4,149.2 lower high invalidates the Asia downtrend read
Failure to hold the 4,128.5 fib 78.6 exposes the 4,120 range base, then the 4,113.4 London low
London open in ~2h may set a new session range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:47 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI soft but not oversold · RSI 33 · price 4,137.80
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia high; price below yesterday's NY low.
Late in the Asia session, gold has stepped lower from the 4169.9 Asia high in a chain of lower highs and lower lows. It slipped through yesterday's NY low at 4143.6 to a fresh session low at 4136.8 as the USD retook 102.00 on a renewed leg up in yields. RSI(14) sits near 33, and the falling trendline is capping each bounce near 4144.
Support: 4,136.83, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,143.61, 4,149.21, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4149.2 lower high and the falling trendline breaks the Asia lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4136.8 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4113.4 prior low
Reclaiming the 4143.6 NY low would mark the break below it as a false break
London open in roughly two hours typically widens the current range
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows, late-Asia compression above session low.
Asia session reversed from the 4169.93 asian high to a 4138.26 asian low as USD retook 102.00 on a fresh leg up in yields, giving back most of the NY rally toward the 4183.89 prior high. Late-Asia price is compressing near 4142 under the 4149.21 lower high, with RSI(14) near 37 and the selloff fib 38.2% at 4155.7.
Support: 4,138.26, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,149.21, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4138.26 asian low extends the lower-low chain and exposes the 4113.44 prior low
M15 close above the 4149.21 lower high breaks the Asia downtrend line and puts the 4155.7 selloff fib 38.2% in play
London open in ~2.5h is likely to set the next session range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia lower highs and lower lows from 4169.9, compressing above 4138.
Asia session unwound Tuesday's NY rally, sliding from the 4169.9 Asian high to a 4138.3 session low as DXY firmed back above 102.00 on rising yields. Price is back below Tuesday's 4143.6 NY pullback low, RSI(14) near 34, with bounces capped at the 4148–4149 lower high.
Support: 4,138.26, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,149.21, 4,154.10, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.2 lower high and the Asia lower-highs trendline breaks the Asian downtrend sequence
Failure to hold the 4138.3 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4113.4 tue low
A retracement of the Asia slide meets the fib 50% at 4154.1; the 4169.9 Asian high marks the range top
London open in under 3h and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 4,143.37
LH/LL chain from 4169.9 Asian high; testing Tuesday NY low.
Asia sold off from the 4169.9 Asian high as DXY retook 102.00 on firmer yields. Price has unwound about two-thirds of Tuesday's 4113–4184 rally and printed a session low at 4138.3, just under Tuesday's NY low at 4143.6. Price is now back at that level, capped by the descending Asia trendline and the 4149 lower high, with RSI(14) near 34 and not yet oversold.
Support: 4,138.26, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,143.61, 4,149.21, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149 lower high and the Asia trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to reclaim the NY low at 4143.6, then a break of the 4138.3 session low, extends the lower-low chain toward the 4113.4 Tuesday low
London open in ~3h may challenge the Asian range; the 0.382 of the Asia sell-off fib sits near 4155
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows off the session high, early reclaim of the NY low.
Asia session sold off from the 4161.6–4169.9 opening range, setting lower highs down to a 4138.3 session low as the USD firmed on a renewed uptick in yields. Price has reclaimed Tuesday's 4143.6 NY low after a brief false break and is pressing the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 37 and the 4149.2 lower high as the first cap.
Support: 4,143.61, 4,138.26
Resistance: 4,149.21, 4,155.57, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4149.2 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and brings the 4155.6 broken low (50% fib ~4154) into play
Slip back below the 4143.6 NY low and then the 4138.3 session low extends the lower-low chain
Only a reclaim of the 4169.9 session high negates the Asia downtrend read
London open in ~3h and FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:34 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 31 · price 4,142.80
Lower-high/lower-low chain from 4169.9; trading just under the NY low.
Gold fell through the Asia session, from the 4169.9 session high to a 4138.3 session low, as DXY firmed back above 102.00 on higher yields and Iran headlines. The drop cut just below the 4143.6 NY low, and price is now pinned under it with a falling trendline of lower highs (last at 4149.2). RSI(14) is near 31 with the London open roughly 3.5h away.
Support: 4,138.30, 4,113.40
Resistance: 4,143.60, 4,149.20, 4,169.90
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4149.2 lower high and falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold the 4138.3 session low opens the 4113.4 prior low
Reclaim of the 4143.6 ny low would mark the break as a false break
Price is about 0.1 into the fib retracement of the move from the 4183.9 NY high; 0.382 is near 4155.7
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Downtrend through Asia, RSI near oversold · RSI 27 · price 4,140.15
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4169.9 Asian high; Tuesday's NY low broken.
The Asia drop ran from the 4169.93 Asian high to a 4138.62 session low, slicing through Tuesday's 4143.61 NY low as USD retook DXY 102.00 on a fresh uptick in yields. Lower highs at 4154.98 and 4149.21 cap each bounce, with RSI(14) near 27 late in the Asia session ahead of the London open.
Support: 4,138.62, 4,120.18
Resistance: 4,143.61, 4,149.21, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 4143.61 ny low would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the 4149.21 lower high breaks the lower-highs line
Loss of the 4138.62 session low exposes the 4120 prior range from Tuesday's Asian session
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 29 · price 4,142.25
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, below prior NY low.
The Asia session has unwound Tuesday's late high at 4183.89 with a lower-high chain from the 4169.93 Asia high. Price slipped through the prior NY low at 4143.61 to a 4140.19 Asia low, with RSI(14) near 29 and price below EMA20/50 as the yield-driven bounce fades ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,140.19, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,143.61, 4,149.21, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4149.21 lower high and the asia lower highs trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4143.61 prior ny low turns the break into a false break
Acceptance below the 4140.19 asia low exposes the 4113.44 london base, Tuesday's rally origin
Selloff fib 38.2% at ~4156.9 is the first retracement test of the Asia leg
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4183.89 NY high; Asian range broken lower, NY low swept.
At 00:15 UTC, Asia session dropped out of its 4161.59–4169.93 range and swept the NY low at 4143.61 to a 4140.19 session low. The bounce to 4149 is shallow, and price sits below both EMAs with lower highs intact since the 4183.89 NY high. The rebound off the two-month low on easing yields is fading into FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,143.61, 4,140.19, 4,103.93
Resistance: 4,161.59, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4161.59 range low, which coincides with the 50% retrace of the NY high to session low drop, negates the range break read
Failure to hold the 4140.19 session low extends the lower-high sequence toward the two-month low at 4103.93
Lower-high trendline from the NY high, now near 4158, is capping the bounce; a close through it shifts the micro structure
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields
02:34 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 34 · price 4,146.85
Lower-high sequence off Asian high, testing NY swing low.
Late in the Asia session, gold has slid from the 4169.93 Asian high in a chain of lower highs. It dipped to a 4140.19 session low, just under Tuesday's NY swing at 4143.61, before a shallow bounce, with RSI(14) near 34 and price below both EMAs. The yield-driven rebound off the 4104 two-month low, which peaked at the 4183.89 prior high, is fading ahead of today's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,140.19, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,155.56, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close above the descending trendline and the 4155.56 breakdown shelf (near the 38.2% fib) would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4140.19 session low exposes the 4113.44 swing low
A reclaim of the 4169.93 Asian high (61.8% fib zone) neutralises the Asia selloff
London open in ~4h may expand the session range away from 4140–4155
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through Asia · RSI 28 · price 4,143.40
Asian range broken lower; sequence of lower highs from 4169 down to 4147.
Asia session broke below its 4161–4170 opening range and carved a chain of lower highs down to a session low at 4140.19, giving back most of Tuesday's leg from the 4183.89 prior high as the yield-driven bounce off the two-month low fades into the FOMC Minutes. RSI(14) sits near 28 with price below both EMAs; first retracement resistance is the fib 38.2 at 4156.9, with the asian high at 4169.9 above.
Support: 4,140.19, 4,113.44
Resistance: 4,156.90, 4,169.90, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the lower-high line and the fib 38.2 at 4156.9 would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 4140.19 session low exposes the 4113.44 swing low from Tuesday's Asia–London base
Reclaiming the 4169.9 asian high would put the 4183.89 prior high back in focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields
02:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend, extending through Asia · RSI 29 · price 4,146.54
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asian range broke at 00:00 UTC.
Asia session broke below its 4161.6–4169.9 range from 00:00 UTC and has stepped down in lower highs to 4146. Price is now pressing the 4143.6 NY low, which lines up with the 50% retrace of the 4104–4184 rally fib, as the yield-driven bounce fades. RSI(14) sits near 29 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,143.61, 4,128.30
Resistance: 4,155.60, 4,161.59, 4,169.93
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4143.6 ny low and 50% rally fib exposes the 4128.3 swing low, the base of yesterday's London breakout.
A recovery above the 4155.6 pivot and the lower-highs line negates the Asia breakdown. Reclaiming the 4161.6 asian low puts price back inside the Asian range, with the asian high at 4169.9 above.
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today are the main event risk. A hawkish read on yields could extend the slide.
Asian range broken lower; lower highs and lower lows since 00:00 UTC.
Asia session broke below its 4161.6–4169.9 opening range on a run of lower highs, printing a 4149.80 session low. Price now sits on the 38.2% fib of the 4103.93–4183.89 rally, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 36 and the 4143.61 ny low, close to the 50% level, as the next swing beneath.
Support: 4,149.80, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,162.50, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4162.50 range floor negates the Asian range break
Failure to hold the 4149.80 session low exposes the 4143.61 ny low and 50% fib
Close above the 4169.93 asian high reopens the 4183.89 ny high
London open in ~5.5h typically expands the range; FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range broken lower, lower highs since 4183.9.
Early in the Asia session, gold slipped out of the 4161.6–4169.9 Asian range to a 4151.7 session low, near the 38.2% fib of the 4104–4184 rebound. The intraday rally from the two-month low has produced lower highs since the 4183.9 swing high. RSI(14) is near 35 and price sits under both EMAs as yields set the tone into the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,151.74, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,161.59, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4151.7 session low exposes the 4143.6 ny swing low, which aligns with the 50% fib
A move back above the asian low at 4161.6 would negate the range break; the asian high at 4169.9 is the next cap
Only a reclaim of the 4183.9 swing high revives the higher-high sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; until then, US 10y yield moves drive the tape
Early Asia broke below the 4161.6 Asian low, extending the slide from the 4183.9 NY session high into a test of the 4154.3 swing low. Lower highs remain intact under the descending trendline and RSI(14) sits near 37. The bounce off the 4104 two-month low is losing traction ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,154.30, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,161.60, 4,169.90, 4,183.90
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4161.6 asian low negates the range break
Loss of the 4154.3 swing low and the 78.6% fib exposes the 4143.6 NY low
Close above the 4169.9 asian high breaks the lower-highs sequence, reopening 4183.9 session high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:47 UTC
Pullback from day high, lower highs · RSI 43 · price 4,160.93
Asian range 4155.56–4169.93 under a descending lower-high line.
Gold bounced off the 4103.93 two-month low as yields eased, peaking at 4183.89, the day high, late in NY. Since then it has printed lower highs, rejected the 4169.93 asian high in early Asia and dipped to the 4155.56 asian low. That low sits on the 38.2% of the 4103.93–4183.89 fib. RSI(14) is near 43 and price is below both EMAs.
Support: 4,155.56, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4155.56 asian low opens the 50% fib at the 4143.61 ny low
M15 close above the 4169.93 asian high breaks the lower-highs line and exposes the 4183.89 day high
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read, with long-end yields the driver
Lower highs off 4183.89 prior high; Asian range broken to the downside.
The bounce from Tuesday's 4104 low on easing yields has stalled. Asia session was rejected twice at the 4169.93 Asian high and has now slipped below the 4161.59 Asian low, extending the lower-highs sequence off the 4183.89 prior high. Price sits on the 61.8% fib of the 4143–4184 leg with RSI(14) near 38 and below both EMAs.
Support: 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,161.59, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
Holding below the 4161.59 asian low keeps the range break intact; a reclaim turns it into a false break
Loss of the 4154.29 swing low and the 61.8% fib exposes the 4143.61 ny low
M15 close above the 4169.93 asian high breaks the lower highs line and reopens the 4183.89 prior high
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:18 UTC
Uptrend off the Asia low, now pausing · RSI 47 · price 4,167.23
Higher low at 4143.6 and higher high at 4183.9; tight Asian range below the day high.
Gold extended Tuesday's rebound from the 4103.9 two-month low as long-end yields eased. After a higher low at the 4143.6 NY low, it printed a 4183.9 day high late in NY. Early Wednesday Asia is consolidating between the 4161.6 Asian low and the 4169.9 Asian high, near the 38.2–50% fib of that last leg, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and price hugging EMA20.
Support: 4,161.60, 4,154.30, 4,143.60
Resistance: 4,169.90, 4,183.90, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4161.6 asian low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4159 and the 4154.3 swing low
Break of the 4143.6 ny low would end the higher-low sequence
Close above the 4169.9 asian high puts the 4183.9 day high back in play, with the 4200 round number above
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Recovery from Asia low, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 4,165.57
Higher lows since 4103.93; tight Asian range below session high.
The rebound from Tuesday's 4103.93 Asia low peaked at a 4183.89 session high late in NY, where it was rejected, as easing long-end yields underpinned the bounce. Price is now compressing in a 4161.59–4169.93 Asian range, flat around EMA20. The 4154.29 swing low and the 4143.61 NY low, near the 50% fib of the rally, mark the higher-low sequence.
Support: 4,161.59, 4,154.29, 4,143.61
Resistance: 4,169.93, 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4161.59 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 4154.29 swing low
M15 close above 4169.93 asian high reopens the 4183.89 session high, then the 4200 round number
Failure to hold 4143.61 ny low (50% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read