XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:33 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pressing range top · RSI 68 · price 4,141.55
Asia higher lows inside the 4105–4146 prior-day range.
Early Asia session extends the late-NY grind higher, with rising lows off the 4131.14 Asia low, on the softer yields and USD flagged in the digest. The 4144.40 Asia high sits just under the 4145.97 prior high, where the spike around the 30Y auction was rejected. RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 4,135.93, 4,131.14, 4,121.21
Resistance: 4,144.40, 4,145.97, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4145.97 prior high breaks the day's range top and puts the 4150 round number in play
Loss of the 4135.93 swing low breaks the Asia rising lows; 4131.14 asia low and 4121.21 ny low sit below
Another rejection from the 4144.40 asia high to 4145.97 zone keeps the session inside the prior-day range
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, higher lows since NY low · RSI 64 · price 4,140.47
Gold rebounded from the 4105 day low during NY hours on softer yields and a weaker USD. The pullback from the 4146 day high held the 4121 swing low at the 61.8% fib, and early Asia has posted a higher low at 4131 along a rising trendline. Price is now testing the 4143 prior high just under the day high, with RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched.
Support: 4,131.14, 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,145.97, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4146 day high clears the NY peak and exposes the 4150 round number
Rejection at the 4143 prior high to 4146 day high band keeps the Asian range capped
Break of the rising trendline and the 4131 asia low ends the higher-low chain
Loss of 4121 swing low (61.8% fib) puts the 4105 day low back in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
23:04 UTC
Recovering within day range, higher lows · RSI 71 · price 4,137.77
Early Asia session is holding the upper half of yesterday's 4105–4146 range. The NY day low at 4105.45 drew a sharp bounce as yields and USD eased, and higher lows followed at the 4121.21 swing low and the 4131.14 Asian low. The 4140.79 session high sits just under the 4145.97 day high, where NY saw a rejection; RSI(14) is near 71.
Support: 4,131.14, 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,140.79, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4145.97 day high breaks the range top
Loss of the 4131.14 Asian low breaks the higher lows chain and exposes the 4121.21 swing low (61.8% of the NY bounce fib)
Failure at the 4140.79 session high keeps price ranging below the day high
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 4105–4146; higher-low chain 4121 → 4131 pressing range top.
Gold bounced off the 4105 day low in NY hours as yields and USD eased, spiking to a 4146 day high before rejection. Since then it has printed higher lows at the 4121 swing low, which is near the 61.8% of the rally fib, and the 4131 asia low. Early Asia is now pressing back toward Thursday's 4143 asia high and the 4146 day high.
Support: 4,131.14, 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146 day high breaks the 24h range top
Failure to hold the 4131 asia low and the higher-lows line breaks the recovery chain
Loss of the 4121 swing low puts the 4105 day low back in play
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:32 UTC
Recovering from day low, higher lows · RSI 64 · price 4,136.40
Higher lows from 4105 inside a 4105–4146 day range.
Gold rebounded off the 4105.45 day low during NY hours as yields and the USD eased on Trump's Iran de-escalation remarks, but the spike to a 4146 NY high met rejection. The pullback held the 61.8% fib near 4121, and early Asia session is pressing the 4137 asia high on a higher-low trendline, with RSI(14) near 64.
Support: 4,131.10, 4,121.20
Resistance: 4,137.30, 4,143.40, 4,146.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 4137 asia high exposes the 4143 prior high and the 4146 NY high at the top of the day range
Loss of the 4131 asia low, then the 61.8% fib at 4121, breaks the higher-low trendline and reopens the 4105 day low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
4105–4146 day range; HL chain off 4121 into early Asia.
Thursday's 4105–4146 range holds. NY bounced off the 4105.45 day low and swept the Asian high to the 4145.97 day high before rejection, as yields and USD eased. The pullback held the 61.8% fib of the NY rally fib at the 4121 swing low, and early Asia is grinding higher on rising support just under the 4136.43 late NY high, with RSI(14) neutral at 55.
Support: 4,131.14, 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,136.43, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4136.43 late NY high exposes the 4145.97 day high
Break of rising support and the 4131 Asia low puts the 4121 swing low back in play
Loss of the 4105.45 day low breaks the range to the downside
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Rangebound, higher low off NY session low · RSI 56 · price 4,133.51
Inside Asian range, compressing near 4133.
Gold bounced off the 4105 day low during NY hours as yields and the USD eased. It spiked to a 4146 day high but was rejected there. The retrace held the 4121 swing low at the 61.8% fib, and price has since ground back to 4133–4136 inside the 4103–4143 Asian range, with bar ranges contracting after NY close.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,136.43, 4,145.97, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4136 late high puts the 4143 asian high and 4146 day high back in play
Break below the 4121 swing low and rising support line negates the higher-low read
Loss of 4105 day low opens a fresh session low
Thin Asia session ahead; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
24h range 4105–4146; rising lows off the day low, price coiling under 4136.
Gold has held a 4105–4146 range all session. Claims at 12:30 UTC knocked it from 4131 to 4113, and the NY rebound off the 4105.5 day low ran to the 4146.0 day high as yields eased. The 61.8% retrace of that swing held at the 4121.2 swing low, and price is now grinding along rising lows into a tight band under the 4136.4 late NY high.
Support: 4,121.20, 4,105.50
Resistance: 4,136.40, 4,146.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4136.4 late NY high opens a retest of the 4146.0 day high
Loss of the 4121.2 swing low breaks the rising-lows line and exposes the 4105.5 day low
Thin post-NY liquidity into the Asia session; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could shift this read
21:17 UTC
Intraday range, higher low off day low · RSI 56 · price 4,133.51
4105–4146 day range; late-NY compression 4128–4136 above a 4121 higher low.
NY recovered from a 4105 day low on oil-driven USD softening after Trump's Iran de-escalation comments, sweeping the 4143 Asia high to 4146 before fading. The pullback held 4121 near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, printing a higher low, and late NY is compressing between the 4128 micro low and the 4136 late high into the daily close, with RSI(14) neutral near 56.
Support: 4,128.20, 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,136.43, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4136 late high reopens the 4143 Asia high and 4146 day high
Loss of the 4128 micro low puts the 4121 higher low and higher low line back in play
Break below 4121 negates the NY recovery structure and exposes the 4105 day low
Thin liquidity around the daily rollover into Asia session can produce outsized wicks
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset the day range
Higher low at 4121 after day-high rejection, compressing below 4136.
NY's rebound from the 4105.45 day low swept the asian high at 4143.39 to a 4145.97 day high and was rejected, with easing yields after the hawkish FOMC Minutes giving a bid but firm oil capping follow-through. The pullback held the 61.8% retrace at the 4121.21 swing low, and price is now compressing beneath the 4136.43 late-NY high into the thin pre-rollover close.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,136.43, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4136.43 late-NY high reopens the 4143.39 asian high and 4145.97 day high
Break of the 4121.21 swing low and the rising lows line exposes the 4105.45 day low
Daily rollover just ahead: spreads widen and liquidity thins, so range breaks here are less reliable
UMich sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could reset this range
20:47 UTC
Late-NY recovery, higher lows below the day high · RSI 56 · price 4,133.49
Sweep and rejection at the 4146 day high, pullback held the 61.8%, compressing below 4136.
The NY spike off the 4105 day low ran through the 4143 Asian range high to a 4146 day high and was rejected. The pullback held the 4121 swing low, right at the 61.8% retrace, and late-NY bars have since printed rising lows into a 4136 late high as ranges contract into the Asia handover.
Support: 4,128.20, 4,121.20
Resistance: 4,136.40, 4,146.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4136.4 late high reopens the 4146 day high and the Asian range top
Loss of the 4128 higher low and the rising lows line returns focus to the 4121 swing low and 61.8% retrace
Break of the 4105 day low invalidates the rebound read
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold has held a 4105–4146 range over the past 24h. The NY spike to the 4145.97 session high stalled just above the Asian high and was rejected, but the pullback held the 4121.21 swing low near the 61.8% fib of the 4105–4146 leg. Late NY is grinding back toward the 4140 prior high with RSI(14) around 57 as yields eased after the hawkish FOMC Minutes dip.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,140.42, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4145.97 session high clears the twin cap from the Asia and NY highs
Break below the 4121.21 swing low unwinds the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4105.45 day low
Repeated stalls at the 4140 prior high keep the mid-range read intact
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
20:17 UTC
Range-bound, grinding higher off a higher low · RSI 64 · price 4,134.86
4105–4146 day range; sweep high rejected, higher low at 4121.
NY session swept the asian high at 4143.39 to a 4145.97 sweep high and was rejected back into range. The pullback held a higher low at 4121.21, near the 61.8% of the NY swing fib. Price is now grinding back toward 4135 late session as yields eased, still inside the 4105–4146 day range.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4145.97 sweep high breaks the day range and clears the asian high
Failure to hold the 4121 higher low reopens the 4105 session low and the 4100 minutes low
Fri 14:00 UTC UMich sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read; oil and yield headlines dominate until then
Higher lows off the NY low, compressing under a 4134 range top.
Late NY session. The 16:00 UTC rebound from the 4105 NY low ran into rejection at the 4146 day high, just above the Asian high. Price has since compressed between the 4121 swing low and the 4134 range top on higher lows, with the 61.8% fib retrace holding. Easing yields are lifting the bounce while hawkish Fed pricing keeps follow-through thin, and price sits just above the 4100 psych level that briefly gave way after the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,134.45, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4134 range top reopens the 4146 day high
Break of the 4121 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 4105 NY low
A move back below the 4105 NY low puts the 4100 psych level in play, the area briefly lost after the FOMC Minutes
UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read; until then yields and oil drive the tape
19:48 UTC
Intraday range, compressing in late NY · RSI 57 · price 4,130.08
4105–4146 day range; higher low at 4121.2 under a 4134.3 lower high.
Gold bounced hard off the NY low at 4105.5 as yields eased. The 17:15 UTC push swept the Asian high at 4143.4 to a day high of 4146.0 and was rejected, with firm USD capping follow-through. The pullback held the 4121.2 swing low at the 61.8% fib of the ny low–day high leg, and late NY is coiling between that higher-low line and a 4134.3 lower high, RSI(14) neutral near 57.
Support: 4,121.20, 4,110.00, 4,105.50
Resistance: 4,134.30, 4,143.40, 4,146.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4134.3 lower high reopens the 4143.4 asian high and 4146.0 day high
Break of the 4121.2 swing low and the higher-low line exposes the 4110.0 london low and 4105.5 ny low
Fri 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment and UoM inflation expectations could materially shift this read
19:32 UTC
Range-bound, recovering off the 4105 day low · RSI 57 · price 4,129.71
24h range 4105–4146; higher low at 4121 after the false break of the Asian high.
At 17:15 UTC the NY bounce off the 4105.45 day low poked above the 4143.39 Asian high to a 4145.97 session high, then rejected; firm USD after the 197K claims print has capped gold despite easing yields. The pullback held a higher low at 4121.21, near the 61.8% fib of the 4105–4146 leg. Late NY price is mid-range below the 4134.45 intraday cap.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,134.45, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4134.45 intraday cap reopens the 4143.39 asian high and 4145.97 session high
Failure to hold the 4121.21 higher low breaks the rising support and exposes the 4105.45 day low
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations, Fri 14:00 UTC, are the next scheduled risk
19:18 UTC
Sideways, two-way intraday range · RSI 54 · price 4,127.99
Range 4105–4146; false break above Asian high, price mid-range.
Late NY session. The 16:00–17:15 UTC rally from the 4105 session low swept the Asian high at 4143.39 and printed a 4145.97 session high around the 30Y auction, then was rejected, matching the digest's weak follow-through amid a firm USD. Price is now holding the 50% retrace near 4126, with the 4121 swing low beneath and a 4134 lower high capping. RSI(14) is neutral at about 54.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,134.45, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4146 session high invalidates the false-break read and clears the Asian high
Acceptance above the 4134 lower high reopens a test of 4143–4146
Loss of the 4121 swing low (61.8% retrace) exposes the 4105 session low and 4100 prior low
No US data in the next 8h; UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) are the next catalyst for a range break
19:04 UTC
Sideways, two-way chop · RSI 58 · price 4,128.81
Wide 4105–4146 day range, lower highs since NY spike.
NY rallied off the 4105.45 day low and swept the Asian high at 4143.39 to a 4145.97 session high around the 30Y auction, but the spike was rejected and price is now holding 4121–4134 in late NY. The 4121.21 swing low sits near the 61.8% of the NY swing, with the 4134.45 minor high capping and price mid-range near EMA20.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,134.45, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
Close back above the 4134.45 minor high reopens the 4143–4146 asian high / session high zone
Loss of the 4121 swing low (61.8% of NY swing) exposes the 4105.45 day low
Asia session after the daily break may set its own range inside 4121–4134 if no catalyst
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Two-way chop inside a wide intraday range · RSI 54 · price 4,125.13
NY swept the Asian high and was rejected; price now sits at the 50% retrace of the NY leg.
Late in the NY session, gold rallied off the 4105.45 NY low as yields eased and briefly swept the 4143.39 Asian high to a 4145.97 day high. Supply capped it there, and price has faded back to 4125, the 50% of the NY leg fib, with a lower high at 4134.45 and the 4121.21 swing low just below near the 61.8% level. Firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing keep rallies contained inside the 4105–4146 session range.
Support: 4,121.21, 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,134.45, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4121.21 swing low (61.8% of the NY leg) exposes the 4105.45 NY low and the 4100.37 prior low
An M15 close back above the 4134.45 lower high reopens a test of the 4143.39 asian high
An M15 close above the 4145.97 day high invalidates the sweep-and-rejection read
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations on Fri at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
18:32 UTC
Sideways, late-NY fade from day high · RSI 51 · price 4,123.53
4105–4146 day range; spike above Asian high rejected, lower high forming below 4133.
Gold spent the day inside a 4105–4146 range. The post-auction spike after London close swept the Asian high at 4143 to a 4145.97 day high and was rejected as firm USD and yields capped the yield-easing bounce. Late NY price is drifting back below the 4133 range cap and sits between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 4105–4146 leg, slightly under both EMAs.
Support: 4,112.90, 4,105.45, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,133.00, 4,145.97, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4112.9 swing low exposes the 4105.45 day low and the 4100 round number
Reclaim of the 4133 range cap reopens the 4145.97 day high; acceptance above the 4150 round number breaks the range read
Holding the 61.8% fib near 4121 keeps the auction-spike leg intact; a loss of it turns the retracement into a full reversal
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
NY took out both ends of the Asian range and rejected back inside.
During NY hours price swept both sides of the 4114–4143 Asian range. A dip to the 4105.5 ny low was reclaimed, then a spike to the 4146.0 session high was rejected straight back inside, with supply capping below 4150 psych even as yields eased. Late NY is holding the 4126.7 pullback low near the 50% fib of the 4105–4146 leg, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 4,126.70, 4,105.50, 4,100.40
Resistance: 4,143.40, 4,146.00, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4143.4 asian high puts the 4146.0 session high and 4150 psych back in play
Failure to hold the 4126.7 pullback low and the 50% fib exposes the 4105.5 ny low and 4100.4 prior low
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read
Higher lows off NY low; sweep of Asian high rejected.
Late NY session: the rally off the 4105.45 ny low, helped by easing yields, swept the asian high at 4143.39 to a 4145.97 session high and was rejected there. Price is now consolidating at 4131–4133, holding the 38.2% level of the NY rally fib with higher lows intact along the rising trendline. RSI(14) is neutral near 57.
Support: 4,127.11, 4,115.10, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,145.97, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4145.97 session high and 4150 round number invalidates the rejection read
Break of the 4127.11 swing low and trendline exposes the 50–61.8% NY rally fib at 4125.7–4120.9, then the 4115.1 higher low
Loss of the 4105.45 ny low returns price to the day's lows and breaks the higher-low chain
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled risk after a thin Asia session
4105–4146 range; NY swept the London low, then false break above the Asian high.
NY swept below the London low to an NY low of 4105.45 and reversed sharply. It briefly cleared the Asian high at 4143.39 to a 24h high of 4145.97 before rejection. Price is now parked near 4131, just under the London high and above ema20, with RSI(14) neutral near 53 after the 12:30 UTC claims beat knocked gold off 4132.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39, 4,145.97
What it said to watch
M15 close above the london high at 4133 reopens the asian high 4143.39 and 24h high 4145.97
Loss of ema20 and 50% of the ny rally fib (4125.7) exposes the london low 4109.99 and ny low 4105.45
Musalem (17:40 UTC) on another hike this year could materially shift this read
Day range 4103–4146; false break above Asian high, higher lows from NY low.
Gold fell to the 4105.45 NY low after the claims beat and the post-Kashkari slide. It then rebounded on a softer USD after the Iran de-escalation headline, briefly clearing the 4143.4 Asian high to a 4146.0 day high before being rejected. Price now sits around 4129, just under the 38.2% fib of the NY leg, with rising lows still intact, RSI(14) neutral near 54 and ATR(14) around $10.
Support: 4,123.00, 4,105.45, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,143.40, 4,146.00, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
M15 close above the 4146.0 day high invalidates the false-break read and puts the 4150 round number in play
Loss of the 4123 pivot and the rising lows exposes the 4105.45 NY low, then the 4100 round number
17:17 UTC
Intraday recovery inside a day range · RSI 58 · price 4,134.73
Higher lows off 4105.45 NY low, price testing upper half of the 4105–4143 range.
Gold dipped after the 12:30 UTC claims beat and was rejected at the 4140.42 NY high, then printed a 4105.45 session low before stacking higher lows after London close. It has now retraced roughly 80% of the NY drop fib to 4134.73. The day's range is capped by the ny high and the 4143.39 asia high, with the 4150 round number above, in line with the digest's read that rallies are being sold.
Support: 4,123.04, 4,115.10, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,140.42, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143.39 asia high breaks the day's range top and puts the 4150 round number in play
Loss of the 4123.04 higher low breaks the rising trendline; a close back below the 4115.10 pullback low reopens the 4105.45 session low
Rejection again at the 4140.42 ny high keeps the range read intact
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
4105–4143 range; NY sweep below london low reclaimed, lower high at 4140.
Gold has held a 4105–4143 range since the Asian-session spike. NY rejected the ny high at 4140.42 below the asian high, then swept the london low to 4105.45 before a sharp reclaim, with the hawkish Minutes backdrop and the 197K claims beat keeping bounces contained. Price now sits after London close inside the 50–61.8% fib of the NY drop, just above flat EMAs, with the london high at 4133 the first cap.
Support: 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read alongside the firm USD and yields backdrop
An M15 close above the london high at 4133 reopens the ny high 4140 and asian high 4143 range top
A loss of the ny low at 4105.45 negates the sweep and exposes the prior low at 4100.37
16:48 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 47 · price 4,119.89
4105–4143 day range; lower highs, London low swept late NY.
Gold has held a 4105–4143 range for the past 24h, with the 4143.39 Asia high and the 4140.42 NY high forming lower highs. The 4140.42 high was rejected around Kashkari's remarks as hawkish-Fed and yield pressure capped the bounce. The 16:00 UTC drop swept the London low to the 4105.45 session low, and the follow-up spike to 4132.82 stalled near the 78.6% of the NY sell-off fib. Price now sits mid-range just under EMA20 late in NY, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,132.82, 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Musalem at 17:40 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
M15 close below the 4105.45 session low exposes the 4100 handle (prior-day low 4100.37)
M15 close above the 4132.82 spike high reopens the 4140.42 NY high and 4143.39 Asia high, where the lower-highs line sits
Failure to clear the 61.8% of the NY sell-off fib (~4127) keeps price pinned in the lower half of the range
Lower highs from 4143 Asian high; NY low 4105 held, spike rejected.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4143.39 Asian high. The NY high at 4140.42 was rejected and price slid to a 4105.45 session low as a firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing capped bounces. The late-NY spike to 4132.82 retraced roughly 78.6% of that NY sell-off fib before being rejected, leaving price near the 38.2% around 4119 below both EMAs.
Support: 4,105.45, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,132.82, 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4132.82 spike high breaks the lower highs sequence and exposes the 4140.42 NY high and 4143.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4105.45 session low opens the 4100 round number
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4140 then a sweep of the London low into 4105.
The 197K claims beat at 12:30 UTC hit gold first. The NY rebound then stalled at the 4140.42 session high, just under the 4143.39 Asian high, and rolled over to a 4105.45 session low. That dip swept the London low near 4110 and closed back above it. Price now sits in the lower part of the 4105–4143 day range, below EMA20 and EMA50, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,105.45, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,118.45, 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4105.45 session low exposes the 4100.37 prior low and the 4,100 handle
Recovery above the 4118.45 minor high would neutralise the post-14:30 UTC slide
Lower-highs trendline from the Asian high caps near 4140; a break above it invalidates the lower-high read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift USD and yields, and this read with them
16:04 UTC
Range, rolling over from NY high · RSI 42 · price 4,111.81
Lower high at 4140 under Asian high, price testing London low.
Gold has spent the day in a 4110–4143 range. NY printed a lower high at 4140.4, short of the 4143.4 Asian high, and was rejected while USD and yields stayed firm. Price has since slid below EMA20/50 into the London low near 4110, which lines up with the 78.6% fib of the Asia rally.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,098.80
Resistance: 4,118.50, 4,140.40, 4,143.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110 london low exposes the 4098.8 prior low and the 4100 handle
Reclaim of the 4118.5 minor high returns price to mid-range
Close above the 4140.4 ny high breaks the lower-highs trendline toward the 4143.4 asian high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
15:47 UTC
Range with lower highs, momentum fading · RSI 41 · price 4,115.31
4110–4143 day range; third lower high, pressing range floor.
Mid-NY session, the spike to the 4140.42 NY high was rejected around Kashkari's 14:40 UTC remarks. Price unwound to the 4112.91 session low, leaving a third lower high under the 4143.39 Asian high. Gold now sits at the floor of the 4110–4143 day range with RSI(14) near 41, as firm yields after the hawkish FOMC Minutes cap bounces.
Support: 4,112.91, 4,109.99, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,133.72, 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4109.99 london low breaks the day range and exposes the 4103.41 asian low and the 4100 handle
Reclaim of the 4133.72 swing high reopens the 4140.42 ny high and the lower-highs trendline from the 4143.39 asian high
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs into range floor · RSI 45 · price 4,116.38
4110–4143 range since Asia; lower high at 4140.42, price testing lows.
The Asia-session rally set the asian high at 4143.39. London and NY have chopped inside a 4110–4143 range since, with the claims beat at 12:30 UTC knocking price from 4131 to 4113. The 14:30 UTC push to 4140.42 around Kashkari's remarks was rejected below the asian high, leaving a lower high. Price is back at the 4113–4116 swing low area, below the ema20, with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,112.92, 4,109.99, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,122.00, 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4109.99 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 4100 round number
Recovery above the ema20 near 4122 and the 0.5–0.618 fib of the 14:30 drop (4127–4130) puts the descending trendline from the asian high back in focus
Close above the 4140.42 lower high / 4143.39 asian high invalidates the lower-high read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
4110–4143 range since Asia, price back at range floor.
Gold has held a 4110–4143 range since the Asia high. Mid-NY session, the NY leg to the 4140 ny high was rejected just short of the asia high and has fully unwound to the 4113 session low, with RSI(14) near 44. A firm USD and elevated yields after the 197K claims beat have capped every bounce, and the London low at 4110 is the range floor.
Support: 4,113.40, 4,110.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,125.00, 4,140.40, 4,143.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4110 london low breaks the range floor and opens the 4100 round number
Holding the 4113 session low keeps the range intact; a reclaim of 4125 range mid is needed to rebuild toward the 4140 ny high
Close above 4143 asia high invalidates the range read
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Intraday range 4110–4143 inside the Asian range; flat highs, lows holding 4110–4114.
Gold has spent London and NY inside the Asian range, chopping between the 4110 london low and the range top near 4140–4143. NY pushed to a 4140.42 ny high around Kashkari's 14:40 UTC remarks and was rejected just under the asian high. The drop has already retraced over 61.8% of the NY swing from the 4113.41 ny low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price back under EMA20/50.
Support: 4,113.41, 4,109.99
Resistance: 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4113.41 ny low, then the 4109.99 london low, breaks the range floor and the Asian range low at 4103 comes into view
Close above the 4143.39 asian high clears the range top
Full retracement of the NY swing fib back to 4113 confirms the 4140 rejection
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift this read via yields and USD
14:48 UTC
Sideways, range since Asian high · RSI 49 · price 4,123.88
4110–4143 range; higher lows at 4110/4113, NY high rejected.
Gold has held a 4110–4143 range since the 4143.39 Asian high. The NY push to 4140.42 at 14:30 UTC was rejected back to 4124 into Kashkari's remarks, while hawkish-Minutes yields keep the bounce capped. Price sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4110–4140 leg, with rising lows at the london low (4109.99) and the claims low (4113.41) underneath; RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 4,113.41, 4,109.99, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,140.42, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4113 claims low breaks the rising lows and exposes the 4110 london low, then the 4100 round number
Close above the 4140 rejection high and the 4143 asian high breaks the range top
Kashkari (live now) and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could shift the read via yields and USD
14:32 UTC
Higher lows off the London low, capped below the Asian high · RSI 61 · price 4,135.69
HH/HL chain inside the 4110–4143 day range.
The firm 197K claims print knocked gold from 4131 to a 4113 claims low. That dip was bought, and NY hours have printed higher lows from the 4110 London low through the 4122 swing low, with price now pressing the 4137 session high beneath the 4143 Asian high. RSI(14) is near 61, not stretched; ATR is about $9.
Support: 4,121.96, 4,113.41, 4,109.99
Resistance: 4,137.35, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z, minutes away, could materially shift this read via yields and USD
An M15 close above the 4143 asian high breaks the day range to the upside
Loss of the 4122 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and reopens the 4113 claims low and 4110 london low
Musalem at 17:40Z is a second Fed-speak risk late in the NY session
14:18 UTC
Sideways, capped below Asian high · RSI 51 · price 4,124.32
4110–4134 range inside the Asian range, flat highs and flat lows.
London and the first hours of NY have stayed inside the Asian range. Price has been rejected three times at the 4132–4134 range top, while the 12:30 UTC claims dip found a floor at the 4113.41 claims low above the 4109.99 London low. Price is sitting on the 50% retrace of the Asia rally near 4122, flat on EMA20 with RSI(14) neutral at 51, consistent with the firm-USD, hawkish-minutes backdrop capping bounces.
Support: 4,113.41, 4,109.99, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,133.72, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133.72 range top invalidates the range read and reopens the 4143.39 asian high
Break of the 4109.99 london low, below the 61.8% of the Asia rally, exposes the 4103.41 asian low and 4100
Kashkari at 14:40Z and Musalem at 17:40Z could materially shift this read; hawkish remarks with firmer yields fit the capped range
14:04 UTC
Sideways, higher lows building · RSI 58 · price 4,129.06
4110–4134 intraday range inside Asian range, price at range top.
Gold has held a 4110–4134 range through London and early NY, inside the Asian range. The Asian high at 4143 faded as yields and the USD firmed. The 12:30 UTC claims beat knocked price to the 4113 claims low, then a 4120 higher low led back to the 4133 range top, which sits at the 61.8% retrace of the Asian high fade and has capped three times today.
Support: 4,120.20, 4,113.41, 4,109.99
Resistance: 4,133.72, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133.72 range top opens the 4143.39 Asian high
Loss of the 4120 higher low and the rising trendline exposes the claims low at 4113 and the 4110 session low
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z, inside the next few bars, could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
13:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 55 · price 4,125.14
4110–4133 range after Asian rally faded.
Gold has ranged 4110–4133 since the Asian rally to the 4143.39 Asian high faded, with sellers carving lower highs and a fresh rejection at the range top at 4132.20. The firm jobless claims print knocked price to a 4113.41 NY low before a rebound to mid-range near the 50% fib of the Asian rally. RSI(14) is neutral near 55.
Support: 4,113.41, 4,109.99
Resistance: 4,132.20, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Kashkari at 14:40Z could break the 4110–4133 range in either direction
M15 close above the 4132.20 range top breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 4143.39 Asian high
Failure to hold the 4113.41 NY low and 4109.99 London low takes price below the 78.6% fib of the Asian rally
13:32 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia · RSI 49 · price 4,122.61
London range 4110–4133, lower highs and contracting swings.
Gold has held a 4110–4133 range through London after fading from the 4143 Asian high, with lower highs forming along a descending line. The firmer 197K jobless claims print brought a rejection near 4131 into the NY open and a dip to a 4113 NY low. Price has since bounced back to mid-range near 4122, with RSI(14) neutral around 49 and the Asian low at 4103 below the range.
Support: 4,113.41, 4,109.99, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110 london low breaks the range and exposes the 4103 asian low
Close above the 4133 london high and the lower highs line shifts focus to the 4143 asian high
Loss of the 4113 ny low puts the range floor under pressure
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z and Musalem at 17:40Z could materially shift this read via yields and USD
13:18 UTC
Sideways, contracting below Asia high · RSI 52 · price 4,125.67
Lower highs from 4143 against a 4110–4113 floor, range compressing into NY.
The Asia rally to the 4143 asia high has faded into a contracting 4110–4133 range. London printed lower highs at 4133 and 4132 against the 4110 london low. The jobless-claims beat at 12:30Z drove a rejection from 4131 down to a 4113 claims low before the first NY bars recovered to 4126, near the midpoint of the asia high to london low fib and just above flat EMAs.
Support: 4,113.40, 4,110.00, 4,100.40
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4133 london high breaks the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 4143 asia high
Failure to hold the 4113 claims low and the 4110 london low confirms a range break lower, with the 4100 round number next
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z (~1.5h) and Musalem at 17:40Z could materially shift this read via yields and USD
London range 4110–4133 under the Asian high, lower highs forming.
The 4143.39 Asian high has capped the day, and London has ranged 4110–4133 with a lower high at the range top. The 197K jobless claims beat at 12:30 UTC knocked gold about $13 off 4131 to a claims low at 4113.41. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian leg in the London-NY transition, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,113.41, 4,109.99, 4,105.47
Resistance: 4,124.43, 4,132.20, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4109.99 london low breaks the range floor and exposes the 4105.47 asian low.
A reclaim of the fib 50% at 4124.43, then a close above the 4132.20 range top, puts the descending trendline from the asian high back in play.
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z could materially shift this read via yields and the USD.
4110–4133 range since Asian fade; claims bar rejected 4132.
Gold has held a 4110–4133 range since the Asian high at 4143.39 faded, with the London high at 4133.15 capping twice. The 12:30Z bar rejected 4132 after a firm 197K claims print lifted USD. Price is now testing the 61.8% fib near 4118, with the swing low at 4114.35 and the London low at 4109.99 below.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,109.99, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4109.99 london low breaks the range floor and puts the 4100 round number in play
Hold of the 61.8% fib and 4114.35 swing low keeps the range read intact
M15 close above the 4133.15 london high reopens the 4143.39 asian high
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z could materially shift this read via yields and USD
12:33 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since the Asia peak · RSI 47 · price 4,122.87
4110–4133 London range; higher lows off 4109.99 under test.
The bounce from Wednesday's 4066.52 low has stalled into a 4110–4133 London range below the 4143.39 Asia high. Highs keep coming in lower while the USD stays firm and yields sit near 2002 highs. The claims-hour bar rejected 4131.52, just under the London high, and is now pressing the rising trendline from the 4109.99 London low, roughly at the 50% of the Asia rally fib.
Support: 4,121.45, 4,109.99, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4121.45 higher low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 4109.99 London low, then the 4100 handle
An M15 close above the 4133.15 London high reopens the 4143.39 Asia high
The Jobless Claims reaction is still forming in the current bar; Kashkari at 14:40Z and Musalem at 17:40Z could shift the hike-path read during NY hours
12:18 UTC
Range, lower highs since the Asian high · RSI 45 · price 4,121.57
Compressing inside the 4110–4133 London range below a lower-highs line.
Asia ran to a 4143.39 high off the 4066.52 two-month low. London then capped price under 4133.15 and set a 4109.99 low, with a 4130.42 lower high since and the 4114 swing low holding. Price sits mid-range at 4121.6 during the London-NY transition, between the 23.6% and 38.2% levels of the recovery fib, with RSI(14) near 45 and both EMAs just overhead as a firm USD and near-2002 Treasury yields keep bounces contained.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,109.99, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,130.42, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands at the NY open and could break the 4109.99–4133.15 London range
An M15 close above the lower-highs line and the 4133.15 london high reopens the 4143.39 asian high
Failure to hold the 4114 swing low and the 4109.99 london low exposes the 4100 handle, near the 50% recovery fib
Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) remain follow-on Fedspeak risk for this range
12:04 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since the Asia peak · RSI 48 · price 4,124.72
Lower highs from 4143.39 inside the Asian range, 4110 London low holding.
Gold is consolidating inside the 4103–4143 Asian range after recovering from the hawkish-minutes drop to 4066.52. London printed a chain of lower highs, the latest at 4130.42, while demand held the 4109.99 London low. Price is hugging flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 48 into the London-NY transition, with a firm USD and high yields capping bounces.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,130.42, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30Z (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read; Kashkari speaks at 14:40Z
An M15 close above the 4133.15 london high breaks the lower-high trendline and reopens the 4143.39 asian high
Failure to hold the 4109.99 london low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4100 psych handle
11:47 UTC
Range-bound, lower highs since the Asia high · RSI 46 · price 4,124.14
Late-London range 4110–4133 under a descending lower-high line.
Late London, gold is rotating inside a 4110–4133 range below the 4143.4 Asia high. Lower highs keep stalling at the 61.8% fib of the Asia-high-to-London-low drop near 4130.6. Price is pinned to flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 46; the 4114.4 swing low and 4110 London low have absorbed dips while hawkish-Minutes yields and a firm USD cap bounces.
Support: 4,114.40, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,130.60, 4,133.20, 4,143.40
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133.2 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4143.4 asia high back in view
Failure to hold the 4110 london low after the 4114.4 swing low gives way confirms a lower-low and turns the range read lower
Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) lands about 45 min out at the London-NY transition; Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Repeated rejection at the 61.8% fib keeps the lower-highs line intact
11:33 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since London open · RSI 45 · price 4,122.96
Late-London range 4110–4133 inside the Asia rally's retracement.
The Asia rally to the 4143 asia high faded as the USD firmed after the hawkish FOMC minutes. London has printed lower highs at 4133, 4131 and 4126, while the 4110 london low drew a bid back above the 4114 swing low. Price sits at the 50% retracement of the Asia rally and on EMA20 around 4123 ahead of NY.
Support: 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,126.00, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the London range either way.
An M15 close above the 4126 lower high and the 4133 london high ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 4143 asia high back in view.
Failure to hold the 4114 swing low and the 4110 london low gives up the Asia rally's 61.8% and opens the low-4100s.
London lower highs inside the Asian range, price at 61.8% of the Asian rally.
The Asian rally met rejection at the 4143.39 asian high. It has since retraced to the 61.8% of the asian rally fib as the USD stays firm after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. London has printed lower highs from 4133.15 and a session low at 4109.99, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 47, still inside the Asian range above 4103.4.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,123.43, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read around the NY open
An M15 close above the 4123.4 lower high and the lower highs trendline breaks the London sequence and exposes the london high at 4133.15
Failure to hold the 4110 session low exposes the asian low at 4103.4 and the 4100 round number
11:04 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, lower highs · RSI 48 · price 4,120.93
London lower-high sequence; swept low reclaimed.
London has retraced the Asian leg from 4105 to the 4143 asian high, printing lower highs at the 4133 london high and the 4126 lower high. A dip to the 4110 london low swept the pre-London 4114 low and was quickly reclaimed. Price is now near the 61.8% fib around 4120, just under both EMAs, with RSI(14) ~48, in line with a bounce that is stalling as yields hold near multi-decade highs.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,103.40
Resistance: 4,126.00, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K), with Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4126 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline and brings the 4133 london high, then the 4143 asian high, back into view
Close back below the 4110 london low turns the sweep into a false break and exposes the 4103 asian low and the 4100 round number
10:47 UTC
Intraday downtrend from the Asian high · RSI 42 · price 4,117.03
Lower highs and lower lows since 4143, inside the Asian range.
The Asia-session rally from the 4105 asian low to the 4143 asian high has since been sold through a chain of lower highs (london high 4133, lower high 4126). Mid-London, the drop to a new session low at 4110 retraced more than 61.8% of that rally, with a firm USD after the hawkish FOMC Minutes capping the bounce. Price sits at 4117, below EMA20/50, with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,105.47, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,125.96, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4105 asian low and the 4100 swing low
Reclaim of the 4126 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 4133 london high back in play
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Only a move back above the 4143 asian high negates the intraday downtrend
10:32 UTC
Pullback from Asia high, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,117.40
Lower highs pressing a flat 4114–4116 base.
Asia extended the bounce from Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low to a 4143.39 Asia high. Mid-London, supply has capped each push along a lower-highs trendline (4133.15 london high, then a 4125.96 lower high), and price is back testing the 4114.35 swing low near the 38.2% fib. A firm USD and high yields after the hawkish FOMC Minutes frame the fade.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,103.41, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,125.96, 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4114.35 swing low breaks the base and exposes the 4103.41 asia low
Loss of 4103.41 brings the two-month low at 4066.52 back into view
Close above the lower-highs trendline (~4128) and the 4133.15 london high negates the fade; the 4143.39 asia high is next
US Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:17 UTC
Asian rebound stalling, lower highs since 4143 · RSI 49 · price 4,122.94
London ranging 4118–4133 inside the Asian range; lower highs from the session high.
Asia extended the rebound from Wednesday's 4066 post-Minutes low to a 4143.39 high. Rejection there and a run of lower highs have pulled price back to the 50% level of the asia rally fib near 4122. Mid-London, price is ranging between the 4118 london low and the 4133 london high, with RSI(14) near 49 and price straddling flat EMAs ahead of US data.
Support: 4,118.11, 4,114.35, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133 london high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 4143 asian high
Failure to hold the 4118 london low exposes the 4114 swing low (near 61.8% of the asia rally fib), then 4100 psych
US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
10:04 UTC
Neutral, compressing below Asian high · RSI 45 · price 4,122.27
Lower highs and higher lows inside the Asian range.
Asia ran to the 4143.39 asian high, then faded to a 4114.35 pullback low near the 38.2% fib of Wednesday's 4066–4143 rebound. London has stayed inside the Asian range, with lower highs at 4133.15 (london high) and higher lows into the 4119.4 swing low, as firm yields and oil keep the bounce below the 4150 intraday cap. Price is sitting on both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 4,119.40, 4,114.35, 4,105.47
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133.15 london high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4143.39 asian high back in view
Loss of the 4119.4 swing low, then the 4114.35 pullback low, exposes the 4105.47 asian low and the 50% fib near 4105
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the likely catalyst out of the compression
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC; acceptance above the 4150 intraday cap would change the capped-bounce read
09:47 UTC
Sideways, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 42 · price 4,120.67
London range 4118–4133 inside a fading Asia rally; highs stepping lower.
The Asia session rally from the 4103.4 Asia low to 4143.4 has faded. London is trading a 4118–4133 range, capped by the lower-highs line and the 4133.2 London high. Price is back below the ema20 and pressing the 4118.1 London low, which sits at the 61.8% retracement of the Asia rally, with hawkish Fed minutes and a firm USD capping bounces.
Support: 4,118.10, 4,114.40, 4,103.40
Resistance: 4,133.20, 4,143.40
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4118.1 London low and 4114.4 swing low breaks the London range and exposes the 4103.4 Asia low
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 4133.2 London high invalidates the lower-highs read
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC, could materially shift this read
4143.4 Asia high remains the session ceiling
09:32 UTC
Neutral, compressing after Asia rally faded · RSI 47 · price 4,122.81
Lower highs from 4143.39 against higher lows from 4114.35; London range 4118.11–4133.15.
The Asia rally from the 4103.41 Asian low topped at the 4143.39 Asian high. The pullback held the 4114.35 swing low near the 61.8% fib, and mid-London price is coiling between lower highs and higher lows inside the 4118.11 London low to 4133.15 London high. Price sits on the 50% retrace, under EMA20 and flat on EMA50, with RSI(14) near 47 and a firm USD after the hawkish Fed minutes capping bounces.
Support: 4,118.11, 4,114.35, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133.15 London high and the lower-highs line breaks the compression and exposes the 4143.39 Asian high, then the 4150 round number
Failure to hold the 4118.11 London low and the higher-lows line puts the 4114.35 swing low and the 61.8% fib in play; below that, the 4103.41 Asian low
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) during NY hours could resolve the range
Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4143 vs higher lows from 4114, coiling.
Early London is holding inside the Asian range of 4103.41–4143.39. Lower highs off the 4143.39 asian high and higher lows from the 4114.35 swing low are coiling price around the 50% fib of the Asian rally near 4123. The hawkish-Fed, firm-USD backdrop is capping bounces after Wednesday's flush to 4066.52, and RSI(14) at 49 is neutral.
Support: 4,118.11, 4,114.35, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4118 london low, which sits at the 61.8% fib, exposes the 4114.35 swing low and then the 4103.41 asian low
Close above the 4133.15 london high and the falling trendline from the asian high reopens 4143.39
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could break the compression
08:47 UTC
Intraday down from Asian high, compressing · RSI 46 · price 4,124.80
Lower highs from 4143.39; London range 4118–4133 with higher lows.
Asia's rally to the 4143.39 Asian high faded into a pre-London drop to 4114.35. London's 08:15 push was rejected at 4133.15, near the 61.8% retrace, leaving a lower high, while the 4121.11 swing low keeps price coiled around EMA20 as the USD bid on hawkish Fed minutes caps bounces.
Support: 4,121.11, 4,114.35, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4114.35 pre-London low breaks the London range and exposes the 4100 round number
Close above the 4133.15 London high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 4143.39 Asian high back in play
Loss of the 4121.11 swing low ends the higher-low sequence inside London
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC plus Waller and Kashkari Fedspeak could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Sideways, capped below Asian high · RSI 47 · price 4,127.79
London inside Asian range, higher lows off 4114.
Asia rallied from the 4103 asian low to the 4143 asian high, then the pullback held the 4114 swing low inside the 61.8–78.6% zone of the Asian rally fib. London has so far traded a 4118–4133 range between the london low and london high, with RSI(14) neutral near 47. With the USD near 18-month highs, the move is stalling below the Asian high as Waller speaks.
Support: 4,118.11, 4,114.35, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,133.15, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4133 london high puts the 4143 asian high back in play
Break of the 4118 london low and 4114 swing low exposes the 4103 asian low and voids the Asian rally fib hold
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) can push price beyond the current ~$7 ATR range
08:17 UTC
Intraday range, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 48 · price 4,128.55
Compression 4118–4130 below lower-highs line.
Gold rallied through the Asia session from the 4103 asian low to a 4143.39 asian high, where it met rejection. The pre-London pullback held 4114.35, the 38.2% fib of the 4066.52–4143.39 recovery from the post-FOMC Minutes low. Early London is compressing between the 4118 london low and the 4130 london high under a lower-highs line, with RSI(14) neutral near 48 and Fed's Waller due at 08:30 UTC.
Support: 4,118.11, 4,114.35, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,129.98, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4129.98 london high breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 4143.39 asian high back in focus, with 4150 psych above
Failure to hold the 4118 london low and the 38.2% fib at 4114 exposes the 4103 asian low
08:04 UTC
Short-term down, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 38 · price 4,118.76
Asia rally to 4143 fully faded; London open printing lower highs inside the Asian range.
The Asia session leg from the 4103.41 asia low to the 4143.39 asia high met rejection there. Gold has slid back to the 61.8% fib at about 4118.7 during the London open, with a lower high at 4129.98 capping the session and the London low at 4114.35 just below. RSI(14) sits near 38, sub-EMA20/50, as the firm USD and hawkish Fed minutes keep the bounce in check.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,129.98, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC lands within the next two bars and could materially shift this read
M15 close above the 4129.98 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4114.35 london low exposes the 4103.41 asia low and the 4100 psych level
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled volatility point for NY session
07:47 UTC
Intraday lower highs after the Asian spike · RSI 40 · price 4,119.50
Asia rally to 4143.4 fully faded; early London trading around the 61.8% of the rally.
Asia ran from the 4105.5 rally base to a 4143.4 Asian high, then printed lower highs. The pre-London slide found a 4114.35 swing low. The first London bounce saw rejection at 4130 and is back at the 61.8% retrace near 4120, below both EMAs, with the hawkish Fed/USD backdrop still weighing.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,105.47, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,129.98, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4114.35 swing low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4105.5 rally base, then 4100 psych
Close above the 4130 london high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 4143.4 asian high
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) is the next scheduled risk
07:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia · RSI 40 · price 4,124.21
Double top at 4143 broke the 4128.6 neckline; bounce now retesting it from below.
Early London, price is mid-Asian range. The 4143.39/4142.01 asian high double top sold through the 4128.58 neckline to a 4114.35 swing low, and the bounce has stalled on that neckline with lower highs intact and RSI(14) near 40. The tone is still heavy after the hawkish FOMC minutes flush to 4066.52; this bounce has retraced only about half of the Asia rally.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,128.58, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4128.58 neckline and the lower highs trendline invalidates the double top read
Failure to hold the 4114.35 swing low exposes the 4103.41 asian low and 4100 psych
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K)
07:18 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, momentum neutral · RSI 49 · price 4,123.29
Lower highs since 4143.39, still inside 4103–4143 Asian range.
Asia ran from the 4103.41 Asian low to a 4143.39 Asian high, then rejected and printed lower highs into a 4114.35 swing low by London open. Gold remains heavy on the hawkish Fed and a firm USD. Price is now pressing the lower-highs line and the 4126.87 bounce high, sitting below EMA20 and on EMA50, with RSI(14) neutral at 49 and ATR(14) around 650 pips.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.87, 4,134.14, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4126.87 bounce high and the lower-highs line ends the pullback read; the 4134.14 lower high is next overhead.
Failure to hold the 4114.35 swing low, beyond the 78.6% fib of the Asia leg, exposes the 4103.41 Asian low and 4100 psych.
Asian high at 4143.39 caps the session range; a break would invalidate the lower-highs structure.
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read.
07:04 UTC
Pullback within Asian rally, lower highs forming · RSI 38 · price 4,120.67
Lower highs from 4143.39 asian high; holding above 4114 swing low.
The Asian rally off the 4103.41 asian low, a short-covering bounce from Wednesday's hawkish-minutes slide to 4066.52, stalled twice at the 4142–4143 asian high. That micro double top has since retraced price to the 61.8% zone of the asian rally fib near 4120 into London open, with the 4126.87 lower high capping the bounce and the 4114.35 swing low holding. RSI(14) near 38; price is below EMA20 and sitting on EMA50.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.87, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4114.35 swing low extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4103.41 asian low and 4100 psych
Close above the 4126.87 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 4143.39 asian high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
06:47 UTC
Pullback from Asian high, stabilising · RSI 44 · price 4,125.89
Lower highs from 4143.39; twin lows at 4114 holding.
Asia rallied from the 4103.41 asian low to 4143.39 as the USD took profits after the hawkish FOMC minutes. A string of lower highs since then dragged price back to 4114, where twin lows held and the 06:30 UTC bar recovered to 4125. Price now sits near the 50% retracement of that Asia rally fib, just under the lower-highs line near 4127, with London open next.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.73, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4114 twin lows reopens the 4103.41 asian low and the 4100 round number
M15 close above the 4135.7 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4143.39 asian high back into play, with the 4150 rebound cap above
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Double top at Asian high, neckline broken, lower highs.
The USD profit-taking bounce in Asia stalled at the 4143.39 Asian high. The 4142.01 lower high formed a double top, and the 4128.58 neckline gave way into the pre-London hour, taking price below the 61.8% of the Asia rally fib near 4118.7. RSI(14) is near 36 with price under both EMAs. The 4114.63 swing low is the immediate floor, and the 4122.24 minor high capped the last bounce.
Support: 4,114.63, 4,103.41, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,122.24, 4,128.58, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4114.63 swing low exposes the 4103.41 asian low and the 4100.37 minutes low, the post-FOMC Minutes trough
Recovery above the 4128.58 neckline and the descending trendline would neutralise the double top read, with the 4143.39 asian high as the upper cap
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read after London open
Asia range 4128-4143 broken lower; bounce off 61.8% retrace.
Gold's Asia rally ran from the 4103.41 asian low to a 4143.39 asian high as the USD took profits, then held a 4128-4143 range until a break of the range floor at 05:15 UTC. Price found a pullback low at 4116.15, near the 61.8% retrace of the Asia rally, and is now sitting just under the EMA50 around 4122 ahead of London open.
Support: 4,116.15, 4,103.41, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,128.58, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4116.15 pullback low exposes the 4103.41 asian low and the 4100.37 ny swing low
M15 close back above the 4128.58 range floor puts the 4143.39 asian high and 4150 psych back in focus
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Double top at Asia high, neckline 4128.6 broken, pulling back into rally's 61.8%.
Gold climbed from the 4105 asia base to a 4143.39 asia high as the USD took profits, but a 4142 lower high formed a double top. The 05:45 UTC break of the 4128.6 neckline printed a 4116.15 swing low and is now holding near the 61.8% fib of the Asia move. Into the London open, price sits below EMA20 and just under EMA50 with RSI(14) near 36.
Support: 4,116.15, 4,105.47, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,128.58, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4116.15 swing low extends the pullback toward the 4105 asia base, then the 4100 round number
A move back above the 4128.6 neckline and the lower highs line would put the 4143.39 asia high back in view, with 4150 the digest's rebound cap
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high at 4142.01 and a lower low below 4128.58, inside the 4103–4143 Asian range.
The Asia session rally off the 4103.41 asian low stalled at 4143.39. A lower high at 4142.01 and a break of the 4128.58 prior low in the last hour before London open leave price between the 38.2% and 50% retrace of the Asian leg, below EMA20. The bounce from Wednesday's 4066.52 low after the hawkish FOMC Minutes ran on USD profit-taking, and that leg is now fading.
Support: 4,124.53, 4,114.19, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,128.58, 4,143.39
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4128.58 prior low negates the double top read
Failure to hold the 4124.53 swing low exposes the 50% fib near 4123.40, then the 4114.19 range top
Loss of the 4103.41 asian low would put the Asian range break to the downside
A reclaim of the 4143.39 asian high reopens the bounce
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Asia bounce fading, short-term lower high · RSI 39 · price 4,125.51
Double top 4143/4142, 4128.58 neckline broken.
The Asia rally off the 4100.37 swing low, helped by USD profit-taking after the hawkish FOMC Minutes, stalled at the 4143.39 asian high. A lower high at 4142.01 and a break of the 4128.58 broken low now have late-Asia price testing the 38.2% fib. The 4116 rally base sits at the 61.8% retracement just below, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 4,116.03, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,128.58, 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4128.58 broken low negates the double-top break
Failure to hold the 4116 rally base (61.8% fib) exposes the 4100.37 swing low
Reclaiming the 4143.39 asian high puts the 4150 rebound cap back in play
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold recovered in Asia from the 4103.41 asian low as the USD took profits after yesterday's hawkish-Minutes flush to 4066.52. The rally hit rejection at the 4143.39 session high. The pullback held the 4128.58 swing low, close to the 38.2% retrace of the Asia rally fib. Price is coiling between that swing low and the session high into the London open, with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,128.58, 4,116.03, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4128.58 swing low exposes the 4116 breakout low and then the 4103.41 asian low
Close above the 4143.39 session high opens the 4150 round number, where the digest flags rebound caps
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asia rally capped at 4143, tight box 4128.6–4143 with a lower high.
The Asia rally lifted gold from the 4103.4 Asian low to the 4143.4 Asian high, clearing Wednesday's NY high as yields pared post-Minutes gains. Price was rejected at the Asian high, and a 4142 lower high now caps a tight box above the 4128.6 swing low late in Asia. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 and price sits just above EMA20, with ATR around 640 pips.
Support: 4,128.60, 4,123.40, 4,103.40
Resistance: 4,143.40, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4128.6 swing low (38.2% of the Asia rally fib) exposes the fib 50% at 4123.4, with the 4103.4 Asian low further out
Close above the 4143.4 Asian high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4150 round number
Waller at 08:30 UTC (just after London open) and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
04:48 UTC
Intraday recovery, stalling below the asian high · RSI 59 · price 4,133.57
Higher low at 4128.6, lower high at 4142.0; late-Asia coil under 4143.4.
The Asia rally ran from 4105 to a 4143.4 asian high, recovering much of Wednesday's NY slide to 4066 on hawkish Minutes and 5.3% yields. It stalled with a rejection just under the 4144.7 prior high. The pullback held the 38.2% retrace at the 4128.6 swing low, and a lower high at 4142 now has price coiling between 4129 and 4142 into the London open, with RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 4,128.58, 4,114.19, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4143.4 asian high, and the 4144.7 prior high just above it, opens the 4150 round number
Loss of the 4128.6 swing low exposes the 50% retrace near 4124 and the 4114 range top, where the Asia rally launched
A break of the 4103.4 asian low would unwind the Asia rally entirely
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Asia higher-low chain, now a tight range below the session high.
Asia lifted gold from the 4103.4 Asia low through the 4120.5 breakout level and the prior NY high. That reverses part of Wednesday's yield-driven flush to 4066 after the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Late in the Asia session price is coiling between the 4128.6 swing low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the Asian leg, and the 4143.4 Asia high, with RSI(14) cooling to about 58.
Support: 4,128.60, 4,120.50, 4,103.40
Resistance: 4,143.40, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4128.6 swing low breaks the Asian higher-low chain and puts the 4120.5 breakout level and the 50% fib near 4123.4 in play
Close above the 4143.4 Asia high exposes the 4148.2 prior high from Wednesday's open
Loss of the 4103.4 Asia low would erase the full Asian advance
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
04:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing below Asia high · RSI 64 · price 4,136.96
Higher low at 4128.58 after Asia rally; tight coil 4136–4142 late in Asia.
Asia session pushed off the 4103 session low to a 4143.39 asian high, fully retracing Wednesday's NY slide to 4066.52 on the hawkish yields move. The pullback held the 4128.58 swing low, right at the 38.2% of the Asia leg fib, and price is now coiling under the asian high with the 4148 prior high just above.
Support: 4,128.58, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
Close above the 4143.39 asian high and 4148.24 prior high extends the higher-high chain
Loss of the 4128.58 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4103 session low
Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Higher-high/higher-low chain off the 4103 asia low, consolidating below the session high.
Gold rebounded off Wednesday's post-Minutes flush to 4066 as yields pared gains. In the Asia session it broke the early Asian range top at 4114 and ran to a 4143.39 session high. The first pullback held a higher swing low at 4128.58, and price is now coiling just under the session high with RSI(14) easing from the low 70s and the 4148 prior high from Wednesday's open overhead.
Support: 4,128.58, 4,114.19, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,148.24
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4128.58 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 4114 range top
Acceptance above the 4143.39 session high brings the 4148.24 prior high into play
A return inside the early Asian range toward the 4103.41 asia low would negate the breakout
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend off the overnight base, pausing below session high · RSI 64 · price 4,137.26
Higher lows since 4100.37; Asia breakout from 4103–4114 range, 38.2% pullback held.
Late Asia session. Gold broke out of the 4103–4114 overnight range from a 4105.47 asia base as USD and yields eased off their highs, reaching a 4143.39 session high. The pullback held the swing low at 4128.58, near the 38.2% fib. Price is back near 4137, with RSI(14) around 64 and the session high sitting just under yesterday's 4148.24 prior high.
Support: 4,128.58, 4,114.19, 4,105.47
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,148.24, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 4128.58 swing low and the Asia rising trendline invalidates the higher-low chain
M15 close above the 4143.39 session high brings the 4148.24 prior high and the 4150 round number into play
Loss of the 4114.19 range top would erase the Asia breakout and expose the 4105.47 asia base
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields/USD
Asian range break; higher high at 4143.39, higher low at 4128.58.
Asia broke out of its 4103–4114 range from 00:45 UTC, cleared the 4126.92 minutes high and printed a 4143.39 session high. The pullback held 4128.58, near the 38.2% fib, and price is back at 4135 with RSI(14) near 64. The bounce from Wednesday's 4066 low is holding despite the hawkish FOMC Minutes.
Support: 4,128.58, 4,126.92, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,149.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4128.58 pullback low exposes the 4126.92 minutes high and the 50% fib near 4123.40
Break of the 4143.39 session high brings the 4149.21 wed high into view
Loss of the 4103.41 asian low would erase the Asia advance
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Asian range break to a higher high, now retracing toward the breakout area.
Asia session broke above the early-Asian range top at 4114 and Wednesday's NY high at 4126.9. It ran to a session high at 4143.4, rebounding from the post-Minutes two-month lows. A rejection there pulled price back to about 4130, near the 38.2% of the Asian rally fib, with RSI(14) cooled to ~58.
Support: 4,126.92, 4,114.19, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,149.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4126.9 NY high puts the breakout in doubt and exposes the 4114 asian top
Close above the 4143.4 session high resumes the higher-high chain toward Wednesday's 4149.2 prior high
Loss of the 4103.4 asian low unwinds the entire Asia rally
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend off 4066 low, stalling at session high · RSI 66 · price 4,135.64
Higher lows since NY; Asia broke out of its early range and above the NY high.
Gold has rebuilt from the 4066.52 intraday low, set as yields rose. Asia broke out of its early 4103–4114 range from 00:45 UTC, with the asia top at 4114.19, and cleared the NY high at 4126.92 as the dollar softened slightly. Late in the Asia session the move met a sharp rejection at the 4143.39 session high, with price dipping to a 4131.95 swing low. Price now sits mid-pullback with RSI(14) cooling from the high 60s.
Support: 4,131.95, 4,126.92, 4,114.19
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,149.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4126.92 ny high (near the 23.6% fib) would mark a failed breakout retest; the 38.2% fib at ~4114 aligns with the asia top
Hold of the 4131.95 swing low keeps the higher-low chain intact
Close above the 4143.39 session high opens the 4149.21 prior high
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
HH/HL chain off the 4103 Asia low, pressing into the 4143–4149 prior high zone.
The Asia session broke above the early-Asia range (4103–4114, asian high at 4114.2) as USD softened. Price has since retraced all of Wednesday's NY-hours drop from 4124 to 4066, printing successive higher highs into a 4143.4 session high. The 4135 spike high is now acting as the latest higher low, with RSI(14) near 74 and bar ranges narrowing just under the 4149.2 prior high.
Support: 4,135.00, 4,118.80, 4,114.20
Resistance: 4,143.40, 4,149.20
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4135 spike high breaks the HH/HL chain
Loss of the 4118.8 pullback low (61.8% fib) unwinds the Asia breakout toward the 4114.2 asian high
Close above the 4149.2 prior high clears Wednesday's early range top; rejection there leaves a lower-high risk
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pausing at session high · RSI 73 · price 4,136.69
Higher lows since 4066.52 flush, Asian range broken higher.
Late in the Asia session, gold broke out of its 4103–4114 Asian range with a $35 leg to a 4140.22 session high. The move reclaimed the 4120s shelf that gave way in Wednesday's NY-open flush to 4066.52, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes drew only a muted reaction. RSI(14) is near 73, and price is pausing just under the session high, inside the prior day's London-hours 4137–4139 zone.
Support: 4,126.90, 4,114.19, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,140.22, 4,151.75
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4140.22 session high opens the 4151.75 prior high
Loss of the 4126.9 prior swing (near fib 38.2%) puts the 4114 asian range top back in play
Break below the 4103.41 asian low and the rising lows trendline negates the recovery structure
Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs off 4066.52 low; Asian range and prior high cleared.
The Asia session broke the 4103–4114 Asian range at 00:45 UTC and cleared Wednesday's 4126.92 prior high. That extends the rebound off the 4066.52 low, which printed as yields and USD pushed gold lower, to a 4139.45 session high. RSI(14) near 73 is hot but not extreme, and price is pausing just under the 4150 round number.
Support: 4,126.92, 4,114.19, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,139.45, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4126.92 prior high keeps the breakout intact; a slide back inside the Asian range below 4114.19 would mark a false break
Rejection at the 4139.45 session high or the 4150 round number leaves the rebound looking like short-covering only
Loss of the 4100.37 swing low, below the 50% of the rebound fib near 4103, negates the higher-low structure
Waller at 08:30 UTC and jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Mid-Asia session, gold broke out of the 4103–4114 Asian range at 00:45 UTC and cleared yesterday's 4126.92 NY high. That fully retraces the yield-driven slide to 4066.52 that followed the hawkish-Minutes USD bid. The last three bars are stalling just under the 4137.46 session high and the 4139.47 London high, with RSI(14) near 71 and ATR(14) around 700 pips.
Support: 4,126.92, 4,114.19, 4,103.41
Resistance: 4,137.46, 4,139.47, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Holding above the 4126.92 ny high keeps the Asia breakout intact; a slip back below brings the 38.2% fib near 4124.5 and the 4114.19 asian high into play
An M15 close above the 4139.47 london high clears the session high cluster and leaves the 4150 round number as the next reference
Loss of the 4103.41 asian low would mark the breakout as a false break
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read via long-end yields
01:47 UTC
Intraday rebound, extended into early Asia · RSI 73 · price 4,130.57
Asia breakout above the overnight 4100–4115 range and the 4127 prior high.
Early Asia session broke out of the overnight 4100–4115 range in two bars. It cleared the 4126.92 prior high and printed a 4135.05 Asia high, the best level since yesterday's 12:30 UTC flush to 4066.52. The move runs against the hawkish FOMC Minutes backdrop and reads as short-covering, with RSI(14) near 73 and price holding just under the Asia high on a series of higher lows.
Support: 4,126.92, 4,114.19, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.05, 4,139.47, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4127 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Clearance of the 4135 Asia high and the 4139.5 swing high opens the 4150 round number
Loss of the 4114 range top exposes the 38.2% fib near 4109 and the higher lows trendline, then 4100 psych
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Early Asia broke above its 4103–4114 range and spiked to a 4135.05 session high. A rejection wick took it back to 4121 before price rebuilt to 4128.7, now holding above the 4126.9 NY high with RSI(14) near 69. The move extends the recovery off yesterday's NY-session flush to 4066.5, despite the hawkish-Minutes USD and yields backdrop.
Support: 4,126.92, 4,114.19, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,135.05, 4,139.47
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4114 asian high puts price inside the Asian range and negates the range break
Acceptance above the 4135 session high opens the 4139.5 london high
Loss of the rising lows line and the 4100 swing low (near the 50% fib of the 4066–4135 recovery) resumes the lower structure
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Early in the Asia session, gold broke the 4103–4114 Asian range and spiked to a 4135.05 spike high through the NY high at 4126.92. That spike was rejected straight back to 4119. Rising lows from the 4066.52 yield-driven selloff low remain intact, RSI(14) is near 59 and price sits above both EMAs.
Support: 4,114.19, 4,103.41, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.92, 4,135.05
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the asian high at 4114.19 returns price to the Asian range and negates the break
Hold above the rising lows trendline (~4111) keeps the recovery structure; a break exposes the asian low at 4103.41
Loss of the 4100 round number would put the 4066.52 low back in focus
Close above the ny high at 4126.92 reopens the 4135.05 spike high
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
00:47 UTC
Neutral, compressing after recovery · RSI 44 · price 4,106.42
Tight Asian range under lower highs.
Early Asia is coiling in a 4103–4114 range, from the asian low to the asian high, just above the 4100.37 swing low. Price is near the 38.2% fib of the 4066.52 wed low to 4126.92 swing high recovery. Lower highs from 4126.92 cap the bounce while hawkish FOMC Minutes keep USD and yields firm; RSI(14) is neutral at 44 with price just under both EMAs.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.19, 4,119.95, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 61.8% fib near 4089.6
Close above the 4114.19 asian high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 4119.95 lower high and 4126.92 swing high in play
A loss of 4089.6 would bring the 4066.52 wed low back into focus
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, then Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Flat, consolidating after sell-off · RSI 50 · price 4,107.04
4100–4127 range above the 4066 day low; lower highs since the rebound high.
Gold is building a tight Asia session range of 4103.41–4114.19, sitting on flat EMAs with RSI(14) near 50. This follows Wednesday's yields-and-USD sell-off to the 4066.52 day low. Since the 4126.92 rebound high the chart has printed lower highs, while the 4100.37 swing low near the 38.2% retrace of the rebound has held.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,114.19, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low breaks the consolidation floor and exposes the 4066.52 day low
Close above the 4114.19 asian high and the lower-highs line puts the 4126.92 rebound high back in focus
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Early Asian range 4103-4114 under a lower-highs trendline from 4126.92.
Early Asia session is boxed between the 4103.41 asian low and the 4114.19 asian high. This follows the early-NY flush to 4066.52 and the recovery to the 4126.92 spike high, with gold heavy on yields and USD strength after hawkish FOMC Minutes. Price is hugging EMA20 with RSI(14) near 54, holding above the 38.2% fib of the 4066-4127 leg (~4104), while the lower-highs trendline caps rallies.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37
Resistance: 4,114.19, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4100.37 swing low breaks the Asian floor and exposes the 50% fib near 4096.7
Close above the 4114.19 asian high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 4126.92 spike high back in view
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Sideways after NY flush and rebound · RSI 54 · price 4,109.02
Tight Asian range inside a 4100–4127 band, highs edging lower.
The yields-and-USD flush to 4066.52 during NY hours retraced to a 4126.92 rebound high. Since then price has compressed into a 4100–4127 band with lower highs. Asia session is contained between the asian low at 4103.41 and the asian high at 4114.19, holding above the 38.2% fib near 4103.9, with RSI(14) neutral around 54 and price sitting on flat EMAs.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.37, 4,096.72
Resistance: 4,114.19, 4,126.92
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4100.37 swing low exposes the fib 50% at 4096.72 and the 4095 area cited in the macro read
Close above the asian high at 4114.19 and the lower-highs line puts the 4126.92 rebound high back in focus
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC could break this compression via the yields channel