21:08 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late-August peak · RSI 33 · price 4,108.95
LH/LL chain from 4,697; price pressing the two-month low above the July base.
Gold has carved lower highs at 4,511, the 4,400 sept high and the 4,227 lower high since the 25 Aug peak at 4,697. That sequence tracks a descending trendline now near 4,150-4,200, with price below both EMA20 and EMA50. The 28 Sep break under 4,235 extended to a 2-month low at 4,066 on Wednesday as hawkish FOMC minutes and multi-decade-high long-end yields kept pressure on. This week's bounce stalled at the 4,184 week high, and price is holding in the low 4,100s, just above the top of the July base and well below the 38.2% mark of the Aug-Oct decline fib near 4,307.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4,066 2-month low extends the LL chain and exposes 4,000 psych, then the 3,943 june low
- Daily close above the 4,227 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens a retest of the 4,307 decline fib 38.2%
- A move back through the 4,184 week high would show the bounce clearing this week's rejection
- Fri 14:00 UTC UMich sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations could shift yields and this read
- RSI near the low 30s: a sub-30 reading would mark the first oversold daily print of the decline