21:08 UTC
Downtrend from August peak, stabilising near lows · RSI 39 · price 4,195.03
Lower highs since 4696; two-week range 4066–4227 below EMAs.
Gold has carved a lower-high sequence since the 4696 late-August peak, and the 28 September breakdown below the 4250 base set a 4066–4227 range over the last two weeks. Price sits below the EMA20 (~4228) and a rolling-over EMA50 near 4260. Friday's bounce off the 4066.52 2-month low to 4195 came on softer yields and a weak UoM print. It leaves price just under the 23.6% fib (~4215) and the range top, with RSI making a higher low against the lower price low, a mild bullish divergence.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,066.52, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,227.28, 4,260.00, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
- Daily close above the 4227 range top and the descending lower-highs trendline (~4245) would challenge the downtrend read and put the ema50 near 4260 in focus
- A close back above the ema50 opens the path toward the 4399.53 lower high
- Failure to hold the 4110 range floor and the 4066.52 2-month low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3942.64 june low