21:08 UTC
Downtrend stalling, rebound testing range top · RSI 66 · price 4,195.03
Lower-high trendline broken; 4105–4227 range after false break to 4066.
Lower highs at 4399.53, 4315.66 and 4227.28 set the three-week downtrend. Price has since lifted above that lower-high trendline after a false break of the 4105 range floor down to the 4066.52 2-month low. The rebound on softer yields and the weak UoM print stalled at the 4207 swing high, just under the 4227 range top and the 61.8% fib of the 4316→4067 leg near 4220. EMA20 (~4159) is still below the ema50 (~4168) but curling up with price above both, and ATR(14) near 27 is compressed versus the late-September expansion.
Support: 4,168.00, 4,105.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,207.48, 4,227.28, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
- H4 close above the 4227 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path back toward the 4315 lower high
- Rejection at the 4207 swing high puts the ema50 near 4168 and then the 4105 range floor back in focus
- A break of the 2-month low at 4066.52 would resume the downtrend
- An EMA20/EMA50 ema cross higher would confirm the swing turn off the lows
- US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack, Waller and Bowman speak beforehand