21:08 UTC
Downtrend from late-August peak, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 4,135.91
Lower highs since Aug 25, price testing the top of the July base.
Gold has printed a series of lower highs since the Aug 25 peak at 4696.74. Friday's rebound after the 29K NFP miss was rejected at 4227, where the lower-highs trendline meets the 61.8% fib of the June–August rally, as 10y yields near 5.3% outweighed the soft data. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI near 39, holding just above the 2-month low at 4110.84. Beneath that, the July base runs from the 4000 round number down to the june low at 3942.64.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,000.00, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 2-month low at 4110 (78.6% fib ~4104) exposes the 4000 round number, then the 3942 june low
- Daily close above the 61.8% fib at 4227 and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence; the 4399 lower high and the 4510 sep high are the next structural caps
- FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields and USD
- Thursday's Waller/Musalem remarks and jobless claims, plus Friday's UoM inflation expectations, could reprice December hike odds