Higher lows since 4066 under a lower-high line from Tuesday's peak.
Gold was rejected at the 4183.89 week high on Tuesday and flushed to a 4066.52 week low before Wednesday's NY open as yields and the USD firmed. It then rebuilt through Thursday as yields eased, printing higher lows at 4100 and 4105.45 (thu low). Price sits at 4137.64, just under the 4141.32 weekly open and the 61.8% retrace of the week's drop, after Thursday's NY-session push to 4145.97 (thu high) was rejected. A flattening ema20/50 near 4128 and RSI(14) around 57 point to consolidation between the higher-low trendline and the lower-high line off Tuesday's peak.
Support: 4,128.00, 4,105.45, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,145.97, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141.32 weekly open and 4145.97 thu high breaks the lower-high line and puts 4183.89 week high back in view
Loss of the ema20/50 zone near 4128 returns price to the lower half of the recovery
Failure to hold 4105.45 thu low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4066.52 week low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4183.89, higher lows from 4066.52, compressing.
Gold printed the week high at 4183.89 in Tuesday's NY session, then sold off through Wednesday into the NY session to a 4066.52 week low as yields and the USD firmed and hawkish FOMC minutes added pressure. Thursday's recovery came as yields and the USD eased, but rallies stalled at the 4145.97 Thu high, just above the 4141.32 weekly open, keeping the lower-highs line intact. Price is holding above EMA(20) near 4126 with RSI(14) around 56, sitting near the 50% retracement of the week's drop. Higher lows at 4100 and the 4105 Thu low show demand stepping in on dips.
Support: 4,125.80, 4,105.45, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,145.97, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146 Thu high and the lower-highs line would put the 4183.89 week high back in view
Failure to hold the 4105 Thu low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 4066.52 week low
Repeated closes back below EMA(20) near 4126 would point to the consolidation fading from the weekly open
UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold opened the week at 4141 and has been unable to hold rallies: Tuesday's NY push to the 4184 week high faded, and Wednesday's flush to the 4066.52 week low came as hawkish FOMC Minutes added to yield pressure. Since then price has built higher lows into a 4105–4146 band. During Thursday's NY session it swung from the 4105 thu low to a rejection at the 4146 thu high, near the 61.8% retrace of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop. Price sits just above the ema20 around 4126 with RSI(14) near 55, still capped below the weekly open.
Support: 4,126.00, 4,105.45, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,145.97, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146 thu high and the 4141 weekly open breaks the lower-highs line and opens the path toward the 4184 week high
Failure to hold the 4105 thu low breaks the higher-lows sequence and puts the 4066.52 week low back in view
Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 near 4126 would show the bounce losing traction inside the band
UMich sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower high at 4184, then a 4105–4146 range with converging trendlines.
Tuesday's NY-session rally to the 4184 week high faded. Wednesday's slide to the 4066 week low came against the hawkish FOMC Minutes backdrop, extending the run of lower lows from Monday's 4141 week open. Thursday's rebound has retraced 50–61.8% of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop. Supply capped it twice at 4143–4146 (thu high), once in the Asia session and again in NY hours, while demand held the 4105–4110 area (thu low). Price is back above ema20 near 4125, with RSI(14) at 55, and is compressing between the lower highs and higher lows lines.
Resistance: 4,141.30, 4,146.00, 4,183.90
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4146 thu high and the lower highs trendline reopens the 4184 week high
Failure to hold 4105 thu low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 4066 week low
Repeated closes back below ema20 and the 4141 week open keep the range capped
UMich sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing after flush · RSI 51 · price 4,128.76
Lower highs from Tuesday's peak, higher lows off Wednesday's low; pennant.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4,183.89 week high. The hawkish FOMC Minutes drove a NY-hours flush on Wednesday to the 4,066.52 week low. Since then, higher lows at 4,100–4,105 and a capped Thursday bounce have formed a pennant, with price at 4,128 sitting on a flat EMA(20) near 4,124 (EMA(50) almost level with it) and RSI(14) neutral at 51. The Asia-session rebound on easing yields stalled near the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop. Supply capped price between the weekly open at 4,141 and the 4,146 thu high during NY hours.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,146 thu high breaks the lower-high sequence and the pennant top, exposing the 4,183.89 week high
Failure to hold the 4,105 thu low and the higher-low line puts the 4,066.52 week low back in focus
Sustained trade back below the ema20 near 4,124 shifts the pennant toward its lower boundary
UoM Sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4184; 4105-4146 consolidation above the week low.
Tuesday's London-session rally to the 4184 week high faded, and early NY hours Wednesday broke the market down to a 4066 week low as yields climbed into the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Thursday's bounce on easing yields stalled near the 61.8% fib of that drop, with rejection at the 4146 Thu high just above the 4141 weekly open, so the lower-high sequence is intact. Price sits marginally above EMA20 (~4124) and EMA50 with RSI(14) flat near 52, consolidating between the Thu low at 4105 and the weekly open.
Support: 4,124.00, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,145.97, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146 Thu high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path toward the 4184 week high
Failure to hold the 4105 Thu low and the rising support line exposes the 4066 week low
Price holding or losing EMA20 near 4124 on pullbacks defines whether the consolidation keeps a higher-low base
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs from Tuesday's peak; Thursday range 4105–4143 with higher lows off 4066.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4183.89 week high. Wednesday's slide into the London-NY transition reached the 4066.52 week low as USD and yields firmed around the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Thursday has held a 4105–4143 range, with the range top sitting just above the 4141 weekly open and near the 61.8% fib of the week high-low move. Price is oscillating around EMA(20) and just under EMA(50), RSI(14) is near 47, and higher lows at 4100 and 4105 off the week low keep the rebound intact beneath the lower-high trendline.
Support: 4,105.45, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,143.39, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4143.39 range top and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the path to the 4183.89 week high
Failure to hold the 4105.45 range low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 4066.52 week low
Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC and Friday's 14:00 UTC Michigan sentiment plus inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs off the 4183.89 week high; Thursday bounce capped near 61.8% retrace.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's late-session week high at 4183.89. The decline accelerated Wednesday in the London-NY transition with a flush to the 4066.52 week low as hawkish FOMC Minutes repricing lifted the USD and yields. Thursday's Asia-session rebound stalled at 4143, close to the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday decline, and a NY-session rejection at 4140 has returned price below EMA(20) and the 4141 weekly open, to the 38.2% level just above the day low, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,125.20, 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4110 day low and the 4100 round number would put the 4066.52 week low back in play
Recovery above the fib 50% at 4125 and the 4141 weekly open would break the lower-high trendline and reopen the 4183.89 week high
Fed's Musalem 17:40 UTC today and Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment plus inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's NY-session peak at the 4183.89 tuesday high. Wednesday's London-NY transition flush to the 4066.52 2-month low came as yields and the USD climbed around the hawkish FOMC Minutes. Thursday's rebound was capped twice at 4140–4143, the weekly open and the 61.8% retracement of the Tue high–2-month low drop. One cap came in Asia and one in the first hour of NY. Price is now compressing around a flat EMA(20) near 4123 with RSI(14) at ~50, between the thursday low at 4110 and the lower-highs line.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141 weekly open and the lower-highs line breaks Thursday's cap and opens the path toward the 4183.89 tuesday high
Failure to hold the 4110 thursday low exposes the 4100 round number and then the 4066.52 2-month low
An H1 close below the rebound line from the 2-month low ends Thursday's recovery structure
Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC): explicit backing for another hike, with long-end yields rising, could materially shift this read
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations are the next scheduled risk for the range
Lower highs since Tuesday, higher lows off Wednesday's flush; contracting range.
Gold has printed lower highs all week, from Tuesday's 4183.89 week high to Thursday's Asia-session 4143.39, which stalled just above the 4141 weekly open. Wednesday's flush to the 4066.52 week low on hawkish-Fed and yield pressure was quickly reclaimed above 4100 psych. Since then, London and early NY trade has compressed between the rising lows line off 4066 and the lower-highs trendline near 4128–4130, with the Thu low at 4110 underneath. Price sits on the 50% retrace of the Tue–Wed drop, just above EMA(20) and below EMA(50), and RSI(14) near 52 reads neutral; the firm 197K jobless claims print added USD support without breaking the range.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4141 weekly open breaks the sequence of lower highs and puts the 61.8% retrace and 4183.89 week high in view
Loss of the rising lows line and the 4110 Thu low exposes 4100 psych and the 4066.52 week low
Fed's Kashkari (14:40Z) and Musalem (17:40Z) could materially shift this read through yields and the USD
Fri 14:00Z UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are a risk to the Tue–Wed drop retracement structure
Lower highs from Tuesday's 4183.89 to Thursday's 4143.39; tight 4110–4143 range above Wednesday's 2-month low.
The week opened at 4141.32, and the dominant move came Wednesday: a slide from 4166 to a 4066.52 2-month low into the NY open as the hawkish-Fed and rising-yield backdrop weighed. Thursday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 4143.39 (thu high), just below the 61.8% retracement of the tue high to Wednesday-low drop and near the weekly open, then faded through London as yields and the USD firmed and claims printed a firm 197K. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 4122, boxed between the 4110 day low and the fib 50% at 4125, with RSI(14) flat around 47.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,125.21, 4,143.39, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4143 thu high and the lower-high trendline would break the lower-high sequence and expose the 4183.89 tue high
Failure to hold the 4110 day low and the 4100 psych area would put the 4066.52 2-month low back in play
Repeated H1 closes back above the fib 50% at 4125 would shift the read from drift lower to range
Fed's Kashkari at 14:40Z and Musalem at 17:40Z could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
Friday 14:00Z UoM sentiment and inflation expectations are the next scheduled catalyst
Lower highs since Tuesday, compressing below EMA50.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4183.89 week high. Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 4066.52 two-month low came as hawkish Fed repricing and firm yields weighed. Thursday's Asia rebound stalled at 4143.39, just above the weekly open at 4141.32 and the 61.8% level of the drop fib, and price has since compressed between the 4109.99 day low and EMA50 near 4128.5, with RSI(14) near 51 and price sitting on EMA20 beneath the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 4,109.99, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,128.50, 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30Z, then Kashkari at 14:40Z and Musalem at 17:40Z, could materially shift this read
An H1 close above EMA50 and the lower-highs trendline near 4130 opens a retest of the weekly open at 4141.32
Failure to hold the 4109.99 day low exposes the 4100 handle and the 4066.52 two-month low
Acceptance above 4143.39 breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4183.89 week high back in view
Lower highs from 4183.89; higher lows off 4066.52, range tightening.
Gold has printed lower highs all week. Tuesday's NY-session relief high at 4183.89 was fully reversed into Wednesday's flush to the 4066.52 wed low as hawkish FOMC Minutes and elevated yields weighed. Thursday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 4143.39, the thu high, just above the 61.8% fib of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop, and London has faded it back below the 50% fib at 4125, with price pinned at a flattening EMA(20) near 4122 and RSI(14) neutral around 49. The thu low near 4110 and the 4100 psych level mark the lower edge of a tightening structure between lower highs and higher lows.
Support: 4,110.00, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,125.20, 4,143.39, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4143.39 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 4183.89 tue high back in view
Failure to hold the 4110 thu low and 4100 psych breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 4066.52 wed low
Repeated H1 closes back above the 50% fib at 4125 would shift price above EMA(20) inside the range
Lower highs since Tuesday; 4114–4143 chop above the week low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4183.89 week high, and Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 4066.52 week low came as hawkish FOMC Minutes and near multi-decade-high yields kept the USD bid. Thursday's Asia-session bounce stalled at 4143.39, just above the weekly open and near the 61.8% retracement of the Tue–Wed drop. Price now sits flat on EMA(20) near 4122 and below EMA(50), with RSI(14) back near 52 after recovering from Wednesday's low.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4141 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's lower-high sequence and bring the 4183.89 week high back into view
Failure to hold the 4114 session low exposes the 4100 round number and then the 4066.52 week low
Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC, then Kashkari at 14:40 UTC and Musalem at 17:40 UTC, could materially shift this read through yields and the USD
Lower highs from 4183.89, rebound capped at 61.8% fib.
Gold has carved lower highs since Tuesday's NY-session week high at 4183.89. The hawkish FOMC minutes and firm yields drove Wednesday's flush to the 4066.52 wed low, with a quick recovery back above the 4100 psych level. The Asia-session rebound stalled at 4143.39 (asia high), just above the 61.8% retracement of the week's down-leg. Since the London open price has slipped back under the EMA(20) near 4121.6 and sits on the 4114.35 session low, with RSI(14) flat around 48.
Support: 4,114.35, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,121.60, 4,143.39, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the ema20 at 4121.6 and then the 4143.39 asia high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the 61.8% cap
Failure to hold the 4114.35 session low and the 4100 psych level puts the 4066.52 wed low back in play
Reclaiming the 4183.89 week high would negate the lower-highs structure
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC, Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) and Musalem at 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs 4,183.89 → 4,143.39 after a lower low at 4,066.52.
The week has ground lower through a series of failed rebounds. Tuesday's NY-hours push to the 4,183.89 week high reversed, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes drove Wednesday's flush to the 4,066.52 week low. Thursday's Asia-session recovery stalled at the 4,143.39 thu high, just above the 61.8% of the Tue-Wed fib, setting a second lower high on the descending trendline; price has slipped back under the ema20 near 4,123 with RSI(14) at ~47, sitting on the 4,114 session low with the 4,100 round number below.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,143.39 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reclaims the 4,141 weekly open
Failure to hold the 4,114 session low and the 4,100 round number re-exposes the 4,066.52 week low
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
A reclaim of the 4,183.89 week high would invalidate the lower-high sequence
Lower highs from 4183.89 week high; Asia rebound rejected near 61.8% fib.
Since the 4141.32 week open, the dominant move has been failed rebounds. Tuesday's NY-session push to the 4183.89 week high reversed, and Wednesday's London-NY transition flush hit the 4066.52 week low as yields reached 24-year highs, with the hawkish FOMC Minutes later keeping the recovery below 4127. The Asia-session bounce stalled at the 4143.39 Asia high, just above the 61.8% fib and under the lower-high trendline, and has slipped back to the EMA(20) near 4122 and below the fib 50% at 4125, with RSI(14) back under 50.
Support: 4,103.41, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,125.20, 4,143.39, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4103.41 day low exposes the 4100 round number and the 4066.52 week low
Reclaim of the fib 50% at 4125 and EMA(20) reopens the 4143.39 Asia high; a break of the lower-high trendline there would alter the downtrend read
Close above the 4183.89 week high invalidates the lower-high sequence
Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce in Asia · RSI 50 · price 4,131.88
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday; bounce testing the weekly open.
Gold has printed lower highs from Friday's jobs-data spike to 4227, then Tuesday's 4183.89 week high and Thursday's 4143 Asia high. Wednesday's NY-open flush to the 4066.52 week low extended the lower-low sequence as yields and the USD pushed higher around the hawkish FOMC Minutes, before price reclaimed the 4100 psych level. The Asia-session bounce has lifted price back above the ema20 near 4123 and up to the 4141 weekly open, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday-Wednesday drop. RSI(14) has recovered to about 50, and price is sitting right on EMA(50).
Support: 4,123.40, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4141 weekly open and the lower-highs trendline would break this week's lower-high sequence and bring the 4183.89 week high back into view
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4123 puts the 4100 psych level back in play; a break of the 4066.52 week low extends the lower-low sequence
Waller at 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Musalem at 17:40 UTC is a further event risk during NY hours
04:05 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound testing the 61.8% retracement · RSI 60 · price 4,137.17
Lower highs since Friday; failed break below 4100 reclaimed.
Gold has printed lower highs since Friday's NFP spike to 4227.28. Tuesday's 4183.89 week high capped the bounce, and Wednesday's NY-session flush reached the 4066.52 week low as hawkish FOMC Minutes and multi-decade-high long yields weighed. The push below the 4100 round number failed quickly, and the Thursday Asia-session rebound has lifted price back above ema20 (~4122) and EMA(50) to test the 61.8% fib near 4139 and the 4141 week open, with RSI(14) back near 60 from sub-30 on Wednesday.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141 week open and the 61.8% fib shifts focus to the 4169.93 wed high
A break of the lower-high trendline (~4160) and the 4183.89 week high would invalidate the lower-highs read
Slipping back below ema20 near 4122 re-exposes the 4100 round number and the 4066.52 week low
Waller 08:30 UTC and Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Friday; Asia rebound testing weekly open.
Gold has printed lower highs from Friday's 4227 payrolls spike through Tuesday's 4183.89 week high. Wednesday's yield-driven slide in NY hours set a 4066.52 week low, and the hawkish FOMC Minutes kept price pinned near 4100 into the close. The Asia session bounce has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 4118 and EMA(50) near 4131, into the weekly open at 4141, which sits alongside the 61.8% fib of the Tue–Wed drop. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s.
Support: 4,118.00, 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the weekly open at 4141 and the 61.8% fib breaks the corrective read and opens the wed high at 4170
Rejection at 4141 followed by a loss of EMA(20) near 4118 keeps the downtrend intact, with 4100 psych and the 4066.52 week low below
Lower-highs line, now near 4170, caps structure while intact; a break above it puts the 4184 week high in play
Waller 08:30 UTC, Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via long-end yields
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, Asia bounce in progress · RSI 55 · price 4,133.87
Lower highs from 4183.89 to 4066.52 week low; retracing into 50–61.8% fib.
Gold has printed lower highs since Tuesday's 4183.89 NY-session week high. Wednesday's London-NY transition flush reached the 4066.52 week low as long-end yields and USD extended on the hawkish FOMC Minutes. The Asia session has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 4120 and through the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) recovering to ~54, but the bounce now sits between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the Tue–Wed drop, just under the 4141 weekly open.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,141.32, 4,169.93, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4141 weekly open and 61.8% fib (~4139) opens the 4169.93 wed high, then the 4183.89 week high
Slip back below EMA(20) at 4120 returns focus to the 4100 round number; failure there exposes the 4066.52 week low
Waller (08:30 UTC), jobless claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) and Musalem (17:40 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
Lower highs since Friday; tight 4100–4127 base after Wednesday's flush.
Gold opened the week at 4141 and Tuesday's NY-session squeeze stalled at the 4184 week high. Wednesday then sold off into the NY session as long-end yields and USD climbed, flushing to a 4066 week low. Hawkish FOMC Minutes kept the rebound capped below the 4127 bounce high. Thursday's Asia session has lifted price back above EMA(20) near 4118 and into the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Wednesday drop, still under EMA(50) at about 4131 and the descending lower-highs line from Friday.
Support: 4,118.10, 4,100.40
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,141.32, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4127 bounce high and EMA(50) opens the 61.8% at 4139 and the weekly open at 4141
Failure to hold EMA(20) and psych 4100 returns focus to the 4066 week low
Lower-highs trendline near 4160 remains the cap while the 4184 week high stands
Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC, jobless claims 12:30 UTC and Musalem 17:40 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower high at 4127 after 4184 week high; tight 4100-4115 hold above Wednesday's 4066 low.
Tuesday's London-NY rally to the 4184 week high was fully reversed on Wednesday. Gold slid through the 4141 weekly open and spiked to a 4066 week low in the first hour of NY as yields and the USD extended on hawkish FOMC Minutes. The recovery met rejection at a 4127 bounce high, near the 50% retracement of that drop, and price is now compressing around 4110 just under ema20 with RSI(14) in the low 40s, while the 4100 round number has held through two dips since.
Support: 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.92, 4,141.32
What it said to watch
Waller (08:30 UTC) and Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC, f/c 200K) can reset this read; Musalem follows at 17:40 UTC
H1 close below the 4100 round number exposes the 4066 week low; failure there extends the lower-low sequence
H1 close above the 4127 bounce high breaks the lower highs trendline and puts the 4141 weekly open back in play
Repeated closes back above ema20 would shift the compression from a pause in the downtrend to a base