Gold has fully reversed Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 4066.52 two-month low, breaking above the thu high at 4145.97 during Friday's Asia session as softer yields and the Michigan sentiment miss drove the 4066–4207 rally. Since the 4207.48 week high, price has held a 4168–4202 band, with the friday low intact through the NY open and the session high at 4202.09 marking repeated rejection at the 4200 lid. Price sits above EMA(20) near 4182 and above EMA(50) on a higher-lows trendline, with RSI(14) at 64, off its Friday highs.
Support: 4,182.00, 4,168.57, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,202.09, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4207.48 week high would break the 4200 cap that has held through Friday's session
Loss of the friday low at 4168.57 and the higher-lows trendline points back to the thu high at 4145.97 and the 38.2% of the 4066–4207 rally near 4154
Sustained trade below ema20 near 4182 would mark the first momentum fade since the breakout
Weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines carry gap risk into Monday's open; Fed's Hammack speaks Mon 16:50 UTC
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 4066 low, retesting week high.
Gold has reversed Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 4066.52 two-month low, putting in higher lows through Thursday before a Friday Asia-session breakout above the 4145.97 thu high ran to a 4207.48 week high as yields and the USD eased. London's pullback to the 4168.57 friday low found the rising ema20, a shallow dip that held well above the 38.2% level of the Wednesday-Friday rally fib. NY has rotated back into the 4200 psych cap, but RSI(14) near 68 against 80+ on the first test marks a bearish divergence on closes.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4207.48 week high clears the 4200 psych cap and voids the divergence read
Break below the ema20 and the 4168.57 friday low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 4145.97 thu high
Weekend gap risk on Iran/Hormuz headlines with price sitting at 4200 into the Friday close
US CPI Wed Oct 14 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read; Fed's Hammack Mon and Waller Tue precede it
18:06 UTC
Uptrend off Wednesday low, pausing under 4207 · RSI 66 · price 4,196.71
Higher lows since Wed; 4168-4207 range below week high.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low. In Friday's Asia session it broke through Tuesday's 4183.89 prior high to a 4207.48 week high as US yields and the USD eased. The dip into the NY open to the 4168.57 swing low held above the higher-low trendline, and price is back above EMA(20) near 4184 with RSI(14) around 66, while supply has capped the $4,200 area into the weekly close.
Support: 4,184.00, 4,168.57, 4,137.00
Resistance: 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4207.48 week high clears the $4,200 area cap that stalled Friday's rally
Loss of the 4168.57 swing low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 50% fib of the Wed-Fri rally near 4137
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) around 4184 would turn the consolidation heavier
Fed's Hammack (Mon 16:50 UTC) and US CPI (Wed 12:30 UTC, f/c 3.6% y/y) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 4066.52; breakout above Tuesday high now consolidating.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's NY-session flush to the 4066.52 two-month low. Friday's Asia session then broke above the 4183.89 Tuesday high as US yields and the USD eased. Since then price has consolidated between the 4168.57 Friday low and the 4207.48 week high, with the 4200 round number capping two attempts; EMA(20) near 4176 held the NY-session dip and RSI(14) sits near 61.
Support: 4,183.89, 4,176.30, 4,168.57
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4207.48 week high clears the 4200 round number and ends the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 4183.89 Tuesday high on a closing basis turns Friday's breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4168.57 Friday low exposes the 38.2% fib of the Wed-Fri rally near 4153.6 and the higher-low trendline around 4140
Fed speakers Hammack (Mon) and Waller (Tue), then US CPI on Wed 14 Oct at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%), could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 4066.5; Tuesday's 4183.9 high broken Friday, capped at 4207.5 week high.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's NY-hours flush to the 4066.5 two-month low. Friday's Asia session cleared Tuesday's 4183.9 high and ran to a 4207.5 week high as US yields and the dollar eased, but the spike was rejected just above the 4200 psych level. The London pullback held the 4168.6 swing low beside EMA(20), and NY hours have capped at the 4196.5 session high, with RSI(14) near 59 after cooling from Friday morning's highs.
Support: 4,168.60, 4,153.60
Resistance: 4,196.50, 4,207.50
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4207.5 week high clears the 4200 psych rejection and extends the higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 4168.6 swing low and EMA(20) exposes the 38.2% fib at 4153.6, with the rising higher-lows trendline below
A stall under the 4196.5 session high into the close keeps price boxed between 4168.6 and 4207.5
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6% y/y) is the key catalyst; Fed speakers Hammack (Mon) and Waller (Tue) could shift the read first
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; lower highs capping under the 4,207 week high.
Gold has rebounded steadily off Wednesday's 4,066.52 two-month low as yields and the USD eased. Thursday's 4,105–4,146 range broke higher in Friday's Asia session, and price tagged a 4,207.48 week high before stalling at the $4,200 cap. Since then, lower highs at 4,201.89 and 4,196.46 have formed while price holds above EMA(20) near 4,173 and the rising-lows trendline, with RSI(14) cooling to the high-50s. Today's stagflationary UoM mix (sentiment 46.3 miss, 1y expectations 4.7%) produced a two-way NY swing between the 4,168.57 session low and 4,196, not a break.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,207.48 week high clears the lower-highs trendline and the $4,200 cap
Close below the 4,168.57 session low breaks the rising-lows trendline and puts EMA(20) behind price, with the 38.2% fib near 4,153 and Thursday's high at 4,145.97 next in view
US CPI Wed 14 Oct 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.6%) is the week's key catalyst; Fed speakers Hammack (Mon) and Waller (Tue) beforehand could shift this read
14:06 UTC
Rebound from Wednesday low, stalling under 4,200 · RSI 65 · price 4,188.65
Higher lows since 4,066.5; lower highs compressing under week high.
Gold built higher lows off Wednesday's 4,066.5 week low, then broke above Tuesday's 4,184 highs from a 4,143 breakout base in Friday's Asia session as US yields eased. It printed a week high at 4,207.5, just over the 4,200 psych cap. Since then highs have stepped lower (4,201.9, then 4,196.5), while the first hour of NY tagged EMA(20) near 4,172 and recovered off a 4,168.6 session low; RSI(14) has cooled from ~77 to ~65 without breaking 50.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,207.5 week high and the 4,200 psych level breaks the lower-highs compression
Close below EMA(20) and the 4,168.6 session low breaks the rally trendline, exposing 38.2% of the Wed-Fri leg near 4,154 and the 4,143 breakout base
Michigan sentiment plus 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read through yields
Failure to hold 4,143 returns price to the Wed-Thu range, with the 4,066.5 week low back in view
Higher lows since Wednesday; breakout over Thu high, rejected at 4207.
Gold's Monday–Wednesday slide bottomed at the 4066.52 week low in Wednesday's NY session. It has printed higher lows since, and softer US yields drove Friday's Asia-session breakout through the Thu high. The push stalled at 4207.48, just over the 4200 round number, and London has faded it back below the Tue high. The pullback low at 4168.57 is sitting on EMA(20) near 4169, while RSI(14) has cooled to the high 50s from overbought, so this is a retest within the rebound, not yet a structural break.
Support: 4,168.57, 4,145.97, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 4183.89 tue high reopens the 4200 round number and the 4207.48 week high
Failure to hold the 4168.57 pullback low and EMA(20) exposes the 38.2% fib near 4153.6 and the 4145.97 thu high
Break of the higher-low trendline (~4132) would undo the rebound structure off the week low
Higher lows since Wednesday; breakout above Tuesday high rejected at 4207.
Gold printed higher lows from Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low to Thursday's 4105.45 NY-session dip. It then broke through the thu high and Tuesday's 4183.89 peak during Friday's Asia session as US yields and the USD eased. The push stalled at a 4207.48 week high, with a 4201.89 lower high in early London and a pullback to a 4175.20 fri low, which holds above the 23.6% fib of the Wednesday-Friday swing and the rising ema20 near 4168, while RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-60s.
Support: 4,175.20, 4,168.40, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,201.89, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4207.48 week high extends the breakout through the $4,200 cap
Failure to hold the fri low and ema20 near 4168 exposes the thu high at 4145.97 and the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday-Friday swing near 4153.6
Break of the higher lows trendline (~4133) returns price to the 4100-4200 range
Higher lows since Wednesday; Friday breakout fading back to Tuesday high.
Gold has recovered from Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low, set during the London-NY transition on the hawkish Fed and bond-rout backdrop. Higher lows built into a Friday Asia-session breakout above the tue high at 4183.89 as US yields eased. The push stalled at the 4207.48 week high, just over the 4200 psych handle. A London-open retest at 4201.89 met rejection, and price has slipped back to the tue high while RSI(14) cools from overbought into the mid-60s. Price still sits above the ema20 near 4166 and the fib 23.6 of the week's rally at 4174, keeping the higher-lows structure intact.
Support: 4,174.20, 4,146.00
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4207.48 week high clears the 4200 psych area and resumes the breakout read
Failure to hold the fib 23.6 at 4174 and the ema20 near 4166 exposes the 38.2% at 4153.6 and the thu high at 4146
Sustained trade below the tue high at 4183.89 turns Friday's breakout into a false break
Break of the higher-lows trendline, near 4132 now, negates the recovery structure
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 4066; breakout above 4184 prior high, now retesting.
Gold has printed higher lows since Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low. In today's Asia session it broke through Thursday's 4146 range top and Tuesday's 4184 prior high as Treasury yields and the USD eased. The push stalled just above the 4200 round number at a 4207.48 week high. RSI(14) has cooled from overbought near 77 to 68, and price is now retesting the prior high with EMA20 rising near 4165; the 38.2% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday leg sits around 4154.
Support: 4,183.89, 4,165.40, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM Sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 4184 prior high turns the retest into a failed breakout and exposes EMA20 near 4165
Acceptance above the 4200 round number and the 4207 week high would extend the higher-lows sequence
Loss of the 4146 range top and the higher-lows trendline near 4130 negates the Wednesday–Friday recovery structure
09:07 UTC
Recovery from Wednesday low, momentum cooling under 4200 · RSI 67 · price 4,186.69
Higher lows since Wed; Asia breakout above Thu range stalled at week high.
Gold has reversed Wednesday's slide to the 4066.52 two-month low, a drop that came as USD and yields firmed into the FOMC Minutes. Thursday's higher lows gave way to a breakout above the 4145.97 thu high in today's Asia session as yields eased, but the extension met rejection at the 4207.48 week high, just through the 4200 round number. Price is holding above the 4183.89 tue high with RSI(14) easing to ~67 from the mid-70s, EMA(20) near 4163 sits above EMA(50) near 4147, and the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's low runs well beneath.
Support: 4,183.89, 4,163.30, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4207.48 week high would mark acceptance through the 4200 round number
Loss of the 4183.89 tue high opens a retest of ema20 near 4163 and the 38.2% fib at 4153.6
Failure to hold the 4145.97 thu high would undo the breakout and bring the 50% fib near 4137 into view
A break of the higher-low trendline from Wednesday's low would end the recovery structure
08:05 UTC
Rebound from midweek low, stalling under 4200 · RSI 70 · price 4,193.88
Higher lows since Wednesday, cleared Tuesday high.
Gold has carved higher lows since Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low, at 4105 on Thursday and 4131 into Friday's Asia session. The dominant leg came in Asia, a 32-dollar bar through the 4146 thurs high, then the 4183.89 tuesday high was cleared, as softer Treasury yields and USD profit-taking extended the rebound. The push to a 4207.48 week high was rejected back under the 4200 psych level into London open, with RSI(14) near 70 and price well clear of EMA(20) around 4161, which lines up with the 38.2% retracement of the rebound near 4154.
Support: 4,183.89, 4,161.00, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4207.48 week high clears the 4200 psych and trendline cap flagged this week
Failure to hold the tuesday high at 4184 returns price toward ema20 and the 38.2% rebound fib near 4154-4161
A break of the higher lows trendline from Wednesday's 4066 low would undo the rebound structure
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 GMT (~6h) could materially shift this read
Loss of the 4146 thurs high puts price back inside Thursday's range
Higher lows from 4066.52, breakout above Tuesday high.
Gold has recovered from Wednesday's NY-hours flush to 4066.52, set a higher low at 4105 on Thursday, then broke out in Friday's Asia session as yields and the USD eased, clearing Tuesday's 4183.89 prior high and tagging a 4207.48 week high. Price holds above EMA(20) near 4159 and EMA(50) near 4142, retracing almost all of the 4066–4207 move. The upper wick through the 4200 round number, the trendline area where rallies have been capped, and RSI(14) near 74 show the leg is stretched.
Support: 4,183.89, 4,158.70, 4,137.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4183.89 prior high would turn the breakout into a false break
Sustained H1 closes above the 4207.48 week high clear the 4200 round number cap
Pullbacks holding the ema20 (~4159) keep the higher-lows sequence intact; the fib 50% at 4137 is the deeper reference on the 4066–4207 move
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC (17:00 broker) could materially shift this read via yields
Higher lows since Wednesday; Asia breakout above Tuesday high.
Gold has carved higher lows off Wednesday's 4066.52 week low. The dominant move came in today's Asia session, a 32-dollar hourly impulse that cleared the 4145.97 thu high and the lower-highs line from Tuesday's peak, then pushed through the 4183.89 tuesday high to a 4207.48 week high as Treasury yields and the USD eased. The first test of the 4200 round number, where the digest places trendline resistance, drew a pullback into the 4190s. Price sits well clear of the ema20 near 4155, which lines up with the 38.2% fib of the 4066-4207 move, and RSI(14) around 74 is overbought after the run.
Support: 4,183.89, 4,154.60, 4,145.97
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,207.48
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4183.89 tuesday high would turn the Asia breakout into a false break
Sustained trade above the 4207.48 week high clears the 4200 round number cap
Pullbacks holding the ema20 / 38.2% fib zone near 4154, with the thu high at 4146 below, keep the higher-low sequence intact
A break of the higher-lows trendline from 4066.52 reopens the week low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read
05:06 UTC
Recovery leg, stretched into the week high · RSI 74 · price 4,184.77
Higher lows from Wednesday's low; Thursday's range and lower-highs line broken.
Gold has retraced most of Wednesday's NY-session slide to the 4066.52 week low. A $32 Asia-session impulse broke Thursday's 4105–4146 range and the lower-highs line from Tuesday as yields and the USD eased, putting price against Tuesday's 4183.89 rejection area at the 4185.78 week high. RSI(14) near 74 is overbought, EMA(20) at ~4149 sits just above the 4146 prior high, and the higher lows from Wednesday's trough remain intact.
Support: 4,145.97, 4,105.45, 4,066.52
Resistance: 4,185.78, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4186 week high clears Tuesday's rejection area and exposes the 4200 psych level, where the digest flags trendline resistance
Slip back below the 4146 prior high and EMA(20) would turn the Asia range break into a false break, with the 38.2% fib near 4140 next
Loss of the 4105 swing low breaks the higher lows line and puts the 4066 week low back in focus
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
04:04 UTC
Recovery from Wednesday low, pressing week high · RSI 68 · price 4,178.40
Higher lows since 4066; breakout from Thursday's 4100–4146 range.
Gold has recovered from Wednesday's two-month low at 4066, printing higher lows at 4100 and 4105. It broke out of Thursday's 4100–4146 range in a single Asia-session leg early Friday as US yields and the USD eased. Price now sits in the 4180–4184 week high zone that capped Tuesday's bounce. RSI(14) is near 68 and price is well above EMA(20) around 4145, with the 38.2% of the recovery fib near 4137 below the range top.
Support: 4,146.00, 4,105.00
Resistance: 4,184.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4184 week high clears Tuesday's cap and opens the path to the 4200 round number
Rejection at 4180–4184 would leave a potential double top against Tuesday's high
A return below the 4146 range top would turn Friday's move into a false break
A break of the higher lows trendline and the 4105 thu low would re-expose the 4066 week low
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold has retraced Wednesday's NY-hours slide to the 4066 two-month low, printing higher lows on Thursday before breaking out of Thursday's 4105–4146 range in today's Asia session as yields and the USD eased after Trump's Iran comments. Price now sits just under the 4184 week high that capped Tuesday's rally, roughly $36 above EMA(20) near 4141. RSI(14) at about 75 is overbought; the 38.2% retracement of the recovery fib sits near 4137, just below the EMA(20).
Support: 4,146.00, 4,141.00, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4184 week high opens the 4200 trendline cap flagged in the macro read
A new high on weaker RSI would mark bearish divergence against Tuesday's top
Failure to hold the 4146 thu high returns price to Thursday's range and puts EMA(20) near 4141 in play
Loss of the 4105 higher low breaks the recovery structure back toward 4066
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's low; Asia-session break above Thursday's range.
Gold has built higher lows at 4100 and 4105 since Wednesday's 4066.52 two-month low, which printed into NY hours. In today's Asia session a single hour cleared Thursday's 4146 prior high and ran to 4175 as yields and the USD eased, taking price back above EMA(20) near 4138 and EMA(50). The move has now retraced beyond the 78.6% fib of the Tuesday-Wednesday decline with RSI(14) near 71, overbought, and Tuesday's 4184 week high and the 4200 round number sit overhead.
Support: 4,145.97, 4,138.00, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,183.89, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4146 prior high would mark the Asia breakout as a false break
H1 close above the 4184 week high completes a full fib retrace and exposes the 4200 round number
Loss of EMA(20) and then the higher-low trendline near 4105 would undo the recovery structure
Fri 14:00 UTC UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
01:06 UTC
Recovery off Wednesday's week low, lower high vs Tuesday · RSI 61 · price 4,146.06
Higher lows since 4066.52, pressing the top of Thursday's 4105–4146 range.
Wednesday's NY-hours flush to the 4066.52 two-month low has been followed by a run of higher lows (4100, 4103, 4105). Gold recovered as Treasury yields and the USD eased. Thursday held a 4105–4146 range, and the Asia session has nudged to a 4150.46 asia high, putting price back at the week open (4141) and just above the 61.8% retracement of the Tuesday high–Wednesday low drop (~4139). Price sits above a rising ema20 near 4132 with RSI(14) around 61; momentum is recovering but still below the 4183.89 week high that capped Tuesday.
Support: 4,141.32, 4,132.00, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,150.46, 4,170.34, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4150.46 asia high opens the 4170 monday high, with the 4183.89 week high above
Loss of the week open at 4141 and the ema20 near 4132 returns price to the middle of Thursday's range
A break of the higher lows trendline (near 4118 now) and the 4105.45 thu low re-exposes the 4066.52 week low
Michigan sentiment and UoM 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
00:05 UTC
Recovering off week low, testing week open · RSI 62 · price 4,148.02
Higher lows from 4066; lower-highs line from 4184 under test.
The NY-session failure at Tuesday's 4184 week high fed Wednesday's slide into the NY open to a two-month low at 4066.52 as yields and the USD pushed higher. Softer yields since then have built higher lows along a rising trendline, with Thursday's 4105 thursday low holding and price reclaiming EMA20 and EMA50, both near 4130. Price is back above the 4141 week open and the 61.8% retracement of the week drop, has pushed through the lower-highs line from the week high and is now pressing the 4150 cap with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 4,141.30, 4,130.00, 4,105.45
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,170.34, 4,183.89
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4141 week open turns the push over Thursday's 4146 high into a false break
Acceptance above the 4150 cap opens the 4170 monday high, then the 4184 week high
Loss of the ema20 near 4130 puts the higher-lows trendline and the 4105 thursday low back in play, with the 4066 week low beyond
UoM sentiment and 1y/5y inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields