Double top at 4147–4149, 4027.5 neckline under test.
The rally from the 3870.26 swing low was capped twice at 4146.92 and 4148.52. That double top formed as the hot US CPI beat and a firmer dollar pushed gold below both the ema20 (4074.93) and ema50 (4055.43), down to a 4013.74 cpi low that briefly pierced the 4027.5 neckline. EMA(20) is still above EMA(50) but has turned lower from 4089.5, RSI sits at 44 and ATR(14) near $37.6 has eased slightly off its recent peak. Price is holding between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the rally fib, and the rising support line from the swing low has already given way.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,055.43, 4,074.93, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4013.74 cpi low and the 4000 psych handle would confirm the double top breakdown, opening the 61.8% rally fib near 3976 and then the 3870.26 swing low
Recovery back above the ema50 at 4055.43 and the ema20 at 4074.93 would weaken the double top read
EMA(20) crossing below EMA(50) would mark a swing-level ema cross; the gap is now about $19.5
Fed's Bowman and Paulson speak in about 90 minutes; talk of a larger hike could extend the CPI-driven break
US Initial Jobless Claims Thursday (f/c 195K) and the Fed speaker slate could shift the read around the 4000 area
18:03 UTC
Rally rolling over, below both EMAs · RSI 42 · price 4,017.02
Double top at 4147-4148, neckline at 4027.5 giving way.
The rally from the 3870 swing low stalled twice at 4147-4148, leaving a double top. The hot US CPI print extended the slide through the 4027.5 neckline, and price now sits below both EMAs with RSI at 41.5. EMA20 is still above the 4056 ema50 but has rolled over, and ATR(14) has re-expanded to about 3,888 pips from 3,679, so the move is widening rather than compressing; price is between the 38.2% and fib 50% levels of the 3870–4148 rally.
Support: 4,009.40, 3,976.00, 3,870.26
Resistance: 4,027.52, 4,056.35
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 4027.5 neckline would mark the break as a false break
Failure to hold the fib 50% at 4009 exposes the 3976 prior low, which lines up with the 61.8% retracement
EMA20 crossing below the 4056 ema50 would confirm the swing rollover
Only a reclaim of the 4148 double top highs negates the pattern; the 3870 swing low anchors the rally
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could shift this read; Thu jobless claims (f/c 195K) follow
14:04 UTC
Recovery stalling, rolling over below EMAs · RSI 46 · price 4,057.54
Double top near 4147, higher lows held above 4027.52.
The recovery from the 3870.26 low stalled at a double top near 4147 (4146.92 / 4148.52). The hot October CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) then drove gold to a cpi low at 4040.11, near the 38.2% fib of the 3870-4148 advance, leaving price below both the ema50 at 4057.90 and the ema20 at 4085.77. The 4027.52 swing low still anchors the higher-low sequence as the pattern neckline, while ATR(14) at 3820.8 pips is re-expanding off 3678.7 and RSI has slid from 69 to 46.1 without reaching oversold.
Support: 4,040.11, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,057.90, 4,085.77, 4,147.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4027.52 neckline would complete the double top and print a lower low, exposing the 3976 pivot zone at the 61.8% fib
Failure to hold the cpi low at 4040.11 puts the neckline test in play
Recovery back above the ema20 at 4085.77 would weaken the double-top read, with 4147 still the multi-day cap
EMA20 is rolling over toward the ema50; an ema cross lower would mark a swing momentum shift
Fed's Bowman and Paulson tonight, plus the CPI YoY detail still awaited, could extend or reverse the post-CPI move
Higher low at 4029.93, capped twice at 4146; 4030-4146 range.
The rally from the 3869.95 window low printed a higher low at the 4029.93 swing low after Friday's NFP beat. That held near the 38.2% of the rally fib. Monday's rebound stalled at 4146.12, creating a double high with the 4146.63 peak, and gold has slipped back just under the ema20 at 4089.04 while still holding above the rising ema50 at 4057.92. RSI sits mid-range at 51.8 and ATR(14) has compressed from about 4046 to 3652 pips, so the 4030-4146 range is tightening ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,057.92, 4,029.93, 3,869.95
Resistance: 4,089.04, 4,146.63, 4,198.27
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h) could materially shift this read; a hot core print aligns with a test of the ema50 and swing low
An H4 close below the 4029.93 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and turns the double high into a confirmed double top
An H4 close above the 4146.63 double high breaks the range cap and brings the 4198.27 window high into view
Holding the ema50 near 4058 and the higher-low trendline keeps the recovery structure from the window low intact
Bowman and Paulson remarks late today follow the CPI release
Higher low at 4,030 after the 3,870 trough; capped twice at 4,146-4,147.
Gold has made higher lows since the late-October 3,870 trough. Last week's post-NFP pullback held the 4,030 higher low, close to the 38.2% fib of the 3,870–4,147 advance, and was fully retraced on Monday as softer USD and falling oil fed demand. Price is now pressing a 4,146–4,147 double cap tested twice and sits above both the ema20 (4,089) and the ema50 (4,057), with the ema20 crossed above the ema50 during the rally. ATR(14) has compressed to 3,581 pips from above 4,000 while RSI cools to 58.5, so price is coiling beneath resistance into US CPI.
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4,147 double cap opens the path to the 4,198 prior high
Loss of the ema20 at 4,089, then the ema50 at 4,057, shifts focus back to the 4,030 higher low
Failure to hold the 4,030 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the swing structure
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.5h), with Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
02:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the 2-week high · RSI 61 · price 4,141.17
Higher lows from 3870 low; capped at 4147-4149.
Higher-low structure has held since the 3870 low, stepping up through the 4027.52 higher low after Friday's strong NFP and the 4084.68 swing low on Monday's reversal. The 4147-4149 zone has now capped two pushes and marks the 2-week high, with the 23.6% retracement sitting near the 4084.68 swing low. ATR(14) near 36 is well below the late-October selloff expansion, so price is coiling under the cap ahead of US CPI rather than trending.
Support: 4,100.00, 4,084.68, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,148.52, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4148.52 2-week high extends the higher-low sequence and opens the path to the 4200 round number
A third rejection at 4147-4149 followed by a break of the 4084.68 swing low turns the cap into a double top
Loss of the 4027.52 higher low and the 38.2% retracement ends the higher-low structure
Losing the 4100 psych level would put the swing low back in play
US CPI today at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC