Lower highs from 4148 triple top, neckline broken.
Gold has unwound Monday's rally from the 4146–4150 triple top. Tuesday's sell-off began in the London session on Waller's 50bp talk and extended through the NY session after the hot CPI beat, reaching a 4013.74 week low below Friday's 4027.52 NFP low. Price sits at 4032.8, below EMA(20) at 4061.04, which overlaps the weekly open, and below EMA(50) at 4078.83 after a bearish EMA cross. RSI(14) has lifted to 32.5 from a 24.4 trough, and ATR is easing off its post-CPI peak.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,061.04, 4,071.51, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 GMT could materially shift this read; talk of a larger hike would bring the 4000 psych handle into play
An H1 close back above the ema20 and weekly open near 4061 would break the lower-highs sequence, with the 4071.51 prior close and the 38.2% fib next
Failure to hold the 4027.52 nfp low and the 4013.74 week low extends the downtrend toward 4000 psych
Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims (f/c 195K) is the next data risk; a rally back to the 4148.52 triple top would negate the breakdown read
Lower highs from Monday's week high; prior range broken lower post-CPI.
Gold has printed lower highs since Monday's NY-session week high at 4148.52, then broke down on Waller's London-open remarks and the hot US CPI print, cutting through last week's prior wk low at 4027.52 to a week low of 4013.74 during NY hours. Price has rebuilt to 4032.8, back above the prior wk low but below the weekly open and both the ema20 (4061.04) and ema50 (4078.83), with RSI(14) recovering to 32.5 from 24.4 and ATR easing off its post-CPI peak. The 38.2–50% retracement of the post-CPI drop overlaps the ema20–ema50 band overhead, while the 4000 round number sits below.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,061.04, 4,078.83, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the ema20 / weekly open near 4061 challenges the lower highs sequence
Failure to hold the prior wk low at 4027.52 and a break of the 4013.74 week low exposes the 4000 round number
Rejection beneath the ema50 at 4078.83, inside the post-CPI drop fib zone, keeps the downtrend structure intact
Thursday's US Initial Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC is the next data risk
Double top at 4146-4148 broken; lower highs since Monday's NY close.
Monday's rally stalled at 4148.52, matching last week's 4146.92 high to form a double top. Tuesday's selloff began in the London session after Waller's remarks and accelerated into the NY open on the hot US CPI print (0.4% vs 0.3% f/c), carrying gold to a NY session low of 4013.74 as EMA(20) crossed below EMA(50). Price now holds a narrow 4015-4036 band just above the prior-week low at 4027.52, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) recovering to 31.5 from 24.4 and ATR easing off its CPI expansion.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,061.33, 4,064.01, 4,080.70
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4013.74 session low exposes the 4000 psych level, the line the digest flags for spec-long liquidation
Repeated closes below the prior-week low at 4027.52 would extend the lower-low sequence
A reclaim of the weekly open at 4061.33 and ema20 at 4064.01 (near the 38.2% of the selloff fib) would challenge the downtrend read
ema50 at 4080.7 caps the lower-highs trendline zone; acceptance above it would neutralise the double top
Fed's Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Thursday's Jobless Claims at 13:30 UTC is the next data risk
Lower highs from 4,148.52 week high, post-CPI low at 4,013.74.
Gold has erased Monday's NY-session run to the 4,148.52 week high. It slid through London on Waller's hawkish remarks, then accelerated in NY after the hot US CPI beat, printing a 4,013.74 week low beneath Friday's nfp low at 4,027.52. Price sits below the ema20 (4,067.48) and ema50 (4,082.73) after a fresh bearish crossover, with ATR expanded to 1,729 pips, while RSI(14) has lifted from 24.4 to 30.5 as late-NY bars compress around the nfp low. The week range fib puts the 38.2% near 4,065, beside the ema20, and the 50% near 4,081, beside the ema50, and the second rejection at 4,146–4,148 has left a double top over that low.
Support: 4,027.52, 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,067.48, 4,082.73, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read via the 10y yield
H1 close below the 4,013.74 week low exposes the 4,000 psych level
Acceptance back below the 4,027.52 nfp low turns the current retest into a rejection of the double top neckline
Recovery above the ema20 near 4,067 (38.2% of the week range fib) would break the post-CPI lower-high sequence; the ema50 at 4,082.73 sits above
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC, f/c 195K) is the next data risk
Lower highs since Monday's 4148 peak; break below Friday low.
Gold has fully unwound Monday's rally to 4148.52. Tuesday's slide began in London on Waller's hawkish remarks and accelerated in NY hours after the hot US CPI beat (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%), breaking the friday low at 4027.52 and printing a 4013.74 week low. Price sits below the ema20 at 4071.48 and the ema50 at 4084.90, with RSI(14) at 29.3 in oversold territory and ATR expanding to 1800.7 pips, while the weekly open at 4061.33 aligns with the 38.2% fib of the decline along the lower highs line.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,027.52, 4,061.33, 4,071.48
What it said to watch
Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read if they lean toward larger hikes
H1 close back above the friday low at 4027.52 would signal the break is failing
Loss of the 4013.74 week low exposes the 4000 round number
Reclaim of the weekly open at 4061.33 and the ema20 near 4071 would break the lower highs sequence
18:03 UTC
Downtrend, impulsive and oversold · RSI 24 · price 4,016.43
Lower highs since Monday's 4148.52 peak; week's low broken.
Monday's rally to 4148.52 has been fully unwound. Tuesday's selling began in London around Waller's remarks and extended through the NY session after the hot October CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%). The drop cut through the monday low at 4054.37 and last Friday's nfp low at 4027.52 to print a session low of 4013.74. Price sits below both EMAs with EMA(20) at 4076.14 just crossing under EMA(50), RSI(14) at 24.4 is oversold, and ATR has expanded to ~1,800 pips, while the lower highs since Monday's peak frame the drop.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,027.52, 4,054.37, 4,076.14
What it said to watch
An hourly close back above the nfp low at 4027.52 would turn the break below it into a false break
Failure to hold the session low at 4013.74 exposes the 4000 round number
A rebound into the monday low at 4054.37 and the ema20 near 4076, close to the fib 38.2% (~4065), is the area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
17:02 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after CPI-driven leg · RSI 25 · price 4,022.45
Range break below Friday's low; lower highs since 4148 week high.
Monday's rally to the 4148.52 week high has fully reversed in Tuesday's sell-off. Waller's 50bp comments drove a London leg to 4072, then the hot US CPI (core 0.3% vs 0.2%) pushed the NY session through the week open at 4061 and Friday's NFP low at 4027.5, down to a 4013.74 session low. Price sits below EMA(20) at 4082 and EMA(50) at 4090 after a bearish EMA cross, with RSI(14) oversold at 25 and ATR expanding to 1860 pips; the 38.2% retracement of the sell-off near 4065 lines up with the week open, and the 50% near 4081 with the ema20.
Support: 4,013.74, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,027.52, 4,061.33, 4,082.20
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4027.5 friday low would turn the range break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4013.74 session low exposes the 4000 round number
A rebound that stalls at the week open or ema20 near 4061–4082 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC), then Paulson and Bowman (23:30 UTC), could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4148 double top; Monday's rally fully erased.
Gold has erased Monday's rally from the Asia session and NY afternoon into the 4148 double top. Tuesday's drop came in two legs: Waller's remarks during London hours, then the hot US CPI print at the NY open, which took price back below the week open at 4061 on a series of lower highs. Price trades under EMA(20) and EMA(50), both now sloping lower. RSI(14) is oversold at 29.2 and ATR(14) has expanded to 1755.8 pips, with the cpi low at 4032.88 sitting just above last week's nfp low at 4027.52.
Support: 4,032.88, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,061.33
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4027.52 nfp low sets a lower low for the window and exposes the 4000 psych level
Recovery back above the 4061.33 week open neutralises the post-CPI breakdown
A break of the lower highs trendline and a reclaim of the ema20 near 4088 would negate the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Bowman and Paulson at 23:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
15:42 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after CPI · RSI 27 · price 4,048.68
Lower highs from week high; prior range floor under test.
Gold has fully unwound Monday's rally to the 4148.52 week high, printing lower highs into Tuesday's London session before the hot US CPI beat knocked it from 4079 to a 4032.88 CPI low in the first hour of NY. Price sits below both EMAs. EMA(20) has rolled over and slipped under EMA(50), while RSI(14) at 27.4 is oversold and ATR has expanded to 1739 pips. The 4027–4033 band, made up of Friday's NFP low and today's CPI low, is under test, with the weekly open at 4061.33 now overhead.
Support: 4,032.88, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,061.33, 4,093.37, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4027.52 nfp low confirms a lower low beneath Friday's post-NFP floor
Reclaim of the 4061.33 weekly open would ease the post-CPI breakdown read; ema20 at 4093.37 is the next cap
Bowman at 20:30 UTC, then Paulson and Bowman at 23:30 UTC: any signal of hikes beyond December could materially shift this read
Lower-highs trendline from the week high stays intact while price holds below 4128
Double top at 4147-4149, neckline 4084.68 broken, lower highs.
Monday's Asia and late-NY rallies stalled at 4148.52, a marginal overshoot of last Wednesday's 4146.92 high. Tuesday then unwound the move. Waller's 50bp remarks drove a London-morning break of the 4084.68 neckline, and the hot CPI print (core 0.3% vs 0.2%, headline 0.4% vs 0.3%) took price to a 4040.11 cpi low, below the 4061 weekly open. Price sits under both EMAs, with EMA(20) at 4099 rolling over into EMA(50), and RSI(14) has slid from 64 on Monday to 30.3, just above oversold, while Tuesday's lower highs from 4146.65 cap the structure.
Support: 4,040.11, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,061.33, 4,084.68, 4,099.08
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4061 weekly open would turn the CPI spike into a rejection of the lows
Break of the 4027.52 nfp low takes out Friday's post-payrolls low and confirms a lower low for the window
Recovery through the 4084.68 neckline and the ema20 near 4099 would neutralise the double top read
Fed's Bowman (20:30 UTC) and Paulson/Bowman (23:30 UTC) reaction to the hot CPI could materially shift this read
Pending CPI YoY actuals could add to or temper the post-release move
Lower highs since Monday's high inside the 4027–4148 range.
Gold has given back most of Monday's rally off the 4061 weekly open. Tuesday printed lower highs under the 4148 week high, which also capped last week, before Waller's 50bp talk drove a London-open drop through 4100. Price now sits below EMA(50) 4099 and EMA(20) 4104, with RSI(14) at 38 after sliding from the low 60s, holding near the 78.6% fib of Monday's rally just above the 4068.77 session low, while ATR(14) has compressed into CPI and the 4027 nfp low still marks the range floor.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,061.33
Resistance: 4,099.01, 4,104.03
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%, headline 0.3%) is due within the hour and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4068.77 session low and the 4061 weekly open would expose the 4027 nfp low
Reclaiming ema50 4099 and ema20 4104 would neutralise Tuesday's lower-highs sequence
A close above the 4148 week high would break the range top that has rejected two tests
Lower highs since Monday's 4148 top, Monday swing low broken.
Monday's NY-session push to 4148.52 stalled at the range top, just above Thursday's 4146.92 high. Tuesday's London session has unwound the move: the slide around Waller's remarks broke Monday's 4084.68 swing low (now a broken low overhead) and took price below EMA(20) at 4106.67 and the ema50 at 4099.83, with RSI(14) rolling from 64 to 35. Price now sits on the 61.8% fib of the post-NFP leg near 4074, just above the session low at 4068.77 and the weekly open at 4061.33, with the NFP low at 4027.52 still the floor of the 4027–4148 range.
Support: 4,068.77, 4,061.33, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,084.68, 4,099.83, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 GMT (core m/m f/c 0.2%) lands in ~90 minutes and could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4061.33 weekly open exposes the 4027.52 nfp low
Reclaim of the 4084.68 broken low and the ema50 at 4099.83 would neutralise the lower-highs sequence
A third test of the 4148.52 range top would put the double-high structure back in play
Twin rejection at 4,146-4,148 week high; Tuesday lower highs broke below Monday's London low; price testing the weekly open.
Gold has given back Monday's late-NY push to the 4,148.22 week high, a second failure alongside Thursday's 4,146.63, and Tuesday's lower highs gave way in the London morning as firming Fed hike pricing weighed ahead of CPI. The slide broke Monday's 4,084.61 London low and the 61.8% retrace of the Monday rally fib, leaving price below EMA(20) at 4,109.87 and the flat EMA(50) at 4,100.63. RSI(14) has slipped from the low 60s to 35.4 as price tests the weekly open at 4,067.81.
Support: 4,067.81, 4,054.04, 4,029.93
Resistance: 4,084.61, 4,100.63, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC, about 2.5h out, could materially shift this read in either direction
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4,067.81 exposes the 4,054.04 monday low and then the 4,029.93 nfp low at the range floor
H1 close back above the 4,084.61 london low and the 4,100.63 ema50 would negate the breakdown
A break of the tuesday lower highs line toward 4,127 would reopen the week high at 4,148.22
4030–4148 range; higher-low sequence since Friday broken.
Tuesday's London session has unwound most of Monday's Asia-led rally off the 4054 weekly low. The 4148 week high was rejected late Monday, the second cap near 4146 after Thursday's Asia peak. The drop broke the rising trendline from Friday's post-NFP low, took out Monday's 4084.61 swing low and slipped past the 61.8% retracement of Monday's rally, leaving price below both EMA(20) at 4113.55 and EMA(50) at 4101.68 as firmer Fed hike pricing and pre-CPI squaring weigh. RSI(14) at 39.5 has dropped out of its 50–64 band, and the 4080.93 session low is the first test.
Support: 4,080.93, 4,067.81, 4,054.04
Resistance: 4,101.68, 4,113.55, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~3.5h, core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4080.93 session low exposes the 4067.81 weekly open and the 4054 weekly low
An H1 close back above the ema50 at 4101.68 and the ema20 at 4113.55 would neutralise the rising trendline break
A recovery to the 4148 week high would retest the twice-capped range top
09:02 UTC
Range-bound, momentum fading off the top · RSI 50 · price 4,096.44
4030–4148 range; second rejection at week high, lower high Tuesday.
The post-NFP dip to the 4030 nfp low was fully bought from Monday's 4068 weekly open as falling oil and a softer USD lifted gold, but the run stalled at a 4148 week high, matching Thursday's 4147 peak, and Tuesday's Asia session has printed a lower high at 4127. The last closed bar sat below EMA(20) at 4116 and above EMA(50) at 4102, with RSI(14) fading from 64 to 50 and ATR compressing from ~1,700 to ~1,430 pips. Into the London open, price is pressing Monday's dip low at 4085, near the 61.8% retracement of Monday's leg.
Support: 4,084.61, 4,067.81, 4,029.93
Resistance: 4,116.27, 4,127.45, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4085 mon dip low and the 61.8% fib (~4090) exposes the 4068 weekly open
Hourly close below the 4102 EMA(50) would extend the fade from the week high
Recovery above the 4116 ema20 and the 4127 lower high neutralises Tuesday's fade
Close above the 4148 week high breaks the range top after two rejections
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~4.5h) and Waller at 09:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold bought Friday's post-NFP dip out of the 4054 weekly open area on falling oil and a softer USD. The rally ran into NY hours to 4148.22, but stalled against Thursday's 4146.63 cap, leaving twin highs, and Asia has since printed a lower high at 4141. Price is back near 4115, just under a flat ema20 at 4116.62 and at the 38.2% retracement of Monday's leg, with RSI(14) at 49.6. The rising ema50 at 4101.81 and the Asia low at 4107.92 sit underneath, while ATR has eased from about 1,700 to 1,470.7 pips into CPI.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,101.81, 4,084.61
Resistance: 4,116.62, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC is the main event risk and could break the 4085–4148 range either way
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC may set the pre-CPI tone for the London session
An H1 close above the 4148.22 twin highs breaks the range top
Failure to hold the ema50 and the Asia low at 4107.92 puts the higher-lows line from Friday's low in focus
A close below the 4084.61 swing low turns the twin highs into a confirmed lower-high structure
Reclaiming the ema20 at 4116.62 would put the 4140.99 lower high back in play
07:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend, capped below range top · RSI 54 · price 4,122.71
Higher lows since Monday under twin 4146-4148 highs.
Gold opened the week at 4067.81, and Monday's rally stalled at a 4148.22 week high. The rally was built in the Asia session and extended late in NY as oil slid and the USD pared its post-NFP gains. That was a second rejection alongside Thursday's 4146.63, at the top of the range that has held since Friday's 4029.93 NFP low. Today's Asia pullback found an asian low at 4107.92, above the 38.2% fib near 4103 and the rising ema50 at 4101.37, extending a run of higher lows from Monday's 4084.61. Price is back above the ema20 at 4117.04, RSI(14) has cooled to 53.6 from 64, ATR is compressing into US CPI, and a lower high at 4127.54 is capping the bounce so far.
Support: 4,117.04, 4,107.92, 4,101.37
Resistance: 4,127.54, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~6.5h), preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4148.22 week high breaks the range top after two rejections
An H1 close above the 4127.54 lower high reopens the 4140s
A break of the 4107.92 asian low and the ema50 at 4101.37 snaps the higher lows trendline and exposes the 61.8% fib near 4075
06:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under 4148 · RSI 55 · price 4,122.64
Higher lows beneath a flat 4146-4148 cap.
Monday's rally from 4054 retraced all of Friday's post-NFP drop on a softer USD and the oil slide. It topped at the 4148.22 week high in NY hours, where it met rejection against Thursday's 4146.6 high. Tuesday's Asia session pullback held at 4107.9 (asia low), near the 38.2% fib of Monday's impulse, and kept the higher-lows sequence intact since Monday's London open. Price is back above a flattening EMA(20) at 4116.6, RSI(14) has recovered to 54.8 from 49.5, and the 4141 lower high now caps the bounce.
Support: 4,116.62, 4,107.92, 4,100.57
Resistance: 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148.22 week high breaks the two-touch cap from Thursday and Monday
Close above the 4140.99 lower high is needed to keep the cap test in play
Failure to hold the 4107.92 asia low and the higher-lows trendline exposes ema50 at 4100.57
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~7.5h), with Waller at 09:00 UTC first, could materially shift this read
Gold fully retraced Friday's post-NFP drop on Monday as the USD gave back gains. It climbed from just above the 4067.81 weekly open in the Asia session, and a late NY spike tagged a 4148.22 week high, barely above last week's 4146.63, before rejection. Tuesday's Asia session has faded through a 4140.99 lower high to the 38.2% retracement of Monday's 4054–4148 leg, with price pinned at ema20 near 4115, RSI(14) back at 51 and the higher-lows line holding at the 4107.92 asia low.
Support: 4,107.92, 4,101.70, 4,067.81
Resistance: 4,115.40, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4107.92 asia low breaks the higher-lows line and exposes ema50 near 4101.7, in line with the 50% fib
Failure to hold ema50 / 4100 re-opens the 4067.81 weekly open
H1 close above the 4140.99 lower high and the 4148.22 week high would void the rejection read
Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC (~4h) and US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~8.5h) could materially shift this read
04:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 45 · price 4,111.12
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low; 4146–4148 capped twice.
Friday's hot NFP knocked gold to 4030 during NY hours. Monday's recovery off the 4067.8 weekly open, helped by a weaker USD and the near-6% oil drop, built a higher-low sequence and pushed to a week high of 4148.2 late in the NY session. Thursday's 4146.6 top was only marginally exceeded before rejection. The Asia session has since pulled back to 4111, below the EMA(20) near 4119, with RSI(14) around 45. Price is now testing the 4100 swing low, the 38.2% fib of the NFP low-to-week high leg and the higher-low trendline.
Support: 4,100.40, 4,084.60, 4,067.80
Resistance: 4,119.00, 4,141.00, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (~9.5h), with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4100 swing low and the higher-low trendline exposes the 4085 pullback low and the 61.8% fib near 4075
Holding above the 4067.8 weekly open keeps the higher-low structure from Friday's NFP low intact
H1 close back above the ema20 and the 4141 asian high puts the 4146–4148 week high back in play; acceptance above it breaks the double cap
03:05 UTC
Recovery uptrend from Friday's low, stalling at range top · RSI 52 · price 4,111.52
Higher lows since Friday; lower high in Asia after a double rejection at 4146-4148.
Gold has printed higher lows since Friday's post-NFP flush to 4029.93. Monday's softer USD, sliding oil and lower yields drove an Asia-session surge, and a second leg in late NY hours reached a week high at 4148.22. That print cleared Thursday's 4146.63 top by under $2 before rejection, and Asia has since capped at a lower asia high of 4141, slipped below Monday's trendline and lost the ema20 near 4118, with RSI(14) easing to around 52. The monday low at 4100 sits on the 38.2% retracement of the Friday-Monday leg and is the first shelf under price.
Support: 4,100.41, 4,084.61, 4,067.81
Resistance: 4,118.00, 4,140.99, 4,148.22
What it said to watch
US CPI at 13:30 UTC today (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC before it
An H1 close below the 4100 monday low exposes the london low at 4084.61 and the 61.8% fib of the Friday-Monday leg near 4075
Failure to reclaim the ema20 around 4118 keeps the lower high at the 4141 asia high in focus
An H1 close above the 4148 week high would break the double rejection at the range top
A retrace to the weekly open at 4067.81 would erase Monday's recovery
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low, capped by a triple-tested 4146–4150 ceiling.
Gold has recovered from Friday's NFP low at 4027.52. Monday's Asia jump and late-NY surge, on the oil slide and a softer USD, lifted it to a week high of 4148.52, its third test of the 4146–4150 cap since Thursday, while RSI(14) peaked below Thursday's reading. Higher lows at the 4084.68 swing low (London open) and 4100.52 define the rising trendline. Price holds above EMA(20) near 4118 with RSI(14) at 55, but Asia produced a rejection from 4146.65 and a lower Asia high at 4141.44 into today's US CPI.
Support: 4,118.40, 4,100.52, 4,084.68
Resistance: 4,141.44, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148.52 week high clears the 4146–4150 cap and invalidates the rejection read
Failure to hold EMA(20) near 4118 exposes the 4100.52 higher low, which coincides with the 38.2% fib of the NFP low–week high move
A break of the higher-lows trendline and 4084.68 swing low confirms a lower-low sequence toward the 61.8% fib near 4074
US CPI at 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% MoM), with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read
01:04 UTC
Recovery uptrend, stalling at week high · RSI 59 · price 4,128.71
Higher lows since Monday open; second test of 4146–4148 rejected.
Monday erased Friday's NFP-driven drop to 4027.52, as the oil rout and a softer USD lifted gold. The rally ran from the 4054 week open through the Asia session, faded to a 4084.68 London low, and resumed into late NY hours, printing a 4148.52 week high just above Thursday's 4146.92 peak. That retest met rejection in Tuesday's Asia session, with price slipping below the 4141.06 NY close to an Asia low at 4121.69. The higher-low sequence (London low, then 4100.52 NY low) is still intact, price holds above the EMA(20) near 4117, and RSI(14) has eased to ~59.
Support: 4,121.69, 4,117.00, 4,100.52
Resistance: 4,141.06, 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148.52 week high breaks the 4146–4148 double cap and the week's range top
Failure to hold the 4100.52 NY low, which sits beside the ~4102 38.2% retracement of the NFP low–week high move, breaks Monday's higher lows
Loss of the Asia low at 4121.69 and the EMA(20) shifts focus back to the 4100 area
Waller at 09:00 UTC and US CPI at 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read; a hot core print would pressure Monday's gains
Reclaim of the 4141.06 NY close would neutralise the Asia-session rejection
00:04 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 64 · price 4,136.96
Higher lows since Monday; retest of the 4147–4148 range top.
Monday's Asia session erased most of Friday's NFP-driven drop to 4027.52, lifting gold off the 4061.50 weekly open as the oil slide pulled the USD and yields lower. Pullbacks then held higher lows at 4084.68 in early European hours and at the 4100.52 NY low. A late-NY push to the 4148.52 week high retested Thursday's 4146.92 peak, and price holds above EMA(20) near 4117 with RSI(14) around 64. Friday's low sits near the 50% retracement of the Wed–Thu impulse from 3917.56, so the broader advance has kept its higher-low sequence.
Support: 4,117.00, 4,100.52, 4,084.68
Resistance: 4,148.52
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148.52 week high clears the double test of Thursday's 4146.92 high and breaks the 4027–4148 range top
Break of the Monday higher-lows trendline and the 4100.52 ny low returns the read to range
Loss of the 4084.68 london low exposes the 4061.50 weekly open
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, with Waller at 09:00 UTC beforehand, could materially shift this read