Monday higher lows; marginal new week high retesting Thursday's 4146.9 cap.
Gold has fully reversed Friday's NFP-driven drop. It rallied off the 4061.5 weekly open in Monday's Asia session, then pushed to a marginal new week high at 4148.5 late in the NY session as the USD and oil slid on Iran ceasefire hopes. Monday has printed higher lows at the 4084.7 asia low and the 4100.5 ny low, the latter holding just under the ema20 and at the 38.2% retracement of the NFP low fib leg. RSI(14) near 63 sits well below its Thursday peak despite the higher price, a bearish divergence at the week high.
Support: 4,100.50, 4,084.70
Resistance: 4,148.50, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148.5 week high clears Thursday's 4146.9 cap and opens the path toward the 4190–4200 psych area
Rejection at the week high with a break of the Monday higher lows trendline shifts focus back to the ema20 and the 4100.5 ny low
Close below the 4084.7 asia low ends the Monday higher-low sequence and exposes the 61.8% NFP low fib near 4074
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (~16h), preceded by Fed's Waller at 09:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Uptrend, retesting week high · RSI 66 · price 4,141.06
Higher lows on Monday, pressing Thursday's 4146.9 high.
Gold recovered all of Friday's NFP drop on Monday. It lifted from the 4054 area near the weekly open during the Asia session as the USD and oil slid, then printed 4148.5 late in the NY session, a marginal new week high above Thursday's 4146.9. Pullbacks held higher lows at the London low (4084.7) and the NY low (4100.5), the latter near the 50% retracement of the Monday rally. Price sits above EMA(20) around 4117 with RSI(14) in the mid-60s.
Support: 4,117.00, 4,100.50, 4,084.70
Resistance: 4,148.50, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148.5 week high and 4150 round number confirms a break of Thursday's high
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core MoM f/c 0.2%) could materially shift this read; Waller speaks at 09:00 UTC
Loss of EMA(20) near 4117 would mark the first failed hold since the late-NY spike
Break below the 4100.5 NY low (50% of the Monday rally) ends the higher-lows sequence
Close below the 4084.7 London low exposes the 4061 weekly open area
21:05 UTC
Uptrend, pressing the week high · RSI 66 · price 4,140.76
Higher lows from Friday's NFP low; range top 4147-4148 under test.
Gold has recovered all of Friday's NFP drop to 4027.5. Monday opened at 4061, ran to 4134 in the Asia session, then faded to a london low of 4084.7 before higher lows formed through NY. A late-NY push printed 4148.5, a marginal new week high just above Thursday's 4146.9, as the USD softened on US-Iran talk headlines and lower oil. Price sits above the H1 ema20 (~4112) and EMA50 (~4104), with RSI(14) near 66 and not yet stretched.
Support: 4,112.00, 4,100.50, 4,084.70
Resistance: 4,148.50
What it said to watch
H1 acceptance above the 4148.5 week high extends the higher-high sequence; failure here leaves a twin top against Thursday's 4146.9
Loss of the ema20 and the 4100.5 ny low, which aligns with the 38.2% fib, breaks Monday's higher lows
A move back through the 4084.7 london low returns price to the middle of the 4027-4148 range
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, preceded by Waller at 09:00 GMT, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's NFP low; Monday's range top cleared.
Friday's NFP drop held 4027.5, close to the 50% retracement of the week's 3917–4147 impulse, and Monday has retraced nearly all of it as USD gave back post-NFP gains on US-Iran talk hopes and lower yields. Through London and NY, price printed higher lows at 4084.7 and the 4100.5 NY low, which held at EMA(20). The late-NY push then cleared the 4130.8 NY highs to a 4139.3 day high. RSI(14) at 62 sits below the overbought readings that accompanied Thursday's run to the 4146.9 week high.
Support: 4,130.80, 4,100.50
Resistance: 4,139.30, 4,146.90, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, with Waller at 09:00, could materially shift this read; a soft core print puts the 4146.9 week high and 4150 psych level in play
H1 close above the 4146.9 week high extends the recovery past Thursday's peak; stalling below it leaves a potential double top
Hourly close back below the 4130.8 NY highs would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of EMA(20) and the 4100.5 NY low breaks the Monday higher lows trendline
Monday range 4085–4134, higher low held, top capped.
Monday's Asia session lifted gold from the 4054 open area to the 4134.1 monday high as the USD gave back its post-NFP gains on lower yields and Iran-talk risk appetite. The London pullback found demand at the 4084.7 pullback low, almost exactly the 61.8% retracement of that impulse, and a higher low followed. NY hours then produced a rejection near 4130 for a third time, returning price to EMA(20) near 4104 just above the 4100.5 ny low, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 4,100.50, 4,084.70, 4,070.70
Resistance: 4,104.00, 4,134.10, 4,146.90
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4100.5 ny low exposes the 4084.7 pullback low and the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 4084.7 pullback low reopens the 4070.7 friday close
Clearance of the 4134.1 monday high puts last week's 4146.9 prior high in play
Holding below ema20 near 4104 keeps the rejection read intact
Waller at 09:00 GMT and US CPI at 13:30 GMT Tuesday could materially shift this read
Monday higher low at 4,084.68 against a lower high under last week's 4,146.92; intraday range 4,085–4,134.
Gold ran from the 4,061.50 weekly open to a 4,134.13 week high in Monday's Asia session, erasing Friday's NFP-driven drop as the USD pared its post-payrolls gains on Iran peace hopes and lower yields. The London open pulled price back to the 4,084.68 london low, the 61.8% retrace of the Monday impulse fib, and NY then rebuilt toward a 4,130 cap that rejected three times. The late-NY fade has price sitting on EMA(20) near 4,104 and the 38.2% retrace, just above the 4,100 round number, with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s and EMA(50) near 4,088 still below.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4,100 round number exposes the 4,084.68 london low and the 61.8% level of the Monday impulse fib.
Failure to hold 4,084.68 breaks the higher-low line from Friday's NFP low and brings the 4,061.50 weekly open back into view.
Close above the 4,134.13 week high clears the 4,130 cap and the lower-high line from Thursday, leaving last week's 4,146.92 prior high as the next reference.
Headlines from the Trump–Qatar PM meeting on Iran could shift the read into the Asia session.
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, preceded by Waller at 09:00 GMT, could materially shift this read.
17:04 UTC
Recovery from Friday low, stalling below prior high · RSI 51 · price 4,111.54
Higher lows since Friday's 4,027 low against lower highs from 4,146.92.
Gold has fully retraced Friday's NFP-driven drop. The Asia session lifted price from the 4,061.50 weekly open to the 4,134.13 monday high as USD softened on Iran ceasefire hopes and lower oil. The London open dip held the 4,084.68 london low and NY recovered to 4,130, but three hourly tests of 4,130–4,134 have each faded under the lower highs line from Thursday's 4,146.92 prior high. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 4,110 after a ny pullback to 4,105, with RSI(14) back near 51 from the low 70s.
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 4,134.13 monday high, then the 4,146.92 prior high, breaks the lower highs line and the consolidation read
Failure to hold the 4,105 ny pullback low exposes the 4,084.68 london low and then the weekly open at 4,061.50, near the 38.2% of the tue-thu rally
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (~21h), with Barkin today and Waller Tue morning, could materially shift this read
A breakdown at the Trump–Qatar PM meeting on Iran would likely lift oil and USD, changing the context behind Monday's recovery
Higher lows since NFP low, lower highs under 4146.92.
Gold erased Friday's NFP drop to 4027.52 during Monday's Asia session as USD and yields eased, printing a Monday high at 4134.13 before the London open pulled it back to the London low at 4084.68, close to the 50% fib of the post-NFP rally. A NY-session retest of 4130 stalled beneath the lower highs line drawn from Thursday's 4146.92 2-week high. Price holds above the EMA(20) near 4109 with RSI(14) in the mid-50s, so Monday's 4085–4134 range is intact.
Support: 4,109.00, 4,084.68, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Barkin today 17:15 GMT and Waller Tue 09:00 GMT are earlier risk
H1 close above the 4134.13 Monday high breaks the lower highs line and exposes the 4146.92 2-week high
Losing the ema20 and then the 4084.68 London low breaks the higher-low sequence, with the 4061.5 weekly open as the next reference
15:04 UTC
Rebound within broader uptrend, capped below prior high · RSI 60 · price 4,118.45
Higher low at 4085 vs lower high under 4147; 4027–4147 range since Thursday.
Monday's Asia session drove the rebound from the 4061.5 weekly open to the 4134 monday high, erasing Friday's NFP drop as the USD slipped on lower yields and Iran peace hopes. The London open dip to the 4085 london low held as a higher low, and price is now retesting the Monday high with RSI(14) near 60 and pullbacks finding the ema20 around 4102. Friday's 4027.5 NFP low held close to the 50% level of the week impulse from 3899 to 4147, while the lower highs line from Thursday's 4147 prior high still caps the range.
Support: 4,102.00, 4,084.68, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4134 monday high puts the 4147 prior high and the lower highs line in play; a break there ends the range read
Failure to hold the 4085 london low breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 4061.5 weekly open
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 4102 keep the Monday recovery structure intact
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read; Goolsbee/Barkin and the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar meeting are nearer-term risk
Gold has erased Friday's NFP-driven slide to 4027.52 as a softer USD and lower yields lifted the metal. The Asia session rally from the 4061.50 weekly open stalled at the 4134.13 monday high. The early London pullback held 4084.68, the london low and roughly 61.8% of Monday's leg, which sets a higher-lows line. Price is back above EMA(20) near 4100 with RSI(14) around 60, pressing a lower-highs line from Thursday's 4146.92 week high that has capped the range since Thursday.
Support: 4,084.68, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146.92 week high breaks the lower-highs line and the range since Thursday
Loss of the 4084.68 london low breaks Monday's higher lows and puts the 4061.50 weekly open back in focus
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 4100 keep Monday's higher-lows structure intact
Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and Fed's Goolsbee/Barkin today could shift the read via USD and oil
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Rising lows since Friday's NFP low, lower highs from 4147 peak.
Gold has ranged 4027–4147 since Thursday's Asia-session peak. Friday's NFP dip found demand near the 50% retracement of the week's 3899–4147 impulse, and a run of rising lows has formed since. Monday's Asia rally from the 4061.5 weekly open stalled at the 4134 Monday high. The London low at 4084.68 briefly undercut EMA(20), now near 4099, before price recovered into the London-NY transition as USD pared post-payroll gains on Iran-deal hopes. Price is now pressing the lower-highs line from 4147 with RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 4,099.00, 4,084.68, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146.92 prior high breaks the lower-highs line and the range top
Rejection again at the 4134 Monday high keeps the lower-highs sequence intact
Loss of the 4084.68 London low and EMA(20) breaks the rising lows, exposing the 4061.5 weekly open
Fed speakers today, the Trump–Qatar meeting at 17:00 GMT and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
12:04 UTC
Recovering post-NFP, capped below last week's high · RSI 55 · price 4,107.33
Contracting range: higher lows from 4027, lower highs from 4147.
Gold has recovered most of Friday's NFP drop. Monday's Asia session lifted price from the 4061.5 weekly open to a 4134.13 monday high as USD softened on Iran ceasefire hopes. The London pullback found demand at the 4084.68 london low, and price is back above EMA(20) near 4095 with RSI(14) at 55. This leaves H1 in a consolidation of higher lows from the 4027.52 NFP low and lower highs from last week's 4146.92 prior high; that NFP low held near the 50% of the 3895–4147 impulse fib.
Support: 4,095.40, 4,084.68, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4134.13 monday high and the 4146.92 prior high breaks the lower highs line and ends the consolidation read.
Failure to hold the 4084.68 london low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 4061.5 weekly open, with EMA(50) near 4077 just above it.
Bowman at 13:40 UTC and the Trump–Qatar Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT could shift USD and this read. US CPI on Tue at 13:30 UTC is the larger risk.
Higher lows under lower highs, contracting below 4146.92.
Gold has fully retraced Friday's NFP drop to 4027.52 as the USD softened on Iran-peace headlines, with an Asia-session impulse from the weekly open at 4061.5 to the Monday high at 4134.13. The pullback into London open held the 61.8% fib at 4084.68, and price is now back above the ema20 near 4092 with RSI(14) holding the high 50s. The week high at 4146.92 and the Monday high form a pair of lower highs above a rising line of higher lows, so the range is compressing ahead of US CPI.
Support: 4,092.00, 4,084.68, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146.92 week high breaks the lower-highs sequence and the contraction
Failure to hold the 61.8% fib at 4084.68 breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the weekly open at 4061.5
Repeated H1 closes back below the ema20 at ~4092 would point to a stall under the Monday high
Trump–Qatar Iran talks at 17:00 GMT and Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today could shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the main catalyst for a resolution of the 4084–4147 compression
10:05 UTC
Uptrend stalled, ranging below the two-week high · RSI 53 · price 4,096.26
4027–4147 range since Thursday; lower high at 4134, higher low at 4084.7.
Gold has ranged between 4027 and 4147 since Thursday's two-week high, with Friday's NFP low at 4027.5 holding near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday advance. Monday's Asia session rally from the 4061.5 weekly open, helped by a softer USD and the Iran-talks headlines, stalled at the 4134 Monday high, a lower high under the two-week high. London then pared it back to a 4084.7 low near the 23.6% fib, leaving price just above EMA(20) (~4093) with RSI(14) back near 53.
Support: 4,084.68, 4,061.50, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
Holding the 4084.7 London low keeps the higher-low sequence from Friday's NFP low intact. A break exposes the 4061.5 weekly open.
An H1 close above the 4134 Monday high and the 4146.9 two-week high breaks the lower highs line and the range top.
Loss of the 4027.5 NFP low (the 50% fib zone of the Tue–Thu advance) shifts the read to a deeper retracement.
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT, plus today's Fed speakers and the 17:00 GMT Trump–Qatar Iran meeting, could materially shift this read.
4027–4147 range since Thursday; lower high at 4134 under the 2-week high.
Gold has traded a 4,027–4,147 range since Thursday's 2-week high at 4,146.92. Friday's NFP beat drove the range low at 4,027.52, but that drop was recovered into the NY close. Monday opened slightly lower at the 4,061.50 weekly open and the Asia session rallied to a 4,134.13 Asia high on a softer USD and Iran-talk hopes, a lower high beneath Thursday's peak. London open selling then took price back to a 4,084.68 London low. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 4,092, close to the 38.2% fib of the NFP-low rally, with RSI(14) cooling to 54 from the 60s.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,134 Asia high and the 4,146.92 2-week high breaks the lower-high line and the range top
Failure to hold the 4,084.68 London low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4,068 and the 4,061.50 weekly open
Sustained trade below EMA(20) at ~4,092 turns Monday's rebound into a failed retest of the range top
Trump–Qatar Iran talks at 17:00 GMT today and Fed speakers (Bowman, Goolsbee, Barkin) could shift the read before Tuesday
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT is the key event risk for a break of the 4,027–4,147 range
Converging range 4,027–4,147 with a lower high at 4,134.
Gold's midweek impulse ran from 3,895 to the 4,146.9 two-wk high. Friday's NFP beat then drove a NY-session drop to the 4,027.5 nfp low, which held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of that impulse. Monday's Asia-session rally from the weekly open stalled at the 4,134 day high, extending the lower highs, and the fade into the London open has pulled price back to EMA(20) near 4,090, with EMA(50) at about 4,078 below and RSI(14) back near 54.
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4,084.7 day low exposes the weekly open at 4,061.5 and the higher-low line
Close above the 4,134 day high and then the 4,146.9 two-wk high breaks the lower-highs sequence
Failure to hold the 4,027.5 nfp low confirms a lower-low and voids the consolidation read
Fed speakers today, the Trump–Qatar PM meeting at 17:00 GMT and US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Uptrend, pullback after Monday stall below the two-week high · RSI 59 · price 4,109.39
Higher low at 4027.5 after NFP; rebound stalled at 4134, easing toward EMA(20).
Monday's Asia session jumped about $50 off the 4061.5 weekly open, back through the Friday high at 4081 and the 4065/75 zone, as Iran diplomacy hopes and a softer USD offset Friday's NFP-driven selloff. The move stalled at the 4134 Asia high, short of Thursday's 4146.92 two-week high, and price has eased to 4107. It is still above the EMA(20) near 4090, with RSI(14) back to around 59. Friday's NFP low at 4027.5 held near the 50% fib of the Tuesday–Thursday advance from 3895.5, which keeps the higher-low trendline intact.
Support: 4,090.00, 4,081.20, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close below the ema20 near 4090 and the friday high at 4081 would put the weekly open at 4061.5 back in play
Close above the 4134 asia high and the 4146.92 two-week high extends the higher-high sequence
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 4027.5 low (50% fib) would undercut the uptrend read
Fed speakers Bowman (13:40), Goolsbee (15:00) and Barkin (17:15 GMT), plus the Trump–Qatar PM Iran meeting at 17:00 GMT, could reprice hike odds today
US CPI Tue 13:30 GMT (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4054 after NFP dip, breakout above Friday high, now consolidating.
Gold gapped little at the open. It then ran from the 4054 Monday low to 4134 in the Asian session as the USD softened on Iran-deal hopes and lower oil, clearing the 4106.87 Friday high that capped the post-NFP range. Price has since held a 4115–4134 band well above the EMA(20) near 4093. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-60s. Thursday's 4146.92 week high and the Monday high form a short lower-highs sequence overhead, while the higher lows from Friday's 4027 NFP low remain intact.
Support: 4,106.87, 4,093.00, 4,054.37
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4106.87 Friday high turns the Monday breakout into a false break and puts the ema20 near 4093 in play
Close above the 4146.92 week high breaks the lower-highs line from Thursday
Loss of the 4054 Monday low breaks the higher-lows sequence off the NFP low
Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin from 13:40 UTC today could materially shift this read
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for the week's range
05:05 UTC
Uptrend from Tuesday's 3896 low, consolidating below the week high · RSI 62 · price 4,123.02
Lower high at 4134 under 4146.92, rising lows from 4027.52; price in upper half of the post-Thursday range.
Gold pushed through Friday's high at 4106.87 in Monday's Asia session as the USD softened on Iran-deal headlines. Price is back above EMA(20) near 4090 with RSI(14) near 62, after Friday's post-NFP slide to 4027.52 held between the 38.2% and 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday impulse. The advance stalled at a Monday high of 4134.13, a lower high beneath Thursday's 4146.92 2-week high, leaving price compressing between lower highs and rising lows from the NFP low.
Support: 4,106.87, 4,090.00, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4106.87 fri high returns price to Friday's range and exposes ema20 near 4090
Close above the 4146.92 2-week high breaks the lower-highs line and extends the uptrend from Tuesday's low
Failure to hold the weekly open at 4061.5 breaks the rising-lows line and points back to the 38.2% retracement near 4051
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin from 13:40 UTC today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4027.5 Fri; Monday lower high at 4134 vs 4147.
Gold has held an H1 uptrend of higher lows since Tuesday's 3896 low, with the post-midterm leg through 4000 on Wednesday and an Asia-session push to the 4146.92 two-week high on Thursday. Friday's NFP beat knocked price to 4027.5 into the NY open, a higher low just above the 50% fib of the week's impulse, and Monday's Asia session rallied from the 4061.5 weekly open back above both EMAs to a 4134 Asian high. RSI(14) sits near 61 with price roughly 30 above the EMA20 at 4086, while the Asian high is so far a lower high beneath Thursday's peak.
Support: 4,086.00, 4,061.50, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,134.13, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146.92 2-week high breaks the lower highs line and extends the uptrend
Rejection at the 4134 asian high keeps price inside the Thu–Mon consolidation
Loss of the EMA20 near 4086 exposes the 4061.5 weekly open
Break below the 4027.52 nfp low undercuts the higher lows trendline and the 50% fib
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, plus Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 3895.5 via 4027.5 NFP low; Asia reclaimed 4100.
Gold has carved higher lows since Tuesday's 3895.5 low. The week's upside legs printed in Asia hours, while pullbacks came during NY, including the NFP-driven drop to 4027.5 that held near the 50% fib of the 3895–4147 impulse. Monday's Asian session reclaimed the friday high at 4106 and the 4100 handle from the 4061.5 weekly open, on Democratic-majority and Iran de-escalation speculation. That leaves price above the ema20 near 4082 with RSI(14) around 65, just under the 4134 session high and the 4147 week high.
Support: 4,106.00, 4,082.00, 4,061.50
Resistance: 4,134.10, 4,146.90
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the friday high at 4106 returns price to Friday's range and puts the ema20 near 4082 in play
H1 close above the 4147 week high extends the higher-lows sequence; a second rejection beneath it would leave a double top in view
Loss of the 4061.5 weekly open would undercut the higher-lows trendline from Tuesday's low
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin today and US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Uptrend, higher low held after NFP · RSI 64 · price 4,124.86
Higher low at 4027.5 at the 50% fib, pressing toward the 4146.92 week high.
Gold climbed from Tuesday's 3895.5 low to a 4146.92 week high in Thursday's Asia session as the Democratic midterm sweep weighed on the USD. Friday's NFP beat then pulled price back roughly half the impulse to the 4027.5 NFP low, near the 50% fib, where buyers stepped in. Monday's Asia session cleared Friday's 4081 high and the lower-high line in two bars on Iran-peace speculation, leaving price well above EMA(20) near 4080 with RSI(14) at 64 and just under the 4126.95 session high.
Support: 4,080.00, 4,061.50, 4,027.52
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4146.92 week high extends the uptrend from Tuesday's low
Failure to hold 4080 (ema20 and Friday's highs) exposes the weekly open at 4061.5 and the higher-low line
Break below the 4027.5 NFP low ends the higher-low sequence
Fed's Bowman (13:40 UTC) and Goolsbee (15:00 UTC) today, then US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4,054.4 above the NFP low; price retesting the Friday high.
Gold carried the post-election impulse from Tuesday's 3,895.5 low to a 4,146.9 week high on Thursday. It then printed lower highs into Friday as the NFP beat revived December hike odds, with the NFP low at 4,027.5 holding between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that move and above the rising trendline from Tuesday's low. Monday's Asia session dipped to 4,054.4, below the prior close, before a single-bar $50 lift to 4,110 put price back at the friday high, with RSI(14) near 63 and price above both EMAs.
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4,106.9 friday high clears the Friday range and opens the 4,128 thu rebound high, then the 4,146.9 week high
Slipping back below the 4,070.7 prior close, where EMA(20) has converged, returns price to Friday's range and puts the 4,054.4 monday low in focus
Loss of the rising trendline (near 4,047) and the 4,027.5 nfp low would break the week's higher-low sequence
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC. Their comments could shift hike odds during NY hours.
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC is the main event risk for this read
Lower highs since Thursday's 4146.92 peak, ranging 4027-4081 since Friday.
Wednesday's post-election impulse from 3919.95 ran to the 4146.92 week high in Thursday's Asia session. Since then the H1 has printed a sequence of lower highs at 4135.92, the 4106.87 lower high and the 4078.54 post-NFP high. Friday's NFP beat knocked gold to the 4027.52 NFP low, near the 50% retracement of the impulse, before the NY session recovered it. Monday's Asia open has slipped back under EMA(20) near 4066 and set a Monday low at 4054.37. Price is sitting on the 38.2% retracement around 4060, with RSI(14) holding in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,054.37, 4,027.52, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,078.54, 4,106.87, 4,146.92
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 4027.52 NFP low and 50% fib exposes the 4000 psych level and the 61.8% near 4006.
A close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4078.54 post-NFP high reopens the 4106.87 lower high, with the 4146.92 week high beyond.
Failure to hold the Monday low at 4054.37 keeps price below EMA(20) and extends the lower-highs sequence.
Fed speakers Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak Mon 13:40–17:15 UTC, and Waller speaks Tue 09:00 UTC; all can shift December hike pricing.
US CPI Tue 13:30 UTC (core f/c 0.2% m/m) could break the 4027-4081 consolidation either way.