Gold spent the window in a clear downtrend, accelerating into a flush that printed a cycle low near 4023 before stabilising on roughly equal lows — a bullish RSI divergence as selling exhausted. A weekend gap higher kicked off the ~$300 rebound off the six-month low, with price now pressing the 4369 session high after reclaiming both EMAs; context ties the recovery to the US-Iran ceasefire draining haven demand. Structure remains corrective beneath the chain of lower highs, with the 4200 pivot the key dividing line into Wednesday's FOMC.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,200.00, 4,067.00
Resistance: 4,369.00, 4,440.00
What it said to watch
Close above 4369 session high opens the path toward the 4440 prior range
Loss of 4280 swing low reopens the 4200 pivot and the 4067 cycle low
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC could materially reshape this read
Violent leg lower to 4023, sharp recovery, gap higher.
Price spent the past two weeks rolling over from 4595 to a six-month low at 4023 before a ~3.5% snapback and a weekend gap higher reopened the tape near 4295. The bounce off 4023 has reclaimed the EMA20 and stalled into the 4335 session high, with the gap low at 4280 now the first floor. Still structurally a downtrend until the prior 4470 swing high is recovered.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,218.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,335.00, 4,400.00, 4,470.00
What it said to watch
Sustained close above 4335 session high opens the path toward 4400 psych and the 4470 swing high
Failure to hold 4280 gap low risks filling back toward the 4218 prior high
FOMC projections Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the defining catalyst and can reset this read
Recovery off 6mo low, lower-high structure intact above.
Gold collapsed roughly $400 to a six-month low at 4023 as hot CPI/PPI revived Fed-hike bets and lifted the dollar; price is now mounting an oversold recovery and testing the 0.618 retracement of the 4515-4023 down-leg near 4325. A weekend gap higher, attributed to US-Iran de-escalation, reclaimed the EMA20 while the EMA50 still caps overhead around 4360-4450. ATR(14) remains heavily expanded after the slide, signalling the move is far from settled.
Support: 4,218.00, 4,100.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,360.00, 4,450.00
What it said to watch
FOMC projections (Jun 17, 18:00 UTC) are the dominant catalyst and could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 4360 swing high extends the recovery toward the 4450 prior range
Failure to hold the 4218 gap fill reopens the 4100 psych level and the 4023 six-month low
Gold collapsed roughly $400 to a six-month low at 4023 as hot CPI and a 1.1% PPI beat revived Fed hike bets, before US-Iran de-escalation sparked short-covering. The last two bars gapped higher off the 4218 gap base and recovered to 4325, lifting price back above EMA20 while EMA50 still caps overhead near the lower-high band. The broader H4 sequence remains a downtrend; this is a recovery from oversold, not a confirmed reversal.
Support: 4,218.00, 4,100.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,363.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
FOMC projections Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
A close above the 4363 lower high opens the path toward the 4400 swing high
Failure to hold the 4218 gap base reopens 4100 and the 4023 six-month low
H4 remains in a clear downtrend after a ~$400 slide that broke through the 200-DMA into a 4023 six-month low, but selling has stalled and price is mean-reverting. A weekend gap up to 4295 — helped by soft US core CPI/PPI prints and Iran de-escalation trimming the USD bid — reclaimed the EMA20 while EMA50 (~4515) still caps overhead. ATR(14) is elevated, reflecting an expansion regime rather than compression.
Support: 4,131.31
Resistance: 4,346.39, 4,435.00, 4,515.45
What it said to watch
FOMC dot plot + Retail Sales Jun 17 are the dominant catalysts and could override this read
A close back below 4218 leaves the gap unsupported and re-engages the downtrend
A close above 4346 opens the path toward the 4435 prior range
Failure to hold 4131 reopens the 4023 six-month low
Price spent the window in a vicious ~$400 slide to a 6-month low at 4023 as in-line CPI and firm oil kept Fed hike bets alive, driving gold through the 200-DMA. Since the low, structure has built early higher lows (4052, 4131, 4183) and this session gapped up to 4295, reclaiming EMA20 while still capped below EMA50. The recovery is corrective within a dominant downtrend.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,100.00, 4,023.00
Resistance: 4,346.00, 4,435.00
What it said to watch
FOMC rate projections Jun 17 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and can override this read
H4 close above 4346 would extend the bounce toward 4435