Gold rebounded roughly 6.5% off the $4,024 base as US-Iran de-escalation crushed oil and softened the USD, and price is now consolidating in a 4280-4370 band, repeatedly stalling below the $4,400 ceiling. Higher-low structure holds since the spike low and price has reclaimed both EMAs, but ATR has compressed sharply through the recovery, pointing to coiling rather than extension. Recent bars show buyers defending the 4280 area while supply caps each push toward 4370.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,370.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tomorrow 18:00 UTC plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H4 close above 4400 opens the path toward the 4394-4580 zone
Failure to hold 4280 risks a retest of 4200, then the 4024 base
Gold rebounded roughly 6.5% off the 4024 base after the US-Iran de-escalation drained the oil and safe-haven premium and softened the USD, leaving a clean string of higher lows. Price gapped up into 4295 and ran to a 4368 recent high, but momentum has stalled into a tight consolidation just under the well-worn 4400 ceiling. With ATR still elevated the recovery is intact above the 4280 swing low, while the 4200 support and 4024 base mark the downside structure.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,368.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above 4368/4400 ceiling opens the 4394-4580 zone
Failure to hold 4280 swing low exposes 4200 support then the 4024 base
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC and FOMC decision 18:00 UTC tomorrow are the dominant catalysts and can reset this read
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce off base · RSI 56 · price 4,338.73
Recovery from 4024 low, stalling under 4400.
Price sold off hard through early-month to a 4024 base, then staged a ~6.5% rebound as the US-Iran de-escalation drained the oil/geopolitical premium and softened the USD. The recovery has stalled into a tight 4300-4370 consolidation just below the well-worn 4400 ceiling, having retraced most of the prior decline. ATR remains elevated after the crash, and a weekend gap up from 4218 to 4295 underpins the current range.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,400.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision tomorrow 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
H4 close above 4400 ceiling opens the path toward the 4460-4580 zone
Failure to hold 4280 swing low reopens 4200 support, then the 4024 base
05:03 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off base · RSI 58 · price 4,331.53
Recovery off 4024 low, consolidating below 4369.
Gold based at 4024 and rallied roughly $300 as soft US CPI/PPI and the US-Iran peace deal deflated inflation and safe-haven premia, with a weekend gap up from the 4218 area. Price now consolidates 4300-4369 after a rejection at the 4369 swing high, stalling just under the 4351 weekly high. ATR(14) remains elevated from the prior impulse, but the last several bars are compressing into a tighter range.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,218.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,351.00, 4,369.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision + dot plot Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst and could reset this read
H4 close above 4369 opens the path back toward the prior 4500s shelf
Failure to hold the 4280 gap zone exposes the 4218 rebound base
H4 ran a multi-week downtrend from 4563 to the 4024 base on June-10, then rebounded sharply as the dollar softened on the US-Iran framework, with a weekend gap up through the 4280 area. Price has retraced much of the down-leg and is now testing the 4369 swing high while ATR stays elevated. The Wednesday FOMC dot-plot is the binary driver into the next sessions.
Support: 4,280.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,369.00, 4,450.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4369 extends the recovery toward 4450
Failure to hold the 4280 gap base reopens 4200 and the 4024 june low