Lower high at 4380, sharp break below the recovery range.
The 6.5% rebound off the ~4024 year-lows stalled at 4382 and reversed hard, with the hawkish FOMC dot-shift and a hot retail print driving a 160-point bearish bar that snapped the 4310–4380 consolidation. Price closed at 4245, back below both EMA20 and EMA50, re-establishing the broader downtrend. ATR(14) just expanded sharply, marking a shift out of the prior compression.
Support: 4,170.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,382.00
What it said to watch
Close below 4200 psych opens 4170 then the 4100/4024 swing lows
Reclaim of the 4300 pivot needed to neutralise the rejection
Jobless Claims + Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-FOMC move
The multi-day bounce off the 4024 year-low stalled into the 4380 area and was violently rejected on the close, with gold shedding ~135 points to 4245 as the hawkish FOMC dot revision and a hot 0.9% retail sales print revived Fed-hike pricing. Structure remains a sequence of lower highs from the early-window 4595 peak, and price has slipped back below both EMAs. The 4300 pivot is now overhead supply after acting as the launchpad for the failed rally.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,300.00
What it said to watch
Loss of 4200 opens the path back toward the 4024 year low
Reclaim of 4300 pivot would repair the rejected bounce
Jobless Claims + Philly Fed Thu 12:30 UTC could extend or fade the post-FOMC drop
17:03 UTC
Recovery uptrend off year lows · RSI 59 · price 4,364.72
Higher lows since the 4024 trough, grinding into resistance.
Gold has clawed back roughly 6.5% off the 4024 year low, printing a clean higher-low sequence with a weekend gap up through 4218 fuelling the squeeze after US-Iran de-escalation. Price now grinds into the 4394-4400 resistance shelf with EMA20 and EMA50 reclaimed; ATR remains elevated but the latest bars are compressing into a tight 4300-4365 climb. The whole read is hostage to the FOMC dot plot due imminently.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,218.00, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,394.00, 4,400.00, 4,460.00
What it said to watch
FOMC rate decision + dot plot at 18:00 UTC (~1h) can materially reshape this read
Close above 4400 clears the resistance shelf and opens the path toward 4460
Loss of the 4300 pivot exposes the 4218 gap then 4200
Consolidating below resistance after recovery off lows.
Gold shed roughly 12% across the window from 4595 to 4024 as the US-Iran de-escalation crushed oil and inflation premia. The rebound off the lows has stalled into a 4300-4369 consolidation, capping just under the 4369-4394 resistance band that aligns with the 0.618 retrace of the impulse down. ATR remains elevated, reflecting the expanded volatility regime into Warsh's first FOMC.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,369.00, 4,394.00, 4,580.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4369 opens the path toward 4394 then the 4580 band
Failure to hold 4300 reopens 4200, then the 4024 major low
FOMC + dot-plot at 18:00 UTC and US Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold sold off from the 4580 range high to a 4024 swing low before a sharp ~6.5% relief bounce on US-Iran de-escalation, now consolidating above the 4300 pivot. Price holds above a rising EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI back near midline, but the rebound is stalling under the 4355 swing high and 4394 prior high. ATR stays elevated from the impulse leg; loss of 4300 exposes the 4200 prior low.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,355.00, 4,394.00, 4,580.00
What it said to watch
H4 close below 4300 opens 4200 then 4024
Reclaim of 4355 then 4394 needed to extend the rebound
FOMC dot plot 18:00 UTC the dominant catalyst, two-way risk
US Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could shift this read pre-decision
Gold dumped to 4024 before staging a ~6.5% relief rebound on the US-Iran de-escalation, and is now consolidating in a 4300-4369 band having reclaimed the EMA20. Structure shows a higher-low base, but the recovery is stalling under the 4369 swing high with the EMA50 capping just overhead. Two-way risk dominates into Warsh's first FOMC.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,369.00, 4,394.00, 4,580.00
What it said to watch
Close above 4369 swing high exposes 4394 then 4580 overhead
Loss of the 4300 pivot opens 4200 then the 4024 rebound low
FOMC dot plot at 18:00 UTC is the dominant catalyst; Retail Sales 12:30 UTC can pre-position the dollar
Price collapsed roughly 12% from the 4490 region to a 4024 base before a ~6.5% rebound on the US-Iran de-escalation that softened oil and the USD. A weekend gap higher (4218 to 4296) lifted the recovery, but the move has stalled into a tight 4300-4370 consolidation just under the well-defended 4400 ceiling. Buyers have repeatedly defended the 4300 range floor while supply caps the 4370 swing high.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,218.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,370.00, 4,400.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Retail Sales 12:30 UTC can materially reset this read
H4 close above 4370 opens the path toward the 4400 ceiling
Failure to hold 4300 reopens the 4218 pre-gap close and 4024 base
Gold sold off hard from the 4500s into a 4024 base before rebounding ~6.5% on US-Iran de-escalation that softened oil and the USD. Price now consolidates below the 4400 ceiling, carving higher lows off the base while a falling-highs line still caps the recovery. ATR has cooled from the crash spike but remains elevated heading into the FOMC decision.
Support: 4,300.00, 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,400.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above 4400 opens the path toward the 4394-4580 resistance zone
Failure to hold 4300 reopens 4200, then the 4024 base
FOMC at 18:00 UTC and Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read