Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, corrective bounce · RSI 45 · price 4,317.47
Lower highs/lows, basing off 4024.
Multi-month downtrend from the late-Feb peak near 5419 to an early-June base at 4024, a roughly 25% decline that kept price below a falling EMA(50). The last three sessions staged a ~6.5% rebound on US-Iran de-escalation and a softer USD, gapping higher this week but stalling below the 4400 ceiling. Softer core PPI and easing Michigan inflation expectations underpinned the bounce, yet the recovery has yet to reclaim EMA(20).
Support: 4,210.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,580.00
What it said to watch
- FOMC at 18:00 UTC tomorrow plus Retail Sales could materially shift this read
- Repeated stalls into 4400 — area to watch for rejection or break
- Failure to hold 4210 reopens the 4024 base
- Daily close above 4400 would challenge the 4394-4580 supply zone
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, rebound off the base · RSI 46 · price 4,317.47
Lower highs/lows since Feb peak; bouncing from 4024 lows.
Multi-month downtrend from the late-Feb peak near 5419, with price trading below EMA(50) on D1 since the March breakdown and a fresh leg to the 4024 base over the last two weeks. A sharp ~6.5% rebound followed on US-Iran de-escalation softening oil and the USD, but the recovery has stalled under the 4400 ceiling where bulls have repeatedly faded. Price now consolidates near 4317 ahead of the Warsh-led FOMC.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,024.00
Resistance: 4,400.00, 4,580.00
What it said to watch
- FOMC decision tomorrow 18:00 UTC (plus Retail Sales 12:30 UTC) is the defining catalyst for this read
- Daily close above the 4400 ceiling opens the path toward 4580 resistance
- Failure to hold 4200 support reopens the 4024 base