Lower highs from 4680 into the 4235 month low, higher lows since.
The dominant H4 sequence is still lower highs — 4680, then 4510, then 4402 — with the hawkish FOMC hike and the strong retail sales/claims/Philly Fed run driving the leg into the 4235 month low. That spike low was recovered inside the same bar and price has since built higher lows off 4257 and 4304, carrying back to the 4366-4381 swing high area, but EMA20 (~4325) remains below EMA50 (~4352) and price is pinned between them. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 42 dollars on the 133-point wide-range bar, so swings are wider rather than compressing.
Support: 4,304.00, 4,275.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,381.00, 4,402.00
What it said to watch
A close above the 4381 swing high would break the lower-highs sequence and put the 4402 prior high back in play
Failure to hold the 4304 pivot low reopens the 4275 pivot and the 4235 month low
EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 would neutralise the downtrend read
Fed's Bowman (Fri 07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) fall in the next bars and can shift this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since 4680; price recovering off the 4235 low.
The three-week sequence of lower highs (4680, 4510, 4443, 4402) and lower lows remains the dominant H4 structure, with the hawkish Fed hike and raised dot path driving the slide into a 4235 month low. That low came on a single wide bar that closed back near 4264 — a false break that has since been followed by two firm bars back through the ema20 near 4326, with RSI holding above its earlier lows despite the lower price low. ATR(14) around 43 dollars is elevated rather than compressed, so swings inside the 4235-4381 recovery band are wide.
Support: 4,326.00, 4,264.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,381.00, 4,402.00, 4,443.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4381 week high would break the sequence of lower highs and expose 4402 prior high
Loss of the 4326 ema20 area on a closing basis returns focus to 4264 swing low and the 4235 month low
Price still below EMA50 — a bullish ema cross would be the first structural shift in three weeks
Bowman speech and US Industrial Production on Friday fall inside the next H4 bars and could reprice the bounce
Lower highs and lower lows since 4696; price recovering into the upper half of the descending channel.
Three weeks of lower highs (4696 → 4510 → 4402 → 4368) and lower lows framed a clean descending channel, with the hawkish Fed hike and raised dot path driving the flush to a one-month low at 4235 before easing yields and a softer crude tape allowed a recovery. The bounce has reclaimed the 4326 100-day SMA area and both EMA20 and EMA50, and the 4235 low printed against higher momentum lows than the 4253 print — a bullish RSI divergence — while ATR(14) around 41 dollars shows an expanded, headline-driven range. Price is now pressing the 4361-4368 prior high shelf that has capped every attempt this week.
Support: 4,326.00, 4,275.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,368.00, 4,402.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4368 prior high would break the sequence of lower highs and expose the 4402 swing high
Failure to hold the 4326 100-day sma keeps the corrective read intact; loss of the 4275 break level reopens the 4235 month low
Fed's Bowman (Fri 07:30 UTC) and US Industrial Production (Fri 13:15 UTC) are the near-term events capable of reshaping this structure
A stall here with ATR staying elevated would mark the move as a bounce inside the channel rather than a base
Lower highs and lower lows since 4696; price back at EMA50 after 4235 low.
The three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows remains intact — 4696 gave way to caps at 4402 (prior high) and most recently the 4361-4368 swing high, while the hawkish Fed hike and the US 10-year through 5% pushed bullion through 4275 into the 4235 month low. The last two sessions have retraced roughly 70% of the 4402-4235 leg, and the closing print at 4352 sits exactly on the H4 ema50, which has capped every prior recovery attempt in this window. ATR(14) near 41 points is expanded rather than compressed after the 133-point washout bar, so ranges are wide and the bounce is developing inside a still-descending channel with ema20 (4319) below ema50.
Support: 4,319.00, 4,275.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,352.00, 4,368.00, 4,402.00
What it said to watch
Sustained H4 close above the 4368 swing high would break the lower-high sequence that has defined the last three weeks
Rejection at the ema50 / 4352 and a slip back under the ema20 near 4319 keeps the corrective read on the bounce
Failure to hold 4275 swing low re-opens the 4235 month low as the reference point
US Pending Home Sales today 14:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman Friday 07:30 UTC are the near-term events capable of shifting the yield backdrop behind this structure
Lower highs and lower lows since 4510.88; fresh low at 4235 wicked and reclaimed.
The H4 sequence has been lower highs and lower lows since the 4510.88 peak, and the hawkish FOMC hike plus a 10-year yield near 5% drove the final leg through 4275 into the 4235 month low. That low was wicked and immediately reclaimed — the following bars have built back to 4352, roughly the 38.2% retracement of the 4510.88–4235.03 downswing, with price back above EMA20 near 4308 and just above a flattening EMA50 around 4343 while EMA20 still sits below EMA50. ATR(14) has expanded sharply on the 133-dollar FOMC bar, so this is an expanding-volatility regime rather than compression, and the 4368 lower high remains the first structural cap.
Support: 4,305.13, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,368.10, 4,402.32
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4368 lower high would break the lower-high sequence and expose 4402 swing high
Failure to hold the 4305 recent low re-opens 4257 swing low and the 4235 month low
EMA20 crossing back above EMA50 would confirm the bounce is more than corrective
US Pending Home Sales today 14:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman Friday 07:30 UTC could reprice yields and shift this read within a bar or two
Lower highs since 4680; basing above the 4235 spike low.
Three weeks of persistent lower highs — 4680, 4510, 4434, 4402, 4368 — kept the H4 downtrend intact, and the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% with 10y yields near 5% delivered the flush to a 4235 month low before the bar closed back at 4264, a false break that has since been followed by four consecutive higher lows (4257, 4274, 4304, 4305). Price now presses the EMA50 at roughly 4352 from below with EMA20 still beneath it, so the bearish cross state is unchanged even as the last bar closed at 4340. ATR(14) near 4050 pips remains elevated after the FOMC expansion, keeping the 4235-4368 post-event band wide rather than compressed.
Support: 4,305.00, 4,275.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,352.00, 4,368.00, 4,402.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4368 prior high would break the lower-high sequence that has defined the window
Reclaim and hold above the 4352 ema50 needed before the 4402 swing high comes into range
Failure to hold the 4305 swing low reopens the 4275 pivot and the 4235 month low
US claims / Philly Fed cluster at 12:30 UTC and Bowman Friday could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs and lower lows since 4696; last bar reclaims the 4327 shelf.
Gold has ground out a sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 4696 down to the 4235 month low, the final leg driven by the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and 10-year yields near 5%. The FOMC bar wicked to 4235 and closed 100 points off the low — a false break that has since been followed by four bars of repair, with the last candle closing at 4340.28 back above the 4327 100-dma shelf that capped every rally this week. ATR(14) around 40 points shows an expanded, headline-driven regime rather than compression, and 4361 (prior high) is the first structural test of the bounce.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,264.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,361.00, 4,402.00
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4361 prior high would break the descending lower-highs line and open the 4402 swing high
Failure to hold 4327 (100-dma) on a closing basis returns focus to the 4264 swing low
A close below the 4235 month low confirms continuation of the lower-low sequence
US claims / Philly Fed cluster at 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC can reprice yields and materially shift this read within the next bar