Lower highs since the Jan blow-off, base at 3940-4000 intact.
The trend that ran from 3000 to the 5598 spike high in late January has given way to a multi-quarter reversion phase: gold has spent the last two quarters between the 3940-4000 base and a sequence of lower highs running from the 4889 prior high down to the 4696 swing high. Price at 4342.67 sits mid-range, holding above a flattening w1 ema50 at 4219 but capped under the ema20 near 4366, and the last three weekly closes have drifted lower off the 4696 rejection. The hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% with 10y yields near 5% is the macro headwind behind that stall, while central-bank and ETF demand keeps the 4235 swing low area defended rather than broken.
Support: 4,235.03, 4,218.54, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,366.31, 4,889.10
What it said to watch
A weekly close below the 4235 swing low and the w1 ema50 at 4219 would confirm a lower low and shift the range read toward the 4000 psych area
A weekly close above the 4696 swing high would end the lower-highs sequence and reopen the 4889 prior high
Sustained trade back above the ema20 near 4366 would restore the mid-range balance seen through the last two quarters
US 10y around 5% and next week's S&P Global PMIs are the macro inputs most likely to change this regime read
Lower highs since Q1 peak, higher lows building above 3942.
The parabolic advance that ran from roughly 3000 in Q2 2025 to the 5598 spike high in late January has given way to an eight-month corrective regime: lower highs at 5419, 5119 and 4696 against higher lows above the 3942 range floor. Price closed the week at 4342.67, pinned between the W1 EMA(50) near 4218 and the W1 EMA(20) near 4366, with the rebound off 3942 stalling after the hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and 10-year yields near 5% restored the real-yield headwind for non-yielding bullion. RSI(14) at 49 is mid-range and carries no information at this scale — the regime read rests on whether the 4235 weekly low and the EMA(50) shelf continue to hold.
Support: 4,235.03, 4,218.00
Resistance: 4,366.00, 5,000.00
What it said to watch
Weekly close below the 4235 weekly low, and loss of the w1 ema50 at 4218, would extend the correction toward the 3942 range floor
Reclaiming the w1 ema20 near 4366 and then a weekly close above the 4696 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
The 5000 psych level and the January 5598 high remain the ceiling of the broader distribution range
Continued upward drift in US front-end yields and October hike pricing is the macro variable capable of resetting this regime read over coming weeks
11:58 UTC
Corrective downtrend inside a broad post-peak range · RSI 41 · price 4,342.67
Lower highs from the Q1 peak, holding above the summer swing low.
The parabolic advance that ran from roughly 3000 to the 5598 spike high topped out in Q1 and has since resolved into a wide corrective range, with the Q1 high at 5280 capping on a closing basis and the range low at 3942.64 set in early summer. The rebound off that low stalled at the 4696 prior high and four weeks of lower closes have pushed price back under the ema20 at 4366, though it still holds above the ema50 at 4218 — macro structure is corrective rather than broken. The hawkish Fed hike to 3.75-4.00% and 10y yields near 5% are the drag behind the latest leg, with last week's candle rejecting from 4368 and closing near 4342 just off the 4235 swing low.
Support: 4,235.03, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,366.30, 5,280.28
What it said to watch
A weekly close below the 4235 swing low would extend the corrective leg toward the 3942 range low
Loss of the ema50 at 4218 on a weekly close would mark the first regime shift since the Q1 top
Reclaiming 4696 prior high is required to re-establish higher highs within the range
US Services PMI next week and the October Fed hike pricing debate can materially shift the weekly read