V-recovery off week low, now tight consolidation under Thursday's highs.
The 18:00 GMT FOMC bar on Wednesday gutted gold from 4368 to the 4235 week low on the hawkish 25bp hike and lifted dots, but Thursday reversed all of it — London into the NY session drove a breakout above the pre-FOMC high to 4381.15, the week high, as Treasury yields eased. Price has since faded back to 4342 and spent the last four bars coiling in a sub-1000-pip range on the ema20 zone, with RSI(14) unwinding from 70s to the mid-50s while holding above the 4327 pivot that capped Wednesday's Asian rally.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,305.10
Resistance: 4,356.00, 4,381.15
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4356 prior high reopens the 4372/4381.15 week high band
Loss of the ema20 zone and the 4327 pivot would put the 4305 swing low back in focus and break the Thursday higher-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT are the only scheduled risks in the next session and could reset this consolidation
Higher lows since the FOMC flush, first pullback from the week high.
The dominant bar of the week is Wednesday's FOMC candle, which dumped gold from 4368 to a 4235.03 one-month low in two hours; since then price has built a clean higher-low sequence off 4258 and, in the NY session yesterday, broke through the 100-dma area near 4326 to a week high of 4381.15 as US yields eased. The last four bars have drifted back into the 4342-4346 area, with price now sitting just above the ema20 at 4337.9 and the ema50 at 4324.5, and RSI(14) unwinding from the high-60s to 52. Prior high at 4370 capped the late-NY attempt, leaving the 4370-4381 band as the unresolved hurdle on this leg.
Support: 4,337.90, 4,326.00, 4,306.00
Resistance: 4,370.00, 4,381.15
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 100-dma at 4326 would break the higher-low sequence built since Wednesday's low
Loss of 4306 swing low would confirm the post-FOMC rebound has failed
Sustained acceptance above the 4370 prior high puts the 4381.15 week high back in focus
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) fall in the next session and could reprice this read
Higher highs / higher lows since Wednesday's low, now pulling back into EMA20.
The week's dominant move was the post-FOMC flush that took gold from the 4360s to 4235 in two hours on Wednesday, and the NY session on Thursday reversed a large part of it — price broke through the 4327 area that had capped the bounce and extended to a 4381 week high. Since that spike, four hourly bars have faded back toward the EMA20 at 4338, with RSI(14) rolling off the mid-60s to the mid-50s rather than resetting to oversold. The sequence of higher lows from 4235 through 4274 and 4305 is still intact, and the 4370 prior high is now the first hurdle overhead.
Support: 4,338.00, 4,323.40, 4,305.10
Resistance: 4,370.00, 4,381.20
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4338 ema20 and then the 4323 swing low would break the higher-low sequence built since Wednesday
Acceptance back under the 4327 area reopens the 4305 prior low
Reclaim of the 4370 prior high is required to re-engage the 4381 week high
Fed's Bowman (07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (13:15 GMT) Friday could reset this read within the next few bars
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, upside stalling under 4381.
The FOMC hike bar gutted 111 dollars in a single hour into Wednesday's NY session, printing a one-month low at 4235 before demand stepped in through Thursday's London-NY stretch as Treasury yields eased. That recovery has been a clean sequence of higher lows, reclaiming the 4327 100-dma that capped the metal all week and extending to 4381 in the NY session, but the last four bars have leaked back to 4346 with RSI(14) rolling off 70 without a new high. Price is now sitting almost exactly on EMA(20), with the 4365 supply band the immediate cap.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,305.00, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,365.00, 4,381.15
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT are the only scheduled risk into the next sessions and can reprice the yield-driven bounce
An hourly close back below the 4327 100-dma would break the higher-lows sequence and put the 4305 swing low back in focus
Acceptance above 4381 week high would confirm the breakout rather than a failed extension
Loss of EMA(20) with RSI(14) slipping under 50 would mark the recovery leg stalling
Higher lows since the post-FOMC flush; week high at 4381 unbroken.
The week opened near 4367 and ground lower until Wednesday's FOMC bar sliced ~110 dollars in a single hour to a 4235 one-month low, since when price has built an unbroken series of higher lows. The NY session on Thursday cleared the 4327 100-dma that had capped every attempt this week and extended to a 4381 week high as US yields pulled back, before fading into the close to 4353 with RSI(14) rolling off the mid-60s. Price still sits above EMA20 near 4340, and the 4327 area has flipped from cap to first shelf on this leg.
Support: 4,340.00, 4,327.00, 4,305.10
Resistance: 4,381.20
What it said to watch
An hourly close back below 4327 (100-dma) would negate the breakout and turn the reclaim into a false break
Loss of the 4305 swing low ends the higher-low sequence built since Wednesday
Acceptance above the 4372 mon high / 4381 week high band is the condition for the recovery leg to extend
Fed's Bowman at 07:30 GMT and US Industrial Production at 13:15 GMT Friday can reprice the yield-driven bounce within the next few bars
Higher lows since yesterday's FOMC flush, now consolidating on the shelf top.
The dominant bar of the week was yesterday's NY-session collapse from 4368 to 4257 on the hawkish FOMC dot path, and price has retraced all of it: this NY session broke through the 4361-4371 shelf top and printed a week high at 4381 as yields and crude cooled, before easing back to close at 4360.8. Higher lows have held since the 4235 low with each pullback finding demand well above the rising EMA(20) at 4337.5, and RSI(14) at 65 has flattened over the last three bars while price stalls at the shelf top. The 4327 pivot shelf that capped the market repeatedly earlier in the week is now the first structural floor beneath EMA(20).
Support: 4,337.50, 4,327.00, 4,275.00
Resistance: 4,371.00, 4,381.20
What it said to watch
Hourly closes back below the 4371 shelf top keep the breakout unconfirmed and the week high at 4381 as the cap
A close below the 4337.5 ema20 would be the first break of this session's higher-low sequence
Loss of the 4275 break level would reopen the 4235 week low
Bowman speech and US Industrial Production in the coming hours can materially shift this read
17:06 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the FOMC low, momentum firm · RSI 62 · price 4,364.28
Higher lows and higher highs since Wednesday's spike low; trading back above the weekly open.
Monday's open near 4334.7 was lost through midweek and the hawkish FOMC dot plot produced a single-bar collapse from 4368 to 4235 in Wednesday's NY session, the week's low. Since then price has built a clean sequence of higher lows — 4257, 4274, 4305 — and the NY session yesterday and today drove a breakout back through the 4328/4335 pivot, which now sits as the ema20 after a shallow retest; RSI(14) at ~62 with price above both ema20 and ema50. The 4361-4381 shelf is the immediate cap, with the week high at 4381.15 unbroken and the prior high at 4402.51 the next reference above.
Support: 4,335.00, 4,305.13, 4,275.00
Resistance: 4,381.15, 4,402.51
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the ema20 near 4335 would invalidate the recovery read and put the higher-low sequence in question
Failure to hold 4305.13 swing low confirms a lower low within this week's structure; below that the 4275 break level reopens the 4235 area
Acceptance above the 4381.15 week high would extend the impulse toward the 4402.51 prior high
Fed's Bowman (Fri 07:30 UTC) and US Industrial Production (Fri 13:15 UTC) fall inside the next bars and could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's low, breakout above the week's capping shelf.
Gold collapsed 130 dollars in two bars into Wednesday's NY session on the hawkish FOMC dot shift, basing twice around 4235-4257 before a steady higher-low sequence rebuilt through Thursday's London and NY hours as yields and crude cooled. Price has now cleared the 100d sma near 4327 that capped every attempt earlier in the week and tagged 4381.15 as the day high, with RSI(14) near 68 and price holding well above EMA(20). The 4361-4371 shelf that rejected Wednesday's rally has been absorbed rather than sold so far this session.
Support: 4,352.26, 4,327.00, 4,275.00
Resistance: 4,381.15, 4,402.51
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 4327 100d sma would negate the breakout and restore the week's rejection pattern
Loss of the 4352.26 session low ends the higher-low sequence built since Wednesday
A close above the 4381.15 day high opens the path toward Monday's 4402.51 week high
Fed's Bowman (Fri 07:30 UTC) and US Industrial Production (Fri 13:15 UTC) could materially shift this read; hawkish tone re-exposes the 4275 break level
Wednesday's FOMC bar wiped out roughly 100 dollars in a single hour and extended to 4235 before demand stepped in, and price has since ground back up through the 4326.9 ema20 and reclaimed the 4368 pre-drop high, printing a 4381 day high in the NY session. RSI(14) at 59 has flattened as the last three bars stalled beneath that high, leaving the 4305 swing low as the first defended higher low of the sequence. Firm US data today — claims 196K and Philly Fed 37.8 — limited the extension, but the 4272 prior low now sits well below market.
Support: 4,326.90, 4,305.13, 4,272.20
Resistance: 4,368.10, 4,381.15
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4326.9 ema20 puts the 4305 swing low back in play and questions the higher-low sequence
An H1 close above the 4381 day high is needed for the recovery leg to extend beyond the 4368 pre-drop high
Fed's Bowman Fri 07:30 UTC and US Industrial Production Fri 13:15 UTC could materially reset this read
Failure to hold 4272 prior low would confirm renewed downside continuation from the FOMC drop
Higher highs / higher lows since 4235; price above ema20 and ema50.
Thursday's recovery has carried from the 4235 week low straight back through the 4326 ema20 area, with the London-into-NY hours printing a session high at 4381 — a complete retracement of Wednesday evening's post-FOMC hawkish-hike collapse bar. H1 structure is now a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, price holding above EMA20 (~4326) and EMA50 (~4315) with RSI(14) at 65 and no divergence yet. Friday's high at 4402.5 is the next reference above the session high; the 4305 swing low marks the base of the final leg up.
Support: 4,326.00, 4,305.10, 4,235.00
Resistance: 4,381.20, 4,402.50
What it said to watch
Rejection at the 4381 session high would leave a lower high beneath Friday's 4402 high
An hourly close back below the 4326 ema20 area would undercut the recovery leg
Failure to hold the 4305 swing low would break the higher-lows sequence off the week low
Fed's Bowman (Fri 07:30 GMT) and US Industrial Production (Fri 13:15 GMT) could materially reset this read
Higher lows since Wednesday's 4235 low, breakout above 4327.
The week's dominant move came in the FOMC hour on Wednesday, when a single H1 bar dumped from 4368 to 4257 on the hawkish hike and dot shift, extending to a 4235 week low. Since then price has carved a sequence of higher lows and the NY session today has driven a clean breakout through the 4327 100-dma, with price now extended well above EMA(20) near 4318 and pressing the 4361–4371 supply band it stalled at pre-FOMC. RSI(14) near 71 is in overbought territory for the first time this week, and the 4381 session high is the immediate cap ahead of Monday's 4402 week high.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,305.13, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,381.15
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 4361–4371 band and the 4381 session high would keep the recovery leg extending toward the 4402 week high
Rejection here and an H1 close back under the 4327 100-dma would undo the breakout and re-engage the 4305 swing low
Failure of 4305 would re-open the 4235 week low as the reference point
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC and Fed's Bowman tomorrow could materially shift this read
12:05 UTC
Post-FOMC rebound inside a down week · RSI 64 · price 4,352.26
Higher lows since the 4235 low, 100-dma reclaimed.
The week ran lower from Monday's 4334 open before Wednesday's 21:00 broker-time FOMC bar (25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% plus a hawkish dot plot) knocked gold 110 points to a 4235 low. Thursday's Asia and London sessions have printed an unbroken chain of higher lows and this hour price has pushed through the 4326-4328 100-dma shelf that capped every rally this week, now trading 4352 with EMA20 (4315) and EMA50 (4313) beneath. RSI(14) at 63.5 has cycled from below 30 at the FOMC low without yet reaching the extremes seen ahead of last Friday's high at 4402.
Support: 4,326.80, 4,305.13, 4,275.00
Resistance: 4,368.10, 4,402.30
What it said to watch
12:30 UTC US claims / Philly Fed cluster lands in the next bar and can reset this read
Rejection back under the 4326.8 100-dma would frame the move as a false break of the post-FOMC band
Loss of the 4305 higher low ends Thursday's sequence and reopens the 4275 pivot
A close above the 4368 wed high would extend the recovery beyond this week's post-FOMC range
12:05 UTC
Recovering, higher lows since the post-FOMC flush · RSI 64 · price 4,352.26
V-shaped recovery off 4235, week's lower highs still overhead.
Wednesday's 21:00 broker-time bar erased 110 dollars in an hour as the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% with a hawkish dot plot, printing the 4235 week low. Thursday's Asia and London sessions have built an unbroken sequence of higher lows off that spike, and the NY-hours push has reclaimed both the 4327 100-dma that capped every rally this week and EMA(20) at 4315, with RSI(14) back at 64 after basing near 30. Price now sits into the descending line off Monday's week high — the same lower-highs structure that has framed the whole window.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,305.13, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,366.00
What it said to watch
4366 wed high is the next cap; an H1 close above it opens the path back toward the 4402 week high
A close back under the 4327 100-dma would negate the reclaim and put the recovery back inside the post-FOMC band
Loss of the 4305 thu low breaks the higher-lows sequence off the week low
US claims / Philly Fed cluster at 12:30 UTC lands inside the next bar and can reset this read
11:58 UTC
Downtrend on the week, corrective recovery underway · RSI 60 · price 4,339.64
Higher lows since the post-FOMC low, 100-dma band reclaimed.
The dominant move of the week came in the NY session yesterday, when the FOMC's 25bp hike and hawkish dot plot dropped gold 110 dollars in a single hour to a 4235 low. Since then price has built higher lows through Asia and into London, reclaiming EMA(20) near 4310 and closing the last two bars above the 4327 100-dma band that capped every rally earlier in the week; RSI(14) has recovered to ~60 without reaching overbought. Supply from the 4361-4368 pre-fomc high area is the next structural hurdle, with 4340 the current session high.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,310.00, 4,275.00
Resistance: 4,340.35, 4,366.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close back under 4310 ema20 would negate the 100-dma reclaim
Loss of the 4275 pivot reopens the 4235 week low
US claims / Philly Fed cluster at 12:30 UTC lands inside the next bar and can reset this read
Acceptance above the 4366 pre-fomc high would break the sequence of lower highs
11:58 UTC
Recovery uptrend off the post-FOMC low · RSI 64 · price 4,339.64
Higher lows since 4235, breaking the week's cap at 4327.
The dominant move of the week was the single-bar FOMC collapse from 4368 to 4235 as the Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% with a hawkish dot plot; since that low, price has built a steady sequence of higher lows through the Asia and London sessions and now trades above both EMA(20) and EMA(50) around 4300-4305. The last bar closed at 4339.64, above the 4326-4328 100-dma cluster that capped every rally this week, with RSI(14) at 64 and no divergence against the latest high. Next overhead reference is the pre-FOMC close near 4358.95 and Wednesday's high at 4368, while the week high at 4402 remains the outer marker.
Support: 4,327.00, 4,305.10, 4,275.00
Resistance: 4,358.95, 4,368.10, 4,402.30
What it said to watch
Hourly close back under the 4327 100-dma would turn this into a false break
Loss of the 4305 higher low breaks the recovery sequence off 4235
A slip through the 4275 pivot reopens the 4235 low
12:30 UTC US claims and Philly Fed cluster can reset this read within the hour