Lower highs from 4155.49 and 4131.77; late-NY range floor lost, pressing the day low.
The NY-hours spike to the 4155.49 rebound high on US-Iran headlines has fully unwound, with oil-driven inflation fears weighing on gold despite a softer dollar. Early Asia printed a rejection at the 4131.77 session high and slipped below the 4117.47 ny range low, leaving price just above the 4111.68 day low. RSI(14) is near 38, with no oversold reading yet.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,117.47, 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.68 day low extends the lower-low sequence and opens the 4100 round number
Reclaim of the 4117.47 ny range low puts price back inside the late-NY range and neutralises the breakdown
Close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4131.77 session high breaks the lower-high sequence
US-Iran and Hormuz headlines driving oil remain the main swing factor in thin Asia trading
23:32 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs off NY spike · RSI 38 · price 4,115.93
Lower highs from 4155.49, broke below late-NY range floor, early Asia probing day low.
The NY spike to 4155.49 was rejected and fully unwound, and the early Asia session put in a lower high at 4131.77 before slipping under the 4117.47 NY low that capped the late-NY range. Price now sits just above the 4114.76 Asian low and the 4111.68 day low, with gold heavy despite softer yields and USD as global rate-hike headwinds weigh. RSI(14) near 38 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,114.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,117.47, 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.68 day low would extend the lower-low sequence
Recovery back above the 4117.47 NY low puts price back inside the late-NY range and undercuts the range break
Lower highs line from 4155.49 through 4131.77 caps rebounds; a break above the 4131.77 Asian high invalidates the sequence
US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC and PMIs Fri 13:45 UTC are the next scheduled catalysts for gold
23:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, lower highs off the NY spike · RSI 40 · price 4,118.27
NY spike above the Asian range high failed; lower highs pressing the swing low.
Early Asia session after the daily reopen. The NY spike to the 4155.49 ny high briefly cleared the 4147 Asian range high, then fully faded as global-tightening headwinds capped the oil-driven bounce, leaving lower highs into the 4131.77 reopen high. Price is about 85% through the ny spike retrace and pressing the 4117.47 swing low, with RSI(14) near 40 and the 4111.68 day low below.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4117.47 swing low exposes the 4111.68 day low, the London base and the digest's $4,111 reference
Failure to hold the 4111.68 day low extends the lower-low sequence beyond the full ny spike retrace
Recovery above the 4131.77 reopen high breaks the lower highs line from the 4155.49 ny high
US-Iran / oil headlines during thin Asia hours could materially shift this read ahead of Thu 12:30 UTC jobless claims
23:03 UTC
Intraday down-drift after failed NY spike · RSI 44 · price 4,120.17
Lower highs inside 4111–4155 day range.
The NY rally from 4112 to the 4155.49 NY high has almost fully unwound. The ny rally fib shows price near the 78.6% retracement, and the early Asia session high at 4131.77 has already been rejected back to 4120. Gold failing to hold gains despite softer yields and USD leaves the 4117.47 NY low and 4111.68 day low as the nearby floor, with lower highs capping above.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4117.47 ny low exposes the 4111.68 day low
M15 close above the 4131.77 asia high breaks the lower-highs sequence
No USD data in the next 8h; US-Iran and oil headlines are the main swing risk this session
22:47 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike, mildly heavy · RSI 45 · price 4,122.24
Compressed 4117–4127 range below the faded NY spike high.
The NY spike to 4155.49 (ny spike hi) cleared the prior Asian high but faded fully to the 4117.47 swing low. Gold has stayed heavy despite softer yields and USD. Early Asia saw a poke to 4131.77 (asia high) rejected back into the 4117–4127 range, with price sitting just below the range top and still shy of the 4111.68 day low; the move barely registers on the ny fade fib.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,131.77, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4131.77 asia high breaks the range read and brings the ny fade fib 38.2% near 4132 into play
Failure to hold the 4117.47 swing low exposes the 4111.68 day low
Repeated rejection at the 4127 range top keeps the compression intact through Asia
US-Iran / oil headlines remain the main intraday swing factor; Thu jobless claims (12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled US risk
Recovery off 4117 base inside 4111.68–4155.49 day range.
The NY spike after soft US housing data reached 4155.49, briefly reclaiming 4150 before rejection, and faded to a 4117.47 NY low despite softer yields and USD. The Asia open has lifted price off that base to a 4131.77 session high, near the 38.2% retrace of the NY fade, with the Asia open low at 4125.40 below.
Support: 4,125.40, 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,131.77, 4,136.48, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4131.77 session high and the 50% fib at 4136.48 extends the Asia bounce toward the 4150 area and the 4155.49 NY high
Slip back below the 4125.40 open low returns price to the 4117–4119 base
Loss of the 4117.47 NY low reopens the 4111.68 day low
US-Iran and oil headlines can move price in thin Asia hours ahead of Thu jobless claims
22:17 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike, slight upward drift · RSI 54 · price 4,127.02
Tight 4117–4128 range under a faded NY spike high.
Gold made a NY-hours spike to the 4155.49 session high on the softer-USD housing data. It then faded fully, a false break above the Asian high that fits the digest's weak dip-buying read, and has ranged between the 4117.5 NY low and 4128 into the new Asia session. Price is pressing the range top with RSI(14) near 54. The London low at 4111.68 remains the day low.
Support: 4,117.50, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,128.00, 4,136.50, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4128 range top opens the 50% fib of the NY fade at 4136.5
Failure to hold the 4117.5 NY low exposes the 4111.7 day low
Rejection at the range top keeps the range read intact; a reclaim of the 4155.5 session high would negate the false-break read
US-Iran / oil headlines can move gold outside the range before Thu jobless claims at 12:30 UTC
22:03 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike · RSI 52 · price 4,125.27
Tight 4117–4127 range below the faded session high.
Late NY hours, gold is boxed between the 4117.5 range low and the 4127 range top. The 14:15 UTC spike above the asian high to a 4155.5 session high fully faded, leaving a false break, while the London day low at 4111.7 held. The fade fits the digest's weak dip-buying theme despite softer yields and USD. Price is hugging both EMAs with RSI(14) flat near 52.
Support: 4,117.50, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,147.20, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127 range top opens the 38.2% retrace of the NY fade fib near 4132, with the asian high at 4147.2 above
Break of the 4117.5 range low exposes the 4111.7 day low; losing that extends the breakdown below the old range
Rejection again near the 4155.5 session high would confirm supply capping NY rallies
US-Iran headlines moving oil and yields are the main intraday shock risk; Thu claims at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled event
21:47 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike · RSI 52 · price 4,125.27
Tight 4117–4127 range under a rejected session high.
Gold spiked through the Asian high during NY hours to a 4155.49 day high. The move was fully reversed in a NY fade to 4117.47, consistent with the digest's read of weak follow-through despite softer USD and yields. Price has since compressed in a 4117–4127 range into the late NY session, holding just above EMA20 and pinned near EMA50.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127 range top opens the 4132–4136 zone (38.2–50% of the NY fade)
Failure to hold the 4117 swing low exposes the 4111.68 day low, tested three times today
Asian high at 4147 and day high at 4155 mark where the NY spike was rejected
US-Iran and oil headlines remain the main intraday swing factor for yields and gold
21:32 UTC
Sideways, momentum neutral after failed NY spike · RSI 51 · price 4,125.27
Tight 4117–4127 range in late NY, below the 4155 spike high.
The NY spike to the 4155.49 ny high around the housing data was fully rejected, and gold slid back to a 4117.47 range low by 17:00 UTC. Price has since compressed between 4117.47 and the 4126.95 range top into the end of NY, with RSI(14) flat near 51. The last bar is pressing the range top, while the London session low at 4111.68 still marks the floor.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,132.00, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4126.95 range top opens the fib 38.2 at 4132.0 of the NY spike fade
Failure to hold the 4117.47 range low exposes the 4111.68 session low
Reclaim of the 4155.49 ny high would invalidate the failed-spike read
Asia session open after the daily break; thin liquidity can distort the range edges
US-Iran deal headlines via oil and yields could materially shift this read
21:17 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike · RSI 51 · price 4,125.27
Tight late-NY range 4117–4127 below lower highs.
Gold held the 4111.68 session low three times during London and early NY. The oil-driven NY spike to 4155.49 cleared the Asian high, then faded hard into a 4117–4127 range, now near the 78.6% retrace of that move. Price is pressing the range top into the daily rollover, with a lower high at 4140.58 capping above.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,140.58, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4126.95 range top opens the 61.8% retrace near 4128 and the 4140.58 lower high
Failure to hold 4117.47 range low exposes the 4111.68 session low
Recovery through 4155.49 spike high would negate the false-break read
Daily rollover liquidity is thin; Thu Jobless Claims and Fri PMIs are the next scheduled USD risk
21:06 UTC
Sideways after failed NY spike, momentum flat · RSI 52 · price 4,125.27
London undercut the Asian low to a session low at 4111.68. NY then spiked through the 4147 Asian high to a 4155.49 NY high after the soft housing data, but the move was rejected and fully faded despite a softer USD. Since 17:00 UTC price has compressed between the 4117 range low and 4127 range top, which lines up with the 23.6% fib, and is now pressing the 50-EMA from below with RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 4141, with the 4147 asian high above
Break of the 4117 range low exposes the 4111.68 session low, which also marks the digest's $4,111 intraday low
A failure back under 4155 ny high keeps the spike classed as a false break of the Asian range
US-Iran deal headlines and oil swings during the Asia session can break the compression; Thu jobless claims is the next scheduled US risk
20:47 UTC
Flat after failed NY spike · RSI 45 · price 4,122.47
Tight late-NY range below a fully retraced spike.
The NY spike high at 4155.49 on US-Iran deal headlines was a false break above the Asian high at 4147.21 and fully retraced. Price is now boxed between a 4117.47 range low and a 4126.95 range high into the NY close, with London's 4111.68 day low intact below. RSI(14) sits near 45 and EMA20/50 are overhead.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4117.47 range low exposes the 4111.68 day low; a break there marks a lower low on the session
Close above the 4126.95 range high reopens the 38.2–50% NY spike fib at 4132–4136
US-Iran / oil headlines during the Asia session can override the range read, as the NY spike showed
20:31 UTC
Post-spike fade, flat in late NY · RSI 46 · price 4,121.96
4117–4127 range after failed breakout.
Gold spiked from the 4111.68 day low through the Asian high to a 4155.49 spike high early in the NY session on the US-Iran proposal headline. The move was fully rejected, and price now sits near the 78.6% retracement at 4121. Late NY has compressed into a 4117–4127 range with RSI(14) neutral near 46 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
Break below the 4117.47 late ny low exposes the 4111.68 day low; failure there marks a range breakdown
M15 close above the 4126.95 range top and the 61.8% retracement near 4128 eases the fade read
Asia session reopen in ~1.5h brings thin liquidity; US-Iran or Hormuz headlines could reprice oil and yields quickly
False break above Asian high reversed; tight late-NY range 4117–4127.
London broke below the 4115.8–4147.2 Asian range to the 4111.7 session low. The US-Iran proposal report then drove a NY spike high at 4155.5 above the Asian high, and the move was fully rejected. Late NY is compressing in a 4117–4127 range about 73% back into the headline spike, with price hugging EMA20 and RSI(14) near 50.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127 range top reopens the 4134–4147 area toward the Asian high
Failure to hold the 4117.5 range low exposes the 4111.7 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fresh US-Iran / Hormuz headlines or a WTI swing could break the range quickly, as the 4155.5 spike high showed
Meta earnings Wed may move yields and USD and shift this read
20:03 UTC
Down from NY spike high, flattening · RSI 41 · price 4,120.21
Lower highs since 4155 rejection, tight 4117–4127 band late NY.
The NY spike to the 4155.49 spike high on US-Iran diplomacy headlines was fully unwound, with price stepping down through lower highs into a 4117–4127 band in late NY. Price sits just above the 4117.47 ny low and the 4111.68 day low set during London, RSI(14) near 41 and ATR compressing.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,136.48, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4117.47 ny low exposes the 4111.68 day low, tested three times today
Close above the 4126.95 range top reopens the 50% fib of the spike move at 4136.48
US-Iran deal or blockade headlines, plus oil and yield moves, could materially shift this read in Asia session
19:47 UTC
Range after failed NY spike, drifting lower · RSI 43 · price 4,121.16
Compression 4117–4128 below lower high, inside Asian range.
The NY spike high at 4155.49 followed US-Iran deal headlines and soft housing data. It cleared the Asian high at 4147 but fully reversed, giving back nearly 80% of the 4111–4155 leg. Late NY is now compressing between the 4117 NY low and a 4128 lower high, with RSI(14) near 43 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,117.47
Resistance: 4,127.98, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
Break of the 4117 NY low exposes the 4111 day low set during London
Close above the 4128 lower high ends the compression; the Asian high at 4147 sits above
US-Iran deal headlines and oil remain the swing factor; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
19:32 UTC
Heavy after failed spike, compressing · RSI 41 · price 4,122.05
Late NY tight range 4117–4127 after full retrace of session high.
The NY spike on US-Iran diplomacy reports cleared the Asian high to a 4155.49 session high, but sellers absorbed it and the move fully retraced to a 4117.47 swing low. Late NY is now compressing between that low and a 4126.95 range top, with RSI(14) near 41, price under both EMAs and the 4111.68 day low below.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4126.95 range top opens a retest of the fade toward 4134–4140
Failure to hold the 4117.47 swing low exposes the 4111.68 day low set in London
Reclaim of the 4155.49 session high would negate the false break read
US-Iran / oil headlines and 10y yield swings can break the late-NY range quickly; Jobless Claims due Thu 12:30 UTC
19:17 UTC
Two-way, fading back to the lows after a failed spike · RSI 40 · price 4,121.45
Post-spike range 4117–4127 in late NY, inside the Asian range.
US-Iran diplomacy headlines sent gold to a 4155.49 spike high above the Asian range top early in NY. The move was rejected and fully retraced, leaving a false break; price has since held a tight 4117–4127 band after London close, with the ny low at 4117.47 and the London session low at 4111.68 below.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the ny low at 4117.47 puts the 4111.68 session low back in play.
A close above the 4127 range cap reopens 4134, the last lower high before the slide.
Oil and US-Iran headlines remain the swing factor; a confirmed deal or blockade escalation could break the range during Asia hours.
Reclaiming the 4155.49 spike high would negate the false-break read.
NY spike rejected; tight late-NY range above day low.
The NY spike to the 4155.49 spike high on US-Iran diplomacy headlines, with oil and yields lower, cleared the 4147 Asian high but fully reversed. That leaves a false break above the London double-test of the 4111.68 day low. Late in the NY session, price is compressing between the 4117.47 NY low and a 4127 range top, which sits near the 61.8% retracement, with RSI(14) near 41 and price pinned to flat EMAs.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.00, 4,134.50, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127 range top and 61.8% fib puts the prior shelf at 4134.50 back in play
Failure to hold the 4117.47 NY low exposes the 4111.68 day low
Only a recovery through the 4155.49 spike high would reverse the false-break read
US-Iran / oil headlines remain the swing factor via yields; Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk
18:47 UTC
Intraday range, fading off NY spike · RSI 37 · price 4,122.45
Lower highs since 4155 spike high, compressing 4117-4127 in late NY.
The NY push on US-Iran diplomacy headlines and soft housing data briefly cleared the 4147.21 asian high. It was rejected at the 4155.49 spike high and has since retraced about 75% of the move off the 4111.68 day low. Late NY trade is compressing between the 4117.47 range low and 4126.95 range top, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,126.95, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4117.47 range low exposes the 4111.68 day low
Reclaim of the 4126.95 range top reopens the 4147.21 asian high
Failure of the 78.6% spike fib near 4121 would mark a near-full retracement of the NY rally
US-Iran and oil headlines remain the swing factor; no US data in the next 8h, jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC
Lower highs off 4155.49 spike, rising lows from 4111.68 day low.
The NY-session spike on US-Iran diplomacy headlines made a false break above the Asian high at 4147.21 to a 4155.49 spike high. A rejection there and a run of lower highs, including 4140.58, have retraced most of the leg from the 4111.68 day low. Late NY, price is coiling at 4120–4127 between the 61.8% fib and the ny low at 4117.47, just under flat EMA20/50, with RSI(14) neutral near 50 and rising lows from 4112.69 holding underneath.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,128.42, 4,140.58, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 61.8% fib at 4128.42 reopens the 4140.58 lower high, with the 4155.49 spike high above that
Break of the 4117.47 ny low and the rising lows line exposes the 4115.76 asian low and the 4111.68 day low
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; US-Iran and oil headlines moving yields are the main risk to this range read
18:17 UTC
Range, failed NY breakout · RSI 47 · price 4,125.43
Spike above Asian high rejected, lower highs since, holding above day low.
US-Iran diplomacy headlines drove a NY spike through the 4147.21 Asian high to a 4155.49 spike high, but supply capped it within two bars. Price has since retraced about 68% of the NY rally to 4125, printing lower highs into late NY. It now sits just under flat EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 47, holding above the 4117.47 swing low and the 4111.68 day low.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.98, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
Close above the 4127.98 lower high breaks the post-spike sequence; the 4147.21 asian high sits overhead
Failure at the 4117.47 swing low and 4115.76 asian low exposes the 4111.68 day low, where London twice held
US-Iran or oil headlines can re-run the 4155.49 spike high; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
18:04 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a failed NY spike · RSI 43 · price 4,125.50
Lower highs from 4155.5; tight 4117–4126 base above the London day low.
The NY-open spike cleared the Asian high at 4147.2 and tagged a 4155.5 session high, then was fully rejected. Price faded back to a 4117.5 NY low as the oil and yield channel outweighed the weak US housing data. Late NY is basing at 4117–4126, below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 43, and the London day low at 4111.7 has held on three tests.
Support: 4,117.50, 4,111.70, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.00, 4,147.20, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
Close below the 4111.7 day low breaks the triple-tested London floor and exposes 4100 psych
Failure to hold the 4117.5 NY low puts the day low back in play
Recapture of the 4135 ny shelf (38.2% of the NY fade fib) reopens the 4147.2 asian high
US-Iran deal headlines and oil moves are live risk into the Asia session; no scheduled US data in the next 8h
Both sides of Asian range broken and rejected; price back inside, lower highs since spike.
London undercut the Asian low to a 4111.68 london low. NY's spike on the Pending Home Sales miss ran above the Asian high to a 4155.49 spike high, then faded fully, as the digest notes weak housing data failed to hold a bid. Price is now basing at 4117–4124 above the ny low, about 75% into the fib retracement of the london low to spike high move. It sits below both EMAs with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 4,117.50, 4,111.70, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,128.40, 4,140.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.7 london low exposes the 4100 psych level, flagged in the digest as the spec-long liquidation line
Failure to hold the 4117.5 ny low extends the lower-high sequence from the spike
Recovery through the fib 61.8 at 4128.4 and the 4140.6 lower high would neutralise the spike-fade read
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; US-Iran and oil headlines remain an unscheduled driver
17:32 UTC
Intraday range, heavy after failed NY spike · RSI 45 · price 4,123.86
False break above Asian high fully retraced; lower highs since 4155.
Weak US pending home sales triggered a NY spike through the asian high at 4147 to a 4155.49 spike high. The move then fully retraced, putting price back below the 61.8% level of the day-low-to-spike move and under both EMAs. Late NY session is holding just above the 4117 swing low, with the 4111.7 day low beneath and RSI(14) neutral near 45.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,135.00, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4135 ny shelf would neutralise the post-spike lower-high sequence
Break of the 4111.7 day low exposes the 4100 psych level, which the digest flags for spec long-liquidation risk
No scheduled USD data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main source of intraday swings
17:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend after failed NY spike · RSI 43 · price 4,120.80
Lower highs from 4155.49 session high, holding above 4111.68 day low.
NY spiked through the Asian high at 4147.21 to a 4155.49 session high after the Pending Home Sales miss. The move then fully reversed as the oil-and-yield channel reasserted, printing a clean chain of lower highs down to the 4117.47 NY low. Price is now pinned between that low and the 4111.68 day low set in London, with RSI(14) near 43 and no extreme in play.
Support: 4,117.47, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.98, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.98 lower high breaks the NY lower highs trendline; the 38.2% of the NY reversal fib sits near 4132
Failure to hold the 4117.47 NY low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4111.68 day low
Break of the 4111.68 day low exposes the 4100 psych level, where the digest flags spec-long liquidation risk
Only a reclaim of the 4147.21 asian high and the 4155.49 session high negates the false break read
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; oil and yield headlines remain the swing factor for this read
17:04 UTC
Downtrend from NY spike high, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,121.11
Failed NY breakout above Asian high, full fade back into London range.
NY hours saw a spike to 4155.49, a false break of the Asian high at 4147.21, as weak US housing data and a softer USD briefly lifted gold. Supply capped it, and the move has fully faded on lower highs, with price at 4121, near the 78.6% retrace of the 4111.68–4155.49 leg and just above the Asian low. Late NY session, after London close, the oil and yield channel still dominates.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.98, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.68 day low extends the lower-low sequence toward 4100 psych
Close back above the 4127.98 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline from the spike high
Recapture of the 4147.21 Asian high would negate the false-break read
No US data in the next 8h; Thu jobless claims and Fri PMIs are the next scheduled risk
Lower highs since NY spike top; holding above London base.
Early in the NY session, after the weak US housing data, gold ran from the 4111.7 session low through the 4147.2 Asian high to a 4155.5 session high. The move was rejected and has since fully faded. Late in NY, price is pressing the fib 78.6 at 4121.3 with a run of lower highs, RSI(14) neutral near 46, while the oil and yield channel keeps rallies capped.
Support: 4,121.30, 4,115.80, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,128.40, 4,147.20, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
Close back above the fib 61.8 at 4128.4 eases the lower-high sequence
Failure at 4121.3 exposes the asian low 4115.8, then the 4111.7 session low, which London defended three times
Break of 4111.7 puts the $4,100 range floor in play, with liquidation risk flagged given heavy spec longs
Reclaim of the 4147.2 asian high would negate the false-break read toward the 4155.5 session high
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after a failed NY spike · RSI 46 · price 4,124.26
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4155.49 NY high; testing the 78.6% fib.
London broke below the 4115.76–4147.21 Asian range and set the 4111.68 day low. In NY, the weak housing prints sparked a spike above the Asian high to 4155.49 that was fully unwound, consistent with the digest's read that oil and yields are dominating. Price is now carving lower highs and sits on the 4121.32 swing low near the 78.6% fib, with RSI(14) neutral around 46.
Support: 4,121.32, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.74, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4121.32 swing low exposes the 4111.68 day low
An M15 close above the 4127.74 lower high breaks the post-spike lower-high sequence and flags the 61.8% fib near 4128
A move toward psych 4100 brings the digest's spec-long liquidation risk into play
The asian high at 4147.21 and the ny spike hi at 4155.49 cap the session; reclaiming them would undo the false break read
Lower highs since NY spike; holding above London day low.
Gold spiked to 4155.49 in the NY session after the weak US housing prints, clearing the Asian high at 4146.79. It failed there and has since given back roughly 62% of the rally from the 4111.68 London day low. Price sits near 4127 under both EMAs, with RSI(14) neutral around 48 and a lower-high sequence from the spike high in place.
Support: 4,120.84, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,140.58, 4,146.79, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4120.84 NY swing low exposes the 4111.68 day low and the $4,100 area flagged in the macro read
Reclaim of the 4140.58 lower high breaks the post-spike lower-high sequence and puts the 4146.79 Asian high back in play
Hold of the 61.8% retracement of the NY spike fib near 4128 vs a slide toward the 4120s
No US data due in the next 8h; oil or US-Iran headlines are the main intraday risk to this read
Lower highs off 4155.49 spike, holding above 4130.
London broke the Asian low (4115.76) to a day low at 4111.68. NY then spiked through the Asian high to 4155.49 after the weak US housing prints, but the move faded straight back inside the range. Price is now sitting on EMA20 near 4130, between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the 4111.68–4155.49 leg, with a lower high at 4140.58 capping after London close.
Support: 4,130.14, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,140.58, 4,147.21, 4,155.49
What it said to watch
Loss of the fade low at 4130.14 and the 61.8% fib near 4128 puts the day low at 4111.68 back in play
Break below the 4111.68 day low exposes the $4,100 psych level flagged in the digest
M15 close above the 4140.58 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the asian high at 4147.21, then the spike high
Oil and US 10y moves remain the main driver; there is no scheduled US data in the next 8h
False break above Asian high; back inside 4112–4147 band.
London broke the Asian low to a 4111.7 session low, then the NY session ripped through the 4147.2 Asian high to a 4155.5 spike high after weak US housing data. The move faded inside four bars as the oil and yield channel reasserted, and price is now pinned near the 50% of the NY spike fib around 4134, just above the 4130.7 pullback low.
Support: 4,130.70, 4,111.70, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,147.20, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4130.7 pullback low (61.8% of the NY spike fib sits at ~4129.5) puts the 4111.7 session low back in play
Recapture and hold above the 4147.2 Asian high would negate the false break read; 4155.5 spike high caps above
Loss of the 4100 round number is the digest's flagged liquidation risk given ~208K net spec longs
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; oil and US-Iran headlines are the main intraday swing risk
False break above Asian high, now holding near 50% of London low–NY high leg.
After the weak US housing data, the NY session spiked from the London low at 4111.70 through the Asian high at 4147.20 to a 4155.50 NY high. The move was fully rejected, consistent with oil and yields still driving gold. Price now sits on the 50% fib of that leg near 4133.60, with a pullback low at 4132.70 and a lower high at 4140.60 framing the late London-NY transition, and RSI(14) neutral at 53.
Support: 4,132.70, 4,128.40, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,140.60, 4,147.20, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4132.70 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4128.40
Failure to hold the 4111.70 london low would break the intraday range and put the 4,100 area in play
Close above the 4140.60 lower high reopens the 4147.20 asian high; the 4155.50 ny high caps the session
No scheduled US data in the next 8h; oil and yield moves remain the swing factor
15:03 UTC
Range, NY spike failed above Asian high · RSI 59 · price 4,142.70
Rising lows from the 4111.7 London low; false break above 4147 Asian high, back inside the range.
London set the day low at 4111.7 before NY pushed through the Asian high (4147.2) and the prior high (4150.4) to a 4155.5 session high, with USD softness behind the move after the housing misses. The spike was rejected within two bars, and the pullback swing low at 4136.9 sits at the 38.2% fib, holding the rising lows intact while price is back inside the Asian range.
Support: 4,136.90, 4,131.30, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,147.20, 4,150.40, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4147.2 asian high reopens the 4150.4 prior high and the 4155.5 session high
Loss of the 4136.9 swing low exposes the 4131.3 rally base near the 50–61.8% fib
Break of the rising lows trendline puts the 4111.7 day low back in play
Oil above $99 and 10y yields near 5.14% could cap rallies quickly; Thursday claims are the next scheduled US data
14:47 UTC
Choppy downside drift broken by NY spike, now fading · RSI 61 · price 4,145.39
Triple bottom at 4112, breakout rejected at 4155.5, back inside Asian range.
London set the session low at 4111.7 and two early-NY retests held, forming a triple bottom. A $22 breakout bar followed the weak Pending Home Sales print and cleared the 4147.2 Asian high, but rejection at the 4155.5 session high, the prior-day high area, has price back inside the Asian range near 4145, with the 4131 breakout base below.
Support: 4,131.30, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,147.20, 4,155.50
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4147.2 Asian high reopens the 4155.5 session high; failure there keeps the rejection read intact
Loss of the 4131 breakout base, near the 50% fib at ~4133.6, puts the 4111.7 session low back in view
Renewed rise in US 10y yields or WTI above $99 has been the dominant drag and could unwind the NY spike
Triple bottom near 4112 resolved by NY breakout above the Asian high.
Gold held a triple bottom at the 4111.7 session low through London and early NY, despite oil and yield pressure in the digest. A $20 bar at 14:15 UTC lifted price off the 4131.3 surge base, through the 4147.2 Asian high and back above the $4,150 former range floor. The rally is now pressing the 4155.2 prior high with RSI(14) near 70.
Support: 4,147.20, 4,131.30, 4,111.70
Resistance: 4,155.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4155.2 prior high extends the rally beyond the window's range
Slip back below the 4147.2 asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4131.3 surge base and the rising lows trendline negates the reversal
WTI and Iran/Hormuz headlines can quickly reverse the $4,150 reclaim
14:17 UTC
Intraday rebound inside a heavy session · RSI 61 · price 4,132.97
London range 4111.7–4127.2 broken higher at NY open; first higher low at 4120.8.
Buyers defended the 4111.7–4113.7 day low three times through London and the 12:30 UTC Housing Starts miss. NY then cleared the 4127.2 range top, printing a higher low at 4120.8 and a ny high at 4134.3, right at the 61.8% retrace of the asian high-to-day low drop. Oil and yield pressure still frames the move as a bounce within a heavy tape.
Support: 4,127.20, 4,120.84, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,134.30, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
Close above the 4136.7 london high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 4147.2 asian high
Close back below the 4127.2 range top turns the NY breakout into a false break
Loss of the 4120.8 higher low puts the 4111.7 day low back in play
Iran/WTI headlines can override the intraday structure; oil-driven yield moves have led gold all session
Lower highs from 4146.8 Asian high; 4111.7–4134.3 range since London.
London broke the asian low at 4115.8 but stalled at the 4111.7 london low, and repeated NY tests of 4112–4113 held. The 12:30 UTC Housing Starts miss sparked a bounce to a 4134.3 ny high, rejected near the 61.8% of the Asia-London drop, with oil-driven yield pressure keeping gold below the 4150 former range floor.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,134.30, 4,146.79
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4134.3 ny high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4146.8 asian high
Failure to hold the 4111.7 london low exposes the 4100 psych level
Pending Home Sales 14:00 UTC is low impact; the oil and yield tone remains the main driver of this read
Lower highs from the Asia high; London range 4112–4127 broken higher in NY.
After rejecting the 4147 Asia high, gold carved a London range of 4112–4127, with a double bottom at the 4112 session low. Around the NY open, price closed above the 4127 range top and is now pressing the 4131 NY high, at the 50% fib of the Asia-high-to-session-low drop. A softer USD is cushioning a market still weighed by oil and yields.
Support: 4,127.17, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,131.35, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 4127 range top turns the NY breakout into a false break
Close above the 4136.68 london high opens the 4147 asia high
Loss of the 4111.68 session low exposes the 4100 psych handle and the range-breakdown read
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; WTI near $99 and US 10y are the bigger swing factors
13:32 UTC
Down, lower highs from Asian high · RSI 50 · price 4,119.25
Range 4111.68–4127.17 since London, below descending trendline.
London broke the Asian low at 4115.76 and set a 4111.68 session low. Since then gold has held a 4111.68–4127.17 range, and the NY open swings were rejected twice at the range top, just above the 38.2% fib retrace of the asian high-to-low move. Lower highs from the 4147.21 asian high define the descending trendline, while oil above $99 and firm yields keep gold heavy near the $4,100 round number.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 range top and the descending trendline opens the path to the 4136.68 london high
Failure to hold the 4111.68 session low exposes the 4100 round number, where a sustained break would confirm the range breakdown
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact; WTI and US 10y swings are the larger intraday drivers
Lower highs since Asian high; 4111.68–4127.17 range since mid-London.
Lower highs from the 4147.21 Asian high through the 4136.68 London high keep gold in an intraday downtrend. Since mid-London, price has compressed in a 4111.68–4127.17 range, with the range top rejected four times, including the two-way swing around the 12:30 UTC housing data. Oil-driven yield pressure keeps price heavy near the session low as the NY session opens, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.68 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number
M15 close above the 4127.17 range top breaks the lower-high trendline and exposes the 4136.68 london high
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is low impact. A shift in WTI or 10y yields during NY hours could move price out of the range
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 45 · price 4,117.74
Lower highs into a 4111.7–4127.2 range below the Asian range.
London broke below the Asian range low at 4115.76 to a session low of 4111.68, and gold has since held a 4111.7–4127.2 range. The lower-highs line from the Asian high still caps price. The 12:30 UTC Housing Starts miss whipsawed price across the range without a close outside it, with RSI(14) near 45 and price below both EMAs as higher yields keep gold heavy.
Support: 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.7 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4,100 round number
Close above the 4127.2 range top and the lower-highs line negates the compression read and brings the 4136.7 london high into view
Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC is second-tier but could add NY session volatility
A further leg up in 10y yields or oil could break the range lower
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 49 · price 4,122.03
Lower highs from 4147; NY open boxed 4112–4127.
Gold extended Monday's oil-and-yields slide, with London breaking the 4115.76 Asian low to a 4111.68 session low and printing lower highs under the descending trendline from the 4147.21 Asian high. The NY open whipsawed inside a 4112–4127 range, with the 4127.17 range top rejecting four times and RSI(14) flat near 49.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 range top and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 4136.68 london high, then the 38.2–50% fib zone
Failure to hold the 4111.68 session low confirms a fresh lower low with the 4100 round number next
Holding back above the 4115.76 asian low keeps the NY range intact
US Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC could break the NY range
Lower highs since Asia; tight range 4111.7–4127.2 in development.
London broke the asian low at 4115.8 and set a day low at 4111.7. Since then price has compressed beneath a lower high at 4127.2, near the 38.2% retrace of the fib from the Asian high, and was rejected there going into NY. Oil-driven yield pressure keeps gold heavy, with price under both EMAs and RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111.7 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number
M15 close above the 4127.2 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence and opens the 4136.7 swing high
Housing Starts/Permits at the NY open and Pending Home Sales 90 minutes later could break the range in either direction
Lower highs below Asian range, retesting session low.
Gold has set lower highs at the Asian high 4147.21, the London open high 4136.68 and 4127.14, and London broke the Asian low near 4115.76 to print a session low at 4111.68. The bounce stalled near the 38.2-50% fib of the 4147–4111 leg and met rejection at the 4127 lower high, with price back near the session low as oil-driven yields keep pressure on the metal.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.14, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC, in the first hour of NY, could materially shift this read
A clean break below the 4111.68 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number
An M15 close above the 4127.14 lower high and the falling resistance line invalidates the lower-high sequence
Recovery through the london open high at 4136.68 would put the asian high at 4147.21 back in play
Lower highs intact from Asian high; Asian low swept in London then reclaimed.
Gold extended its oil- and yield-led slide. London swept the asian low at 4115.76 and printed a session low at 4111.68 before buyers stepped in. The bounce stalled at 4127.14, the fib 61.8 of the london high-to-low drop, leaving the lower-high chain from the 4147.21 asian high intact, with RSI(14) neutral near 51.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.14, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.14 fib 61.8 and the 4136.68 london high breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the rising lows line and the 4111.68 session low confirms a lower-low, exposing the 4100 round number
Slip back under the 4115.76 asian low turns the London sweep into continuation
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC, in the first hour of NY, could shift this read via yields
Lower highs; Asian low swept in London, price back inside Asian range.
Gold extended its break of the $4,150 floor on firmer yields. London swept the asian low at 4115.76 to a 4111.68 session low, and the rebound high at 4124.81 stalled just under the 38.2% retracement of the Asian high–session low leg. The 4136.68 london high and the 4127.17 lower high keep the intraday sequence pointing down. Late London, price is pinned below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,124.81, 4,127.17, 4,136.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4136.68 london high
Failure to hold the 4111.68 session low turns the asian low sweep into a fresh lower low
NY open and US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC; gold is tracking the 10y yield near 5.14% closely
Lower highs from 4147, Asian low swept then reclaimed.
London extended the Asian slide and swept the 4115.76 asian low to a 4111.68 session low before rebounding to 4124, forming a higher low at 4117.6. Price is now pressing the 38.2% fib near 4125 and the 4127.17 lower high, with the yield-driven selling since the 4150 floor gave way still framing the tape. RSI(14) is back to a neutral 51.
Support: 4,117.60, 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens 4136.68 london high, then 4147.21 asian high
Failure to hold the 4117.6 higher low re-exposes the 4115.76 asian low and 4111.68 session low
ADP at 12:15 UTC, US housing starts and permits at 12:30 and pending home sales at 14:00 can nudge yields into the NY open
Lower highs since Asian high; London false break of Asian low.
Gold has printed lower highs from the 4146.79 Asian high as firmer yields weigh after Monday's break of the 4150 floor. London slipped below the 4115.76 Asian low to 4111.68 before recovering to 4123. Price is now pressing the descending trendline and the 38.2% fib near 4125 late in the London session, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,146.79
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 lower high breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4136.68 swing high next
A slip back below the 4115.76 asian low reopens the 4111.68 london low
Rejection at the descending trendline / 38.2% fib keeps the downtrend sequence intact
Price remains well below the 4146.79 asian high, so the bounce is so far corrective
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and housing data at 12:30 UTC into the NY open could move yields and shift this read
Lower-high chain intact; Asian low reclaimed after London dip.
London extended the lower-high sequence from the 4147.21 Asian high. It broke the 4115.76 Asian low to a 4111.68 session low, then reclaimed it, and price is now pressing the descending trendline near 4121 with RSI(14) neutral at 46. Rebounding Treasury yields and firmer oil keep gold heavy after Monday's NY-open break below 4150.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
A close back below the 4115.76 asian low turns the false break into lower-low continuation through the 4111.68 session low
Acceptance above the descending trendline and a close through the 4127.17 swing high (38.2–50% fib zone) would break the lower-high chain, with the 4136.68 london high next
The 4147.21 asian high, just under the 4150 prior range floor, is the cap on any wider rebound
US ADP 4-week avg (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) ahead of NY open could shift the read via yields
Lower-high chain from the Asian high; brief break below the Asian low reversed.
Mid-London, gold has printed lower highs from the 4147.21 Asian high through the 4136.68 London high and 4127.17 as rebounding yields and oil weigh. The push below the 4115.76 Asian low to a 4111.68 session low has not held, and price is back near 4121 at the descending lower-highs line, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68
Resistance: 4,127.17, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; the 50% retrace of the Asian high to session low decline sits near 4129.45
Renewed closes below the 4115.76 asian low and 4111.68 session low turn the false break into a fresh lower-low
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC and NY-session moves in the 10y yield could shift this read
Gold extended its Asian-session slide in London, dipping below the 4115.76 Asian low to a 4111.68 session low before reclaiming 4118, with RSI(14) near 44. Lower highs at 4147.21, the 4136.68 London high and 4127.17 define a descending trendline near 4122, consistent with rebounding US yields weighing on the metal.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,122.20, 4,127.17, 4,136.68
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4127.17 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4111.68 session low confirms a fresh lower-low, with the 4100 round number next below
Slipping back under the 4115.76 Asian low turns the sweep into an acceptance below the Asian range
US housing data at 12:30 UTC into the NY open and moves in the US 10y yield could materially shift this read
London broke below Asian range low; LH/LL sequence from 4147.
London extended the decline from the 4147.21 Asian high, capping at lower highs of 4136.68 (london high at the open) and 4127.17 before breaking the asian low at 4115.76 to a 4111.68 session low. Firmer US yields and WTI near $99 are keeping pressure on gold. RSI(14) at 34 is soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,111.68, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,115.76, 4,127.17, 4,136.68
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4115.76 asian low would mark the range break as a false break
Close above the 4127.17 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 4111.68 session low exposes the 4100 round number
Fib 50% of the decline at ~4129 sits just above the lower high, overlapping resistance
ADP 12:15 UTC and US housing data 12:30 UTC, near NY open, could shift this read via yields
09:46 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into flat base · RSI 39 · price 4,119.20
Descending highs 4147→4137→4127 over flat lows ~4115.5.
Gold is heavy as US yields rebound. The London open saw a rejection at the 4136.7 london high, below the 4147.2 asian high, and each bounce since has stalled lower. Price is now pressing a flat base at the 4115.5 session low, which only marginally undercut the Asian low and held, with RSI(14) near 39 and not stretched.
Support: 4,115.50, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.20, 4,136.70, 4,147.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.5 session low breaks the base and leaves the 4100 round number as the next reference
M15 close above the 4127.2 lower high breaks the descending trendline and puts the 4136.7 london high back in play
Asian high at 4147.2 caps the session range; reclaiming it negates the intraday downtrend
US Housing Starts/Permits 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales 14:00 UTC during NY hours, plus any 10y yield move, could shift this read
Gold extended Monday's NY slide below the 4150 range floor as US yields rebounded, printing lower highs at the 4147.2 asian high, the 4136.7 london high and the 4127.2 swing high. In London, price briefly undercut the 4115.5 asian low and recovered. The bounce was rejected near the 38.2% fib and the falling trendline, with price holding below both EMAs.
Support: 4,115.50, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,127.20, 4,136.70, 4,147.20
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4127.2 swing high and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high chain and brings the 4136.7 london high back into view
Acceptance below the 4115.5 asian low opens the 4100 round number
US Housing Starts and Building Permits at 12:30 UTC, Pending Home Sales at 14:00 UTC, and 10y yield moves could shift this read
09:04 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into Asian low · RSI 41 · price 4,120.17
Lower highs compressing onto 4116–4119 floor.
Gold extended Monday's slide from ~4175 as US yields rebounded. Mid-London, price was rejected at the 4136.68 london high and is now retesting the 4115.76 asian low, with lower highs at 4126.94 and below compressing the range against a 4116–4119 floor.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.94, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.76 asian low opens the 4100 round number
Close above the 4126.94 lower high breaks the London lower-high trendline; 4136.68 london high next, 4147.21 asian high above
US housing data at 12:30 UTC and the 10y yield near 5.14% could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 42 · price 4,122.99
Lower highs from Asian high, flat base 4118–4119 above Asian low.
Gold is extending the slide as US yields rebound. The London open was rejected at the london high of 4136.68, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian high-to-London low move. Price then printed a london low at 4118.17, just above the asian low of 4115.76. Price is now compressing under the lower-high trendline with RSI(14) near 42 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 4,118.17, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,126.94, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low 4115.76 extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the lower high 4126.94 breaks the lower-high trendline; london high 4136.68 and asian high 4147.21 sit above
Repeated holds at the 4118–4119 london low area keep the compression intact
US Housing Starts/Permits 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales 14:00 UTC could move yields and shift this read
Lower highs pressing onto a flat 4118 floor in early London.
Gold extended Monday's slide in the Asia session, printing the 4115.76 asian low, and the rebound stalled at the 4147.21 asian high. Since then, lower highs at 4136.68 (london high) and 4126.94 have pressed price onto the 4118 london low for a third test as 10y yields near 5.14% and $99 WTI weigh. RSI(14) is around 38 and not stretched.
Support: 4,118.17, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,126.94, 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.76 asian low breaks the floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4126.94 lower high, then the 4136.68 london high, breaks the lower-highs trendline and invalidates the compression read
US ADP 4-wk avg, Housing Starts and Permits, 12:15–14:00 UTC: a surprise moving 10y yields could materially shift this read
Lower highs into a 4116–4118 base tested three times since Asia.
Gold printed lower highs from the 4147.21 Asian high to the 4136.68 London high an hour into London. Each bounce has stalled on the descending lower-highs line as the 10y yield rebound to ~5.14% weighs. The 4116–4118 floor (asian low / london low) has absorbed three tests. RSI(14) sits near 37 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,118.17, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.76 asian low breaks the intraday floor and extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4136.68 london high breaks the lower-highs line and the rejection sequence
Reclaim of the 4147.21 asian high would put Monday's 4150 floor back in play
US housing data and ADP 12:15–14:00 UTC could shift yields and this read if far off forecast
08:03 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs into a flat floor · RSI 38 · price 4,125.57
Lower highs at 4147.2 and 4136.7 against repeated lows near 4116-4118.
Gold was capped at the 4147.2 asian high, then rejected at 4136.7 in the first hour of the London session. That lower high sits on the 61.8% fib of the Asian-high-to-London-low drop, and price is back near 4125 under both EMAs. Rising US yields (10y ~5.14%) and $99 WTI keep pressure on bullion, while the 4116-4118 floor (asian low and london low) has held three times.
Support: 4,118.17, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,136.68, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.76 asian low breaks the repeated floor and confirms a lower-low
Close above the 4136.7 lower high and the fib 61.8% neutralises the lower-high chain; asian high at 4147.2 is next
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Housing Starts/Permits (12:30 UTC) into the NY open could shift yields and this read
Lower-high chain within Asian range; London rejected at 4136.7.
Asia printed a 4115.8 asian low, rebounded to the 4147.2 asian high, then rolled over to a 4118.6 swing low. The first hour of London was rejected at the 4136.7 london high, which lines up with the 61.8% fib and yesterday's NY low, and price is back near 4122 with rebounding US yields still the driver. RSI(14) is near 36, so momentum is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,118.60, 4,115.80, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,136.70, 4,147.20, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 4118.6 swing low and 4115.8 asian low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 round number
M15 close above the 4136.7 london high breaks the lower-high trendline
A reclaim of the 4147.2 asian high and the 4150 range floor neutralises the intraday downtrend read
US 10y yield moves around 5.14% remain the main swing factor; ADP and housing data at 12:15–12:30 GMT are likely low impact
Lower highs from the 4147.21 Asian high; double base at 4116–4119.
Gold slid in late Asia from the 4147.2 Asian high to a 4118.6 swing low, just above the 4115.8 Asian low, as firmer yields and oil keep pressure on bullion below the old 4150 range floor. The early London bounce stalled at 4136.6, where the prev day low and the 61.8% retracement of the Asia drop meet, extending the lower-high sequence. Price sits below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 4,127.90, 4,118.60, 4,115.80
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,147.20, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Break of the 4127.9 london low exposes the 4118.6 swing low and 4115.8 Asian low, the double base under test
M15 close above the 4136.6 prev day low breaks the lower-high line and opens the 4147.2 Asian high and 4150 range floor
US 10y yield and Iran/oil headlines are the live drivers. ADP and housing data from 12:15 GMT are flagged low impact
Lower highs inside the Asian range, London opened with a rejection.
London opened with a rejection at the 4136.7 london high, the 61.8% retrace of the pre-London drop. That keeps gold mid Asian range (4115.76–4147.21) and preserves the lower-high chain from Monday's 4190 peak. Rebounding yields keep price under the former 4150 range floor; the 4118.6 intraday low held above the asian low.
Support: 4,118.61, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,136.68, 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.76 asian low confirms a lower low beneath the intraday low
Close above the 4136.7 london high and the descending trendline exposes the 4147.21 asian high
Reclaim of the 4150 range floor would break the lower-high sequence
US ADP and housing data from 12:15 GMT are likely low impact; yield moves remain the driver
Lower highs from 4190.3; double bottom at 4115.8/4118.6 inside the Asian range.
Gold enters the London open back inside the Asian range after a second test of the 4115.8–4118.6 lows held. The rebound is stalling at 4136.6, Monday's NY low and the 61.8% retracement of the Asian drop, with yield-driven selling since Monday's 12:30 UTC break below the 4150 range floor still framing structure. The double btm needs a break of the 4147.2 Asian high to complete.
Support: 4,118.61, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4147.2 Asian high completes the double bottom and brings the 4150 range floor into play
Rejection at 4136.6, the old NY low, keeps the move a retest from below inside the Asian range
Loss of the 4115.8 Asian low invalidates the double btm and resumes the lower-low sequence
US ADP and housing data at 12:15–12:30 UTC are low impact; moves in the 10y yield remain the driver
Lower-high chain from 4190; Asian range 4115.76–4147.21, mid-range bounce.
Gold extended Monday's slide as yields rebounded (10y ~5.14%, WTI above $99), keeping a lower-high chain from 4190 intact and carving a 4115.76–4147.21 Asian range. A second leg down met demand at 4118.61, just above the session low, and rebounded to 4134. Price sits near 4131, about a 45% retracement of the Asian swing, into London open with RSI(14) neutral at 51.
Support: 4,118.61, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,134.17, 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4118.61 asian low and 4115.76 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Close above the 4134.17 bounce high opens a test of the 4147.21 asian high and the lower-high line
Reclaim of 4150, the former range floor, would break the lower-high sequence
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC are likely low impact; yield moves remain the driver
06:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling at Asian lows · RSI 41 · price 4,129.77
Asian range 4115.76–4147.21, higher low at 4118.61.
Monday's slide from 4190 on firmer yields and USD carried into Asia, which has set a 4115.76–4147.21 range. A second probe of the asian low was rejected at 4118.61, a higher low, and the bounce has stalled near the 38.2% retrace of the drop from the asian high. Into the London open, RSI(14) sits near 41 with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,118.61, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,136.29, 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4118.61 higher low and 4115.76 asian low extends Monday's lower-low sequence
Recovery through the 61.8% fib at 4136.29 shifts the read toward a retest of the 4147.21 asian high
Acceptance above the asian high and the 4150 pivot would break the intraday downtrend
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and housing data (12:30 UTC) during the NY session could reset the range via yields
Lower highs from 4190; Asian bounce fully retraced to the 4115.76 low.
Late Asia session gave back the whole overnight bounce. Price slid from the 4147.21 Asian high to retest the 4115.76 Asian low ahead of London open, extending the lower-highs sequence from Monday's 4190 peak as 10y yields near 5.14% cap gold. RSI(14) near 31 is soft but not yet oversold, and the 4131.5 broken lows now sit overhead.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,131.50, 4,136.60, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4115.76 Asian low confirms a fresh lower low and exposes the 4100 round number
Recovery back above the 4131.5 broken lows and the 4136.6 Monday low would neutralise the breakdown
Close above the 4147.21 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence
London open in under an hour and the 12:15–12:30 UTC ADP/housing data could shift this read
Asian bounce capped at lower high, retesting Asia low.
The lower-high chain from Monday's 4190.31 London high is intact. The Asian bounce off the 4115.76 asia low stalled at 4147.21, the asia high and near the 38.2% fib, and has been almost fully retraced in the hour before London open. Price sits below the former monday low at 4136.6 with RSI(14) near 39, as 5%+ 10y yields and firmer oil cap gold.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
Break below the 4115.76 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 round number
Recovery above the 4136.6 monday low neutralises the Asian-session breakdown
Lower-highs line and the 4147.21 asia high define where the downtrend read fails
London open in ~1h may set the session range from the asia low
US ADP 12:15 UTC and Housing Starts/Permits 12:30 UTC could shift yields and this read
Lower high at 4147 under 4149, testing 4129 swing low.
Monday's NY-session slide, driven by oil lifting the 10y yield to 5.144%, extended to an Asian low of 4115.76. The rebound was rejected at the 4147.21 Asian high, just under last evening's 4148.70 peak, and has retraced about 50% to 4131. Late Asia ahead of London open, price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 40, sitting on the 4129 swing low.
Support: 4,129.20, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,140.00, 4,147.21
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4129.2 swing low exposes the 61.8% fib near 4127.8 and the 4115.76 asian low
Recovery above the 4140 round number and the 4147.21 asian high would void the lower-high read
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could shift this read via the 10y yield (5.144%)
Lower high at 4147.21 after V-recovery from the Asian low.
Asia ran through the monday low at 4136.6 to 4115.76, then V-recovered to the asian high at 4147.21, where it met rejection. Price has since given back about half that move and sits on the 50% fib near 4131.5 with 90 minutes to London open. Monday's oil-driven yield rise to 5.14% is still weighing on the tape.
Support: 4,131.50, 4,127.80, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 50% fib at 4131.5 opens the 61.8% fib at 4127.8, then the asian low at 4115.76
Reclaim of the monday low at 4136.6 shifts focus back to the asian high at 4147.21 and the 4150 pivot
London open in ~1.5h may set the session range away from the current Asia structure
US housing starts and building permits at 12:30 UTC and pending home sales at 14:00 UTC could jolt yields and this read
Lower highs from 4190 to 4147; Asian range 4115.76–4147.21 intact.
The NY-open drop through 4150 on Monday, as 10y yields hit 5.14% and the USD firmed, set the lower-high sequence. Asia dipped to the 4115.76 session low and rebounded, but the Asia rebound stalled under the 4147 Asian high, and the last two bars have slipped back to the 38.2% fib near 4135. RSI(14) is around 46 with price below EMA20/EMA50 heading into London open.
Support: 4,135.20, 4,129.30, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4147.21 Asian high and 4150 psych breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4129.3 Asian shelf exposes the 4115.76 session low
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range bounds
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC, plus the 10y yield versus 5.14%, could materially shift this read
V-rebound from the Asia low, now compressing 4141–4147 on flattening highs.
Gold lost the 4150 range floor during Monday NY on firmer yields and oil. Asia then swept to 4115.8, the Asia low, before a V-shaped recovery to a 4147.2 session high, with a higher low at 4141.4 and the 4132.0 swing low beneath. Late Asia is compressing just under 4150 ahead of London open, RSI(14) near 61.
Support: 4,141.40, 4,132.00, 4,115.80
Resistance: 4,147.20, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4150 range floor would reclaim the broken level; rejection there keeps it as resistance
Break of the 4141.4 higher low ends the recovery sequence and exposes the 4132.0 swing low (fib 50% near 4131.5)
Loss of 4115.8 Asia low would confirm the rebound as a pause in the slide
US housing starts/permits at 12:30 UTC could nudge yields and move this read during the NY session
04:47 UTC
Recovering from Asia low, momentum stalling · RSI 62 · price 4,143.98
V-shaped Asia rebound, higher lows capped under 4147–4150.
Asia flushed below Monday's NY low to 4115.76, then rebounded in a V back into Monday's late consolidation. Price is now compressing under the 4147.21 Asian high, just shy of the 4150 range floor that gave way on Monday's yield and oil-driven slide. The 4132.0 higher low, near the fib 50%, marks the base of the rebound, with RSI(14) near 62.
Support: 4,132.00, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4150 range floor turns it from resistance into reclaimed support
Failure to hold the 4132.0 higher low puts the 4115.76 Asian low back in play
London open in ~2h is the first test of the Asian high / Asian low boundaries
US Housing Starts / Permits at 12:30 UTC could move yields and shift this read
04:32 UTC
Intraday recovery after Asia sweep, momentum flattening · RSI 57 · price 4,144.50
V-shaped reversal from Asia low; higher-low chain now compressing under the Asia high.
The early-Asia drop, extending the yield- and oil-driven slide, broke below yesterday's NY low at 4136.6 to 4115.8, then reversed and reclaimed that level. The recovery has built a higher-low chain off the rising line from the Asia low, and price is now stalling just under the Asia high at 4147.2. That sits at the 38.2% retrace of the 4190–4116 drop and just below the 4150 range floor; RSI(14) is near 57 and bar ranges are narrowing into the London open.
Support: 4,138.10, 4,136.60, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,147.21, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4150 range floor reopens the 50% retrace near 4153; rejection at the Asia high or 4150 keeps the old range floor acting as resistance
Break of the 4138.1 higher low and the rising line from the Asia low ends the recovery structure
Loss of the 4136.6 ny low puts the 4115.8 asia low back in focus
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could nudge yields and shift this read
Higher lows off 4115.76 inside a broader lower-high sequence.
Gold lost the 4150 range floor during NY yesterday as yields and oil pushed higher. Asia then broke below the prior-day low to a 4115.76 asia low before a false break and rebound to a 4146.79 asia high, reclaiming the 4140 breakout lvl with a 4132 higher low. Late in the Asia session price is compressing just under 4150, RSI(14) near 58, with 38.2% of the asia rebound fib at 4135.
Support: 4,140.20, 4,132.00, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,146.79, 4,150.00, 4,155.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4150 range floor reclaims the prior range; the 4155 ny breakdown bar high is the next cap
Loss of the 4132 higher low breaks the asia rebound structure and reopens the 4115.76 asia low
Slip back under the 4140 breakout lvl puts the rebound at risk of fading into the prior downtrend
London open in ~3h is the first test of the asia high at 4146.79
US Housing Starts/Permits at 12:30 UTC could move yields and shift this read
Higher lows off the 4115.76 Asian low, pressing the broken 4150 range floor.
Gold lost the 4150 range floor during NY on firmer yields and oil. The late-Asia push under 4130 failed at the 4115.76 Asian low, and higher lows have since carried price to 4146, a 38.2% retrace of Monday's 4190–4116 decline. Price is now retesting the 4150 area from below, with RSI(14) near 61 and ATR around $6.4.
Support: 4,140.20, 4,132.00, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,153.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4150 range floor opens the 50% fib at 4153. A rejection there confirms the old floor as resistance.
4140 asia pivot is first support. A break of the 4132 higher low undoes the rebound structure.
Loss of the 4115.76 asian low resumes the decline.
US ADP and housing data from 12:15 UTC could move yields and shift this read.
03:47 UTC
Down from Monday's 4190 London high, Asia rebound testing broken range floor · RSI 59 · price 4,145.05
HH/HL chain since 4115.76 Asian low, capped just under 4150.
Monday's NY open broke the 4150 range floor as 5.14% 10y yields and $99 oil firmed USD. Asia swept lower to the 4115.76 Asian low, then rebounded about 30 dollars in a higher-low chain along the Asia uptrend line. Price is now pressing a 4146.6 session high just under the old range floor, with RSI(14) near 59 and above both EMAs.
Support: 4,138.10, 4,132.50, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,146.60, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4150 range floor would reclaim the broken level. Rejection there keeps it as resistance.
Loss of the 4138.1 higher low and the 4132.5 swing low breaks the Asia uptrend line and the HL chain.
A break of the 4115.76 Asian low would extend Monday's lower-low sequence.
US housing data and ADP at 12:15–14:00 UTC could move yields and shift this read during the London-NY transition.
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound in progress · RSI 55 · price 4,142.05
Higher-low chain off Asia low, retesting broken range from below.
Monday's London high at 4190.31 capped price. The NY slide through the 4150 range floor, on 5%+ 10y yields and $99 oil, extended to an Asia low at 4115.76. Since then, Asia has printed higher lows up to a 4145.99 session high, putting price back inside the old NY range just under 4150 with RSI(14) near 55.
Support: 4,131.99, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,145.99, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4150 range floor reclaims the broken range
Failure to hold the 4131.99 higher low breaks the rebound chain and exposes the 4115.76 asia low
US ADP / Housing Starts / Permits from 12:15 UTC could materially shift yields and this read
03:03 UTC
Downtrend, Asia rebound stalling · RSI 52 · price 4,138.95
Lower highs intact; V-rebound off 4115.76 capped at 4140.
Monday's London/NY sell-off broke the 4150 range floor as 10y yields pushed above 5.1% and oil firmed. Late Asia extended to a 4115.76 asia low before a V-shaped rebound, which has met rejection twice at the 4140.24 rebound high, just under the EMA50, with a pullback low at 4132.5 and a higher low at 4126.1 below.
Support: 4,132.50, 4,126.10, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,140.24, 4,144.20, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4140.24 rebound high opens the 38.2% fib near 4144.2 and a retest of the 4150 range floor from below
Failure to hold the 4132.5 pullback low, then the 4126.1 higher low, unwinds the Asia rebound back toward the 4115.76 asia low
London open in ~4h; US housing data and ADP from 12:15 UTC could nudge yields and shift this read
Lower highs below 4150; Asia flush to 4115.8 retraced, capped at 4140.
Gold has stayed heavy since Monday's NY-open break of the 4150 range floor, with firmer yields and oil behind the move. A late-Asia flush to the 4115.8 session low V-bounced but met rejection at 4140.2, just above the prior low at 4136.6. Price sits near the 38.2% fib of that bounce, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) in the mid-40s.
Support: 4,129.30, 4,115.80
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,140.20, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4140.2 rejection and the 4136.6 prior low would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4129.3 swing low reopens the 4115.8 session low
US housing data from 12:30 to 14:00 UTC and the 10y near 5.14% could shift the read; the 4150 range floor caps above
Lower highs intact; V-recovery pressing Asian high and descending trendline.
Gold lost the 4150 range floor in Monday NY as firmer yields and oil weighed, then an early-Asia flush printed a 4115.76 session low. A V-shaped rebound has carried price back to 4140, testing the asian high at 4142.9 and the descending trendline of lower highs from 4149, with price above the ema20 but still below EMA50.
Support: 4,134.30, 4,129.30, 4,115.76
Resistance: 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the asian high at 4142.9 and the descending trendline opens a retest of the 4150 range floor
Slip back below the ema20 near 4134 and the prior low at 4129.3, the 50% of the rebound fib, returns focus to the 4115.76 session low
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC during the London-NY transition could shift yields and this read
02:03 UTC
Downtrend, early Asia bounce · RSI 41 · price 4,128.30
Lower highs and lower lows since London high at 4190.
Monday's London high at 4190.31 capped price. The NY session broke the 4150 range floor as oil-driven yield gains firmed the USD, and early Asia extended the slide to an asia low of 4115.76. The bounce has stalled at a 4131.25 bounce high, below the old ny low at 4136.6 and the lower-highs trendline. RSI(14) is near 41.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,131.25, 4,136.60, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4136.6 (ny low) and the lower-highs trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 4115.76 (asia low) confirms a fresh lower low toward 4100 psych
Reclaim of 4150 range floor, near the 50% fib of the drop, would negate the range break
London open and Tue US housing data (12:30 UTC) could shift the yield read
LH/LL chain since Monday's London high; Asia broke Monday low.
The lower-highs chain from Monday's 4190 London-open high is intact. Asia broke below the 4136.6 Monday low and printed a session low at 4115.76 as firmer yields and $99 oil weighed. The bounce is stalling near 4127, inside the 38.2% retracement of the 4149–4116 drop, with RSI(14) at 34.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,129.32, 4,136.60, 4,142.92
What it said to watch
Closes back above the 4129 prior low and the 4136.6 Monday low would neutralise the Asia break; the lower-highs trendline sits near 4136
Loss of the 4115.76 session low exposes the 4100 round number
A break above the 4142.9 session high ends the lower-high chain
US housing data at 12:30–14:00 UTC could shift yields and this read
01:32 UTC
Downtrend, extending in Asia · RSI 30 · price 4,122.27
Lower highs, lower lows; Asian range broken lower.
The lower-high chain from Monday's 4190 London high is intact. Asia slipped below its 4129–4143 range to a 4115.76 session low, with firmer yields and oil keeping gold capped beneath the 4150 range floor. RSI(14) is near 30, soft but not yet stretched.
Support: 4,115.76, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,129.30, 4,139.42, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
A move back above the 4129 asian low and into the range would mark the break as a false break
An M15 close above the 4139.42 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and the trendline
Failure to hold the 4115.76 session low opens the 4100 round number, the top of the cited demand zone
US housing data (12:15–14:00 UTC) could shift yields and this read
01:16 UTC
Downtrend, fresh leg lower in Asia · RSI 28 · price 4,121.07
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's 4190 high; Asia broke the prior lows.
Gold slid through Monday's NY low at 4136.6 during the Asia session, then dropped below the 4129.3 broken low to a session low at 4121, as firmer 10y yields near 5.14% on $99 oil weighed. The lower high at 4139.4 caps a sequence of lower highs since the London rejection near 4177; RSI(14) near 28 is stretched but not at an extreme.
Support: 4,121.05, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,129.32, 4,139.42, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4129.3 broken low turns the Asia break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4121 session low leaves the 4100 round number as the next reference
A move above the 4139.4 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 4150 range floor sits above
US housing starts and permits at 12:30 UTC could move yields and this read
Lower-high/lower-low chain since London open peak at 4190; early Asia printing fresh lows.
Clean lower-high sequence from the 4190 London-open peak. NY broke the 4150 range floor as yields and oil firmed, and early Asia has extended to a fresh session low at 4124.56. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold, and the descending trendline from 4149 has capped each bounce, most recently at the 4139.42 lower high.
Support: 4,124.56, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,139.42, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4139.42 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4142.92 Asia high, then the 4150 range floor, would undo the range-break read
Acceptance below the 4124.56 session low keeps the 4100 round number in view
US housing data and Pending Home Sales (12:30–14:00 UTC) could shift this read via yields
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 40 · price 4,132.69
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4190 London-open high; 4150 range floor broken.
Gold lost the 4150 range floor in the first hour of NY Monday as oil near $99 lifted the 10y yield to 5.14%. Lower highs have followed at 4149, 4143 and the 4139.42 swing high, and Asia has pushed the session low to 4129.54. RSI(14) near 40 is not oversold.
Support: 4,129.54
Resistance: 4,139.42, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4142.92 asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and the sequence
Failure to hold the 4129.54 asian low extends the lower-low chain
4150 range floor sits near the 38.2% of the 4190-4130 drop; a reclaim would point to the break failing
US Housing Starts/Permits 12:30 UTC and Pending Home Sales 14:00 UTC could nudge yields and this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower in Asia · RSI 40 · price 4,134.67
Lower-high/lower-low chain below broken 4150 range floor.
Monday's NY-open break of the 4150 range floor, as 5%+ 10y yields and firmer oil weighed, has carried into early Tuesday Asia with lower highs and a new session low at 4130.03. RSI(14) near 40 with price below EMA20 and EMA50. The 4139.21 lower high and 4142.92 Asian high are capping bounces.
Support: 4,130.03
Resistance: 4,139.21, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4139.21 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 4142.92 Asian high is next
Failure to hold the 4130.03 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4150 range floor would turn Monday's break into a false break
Yield/oil moves and US housing data from 12:30 UTC could shift this read
LH/LL chain from 4190 London-open high; early Asia printed a new low at 4131.46, small bounce in progress.
Gold has carried lower highs since the 4190 London-open high, breaking the 4150 range floor during NY hours as firmer yields and oil weighed. Early Asia extended the drop to a 4131.46 session low, and the latest bar is back above Monday's 4136.6 prior low. The Asian range of 4131–4143 is still developing, with RSI(14) near 42 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,136.60, 4,131.46
Resistance: 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4142.92 asia high breaks the lower-highs line and opens a retest of the 4150 range floor
Failure to hold 4131.46 session low extends the lower-low chain
Slipping back below the 4136.6 prior low keeps the bounce contained
US ADP and housing data at 12:15–12:30 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
London rejection at 4190, NY breakdown below 4150 range floor, Asia grinding to fresh lows.
London capped at the 4190.31 session high. The NY open then broke the 4150 range floor, and price extended to a 4131.46 Asia low as oil-led yield gains weighed on gold. The lower-high chain is intact, and the prior low at 4136.60 now caps price. RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,131.46, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,136.60, 4,142.92, 4,150.00
What it said to watch
A close back above the 4136.60 prior low and the 4142.92 asia high would stall the lower-low sequence
A break of the 4131.46 asia low extends the chain toward the 4100 psych zone flagged in the macro digest
Only a reclaim of the 4150 range floor negates the breakdown and the lower highs trendline
US ADP and housing data (12:15–12:30 UTC) during the NY session could shift the yield-driven read