21:07 UTC
Downtrend from late-August peak, stalling in a range · RSI 41 · price 4,135.54
Lower highs since Aug 25; 4066–4227 range for 3+ weeks.
Gold has printed a run of lower highs from the 4696 late-August peak (4511, 4400, then 4227). Price sits below a falling EMA(50) near 4235, and the EMA20 near 4187 has capped each bounce. Since the Sep 28 slide to the sep 28 low at 4111, price has held a 4066–4227 range for over three weeks, with the range top stepping lower each week (4227, 4207, 4199) while the range floor held twice at 4066–4074. Last week's hot core PPI kept December hike pricing near 90%, and gold's failure to extend on softer yields this week leaves it pinned just above the 78.6% retracement of the July–August rally near 4117.
Support: 4,110.84, 3,959.70
Resistance: 4,187.00, 4,227.28, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the range floor at 4066 confirms a lower low and opens the path toward the jul low near 3960
- Holding the sep 28 low at 4111, alongside the 78.6% fib, keeps the range read intact
- Daily close above the range top at 4227 and the EMA(50) near 4235 would break the lower-high sequence; the sep 18 high at 4400 is the next pivot
- Reclaiming the ema20 near 4187 on a closing basis would mark the first daily close back above the short-term average since late September
- Fri Oct 23 PMIs and UoM inflation expectations, then next week's FOMC, could materially shift this read