21:08 UTC
Corrective downtrend since the Aug 25 peak, momentum neutral · RSI 46 · price 4,310.07
Lower highs and lower lows inside a descending channel off 4,697; price back below both EMAs.
Gold has traced a descending channel since the 4,697 Aug 25 peak, printing a lower high at 4,511 and a 4,400 swing high, with a six-week swing low at 4,235 on Sep 16. That low sits just under the 61.8% retracement of the Aug rally. Price has now slipped below EMA20 (~4,360) and a flattening EMA50 near 4,343. Three sessions this week stalled under the channel top around 4,370–4,383, and today's hot US PMIs lifted 10y yields above 5.1%, dragging the close to 4,310, just above the Sep 2 low.
What it said to watch
- Daily close below the 4,282 Sep 2 low exposes the 4,235 swing low and the Aug rally 61.8% retracement near 4,264
- Loss of the 4,235 swing low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4,166 range top of the July base
- Close back above the ema50 and channel top, then the 4,400 swing high, breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4,511 lower high back in view
- Thursday's Jobless Claims (f/c 201K), Williams/Hammack Fedspeak and the Trump-Xi meeting could materially shift this read via yields and DXY