Lower highs from 4142 into a 3976–4034 consolidation; higher low Monday.
Gold has printed lower highs from Wednesday's 4142.17 peak. It broke through 4070 across Thursday's London and NY sessions, then the firm US PMI and Michigan beats on Friday drove it to the 3975.70 three-month low. Since then price has held a 3976–4034 consolidation. Monday's Asia dip to 3978.16 set a higher low and a potential double bottom, and the oil- and yield-driven rebound was capped at the 4029.82 week high, just above the 23.6% fib. Price now sits flat just under the ema20 near 4013 with RSI(14) around 48, while the ny spike low at 3988.84, which reversed fully into the NY open, and the 4000.47 weekly open frame the lower side.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,988.84, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,013.00, 4,029.82, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034.26 friday high would complete the double bottom and opens the 38.2% fib near 4039 and the 4070 former range floor
Failure to hold the 4000.47 weekly open and the rising trendline from Monday's low exposes the ny spike low at 3988.84 and then the 3975.70 three-month low
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence, then Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC; any shift in the ~83% December hike pricing could materially change this read
Lower highs from 4142.17; Monday range 3978–4030 holding above the 3975.70 low.
Thursday's breakdown below 4092 began in Asia and extended through London and NY. The slide reached a 3-month low at 3975.70 in Friday's NY session, as oil above $100 revived the energy-inflation story. Since Monday's open, the Asia dip to 3978.16 held above that low, and the NY-session false break to 3988.84 was reclaimed within the hour as easing oil and yields lifted gold back over the 4000 psych level. Price now sits on the 23.6% retracement near 4015 and above the ema20 near 4011, but below EMA(50) around 4021, with the monday high at 4029.82 and the friday high at 4034.26 capping the range top.
Support: 4,011.40, 4,000.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,029.82, 4,034.26, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034.26 friday high clears the Monday range and exposes the 38.2% retracement near 4039
Failure to hold the 4000 psych level and the Monday higher lows reopens the 3-month low at 3975.70
Loss of the ema20 near 4011 returns price to the middle of the 3978–4030 range
Recovery of the 4092 breakdown level would unwind Thursday's leg lower
Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC), then the Fed decision (Wed 18:00 UTC), could materially shift this read
Gold's selloff from Wednesday's 4142 high ran into a 3975.70 three-month low during Friday's NY session, as WTI above $100 and December hike pricing revived the energy-inflation trade. Since then H1 has compressed into a 3978–4030 band. Monday's Asia-session retest at 3978.16 held, and a NY-open flush to 3988.84 was fully reversed as oil and yields eased, leaving a potential double bottom with the Monday high and Friday high as the neckline. Price sits back above EMA(20) and just under EMA(50), near the 23.6% retrace of the selloff (~4015), with RSI(14) in the mid-50s and off oversold.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,988.84, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,029.82, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034.26 friday high confirms the double bottom and exposes the 38.2% retrace near 4039
Failure to hold the 4000.47 weekly open reopens the ny-open low at 3988.84 and the 3-month low at 3975.70
A break of the higher lows trendline from 3978.16 undercuts the basing read
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods, then Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4155 into a Monday range 3978–4026 with rising lows.
Last week's lower-high sequence from 4155 ran into a 3975.70 three-month low in Friday's NY session, as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing weighed on gold. Monday has held a 3978–4026 range above psych 4000, with demand stepping in at the Asia low and again in the first hour of NY. The dip to the ny dip low at 3988.84 was a false break, reversed within the hour to the monday high, leaving price above EMA(20) and the 23.6% retracement of the weekly drop with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,988.84, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,026.58, 4,034.26, 4,044.38
What it said to watch
H1 close above the friday high at 4034.26 and the fib 38.2 at 4044 would shift the read from basing to a deeper retracement of the weekly drop
Repeated rejection at the monday high at 4026.58 keeps the Monday range intact below the Thursday–Friday supply
Loss of the ny dip low at 3988.84 and psych 4000 breaks the monday lows trendline and reopens the 3m low at 3975.70
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
14:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 4000 · RSI 48 · price 3,997.46
Lower highs from 4155 peak; 3976–4025 consolidation since Friday.
Gold has carved lower highs since Tuesday's 4155 peak. The heaviest selling came during London and NY hours from Wednesday through Friday as oil-driven Fed-hike fears built, and the slide bottomed at the 3975.70 Friday low. Monday's London-session rebound from the 3978 Asia low stalled at 4025.46, short of the 38.2% fib at 4044. That Monday high was rejected into the NY open, leaving a 3988.84 NY dip low and pushing price back under the 4000.47 weekly open and below both EMA(20) and EMA(50).
Support: 3,988.84, 3,975.70, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,000.47, 4,025.46, 4,044.38
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4000.47 weekly open and then the 4025.46 Monday high would break the lower-highs trendline and ease the downtrend read
Failure to hold the 3988.84 NY dip low exposes the 3975.70 Friday low; a close below it extends the sequence toward the 3960 June low zone flagged by SocGen
Reclaiming the 38.2% fib at 4044 would shift the structure from consolidation toward a deeper retracement of the week's drop
Tue Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) set the pre-FOMC tone; the Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision could materially shift this read
Oil remains the swing factor: a renewed WTI spike above $100 would pressure the 4000 area again
Lower highs from 4142; tight range 4004–4025 above weekly open.
Thursday's Asia and London sessions drove the week's main leg, taking gold from 4140 to 4021 as the oil-driven energy-inflation trade built. Friday's NY open bar extended the drop to the 3975.70 friday low. Monday's Asia session held 3978 and reclaimed the 4000.47 weekly open as oil eased, but price has since compressed between the ema20 near 4011 and the 4025.46 monday high, which sits just under EMA(50) (~4027) and the 23.6–38.2% fib band (4015–4039) of the Wednesday–Friday drop. RSI(14) has recovered to the high 50s without follow-through, so the structure reads as consolidation inside a series of lower highs, with the 4034 friday high and 4065–4070 former support as the upside markers.
Support: 4,011.00, 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,025.46, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Hourly close back below the 4000.47 weekly open puts the 3975.70 friday low back in play; a break there confirms a lower-low
Reclaim of the 4025.46 monday high and the 4034.26 friday high (38.2% fib ~4039) would ease the lower-high structure and open the 4066 former support
Losing the ema20 near 4011 on a closing basis would end Monday's recovery sequence
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC as pre-Fed tone setters
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; oil headlines remain the intraday swing factor
12:05 UTC
Downtrend, rebounding off the week low · RSI 56 · price 4,016.33
Lower highs from 4142; double bottom at 3976–3978, price between EMAs.
The Wednesday-to-Friday drop ran from 4142 to the 3975.70 Friday low. Its final flush came in Friday's NY session as the oil-driven energy-inflation trade weighed. Monday's Asia session dip stalled at 3978, forming a double bottom against the Friday low, and price rebounded off the 4000 weekly open into London open as oil and yields eased. Price is now above EMA(20), sitting on the 23.6% retracement near 4015, with RSI(14) near 56 and follow-through thin beneath the 4022 Monday high, where EMA(50) also sits.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,022.32, 4,034.26, 4,039.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4022 Monday high and EMA(50) opens the 4034 Friday high and the fib 38.2% retracement near 4039
Loss of the Monday higher lows and the 4000 weekly open shifts focus back to the 3975.70 Friday low
A break below the Friday low invalidates the double bottom and extends the lower-low sequence
Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4155; double bottom 3976/3978, 4006 neckline reclaimed.
Gold printed lower highs from Tuesday's 4155 peak. Thursday's Asia-to-NY selloff and Friday's early-NY reversal from 4034.3 on the firm PMI and Michigan beats set the 3975.7 week low, with oil-driven hike fears behind the move. Monday's Asia session held a higher low at 3978 and reclaimed 4000 and EMA(20) near 4010 as oil eased, completing a double bottom whose 4006 neckline was retested at the 4003.4 higher low into the London open. Price now stalls at 4016, just under the 23.6% fib (4018) of the week decline and below EMA(50) near 4028, with RSI(14) back to ~52 from sub-40 readings and follow-through so far limited below the 4022.3 day high.
Support: 4,003.40, 4,000.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,022.30, 4,034.30, 4,066.80
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4022.3 day high and EMA(50) near 4028 opens the 4034.3 friday high, the double bottom measured objective
Loss of 4000 psych and the 4003.4 higher low would void the double bottom and put the 3975.7 week low back in focus
Reclaim of 4066.8 former supp, near the 50% fib of the week decline, would break the lower-high sequence
Tue Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Wed FOMC 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; oil headlines remain the swing factor
Lower highs from 4140 intact; Monday higher low at 3978 above the 3975.7 low.
The week's dominant leg came Thursday, when gold broke the 4065/4070 former supp area during London and NY hours, and Friday's NY session extended it to a 3,975.7 3-month low. Monday's Asia session retested that zone at 3978, then lifted back above psych 4000 on a softer USD and an oil pullback. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 4007 and at the 23.6% fib, with the monday high at 4022 and EMA(50) near 4027 overhead. A possible double bottom has its neckline at the 4034 friday high, and it stays unconfirmed below that level.
Support: 4,003.40, 4,000.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,022.30, 4,034.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034 friday high confirms the double bottom and opens the 38.2% fib at 4044, then the 4065 former supp
Repeated rejection at the 4022 monday high keeps the lower-high trendline sequence intact
Failure to hold the 4003 pullback low and psych 4000 puts the 3-month low at 3975.7 back in play
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC decision could materially shift this read
07:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing near 4000 · RSI 50 · price 4,007.43
Lower highs and lower lows from Tuesday's 4155 high; tight base at 3975-4020.
Gold has set lower highs and lower lows since Tuesday's 4155 high. Thursday's slide broke the 4065/4070 former support, and Friday's NY-session flush after firm US PMIs printed the 3975.70 3m low. A softer USD and easing oil drove Monday's Asia-session rebound off 3978, reclaiming the 4000 weekly open, but the bounce stalled at the Monday high near 4019, roughly the 23.6% fib. Price now sits just under EMA(20) near 4008, with RSI(14) flat at 50 and EMA(50) near 4030 lining up with the 4034 Friday high.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,019.38, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4000 weekly open would put the 3978 Monday low and 3975.70 3m low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Close above the 4019 Monday high (23.6% fib) opens the 4034 Friday high and EMA(50); only a reclaim of 4065/4070 former supp (50% fib) would break the downtrend read
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and 14:00 UTC Consumer Confidence, then Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC, are the main catalysts for this structure
WTI holding near $100 has capped each rebound this week; an oil reversal higher would weigh on the 4000 handle
The 4105–4142 range gave way on Thursday. The leg lower ran through the London-NY transition, cut the 4066.8 broken supp area and printed the 3975.70 week low at Friday's NY open. Monday's Asia session dipped to 3978 for a near-match of that low, then lifted back above the 4000 round number as the USD softened and oil pulled back. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 4008 and at the 23.6% retracement around 4015, capped so far by the 4019.4 session high and still below EMA(50) near 4032. RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-50s from oversold readings late last week. The two lows form a tentative double bottom, unconfirmed while the 4034 friday high holds.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,019.38, 4,034.26, 4,066.81
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034.26 friday high confirms the double bottom and breaks the lower-high sequence, bringing the 4066.8 broken supp zone into view
Failure to hold the 4000 round number and a break of the 3975.70 week low resumes the downtrend
Rejection at the 4019.4 session high would keep the double bottom a lower-high continuation within the downtrend
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and the Wed 18:00 UTC Fed decision could materially shift this read
Gold has carved lower highs since Wednesday's 4142 peak. The heaviest selling came in Thursday's NY session, then a Friday NY-open flush to the 3975.70 friday low followed beats in US manufacturing PMI and Michigan sentiment, as oil-driven Fed-hike repricing outweighed lower yields. Monday's Asia session held a higher low at 3978 and lifted back through the 4000 handle and the lower highs trendline, forming a small double bottom, with price now pressing the monday high at 4016.7 on the 23.6% fib, above EMA(20) but below EMA(50); the friday high at 4034 sits near the 38.2% retrace, with old support at 4066 above.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,016.70, 4,034.26, 4,066.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034 friday high opens the 38.2–50% fib zone toward 4059 and old support at 4066
Failure to hold the 4000 handle puts the 3975.70 friday low back in play; a break below resumes the downtrend toward 3960/3940
US Durable Goods (Tue 12:30 UTC) and the FOMC decision (Wed 18:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4142; double-low base 3976–3978 under 4034.
Tuesday–Wednesday's 4105–4155 range gave way in Thursday's Asia session. The slide then ran through Friday's NY session to a 3-month low at 3975.70, as firm US data and oil-driven Fed-hike repricing weighed. Monday's Asia session opened at the 4000.47 week open, dipped to a marginally higher monday low at 3978.16, then bounced to a 4016.70 monday high at the 23.6% retracement of the week's drop, leaving price pinned to EMA(20) near 4007 with RSI(14) recovered to ~50; the friday high at 4034 and EMA(50) near 4032 sit just above as the first cap.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,978.16, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,016.70, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3975.70 3-month low and the 3978.16 monday low would turn the double-low base into a fresh lower-low
Acceptance above the 4016.70 monday high and the 4034 friday high / EMA(50) would print the first higher-high since Wednesday, with old support at 4065–4070 the next overhead reference
Repeated H1 closes back under the 4000 week open keep the 3976–4017 base intact and the downtrend read unchanged
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, then the FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday; tight 3975–4005 base below EMA(20).
Thursday's Asia-to-London selling broke 4100 and then the 4065–4070 old support, as oil above $100 drove Fed-hike repricing. Friday's NY session extended the slide to the 3975.70 friday low after the PMI and Michigan beats, with the lower-highs line from Wednesday's 4142 capping every rebound. Since then price has compressed around the 4000 psych level, just under EMA(20) near 4006, and RSI(14) has recovered to the mid-40s. Monday's Asian-range dip to 3978 held above the friday low.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,975.70, 3,940.00
Resistance: 4,006.00, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the ema20 near 4006 and the lower-highs line would break the lower-high sequence; the 4034 friday high sits next, near the 38.2% of the 4142–3975 fib
Failure to hold the 4000 psych level and a break of the 3975.70 friday low would confirm a lower-low, with the june low zone at 3960/3940 below
Old support at 4065–4070 now caps above the 50–61.8% retracement band
Tue US Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Wed FOMC 18:00 UTC, where December hike guidance is the variable, could materially shift this read
02:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 35 · price 3,988.75
Lower highs since Wednesday's 4142 peak; tight range above Friday low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Wednesday's late 4142 peak. Thursday's London-NY sell-off and Friday's NY flush to the 3975.70 friday low drove the leg, as $100+ oil lifted Fed-hike pricing and haven flows went to Treasuries instead of gold. Since that low, price has compressed in a 3978–4006 band below EMA(20) near 4004, with Monday's Asia session slipping back under the 4000.47 weekly open and setting a 3978.16 asia low. RSI(14) near 35 has eased off oversold with no divergence against the lows.
Support: 3,978.16, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.47, 4,004.00, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
An hourly close below the 3975.70 friday low and the 3978.16 asia low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3960/3940 June-low zone
Recapture of the 4000.47 weekly open and the 4004 ema20 would end the compression read below the round number
A move through the 4034.26 friday high, near the 38.2% fib of the Wednesday–Friday sell-off, breaks the lower highs sequence
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and the Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC decision on December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
WTI holding above $100 keeps the oil-driven inflation pressure on gold in place
Lower highs and lower lows since Thursday's break of the 4105 range floor.
Gold held a 4105–4155 range on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday broke the range floor at 4105 and carried price down in steady steps from Asia through NY, the dominant leg of the week, as $100+ oil lifted Fed-hike bets and the haven bid went to Treasuries instead of gold. Friday's bounce stalled at the 4034.26 Friday high, short of the 38.2% fib near 4039. Monday's Asia session has slipped from the 4000.47 weekly open toward the 3975.70 Friday low, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) near 30.
Support: 3,975.70, 3,960.00
Resistance: 4,000.47, 4,034.26, 4,104.98
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 3975.70 Friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3960 June low zone
Recapture of the 4000.47 weekly open, then the 4034.26 Friday high, would be the first break in the lower-high structure
A new price low on a higher RSI(14) low would register as bullish divergence from near-oversold readings
Tue Durable Goods and Consumer Confidence, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since Wednesday; tight compression above Friday low.
Gold has printed lower highs since Wednesday's 4142.17 peak. The dominant Thursday–Friday leg lower ran through Thursday's London and NY sessions as $100+ oil revived Fed-hike pricing. Friday's NY-session flush to 3975.70 came alongside the firm US flash PMIs and was absorbed, and price has since compressed in a 3989–4006 band just under the 4000 psych level, below EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 3,989.49, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,034.26, 4,058.94
What it said to watch
H1 close back above the 4000 psych level and EMA(20) would break the post-Friday compression to the upside
Recovery through the 4034.26 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence; the Thursday–Friday leg fib 50% at 4058.94 sits just under the 4065 broken support
Failure to hold the 3989.49 asian low and the 3975.70 friday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 3960/3940 June-low zone
Tue 12:30 UTC Durable Goods and Wed 18:00 UTC FOMC (December hike guidance) could materially shift this read