4-day 3975–4030 range broken higher; tight consolidation under week high.
After last week's slide into a 3975.70 three-month low, gold based in a 3975–4030 range from Friday through Tuesday morning, with the London-open low at 3989.15 holding above a rising base from Monday's Asia low. Tuesday's impulse came in the NY session: price cleared the 4029.82 monday high and ran to a 4065.68 week high, as WTI eased toward $100 despite firmer USD and yields. Since then price has held a tight 4054–4066 consolidation well above EMA(20), with RSI(14) cooling from overbought into the high 60s and the 4000 weekly open now well below.
Support: 4,054.32, 4,029.82, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4065.68 week high opens the path to the 4092 prior high, the short-covering trigger flagged in the digest
H1 close below the 4054.32 consol low puts the 38.2% retrace of Tuesday's impulse near 4036 and the 4029.82 monday high in focus
Loss of 4030 back into the old range would leave the rising base and 4000 weekly open as the remaining structure
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) is a second risk window for the range break
Gold slid from 4142 on Wednesday to the 3975.7 three-month low on Friday. It then based between 3978 and the 4030 range top through Monday and Tuesday, printing higher lows at 3988.8 and 3989.2. The NY session on Tuesday broke that range top as oil relief offset a firmer USD, lifting price to a 4065.7 day high. Price is now holding just above the 50% retracement of the Wednesday–Friday drop (4059), and the post-breakout pullback low sits at 4054.3. RSI(14) is near 71 and price sits well above EMA(20), so momentum is stretched after a near 30-pip-ATR impulse bar.
Support: 4,054.30, 4,030.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,065.70, 4,078.60, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4065.7 day high opens the fib 61.8 at 4078.6, then the thu pivot near 4092, which TD flags as a short-covering trigger
A break of the 4054.3 pullback low would put the breakout retest of the 4030 range top in play
A move back below the 4000 psych level and the higher-lows trendline would negate the base breakout
Gold based between 3978 and 4030 from Friday's 3975.7 three-month low through Monday. The NY session on Tuesday then drove a $76 impulse off the 3989 London low and through the range top. The move came on oil relief even as the USD and yields firmed. Price has since compressed at 4055–4066 just under the week high, holding above EMA(20) near 4035 with RSI(14) easing to ~68 from near-overbought. The 38.2% fib of the impulse at 4036 lines up with EMA(20) and the Monday high at 4030. That cluster is the first support area on any pullback, with the weekly open at 4000.5 below it.
Support: 4,035.00, 4,029.82, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC presser could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4065.7 week high opens the path to the 4092 breakdown shelf from Thursday
H1 close back below the Monday high at 4030 returns price to the prior range and negates the range break
Loss of the 4000.5 weekly open puts the base lows at 3978/3975.7 back in focus
Core PCE Thu 29 Oct 12:30 UTC is a second event risk for the range break
20:04 UTC
Rebound off last week's low, breakout from base · RSI 72 · price 4,060.77
Higher lows since Friday; 3975–4030 base broken to upside.
Gold broke out of the 3975–4030 base during Tuesday's NY session, lifting to a 4065.68 session high as WTI eased on US-Iran de-escalation hopes, even with firmer USD and yields. The impulse stalls at the 50% level of the decline fib (4142–3975.70), with higher lows in place since Friday's 3975.70 low and RSI(14) near 72 after the move. The prior range top at 4030 and EMA(20) near 4035 are the first references on any pullback, with 4000 psych below.
Support: 4,035.00, 4,030.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,092.00, 4,142.17
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the range top at 4030 would undercut the breakout read and return price to the base
Acceptance above the 4065.68 session high opens the 61.8% decline fib near 4078.6 and the 4092 prior pivot, TD's short-covering level
Break of the higher lows trendline from 3975.70 reopens 4000 psych
Last wk high at 4142.17 caps the broader recovery structure
FOMC Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC and Warsh's 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read; core PCE follows Thu 12:30 UTC
19:05 UTC
Breakout higher, momentum stalling at week high · RSI 68 · price 4,057.81
Range break above 4030, tight consolidation below 4066.
Tuesday's NY session broke the 3976–4030 range in place since Friday. Oil relief on US-Iran de-escalation hopes drove a 75-point push off the 3989 London low despite a firmer dollar, and EMA(20) has crossed above EMA(50). The rally stalled at the 4065.68 week high, at the 50% retracement of last week's 4142–3976 decline, and has since held a tight 4054–4066 consolidation as RSI(14) eased from above 70 to about 68.
Support: 4,054.32, 4,029.82, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,065.68, 4,078.58, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the 4065.68 week high exposes the 61.8% fib at 4078.6, then the 4092 thu shelf where Thursday's breakdown began and TD flags short-covering.
Loss of the 4054 consol low turns the 50% fib stall into a rejection, with the Mon high at 4030 and EMA(20) near 4032 as the next test of the breakout.
A return below the 4000 weekly open would negate the range break. That would put the higher lows at 3989 and 3978 back in focus.
The FOMC decision on Wed at 18:00 UTC and Warsh's presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read. Core PCE follows Thu at 12:30 UTC.
Range break above 4034 after higher lows off 3975.
Gold dipped below the 4000 weekly open in the London session, then rallied roughly 75 dollars through the NY session as oil eased on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. The move cleared the 4034 range top that capped Friday and Monday, with EMA(20) now turning up near that level. Momentum stalled at the 4065 session high, just above the 50% retracement of last week's decline, while firm Durable Goods and a bid USD capped the bounce.
Support: 4,034.26, 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,078.58, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4034 range top returns the read to the 3975-4034 range
Acceptance above the 4065 session high opens the 61.8% fib at 4078.6 and the prior high at 4092
Break of the rising lows line and the 3975.7 3-month low would resume last week's decline
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC, then core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday, range top at 4034 broken in NY.
Gold broke out of the 3975–4034 range during NY hours today, running from the London low near 3989 to a week high of 4064.67 as oil eased on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. That completes a double bottom off Friday's 3975.70 three-month low and Monday's 3978, with higher lows building beneath. Price holds above EMA(20) and EMA(50) with RSI(14) near 69, and is stalling at the 50% retracement of last week's decline from 4142. The old range top at 4034 and the week open at 4000.47 sit below.
Support: 4,034.26, 4,000.47, 3,989.15
Resistance: 4,064.67, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Powell presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 4034 range top would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 4064.67 week high exposes the 61.8% retracement near 4078.6 and the Thursday shelf around 4092
Loss of the higher-lows line and the Tuesday low at 3989.15 would negate the double bottom
Double bottom 3978/3989 with neckline at 4034 broken in NY hours.
After last week's rout, gold spent Friday and Monday boxed between 3978 and the 4034 prior high. A London dip today stalled at 3989, printing higher lows above Monday's 3978. NY hours then drove a range break to a 4064 week high as oil eased on US-Iran de-escalation hopes, with the Durable Goods beat failing to cap the move. Price now sits well above the ema20 near 4024 with RSI(14) overbought in the low 70s, testing the 50% rout retrace off 4142, with the 61.8% near 4079 and the 4088-4092 prior shelf next above.
Support: 4,034.26, 4,024.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,092.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4034 prior high returns price to the 3978-4034 range and turns the break into a false break
Acceptance above the 4092 prior shelf (TD's short-covering trigger) and the 61.8% rout retrace opens the path toward 4116
Pullbacks holding the ema20 near 4024 and the higher lows trendline keep the double-bottom structure intact; loss of the 4000 psych negates it
FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30 UTC) could materially shift this read; Thu 12:30 UTC PCE is the follow-on risk
Double bottom near 3975, Monday high broken, testing 50% fib.
Gold has built a double bottom at Friday's 3,975.70 3m low and Monday's 3,978.16, and Tuesday's London-open dip to 3,989.15 formed a higher low before the first hours of NY cleared the Monday high at 4,029.82 as oil eased on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. Price is now pressing the 50% fib of last week's 4,142–3,975 slide near 4,059, with RSI(14) around 71 in overbought territory and price well clear of both EMA(20) and EMA(50). The week open at 4,000.47 has flipped from cap to floor through this leg.
What it said to watch
Fed decision Wed 28 Oct 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 50% fib at 4,059 opens the 61.8% fib at 4,078.6 and the Thu high at 4,091.7
Return below the Monday high at 4,029.8 would mark the breakout as a false break
Loss of the week open at 4,000.47 and the higher-low line puts the 3m low at 3,975.7 back in play
Thu core PCE at 12:30 UTC is a second risk point for the rebound
14:04 UTC
Range after sharp downtrend, recovering toward range top · RSI 59 · price 4,025.31
3975–4034 range following the Wed–Fri drop, higher lows building since Friday.
The Wed–Fri drop from 4142 bottomed at the 3975.70 3m low in Friday's NY session, as oil above $100 and Fed hike bets weighed. Since then price has held a 3975–4034 range around the weekly open near 4000, printing higher lows from Monday's Asia low at 3978 into today's London low at 3989. The push after the NY open and the Durable Goods beat took price to 4032, just under the friday high at the range top, with price back above EMA(20) near 4013 and RSI(14) near 59.
Support: 4,013.00, 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,034.26, 4,039.29, 4,092.28
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034.26 friday high and the 38.2% fib at 4039 breaks the range top and opens the path toward the 4092 breakdown shelf from Thursday
Failure to hold ema20 at 4013 and the 4000 weekly open returns price to the lower half of the range; a close below the 3975.70 3m low invalidates the higher lows
Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales at 14:00 UTC today are the last pre-Fed data check
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC (presser 18:30) and Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Range 3975–4034 with rising lows under a flat top.
Gold slid from Wednesday's 4142 high to a 3975.70 3-month low in Friday's first hour of NY as oil-driven December hike repricing weighed. Since then H1 has ranged between 3975 and 4034, with rising lows from Monday's Asia-session 3978 to Tuesday's London-open 3989. Price now sits back above EMA(20) near 4011 and fractionally above EMA(50), pressing the range top at 4030–4034 after the soft ex-transport Durable Goods detail offset the headline beat. RSI(14) is near 57, the 38.2% fib of the week's drop sits just above at 4039, and the 4000 handle at the weekly open marks the range midpoint.
Support: 4,011.00, 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,034.26, 4,039.29, 4,058.94
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034 range top and the 38.2% fib at 4039 breaks the range and opens the 50% fib at 4059
Rejection at the range top and a break of the rising lows (~3991) re-exposes the weekly open at 4000 and the 3975.70 3-month low
Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today, ahead of Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC and Powell at 18:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Loss of EMA(20) near 4011 on a closing basis returns price to mid-range
12:05 UTC
Downtrend paused, range contracting · RSI 56 · price 4,012.06
Lower highs and higher lows inside 3978–4030 since Friday.
Gold fell from 4142 to the 3975.70 3m low during Friday's NY session as oil-driven inflation fears and December-hike pricing weighed. Since then the range has compressed: the friday high at 4034, Monday's NY week high at 4029.82 and today's 4025.59 form lower highs, while lows have stepped up from 3978 in Monday's Asian session to the 3989.15 tuesday low. Today's London dip below the weekly open was reclaimed. Price now sits above EMA(20) near 4008 but under the ema50 around 4017, close to the 23.6% retracement of the Thursday–Friday drop, with RSI(14) near 56.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,989.15, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,017.00, 4,029.82, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could break the compression before Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC decision
An H1 close above the 4029.82 week high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the friday high at 4034 and the 38.2% fib near 4039
A failure to hold the 3989.15 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows line and puts the 3975.70 3m low back in focus
Holding the weekly open at 4000 keeps the range read intact; repeated H1 closes below it point to downtrend resumption
Lower highs and higher lows since Monday open; range 3978–4030.
The decline from Wednesday's 4142 high bottomed at the 3975.70 3-month low in Friday's NY session after the US PMI and Michigan beats revived hike pricing. Since Monday's open, gold has compressed into lower highs (4029.82 week high, then 4025.59) and higher lows (3978.16, then Tuesday's 3989.15). The Asia-session bounce on US-Iran de-escalation hopes faded during London hours as the USD firmed. Price sits on EMA(20) near 4008, just above the weekly open and capped below EMA50 near 4019, with RSI(14) flat at 52.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,989.15, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,019.00, 4,029.82, 4,039.29
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3989.15 higher low breaks the compression and puts the 3975.70 3-month low back in play
H1 close above 4029.82 week high ends the lower-high sequence and exposes the fib 38.2 near 4039
Repeated closes back below the weekly open at 4000.47 would show supply capping the bounce
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC today could break the range ahead of the FOMC
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC; December-hike guidance could materially shift this read
10:05 UTC
Range after sharp decline, mild downside drift · RSI 42 · price 4,002.20
3975–4030 range with lower highs since Friday.
The Wednesday-to-Friday selloff from 4142 bottomed at the 3975.70 3m low in Friday's NY session after firm US PMI and Michigan prints. Since then the week has held a 3978–4030 range around the 4,000 psych level. Monday's NY rally stalled at the week high of 4029.82, short of the 38.2% fib near 4039, and Tuesday's Asia day high at 4025.59 extended the lower-highs line. London then pushed price to a day low at 3989.15 as the USD firmed for a third day, leaving price below ema20 (~4008) and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 3,989.15, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,008.00, 4,025.59, 4,029.82
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 3975.70 3m low breaks the range floor and resumes the decline
Loss of the 3989.15 day low puts the 3m low back in focus
Recovery above ema20 and the 4029.82 week high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 38.2% fib near 4039
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) could shift pre-FOMC hike pricing; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC is the main risk to this read
Post-selloff range 3975–4030 with a slightly lower high today.
Last week's Wednesday-to-Friday slide from 4142 found a floor at the 3975.70 3m low. Since Monday's open, near 4000, price has held a 3978–4030 range: demand absorbed the dips at the 3978.16 week low and in NY hours on Monday, while the 4029.82 week high and Tuesday's 4025.59 Asia high capped the bounces just above the fib 23.6% at about 4015. A third day of USD firmness ahead of FOMC knocked gold off its Asia high into the London open, back below EMA20 (about 4006) and the 4000 psych handle, with RSI(14) near 41 and Tuesday's day low at 3989.15 the nearest support.
Support: 3,989.15, 3,978.16, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.00, 4,006.00, 4,029.82
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 3975.70 3m low would confirm a lower-low and resume last week's downtrend
Holding the 3978.16 week low keeps the range read intact; failure to hold the 3989.15 day low puts the range floor in play
H1 reclaim of 4000 psych and EMA20 near 4006 would neutralise this morning's drop; a close above the 4029.82 week high breaks the lower-highs line
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could move yields and USD before FOMC
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; December hike signalling is the swing factor
Lower highs into a 3976–4034 pennant after the Thu–Fri impulse lower.
The Thursday–Friday slide from 4142 bottomed at the 3975.70 three-month low (3m low) in Friday's NY session. Since then price has compressed between 3976 and 4034, with lower highs at 4034, 4030 and 4026. Monday's bounce off the 3978 monday low on US-Iran de-escalation hopes stalled under the 4029.82 monday high, and a third day of USD firmness through Tuesday's Asia session has pushed price back below the 4000.47 weekly open and the EMA(20) near 4008, with RSI(14) slipping toward 39.
Support: 3,988.84, 3,978.16, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,000.47, 4,029.82
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 3988.84 swing low exposes the 3978 monday low and the 3975.70 3m low
Recovery above the weekly open and ema20 near 4008 brings the lower highs line around 4026 back into focus
Close above the 4029.82 monday high breaks the lower highs sequence of the pennant
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could move yields ahead of FOMC
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
07:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range above the lows · RSI 40 · price 4,000.00
Lower highs from Wednesday into a 3978–4030 range, with lower highs since Monday.
Gold extended the Wednesday–Friday drop into a Friday NY-session flush to the 3975.70 3m low as oil-driven hike bets weighed. Since Monday's open it has held a range: buyers stepped in at the 3978.16 week low in Asia and again near 3989 in NY, forming a range floor, but the bounce stalled at the 4029.82 week high, short of the 38.2% retracement. Tuesday's Asia session added a lower high at 4025.59, and a third day of USD firmness has pulled price back to the $4,000 psych pivot (also the weekly open), below ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 3,997.36, 3,978.16, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,011.00, 4,029.82, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 3997.36 day low and the 3978.16 week low exposes the 3975.70 3m low and would confirm a break of the range floor
Reclaiming ema20 near 4011, then a close above the 4029.82 week high, breaks the lower highs; the 4092 short cover trigger sits above
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today, and the FOMC on Wed at 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Tightening range 3975–4030 after Wed–Fri selloff; higher lows vs lower highs.
Last Wednesday's 4142 high gave way to a near-4% slide that bottomed at the 3-month low of 3975.70 into Friday's NY open, as oil-driven hike bets weighed. Since then H1 has compressed. Monday's Asia session week low at 3978.16 held, and US-Iran de-escalation headlines lifted price to a week high of 4029.82 in NY hours, just shy of the 38.2% fib of the selloff near 4039. Tuesday's Asia session printed a lower high at 4025.59 and a higher low at 4000.07. Price now sits below the ema20 with RSI(14) near 43, pinned just above the $4,000 psych level ahead of the FOMC.
Support: 4,000.00, 3,978.16, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,029.82, 4,039.30
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4000 psych and the higher-lows trendline exposes the week low at 3978.16 and the 3-month low at 3975.70
Recovery above the ema20 and a close through the 4029.82 week high would break the lower-highs line and bring the fib 38.2% at 4039 into view
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could move yields and test the range edges
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the December hike signal is the key channel
The dominant move came Wednesday through Friday. Gold fell from 4,142 to the 3,975.70 3-month low, with the final flush in Friday's NY session as oil-driven December hike bets built. Since the weekly open at 4,000.47 it has printed higher lows (3,978, then the 3,988.84 NY low, then 4,003.90 in Asia), while the Monday high at 4,029.82 and the 4,034 range top mark slightly lower highs. That leaves price coiled around EMA(20) and the 23.6% retrace of the Wednesday–Friday drop, with RSI(14) flat near 51.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,034 range top (38.2% retrace near 4,039) opens the thu swing hi at 4,048
Loss of the weekly open at 4,000.47 and the higher-lows line puts the 3,988.84 ny low and the 3,975.70 3-month low back in play
US durable goods 12:30 UTC and consumer confidence 14:00 UTC today, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
4,000–4,030 range with higher lows off the 3,976 low.
Gold's Wednesday–Friday slide from 4142 bottomed at the 3-month low of 3975.70 in Friday's NY session. Monday's Asia dip held 3978, and oil relief on US-Iran de-escalation hopes then lifted price back above the weekly open near 4000. Since then H1 has ranged 4000–4030 on a series of higher lows at 3989 and Tuesday's Asia low at 4004, with price just above EMA(20) and the 23.6% fib of the decline and RSI(14) near 54; the range top at 4030 has capped Friday and Monday highs and doubles as the neckline of a developing double bottom, with the 38.2% fib at 4039 just above.
Support: 4,004.00, 4,000.00, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,030.00, 4,039.30
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4030 range top confirms the double bottom and exposes the 38.2% fib at 4039
Break of the higher lows line, then the 4000 weekly open, puts the 3976 3-month low back in play
Durable Goods 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence 14:00 UTC today; FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Friday's low, capped below 4030.
The week decline ran from Wednesday's 4142 peak to the 3975.7 3m low, set during NY hours Friday. Since then H1 has printed higher lows at 3978 and 3989; the second came on a NY-open dip Monday that was bought back within the hour as US-Iran de-escalation hopes knocked oil lower. The rebound has stalled at the monday high of 4029.8, with the ema50 near 4021 overhead and the fib 38.2 at 4039 untested, while price sits just under EMA(20) near 4011 with RSI(14) flat around 47 in Tuesday's Asian range above 4004.
Support: 4,003.90, 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,021.10, 4,029.82, 4,039.30
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 4004 and the 4000 weekly open would break the higher-lows sequence
H1 close above the monday high at 4029.8 clears the consolidation cap and brings the fib 38.2 at 4039 into play
A break below the 3975.7 3m low resumes the week decline structure
US Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today, then Wednesday's 18:00 UTC FOMC, could materially shift this read
4004–4030 range above Friday/Monday lows; lower highs intact.
The dominant move in this window was a ~$166 slide from Wednesday's 4142 high to Friday's 3975.70 three-month low. Thursday's London and NY sessions did most of the damage as oil-driven hike fears hit gold. Since the weekly open at 4000.47, price has based above the 3978 monday low, and US-Iran de-escalation hopes lifted it back over 4000. The Monday NY dip to 3988.84 was fully reversed within the hour. Price now rotates between the 4004 asia low and the 4030 monday high around EMA(20) near 4012, with EMA(50) near 4021 and the 23.6% fib overhead. RSI(14) is flat near 49.
Support: 4,003.90, 4,000.47, 3,978.16
Resistance: 4,021.00, 4,029.82, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4030 monday high and 4034 friday high completes the double bottom and opens the 38.2% fib near 4039
Failure to hold the 4004 asia low and the 4000 weekly open returns focus to the 3975–3978 monday low area
A break of the higher-lows trendline from Monday's NY dip undercuts the base
Durable Goods at 12:30 UTC today and the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
3975–4034 range after Wed–Fri drop, higher lows since Monday.
Gold's slide from Wednesday's 4142.17 high ended at Friday's 3975.70 three-month low. Since Monday's Asia session, price has printed higher lows, and a NY-hours drop to the 3988.84 spike low was rejected within the hour as easing US-Iran tensions knocked oil lower. Price now sits on EMA(20) near 4011.6, below EMA(50) around 4022, with RSI(14) flat near 48. The rebound has stalled under the 4029.82 week high, beneath the 4034.26 range top and the 38.2% fib of the drop at ~4039.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,988.84, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,011.60, 4,029.82, 4,034.26
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4034.26 range top and the 38.2% fib near 4039 would end the 3975–4034 range read
Failure to hold the 4000.47 weekly open exposes the 3988.84 spike low and the 3-month low at 3975.70
A break of the higher lows trendline from Monday would negate the basing structure
Durable Goods (12:30 UTC) and Consumer Confidence (14:00 UTC) today, then FOMC Wed 18:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
00:05 UTC
Downtrend, basing near $4,000 · RSI 48 · price 4,006.26
Lower highs from 4142; 3976–4034 range since Friday.
The dominant move in this window was the Thursday–Friday slide from 4142 to the 3975.70 three-month low, as oil-driven hike fears hit gold, with the heaviest legs in Thursday's Asia session and Friday's NY session. Since then price has held a 3976–4034 range. Monday's Asia dip set a week low at 3978, and the NY-open flush to 3988.84 printed a higher low as US-Iran de-escalation hopes knocked oil lower, but the range top near 4030 and the 23.6% fib at 4015 capped the rebound. Price has drifted back to the weekly open around 4000, just below EMA(20) at 4012 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 48.
Support: 4,000.47, 3,988.84, 3,978.16
Resistance: 4,012.00, 4,029.82, 4,039.29
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the range top near 4030 opens the 38.2% fib of the slide at 4039 and then the 50% retracement near 4059
Failure to hold the weekly open and the 3988.84 higher low breaks the rising line of Monday's higher lows and exposes the 3978 week low and the 3975.70 three-month low
Repeated H1 closes below EMA(20) at 4012 keep the range read tilted toward its lower half
US Durable Goods Tue 12:30 UTC and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC could test the range edges ahead of the Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC