Higher lows intact; FOMC spike above Asia high faded back inside range.
Gold held the 3,978–3,989 lows above the week open through Monday and Tuesday's London session, then broke higher in Tuesday's NY session as lower oil fed a two-day rebound, extending to the 4,070 asia high by Wednesday's Asia open. The hawkish 10-2 Fed hold produced a two-way spike from 4,025 to the 4,082 fomc high that faded straight back below 4,070, a false break that leaves price sitting on the ema20 near 4,049 and the 38.2% level of the 3,989–4,082 fib leg, with RSI(14) flat near 49. Tuesday's London low, the 4,028 wed low and the 4,025 post-FOMC dip still form a rising trendline of higher lows, now near 4,030.
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 4,070 asia high would reopen the 4,082 fomc high and the 4,092 short-covering trigger cited in the digest
A break of the rising trendline and the 4,028 wed low would end the higher-low sequence and expose the 4,000 week open
Sustained trade below the ema20 near 4,049 with RSI(14) under 45 would mark the FOMC spike as a lower-high rejection
Core PCE, GDP and claims Thu 12:30 UTC (~13.5h) could materially shift this read
22:06 UTC
Uptrend, extended after the post-Fed spike · RSI 60 · price 4,065.72
Range break on Tuesday, higher lows since Monday, retest of the 4070 prior high.
Gold broke out of the 3975–4030 range during Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's Asia and London pullback held the 4028 swing low, near the 61.8% of the Tue–Wed impulse. The Fed decision bar whipsawed between 4025 and 4067, then the USD softened on Warsh's 'tightening is working' presser and the next two bars printed a 4082.67 fed high. Price now sits above the EMA20 (~4050) and EMA50 (~4039) with RSI(14) near 60, retesting the 4070 prior high that capped Tuesday and Wednesday's Asian session.
Support: 4,049.70, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,082.67
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4082.67 fed high opens the path to the 4092 level flagged for short-covering
Failure to hold the ema20 near 4050 shifts focus back to the 4028 swing low and the 61.8% of the Tue–Wed fib
A break below the 4028 swing low and the higher-lows trendline returns price to the prior range, with the 4000.47 weekly open beneath
Core PCE and GDP on Thu at 12:30 UTC (~14.5h) could materially shift this read
21:08 UTC
Uptrend since Tuesday, testing 4070 cap · RSI 61 · price 4,067.33
Higher lows from 3989; post-Fed spike through the 4070.75 prior high, close back below it.
Gold has printed higher lows since Tuesday's NY-session range break above 4030. The 3989–4082 impulse saw Wednesday's pullbacks hold a 4025–4028 swing low near its 61.8% level, and a higher-low line connects Tuesday's 3989 trough to the Fed-bar low. The Fed hold produced a two-way bar during NY hours, then the softer USD after Warsh's presser lifted price through the 4070.75 prior high to a 4082.67 fed high, but the close at 4067 sits back under that level. RSI(14) is near 61, with price above EMA(20) (~4048) and EMA(50) (~4038), and ATR has expanded sharply on the decision.
Support: 4,048.00, 4,025.08, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,082.67, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4070.75 prior high confirms the post-Fed breakout; clearing the 4082.67 fed high puts the 4100 round number in view
A slip back below the ema20 near 4048 shifts focus to the 4025 swing low and the higher-low line
A break of the 4025 swing low unwinds Tuesday's range break and reopens the 4000 weekly open
Core PCE and Q3 GDP on Thu 12:30 UTC (~15.5h) could materially shift this read
Higher lows from 3978; presser spike breaks Wednesday's 4025-4071 range top.
Gold has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 3978. Tuesday's NY-session impulse from 3989 did most of the work, and Wednesday's 4025-4071 range held above the rising higher-lows trendline. The FOMC bar swung $42 both ways, then the Warsh presser bar closed through the 4070.75 prior high and set a week high at 4082, with RSI(14) near 66 and price well clear of EMA(20) around 4050. The digest still reads the 10-2 hold as hawkish, so this break is presser-driven and has not yet been retested.
Support: 4,070.75, 4,050.00, 4,025.08
Resistance: 4,082.09, 4,092.00, 4,100.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close back below the 4070.75 prior high would mark the presser spike as a false break inside Wednesday's range
Clearance of the 4082 week high exposes 4092, the cited level for CTA short-covering, then the 4100 round number
A pullback holding the ema20 near 4050 keeps the higher-lows sequence intact
Loss of the 4025 fomc low, which aligns with the Tuesday impulse fib 61.8%, breaks the higher-lows trendline
Core PCE and Q3 GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~16.5h) could materially shift this read
19:05 UTC
Rebound stalled, rolling over post-FOMC · RSI 45 · price 4,034.73
4025–4070 range under the week high; FOMC spike rejected.
Tuesday's NY-session rally off 3989, tied in the digest to lower oil, ran to a week high at 4070.75 early Wednesday. Asia and London then faded it back to the 50% retrace near 4028. The FOMC hold spiked price to 4067.52, just under the week high, and was rejected. That bar printed the fomc low at 4025.08 and closed near 4033, below EMA(20) at 4042 and flat to EMA(50), with RSI(14) back at 45 from the low 70s on Tuesday.
Support: 4,025.08, 4,000.47, 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,042.10, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
H1 close below the fomc low at 4025 and the 50% retrace opens the week open near 4000; the 3m low at 3975.70 sits below that
Reclaim of EMA(20) at 4042 returns the read to the 4025–4070 range, with the week high at 4070.75 the cap
Core PCE and GDP Thu 12:30 UTC (~17.5h) could materially shift this read; Warsh presser fallout is still in play before then
Double bottom breakout capped at week high; tightening 4028–4060 range.
The week opened at 4000.47 and chopped either side of $4,000 until Tuesday's NY session. An oil-driven rally then cleared 4030 and completed a double bottom off the 3975.70/3978.16 week low area. Asia's push to the 4070.75 week high met rejection near the $4,070 support-turned-resistance. Wednesday has rotated between the 4028 wed low, which held at the 50% fib of Tuesday's rally, and a 4060 lower high. Price now sits just below EMA(20) near 4043 with RSI(14) flat around 47 as the FOMC decision lands.
Support: 4,028.10, 4,000.47, 3,978.16
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 GMT could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 4028 wed low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 50% fib, and leaves the 4000 week open exposed
An H1 close above the 4060 lower high and the 4070.75 week high would invalidate the rejection read, with $4,092 above
Loss of the 4000 week open puts the 3978 week low and the double bottom base back in play
Thursday 12:30 GMT core PCE could shift the read again after the Fed
Higher lows since Friday's 3975 low; lower highs capping today.
Gold held 3990–4030 after Friday's drop to 3975. A NY-session Tuesday impulse from 3989 then broke it higher, with easing oil offsetting a firm USD. That impulse was rejected at the 4070.75 week high in early Wednesday trade, and the London-open dip found demand at the 4028 Wed low, near the 50% retracement. A lower high at 4060 and today's NY low at 4036 now leave price coiling just below EMA(20) near 4046 but above EMA(50), with RSI(14) cooled to around 49 from Tuesday's stretched readings.
Support: 4,036.06, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,046.00, 4,060.14, 4,070.75
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 GMT and the 18:30 GMT press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4060 lower high and the 4070.75 week high breaks the descending cap from this week's peak
Loss of the 4036 NY low and then the 4028 Wed low exposes the 4000 weekly open and the 3975 low
Thursday 12:30 GMT core PCE is the next scheduled risk to the range
Higher lows Mon-Tue, lower highs since Wed's 4070.75 peak.
Gold made higher lows at 3978 and 3989 early in the week. Tuesday's NY-session impulse then ran to the 4070.75 week high in Wednesday's Asia session as oil eased on US-Iran diplomacy, but the move was rejected there and a lower high at 4060 followed into NY hours as the dollar firmed. Price sits just below EMA(20) near 4046 but above EMA(50), holding the 38.2% retracement of Tuesday's impulse around 4040 with RSI(14) back at 46, and the wed low at 4028 near the 50% level is the nearest floor above the 4000 weekly open.
Support: 4,028.07, 4,000.47, 3,978.16
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 GMT and press conference at 18:30 GMT, two hours out, could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4028 wed low exposes the 4000 weekly open and the 3978 week low
H1 close above the 4060 lower high and the 4070.75 week high breaks the lower-high sequence, with 4092 (the TD trigger for CTA short-covering) beyond
Thursday 12:30 GMT core PCE is the next scheduled risk for the range
Higher lows since Monday, lower high printed Wednesday at 4060.
Gold opened the week at 4000.47 and built higher lows off Monday's 3978 low. The Tuesday impulse came in the NY session as oil eased, tagging a 4070.75 week high in early Asia before stalling at the former 4070 support, and Wednesday's Asia slide retraced about 50% of that move to the 4028 wed low. London lifted price to a lower high at 4060, and NY has faded it back under EMA(20), leaving it just above the EMA50 near 4036 with RSI(14) flat at ~50 in a pre-FOMC consolidation.
Support: 4,036.20, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4028 wed low breaks the higher-low trendline and the 50% fib, putting the 4000 week open back in play
Close above the 4060 lower high reopens the 4070.75 week high; acceptance above it brings the 4091.73 thu high, near TD's cited 4092 trigger, into view
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) is the next scheduled risk after FOMC
Higher lows since Monday, lower highs off 4070.75.
Gold has printed higher lows since Monday's 3978 week low. The dominant leg came during Tuesday's NY session as easing oil cooled hike fears, before Asia hours today set the 4070.75 week high and a rejection there sent London down to 4028 (wed low), just shy of the 50% retracement of Tuesday's leg. Price is now compressing between the lower high at 4060 and the rising trendline near the 38.2% fib around 4040, sitting just above EMA(20) with RSI(14) near 48 ahead of the Fed.
Support: 4,039.60, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below 4028.07 (wed low) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 4000 week open
H1 close above 4070.75 (week high) opens the path to the 4091.73 prior high
Loss of the rising trendline near the 38.2% fib at ~4040 shifts the compression toward the lower boundary
Thursday core PCE at 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk after the FOMC
Higher lows since Monday; pullback held 50% fib of Tuesday impulse.
Gold has printed higher lows since Monday's 4000.47 weekly open. The dominant leg came in Tuesday's NY session, when easing oil lifted price from 3989 to a 4070.75 week high in early Asia, right at support-turned-resistance near 4070. The rejection there led to a London-open pullback that held the 50% fib of that impulse near 4028, and price has since reclaimed EMA(20) to retest the 4060 london high, with RSI(14) back near 52 after Tuesday's overbought push.
Support: 4,044.00, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,060.14, 4,070.75, 4,092.49
What it said to watch
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4070.75 week high opens the path to the 4092 prior high
Loss of the 4044 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 4028 and the higher-lows trendline
H1 close below 4028 breaks the higher-low sequence, with the weekly open near 4000 next
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE could reshape the post-Fed structure
Higher lows since Monday, first lower high at 4058.
Gold rebounded from Monday's Asia-session 3978 week low. The decisive leg came through Tuesday's London-NY transition, as easing oil lifted price through the 4030 range top to a 4070.75 week high in early Wednesday Asia trade. Wednesday's pullback held the 4028 wed low, a retest of that broken range top near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday rally, while the London-open bounce stalled at 4058 for a first lower high, with price now sitting on EMA(20) near 4044, EMA(50) at 4035 and RSI(14) easing to 54 from 77 at Tuesday's peak.
Support: 4,043.80, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75, 4,092.49
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4028 wed low breaks the higher-lows trendline and the range-top retest, exposing the 4000 week open
Close above the 4058 lower high reopens the 4070 week high; acceptance above it brings the 4092 prior high into view
Fed decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC follows
11:04 UTC
Rebound from week low, momentum fading under 4070 · RSI 52 · price 4,044.50
Higher lows since Tuesday; lower high at 4058 below the 4070.8 week high.
Gold held a 3978–4030 range through Monday and early Tuesday, then broke higher into Tuesday's NY session as easing oil cooled inflation fears, printing a 4070.8 week high in Wednesday's Asia session. The pullback found demand at the 4028 Wed low, which is the 50% fib of the 3989–4070 leg and the old range top, keeping the sequence of higher lows intact. London's bounce stalled at a 4058 lower high, leaving price pinned on EMA(20) near 4044 with RSI(14) back to ~52 as the USD firms ahead of the Fed.
Support: 4,028.10, 4,000.50, 3,978.20
Resistance: 4,058.20, 4,070.80
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4058 lower high and the 4070.8 week high clears Wednesday's cap; 4092 is the next level flagged in the digest
Failure to hold the 4028 Wed low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4000.5 weekly open
Loss of the 4000.5 weekly open puts the 3978.2 week low back in play
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE can reprice December hike odds regardless of the FOMC tone
Higher lows since Monday; London-open dip held 50% of Tuesday leg.
Gold has printed higher lows since Monday's Asia-session low at 3978. In Tuesday's NY session it broke through Monday's 4030 high and ran to a 4070.75 week high in Wednesday Asia trade as oil eased, despite a firm USD. The London-open pullback held the 4028 wed low, which sits on Monday's high and the 50% retrace of the Tuesday leg. Price has since reclaimed EMA(20) near 4044 with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s, and today's 4058 session high is the nearest cap below the week high.
Support: 4,044.00, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the 4028 wed low breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 4000 weekly open
Close above the 4070.75 week high opens the 4092 prior high, the level flagged for CTA short-covering
Repeated failure at the 4058 session high keeps price boxed between EMA(20) and the week high into the Fed
Thursday 12:30 UTC Core PCE is the next scheduled risk after the FOMC
Range breakout above 4030, retest held, lower high pending.
Gold broke out of the 3990–4030 range during Tuesday's NY session. That move completed a double bottom off the 3978/3989 lows as easing oil outweighed a firm USD, and it ran to a week high of 4070.75 in early Asia today. The Asia-session pullback met demand at the 4028 retest low, near the 50% of Tuesday's impulse and EMA(50), and the London open bounce has reclaimed EMA(20) near 4043 with RSI(14) back near 59, leaving the 4058 London high as the first cap below the week high.
Support: 4,043.00, 4,028.07, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,058.24, 4,070.75, 4,091.73
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 4028 retest low breaks the higher-lows trendline and reopens the 4000 weekly open
A close above the 4070.75 week high exposes Thursday's 4092 prior high, the digest's CTA short-covering level
Rejection at the 4058 London high would leave a lower high beneath the week high and keep EMA(20) at 4043 in play
08:04 UTC
Uptrend off the week low, pulling back · RSI 54 · price 4,044.61
Tuesday range break, retest of former 4030 range top.
Gold broke the Monday–Tuesday 3978–4030 range during Tuesday's NY session as oil eased. It reached a 4070.75 week high in Wednesday's Asia session before a firm USD into the FOMC pulled it back to a 4028 Wednesday low, retesting the former range top near the 50% fib of the 3989–4071 leg. Price has since bounced to sit just above the ema20 (~4041) with RSI(14) near 54, and the higher lows from Monday's 3978 remain intact above the 4000 weekly open, while the Tuesday shelf at 4054–4065 caps the rebound below the week high.
Support: 4,041.00, 4,028.00
Resistance: 4,056.00, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
Fed decision at 18:00 UTC and the 18:30 UTC press conference could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 4028 wed low reopens the 4000 weekly open and the higher-lows trendline
Failure to reclaim the 4056 tue shelf leaves a lower high under the 4071 week high
Close above the 4071 week high exposes the 4092 prior high from last Thursday
Core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled risk after the Fed
Range break now retesting range top; higher lows since Monday.
Tuesday's Tuesday impulse came in the NY session and broke the 3978–4030 range that had held since the week opened near the 4000 psych. It carried price to a 4070.75 week high in Asia, with falling oil the driver per the digest. That gain has since been unwound through the Asia session and into London open as the dollar firms at two-week highs ahead of FOMC, putting price back at the 4030 range top and below EMA(20) near 4039. RSI(14) has slipped to ~42 from mid-70s at the high, and price now sits at the 50% retracement of the 3989–4070 Tuesday impulse, with the fib 61.8 at 4020 just beneath.
Support: 4,020.30, 4,000.00, 3,978.16
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,102.81
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh press conference at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close below the fib 61.8 at 4020 would mark the range break as a false break and open a return to the 4000 psych
Loss of the Monday–Tuesday higher lows line near 3997, then the 3978.16 week low, exposes the 3975.7 three-month low
Recovery above EMA(20) at 4039 and a retake of the 4070.75 week high brings the 4092 short-covering area and the Thursday high at 4102.8 back into view
Thursday 12:30 UTC core PCE is the next scheduled risk after the Fed
06:05 UTC
Recovery from 3978 week low, now pulling back · RSI 44 · price 4,030.60
Mon–Tue 3989–4030 range broken higher; retesting range top.
Gold spent Monday and early Tuesday boxed between 3989 and 4030 above the weekly open, then broke out in Tuesday's NY session as oil slid on US-Iran de-escalation hopes. That leg tagged the 4070.75 week high in the Asia session. Since then a run of lower highs has taken price back to the 50% fib of that impulse near 4030, which is also the old range top. Price is now below the ema20 near 4040 and sitting on EMA(50), with RSI(14) slipping to 44 as USD firms at two-week highs ahead of the Fed.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,020.30
Resistance: 4,040.30, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 61.8% fib at 4020 puts the breakout in doubt and brings the weekly open and the 4000 psych level back into view
A loss of the higher lows line from 3978/3989 would break this week's recovery structure
Reclaiming the ema20 and the lower-highs line near 4040 reopens the week high at 4070.75
Above the week high, the prior high at 4092 (Thursday's high and TD's short-covering level) is the next reference
Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE (f/c 0.3% m/m) is follow-through risk for the post-FOMC read
05:05 UTC
Range breakout, now pulling back · RSI 48 · price 4,036.34
Higher lows from 3978; Tuesday break of 4030 range top being retested.
Monday and Tuesday held a 3978–4030 range above last Friday's 3975 low. Easing oil then drove a NY-session breakout on Tuesday that carried price to a 4070.75 week high in Asia. Asia hours today have unwound about half of that leg as the dollar pressed two-week highs into FOMC, and price has slipped below EMA(20) near 4042 with RSI(14) back to ~48. The pullback is now testing the 4030 breakout zone, where the 50% fib of the Tuesday leg and EMA(50) near 4029 converge.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.47, 3,978.16
Resistance: 4,042.00, 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4030 breakout zone puts price back inside the prior range, with the 4000.47 weekly open and 4000 psych next
Loss of the 3978 week low breaks the higher lows sequence from Monday and Tuesday
Recovery above EMA(20) and the 4070.75 week high would reopen the 4092 prior high
FOMC decision 18:00 UTC and Warsh press conference 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Core PCE follows Thu 12:30 UTC
04:04 UTC
Rebound from week low, pullback in progress · RSI 55 · price 4,043.15
Range break higher, retracing toward breakout base.
Gold was boxed between 3978 and 4030 through Monday and Tuesday's London session, around the 4000.47 weekly open. It broke out in Tuesday's NY session as oil eased on US-Iran talk hopes, running to the 4065 Tuesday high even as the USD firmed. Today's Asia session printed a week high at 4070.75 before a rejection pulled price back to 4043, where it sits on EMA(20) and the 38.2% retrace of the Tuesday low to week high leg, with RSI(14) cooled to about 55 from overbought on Tuesday and EMA(50) near 4033 marking the top of the breakout base.
Support: 4,033.00, 4,000.47, 3,989.15
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read
H1 close back above the 4070.75 week high reopens the 4092 CTA trigger zone flagged into the Fed
Failure to hold EMA(50) near 4033 exposes the 50% retrace near 4030 and the 4000 weekly open
Loss of the Tuesday low at 3989 breaks the higher-lows line and negates the range break
03:05 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pulling back to ema20 · RSI 57 · price 4,046.07
Range break above 4030, higher lows Mon–Tue, Asia pullback from week high.
Gold spent Monday and early Tuesday rotating between 3978 and 4030 around the 4000.5 weekly open, before a NY-session breakout on Tuesday carried it to 4065 as oil eased, despite firmer USD and the durable goods beat, with RSI(14) tagging the mid-70s. A tight 4054–4065 consolidation followed, and Wednesday's Asia session has slipped from the 4070.75 week high to 4045, sitting on EMA(20) with RSI back near 57. The old range top at 4030 lines up with the 50% retracement of the Tuesday impulse, and the higher lows from the Monday and Tuesday lows still hold beneath it.
Support: 4,030.00, 4,000.50
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
H1 close back below the 4030 range top puts price inside the Monday–Tuesday range and negates the breakout
Clearance of the 4070.75 week high exposes the 4092 cta trigger flagged for CTA short-covering
FOMC decision at 18:00 UTC and the Warsh presser at 18:30 UTC today could materially shift this read
Loss of the 4000.5 weekly open and the higher lows trendline near 3990 reopens the 3978 Monday low
From Friday through Tuesday's London session, gold held a 3,975–4,030 range. Lows at 3,975.70 and 3,978.16 formed a base. Tuesday's NY session then broke above the 4,029.82 monday high and ran to 4,065 as WTI eased on Middle East talk hopes, even with the USD firm. Asia has since faded the 4,070.75 week high back to the asia low near 4,045, with EMA(20) at ~4,044 just beneath and RSI(14) cooling to ~56 from the low 70s.
Support: 4,029.82, 4,000.47
Resistance: 4,070.75, 4,092.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4029.82 monday high (50% fib of Tuesday's leg) returns price to the old range and reopens the 4000.47 weekly open
Holding the asia low and EMA(20) keeps the range break intact; a close above the 4070.75 week high opens the 4092 thu shelf, the flagged CTA short-covering trigger
FOMC decision Wed 18:00 UTC and presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC follows
Break of the higher lows line from 3978 to 3989 would negate the double bottom base
Mon–Tue range broken higher in NY; tight consolidation below week high.
After Thursday's slide and Friday's $3,975 three-month low, gold spent Monday and Tuesday in a 3,978–4,030 range around the 4,000 weekly open. It broke the range top during Tuesday's NY session as oil eased on US-Iran talk hopes, a $70 impulse off the 3,989 Tuesday low that held even as the USD firmed. Price has since compressed between the 4,054 flag low and the 4,070.75 week high through Asia, with EMA(20) rising toward 4,044 and RSI(14) easing from overbought to the mid-60s.
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4,070.75 week high opens Thursday's breakdown pivot at 4,091.7, the TD-flagged CTA trigger
Loss of the 4,054 flag low exposes the 4,030 range top, which aligns with the 50% fib of Tuesday's rally
Failure back below the 3,989 Tuesday low breaks the rising trendline off Monday's low
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; Thu 12:30 UTC core PCE is the follow-through test
After Friday's NY-session flush to 3975.70, gold based in a 3978–4030 range through Monday. It broke higher Tuesday as WTI eased on US-Iran talk hopes, lifting from 3989 at London open and accelerating at the NY open through the range top near 4030, even as the USD firmed. Since then price has held a narrow 4054–4066 consolidation under the week high, with RSI(14) near 68 cooling from the impulse and the prior pivot at 4091.70, Thursday's lower high, sitting just above.
Support: 4,054.30, 4,030.00, 4,000.50
Resistance: 4,065.70, 4,091.70
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4065.70 week high exposes the 4091.70 prior pivot, which lines up with the flagged 4092 CTA short-covering trigger
Loss of the 4054 consol low puts the 4030 range top and the 38.2–50% retracement zone (4036–4027) in focus as a retest
Return below the 4000.50 weekly open would undo the range break and expose the 3975–3989 higher lows
Fed decision Wed 18:00 UTC and Warsh presser 18:30 UTC could materially shift this read; core PCE Thu 12:30 UTC follows