21:07 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs since late August · RSI 38 · price 4,006.10
LH/LL chain from the Aug high; October range broke lower to a 3-month low.
Gold has carved lower highs since the 25 Aug high at 4696.74, with a descending lower-high line from 4510.88 capping every rally through September and October, and price is now below a falling EMA(50). The four-week range between the 4066 range floor and the 4227 range top gave way on 22 Oct as WTI above $100 lifted Fed hike pricing, and the move printed a 3-month low at 3975.7. Price has held near 4000 for three sessions since then, with RSI near 38, soft but not oversold.
Support: 3,975.70
Resistance: 4,145.90, 4,227.28
What it said to watch
- FOMC decision and Warsh presser on 28 Oct, then core PCE on 29 Oct, could materially shift this read
- A D1 close back above the 4066 range floor would mark the October breakdown as a false break
- Failure to hold the 3975.7 3-month low exposes the 3942 summer low from late June
- Fib 23.6% at 4146 and the lower-high line near 4110 sit overhead; a daily close above both would break the LH chain
- Range top at 4227 is the upper boundary of the October structure