Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510.88 peak, with the lower-highs trendline from 4399.53 capping every rally. The 4235–4400 range held for two weeks, but the range floor at 4235 gave way at Monday's open. The move came with the yield-driven liquidation as the US 10y hit 5.27% and October hike bets built, taking price to a 4110.84 swing low, the lowest since early August. ATR(14) has expanded to roughly 3800 pips on the breakdown, and RSI near 24 is oversold with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,235.03, 4,255.19, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4235 range floor would put price back inside the prior range
Loss of 4095 key support exposes the 4000 round number
Any bounce that stalls at or below the fib 50% at 4255 leaves the lower-high sequence intact
A break above the 4315.66 lower high and the lower-highs trendline would negate the downtrend read
JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tue and ADP on Wed could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs since 4510.88; three-week floor at 4235-4254 broken.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs from 4510.88 down to the 4315.66 lower high. Monday's gap lower broke the three-week broken floor at 4235-4254 and ran to a 4110.84 swing low, with 10y yields above 5% and firming October Fed hike odds driving the move. RSI(14) near 26 is oversold, ATR(14) around 3,960 pips is expanding rather than compressing, and the 61.8% fib of the 4316-4111 leg sits right at the broken floor, with price well below both EMA20 and EMA50 in bearish alignment.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,235.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
An H4 close back above the 4235 broken floor would turn Monday's breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 4110.84 swing low opens the path toward the 4000 round number
A reclaim of the 4315.66 lower high would break the lower-high line sequence
Fed's Cook today, then Tuesday's JOLTS (f/c 7.23M) and the Waller/Williams Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
PCE and NFP later in the week add event risk to the oversold stretch
13:04 UTC
Downtrend, extending after range break · RSI 27 · price 4,147.77
Lower highs since 4510.88; 4235-4254 range floor broken.
Lower highs run from the 4510.88 early-month peak through the 4399.53 swing high and the 4315.66 lower high. The 4235-4254 range floor held three times over two weeks, then gave way on the Monday open, and price has extended to a 4140.72 swing low. The move lines up with ~70% October hike odds and US 10y yields above 5%. EMA20 sits below EMA50, RSI(14) near 27 is oversold, and ATR(14) is expanding off the break.
Support: 4,140.72, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,240.00, 4,315.66, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4240 range floor (also near the 38.2% fib) would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 4140.72 swing low exposes the 4100 round number
A recovery that stalls below the lower-high trendline near 4315.66 keeps the lower-high sequence intact; a close above the 4399.53 swing high breaks it
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC today and JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M) could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4510; September range floor broken.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 4510.88 early-month peak, capped by a descending lower-highs line. The 4235–4400 September range gave way at Monday's open, taking price to a fresh swing low at 4150.94 as hawkish Fedspeak, ~70% October hike odds and 10y yields above 5% lifted the USD. RSI is oversold near 28 while ATR(14) expands to roughly 3750 pips, trend-extension behaviour rather than compression, with price below both EMAs and the EMA20 well under the EMA50.
Support: 4,150.94, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,235.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) today could materially shift this read via October hike pricing
H4 close back above 4200 psych, then the 4235–4244 range floor (38.2% of the Wed high fib), would turn the breakdown into a false break
Failure to hold the 4150.94 swing low exposes the 4100 psych level
A move through the 4315.66 lower high breaks the lower-highs sequence
JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC (f/c 7.23M), then PCE and NFP later in the week, are event risk for the trend
Lower highs since 4510; 4244-4316 range broken lower.
Gold has printed a sequence of lower highs since the 4510 early-month peak. A descending trendline off that high has capped rallies at 4399 and 4376, and supply was again evident at the 4315 lower high last week after hawkish Fed pricing (~70% October hike odds, US 10y above 5%) drove the rejection. This week's open broke the 4244-4254 range floor and the 4235 prior low, then slipped under the 4200 psych level to a new low at 4191. ATR(14) is expanding on the break, price sits below both EMAs with EMA20 under EMA50, and RSI near 31 is approaching oversold.
Support: 4,191.46
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,235.03
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4235 prior low would mark the move as a false break of the range
Holding below the 4200 psych level keeps the break intact. Failure at the 4191 new low extends the lower-low sequence
Rebounds into the fib 50% near 4295 and the 4315 lower high test the descending trendline zone. A close above 4315 breaks the lower-high structure
Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read. Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) is also in play
Gold has printed a clean lower-high sequence from the 4510 early-window peak, and the lower-high trendline off that high now sits near 4334. Last week's hawkish Fed repricing and 10y yields above 5% drove the slide from the 4376 weekly high, but demand has stepped in repeatedly across 4235-4255, and price has compressed into a 4244-4300 range with the 4300 pivot capping five consecutive H4 highs. Price trades below both EMA20 and EMA50, and ATR(14) near 3,240 pips is well below the early-window expansion, a sign of compression ahead of the range edges.
Support: 4,244.29, 4,235.03
Resistance: 4,300.00, 4,315.66, 4,376.03
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4244 swing low and the 4235 window low extends the lower-low sequence out of the range
H4 close above the 4300 pivot and the 4316 lower high opens the lower-high trendline near 4334 and the 61.8% fib at 4340
Only a reclaim of the 4376 weekly high breaks the lower-high structure
Wed ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) are the main range-break risk; JOLTS and Fedspeak on Tue could shift the read earlier