Lower highs intact; tight early-Asia range above twin lows.
Monday's yield-driven liquidation took gold from 4266 to twin lows at 4110.84/4111.33 during NY hours, the second set just before the daily close. Early Tuesday Asia is holding a tight 4118–4129 Asian range, with the Asian high sitting near the 50% fib of the 4148–4111 leg, just under the lower-highs trendline. Price is marginally below EMA20 and RSI(14) is near 44, with no momentum extreme.
Support: 4,118.08, 4,111.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,129.00, 4,141.70, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4129 Asian high and the lower-highs trendline puts the 4141.7 lower high and the 4148 NY spike high back in focus
Loss of the 4118 Asian low exposes the 4111 twin lows; a break there extends the downtrend toward the 4095 next support
Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs from 4148; early Asia bounce inside 4118–4129.
Monday's yield-driven liquidation took gold from 4266 to the monday low at 4110.84, and the late-NY drop tested that area again at 4111.33. Early Asia session has bounced to an asia high at 4129, near the 50% retrace of the late-NY drop, with price holding just above EMA20 and below EMA50 and RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 4,118.08, 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,129.00, 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4129 asia high and the lower-high trendline near 4141.7 challenges the lower-high sequence toward the 4148 ny spike hi
Failure to hold the 4118 asia low exposes the 4110.84 monday low; a break there opens the 4095 floor cited in the digest
Tue Fed's Musalem 11:30 UTC and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the 10y yield
Lower highs from 4171; flat base near 4111 in early Asia.
Gold slid from the 4268 open to a 4110.84 NY low as the 10y yield spike drove liquidation. The 4148 spike high was rejected and each bounce since has printed a lower high. Early Asia is holding the 4111 session low but remains capped by the 4126.6 reopen high, near the 38.2% fib of the last leg.
Support: 4,111.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,126.60, 4,134.10, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4126.6 reopen high and the descending trendline near 4133 (61.8% fib at 4134) breaks the lower-high chain
Loss of the 4111 session low confirms a lower low and exposes 4095 key support
Spike high at 4148.2 is the upper boundary of the post-NY bounce structure
Musalem 11:30 UTC, JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Tue Fedspeak run could reprice yields and shift this read
Lower highs off 4148 NY high; tight Asia range above 4110.8.
Monday's yield-driven liquidation on the 5.27% US 10y took gold from 4266 to a 4110.8 day low in NY. The late-NY retest near 4111.3 held, and early Asia is drifting inside 4118–4126.6, below both EMAs, with the lower-highs line off the 4148 NY high intact.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,126.61, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
Break below the 4110.8 day low exposes the 4095 zone
Close above the 4126.6 asia high (38.2% fib) opens a test of the lower-highs line near 4141
Reclaiming the 4148 ny high negates the lower-high sequence
Tue Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
22:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 41 · price 4,124.73
Lower highs since NY session, session low 4110.84 tapped twice.
Monday's yield-driven liquidation, with the US 10y at 5.27% and October hike bets building, took gold from 4271 to a 4110.84 session low in NY. The rebound was rejected at the 61.8% fib of the NY drop (4148), and the lower-high sequence held into the close. Early Asia session is building a small range above the twice-tested session low, with the Asia high at 4126.6 capping so far.
Support: 4,111.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,126.61, 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111 session low confirms a lower low and exposes the 4095 zone
Break above the 4126.6 Asia high shifts the Asian range higher but leaves the lower-high sequence intact
Close above the 4141.7 lower high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday downtrend read
Tuesday JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and the Fedspeak slate could materially shift this read later in the session
Lower highs 4171/4160/4148 through Monday; 4111 low retested, early Asia bounce capped near 4126.
The yield-driven liquidation took gold from 4271 at Monday's open to a 4110.84 session low in NY. It printed lower highs at 4171, 4160 and the 4148 swing high, and the session low was retested at 4111.33 late in NY. Early Asia has bounced to an asia high of 4126.6, stalling at the 38.2% fib of the 4148–4111 leg, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,111.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,126.60, 4,141.70, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4111 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number and the 4095 zone
Recovery through the 4141.7 range top (61.8% fib area) and the 4148 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to clear the 4126.6 asia high keeps the 4111 session low in focus
Tue Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read, alongside US 10y vs 5.27%
22:18 UTC
Downtrend, early-Asia bounce off the lows · RSI 43 · price 4,122.99
Lower highs capping a retest of the 4111 day low.
Monday's yield-driven liquidation, with the US 10y at 5.27%, took gold from the 4271 gap-down open to a 4110.84 low in NY. Late-NY rebounds stalled at 4148.2, the rebound high at the 61.8% fib of the NY leg, and then at a 4141.7 lower high before price retested the day low near 4111 into the close. Early Asia has lifted price to 4123, still below EMA20 and the descending lower-highs trendline near 4135, with the 4128 flip zone overhead and RSI(14) at 43.
Support: 4,111.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,141.70, 4,148.20
What it said to watch
Break below the 4111 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number and the 4095 zone
M15 close above the lower-highs trendline and the 4141.7 lower high breaks the descending-high sequence; the 4148.2 rebound high sits just above
Acceptance back above the 4128 flip zone would mark the first higher high since the retest
Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain 4171/4148/4142, price back at session low.
Gold gapped lower from Friday's 4286 close and sold off through Asia and London as the US 10y pushed to 5.27%. The 17:15 UTC bounce stalled at 4148, the 61.8% fib of the 4171 ny high to 4110.84 leg. Late NY slipped out of the 4128–4142 range and is retesting the session low, RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,128.50, 4,148.17, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the SocGen 4095 zone
Recovery back above the 4128.5 range floor negates the late-NY breakdown
Close above 4148 (61.8% fib) breaks the lower-high chain; the 4171 ny high caps above that
Tue Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could shift this read; fresh 10y highs above 5.27% keep pressure on gold
Lower highs from 4148 grinding into the 4110.84 NY session low.
Monday's gap-lower open ran into a one-way selloff through Asia and London as the US 10y hit 5.27%. NY set a 4110.84 session low, and the bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib near 4148. Late NY has rolled over through a lower high at 4141.72, lost the 4131 range floor, and is back testing the session low with RSI(14) near 37.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,130.92, 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4095 zone flagged as support in the macro digest
Recovery above the 4131 range floor and the lower-high trendline near 4142 would break the late-NY descent
Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
21:32 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower after close · RSI 32 · price 4,115.03
Lower highs from 4148 bounce, retesting session low.
Gold slid through Asia, London and NY on yield-driven liquidation as the US 10y hit 5.27%. The NY bounce off the 4110.84 session low met rejection at 4148.17, the bounce high and the 61.8% fib of the 4171 to 4110 drop. A lower high at 4141.72 followed, and price has bled back to the session low after the NY close.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4095 zone
Close above the lower-high trendline and 4141.72 breaks the post-bounce sequence
Rejection at the 4148.17 bounce high again keeps the 61.8% fib as the cap
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence Tue 14:00 UTC, plus Musalem, Williams and Waller Fedspeak, could materially shift this read
Lower highs since 4171; late-NY retest of the 4110.84 low.
Monday gapped lower and sold through Asia and London as the US 10y pushed to 5.27%, printing a 4110.84 session low in the first hour of NY. The bounce stalled at the 61.8% fib near 4148, and a descending trendline of lower highs has since driven a late-NY retest of the session low, with RSI(14) near 40 holding above its earlier trough for a tentative bullish divergence.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,129.30, 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4141.72 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the lower-high sequence
Recovery back above the 4129.3 breakdown level is the first sign the retest is holding
Loss of the 4110.84 session low exposes the 4095 zone and voids the RSI divergence on a lower RSI low
Tue Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) and JOLTS 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4148 bounce, retesting session low.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open and sold off through London and NY as the US 10y hit 5.27% on October hike bets, printing a session low at 4110.84 at 14:45 UTC. The afternoon bounce stalled at the 4148.17 bounce high. A lower-high sequence at 4146.6 and 4141.7 then gave way below the 4123.7 breakdown level late in NY, and price is retesting the session low with RSI(14) near 34.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,123.70, 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low opens the 4095 key support zone
Recovery above the 4123.7 breakdown level, then the 4141.7 lower high, breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the downtrend read
Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) and JOLTS (14:00 UTC), with yields at 5.27%, could materially shift this read
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, pressing the day low into the close · RSI 29 · price 4,113.37
Lower highs since the NY bounce; late-NY drift back to the session low.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open and sold off through London and NY as the US 10y yield pushed to 5.27%. The day low printed at 4110.84 during NY hours. The NY bounce high at 4148.17 was followed by a lower high at 4141.72, and late-NY selling has drifted back to test the day low with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,123.70, 4,141.72, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
A close below the 4110.84 day low exposes the 4100 round number and the 4095 key support zone
Recovery back above the 4123.7 minor pivot eases immediate pressure on the low
Close above the 4141.72 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline; the 4148.17 NY bounce high sits just above
Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS/Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Late-NY slide from the 4131–4141 range back toward the session low.
Gold extended Monday's oil- and yield-driven slide. NY printed a 4110.84 session low, and two bounces then stalled at a 4147.5 lower high on the 61.8% fib of the 4171–4111 drop. Late-NY price lost the 4131 range floor and is retesting the session low with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,131.00, 4,147.50
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 psych level
Recovery back above the 4131 range floor would stall the late-NY leg
A move above the 4147.5 lower high breaks the descending trendline and the 61.8% fib cap
Tue JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and the Fedspeak cluster from 11:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower-high chain from 4171.29; 4131 range floor broken, price back near session low.
Gold gapped lower at the Sunday open and sold off without pause through Asia and London as oil-driven Fed hike bets and 5%+ yields weighed. During NY hours it was rejected near 4171 and set the session low at 4110.84. The Iran sanctions-easing headline spike stalled at the 61.8% fib (4148), and price has since slipped below the 4131 range floor to 4122, with RSI(14) near 41.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,130.92, 4,148.17
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4110.84 session low confirms a fresh lower-low toward the 4100 round number and SocGen's 4095
Recovery above the 4131 range floor and the lower-high trendline near 4141 would break the lower-high chain
Tue JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and the Fedspeak cluster through Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold opened with a weekend gap lower and slid from 4271 to the 4110.84 NY low as oil-driven Fed hike bets and 5%+ US yields drove the selling. The recovery stalled at 4148.17, the bounce high and 61.8% of the NY drop fib. Since then a lower high at 4141.72 has formed, and price is now leaning on the 4126 range low after London close.
Support: 4,126.16, 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,141.72, 4,148.17, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4126.16 range low reopens the NY low at 4110.84, with the socgen level at 4095 next
Close above the 4141.72 lower high breaks the descending line and puts the 4148.17 bounce high back in play
Reclaiming the 4171.29 NY high would negate the lower-high sequence
Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4171; late-NY coil 4131–4142 above session low.
Gold gapped lower from Friday's 4286 close and bled through Asia and London as oil-driven Fed hike bets and 5%+ yields pressed. NY printed a session low at 4110.84, and the 4148.17 lower high capped the rebound at the 61.8% fib. Late NY is coiling between the 4130.92 range low and 4141.72 range high, around the 38.2% level, with RSI(14) near 47 and price pinned at EMA20.
Support: 4,130.92, 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,141.72, 4,148.17, 4,160.61
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4130.92 range low exposes the 4126.16 swing low and the 4110.84 session low
Break of the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward SocGen's 4095 support
Close above the 4148.17 lower high (61.8% fib) opens the 4160.61 NY high and shifts the read to a deeper retracement
Tue Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines pulling oil lower are the main wildcard for the next Asia session
Lower highs vs higher lows since NY session low, tight late-NY range.
A weekend gap down from 4286 led into a one-way Asia-London slide. The NY-open drop, driven by 5%+ yields and October hike bets, printed a 4110.8 session low. Late NY is compressing between a 4141.7 range high and 4130.9 range low, with lower highs capping from 4160.6 and 4148.2 and a higher low at 4126.2. Price sits just below EMA20, near the 38.2% of the NY drop fib.
Support: 4,130.90, 4,126.20, 4,110.80
Resistance: 4,141.70, 4,148.20, 4,160.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4130.9 range low and 4126.2 higher low reopens the 4110.8 session low, with 4095 support beyond
Close above the 4141.7 range high and the lower-highs line exposes the 4148.2 spike high at the 61.8% of the NY drop fib; 4160.6 NY high above that
US-Iran sanctions-relief headlines in thin Asia hours, then Tuesday Fedspeak from 11:30 UTC and JOLTS at 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4171; post-spike range 4131–4146 above the 4110.84 day low.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open and slid through London as hawkish Fedspeak and 10y yields above 5% weighed on it. Price was rejected at the 4171.29 session high during the London-NY transition and set a 4110.84 day low during NY hours. The 16:15 UTC spike on Iran sanctions-relief headlines stalled at the fib 61.8 near 4148, and late NY is now compressing between the 4131.83 range low and 4146 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,131.83, 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4148 (fib 61.8) and the lower highs trendline opens the 4160.61 swing high, then the 4171.29 session high
Failure to hold the 4131.83 range low and the 4126.16 higher low exposes a retest of the 4110.84 day low
US-Iran sanctions and oil headlines have driven the only sharp bounce so far and could break the range either way
Tuesday's Musalem 11:30 UTC, JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the afternoon Fedspeak cluster could materially shift this read
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 50 · price 4,137.65
Lower highs from 4171; tight 4126–4146 box after 4110.84 low.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open and sold off through London and NY to the 4110.84 session low as hawkish Fedspeak and 5%+ yields weighed. The late-NY spike on Iran sanctions-relief headlines stalled at the 61.8% fib near 4148. Since then price has compressed between the 4126 higher low and 4146, under the lower highs trendline.
Support: 4,131.83, 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4148 breaks the lower highs sequence and opens the 4160.6 lower high, then the 4171.3 swing high
Loss of the 4131.8 recent low and the 4126 higher low re-exposes the 4110.84 session low
Iran sanctions and oil headlines have driven the only bounces; a reversal there could shift this read
Tuesday Musalem 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Fedspeak cluster, could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; 4133–4141 consolidation above 4110.84 ny low.
Monday opened on a weekend gap lower from 4286 and slid about $175 through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed hike bets lifted yields and the USD. NY printed a 4110.84 ny low, and the sharp bounce met rejection at the 4148.17 bounce high, the 61.8% fib of the 4171–4110 leg. Late NY is compressing between 4133 and the 4141.71 range top, just under the ema20 and below the descending trendline.
Support: 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,141.71, 4,148.17, 4,160.61
What it said to watch
Close above the 4148.17 bounce high and the descending trendline breaks the lower-high chain, with the 4160.61 ny high next
A move through the 4141.71 range top would put the 4148 bounce high back in play
Loss of the 4126.16 swing low exposes the 4110.84 ny low
Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Williams/Waller Fedspeak could materially shift this read
18:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after the NY low · RSI 48 · price 4,135.38
Gold gapped lower at the open and sold off through Asia and London as oil-driven Fed-hike bets and 5%+ yields weighed. The move bottomed at the 4110.84 session low in NY hours. The 16:15 UTC relief spike, which lines up with Iran sanctions-relief headlines trimming oil, met rejection at the fib 61.8 (4148.17) under the descending trendline from the 4171.29 swing high. Price is now compressing near EMA20 above a 4126.16 higher low, with RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148.17 fib 61.8 and descending trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4160.61 ny open high in play
Loss of the 4126.16 higher low reopens the 4110.84 session low, with the 4100 round number below
Tue JOLTS (14:00 UTC) and the Williams/Waller Fedspeak could materially shift this read
Thin Asia session liquidity after a near-3% down day can widen ranges beyond the current ATR
18:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late NY · RSI 46 · price 4,134.54
Lower highs from 4171; NY consolidating 4126–4148 above the 4110.84 session low.
Monday's gap lower ran through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed-hike bets and firm yields weighed. London broke the asian low at 4161.94 and NY printed a session low at 4110.84. Late NY is holding near the 38.2% retrace of the 4171–4111 leg, with a descending trendline of lower highs capping at 4148 and a swing low at 4126 underneath.
Support: 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,161.94
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148 lower high (61.8% of the 4171–4111 leg) breaks the lower-high chain and exposes the 4162 asian low
Failure to hold the 4126 swing low reopens the 4110.84 session low
Descending trendline of lower highs sits near 4138; sustained closes above it would mark the first break in the NY sequence
JOLTS and Tuesday's Fedspeak barrage, including Williams and Waller, from 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from London; post-low range 4128–4148.
Gold extended Monday's oil- and yield-driven slide into NY hours, printing a 4110.84 NY low before a late-NY rebound met rejection at the 4148 rebound high, the 61.8% fib of the 4171–4110 leg. Price is now coiling between the 4128 higher low and 4148, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45 and ATR(14) around 1150 pips.
Support: 4,128.28, 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4148 rebound high clears the 61.8% fib and opens the 4160.61 ny open high, then the 4171 london high
Failure to hold the 4128 higher low puts the 4110.84 ny low back in play, with the 4095 socgen level below
Fed's Cook remarks (from 17:15 UTC) could extend the late-NY range in either direction
Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Waller/Williams Fedspeak can reset this intraday structure
Lower highs from 4171; compression after NY flush.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and bled through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed hike bets and >5% yields weighed, with NY extending to a 4110.84 session low before a sharp bounce. The rebound stalled at the 4148 bounce high, the 61.8% retrace of the 4171–4110 leg, and after London close price is compressing between that cap and a 4126 higher low, sitting on EMA20 with RSI(14) near 47.
Support: 4,126.16, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148 bounce high and the lower-high trendline opens the 4160.61 lower high, then the 4171 spike high
Loss of the 4126 higher low reopens the 4110.84 session low, with SocGen's 4095 support beyond
Fed's Cook remarks (17:15 UTC) and US-Iran oil headlines could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4171 capping rebounds; higher low at 4126 off the 4110.84 session low.
Gold gapped lower at the Sunday open and slid from 4271 to 4140 through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed hike bets and 5%+ yields weighed. NY printed a 4110.84 session low before a higher low at 4126. Rebounds keep stalling on the descending line of lower highs from the 4171 spike high, with rejection at 4146.6 and price pinned near the 50% fib at 4141.
Support: 4,126.16, 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148 lower high breaks the descending line and exposes the 4160.6 swing high, then the 4171 spike high
Failure to hold the 4126 higher low reopens the 4110.84 session low and the 4100 round number
Fed's Cook speaks at 17:15 UTC, in the current bar, and could shift this read; JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak follow Tuesday
Lower highs from 4171; NY base 4115-4111 holding, spike to 4148 rejected.
Gold extended Monday's gap-down slide through Asia and London as oil-fed October hike bets kept yields firm, printing a session low at 4110.84 in the first hour of NY. The 16:15 UTC spike was rejected at the spike high 4148, the 61.8% fib of the 4171-4111 drop, keeping lower highs under descending resistance. Price now sits near 4129, back below the ema20 and under the old london low at 4136.
Support: 4,115.46, 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,136.35, 4,148.17, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
A close back above the london low at 4136 and the 38.2% fib reopens the spike high at 4148
A close above descending resistance and 4148 breaks the lower-high chain, with the london high at 4171 next
Loss of the ny base at 4115 and the session low at 4110.84 extends the downtrend toward socgen supp at 4095
Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC and the Fedspeak run are the next scheduled risk after Cook
16:47 UTC
Downtrend, late-NY bounce off the lows · RSI 46 · price 4,142.85
Lower highs from 4171; 4115–4128 base broken higher, capped at the 61.8% fib.
Gold bled steadily from the 4271 gap-down open to a 4110.84 NY low as oil-fed October-hike bets kept yields and the USD firm. The late-NY spike broke the 4115–4128 range floor base and stalled at the fib 61.8 of the 4171 london high to NY low leg (4148). Price is holding near the 50% level, back above the 4136 swing low.
Support: 4,136.35, 4,115.46, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148 fib 61.8 opens the 4160 swing high, then the 4171 london high
Failure back below the 4136 swing low puts the 4115 range floor and 4110.84 NY low back in play
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Gold gapped lower at the open and slid through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed-hike bets kept yields firm, marking a session low at 4110.84 in the first hours of NY. The 16:15 UTC rally bar out of the 4115–4128 base stalled at the 4148 spike high, the fib 61.8% retrace of the 4171–4110 leg. The lower-high sequence from the london high (4171) and ny open high (4160.6) is intact, with price now after London close.
Support: 4,136.40, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4148 spike high / fib 61.8% opens a retest of the 4160.6 ny open high
Failure back below the 4136.4 ny open low puts the 4110.84 session low back in play
A break above the 4171.3 london high ends the lower-high sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near $12 per bar
16:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 32 · price 4,117.44
Lower highs and lower lows; tight post-drop box 4111–4128.
Gold gapped below Friday's 4286 close at the weekly open and sold through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed-hike bets kept yields firm. Bounces were capped at lower highs of 4171 and 4160. NY broke the 4136 prior low to a 4110.84 session low, and price is now consolidating in a 4111–4128 box after London close, with RSI(14) near 32.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,128.03, 4,136.35, 4,160.61
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read and break the 4111–4128 consolidation
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward psych 4100
Close above the 4128 bounce high puts the 4136 prior low and the 38.2% fib (~4134) of the NY drop in play
Only a break of the 4160.61 lower high and the trendline invalidates the downtrend structure
16:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 38 · price 4,122.69
Lower highs and lower lows since the gap-down open; tight base above session low.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open and bled through Asia and London as oil-driven Fed-hike pricing lifted yields and the USD. NY printed a lower high at 4160.61 before breaking to a 4110.84 session low. Price is now compressing between that low and the 4128 bounce high after London close, with the 4136 prior low capping overhead and RSI(14) near 37, off oversold.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,128.03, 4,136.35, 4,160.61
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number and the 4095 socgen level
Reclaim of the 4128 bounce high and the 4136 prior low (near the 38.2% fib) would mark the first higher high since NY opened
Only a break of the descending trendline through the 4160.61 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows; NY session broke the London range low.
Gold's oil- and yield-driven slide held a 4140–4171 London range until a rejection at the 4171 range top. The NY session then broke the London low and printed a session low at 4110.84. The bounce stalled at the 4128 bounce high, below the 38.2% fib near 4134, with RSI(14) near 33 and the lower-high trendline from 4171 still capping.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,128.03, 4,140.72, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4140.72 london low would turn the NY break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4110.84 session low puts the 4100 round number and the socgen 4095 level in play
Break of the lower-high trendline, now near 4155, would invalidate the intraday downtrend read
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after new session low · RSI 34 · price 4,124.16
Lower highs 4171 → 4161 → 4144; NY broke the 4136 low.
Gold gapped lower at the Monday open and sold off through Asia and London. Oil-fed October hike bets and 10y yields above 5% are doing the damage. Mid-NY session, price broke the 4136 NY low to a session low at 4110.84, and lower highs at the 4171 swing high and 4161 lower high cap the chart. It is now stalling near 4125 with RSI(14) around 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,136.35, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4136 ny low negates the NY range break
Reclaim of the 4141 area (50% fib of the 4171–4111 leg) and the lower-highs trendline shifts the read toward a relief bounce
Break of the 4110.84 session low exposes the 4100 round number and SocGen's 4095 socgen level
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
15:18 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs through NY session · RSI 37 · price 4,123.08
Lower-high/lower-low chain; London-NY range broken to the downside.
Gold broke the 4136–4171 London-NY transition range during NY hours and printed a session low at 4110.84, extending Monday's near-3% slide from the gap-down open as oil-fed October Fed hike bets and >5% yields weigh. The rejection at the 4171.29 swing high and the 4160.61 lower high define the descending trendline. RSI(14) is near 37, soft but not oversold on this timeframe.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,136.35, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 4136 range floor, with the 50% fib near 4141 just above, would turn the range break into a false break
M15 close below the 4110.84 session low extends the lower-low chain toward SocGen support at 4095
Close above the 4160.61 lower high breaks the descending trendline
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC (~2h) could materially shift this read
15:03 UTC
Downtrend, extending into NY · RSI 32 · price 4,116.64
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday gap; fresh session low in NY.
Gold gapped lower at the Monday open and bled through Asia and London as oil-fed Fed hike bets kept yields firm. NY opened with a rejection at the 4160.61 lower high, then broke the 4136.35 NY swing low to print a session low at 4110.84. RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not at an oversold extreme.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,136.35, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4110.84 session low exposes the 4100 round number and SocGen's 4095 support
M15 close back above the 4136.35 NY swing low would stall the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 4160.61 lower high and the 4171.29 london high breaks the descending sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Downtrend, NY session extending to fresh lows · RSI 34 · price 4,121.54
Lower highs and lower lows; 4136–4160 midday range broken to the downside.
Monday's oil- and yield-driven slide resumed in the first hour of NY. Price broke the 4136–4141 broken floor to a new session low at 4120.81 after a rejection at the 4171 london high and a lower high at 4160. RSI(14) is near 34, soft but not oversold, and the lower-high trendline stays intact.
Support: 4,120.81, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,136.35, 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4136 broken floor would mark the break as a false break and reopen the 4136–4160 range
A move above the 4160.61 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and the intraday sequence
Failure to hold the 4120.81 session low exposes the 4100 round number, with the cited 4095 support just below
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read; JOLTS and heavy Fedspeak follow Tuesday
Lower highs compressing onto a flat 4136–4141 base since London.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and liquidated steadily through Asia and London, from 4275 to 4141, as oil-driven Fed-hike bets lifted yields. Since 09:00 UTC price has based at 4136–4141, with the NY open low at 4136 as the session low, while lower highs at the 4171 swing high and 4160 compress against it. RSI(14) sits near 43.
Support: 4,136.35, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136 session low resumes the downtrend, with 4095 support next
Reclaim of the 4150 breakdown level and the lower-high trendline near 4160 would point to a base forming
M15 close above the 4171 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
14:17 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 40 · price 4,138.53
Lower highs in a 4136–4171 box after Asia sell-off.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and slid about $135 through Asia into London, driven by US-Iran escalation lifting oil, Fed hike bets and yields. Since 09:00 UTC it has held a 4136–4171 box. Early NY capped the bounce at the 4160 lower high and has put price back on the 4136.35 session low, with RSI(14) near 40 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,136.35, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4136.35 session low resumes the downtrend, with the 4100 psych level next
Recovery above the 4150 breakdown level and the lower-high trendline near 4160 would neutralise the NY rejection
A break of the 4171.29 session high invalidates the lower-high sequence within the box
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC, about 3h out, could materially shift this read
14:04 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a post-liquidation range · RSI 47 · price 4,154.38
4136–4171 range since London open; NY open swept the lows, lower highs capping.
US-Iran escalation lifted oil and October hike bets, and gold fell from a gap-lower 4271 open through the Asia session to the 4150 psych area by London open. Price has since held a 4136–4171 range. The NY open swept the london low at 4140.72 to a 4136.35 ny low, then bounced back above 4150. Lower highs from the 4171 range high are capping, with the 4160.6 swing high the latest. RSI(14) sits near 47, neutral after the oversold Asia leg.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.72, 4,136.35
Resistance: 4,160.61, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.6 swing high tests the lower-highs line; above the 4171 range high the range read breaks
Failure to hold the 4150 psych and a break of the 4136 ny low resumes the Monday drop toward 4095
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC (~3h) could materially shift this read
Lower highs intact; 4136–4171 NY-hours chop after sweep of London low.
Gold has held a lower-high/lower-low sequence since Monday's gap-down open near 4271, weighed by oil-driven Fed hike bets and 10y yields above 5%. The spike to the 4171 spike high around Bowman's 12:15 UTC remarks faded under the lower-highs trendline. In the first hour of NY, price swept the 4140.72 London low to a 4136 session low and snapped back to 4151, with RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 4,140.72, 4,136.35
Resistance: 4,160.40, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160 range top and the lower-highs trendline breaks the intraday lower-high sequence; 4171 spike high next, 38.2% of the day's decline near 4189 beyond
Failure to hold the 4136 session low resumes the lower-low chain, with the 4095 support flagged in the digest the next reference
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
13:32 UTC
Downtrend, basing near lows · RSI 42 · price 4,148.19
Monday selloff paused; 4140–4160 range with a marginal higher low.
Gold gapped lower at the Monday open. It then slid through Asia and early London from 4275 to a 4140.72 session low as oil-fed inflation fears and firm Fed hike bets weighed. Since then price has based in a 4140–4160 range; the spike to 4171.29 around Bowman's 12:15 UTC remarks was rejected at the 23.6% fib of the Monday selloff, and price sits below EMA20 into the NY open with RSI(14) near 42.
Support: 4,143.17, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4140.72 session low resumes the Monday selloff lower-low sequence
Failure to hold the 4143.17 higher low breaks the basing read
M15 close above the 4160 range top and then the 4171.29 spike high would mark the first higher high since the Asia open
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
13:16 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a tight range · RSI 43 · price 4,148.19
Lower highs below 4171, range 4143–4160 above the london low.
Gold gapped lower at the Monday open and slid from 4275 in Asia to a 4140.72 london low. Oil-driven Fed hike bets and firm yields drove the move. The spike high at 4171.29 around Bowman's 12:15 UTC remarks stalled near the 23.6% fib and reversed to a 4143.17 swing low. Price now chops below EMA20 and the 4160 range top into the NY open, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,143.17, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4140.72 london low extends the downtrend and resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 4160 range top shifts the read to a broader base; the 4171 spike high is the next test
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4143 swing low puts the london low back in play
Lower highs from Asia open; London range 4141–4160, NY spike rejected.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and sold off steadily from 4275 through Asia into a 4140.72 session low in London. Oil-driven inflation fears and firm Fed hike pricing are behind the slide. Around Bowman's 12:15 UTC remarks, the first hour of NY spiked to a 4171.29 spike high, right at the 23.6% retrace of the Asia-London drop. That spike was rejected back into the 4141–4160 London range, and price is holding below the range top with EMA20 overhead.
Support: 4,140.72, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4140.72 session low resumes the lower-low sequence, with the 4095 next support the reference below
Close back above the 4160.42 range top reopens the 4171.29 spike high / 23.6% fib
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia open; 4140–4160 range since London, spike above rejected.
Gold extended Monday's oil- and yield-driven slide from the 4275 Asia open to a 4140.7 session low in London, then held a 4140–4160 range. The Bowman-window spike to 4171.3 stalled at the 23.6% retracement of the Monday drop and reversed hard to a 4143.2 pullback low, a false break of the range top in the London-NY transition.
Support: 4,143.20, 4,140.70
Resistance: 4,160.00, 4,171.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4140.7 session low extends the lower-low chain and puts the 4095 area from the digest in view
Close back above the 4160 range top, then the 4171.3 spike high and 23.6% fib, would invalidate the descending-line read
Failure to hold the 4143.2 pullback low keeps price pinned to the base of the range
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
12:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in a range · RSI 42 · price 4,152.13
LH/LL chain from the Monday gap, then a 4141–4160 range with a rejected upside break.
Monday gapped below Friday's 4286 close and slid through Asia and London to a 4140.72 session low, pressured by oil-driven hike bets and 10y yields above 5%. Price has since held a 4141–4160 range. In the London-NY transition, the spike around Bowman's 12:15 UTC remarks pierced the range top to a 4171.29 spike high, right at the 23.6% of the Monday drop fib, and was pushed back inside; RSI(14) is near 42.
Support: 4,146.72, 4,140.72, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,171.29, 4,178.95
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4171.29 spike high negates the false-break read and opens the 4178.95 asian low, then the 38.2% of the Monday drop fib near 4192
Loss of the 4146.72 spike base, then a break of the 4140.72 session low, extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number
Price back above the 4160.42 range top without fading keeps the range in play rather than the downtrend resuming
Fed's Cook at 17:15 UTC and Tuesday's JOLTS at 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London range 4146–4160 broken higher; lower highs intact below 4203.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and sold off through Asia into a 4140.72 session low in London as oil-fed hike bets and 10y yields above 5% weighed. The London session then compressed between the range low near 4146.7 and the range top near 4160.4. The 12:00 UTC bar broke above that range top ahead of Bowman and ran to a 4167.36 spike high, stalling at the 38.2% fib of the 4203–4140 leg with RSI(14) near 49.
Support: 4,160.40, 4,146.70, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,167.36, 4,171.90, 4,180.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4160 range top turns the break into a false break
Acceptance above the 4167.36 spike high exposes the 50% fib at 4172 and the 4180 breakdown zone
Break of the 4140.72 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Bowman (12:15 UTC, live) and Cook (17:15 UTC in NY hours) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lows from the gap-down open; tight range since London morning.
Gold gapped lower at Monday's open, then sold off through Asia and into London on oil-fed inflation fears and firmer Fed hike bets. It printed a session low at 4140.72 during the London morning. Since then it has held a tight consolidation between the 4148 range floor and the 4160 range top, retracing under 15% of the Monday drop, with RSI(14) near 43 and price back under EMA20.
Support: 4,148.30, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,177.62
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4140.72 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
M15 close above the 4160 range top ends the consolidation and exposes the 4177.6 swing high
Loss of the 4148 range floor puts the session low back in play
Fed's Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
11:47 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after London low · RSI 45 · price 4,151.94
Lower highs from the gap open; 4140–4160 box since mid-London.
Gold gapped lower from Friday's 4286 close. It broke 4250 and the 4200 round number in Asia, then extended to a 4140.72 session low in London on oil-driven Fed hike bets and 5%+ yields. Since then it has boxed between 4140.72 and the 4160.42 range high, printing a higher low at 4148.3 into the London-NY transition. The 23.6% fib of the Monday drop sits near 4172, just above the 4169 breakdown shelf.
Support: 4,148.30, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,169.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC (~30 min) could break the 4140–4160 box either way
M15 close below the 4140.72 session low resumes the downtrend and voids the higher-low sequence
A loss of the 4148.3 higher low breaks the higher-low trendline and returns focus to the session low
Close above the 4160.42 range high opens the 4169 breakdown / 23.6% fib zone, then the 4200 round number
11:32 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in late London · RSI 43 · price 4,152.71
Lower highs and lower lows since the gap-down open. Now a 4140–4160 consolidation with higher lows..
Gold's Monday gap-down extended through Asia and London as oil-driven Fed hike bets and 5% yields weighed. The session low printed at 4140.7, the lowest since early August. Since 09:00 UTC price has compressed into a 4140–4160 consolidation, with the range top capping near the 50% fib of the 4177.6 swing high to session low leg and a higher low at 4148.3. RSI(14) is neutral at 43.
Support: 4,148.30, 4,140.70
Resistance: 4,160.40, 4,177.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4160.4 range top breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4177.6 swing high
Failure to hold the 4148.3 higher low, then the 4140.7 session low, resumes the downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the gap; tight 4140–4160 London range.
Gold gapped lower from Friday's ~4286 close and sold off through Asia and London, breaking 4200 and 4150 on oil-fuelled Fed hike bets and firm yields. The London bounce off the 4140.72 session low stalled at the 4160.4 range top, just shy of the 38.2% retrace of the 4200–4140 fib leg. The 11:00 UTC bar was rejected there and fell back to the 4150 round number.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,169.28
What it said to watch
Loss of the 4140.72 session low resumes the lower-low chain
M15 close above the 4160.4 range top opens the 38.2% fib near 4163 and the 4169 breakdown level
The 4150 round number is the pivot inside the 4140–4160 London range
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, ahead of the NY open, could materially shift this read
11:03 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 35 · price 4,155.81
Lower highs and lower lows from the weekly gap; tight base 4151–4160 above the 4140.72 session low.
Gold gapped lower at the open and the Asia sell-off ran from 4275 through the 4150 area. Hawkish Fed pricing and 5%+ yields drove the move, and London extended it to a 4140.72 session low. Mid-London, price is compressing between a 4151.7 range low and a 4160.42 range top, capped just under EMA20 (~4158) with RSI(14) near 35.
Support: 4,151.70, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.42, 4,176.54
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.42 range top and EMA20 opens the 4172 (23.6% of the Asia sell-off) to 4176.54 swing high area
Failure to hold the 4151.7 range low re-exposes the 4140.72 session low; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, ahead of NY open, could break the range; Cook follows at 17:15 UTC
Lower highs and lower lows from the weekend gap; tight base at 4141–4160 during London.
Gold opened the week with a gap lower. The Asia-to-London sell-off, on hawkish Fed pricing and 5%+ yields, ran to a 4140.72 session low. The rebound since has stalled at 4159–4160, where the ema20 meets the 50% of the leg fib from the 4177.62 leg high, leaving a tight base around the 4150 psych level with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,160.00, 4,177.62
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 4160 ema20 opens a path back toward the 4177.62 leg high
M15 close back below 4150 psych puts the 4140.72 session low back in play
A break of the 4140.72 session low resumes the lower-low sequence
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs through Asia/London; higher lows since 4140.72.
Gold gapped below Friday's 4286 close and sold off through Asia into London, printing a session low at 4140.72 by 09:00 UTC as the haven USD and hike pricing weighed. The bounce since has built higher lows off the 4150 round number but is stalling into the 4160 London high, where EMA20 also sits. RSI(14) near 43 is neutral.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,176.50
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160 London high opens the path to the 4176.5 swing high
Break of the higher-lows line and the 4150 round number puts the 4140.72 session low back in play
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, around the NY open, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from Asia open, minor higher low at 4142.
Gold gapped below Friday's 4286 close and bled lower through the Asia session and London open. It printed a 4140.72 session low near 09:00 UTC as a firm USD and October hike pricing weighed. The rebound has stalled at 4159, the 50% fib of the 4177.6–4140.7 leg, with EMA20 near 4160 overhead and RSI(14) around 40.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,159.10, 4,166.27, 4,177.62
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4159 50% fib and the 4166 London open high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 4177.6 swing high next
Failure to hold the 4150 round number puts the 4140.72 session low back in play; a break below extends the downtrend
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC, ahead of NY open, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the Asia open; base at 4141–4143, minor London trendline cleared.
Monday opened on a gap lower. Asia then slid steadily from 4275 to 4162, and London printed a session low at 4140.72 as a firm USD and 10y yields above 5% weighed. Price has since based at 4141–4143 and lifted through the London trendline. It is now testing the fib 50% near 4158.6, with the ema20 and the 61.8% level stacked at 4162–4163 just under the 4166.27 London high.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,140.72
Resistance: 4,162.00, 4,166.27, 4,176.54
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4166.27 London high breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 4176.54 swing high in view
Rejection at the ema20 / fib 61.8% zone near 4162 keeps the bounce corrective
Loss of the 4150 psych level, then the 4140.72 session low, resumes the lower-low chain
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC and Cook at 17:15 UTC could materially shift this read
09:47 UTC
Downtrend, selling pace slowing · RSI 33 · price 4,151.11
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekend gap, with a small base forming at 4140–4142.
Gold opened the week with a weekend gap lower and bled through Asia and early London on the oil-driven USD bid and Fed hike repricing, printing a session low at 4140.72, while the London high at 4166.27 has capped since. The last two bars poked above the falling London trendline, but price sits just under the 4152.90 swing high with RSI(14) near 33 and ATR around 870 pips.
Support: 4,140.72, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,152.90, 4,166.27, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4152.90 swing high after the trendline poke would print the first intraday higher high, with the 4166.27 london high next
Loss of the 4140.72 session low resumes the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number
4200 round number sits near the 38.2% of the Monday decline fib, an area to watch for rejection on any extended bounce
Bowman (12:15 UTC) and Cook (17:15 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs all session; tight 4140–4153 box under falling trendline.
Gold gapped about $15 lower at the weekly open and has printed lower highs through Asia. London broke the Asian low near 4162 and set a 4140.72 session low as the oil-driven USD bid and a 10y above 5% weigh. Mid-London, price is compressing in a 4140–4153 box against the falling trendline, with RSI(14) near 24, stretched but not extreme.
Support: 4,140.72, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,152.90, 4,161.94, 4,192.10
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4152.90 range top and the falling trendline breaks the lower-high sequence; the Asian low at 4161.94 is the first resistance above
Loss of the 4140.72 session low extends the downtrend toward the SocGen level at 4095
A deeper relief leg would meet the 38.2% fib of the gap-day leg near 4192
Bowman at 12:15 UTC during NY hours could materially shift this read
09:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 4,145.16
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday gap; Asian low broken in London.
Gold gapped below Friday's 4286 close and the session decline has run about $135 from 4275 in a clean lower-high chain, as US-Iran escalation and hawkish Fed pricing lift yields and the USD rather than bullion. London broke the 4161.9 Asian low and printed a 4140.7 session low. RSI(14) near 23 is stretched, but the descending trendline and the 4152.9 lower high still cap every bounce.
Support: 4,140.72, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,152.90, 4,161.94, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Break below the 4140.7 session low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4100 round number
M15 close above the 4152.9 lower high and the descending trendline breaks the sequence; the 4161.9 Asian low is next overhead
Reclaim of the 4200 round number would mark a deeper retracement of the session decline
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:47 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 22 · price 4,147.61
Lower highs from the weekly open, London broke below the Asian low.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and has printed a clean lower-high chain through Asia into London. It slipped below the Asian low and the psych 4150 mark on weekend US-Iran escalation and firm October hike pricing. Session low at 4142.69 is the current floor, with RSI(14) near 22 and the descending trendline from 4200 capping each bounce.
Support: 4,142.69
Resistance: 4,150.00, 4,160.49, 4,177.62
What it said to watch
M15 close back above psych 4150 and the descending trendline would stall the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4160.49 lower high breaks the chain; the 4177.62 swing high sits above
Failure to hold the 4142.69 session low extends the London leg
Fib of the session drop: 38.2% near 4193 is the first retracement marker if a bounce develops
Fed's Bowman at 12:15 UTC could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, no base yet · RSI 23 · price 4,146.24
Lower highs and lower lows since the Sunday gap; London extended below the Asian low.
Gold gapped lower at the Sunday open. It broke the 4191–4200 Asian consolidation, then the aug 5 low near 4168 in the first hour of London, as 5%+ yields and a safe-haven USD bid kept pressure on. The session low sits at 4143.26 with RSI(14) near 23, oversold but with no swing base yet; the 4200 leg fib maps the retrace zone overhead.
Support: 4,143.26, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,150.94, 4,160.49, 4,168.50
What it said to watch
Prior low at 4150.94 is the first overhead level; rejection there keeps the lower-high chain intact
M15 close above the 4160.49 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the aug 5 low at 4168.5, inside the 38.2–50% of the 4200 leg fib, would mark the breakdown as failed
Acceptance below the 4143.26 session low leaves the 4100 psych level as the next reference
No US data today; Middle East headlines and US 10y moves around 5% are the swing factors for this read
08:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 22 · price 4,153.49
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday gap; Asian base broken, tight 4151–4160 pause.
Gold gapped lower from Friday's 4286 close and sold off through Asia. The 4191–4200 asian base gave way late in the session, and early London cut through the 4168 prior low (lowest since Aug 5) to a 4150.94 session low. Hike odds, 10y yields above 5% and a safe-haven USD bid are driving the move. Price is now pausing between 4151 and the 4160.5 bounce high, below the lower-high line, with RSI(14) near 22.
Support: 4,150.94
Resistance: 4,160.49, 4,191.46
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.5 bounce high and the lower-high line would be the first break in the lower-high sequence
Reclaim of the 4168.5 prior low would neutralise the breakdown. The Monday fib 23.6% sits at 4180 and the 38.2% at 4198, overlapping the 4191.5 asian base
Failure to hold the 4150.94 session low extends the lower-low chain below the 4150 round number
No US data today. Fedspeak and US-Iran/oil headlines could materially shift this read
08:04 UTC
Downtrend, oversold, no base yet · RSI 22 · price 4,154.60
Lower highs and lower lows since the weekly gap; Asian range and 4169 prior low broken in early London.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and has held a steady lower-high and lower-low chain since. The first hour of London broke the 4191–4200 Asian range and the 4169 prior low, a move the digest ties to USD strength and October hike pricing. Price now sits on the 4150.9 session low with RSI(14) near 22, stretched but with no reversal structure yet.
Support: 4,150.90
Resistance: 4,169.00, 4,177.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4169 prior low would mark the break as failed
A move through the 4177.6 lower high ends the lower-high sequence and puts the 4191–4200 asian range back in view, where the 38.2% of the open-to-low drop sits near 4198
Acceptance below the 4150.9 session low extends the lower-low chain; RSI near 22 leaves room for a sharp snap-back
No US data today; Mideast headlines and the US 10y relative to 5% remain the swing factors
Unbroken lower highs and lower lows since the Monday gap.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 4286 close. Price has printed lower highs and lower lows through Asia into London open, with firm USD and hawkish Fed pricing driving the slide below the 4200 psych level. The 4191–4200 asia base gave way and the session low at 4152.43 sits just above the 4150 round number, with RSI(14) near 13, deeply oversold.
Support: 4,152.43, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,169.28, 4,191.46, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4169 prior low would be the first break of the lower-highs trendline sequence
38.2% of the Monday drop sits at 4199, stacked with the asia base at 4191 and the 4200 psych level. This is the area to watch for rejection on any rebound
Acceptance below the 4150 round number extends the session low with no nearby structure beneath
No US data today; Iran/oil headlines and Fedspeak are the main risk to this read
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday open gap; London open extending to fresh session lows.
Gold gapped lower at the Monday open from 4286 and sold through the 4200 round number in Asia, paused in a 4191–4200 range, then broke lower again. The first hour of London pushed to a 4156.47 session low, through the ~4168.50 prior low flagged as the lowest since Aug 5, as October hike odds, 10y yields above 5% and a USD safe-haven bid weigh. RSI(14) near 13 is deeply oversold, but the lower-high chain is intact.
Support: 4,156.47, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,168.50, 4,177.62, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4168.50 prior low would mark the break below it as a false break
A close above the 4177.62 swing high breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 4200 round number, near the 38.2% fib of the Asia leg
Failure to hold the 4156.47 session low exposes the 4150 psych level
No US data today; US-Iran headlines and oil moves are the main intraday swing factor for USD and gold
07:17 UTC
Downtrend, extending into London open · RSI 23 · price 4,162.15
Lower highs / lower lows from the Monday gap; Asian base at 4190–4200 broken, new session low.
Gold gapped about $15 below Friday's 4286 close and sold through the Asia session. The 4190–4200 base gave way before London open, and the first London bars printed a new session low at 4160.34. The lower high at 4177.6 caps the chain, and RSI(14) near 23 is oversold as the digest points to hawkish-Fed and oil-driven USD pressure.
Support: 4,160.34, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,177.62, 4,200.00, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4177.6 lower high breaks the LH/LL chain
Failure to hold the 4160.34 session low puts the 4150 round number in play
A reclaim of the 4200 psych level, near the 38.2% retrace of the Monday drop, would neutralise the Asian breakdown
The 4217.7 asian shelf sits at the 50% retrace of the Monday drop; a return there would mark a deeper repair
US-Iran and oil headlines could accelerate or reverse the London leg
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday open gap.
Gold gapped about $15 lower at the Monday open and fell through the Asian session, losing the $4,200 psych as firm October hike odds and 10y yields above 5% kept pressure on. The 4191–4200 consolidation broke at the end of the Asian session, and London opens with price pressing the session low at 4161.6 under a fresh lower high at 4177.6, with RSI(14) near 22.
Support: 4,161.57, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,177.62, 4,191.46, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 4161.6 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 4150 round number next
An M15 close above the 4177.6 lower high breaks the lower-high sequence
A move back above the 4191.5 range floor and the 4200 psych would retrace toward the 38.2% of the Monday decline near 4205
Oil and US-Iran headlines, and US 10y yields around 5%, could materially shift this read during London hours
One-way lower highs and lower lows through the Asia session.
Gold gapped lower at the Monday open below Friday's 4286 close. Asia has since been one-way, with lower highs from 4275 down to a 4168.55 session low under a descending trendline, as October hike pricing and 5% 10y yields weigh. RSI(14) near 18 is deeply oversold into the London open, and the 4200.13 lower high caps the sequence.
Support: 4,168.55, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,177.62, 4,200.13
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4177.62 swing high would print the first higher high of the session
Break of the 4168.55 session low extends the sequence toward the 4150 round number
Recovery through the 4200.13 lower high and the descending trendline invalidates the downtrend read
London open liquidity and oil/Iran headlines could materially shift this read
Unbroken lower highs / lower lows since the Monday gap.
Monday's Asia session gapped ~15 below Friday's 4286 close and has ground out a steady lower-high/lower-low chain through the 4200 handle to a 4168.55 session low. Hawkish Fed repricing and US 10y above 5% keep pressure on. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, but falling highs off the 4217.70 swing high are still capping bounces ahead of London open.
Support: 4,168.55, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,181.44, 4,200.13, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4181.44 minor high and the falling highs line breaks the lower-high chain
Reclaim of the 4200 handle opens a 38.2% retrace of the monday drop near 4209
Failure to hold the 4168.55 session low leaves the 4150 round number as the next reference
London open (07:00 UTC) is the next volatility window; no US data due in the next 8h, JOLTS and Fedspeak land Tuesday
06:17 UTC
Downtrend, extending into late Asia · RSI 27 · price 4,178.28
Lower highs and lower lows since Monday's gap-down open; 4191–4203 pause broken lower.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open and cut through Friday's 4254.56 low, then slipped below the 4200 psych level to its lowest since early August as hawkish Fed repricing and 5%+ yields weigh. A mid-Asia pause at 4191–4203 broke lower into a 4175.13 session low. Lower highs are still capped by the falling trendline, and RSI(14) sits near 27 into the London open.
Support: 4,175.13, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,191.50, 4,200.00, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4191.5 range floor and the falling trendline would break the lower-high chain
Reclaim of 4200 psych neutralises the breakdown; 4217.7 swing high is the last lower high
Failure to hold the 4175.13 session low leaves the 4150 round number as the next reference
London open at 07:00 UTC typically tests the Asian range extremes; the range is already ~100 dollars wide
06:03 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 22 · price 4,177.36
Lower highs and lower lows below 4200.
The weekly open gapped about $15 below Friday's 4286 close. Asia session has sold steadily since, slipping through the 4200 round number and the 4191.5 range low to a fresh session low at 4177, the lowest since Aug 5, on hawkish Fed repricing and 10y yields above 5%. A falling trendline off the 4217.7 lower high has capped every bounce, and RSI(14) near 22 is oversold into the London open.
Support: 4,177.15, 4,150.00
Resistance: 4,191.50, 4,200.00, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4191.5 range low and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
4200 round number is the first area to watch for rejection on any bounce; reclaiming the 4217.7 lower high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Failure to hold the 4177 session low leaves the 4150 psych level as the next reference
Tue Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) and JOLTS (14:00 UTC) could shift the read after this session
05:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 23 · price 4,182.06
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia session; 4191–4200 shelf broken.
Gold gapped down at the Monday open (Friday close 4286, open 4271). The Asia-session drop then lost the 4200 psych level, with lower highs capping each bounce, as October hike pricing and 10y yields above 5% weighed. A brief 4191–4200 shelf gave way into the late Asian range, printing a session low at 4180.22 with RSI(14) near 23, deep in oversold territory.
Support: 4,180.22
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4191 shelf puts the breakdown in question; reclaiming 4200 psych negates it
Break below the 4180.22 session low extends the lower-low chain
Close above the 4217.7 swing high breaks the lower-highs sequence
London open liquidity could test the stretched move; Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak, Wed ADP/PCE are the next macro risk
05:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 4,188.95
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; 4191–4200 shelf broken, new session low printed.
Gold gapped lower at the weekly open and slid about $90 through the Asia session, from 4275 to a 4185 session low. Hawkish Fed pricing and 10y yields above 5% weighed, and late in Asia the 4191–4200 shelf gave way while the lower-highs chain stayed intact. RSI(14) near 21 is oversold, with a mild bullish divergence on the latest low.
Support: 4,185.34, 4,180.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.70, 4,230.25
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4200 psych and the lower-highs trendline would break the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 4185.34 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4180 round number
Reclaim of the 4217.70 swing high neutralises the Asian downtrend; fib 50% at 4230 sits inside the old 4230–4254 support now overhead
London open in ~1.5h is likely to expand the Asian range
05:16 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 31 · price 4,192.77
Gold gapped down at the Asia session open from Friday's 4286 close and slid through the 4200 round number to its lowest since Aug 5, driven by Fed hike pricing and firm yields. Since then price has compressed in a 4190–4200 box with small lower highs and printed a fresh session low at 4189.96. The shelf high near 4217.70 sits close to the 23.6% retracement of the Monday decline.
Support: 4,189.96
Resistance: 4,200.13, 4,217.70, 4,231.59
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4200 round number breaks the compression box and eases the lower-high read
Loss of the 4189.96 session low extends the lower-low chain
Reclaim of the 4217.70 shelf high (near 23.6% of the Monday decline) would mark the first structural recovery; 4231.59 lower high above
London open in ~2h may break the Asian range
Fed speakers (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and JOLTS Tue could shift the read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, now compressing in a 4191–4200 band.
Gold gapped down from Friday's 4286 close, then slid through the Asia session to a 4191.46 session low below the 4200 round number, pressured by hawkish Fed pricing and a 5%+ 10y yield. The last seven bars have held in a tight 4191–4200 band, with RSI(14) near 33, not oversold, as London open approaches.
Support: 4,191.46
Resistance: 4,200.13, 4,217.70, 4,230.00
What it said to watch
M15 closes back above the 4200 round number and the 4217.7 lower high would break the Asia-session lower-high chain; the 38.2% slide fib (~4223) and the 4230 prior low sit just above
A break of the 4191.46 session low extends the lower-low sequence out of the compression band
04:46 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 27 · price 4,198.08
Gap-down lower highs and lows, tight base 4191.5–4203.
Monday's Asia session gapped about 15 below Friday's 4286 close and slid through 4200 to a 4191.5 session low as hawkish Fed pricing and a firm yield backdrop weighed. Late in the Asia session, price is compressing between the session low and the 4203.1 bounce high, with RSI(14) near 27. The prior shelf at 4217.5 and the Friday low at 4254.6 sit overhead.
Support: 4,191.50
Resistance: 4,203.10, 4,217.50, 4,254.60
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4191.5 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaiming the 4203.1 bounce high and 4200 opens the prior shelf at 4217.5, near the 38.2% fib of the Monday selloff (~4223)
A retrace into the 4254.6 friday low would mark a full retrace of the gap
London open and Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem 11:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
04:31 UTC
Downtrend, flattening at lows · RSI 32 · price 4,199.10
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia, now basing just under 4200.
Monday opened roughly $15 below Friday's 4286 close. The Asia drop then broke $4,200 and reached a 4191.5 session low, with 5%+ yields and October hike pricing weighing on gold. Price is now compressing just under the 4200 round number, capped by the 4203.1 swing high, and RSI(14) near 32 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,191.50
Resistance: 4,203.10, 4,217.50, 4,254.60
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4203.1 swing high reclaims 4200 and reads as a failed break; the 23.6% retracement of the Asia drop sits near 4211
Failure to hold the 4191.5 session low resumes the lower-low sequence heading into London open
4217.5 range top and the 4254.6 friday low mark the resistance band on any rebound
US 10y yield holding above 5% keeps pressure on any bounce off the lows
Monday's Asia session opened with a gap below Friday's 4286 close. Price then fell through Friday's 4254.56 low to a session low at 4191.46, as hawkish Fed repricing and 5%+ yields kept pressure on gold. The slide has stalled in a tight 4191–4200 consolidation just under the round number, with RSI(14) near 29 and the lower-high sequence from the 4217.70 swing high still intact.
Support: 4,191.46
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,208.71, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4200 round number would mark a failed break of the level flagged in the digest.
A break of the 4191.46 session low extends the lower-low chain.
A recovery through the 4208.71 lower high and the 4217.70 swing high would put the 38.2% of the Monday drop fib near 4223 in play.
London open in about 3h typically expands the Asian range; ATR is running near 950 pips.
Monday's Asia session gapped below Friday's 4286 close. The Monday drop cut through the 4254.56 friday low and the 4200 psych level to a 4191.46 session low, the lowest since Aug 5, as hawkish Fedspeak and 5%+ yields kept the USD bid. Late in Asia, price is compressing just under 4200 with RSI(14) near 25 and the 4217.7 lower high capping bounces.
Support: 4,191.46
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.70, 4,254.56
What it said to watch
M15 hold back above the 4200 psych level would turn the break into a false break
M15 close above the 4217.7 lower high breaks the Asia lower-high sequence and puts the 38.2% of the Monday drop near 4223 in play
Loss of the 4191.46 session low extends the downtrend into the London open
Friday low at 4254.56 is the upper boundary of the Monday drop; a reclaim would negate the breakdown read
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia; $4,200 broken.
Asia session opened below Friday's close and gold ground lower all session, with the $4,200 round number giving way and a session low printed at 4191.49. The digest ties the slide to Hammack's hawkish comments, a two-month-high USD and 10y yields above 5%. RSI(14) near 17 is stretched after the 4230 breakdown area failed, and the last bars are compressing just under $4,200.
Support: 4,191.49
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.70
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4200 round number would turn the break into a false break
Break below the 4191.49 session low extends the lower-low chain into London open
Recovery through the 4217.70 swing high, near the 23.6–38.2% zone of Monday's drop fib (4211–4223), breaks the lower-high sequence
4230 breakdown area caps any bounce while below it
Tuesday Fedspeak (Musalem, Goolsbee, Williams) and JOLTS sit beyond this window but could reset the read
03:32 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at lows · RSI 20 · price 4,196.80
Lower highs and lower lows through Asia session.
The Asia session gapped lower from Friday's 4286 close. The Asia leg then cut through the 4254.56 Friday low in a lower-high chain as hawkish-Fed and 5% yield pressure weighed. Price is now pinned at the 4200 round number, just above the 4194.26 session low, with RSI(14) near 20.
Support: 4,194.26
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,217.70, 4,254.56
What it said to watch
Acceptance below the 4194.26 session low confirms the break of the 4200 round number
An M15 close above the 4217.7 lower high breaks the lower-high chain and opens the 38.2% retrace of the Asia leg near 4225
Friday low at 4254.56 now overhead as the level that gave way
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range extremes
03:17 UTC
Downtrend, oversold at 4200 · RSI 22 · price 4,200.46
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia open; Friday low broken, pausing at the session low.
Asia gapped down from Friday's 4286 close and broke the friday low at 4254.56. Lower highs carried price to a 4194.27 session low, with a hawkish Fed and 10y yields above 5% weighing. Price is pausing at the 4200 round number with RSI(14) near 22, and the 4217 shelf capped the last bounce.
Support: 4,200.00, 4,194.27
Resistance: 4,225.20, 4,254.56
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4217 shelf and the fib 38.2 at 4225 would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4194.27 session low extends the leg below the 4200 round number
Reclaim of the friday low at 4254.56 would turn the breakdown into a false break
No US data before London; Tue Fedspeak/JOLTS and Wed ADP/PCE are the next scheduled catalysts
02:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 21 · price 4,205.98
Gap-down open, then lower highs and lower lows through Asia.
Gold gapped about $15 lower at the Asia session open and extended to a 4205.22 session low after the 4231 broken supp area gave way. Hammack's inflation-expectations warning kept the USD bid. The only bounce so far stalled at the 4217.70 bounce high, and RSI(14) near 20 shows the move is stretched, with price pressing the 4200 round number.
Support: 4,205.22, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,217.70, 4,231.00, 4,254.56
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4200 round number extends the lower-low sequence from the session low
Reclaim of the 4217.70 bounce high breaks the lower-high chain, opening a retrace toward the 4231 broken supp and fib 38.2% near 4232
Friday low at 4254.56 caps the fib 61.8% zone if a deeper retrace develops
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, then JOLTS at 14:00 UTC, could shift the read once London and NY are under way
Lower highs and lower lows since the Asia gap-down, now a tight base above 4205.94.
Monday's Asia session gapped down from Friday's 4286 close. Price then cut through the Friday low at 4254.56 to a session low of 4205.94 as hike bets and a firm USD kept gold heavy. Price is now compressing in a 4210–4218 band beneath the bounce high at 4217.70, with RSI(14) near 23 and every rebound capped below the lower-highs line.
Support: 4,205.94, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,217.70, 4,225.62, 4,254.56
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4205.94 swing low exposes the 4200 psych level
Recovery above the 4225.62 swing high breaks the lower-highs line and opens the 38.2% fib near 4232
A return above the friday low at 4254.56 would negate the range break
London open typically expands the Asian range; ATR(14) is near 940 pips
02:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing near lows · RSI 25 · price 4,215.25
Lower highs and lower lows since the Monday gap down; Friday range broken.
Gold gapped lower at the Asia open from 4271.17 and has printed lower highs since. It cut through the 4254.56 friday low and the 4230 area as Fed hike bets and 5%+ yields keep the USD firm. Price is compressing above the 4205.94 session low with RSI(14) near 25, and the 4225.62 lower high is capping the bounce.
Support: 4,205.94, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,225.62, 4,254.56, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4205.94 session low exposes the 4200 round number
M15 close above the 4225.62 lower high breaks the lower-high chain; 38.2% of the asia leg fib sits near 4232
Reclaim of the 4254.56 friday low puts price back inside Friday's range, with the 4271 gap open above
London open in ~5h typically expands the Asian range; ATR near $9.5 per bar
Monday's Asia session opened roughly $15 below Friday's 4286 close. Price then sold through the 4254.56 friday low and the $4,230 prior floor to a 4207 session low, as elevated yields and Fed-hike pricing kept gold heavy. RSI(14) near 16 is deeply oversold, with no bounce yet off the lows.
Support: 4,207.15, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,230.00, 4,254.56
What it said to watch
A return above 4230 (prior floor, near the 38.2% fib of the asia high to session low leg) would mark the break as a false break
Acceptance below the 4207 session low exposes the 4200 round number
Rebounds stalling below the friday low at 4254.56 keep the lower-high sequence intact
The London open is about 5h away and could extend or unwind the thin Asia move; weekend Iran/Hormuz headlines remain a swing factor
01:31 UTC
Downtrend, oversold · RSI 16 · price 4,220.82
Gap-down open, lower highs, broke Friday low and 4230.
Mid-Asia session, gold gapped below Friday's 4286 close and sold off from the 4275.16 session high. It cut through the Friday low at 4254.56 and the 4230 broken floor to a 4214.54 session low, with Fed-hike bets and 10y yields above 5% still weighing. RSI(14) at 16 is deeply oversold, and the last two bars are stalling near 4220.
Support: 4,214.54, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,230.00, 4,254.56, 4,275.16
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4214.54 session low exposes the 4200 round number
Reclaim of the 4230 broken floor eases the breakdown read; the 50% fib of the gap-open leg near 4245 and the friday low at 4254.56 sit above
Descending highs from the 4275.16 session high stay intact while price holds below 4265
London open liquidity could extend or unwind the Asia move; Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak are the next scheduled risk
01:17 UTC
Downtrend, extended into Asia · RSI 21 · price 4,222.48
Gold gapped about $15 lower at the Monday Asia open. It printed lower highs off the 4275.16 session high, then sold off through the 4254.56 Friday low and the 4230 broken floor to a 4214.54 session low, with 10y yields above 5% and October hike bets the backdrop. RSI(14) near 21 is stretched but not yet sub-20, and ATR runs about $9 per bar through the Asian sell-off.
Support: 4,214.54, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,230.00, 4,254.56, 4,275.16
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4230 broken floor would turn the break into a false break
Failure to hold the 4214.54 session low exposes the 4200 round number
A reclaim of the 4254.56 Friday low, through the lower highs line, negates the intraday downtrend read
The 4275.16 session high caps the gap; London open liquidity may extend or reverse the Asian sell-off
Tue JOLTS/Fedspeak and Wed ADP/PCE are the next scheduled catalysts for the 4230 floor
Weekend gap lower, then lower highs through Asia; Friday low broken.
Gold gapped roughly $15 below Friday's 4286 close, leaving the gap fill unmet, and the Asia session has printed a string of lower highs from 4275, with 4266 the latest lower high. The 01:30 broker-time bar broke the 4254.56 Friday low on a 2,170-pip range, and price is now sitting on the 4226 session low near the digest's $4,230 floor, with RSI(14) near 17 and 10y yields above 5% still weighing.
Support: 4,226.00, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,254.56, 4,266.23, 4,286.06
What it said to watch
Holding the 4226 session low / $4,230 floor would mark the first stall of the Asia leg with RSI deeply oversold
A move back above the 4254.56 friday low would turn it into a false break
Failure at 4226 leaves the 4200 round number as the next reference
The lower highs trendline and the 4266 lower high cap any Asia bounce
London open liquidity and 10y yield moves vs 5% could shift this read before Tue JOLTS/Fedspeak
00:46 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after weekend gap · RSI 21 · price 4,238.98
Gap-down open, lower highs, Friday low broken.
The Asia session opened about $15 below Friday's 4286.06 close and has set lower highs since, with the latest bar breaking Friday's low at 4254.56 to a 4228.55 session low. That tests the $4,230 floor as Fed-hike bets and a 10y yield above 5% keep gold heavy. RSI(14) near 21 is deeply oversold after the flush, and ATR is about 735 pips.
Support: 4,228.55, 4,200.00
Resistance: 4,254.56, 4,275.16, 4,286.06
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 4254.56 friday low would turn the break into a false break; the 38.2% fib of the 4300–4228 drop sits at 4256, on the same area
Failure to hold the 4228.55 session low and the $4,230 floor exposes the 4200 round number
A break of the Sunday lower-high line, then the 4275.16 asian high, would put the 4286.06 gap fill in play
Thin Asia liquidity; the London open is the first full-participation test of the breakdown
Tue 14:00 UTC JOLTS plus Fedspeak, then Wed ADP/PCE, could materially shift this read
00:31 UTC
Downtrend, extending in early Asia · RSI 24 · price 4,249.00
Weekly-open gap down, lower highs, break of Friday low.
Gold gapped roughly $15 lower at the weekly open, down from Friday's 4286 close. The Asia session has since printed a sequence of lower highs and broken below the Friday low at 4254.56, reaching a session low of 4248.66 with RSI(14) near 24 and price below both EMAs. The move extends Friday's retreat from the 4315.66 Friday high, with 10y yields above 5% and October hike bets still weighing.
Support: 4,248.66, 4,230.00
Resistance: 4,254.56, 4,271.17, 4,286.06
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the friday low at 4254.56 would mark the break as a false break
Continued acceptance below the 4248.66 session low leaves the 4230 thu low area as the next reference
An M15 close above the 4271.17 weekly open breaks the lower-highs sequence and puts the 4286 gap fill in view
Thin Asia liquidity; next scheduled catalysts are Tue JOLTS and Fedspeak, then Wed ADP and PCE
00:16 UTC
Downtrend, oversold after gap lower · RSI 23 · price 4,255.80
Lower highs since Monday Asia open, testing Friday NY low.
Asia session opened about $15 below Friday's 4286 close and has printed lower highs since, with the session low at 4253.4 sitting just under Friday's 4254.6 NY low. RSI(14) near 23 is oversold. The weekend digest is unchanged, with the 10y above 5% and ~70% October hike odds keeping gold heavy below the 4266 swing highs.
Support: 4,253.43, 4,230.00
Resistance: 4,266.23, 4,275.16, 4,286.06
What it said to watch
Sustained trade below the 4253.4 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4230 Thursday bounce area
Recovery through the 4266 swing highs breaks the lower-highs line; the 4275.2 session high, then the 4286 Friday close gap fill, sit above
Tue JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Musalem/Goolsbee/Williams remarks on October hike odds could materially shift this read
00:04 UTC
Downtrend since Monday gap-down open · RSI 34 · price 4,256.41
Lower highs through Asia, probing Friday low.
Asia opened roughly $15 below Friday's 4286 close and has printed lower highs since, now retesting the Friday low at 4254.56 with RSI(14) near 34. Friday's post-Michigan flush to that level was bought back toward 4300; with 10y yields above 5% keeping gold heavy, this is the second test of the level.
Support: 4,254.56, 4,230.00
Resistance: 4,266.23, 4,275.16, 4,286.06
What it said to watch
M15 close below the friday low at 4254.56 extends the lower-high sequence toward the 4230 thu floor
Close above the 4266 lower high breaks the Asia trendline and opens the 4275 gap open
Reclaim of 4286 completes the gap fill and negates the Monday downtrend read
London open liquidity can reprice the thin Asian range; JOLTS and Fedspeak Tue 14:00 UTC, ADP/PCE Wed