Lower highs from 4510.88; 4244-4300 base broken, retracing the flush.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510.88 early-month peak. Monday broke the 4244-4300 base, and the flush ran to the 4110.84 swing low as 10y yields near 5.27% and October hike bets pressed. The rebound off the 4142.31 bounce low is now pressing into the fib 38.2 at 4189 and the 4200 break level, with price still below both EMAs, EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR(14) expanded to about 34 points.
Support: 4,142.31, 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,189.10, 4,200.00, 4,244.29
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4200 break level and fib 38.2 would turn the move into a deeper retracement toward the 4244 prior low
Rejection at 4189-4200 followed by a loss of the 4142.31 bounce low would put the 4110.84 swing low back in play
A break of the 4095-4110 support zone would extend the lower-low sequence toward 4000
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read
17:05 UTC
Downtrend, early bounce off lows · RSI 30 · price 4,155.65
Lower highs since 4510; range floor broken.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510 peak, sliding from 4399 to 4315 while holding a multi-week range floor near 4235-4245. Monday's gap lower broke that range floor, with rising Fed-hike bets and 5%+ yields driving the move to a 4110 swing low. Price is now carving a small higher low near 4122 under the bounce high at 4175, with EMA20 near 4200 below EMA50 and ATR(14) expanded to about $34.
Support: 4,122.11
Resistance: 4,175.15, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the ema20/4200 area undercuts the breakdown read and puts the 50% fib near 4213 in play
A move back into the old range floor at 4235-4245 retests broken support against the lower highs line
Loss of the 4122 higher low and 4110 swing low confirms a fresh lower low in the downtrend
ADP and PCE on Wed 30 Sep 12:15-12:30 UTC, plus Waller and Williams remarks today, could materially shift this read
13:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing after range break · RSI 34 · price 4,154.43
Lower highs since 4510 peak; 4235 range floor broken, fresh lower low at 4110.
Gold has printed lower highs since the early-month 4510 peak, and the two-week 4235–4400 range gave way on Monday as 10y yields near 5.27% and October hike pricing drove a break of the round number 4200 and a leg to the 4110 swing low. The last three bars are drifting higher on narrow ranges against an expanded ATR(14) of about 3450 pips, with price still below both EMAs and the 38.2% retracement of the 4315 lower high to 4110 drop sitting near 4189, just under 4200.
Support: 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,235.03
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4235 range floor would recast Monday's break as a false break
Failure to hold the 4110 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward 4100 psych support
Rejection at the round number 4200 / fib 38.2% keeps the bounce corrective inside the lower-highs line
JOLTS and Fedspeak today, then ADP and GDP Wed, could materially shift this read
A move through the 4315 lower high breaks the downtrend structure
09:05 UTC
Downtrend, extended after range break · RSI 35 · price 4,140.84
Lower highs from 4510.88, range floor lost, basing above 4110.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510.88 early-month peak. The 4235–4400 range held for two weeks, then gave way on Monday as the hawkish Fed repricing and 5.27% 10y yields drove a break through 4200 to a 4110.84 swing low. The last four bars are small-bodied and holding above that low, with price below both EMAs and the EMA20 sitting near 4200. ATR(14) is easing back toward ~36 after the breakdown expansion, and the fib 38.2 of the sell-off near 4189 is the first overhead reference.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,189.00, 4,244.00
What it said to watch
JOLTS 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak into Waller at 19:00 UTC today, then ADP Wed, could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4110.84 swing low extends the downtrend toward the 4100 round number
H4 close back above 4200/ema20 would put the prior range floor at 4244 back in play
Lower highs trendline near 4330 caps the broader structure while intact
05:05 UTC
Downtrend, extended and oversold · RSI 29 · price 4,132.67
Lower highs since 4399.53; range floor broken, new swing low.
A lower-high sequence from the 4399.53 swing high capped last week's 4244-4315 range. Monday's range break through the range floor ran to a swing low at 4110.84, as the 10y yield near 5.27% and October hike repricing lifted USD. Price sits below a bearish-stacked EMA20/EMA50 with ATR(14) expanded to ~3660 pips and RSI near 29 in oversold territory, while the fib 38.2 at 4221 sits just under the old range floor.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,221.10, 4,244.29, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4110.84 swing low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4000 round number
Recovery through the fib 38.2 at 4221 and back above the range floor at 4244 would recast Monday's move as a false break
H4 close above the lower high at 4315.66 and the lower-high trendline breaks the downtrend structure
JOLTS today 14:00 UTC, Williams/Waller Fedspeak and Wed ADP (f/c 72K) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
01:04 UTC
Downtrend, extension after range break · RSI 28 · price 4,126.15
Lower highs since 4510.88; range floor broken.
Gold has printed a lower-high sequence since the 4510.88 early-month peak, with rallies capped along a descending lower-highs line and the last lower high at 4315.66. Monday's yield-driven liquidation, with the 10y at 2007 highs and October hike bets firming, broke the 4235-4255 range floor that had held three times. The move printed a 4110.84 swing low with both EMAs overhead. ATR(14) has expanded to about 3,700 pips and RSI is oversold, so the trend is extending rather than compressing.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,244.29, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4244 range floor would mark the breakdown as a false break
Failure to hold the 4110.84 swing low exposes the 4000 psych handle
38.2% fib retracement near 4221 is the first retracement marker; lower-highs line and 4315.66 lower high cap above
JOLTS (Tue 14:00 UTC) and the Fedspeak cluster could materially shift this read
ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC, f/c 72K) is the first high-impact print for the yield-gold link