Higher lows off a 4111 double bottom, testing below the 4200 break level.
Monday's gap-down open near 4271 unwound into a 164-dollar sell-off through Asia and London, and a NY-session flush printed the week low at 4110.84. Tuesday built a double bottom near 4111 and a string of higher lows, then climbed back above EMA(20) (~4161) and the ema50 (~4173) late in the NY session as WTI slid below $90. RSI(14) has recovered to ~58. Price now sits between the 38.2% retracement and the fib 50% at 4193, just under the Tuesday high at 4185.22 and the 4200 break level.
Support: 4,173.40, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,185.22, 4,193.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially shift this read
An H1 close above the 4200 break level, clearing the fib 50%, opens Monday's breakdown zone toward 4230
Loss of the ema50 and the higher-low trendline, last anchored at 4142.31, exposes the week low
Failure to hold the 4110.84 week low confirms a lower low and resumes the Monday sell-off structure
Monday opened on a gap below Friday's 4286 close and sold off through Asia and into NY, bottoming at the 4110.84 week low as yields and the dollar pressed higher. Tuesday's oil-led bounce, helped by the JOLTS miss, has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, and a late-NY push cleared the 4175 prior high to a 4185 day high, with price back above the ema20 (~4157) and RSI(14) near 68. The recovery sits between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the Monday drop fib, just under the 4200 round number, while the weekly open at 4271 caps the broader structure.
Support: 4,175.15, 4,157.00, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,185.22, 4,200.00, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4200 round number would clear the 50% of the Monday drop fib (~4193) and shift focus toward the 4271 weekly open
Rejection at the 4185 day high and a slip back below the 4175 prior high would mark the late-NY push as a failed extension
Loss of the ema20 near 4157 and the higher lows trendline around 4150 would put the 4110.84 week low back in play
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) on Wednesday could materially shift this read via yields near 5.27%
Monday breakdown from 4271 to 4111; Tuesday higher lows from a double bottom, now above 4175.
Gold gapped below Friday's close at the 4271 weekly open, and Monday's selling ran through Asia and London before NY extended it to a 4111 week low. A double bottom at 4111/4113 has since produced a Tuesday sequence of higher lows along a rising trendline, helped by the oil-driven bounce the digest describes. Late NY cleared the 4175 prior high and now sits just under the fib 50% of Monday's drop at 4193 and the 4200 break level, with RSI(14) in the mid-60s and price back above both EMAs.
Support: 4,175.15, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,193.00, 4,200.00, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC ADP and Core PCE (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 4200 break level extends the retracement toward the 4271 weekly open
Failure back below the 4175 prior high turns the NY push into a false break
A break of the rising trendline and the 4142 swing low ends Tuesday's higher-low sequence
Loss of the 4111 week low resumes Monday's downtrend
Monday impulse lower, Tuesday higher lows into fib 38.2%.
Gold gapped into a one-way slide from Monday's 4271 weekly open. The Asia and London sessions did most of the damage, and NY printed the week low at 4110.84 as yields and the USD pushed higher. Tuesday's rebound has built a series of higher lows, with the JOLTS miss lifting the NY session to 4175. The late-NY pullback to the 4142 higher low held near ema20 before the move back to the tuesday high. Price is now pressing the 38.2% retracement of Monday's drop, which lines up with ema50 near 4173, and RSI(14) sits in the mid-60s. The round number at 4200, the broken level, and the fib 61.8% at 4212 sit just overhead.
Support: 4,173.00, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,177.44, 4,200.00, 4,212.39
What it said to watch
An H1 close back above the 4200 round number reclaims the broken level and brings the fib 61.8% at 4212 into play
Rejection at the tuesday high 4177 and a slip back under ema50 keeps the rebound a flag within the downtrend
Loss of the 4142 higher low breaks Tuesday's rising trendline and reopens the week low at 4110.84
ADP (Wed 12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (Wed 12:30 UTC, f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Gold opened the week with a gap down to 4271 and broke 4200 in the Asia session as yields and the USD pushed higher. London extended the slide, and NY printed the week low at 4110.84, with RSI(14) making higher lows (17→26) across Monday's successive new price lows. Tuesday's JOLTS-assisted recovery has built a sequence of higher lows, and pullbacks are finding EMA(20) near 4151. The day high at 4175.5, which sits on the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop, has capped two tests, leaving price pinned at EMA(50) in a shallow flag.
Support: 4,151.00, 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4175.5 day high (38.2% fib) opens the round number 4200, the level broken in Monday's Asia session
Failure to hold the 4142 higher low breaks the higher-lows trendline and exposes the 4110.84 week low
A reclaim of 4200 puts the 4271 weekly open back in view; below it, Monday's breakdown structure stays intact
Waller at 19:00 UTC today and ADP/Core PCE on Wed 12:15/12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday impulse lower, then Tuesday higher lows capped at the 38.2% fib.
Monday's collapse from the 4275 area to the 4110.84 week low dominates the window. It ran from the Asia session through NY hours as the 10y hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed, leaving price below EMA(50) but back above EMA(20). Tuesday's bounce built higher lows along a rising trendline from the 4113 Asia low and stalled at the 4175.15 tuesday high, the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop. The NY-hours pullback that followed found the trendline at the 4142.31 session low, and the JOLTS miss gave only mild relief with yields pinned near highs.
Support: 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,175.15, 4,193.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 4175.15 tuesday high (38.2% fib) opens the path to the 4193 50% fib and the 4200 round number
Break of the rising trendline and the 4142.31 session low ends Tuesday's higher-low sequence
Failure to hold the 4110.84 week low confirms downtrend continuation
Williams and Waller tonight, then ADP and core PCE Wednesday 12:15–12:30 UTC, could materially shift this read
Monday impulse lower; Tuesday rebound capped at 38.2% fib, higher-lows line broken.
Gold gapped below Friday's 4,286 close to a 4,271 weekly open. The Monday drop ran through Asia and London as the 10y yield spiked, and NY hours extended it to a 4,110.84 week low. Tuesday's Asia retest near 4,113 held, and a JOLTS-miss rebound built a line of higher lows into the NY open, but it stalled at the 4,175 tuesday high. That level is the 38.2% fib of the Monday drop, with EMA50 near 4,173 just below it. NY hours have since pulled price back under EMA20 at 4,149 and through the Tuesday higher-lows line, and RSI(14) has eased to ~47.
What it said to watch
Hourly close below the 4,136 higher low exposes the 4,111 week low, which has already held twice
A reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 4,175 tuesday high would open a deeper retracement toward the 4,200 psych level
Waller at 19:00 UTC tonight, then ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday, could materially shift this read
Monday lower low at 4110.84; Tuesday higher lows capped at 38.2% fib.
Gold slid from the 4271 week open to the 4110.84 week low. Most of Monday's drop came through the Asia and London sessions, with a final NY-session flush as the 10y yield spiked to 5.27%. Tuesday's higher-low sequence lifted price back above EMA(20), and the JOLTS miss pushed it into the 4175 tuesday high, where the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop and EMA(50) converge; the rejection there has price slipping back onto the rising trendline near EMA(20), with RSI(14) only in the low 50s.
Support: 4,136.03, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,175.15, 4,200.00, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4175 tuesday high (EMA50 / 38.2% fib) opens the 4193–4200 round number area; the 4271 week open stays out of reach without a 4200 reclaim
Close below ema20 and the 4136 higher low breaks Tuesday's rising trendline structure and puts the 4110.84 week low back in focus
Fedspeak from Williams (18:00 UTC) and Waller (19:00 UTC) on October hike signalling could shift this read tonight
ADP (12:15 UTC) and PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) on Wednesday could materially move price out of the 4110–4175 bounce range
Double bottom at 4111–4113 with higher lows; bounce testing 38.2% fib.
Monday's gap-lower weekly open at 4,271 started a one-way selloff through Asia and London. NY added a final flush to the 4,110.84 weekly low as 10y yields hit 2007-era highs and October-hike bets firmed. Since then a double bottom at 4,111–4,113 has produced a string of higher lows on Tuesday, with price reclaiming EMA(20) and the ~4,148 neckline in London, and the JOLTS miss in the first hour of NY lifted it into the 4,175 area, where the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop meets EMA(50) and the session high was capped. RSI(14) has recovered to ~54 from deeply oversold, a recovery that still sits inside the broader downtrend and below the 4,200 round number.
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4,175 (38.2% fib, EMA50) opens the 50% fib near 4,193 and the 4,200 round number
Holding above 4,200 would put the 61.8% fib near 4,212 in view, with the weekly open at 4,271 further out
Loss of the rising line and ema20 near 4,151 would signal the bounce fading; a break of the 4,122 swing low brings the 4,111 weekly low back into focus
Fed speakers today (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) and Wed ADP 12:15 / PCE 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows off 4110.8 week low, still below EMA(50) and the broken 4200.
Gold gapped lower at Sunday's weekly open of 4271.2, then slid about $160 through Monday's Asia and London sessions as the US 10y hit 5.27% and October hike bets built, basing at the 4110.8 week low into the London-NY transition. Tuesday's rebound has formed a double bottom and a run of higher lows, with RSI(14) back in the low 60s and price above EMA(20) but still below EMA(50). Price is now pressing the 38.2% fib of the week's drop near 4172, with the broken 4200 level and Monday's Asia shelf the next resistance band above.
Support: 4,148.60, 4,122.10, 4,110.80
Resistance: 4,172.00, 4,200.00, 4,271.20
What it said to watch
Acceptance above the 38.2% fib at 4172 opens the path to the broken 4200; a rejection there keeps the bounce corrective
An H1 close below the 4148.6 pullback low breaks the higher lows trendline and shifts focus to the 4122.1 higher low
Loss of the 4110.8 week low resumes the downtrend sequence
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC and Wednesday's 12:15 UTC ADP could materially shift this read
The weekly open at 4271.2 stays the upper reference while the Sunday gap remains unfilled
Double bottom at 4111-4113 after Monday's impulse lower; Tuesday printing higher lows.
Monday opened with a gap below Friday's 4286 close. Price sold off through Asia and London, then flushed to the 4110.84 week low at the NY open as the US 10y yield hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. A second test near 4113 in Tuesday's Asia session held, and London lifted price through the 4148 neckline to a 4161 Tuesday high, just above the 23.6% retracement of the Monday drop. Price now holds above EMA(20) but below EMA(50), with RSI(14) back in the mid-50s from oversold.
Support: 4,148.20, 4,140.00, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,161.33, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, followed by the Fedspeak slate into 19:00, could materially shift this read
H1 close back below the 4148 neckline and EMA(20) near 4140 would undercut the double bottom and break Tuesday's higher lows
H1 close above the Tuesday high of 4161 would bring the 38.2% fib near 4173 into play, with the broken 4200 level above
Failure at the week low of 4110.84 would resume the Monday downtrend; ADP at 12:15 UTC Wed is the next high-impact risk
Gold gapped under Friday's 4286 close into a 4271 weekly open and sold off through Monday's Asia session. It extended to a 4110.84 week low in NY hours as 10y yields hit 2007 highs and October-hike bets firmed. Tuesday has printed a run of higher lows off 4113, and London lifted price to a 4161 day high and back above EMA(20) near 4145, with RSI(14) recovering from oversold to the mid-50s. The bounce has only reached the 23.6% retracement of Monday's drop and sits well below EMA(50), so the move reads as a flag within the larger decline.
Support: 4,145.00, 4,122.00, 4,111.00
Resistance: 4,161.00, 4,174.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4122 higher low breaks the rising lows and puts the 4111 week low back in play
Acceptance above the 4161 day high and the 38.2% fib at 4174 opens the path to the 4200 round number, the broken support
Holding EMA(20) near 4145 on pullbacks keeps the corrective structure intact
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, then Fedspeak through 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP (12:15 UTC) and GDP (12:30 UTC) are the next high-impact risks for the yield-driven move
Lower highs from weekly open; higher lows forming since Tuesday Asia.
Monday's flush from the 4271 weekly open started in Asia, extended through London and hit 4110.84 in the first hour of NY, with 5.27% 10y yields and October hike pricing weighing on gold. Tuesday's Asia retest held 4113, and London has carried price back above EMA(20) near 4145 on a higher low at 4136. The result is a tentative double bottom pressing its ~4148 neckline, still capped by Monday's lower high at 4171 and the broken 4200 level.
Support: 4,145.00, 4,136.00, 4,111.00
Resistance: 4,171.00, 4,200.00, 4,271.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4171 lower high (38.2% fib) opens the 4193–4200 area, the broken 4200 level
Hourly close back below the 4136 higher low breaks the Tuesday higher-low trendline and puts the ema20 reclaim at risk
Failure to hold the 4111 monday low negates the double bottom and confirms a fresh lower-low
Musalem at 11:30 UTC, JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Waller/Williams later today could materially shift this read; ADP on Wed
Recovery toward the 4271 weekly open requires reclaiming 4200 first
Lower highs from 4275 weekly open; tight 4111–4149 range with higher lows since Monday NY.
Gold unwound from the 4275 weekly open through Monday's Asia and London sessions. It then flushed to the 4110.84 Monday low in the first hours of NY as 10y yields tagged 5.27% and October hike pricing firmed. Since then H1 has compressed into a 4111–4149 range, with Tuesday's Asian and London sessions printing higher lows at 4113 and 4122, while the range top near 4149 (the 23.6% retracement of the Monday drop) has capped four attempts. Price is now sitting on EMA(20) near 4144 with RSI(14) back in the high 40s after Monday's oversold readings.
Support: 4,143.60, 4,122.10, 4,110.80
Resistance: 4,149.00, 4,171.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4149 range top clears the 23.6% level of the Monday drop and opens the 4171 swing high, then the broken 4200 area near the 50% retracement
Loss of EMA(20) and the 4122 higher low breaks the Tuesday higher-lows line and exposes the 4111 Monday low
A close below the 4111 Monday low confirms downtrend continuation after the pause
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and the Fedspeak slate (Musalem 11:30, Waller 19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields and USD
ADP on Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the next high-impact risk for the range
Broke below the 4244–4316 range; tight 4111–4149 base below EMA20.
Gold opened the week on a gap below Friday's 4286 close and broke out of the prior 4244–4316 range. It slid through the 4200 breakdown level in Asia and London, then fell further in the first hour of NY to the 4111 weekly low as 10y yields hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Since Monday's close, price has based in a 4111–4149 band, printing Tuesday higher lows but capped at the 4149 session high and the Monday lower-highs line, with EMA(20) flattening near 4143, RSI(14) recovering to about 43, and the 38.2% level of the Friday high–Monday low fib near 4189.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,148.99, 4,171.29, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4149 session high and the Monday lower-highs line opens a test of the 4171 london high
Break of the Tuesday higher-lows line and the 4111 weekly low resumes the downtrend toward the 4100 round number
4189 fib / 4200 breakdown zone is the area to watch for rejection or acceptance on any recovery
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak into Waller at 19:00 UTC, then ADP on Wed at 12:15 UTC, could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4275; 4111–4149 base with higher lows on Tuesday.
Gold gapped below Friday's 4286 close and fell from the 4271 weekly open to a 4110.84 Monday low in the first hour of NY as 10y yields hit 5.27%. Most of that damage came through Asia and London before the NY flush. Since then a 4111–4149 base has formed, with higher lows at 4122 and the 4136 london low along a rising-lows trendline. The bounce is stalling at the 4149 tuesday high, which is also the 23.6% fib of Monday's drop, and closes are pinned just under EMA(20) near 4143. RSI(14) near 41 has recovered from oversold but not reclaimed 50.
Support: 4,136.03, 4,122.11, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,148.99, 4,173.60, 4,193.00
What it said to watch
H1 close above 4149 (tuesday high / 23.6% fib) opens the 38.2% fib at 4173.6, then the 50% fib near 4193
Loss of the 4136 london low and the rising-lows trendline near 4129 shifts focus back to the 4122 higher low
Failure to hold the 4110.84 monday low confirms a lower low, with 4095 flagged below in the digest
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP at 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the larger data risk to the base
Monday's session carried a $165 slide from the 4275 weekly open area to the 4110.84 week low into the NY open, as 10y yields hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Price has since compressed in a 4111–4148 box below the EMA(20) near 4143. The 4148 double cap sits just under the 23.6% fib of the week's drop, and Monday's late retest of the week low printed a lower close on a higher RSI(14), a bullish divergence out of deeply oversold readings, with RSI now near 37.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,143.20, 4,148.17, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148 double cap and ema20 opens the path to the 38.2% fib at 4171
Failure to hold the 4111 week low exposes the 4095 floor
A break of the Asia higher lows trendline returns focus to the week low
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak running into Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Monday impulse lower from 4275 to 4111; shallow base with a double test of 4111-4113 and a Tuesday higher low.
Gold opened the week on a gap lower from Friday's 4286 close and sold off through Asia and London on Monday. A final NY-session leg printed the 4110.84 week low as the 10y yield hit 2007 highs and October hike bets firmed. Since then Tuesday's Asian session has retested and held 4113, then set a higher low at 4122. The bounce is now pressing into EMA(20) near 4144, just under Monday's 4148 bounce high, with RSI(14) back to ~44 from oversold.
Support: 4,122.10, 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,144.00, 4,148.17, 4,171.30
What it said to watch
H1 closes above EMA(20) and the 4148 bounce high would open the 38.2% fib of Monday's drop at 4171, which also lines up with Monday's spike high
Loss of the 4122 higher low returns focus to the 4111 week low. Below that sit the 4100 psych level and SocGen's 4095 support.
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak (Williams 18:00, Waller 19:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
ADP on Wednesday at 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the next high-impact US data risk
Lower highs below EMA20; tight range above Monday low.
Monday's slide from the 4275 weekly-open area broke last week's 4244–4254 floor. Selling ran through Asia and London before a final flush to the 4110.84 monday low during NY hours, as the 10y yield hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Tuesday's Asian session has held a 4111–4140 range under the asia high and a line of lower highs, with price still below EMA20 (~4143) and RSI(14) recovering only into the low 40s. The Monday NY rebound stalled at 4171, the fib 38.2 of the week's impulse.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,140.28, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4110.84 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 round number and the 4095 digest support
H1 close above the 4140 asia high and EMA20 breaks the lower highs line and exposes the fib 38.2 at 4171
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Williams/Waller Fedspeak later today could materially shift this read
ADP on Wednesday at 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the next high-impact data risk
Lower highs since Monday open; tight Asian range above the 4110 low.
Gold opened the week lower at the 4271 weekly open and slid through Asia and London on Monday, breaking last week's 4244–4315 range. The NY session then flushed it to the 4110.84 week low as the 10y hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Tuesday's Asian range (4113–4140) is holding above that low, but price sits below the EMA(20) near 4145 and the lower highs line, with RSI(14) back to ~38 from sub-30 readings.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,145.00, 4,160.00, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4145 ema20 and the lower highs line would mark the first break in Monday's sequence
Reclaim of the 4160 broken base, near the 23.6% fib at ~4159, opens the 38.2% area near 4189
Failure below the 4110.84 week low extends the downtrend toward the 4100 round number
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC, plus Fedspeak through Waller at 19:00 UTC, could materially shift this read
ADP Wed 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the next high-impact risk for yields and gold
Lower highs from week open; tight base at 4111-4139 after Monday's flush.
The week opened with a gap under Friday's 4286 close and sold off from 4275 through the Asia and London sessions. NY hours then extended the drop to the 4110.84 monday low as 10y yields hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Since then price has held a 4111-4139 base, with Tuesday's Asia dip stalling just above the monday low, while the declining ema20 near 4147 caps the bounce below Monday's 4171 lower high.
Support: 4,111.00, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,147.00, 4,171.30, 4,195.00
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 4111 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4100 round number
A sustained move above the ema20 at 4147 and the 4171 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and brings the 4195 shelf (50% of Monday's drop) into view
JOLTS and Consumer Confidence at 14:00 UTC plus Tuesday's Fedspeak cluster could materially shift this read
Wednesday's ADP at 12:15 UTC is the next high-impact risk for the Monday drop fib levels
Range break lower Monday; lower highs intact, basing at 4111–4113.
Monday broke last week's 4244–4315 range lower. Selling began off the 4271 weekly open in Asia, extended through London, and the NY session flushed to the 4110.84 week low as the 10y hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Tuesday's Asia session retested the week low at 4113 and bounced, leaving a potential double bottom. Price is still below EMA(20) near 4148, which lines up with the ema20/neck from Monday's NY bounce high, and RSI(14) has recovered only to ~39.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,100.00
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,173.60
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 4148 ema20/neck confirms the double bottom and opens the 4160 breakdown shelf, then the 38.2 fib at 4174
Failure to hold the 4111 week low resumes the downtrend toward the 4100 round number
Tuesday JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and the Fedspeak cluster through Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Wednesday ADP at 12:15 UTC (f/c 72K) is the next high-impact yield and USD driver
Lower highs and lower lows after Monday's range break; tight base above Monday low.
Monday broke last week's 4244–4315 range lower after a weekend gap, with selling through Asia and London and a NY-session flush to the 4110.84 monday low as the 10y yield hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. The rebound stalled at 4148, where the 23.6% fib of Monday's drop meets ema20, and the Asian range is now compressed beneath the 4129 session high and a trendline of Monday's lower highs. RSI(14) near 31 sits just above oversold, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00
Resistance: 4,129.00, 4,147.00, 4,171.29
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 4110.84 monday low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4095 socgen level
Recovery through ema20 near 4147 and the lower-highs trendline would shift the read to a corrective bounce toward the 4171 swing high
Failure to clear the 4129 session high keeps the Asian range capped beneath Monday's fib 23.6%
JOLTS at 14:00 UTC and Tuesday's Fedspeak cluster could materially shift this read
The week opened on a gap below Friday's 4286 close. The Monday drop then ran from the 4275 weekly open to the 4110.84 Monday low into NY hours, breaking last week's 4244–4316 range as the 10y yield hit 5.27% and October hike bets firmed. Since then price has based between twin lows near 4111 and the 4148 bounce high, which sits at the 23.6% fib, while holding below both EMA(20) and EMA(50), with RSI(14) recovering only to the mid-30s. Asia drift is nudging the lower-highs line from the 4171 lower high, but no hourly close has cleared the bounce high.
Support: 4,110.84, 4,095.00, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,148.17, 4,171.29, 4,271.17
What it said to watch
Hourly close above the 4148 bounce high breaks the lower-highs sequence and opens the 4171 lower high
Failure to hold the 4110.84 Monday low exposes the 4095 SocGen level, then the 4000 round number
JOLTS Tue 14:00 UTC and Fedspeak through Waller at 19:00 UTC could materially shift this read; ADP Wed 12:15 UTC is the next high-impact print
Only a return toward the 4271 weekly open would unwind Monday's range break