21:08 UTC
Downtrend since Aug 25 peak, below both EMAs · RSI 35 · price 4,124.93
Lower highs and lower lows, mid-Sep range floor broken.
Gold has printed a chain of lower highs since the Aug 25 peak at 4696.74. Monday's roughly 4% flush broke the 4235–4255 range floor that held through mid-September and wiped out about 80% of the August rally, down to the sep 28 low at 4110.84. The decline tracks oil-driven inflation fears, US 10y yields at 5.27% and firming October hike pricing; price sits below both D1 EMAs with RSI(14) near 35, not yet oversold, and back inside the July 3960–4200 range with the july base near 4000 and the june low at 3942.64 below.
Support: 4,110.84, 3,942.64
Resistance: 4,235.03, 4,334.60, 4,399.53
What it said to watch
- A daily close back above the 4235 range floor would turn Monday's break into a false break
- Failure to hold the sep 28 low at 4110.84 exposes the july base near 4000, then the june low at 3942.64
- The lower-high trendline from the Sep 3 high runs near 4325, alongside the fib 38.2 of the Aug–Sep decline at 4334.6; a close above the sep 18 high at 4399.53 breaks the lower-high sequence
- ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) on Wed Sep 30 could materially shift this read; ISM and NFP follow later in the week