21:09 UTC
Downtrend since late-August peak · RSI 41 · price 4,187.68
Lower highs and lower lows from 4696, testing the August breakout base.
Gold has printed a lower-high sequence since the 25 August peak at 4696.74, with every September rally capped under a falling trendline. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 4297 and EMA(50) near 4312, and EMA(50) has started to roll over. Monday's >3% drop to the 4110 sep low, the lowest close since early August, came as long-end US yields surged. The rebound then met rejection at the 4200 round number, with the soft Core PCE miss swamped by yields. Price is holding just above the aug base near 4019, and RSI has recovered to about 41 from near-oversold 35.
Support: 4,019.20, 3,959.70
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,315.00
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 4200 round number needed to neutralise this week's rejection
- Close above the 4315 trend pivot (EMA50 plus falling trendline) breaks the lower-high chain; the 4399 lower high sits above
- Failure to hold the 4110 sep low exposes the aug base near 4019, then the july low at 3960
- A retrace to the 38.2% of the aug high–sep low fib (~4335) would test the trend pivot zone
- ISM Manufacturing Thu 14:00 UTC and Friday NFP could materially shift this read via US yields