Lower highs since 4510; rebound capped at fib 38.2.
Lower-high sequence runs from 4510 through 4399 and the 4315.66 lower high. Monday's yield-driven break took price to the 4110.84 swing low. The rebound from there stalled almost exactly at the fib 38.2 retracement near 4219, and the soft Core PCE bounce faded as long-end yields kept climbing. Price now sits back under the ema20 near 4184 with EMA20 below EMA50, testing the 4142 pullback low, while ATR(14) around 3,050 pips shows volatility still elevated after the crash.
Support: 4,142.30, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,184.00, 4,219.26, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 4142 pullback low puts the 4110.84 swing low back in focus; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Recovery through the ema20 and a close above the 4219 fib 38.2 would mark the first higher high since the crash
Descending trendline off the 4399 and 4315.66 lower highs still caps the broader structure
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC, alongside Waller, could materially shift this read
Friday NFP is the week's main event risk for the swing structure
Lower highs since 4510.88; lower low at 4110.84, bounce capped near fib 50%.
Lower-high sequence intact from 4510.88 through 4399.53 and 4315.66. Monday's yield-driven selloff broke the 4244 prior low floor and printed a weekly low at 4110.84. The soft PCE and lower crude fuelled a bounce to a 4219.26 bounce high, just above the 50% fib of the 4315-4110 leg, which was rejected back below 4200, leaving price under both EMAs with EMA20 below EMA50. ATR(14) near $31 remains elevated after the Monday expansion, with no sign of compression.
Support: 4,136.03, 4,110.84, 4,000.00
Resistance: 4,219.26, 4,244.29, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
H4 close back above the 4219.26 bounce high and the 4244 prior low would break the lower-high sequence and put the 4315.66 lower high back in play
Loss of the 4136 minor low exposes the 4110.84 weekly low; failure there confirms a fresh lower low with the 4000 psych level next
Rejection line of lower highs from 4399.53 caps above current price near 4255
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC, with Waller, could materially shift this read
Fedspeak tonight (Cook, Goolsbee, Kashkari) and US long-end yields remain the main driver of range expansion
Lower highs from 4510 top; rebound off 4110 swing low.
Gold has printed a three-week sequence of lower highs beneath a descending lower-high line from 4434. Monday's flush from the 4315 lower high broke the 4235-4255 lows and ran to a 4110 swing low. The rebound since has built a higher low at 4142 and stalled at a 4202 rebound high, right at the 38.2% retracement and flat against EMA20. Both EMAs remain stacked bearishly, with EMA50 near the 61.8% fib around 4237, and ATR(14) has eased from Monday's expansion. The core PCE miss (3.0% vs 3.3% y/y), released after the last closed bar, gives the bounce a dovish tailwind, while the hot GDP and ADP beats temper it.
Support: 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,202.29, 4,237.42
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 4202 rebound high and the 4200 handle extends the correction toward the 61.8% fib at 4237, where EMA50 and the prior lows cluster
Rejection below 4200 keeps the lower-high sequence and the lower-high line intact
A break of the 4142 higher low re-exposes the 4110 swing low; losing that extends the downtrend
ISM Manufacturing and Prices Paid Thu 14:00 UTC and Friday's NFP could materially shift this read via yields
Lower highs since 4510.88; range floor broken, bounce to 38.2% fib.
Gold has carved a sequence of lower highs along the descending lower-highs trendline from the 4510.88 peak. Monday's yield-driven selloff broke the 4244-4315 range and ran to the 4110.84 swing low. The bounce has since printed a higher low at 4165.77 and is now pressing the 4200 round number, which sits near the 38.2% retracement of the 4315.66 swing high to 4110.84 leg. ATR(14) near $31 is easing back from Monday's expansion, and price is only just back above a flattening EMA20 while holding well below EMA50.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,244.29, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; a hot print keeps 4200 as a cap
H4 close above the 4200 round number exposes the 61.8% retracement near 4237 and the broken prior low at 4244.29
Rejection at 4200 followed by a break of the 4165.77 higher low returns focus to the 4110.84 swing low
Only a push back through the 4315.66 swing high and the lower-highs trendline would break the downtrend structure
Lower highs from 4510; prior floor at 4235-4255 broken, bounce stalling at 38.2% fib.
Gold has printed lower highs since the 4510 peak. Monday's yield-driven flush, with the US 10y at 5.27%, broke the 4235-4255 prior floor and ran to the 4110.84 weekly low. The bounce has carved a higher low at 4142 but capped at the 4187.59 bounce high, right at the 38.2% fib of the 4315.66 swing high to 4110.84 leg. Price remains below both EMA20 and EMA50, with EMA20 under EMA50, and ATR near 33 dollars reflects the expanded post-flush regime.
Support: 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,240.00, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Core PCE/GDP (12:30 UTC) today could materially shift this read; a soft print risks a push through the bounce high
H4 close above 4187.59 and the 38.2% fib would open the 50% retracement near 4213 and the prior floor at 4240
Failure to hold the 4142 higher low puts the 4110.84 weekly low back in play; a break there extends the lower-low sequence
Any recovery toward the 4315.66 swing high would still sit beneath the lower highs trendline from 4510
Lower highs since 4510.88; multi-week range floor broken.
Gold has printed a clean sequence of lower highs since the early-month 4510.88 peak, capped along a lower-high trendline into the 4315.66 lower high. Monday's yield- and oil-driven flush broke the 4235–4245 multi-week range floor and ran to a 4110.84 swing low, with ATR(14) expanding to about $32. The bounce off the 4142 higher low now sits at the 38.2% retracement near 4189, just under the EMA20 and the 4200 breakdown level, with EMA20 still below EMA50.
Support: 4,142.31, 4,110.84
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,244.29, 4,315.66
What it said to watch
Core PCE and ADP at 12:30/12:15 UTC today could materially shift this read
H4 close above the 4200 breakdown level opens the path to the 4244 prior low and the 61.8% retracement near 4237
Failure to hold the 4142 higher low re-exposes the 4110.84 swing low
A break above the lower-high trendline and the 4315.66 lower high would invalidate the lower-high sequence