XAU/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 30 September 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the XAU/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 49 · price 4,155.27
Post-PCE spike reversal, lower highs, now boxed 4147–4160.
The soft Core PCE print spiked gold through the London high to 4219.26. That was a false break: the move fully reversed as yields rose, sinking through the prior low at 4165.77 to a NY low of 4147.45. Early Asia session is compressing between the asia low at 4151.98 and the range top at 4160.44, with RSI(14) flat near 49 and the fib 38.2 of the drop sitting at 4174.88.
Support: 4,151.98, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.44, 4,165.77, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 ny low resumes the post-PCE lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 4160.44 range top reopens the prior low at 4165.77 and the fib 38.2 near 4175
US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing/Prices Paid with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Failure to hold the 4151.98 asia low puts the range floor under immediate pressure
Post-PCE spike reversed into lower lows; early Asian range 4152–4160 capped under swing high.
The Core PCE miss spiked gold to 4219 at 12:30 UTC. Strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data then pushed yields higher, and the move fully reversed to the 4147 NY low. Late NY and the early Asia session have compressed into a 4147–4160 band. Price is flat on EMA20 and below EMA50, RSI ~51, and the Asian range (asian low 4152 / asian high 4160) sits under the swing high at 4164.
Support: 4,151.98, 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.44, 4,163.76, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4147.45 NY low, taking out the 4150 round number, extends the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the asian high at 4160 and the swing high at 4164 (lower highs line) exposes the 38.2% fib at 4175
Thu Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM Manufacturing with Waller (14:00 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
23:17 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in early Asia · RSI 48 · price 4,152.60
Post-PCE spike rejected at 4219; lower low at 4147.45, now compressing in a tight range below both EMAs.
The soft Core PCE print spiked gold to 4219 at the release, but the move fully reversed as growth beats lifted yields, leaving a lower low at the 4147.45 swing low late in NY. Early Asia session is compressing between the 4150 round number and a 4160.4 range top, with price below both EMAs and RSI(14) neutral near 48.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.44, 4,165.77, 4,174.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 swing low extends the post-PCE lower-low sequence
Close above the 4160.4 range top opens the 4165.8 prior low, then the 38.2 fib near 4175
Thu Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (Prices Paid vs 72.3) could shift yields and this read
Tight 4147–4160 range under a lower-high sequence from 4219.
The soft Core PCE print lifted gold through the 4202 London high to 4219.26 at 12:30 UTC. Rising yields on strong growth data then drove the false break into a $72 slide to the 4147.45 ny low. Since 17:45 UTC price has held a 4147–4160 range, sitting below EMA20/50 into early Asia session with RSI(14) near 48. Kashkari at 22:00 UTC drew no visible reaction.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.44, 4,165.77, 4,174.90
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.44 range high reopens the prior asian low at 4165.8
Break below 4150 round number and the 4147.45 ny low extends the post-PCE leg lower
Post-PCE fib 38.2% near 4174.9 is the first retracement cap if the range resolves higher
Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Mfg 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
22:48 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a tight range · RSI 40 · price 4,156.01
Post-PCE lower highs; 4147–4160 range into early Asia.
The soft Core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to 4219.26. Rising long-end yields and strong growth data then drove a rejection and a slide to a 4147.45 ny low. Since then price has compressed between that low and the 4160.40 range top into the early Asia session, holding above 4150 psych, with RSI(14) near 40 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.40, 4,165.80, 4,176.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.40 range top opens the 4165.80 asian low
Reclaiming the 4176.44 london low, near the 38.2% of the pce spike fib, would neutralise the post-PCE downtrend
Break of 4150 psych and the 4147.45 ny low extends the lower-low sequence
Kashkari headlines overnight; Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC Thursday could materially shift this read
Tight early-Asia range above rising lows, below PCE spike fib.
The soft Core PCE print drove a false break above 4200 to 4219 at 12:30 UTC. It fully reversed as yields climbed on strong growth data, and NY carved a 4147.5 ny low. Early Asia is holding a narrow 4155–4160 range above rising lows and 4150 psych, still capped below the 23.6% PCE spike fib near 4164 and the prior asian low at 4165.8.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.50
Resistance: 4,160.40, 4,165.80
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.4 session high and the 4164–4166 zone (23.6% fib, prior asian low) invalidates the consolidation read
Break of the rising lows and failure to hold 4150 psych and the 4147.5 ny low confirms a lower-low
Kashkari headlines tonight and Thursday's ISM Manufacturing (14:00 UTC) with Waller could materially shift this read
22:17 UTC
Post-PCE downtrend, basing in a tight range · RSI 40 · price 4,156.48
4147–4160 range with micro higher lows after a false break above 4200.
The soft Core PCE print spiked gold to 4219 in the first hour of NY. That break above 4200 failed as growth beats lifted yields, and the PCE drop ran to a 4147.45 session low. Since then price has held a tight consolidation under the 4160.4 range top into the daily rollover, printing micro higher lows along rising support, sitting just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 40.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.40, 4,165.80, 4,176.40
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 4160.4 range top opens the 4165.8 asian low, which lines up with the 23.6% retracement of the PCE drop fib
A break of rising support and the 4150 psych level exposes the 4147.45 session low
Reclaiming the 4176.4 london low would neutralise the post-PCE reversal
Kashkari remarks now, then Thursday's jobless claims and ISM during NY hours, could materially shift this read
22:05 UTC
Downtrend, pausing in consolidation · RSI 58 · price 4,159.43
Post-PCE selloff, tight range 4147–4163 with rising lows.
The Core PCE miss spiked gold to 4219 at 12:30 UTC. That was a false break above London's ~4202 high, and it met rejection as rising yields pulled NY down to a 4147.45 swing low. Since then, late NY and the new Asia session have held a 4147–4163 consolidation with a rising-lows line, and price sits just above the 4150 range floor.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.50, 4,176.50
What it said to watch
Kashkari speaking at 22:00 UTC, as the new Asia session opens, could break the range
M15 close below the 4147.45 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 4163.5 range top opens the 4176.5 pre-pce low, near the 38.2% of the pce spike fib
Loss of the rising-lows line puts the 4150 range floor back in play
ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC Thu is the next scheduled volatility risk
21:47 UTC
Down from post-PCE spike, now flattening · RSI 51 · price 4,156.96
Tight consolidation 4147–4163 after NY sell-off, rising lows.
The soft Core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a false break above the London high to 4219.26. The move was rejected as yields rose on strong GDP and Chicago PMI, and NY cut through the Asian low at 4165.77 to a session low of 4147.45. Late NY has compressed into a 4147–4163 consolidation above the 4150 range floor, with rising lows and RSI(14) near 51.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,165.77, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163 range top and the 4165.77 Asian low reopens the 38.2% fib near 4174.9
A break of the rising lows and a close below the 4150 range floor exposes the 4147.45 session low
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, then ISM Manufacturing at 14:00 UTC Thu, could materially shift this read
Post-PCE false break above 4200 reversed; 4147–4160 range with small higher lows.
The Core PCE miss lifted gold to 4219.26 at 12:30 UTC. That spike was rejected as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats pushed yields higher, and the unwind cut through the asian low at 4165.77 to a session low at 4147.45. Late NY hours have compressed into a 4147–4160 band under the range top at 4160.26, printing small higher lows, with RSI(14) neutral near 49 and price below the 23.6% fib of the 4219–4147 drop.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,160.26, 4,165.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4160.26 range top brings the asian low at 4165.77 and the 23.6% fib near 4164 into play
Failure to hold the 4150 psych level and the 4147.45 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, as Asia opens after the daily rollover, could shift this read
Thu jobless claims (12:30 UTC) and ISM/Waller (14:00 UTC) could shift this read
Post-PCE false break above 4202 reversed; rising-lows base above 4147.
The soft Core PCE spike at 12:30 UTC broke the London high to 4219 and was fully rejected as yields climbed, and the drop cut through the Asian low at 4165.8 to a session low of 4147.45. Late NY hours have gone flat between the 4150 round number and a 4163.8 bounce high. Rising lows are forming off the base, and RSI(14) sits neutral near 51.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.80, 4,165.80, 4,174.90
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 session low breaks the rising lows and resumes the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 4163.8 bounce high and the 4165.8 Asian low puts the 38.2% fib of the PCE spike at 4174.9 in play
Fed's Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could shift the yield-driven tone during the Asia session
Thu Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC and ISM Manufacturing / Waller 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled volatility risk
21:07 UTC
Downtrend since PCE spike, stalling in a tight range · RSI 48 · price 4,156.96
Lower highs from 4219.26, late-NY range 4147–4163 above the swing low.
The soft Core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to 4219.26, but the push through 4200 psych failed as yields climbed. NY hours then unwound the move to a 4147.45 swing low. Since then price has been pinned in a 4147–4163 range after NY close, with RSI(14) near 48 and price sitting on EMA20.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.10, 4,176.70, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 4147.45 swing low and 4150 round number would extend the NY lower-low sequence
Acceptance above the 4163 range top opens the 4176.7 breakdown area, near the 38.2% of the PCE spike fib
4200 psych remains the upper cap after the failed PCE break
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC, into the Asia session, could break the compression
20:47 UTC
Downtrend, stabilising in late NY · RSI 43 · price 4,159.19
Post-PCE lower highs; tight 4147–4160 base with higher lows.
The soft Core PCE spike to 4219 at 12:30 UTC briefly cleared the London high, then reversed as yields rose. The drop cut through the Asian low at 4165.77 and made a session low of 4147.45. Late NY is building a small base of higher lows, with price pressing toward the 4163.76 bounce high and RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 4,154.77, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.76, 4,165.77, 4,176.44
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the bounce high at 4163.76 and the Asian low at 4165.77 would break the lower-high sequence. That zone is also the 23.6% level of the PCE spike fib, and a break opens the 4176.44 pre-PCE low.
Failure to hold the 4154.77 higher low and the base higher-lows trendline reopens the 4147.45 session low.
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read.
20:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 51 · price 4,157.14
Post-PCE reversal, tight base 4147–4158.
The soft Core PCE print spiked gold to 4219.26 at 12:30 UTC, but the move reversed as yields climbed. It was a false break of 4200, and NY cut through the Asian low at 4165.77 to a 4147.45 session low. Late in NY, price is compressing above the 4150 psych level beneath the 4163 swing high, with RSI(14) back to about 51 and the fib 38.2 at 4174.88 overhead.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,165.77, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163 swing high and the 4165.77 Asian low ends the compression and puts the fib 38.2 at 4174.88 in play
Failure to hold the 4150 psych and the 4147.45 session low extends the lower-low sequence
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC is the next headline risk. ISM Manufacturing and Waller at 14:00 UTC Thu could materially shift this read
The 12:30 UTC spike to 4219.26 on the soft Core PCE miss fully reversed as strong GDP and Chicago PMI lifted yields. The selloff broke below the Asian low at 4165.77 and printed a 4163.76 lower high. Late NY is compressing in a 4147–4157 box above the 4150 psych, with the range top capping and RSI(14) flat near 46.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,157.08, 4,163.76, 4,165.77
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4157 range top exposes the 4163.76 lower high and the asian low at 4165.77, which sits near the 23.6% fib of the PCE spike fade
Failure to hold the 4147.45 session low and the 4150 psych extends the lower-low sequence
Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read in thin post-NY trade
Thu Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and ISM/Waller at 14:00 UTC are the next scheduled volatility
20:05 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 40 · price 4,155.51
Post-PCE reversal, tight range 4147–4164 below ema20.
The PCE spike to 4219 in the first hour of NY fully reversed as long-end yields climbed. Price cut through the asian low at 4165.8 and printed a session low at 4147.45. Since 15:15 UTC it has compressed between the 4150 psych area and a range top near 4163.8, holding under the ema20 with RSI(14) around 40 and no extreme.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,163.76, 4,165.77, 4,176.44
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4163.8 range top and the 4165.8 asian low would end the compression and put the 4176.4 pre-pce low and the 38.2% of the pce spike fib (~4175) in view
Failure to hold the 4147.45 session low extends the lower-low sequence after London close
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) remarks could materially shift this read in late NY and early Asia session
19:47 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 4,151.92
Post-PCE reversal from 4219 into a tight 4147–4156 base with lower highs.
The soft core PCE spike to 4219.26 at 12:30 UTC briefly cleared the London high near 4202, then failed. Strong GDP and Chicago PMI lifted yields, and gold broke the asian low at 4165.77 and printed a session low at 4147.45. Since about 17:00 UTC price has compressed in a 4147–4156 range late in the NY session, with RSI(14) near 37 and both EMAs overhead.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,155.92, 4,165.77, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 session low extends the lower-low chain, with the 4110 week low the next reference
Close back above the 4155.92 range top and the 4165.77 asian low turns the read into a corrective bounce toward the 38.2% fib at 4175
Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) and Kashkari (22:00 UTC) could break the current compression
19:32 UTC
Downtrend since PCE spike, compressing late NY · RSI 39 · price 4,154.91
Lower highs from 4219 reversal, tight 4147–4156 box below ema20.
The PCE miss spiked gold to 4219 at 12:30 UTC, a false break above the London high near 4202. It reversed through the asian low at 4165.8 as strong GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI data lifted yields. Late NY is compressing in a 4147–4156 box around the 4150 psych level, capped by the ema20 near 4159, with RSI(14) near 39 and no extreme.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,147.45
Resistance: 4,158.90, 4,163.80, 4,165.80
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4147.45 session low extends the lower-low chain off the PCE drop
M15 close above the 4163.8 lower high and the 4165.8 asian low, where the 23.6% of the PCE drop fib sits, invalidates the downtrend read
Repeated M15 closes back above the ema20 near 4159 would mark the box resolving higher
Fedspeak from Goolsbee at 20:05 UTC and Kashkari at 22:00 UTC could materially shift this read
19:18 UTC
Downtrend, compressing near lows · RSI 37 · price 4,151.04
Post-PCE lower lows, tight 4147–4157 base in late NY.
The PCE spike to 4219 cleared the London high but fully unwound as strong GDP and Chicago PMI prints and rising long-end yields took over, slicing through the asian low at 4165.8 before stalling at the 4147.45 session low. Late NY is now compressing between that low and the 4156.8 range top with RSI(14) near 37. The 23.6% retracement of the spike (~4164) overlaps the broken asian low.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,156.80, 4,165.80
What it said to watch
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could break the 4147–4157 compression either way
M15 close below the 4147.45 session low extends the lower-low sequence, with the 4110 week low the next reference
Close above the 4156.8 range top and reclaim of the 4165.8 asian low / 23.6% spike fib would neutralise the post-PCE downleg
19:05 UTC
Downtrend, momentum fading into late NY · RSI 37 · price 4,151.71
Lower highs after PCE spike reversal; tight base above day low.
The PCE spike to 4219 at 12:30 UTC was a false break above the London high near 4202. Strong GDP and Chicago PMI prints and a 30y yield above 5.64% then reversed it through the asian low at 4165.8, with the drop stalling around the 38.2% level of the PCE spike fib on the way down. Late in the NY session, price is compressing under descending highs, with a lower high at 4155.0 and the day low at 4147.5 holding. RSI(14) is near 37, with ranges contracting.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,155.02, 4,163.76, 4,165.77
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4147.45 day low extends the lower-low chain toward the 4110 week low
Close above the descending highs line and the 4163.8 swing high turns the base into a range, with the asian low at 4165.8 overhead
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could materially shift this read
A 4155.0 lower high capping again keeps the descending-highs structure intact
18:47 UTC
Downtrend, momentum stalling in late NY · RSI 37 · price 4,151.94
Lower highs since the PCE spike, tight 4147–4164 base.
Soft PCE produced a false break above the London high, spiking to 4219.26 at 12:30 UTC. Climbing yields then reversed it through the asian low at 4165.77, and price has been basing between the session low at 4147.45 and the range top near 4163.76 through late NY. RSI(14) sits near 37 with both EMAs overhead.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,110.00
Resistance: 4,163.76, 4,165.77, 4,176.44
What it said to watch
M15 close below the session low at 4147.45 extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4110 prior low
Reclaim of the range top 4163.76 and the asian low 4165.77 (23.6% fib) would neutralise the range-base read
Pre-pce low at 4176.44 sits near the 38.2% fib and caps any deeper bounce
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) could shift yields and this read before Asia
The soft PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to 4219.26. The move was rejected as yields climbed on the strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats. The post-PCE drop broke the Asian low at 4165.77 and set a session low at 4147.45 after London close. A lower high at 4163.07 is capping price, and RSI(14) near 37 is soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,165.77, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4163.07 lower high and the 4165.77 asian low would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4147.45 session low extends the leg toward the 24h low at 4142.31
A retrace of the post-PCE drop into fib 38.2 at 4174.88 is the area to watch for rejection or break
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could materially shift this read via yields
The soft-PCE spike to 4219 at 12:30 UTC was a false break of 4200. It unwound fully as yields climbed on the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats, cutting back through the Asian range. After London close, price has stepped lower in a tight lower-high chain from 4163 and is now pressing the 4147 session low. RSI(14) is near 27, not yet extreme, and the prior low at 4142 sits just below.
Support: 4,147.45, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,165.77, 4,174.88
What it said to watch
M15 acceptance below the 4142 prior low extends the downtrend and clears the 24h range floor
A close back above the 4163 lower high breaks the falling trendline; the 4165.77 asian low and 4175 fib 38.2 sit above
Fed Cook 19:25 UTC, Goolsbee 20:05 and Kashkari 22:00 could materially shift this read via yields
18:05 UTC
Downtrend, grinding lower into late NY · RSI 34 · price 4,150.12
Post-PCE false break above London high, lower highs and lower lows since.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to 4219.26, above the 4202.29 london high, but the move failed as the GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. That false break unwound the whole London advance and cut through the Asian low near 4166. Late NY is grinding lower under a lower highs line off the 4163 base high, with the session low at 4147.60 and the prior low at 4142.31 just below. RSI(14) sits near 34, soft but not oversold.
Support: 4,147.60, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,163.07, 4,175.00, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4147.60 session low exposes the 4142.31 prior low, yesterday's pre-rally base.
A close above the 4163 base high breaks the lower highs line and the late-NY grind. The 38.2% fib of the 4219–4147 drop is next at 4175.
Only a reclaim of the 4202 london high would negate the post-PCE false break.
Fed speakers tonight (Cook 19:25 UTC, Goolsbee 20:05 UTC, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could shift this read in thin late-NY trade.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4219 high, trading below the Asian range.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked gold to a 4219 session high. The move was fully rejected back below psych 4200 as the ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid. Since then price has broken the Asian low at 4167 and ground out a lower-high chain, capped most recently at the 4163 lower high, and is pressing the session low near 4147.6 late in NY hours with RSI(14) near 29.
Support: 4,147.60, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,163.10, 4,167.40, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4167 asian low would reclaim the Asian range and undercut the breakdown read
Failure to hold the 4142 prior low (pre-rally base from yesterday) extends the lower-low sequence toward the Monday 4110 area
A reclaim of the 4163 lower high plus the 38.2% PCE spike retrace near 4175 would mark the first break in the downtrend chain
Fedspeak tonight: Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC. Hawkish framing of the PCE miss could extend the move
Thu ISM Manufacturing 14:00 UTC (f/c 55, Prices Paid 72.3) is the next major catalyst for a retest of psych 4200
Lower highs and lower lows since the 12:30 UTC spike; tight 4150–4163 band late NY.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC briefly lifted gold through the London high to 4219.26. The ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats restored the USD bid, and that false break unwound through NY hours, taking price back through the Asian low at 4165.77. Price is now compressing in a 4150–4163 band just above the session low, with RSI(14) near 32 and price below both EMAs.
Support: 4,150.00, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.77, 4,176.44
What it said to watch
A close below the 4150.00 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4142.31 prior low
Recovery above the 4165.77 Asian low stalls the NY sell-off; the 4176.44 fib 38.2 (prior swing low) is the next cap
Fed speakers tonight (Cook 19:25 UTC, then Goolsbee and Kashkari) could materially shift this read
Lower highs after false break above 4200; Asian range broken lower.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked gold to the 4219.3 pce high above the 4200 cap. Strong ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats reversed the move, and the false break unwound through the 4165.8 asian low into a 4151.0 session low late in NY hours. Bounces are stalling near 4163 and RSI(14) at 27 is soft but not extreme.
Support: 4,151.00, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,165.80, 4,176.40, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4151.0 session low exposes the 4142.3 prior low from yesterday's NY session
A reclaim of the 4165.8 asian low negates the range break; the 4176.4 london low and 38.2% fib near 4177 sit above
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from the 4219 PCE spike; tight 4151–4164 box below the Asian range.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to 4219.26, clearing the 4202.29 London high. ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI beats then turned it into a false break above $4,200, and a chain of lower highs through NY took price back under the 4165.80 Asian low. Since London close, gold has compressed in a 4151–4164 box just above the 4151.40 session low, with RSI(14) near 35 and not stretched.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.80, 4,176.50, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4151.40 session low exposes the 4142.31 prior low at the base of yesterday's 18:00 UTC spike
Reclaim of the 4165.80 Asian low shifts focus to the london low at 4176.50, which sits with the 38.2% fib of the PCE sell-off near 4177
Acceptance back above the 4202.29 london high and the $4,200 psych level would negate the false break read
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could break the post-London box
The PCE miss sparked a 12:30 UTC spike to 4219.26 that failed above 4200 psych. The GDP and Chicago PMI beats then fed a roughly $68 reversal through the london low at 4176.44 and the asian low at 4165.77. In late NY hours price is compressing in a 4151–4164 band above the 4151.40 session low, with RSI(14) near 35 after dipping below 30 and ATR around $10.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.77, 4,176.44, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 4165.77 asian low undoes the range-break read and puts 4176.44 london low / fib 38.2% at 4177 in play
Failure to hold 4151.40 session low exposes the 4142.31 prior low
Acceptance back above 4200 psych would negate the post-PCE false break
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
16:32 UTC
Intraday downtrend after data spike, now basing · RSI 35 · price 4,160.00
Lower highs from the 4219 spike high, Asian range low lost, tight base above the 4151 session low.
The 12:30 UTC PCE/GDP spike to 4219 was a false break above the London high and the 4200 psych level. Strong growth data restored the USD bid and the post-data drop retraced the whole move, taking out the Asian low at 4165.8 and printing a session low at 4151.4. After London close, price is compressing in a 4151–4164 band, RSI(14) near 35 and ATR(14) around 940 pips.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.80, 4,177.30, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4165.8 asian low puts the 38.2% fib of the post-data drop at 4177.3 in play
Failure to hold the 4151.4 session low exposes yesterday's prior low at 4142.3
Supply capping below the 4200 psych level keeps the lower-high sequence intact
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight could materially shift this read after the PCE miss
16:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend since the PCE spike, momentum easing · RSI 36 · price 4,160.72
False break above 4200 fully reversed; lower highs into a basing range above the session low.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC spiked gold above the 4200 psych level to 4219.26. The move was fully rejected as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats kept yields firm, and price unwound through the london low and asian low to a session low at 4151.40. Mid-NY session, price is basing between 4151 and 4162, below both EMAs, with RSI(14) at 36 after dipping into the low 30s.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.77, 4,176.44, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4165.77 asian low would mark the first higher high since the spike
The 4176.44 london low aligns with the 38.2% fib of the PCE spike (~4177) and is where supply capped the last bounce
Failure to hold the 4151.40 session low exposes the 4142.31 prior low
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC) and Goolsbee (20:05 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4219.26, Asian range broken to the downside, basing near 4157.
The core PCE miss drove a 12:30 UTC spike to 4219.26, a false break above the 4200 psych level that reversed within the hour as strong GDP and Chicago PMI data capped the move. The unwind through NY hours cut below the Asian low at 4165.77 to a session low of 4151.40. Price is now flat near 4157 with RSI(14) around 33, heavy but not oversold, and ATR near 1150 pips.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.77, 4,177.32, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
An M15 close below the 4151.40 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4142.31 prior low
A recovery above the 4165.77 Asian low puts price back inside the Asian range and opens the 38.2% fib near 4177
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
A retake of the 4200 psych level would negate the post-PCE rejection
Lower highs from 4219 spike, trading below the Asian range.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through the London high to 4219.26. The GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats then reversed the move, and price has printed lower highs on nearly every bar since, cutting through the london low and the asian low to a session low at 4151.40 late in the NY session. RSI(14) is near 32, soft but not stretched.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.77, 4,176.44, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the asian low at 4165.77 would stall the lower-high sequence. The london low near 4176 and the 38.2% fib of the spike sit above.
Failure to hold the 4151.40 session low exposes the prior low at 4142.31 from yesterday's NY session.
A reclaim of the london high at 4202.29 would negate the false-break read.
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read after the soft PCE.
Lower highs and lower lows since the 4219 spike; Asian range broken to the downside.
The 12:30 UTC PCE miss spiked gold through the London high to 4219.26, but the move was rejected above the 4200 psych level as the GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI beats weighed. Price then unwound the whole session, cutting through the Asian low at 4165.8 to a 4151.40 session low into the London-NY transition, with lower highs capping along a descending line; RSI(14) near 34, ATR(14) around 1030 pips.
Support: 4,151.40, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,165.77, 4,176.44, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the Asian low at 4165.8 and the descending line would stall the post-PCE decline
Failure to hold the 4151.40 session low exposes yesterday's swing low at 4142.3
A bounce into the 38.2% fib near 4177, next to the London low at 4176.4, is where supply capped the last recovery
Acceptance back above 4200 psych would negate the false break
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 4219, fresh session low below Asian range.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC lifted gold through the 4200 psych level to a 4219 PCE high. The whole move was unwound as the growth beats weighed, and a lower-high chain under a falling trendline has since carried price to a 4158 session low, below the Asian range and the 4176 London low. RSI(14) at 37 is soft but not oversold, and ATR is expanded after the release.
Support: 4,158.21, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,176.44, 4,200.00, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4176 london low and the falling trendline would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 4158 session low exposes yesterday's 4142 prior low
The 50% retrace of the PCE spike fib near 4189 caps any rebound below the 4200 psych level
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Lower highs and lower lows since 12:30 UTC spike, testing Asian low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through the London high to the 4219 pce spike high. Beats in ADP, GDP and Chicago PMI then drove a full fade, with nine bars of lower highs through NY hours. Price is back at the Asian low around 4165, where the 4164.4 session low is being tested. RSI(14) near 39 is soft but not oversold, and ATR runs about $11.5 per bar.
Support: 4,164.43, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,176.44, 4,187.59, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
A close below the 4164 session low extends the lower-low chain toward yesterday's 4142 prior low
Reclaiming the 4176 london low breaks the lower-highs trendline and neutralises the fade
Only a return above the 4187.6 asian high reopens the 4200–4219 pce spike zone
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari could materially shift this read
14:47 UTC
Intraday down since PCE spike, lower highs · RSI 42 · price 4,172.91
Post-data false break above London high, full reversal to session low.
The 12:30 UTC core PCE miss spiked gold to 4219.26, above the 4202 London high. The same data dump brought hot GDP, ADP and Chicago PMI prints, and the move fully reversed to a 4164.43 session low, slightly under the Asian range floor. Mid-NY session, price sits below the pre-data low at 4176 and under both EMAs, with RSI(14) near 42 and a sequence of lower highs off the pce spike.
Support: 4,164.43, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,176.44, 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4164.43 session low extends the lower-low sequence toward the 4142.31 prior low
Recovery above the 4176.44 pre-data low, and then the 38.2% fib of the pce spike drop near 4185, would challenge the reversal read
Only a reclaim of the 4202.29 london high negates the false break
Fedspeak from Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee and Kashkari could shift tone after the PCE miss
PCE spike to 4219 fully unwound; price back inside Asian range, below London low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through 4200 to 4219.26. Hot GDP and Chicago PMI then saw the whole move unwind within two hours, a false break of the London high near 4200. Price now sits at 4171, below the London low at 4176.44 and pressing toward the Asian low at 4165.77, with RSI(14) near 44 and ATR(14) around $10.80.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,176.44, 4,187.59
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the asian low at 4165.77 exposes yesterday's swing low at 4142.31
Reclaiming the london low at 4176.44, then the asian high at 4187.59, would neutralise the post-PCE reversal; the 61.8% fib of the drop sits near 4200 and the london high
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
False break above 4200, back inside the London range.
The core PCE miss at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through the 4202 London high to the 4219.26 PCE high, but the strong Chicago PMI helped unwind the entire move to a 4174.20 NY low, leaving a false break above $4,200. Early in the NY session, price sits mid-range below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 48, just above the 4174–4176 double low that formed across late London and NY.
Support: 4,174.20, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4174.20 NY low breaks the intraday double low and exposes the 4165.77 Asian low
Recovery above the 4202 London high, the 61.8% of the PCE spike fib, would negate the false-break read and put the 4219 PCE high back in play
Fedspeak tonight (Cook 19:25, Goolsbee 20:05, Kashkari 22:00 UTC) could materially shift this read after the soft PCE
14:03 UTC
Intraday reversal lower after the PCE spike · RSI 42 · price 4,177.59
False break above the London high, full retrace to the pre-PCE low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC drove a pce spike to 4219.3, clearing the london high at 4202.3. The move was rejected, and five straight lower closes in early NY hours have unwound the whole gain. Price is back on the 4176 pre-pce low, which lines up with the 78.6% level of the asian low–pce spike fib. RSI(14) sits near 42, not stretched, and ATR(14) is about $9.8.
Support: 4,176.20, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,194.00, 4,202.30, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4176 pre-pce low opens the 4165.8 asian low
Reclaim of the 4194 pre-pce high would neutralise the false break read; the london high at 4202.3 is the next cap
Fed's Cook (19:25 UTC), Goolsbee (20:05) and Kashkari (22:00) reacting to the soft PCE could shift yields and this read
False break above 4200 after PCE; price back inside London range, testing swing low.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold through the 4202 London high to a 4219.26 PCE high. Hot GDP/ADP helped unwind the move, and five bars later the spike has fully retraced into early NY. Price now sits back below the 4187.59 Asian high, pressing the 4176.44 swing low. RSI(14) is at 44 and price is under both EMAs, with the higher-low line from the 4165.77 Asian low just beneath.
Support: 4,176.44, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4176.44 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 4165.77 Asian low
Reclaim of the 4187.59 Asian high and then the 4202 London high would negate the false-break read; the 4219.26 PCE high caps above
Chicago PMI (13:45 UTC, current bar) and Fed's Cook at 19:25 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; failed breakout above 4200 back inside London range.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC spiked gold to the 4219.3 PCE high early in the NY session. The break of the 4200 round number and 4202.3 London high did not hold, and the spike has fully faded to 4193, near the 61.8% fib of the 4176.4 swing low-to-PCE high leg. Price is sitting on ema20; the post-PCE low at 4191.2 and the rising lows line from the Asian session are still intact.
Support: 4,191.20, 4,183.00, 4,176.40
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,202.30, 4,219.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4191.2 post-pce low breaks the 61.8% fib and exposes the pre-data low at 4183.0
Failure to hold the 4176.4 swing low breaks the rising lows line and the Asia-to-NY higher-low chain
Acceptance back above the 4200 round number and 4202.3 london high negates the false break; pce high 4219.3 is the next reference
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC, then Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari tonight, could materially shift this read
Higher lows from Asia; PCE spike above london high rejected, back at 4200.
The soft core PCE print at 12:30 UTC lifted gold to a 4219.26 pce high early in NY hours. Price has since given back most of the move to the 4200 psych, back below the 4202.29 london high and sitting between the 38.2% and 50% of the pce leg fib. The higher lows from the Asian 4165.77 low through the 4176.44 london low are still intact.
Support: 4,192.63, 4,176.44
Resistance: 4,202.29, 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4202.29 london high reopens a retest of the 4219.26 pce high
A break of the 4192.63 pce bar low, which lines up with the 61.8% of the pce leg fib, marks a full fade of the PCE move and exposes the 4176.44 london low
A loss of the higher lows trendline would end the intraday uptrend read
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC and Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari later today could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Asia; London high and $4,200 broken on PCE.
Soft core PCE (3.0% vs 3.3% f/c) at 12:30 UTC drove a $27 bar through the London high at 4202.29 and $4,200. It printed a post-PCE high at 4219.26, and price is holding above the 4206.24 post-PCE low in the first hour of NY. Earlier, London broke the Asian high at 4187.59 and set a higher low at 4176.44 on the rising lows line before the data; RSI(14) is near 68, warm but not stretched.
Support: 4,206.24, 4,202.29, 4,187.59
Resistance: 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4202.29 London high and $4,200 marks a false break of the post-PCE move
Hold of the 4206.24 post-PCE low keeps the 4219.26 post-PCE high in play; a close above it extends the breakout
Chicago PMI at 13:45 UTC (f/c 51.2) could shift this read within the next bar or two
Fed's Cook, Goolsbee and Kashkari later tonight; a hawkish lean on the hot GDP/ADP could retest the Asian high at 4187.59
50% fib retrace near 4198 and the rising lows line mark the pullback zone if $4,200 gives way
12:47 UTC
Uptrend, post-PCE spike · RSI 76 · price 4,218.71
Higher lows since Asia; London high and $4,200 broken.
The 12:30 UTC PCE release drove a $26 bar through the 4202.3 London high and the $4,200 cap, printing a 4219.3 spike high. The earlier ADP beat produced only a dip to 4182.9. Rising lows from the Asian 4165.8 and the 4176.4 session low stay intact, and RSI(14) is near 76 after the spike.
Support: 4,202.29, 4,194.86, 4,176.44
Resistance: 4,219.26
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4202.3 london high would mark a false break of the $4,200 cap
Hold above the 4194.9 pre-PCE high, near the 50–61.8% of the PCE leg (4197.9/4192.8), keeps the breakout structure intact
Break of the 4176.4 session low and the rising-lows line negates the higher-low sequence
Post-PCE yield and USD repricing during NY hours; 4219.3 spike high is the area to watch for rejection or extension
12:32 UTC
Uptrend, breakout on data · RSI 66 · price 4,206.28
Higher lows since Asia, London high cleared.
The 12:30 UTC PCE bar pushed through the 4200 cap and the London high at 4202.29, printing a release high of 4209.47. That came after the ADP beat briefly dipped price to 4182.87. Higher lows at 4165.77 and the 4176.44 swing low keep the rising trendline intact, and RSI(14) near 66 is firm but not stretched.
Support: 4,202.29, 4,187.59, 4,176.44
Resistance: 4,209.47
What it said to watch
Release bar is still forming. An M15 close back below the london high at 4202.29 would turn the breakout into a false break.
A drop back under the asian high at 4187.59 (near the 50% fib of the 4165.77–4209.47 swing) would undo the session gains.
Failure to hold the 4176.44 swing low and the rising trendline breaks the higher-low sequence.
ATR near 740 pips points to wide post-PCE swings. Further USD/yield repricing after the data could materially shift this read.
London broke above the Asian range, rejected at 4201-4202, higher low at 4176.
London broke the Asian range high at 4187.6, but supply capped the move twice at 4201-4202, the London high and just above the $4,200 psych level. The pullback held a higher low at 4176.4, a 43% retrace of the 4142-4202 advance, on the rising lows line. Price has bounced to 4191 into ADP and Core PCE, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) around 650 pips.
Support: 4,187.60, 4,176.40, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,194.90, 4,202.30
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read within the next few bars
M15 acceptance above the london high at 4202.3 would break the $4,200 cap
Pre-ADP high at 4194.9 is the first area to watch for rejection or break
A close back below the asian high at 4187.6 and the rising lows line near 4178 exposes the higher low at 4176.4
Failure to hold 4176.4 confirms a lower low and puts the asian low at 4165.8 back in view
12:04 UTC
Range-bound after rejection at 4200, lower highs · RSI 56 · price 4,187.56
London broke above the Asian range, failed at 4202; lower highs, price back at Asian high.
Gold broke the Asian range high near 4187.6 into London and ran to a 4202.3 session high, but supply capped it under $4,200. The pullback held a 4176.4 swing low, just below the fib 61.8% of the leg off the 4165.8 Asian low, and the bounce stalled at a 4192.3 lower high. Price is now sitting on the old Asian high ahead of ADP and Core PCE, with RSI(14) neutral near 56 and ATR(14) around 620 pips.
Support: 4,176.44, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,192.33, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could overwhelm this M15 structure within the next two bars
An M15 close above the 4192.3 lower high breaks the descending trendline; acceptance above the 4202.3 session high clears the $4,200 cap
Failure at the 4176.4 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 4165.8 asian low
Lower highs off the 4202 session high, holding above the 4176 swing low.
Gold broke the Asian range just before London and ran to a 4202 session high, but found no acceptance above $4,200 and faded to a 4176 swing low. The 11:30 UTC push to a 4192 spike high was also rejected, a second lower high, leaving price near the 50% fib of the Asia-London leg around 4186 into ADP and Core PCE. RSI(14) sits flat near 52.
Support: 4,176.44, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,192.33, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC are likely to set the next leg; ATR of about $6.5 understates the release range
An M15 close above the 4202 session high puts $4,200 acceptance in play and voids the lower-high read
An M15 close above the 4192 spike high breaks the lower-highs trendline
Failure to hold the 4176 swing low exposes the 4166 asian low and a full retrace of the Asia-London leg
Lower highs off the 4202.29 London high, price back inside the Asian range.
London broke the 4187.59 Asian high and ran to a 4202.29 London high, but stalled under 4200. From there it faded on a series of lower highs back below the Asian high and down to a 4176.44 session low, beyond the 61.8% of the London leg. Late in the London session, price is back near the 50% (~4184), flat on EMA50, with RSI(14) ~41. The pullback matches the digest's read of gold capped below $4,200 into US data.
Support: 4,176.44, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC, under an hour out, could materially shift this read
M15 close back above the 4187.59 asian high reopens a test of the 4202.29 london high / 4200
Break of the 4176.44 session low exposes the 4165.77 asian low and the base of the London leg
11:17 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs off session high · RSI 36 · price 4,179.64
False break above Asian high, faded back inside the Asian range.
London cleared the Asian high at 4187.59 but was rejected at the 4202.29 session high, just above $4,200, and has faded back into the Asian range on a chain of lower highs. Price is testing the 4179.05 swing low at the 61.8% retracement of the Asian low-to-session high leg, with RSI(14) near 36, and ADP and Core PCE land in about an hour.
Support: 4,179.05, 4,172.18, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (15:15/15:30 broker time) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4179.05 swing low exposes the 4172 asia pivot and the 4165.77 asian low
Close back above the asian high at 4187.59 breaks the lower-highs trendline
Renewed rejection below the 4202.29 session high keeps $4,200 capping
London broke the Asian high, capped at 4200; back inside Asian range.
London open broke the Asian high at 4187.59 and ran to a 4202.29 session high, but supply capped the 4200 psych handle on three tests and price has slipped back below the Asian high. The 4181.41 pullback low sits just above the fib 61.8 of the Asian-low-to-session-high leg (4179.72), with RSI(14) near 42 and price hovering on EMA50 ahead of ADP and Core PCE.
Support: 4,181.41, 4,179.72, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4181.41 pullback low exposes fib 61.8 at 4179.72 and the rising lows trendline near 4177
Break of the 4165.77 asian low unwinds the London advance
Reclaim of the 4187.59 asian high puts the 4202.29 session high and 4200 psych back in focus
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read; acceptance vs rejection at 4200 is the digest's pivot
10:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after failed push through $4,200 · RSI 40 · price 4,183.03
London breakout of the Asian range faded; back below Asian high, lower highs forming.
Asia held a 4165.8–4187.6 range, and the London-open break higher stalled at a 4202.3 session high. That rejection just above $4,200 fits the digest's cap into PCE. Price has since slipped back below the asian high to the 50% fib near 4184 and is testing the 4183.2 swing low beneath a run of lower highs at 4190.8. RSI(14) is near 40 and price is marginally under EMA50.
Support: 4,183.20, 4,179.70, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,187.60, 4,190.80, 4,202.30
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4183.2 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 61.8% fib at 4179.7, then the asian low at 4165.8
M15 close back above the 4187.6 asian high and the 4190.8 lower highs restores the breakout read
Session high at 4202.3 / $4,200 is the area to watch for rejection or break
Asian range break higher, pullback retesting the Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 4187.6 but stalled twice at psych 4200, printing a 4202.29 session high before sliding to a 4183.20 pullback low near the 50% retrace of the Asia-London leg. Mid-London, price is compressing around 4185–4190 on the retest, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and the Tuesday rebound tone intact ahead of US data.
Support: 4,187.60, 4,183.20, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,200.00, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4183.20 pullback low and the rising lows line reopens the Asian range toward the 4165.77 asian low
Acceptance above psych 4200 and the 4202.29 session high breaks the double rejection
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range break, lower highs off 4202, retesting old Asian high.
London broke above the 4187.59 Asian range high and tagged 4201–4202 three times, extending Tuesday's oil- and Williams-driven bounce, but supply capped the move just above $4,200 and the session high at 4202.29 held. The pullback found the london low at 4183.20, near the 50% fib of the 4165.77–4202.29 leg. Price is now retesting the old Asian high beneath a lower high at 4190.79, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 late in the London morning.
Support: 4,183.20, 4,179.72, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,190.79, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the london low at 4183.20 exposes the fib 61.8 at 4179.72 and the asian low at 4165.77
Close above the lower high at 4190.79 reopens the session high at 4202.29 and the $4,200 cap
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; ATR near $6.30 per bar is likely to expand
London broke above the Asian range, rejected at 4,200, now back at the old Asian high.
London open broke the Asian range high at 4187.6 and ran to a session high of 4202.29, but supply capped the move just above the $4,200 break level flagged in the macro digest. Price has retraced to the 38.2% fib near 4188, sitting on the old Asian high with RSI(14) cooled to about 51 ahead of US data.
Support: 4,183.20, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,190.79, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
M15 close below the 4183.20 pullback low puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 4165.77 asian low
Close above the 4190.79 lower high reopens the 4202.29 session high; acceptance above $4,200 changes the rejection read
Fib 50% at 4184 and 61.8% at 4179.7 mark the depth of the correction from the 4,200 rejection
Higher lows from the Asian low; lower high at 4199.60 after the 4200 rejection.
London broke the Asian high at 4187.59 and tagged 4202.29. Three probes of $4,200 failed, in line with a bounce capped by firm yields, leaving a lower high at 4199.60 and a pullback to a 4183.20 swing low near the 50% fib. Price is now retesting the Asian high, hugging the EMA20, with RSI(14) near 58 and ATR around 700 pips.
Support: 4,187.59, 4,183.20, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,199.60, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4202.29 session high clears the $4,200 rejection
Failure to hold the 4183.20 swing low and the rising trendline turns the Asian-high retest into a false break, exposing the 4165.77 Asian low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
London break of Asian high, double rejection at 4200, pullback into fib zone.
London cleared the Asian range high at 4187.59, but two probes through $4,200 (4201.34, then the 4202.29 session high) were rejected. Price has slipped back to the Asian range high and the 38.2%–50% fib zone, below the 4191 prior shelf, with RSI(14) neutral near 53. That keeps gold capped under the $4,200 break level flagged in the macro read, ahead of ADP and Core PCE.
Support: 4,183.20, 4,179.72, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,191.30, 4,202.29
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4183.20 swing low puts price back inside the Asian range and exposes the 61.8% fib at 4179.72
Loss of 4179.72 reopens the 4165.77 asian low
Reclaim of the 4191 prior shelf, then a close above the 4202.29 session high, negates the double top at $4,200
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3% YoY) could materially shift this read; ATR near 725 pips understates a data spike
Asian range break higher, capped at 4200–4202, now retesting the Asian high.
London broke the Asian high at 4187.6 on the oil-led, softer-yields bounce and pushed to a 4202.3 session high, but three tests of $4,200 were rejected. Price is now retesting the Asian high, near the 38.2% retracement of the 4165.8–4202.3 leg, with RSI(14) cooling to about 61.
Support: 4,187.60, 4,179.70, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,202.30
What it said to watch
An M15 close back below the asian high at 4187.6 returns price to the Asian range and exposes the 61.8% fib near 4179.7
A close above the 4202.3 session high clears the $4,200 break level that has capped the bounce
Loss of the asian low at 4165.8 would unwind the entire London breakout
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC, about three hours out, could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher, capped under 4202 session high.
London cleared the asian high at 4187.6 and ran into the $4,200 round number, where two pushes to the 4202.3 session high were rejected. Price is holding a shelf near 4191 mid-London, extending the oil-driven bounce from the 4165.8 asian low, with RSI(14) around 62.
Support: 4,191.20, 4,187.60, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,202.30
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4191 shelf turns the 4201–4202 tops into a double top and exposes the asian high at 4187.6, near the 38.2% retrace
M15 close above the 4202.3 session high clears the $4,200 round number
Loss of the 4165.8 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence from the Asian range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, tight consolidation under 4200.
Gold cleared the 4187.6 Asian high into London open and has probed the 4200 break level three times, setting a 4202.3 session high without a close above 4200. The leg off the 4165.8 Asian low tracks the oil-and-yields-driven rebound, while the 4191.2 pullback low has held. RSI(14) is near 72 and ATR(14) about 690 pips.
Support: 4,191.20, 4,187.60, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,202.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4202.3 session high clears the 4200 cap
Loss of the 4191.2 pullback low exposes a retest of the 4187.6 Asian high
A move back below 4187.6 into the Asian range turns the breakout into a false break, with the 4165.8 Asian low as the next reference
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
08:32 UTC
Uptrend, pressing 4200 · RSI 76 · price 4,199.22
London broke above the Asian range; higher lows from the 4165.77 Asian low.
London broke above the 4187.59 Asian high, extending the rebound off the 4165.77 Asian low as the digest's softer oil and yields read played out. Price is now back at the 4200 psych area, with a double test of the 4201.75 session high and the 4191.24 pullback low holding. RSI(14) near 76 is hot but short of extreme, on a rising support line.
Support: 4,191.24, 4,187.59, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,201.75, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4201.75 session high clears the 4200 psych level the digest flags as the break level
Loss of the 4191.24 pullback low and a close back below the 4187.59 asian high would mark the London move as a false break
Break of the rising support line from the 4165.77 asian low would unwind the rebound structure
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range break higher, tight consolidation beneath session high.
London open broke the Asian range high at 4187.59 and tagged a session high of 4201.34, extending Tuesday's oil- and yield-driven bounce. Price has since stalled just above the $4,200 break level and is holding a 4191–4197 band above the 4191.24 swing low. RSI(14) is near 67 and ATR is about 740 pips.
Support: 4,191.24, 4,187.59, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,201.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above 4201.34 session high clears the $4,200 break level
Close back below 4187.59 asian high, also the 38.2% fib, would turn the breakout into a false break
Failure to hold 4191.24 swing low breaks the post-breakout consolidation; 4165.77 asian low is the range floor
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
08:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at 4200 · RSI 64 · price 4,193.70
Higher lows from 4142; Asian range broken higher at London open.
Gold swept below the Asian range low to a 4165.8 swing low, then broke the asian high at 4187.6 into London open. It tagged a 4201.3 session high and stalled just above the $4,200 break level named in the digest, with RSI(14) cooling to ~64. Higher lows off Tuesday's 4142 low keep the rising trendline intact, and the asian high lines up with the 38.2% fib of the overnight leg.
Support: 4,187.60, 4,183.50, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,201.30
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4201.3 session high would clear the $4,200 cap
Failure to hold the asian high at 4187.6 puts the fib 50% at 4183.5 in play
Break below the 4165.8 swing low ends the higher-low chain and the rising trendline
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
07:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at $4,200 · RSI 65 · price 4,193.63
Higher lows since Tuesday NY; London broke Asian range high.
London took out the Asian high at 4187.59 and tagged a session high of 4201.34 at the $4,200 break level, then met rejection. The pullback is holding above the old range top. The higher-lows chain from Tuesday's post-oil-drop bounce is intact, and RSI(14) at 65 is warm but not stretched.
Support: 4,187.59, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,201.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4201.34 session high clears the $4,200 cap
Failure to hold the 4187.59 Asian high puts price back inside the Asian range
Break of the 4165.77 Asian low violates the higher-lows trendline
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range broken higher at London open, higher lows since 05:15 UTC.
London open broke the Asian high at 4187.59 and printed a session high of 4201.34. Price is now stalling just under the $4,200 level that has capped gold's bounce from 4110, with RSI(14) near 71. The 38.2% fib of the 4165.77–4201.34 leg sits on the Asian high, and the breakout low at 4179.00 lines up with the 61.8%.
Support: 4,187.59, 4,179.00, 4,165.77
Resistance: 4,201.34
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4201.34 session high clears the $4,200 cap noted in the macro read
Loss of the asian high at 4187.59 (38.2% fib) puts the break in doubt; below the breakout low at 4179.00 breaks the rising support
A return below the asian low at 4165.77 fully reverses the range break
ADP 12:15 UTC and Core PCE 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
07:17 UTC
Uptrend, extended into London open · RSI 71 · price 4,195.20
Asian range break higher, higher lows since 4165.8.
Gold cleared the 4187.6 Asian high just before the London open and tagged a 4198.0 session high, just shy of the 4200 round number that the digest flags as the break level. RSI(14) is near 71, hot but normal for the move. The bounce extends Tuesday's oil-driven recovery from the 4165.8 Asian low.
Support: 4,187.60, 4,179.70, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,198.00, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 4187.6 Asian high turns the breakout into a false break
Sustained trade above the 4200 round number clears the digest's break level; rejection there keeps the session high capping price
Failure to hold the 4179.7 swing low breaks the rising trendline off the Asian low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher low at 4165.8, Asian range break at London open.
Gold spent Asia boxed between the 4165.8 Asian low and the 4187.6 Asian high. The London open bar then cleared that high and yesterday's 4185 top to print a 4195.04 session high. That extends the rebound that followed yesterday's JOLTS miss and softer oil. The 4200 round number, the break level flagged in the macro read, sits just overhead, with RSI(14) at 66 warm but not stretched.
Support: 4,187.60, 4,175.00, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,195.04, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close back below the 4187.6 asian high turns the breakout into a false break and returns price to the Asia mid near 4175
M15 close above the 4200 round number clears the session high and the macro break level
Loss of the rising trendline and the 4165.8 asian low breaks the higher-low sequence
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE (f/c 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 4165.77–4187.59, flat tops capping near 4185, higher low off range floor.
Late Asia session, just ahead of London open. Gold has held a 4165.77–4187.59 Asian range after the late-NY surge off the 4142.31 swing low, with the range top rejecting three times near 4185 and the Asian low holding just above the 50% fib of that leg. RSI(14) sits near 51 and price is hugging EMA20 ahead of today's US data.
Support: 4,165.77, 4,159.60, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,185.05, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.59 Asian high breaks the range and opens the 4200 psych level, the digest's break level
Failure to hold the 4165.77 Asian low exposes the 61.8% fib at 4159.6, then the 4142.31 swing low
Repeated rejection at the 4185 range top keeps the range read intact into London
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE (f/c 3.3%) at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
06:17 UTC
Range-bound after NY rally, pressing range top · RSI 57 · price 4,183.97
Asian range 4166–4188, repeated caps at top, lows reclaimed.
Gold is holding the 4166–4188 Asian range after Tuesday's NY rally from 4142 on softer oil. The asian high at 4185–4188 has rejected four tests along the range top. The dip to the 4165.8 asian low, near the 50% fib of the NY rally, was reclaimed within the bar. Price is back at 4184 ahead of London open with RSI(14) near 57.
Support: 4,171.30, 4,165.80
Resistance: 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.6 asian high breaks the range top and brings the 4200 round number into view
Another rejection at the range top followed by a close below the 4171.3 swing low reopens the 4165.8 asian low and the 50% level of the NY rally fib
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
06:03 UTC
Range after NY rally, lower highs forming · RSI 52 · price 4,179.03
Asian range 4165.8–4187.6; false break of range low reclaimed.
Gold is chopping inside a 4165.8–4187.6 Asian range after Tuesday's NY rally off the 4142.3 low as oil eased. Lower highs at 4187.6 and 4185.1 are capping the top. The 05:15 UTC dip below the 4167.4 low to 4165.8 held near the 50% fib of the NY-Asia leg and was reclaimed, with RSI(14) near 52 and London open about an hour away.
Support: 4,171.30, 4,165.80, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,185.10, 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A close below the 4165.8 asian low negates the false break and exposes the 4142.3 ny low
A close above the 4187.6 asian high breaks the lower-high sequence, with the 4200 break level next
Failure to hold the 4171.3 swing low puts the range floor back in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
05:32 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, momentum neutral · RSI 47 · price 4,174.40
Asian range 4165.8–4187.6 with flat lower highs; range low swept and reclaimed.
Late Asia session, price mid-range inside the 4165.8–4187.6 Asian range after NY's rally from the 4142.3 NY low, with the rally stalling below 4200 as yields stay firm. The 05:15 UTC bar swept the asian low and closed back near 4175, close to the 50% fib of the NY-Asia leg. A lower high at 4185.0 caps the upside and RSI(14) sits at 47.
Support: 4,165.80, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,185.00, 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4165.8 asian low breaks the range and exposes the 4142.3 ny low
Close above the 4185.0 lower high and the 4187.6 asian high opens the 4200 round number, the digest's break level
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of either edge of the Asian range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Asian range 4167–4188 with lower highs; price in lower half near 38.2% retrace.
Late Asia session, ahead of London open: gold is holding a 4167–4188 Asian range after the NY-session rally from 4142, which came as WTI slipped below $90. Supply has capped the 4185 range top three times, leaving lower highs, and price is back at the 38.2% retrace near 4170, sitting on the EMA50 with RSI(14) near 45.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,160.23
Resistance: 4,185.05, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167.36 asian low breaks the range and opens the 4160 pullback low near the 61.8% retrace
Close above the 4185 range top and 4187.59 asian high removes the lower-highs read and puts psych 4200 in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
05:04 UTC
Uptrend, compressing in Asia · RSI 58 · price 4,180.64
Flat 4185 range top over higher lows 4167/4171.
The Asia session has compressed under a flat range top near 4185, below the 4187.6 asian high, after Tuesday's NY rally from the 4142.3 ny low as yields and oil eased. Higher lows at 4167.4 (the asian low, which held the 38.2–50% zone of the ny rally fib) and 4171.3 are squeezing price into late Asia, with RSI(14) near 58 and price above EMA20/50.
Support: 4,171.30, 4,167.40, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,185.10, 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4185 range top and 4187.6 asian high opens the 4200 psych level
Break below the 4171.3 higher low, then the 4167.4 asian low, undoes the rising lows and exposes the 4142.3 ny low
London open is the first test of the Asia compression; ATR ~550 pips per bar
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
04:32 UTC
Recovery leg off 4142, now flat and coiling · RSI 54 · price 4,177.81
Asian range 4167–4188 contracting: lower high 4184, higher low 4171.
Late Asia session: gold is coiling mid-range at 4178 inside the 4167–4188 Asian range after yesterday's late-NY rebound from 4142. A lower high at 4184 and a higher low at 4171 form a tight pennant, with RSI(14) near 54 and EMA20 flat as yields and the USD ease slightly.
Support: 4,171.29, 4,167.36
Resistance: 4,184.40, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4184.40 lower high and 4187.59 asian high breaks the pennant higher, with the 4200 round number the next reference
Failure to hold the 4171.29 higher low, then the 4167.36 asian low, breaks the pennant lower and puts the 4142 NY swing back in view
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC (f/c 3.3%) could materially shift this read
Quarter-end flows around the London fix may add noise to any range break
Asian range 4167–4188, lower high at 4184.40 inside it.
Tuesday's NY rally from the 4142.31 ny low peaked at the 4187.59 asian high on the Asia open, a corrective bounce in the digest's read. Late Asia has since printed a lower high at 4184.40 and a swing low at 4171.29, with price back below EMA20 and RSI(14) near 46, still holding above the 4167.36 asian low.
Support: 4,171.29, 4,167.36, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,184.40, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
A break of the 4167.36 asian low exposes the 50% fib of the 4142–4188 leg near 4165 and confirms a lower-low
Losing the 4171.29 swing low keeps the lower-highs sequence intact into London open
Close above the 4184.40 lower high and 4187.59 asian high reopens the 4200 psych level, the digest's breakdown pivot
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Tuesday's late-NY rally from 4142, helped by softer oil, topped at a 4187.59 asian high. Late in the Asia session, rejection left a lower high at 4184.40, and price is back at 4173, pressing the 4171 swing low near the fib 38.2% of that move. RSI(14) sits near 43 and ATR(14) is about 580 pips, with price below EMA20 and holding just above EMA50.
Support: 4,171.30, 4,167.36, 4,159.60
Resistance: 4,184.40, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167.36 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the fib 61.8% at 4159.6
Recovery through the 4184.40 lower high reopens the 4187.59 asian high, with 4200 psych above
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read; quarter-end London fix flows may add noise
03:47 UTC
Rebound stalling, rotating inside Asian range · RSI 43 · price 4,174.61
Asian range 4167–4188, lower high vs higher low compressing.
Late Asia session: gold is rotating inside a 4167.4–4187.6 Asian range after NY hours extended the rebound off the 4122 low, with the 4184.4 lower high now capping under the Asian high. Price has slipped below ema20 toward the 4171.4 higher low, and RSI(14) is near 43, neutral.
Support: 4,171.40, 4,167.40
Resistance: 4,184.40, 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167.4 asian low breaks the Asian range and the higher-low sequence
Close above the 4187.6 asian high reopens the 4200 psych level, the breakdown line flagged in the macro digest
Loss of the 4171.4 higher low leaves only the asian low as range support
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in Asian range · RSI 49 · price 4,179.68
Higher lows from 4122; Asia range 4167.4–4187.6, lower high at 4184.4.
Gold's corrective bounce off 4122 carried through Tuesday's NY session. The move held after the 4142.3 NY low as oil eased. Asia has since set a 4167.4–4187.6 range, with the asian low sitting near the 38.2% fib of the 4142–4188 leg and a lower high at 4184.4 keeping price mid-range with London still ahead.
Support: 4,167.40, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,184.40, 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Close above the 4187.6 asian high breaks the range and brings 4200 psych into view
Failure to hold the 4167.4 asian low exposes the rising trendline and the 4142.3 ny low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Sideways, mid-range after NY rally · RSI 48 · price 4,177.84
Asian range 4167–4188, lower high at 4184.4.
Late Asia session is ranging between the 4167.4 asian low and the 4187.6 asian high, after gold's corrective bounce off Monday's lows extended through NY from the 4142.3 swing low. The asian low held between the 38.2% and 50% fib of that leg, and the rebound stalled at a 4184.4 lower high, with RSI(14) near 48 and price hugging the EMA20.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,184.40, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.6 asian high opens the 4200 psych level, flagged in the digest as the cap on the corrective bounce
Close below rising support near 4173 and the 4167.4 asian low exposes the 50% fib at 4165 and the 4142.3 swing low
A second failure at the 4184.4 lower high keeps the range capped into the London open
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 52 · price 4,179.93
Asian range 4167–4188 above the NY rally base; higher low at 4171.4.
Gold is holding the NY-session rally from 4142, helped by oil's slide below $90. The Asian session has formed a 4167–4188 range, just above the prior high at 4185. The pullback stalled near 38.2% of the NY rally at the 4167 Asian low, and rising support then produced a higher low at 4171.4. RSI(14) is neutral near 52.
Support: 4,171.38, 4,167.36
Resistance: 4,185.22, 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.59 Asian high clears the prior high and exposes the 4200 round number
Failure to hold the 4171.4 higher low and the 4167.4 Asian low breaks rising support
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
02:31 UTC
Intraday uptrend from 4142, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 4,174.51
Asian range 4167–4188, lower high at 4180 after session-high rejection.
Gold's oil-driven corrective bounce from the 4142 NY low ran to a 4187.6 session high early in Asia. That high was rejected twice, and the pullback found demand at 4167.4, just shy of the 50% fib of the move. Price is now mid-Asian range under a 4180.4 lower high, below EMA20 with RSI(14) near 44.
Support: 4,167.40, 4,160.20
Resistance: 4,180.40, 4,187.60, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4167.4 asian low exposes the 4160.2 swing low and the rising support line from 4142
M15 close above the 4180.4 lower high puts the 4187.6 session high back in play, with 4200 psych above
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Asian range 4167–4188 after late-NY breakout from 4142.
A late-NY spike off the 4142 ny low, coinciding with US-Iran deal headlines and softer oil, carried gold to 4185. The Asia session has ranged between 4167 and the 4187.59 session high. The pullback to the 4167 session low held near the 50% fib of that leg on rising support, and price is back above EMA20 around 4175 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167 session low breaks rising support and exposes the 4142 ny low
M15 close above the 4187.59 session high opens the 4200 psych level, the breakdown level flagged in the digest
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE/GDP at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows from the 4142 NY low; Asian range floor lost, first pullback low at 4167.4.
Gold extended the NY rebound from 4142 to a 4187.59 Asian high, with long-end yields still capping the bounce. Price then slipped back through the 4176.8 Asian low and stalled at a 4167.4 swing low, between the 38.2% and 50% fib of the 4142–4187 leg. RSI(14) is neutral near 45 and price sits just under EMA20.
Support: 4,167.36, 4,164.95, 4,160.23
Resistance: 4,176.80, 4,187.59
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 4176.8 asian low reclaims the Asian range and restores the higher-high sequence toward the 4187.59 asian high
Failure to hold the 4167.4 swing low exposes the 50% fib at 4165 and the 4160.2 NY pivot; a break of the rising trendline from 4142 would end the intraday HL chain
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:48 UTC
Intraday advance, now pulling back · RSI 35 · price 4,168.47
Lower highs off 4187.6 session high, price in fib 38.2–50% zone.
The 18:00 UTC surge from 4142 during NY hours, helped by softer Fed tone and oil back below $90, ran to a 4187.6 session high in early Asia, where it met rejection twice. Asia has since printed descending highs and slipped below the 4176.8 prior low. Price is sitting on the 4167.4 session low, between the fib 38.2% and fib 50% levels, with RSI(14) near 35 and price hugging EMA50.
Support: 4,167.40, 4,164.95, 4,159.60
Resistance: 4,176.80, 4,187.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4164.95 fib 50% exposes the fib 61.8% at 4159.6
Reclaim of the 4176.8 prior low and the descending highs line reopens the 4187.6 session high
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:32 UTC
Uptrend, Asian pullback in progress · RSI 37 · price 4,170.83
HH/HL chain off 4113; Asian lower highs into breakout retest.
Tuesday's higher-low chain off 4113 topped with a rejection at the 4187.6 Asian high. Early Asia has since printed lower highs down to the 4167 Asian low, where price is retesting the 18:30 UTC breakout base near the 38.2% fib, with the 4175.5 prior high overhead. The bounce leans on softer oil, while 5%+ yields keep a lid near the highs.
Support: 4,167.40, 4,160.20, 4,142.30
Resistance: 4,175.50, 4,187.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167 Asian low exposes the 4160 swing low at the 61.8% fib
Loss of the 4142 higher low breaks the HH/HL chain
Reclaim of the 4175.5 prior high and EMA20 neutralises the Asian pullback; the 4187.6 Asian high is the cap above
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
01:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back in Asia · RSI 39 · price 4,172.17
Lower highs off 4187.6 Asian high; price back below 4175 prior high.
Tuesday's NY rally off 4142, helped by the oil slide and Williams' softer tone, extended into Asia but was rejected twice at the 4187.6 Asian high. Price has since slipped back below the 4175 prior high and sits at the session low near 4172, with RSI(14) at 39 and the 4167.8 swing low next. The fib 61.8 of the 4142–4187 upswing sits near 4160.
Support: 4,167.80, 4,160.20
Resistance: 4,175.20, 4,187.60
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4167.8 swing low exposes the fib 61.8 near 4160
Reclaim of the 4175 prior high puts the 4187.6 asian high back in play
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from 4142 low; Asia pulling back to its range floor.
Late-NY surge off the 4142 low extended the corrective bounce, helped by the oil slide, into a 4187.59 session high early in the Asia session. That high was rejected, and price is now retesting the asian low at 4176.79 with EMA20 converging just below and RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s.
Support: 4,176.79, 4,175.15, 4,170.30
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4176.79 asian low and the 4175 ny high breaks the HL chain and exposes the 4170 fib 38.2
Close above the 4187.59 session high opens the 4200 psych level, the breakdown level flagged in the macro read
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
00:32 UTC
Short-term uptrend, pausing in Asia · RSI 63 · price 4,183.51
Higher lows from 4142 NY low; tight Asian range capped under 4200.
A late NY surge lifted gold from the 4142 NY low through the 4175 prior high, with the move tied to oil slipping under $90 and Williams' softer tone. Asia is holding a tight 4176.79–4187.59 range just below the 4200 round number, with RSI(14) cooling in the low 60s.
Support: 4,176.79, 4,162.50, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 4187.59 asian high opens the 4200 round number, the breakdown level flagged in the digest
Loss of the 4176.79 asian low breaks the rising trendline and exposes the 4162.5 spike base near the fib 50%
Failure at the 4142.31 ny low would unwind the entire late-NY bounce
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows off the 4142 NY low; Asian range 4176.79–4187.59 developing.
Gold's late-NY leg off the 4142.31 NY low cleared the 4175 NY high as oil eased and Fed hike urgency softened. Early in the Asian session price printed a marginal session high at 4187.59, with higher lows along the 4160.23 swing low and the 4176.79 Asian low; RSI(14) near 59 and ATR around $4.90. The bounce still sits below the 4200 round number, the breakdown level flagged in the macro read.
Support: 4,176.79, 4,160.23, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 4176.79 asian low breaks the Asian range floor and the higher-low trendline
Loss of the 4160.23 swing low turns the intraday HH/HL chain into a lower low
Acceptance above the 4187.59 session high puts the 4200 round number in play, an area to watch for rejection or break
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wednesday could materially shift this read
HH/HL chain from the 4142.31 NY low; fresh session high in early Asia.
Gold carried the late-NY rebound from the 4142.31 NY low through the post-JOLTS 4175 spike high and printed a new session high at 4187.59 in early Asia. The post-reopen dip held at the 4176.79 swing low, and RSI(14) near 66 is not stretched. The 4200 round number overhead matches the breakdown level the macro read flags.
Support: 4,176.79, 4,142.31
Resistance: 4,187.59, 4,200.00
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 4176.79 swing low breaks the higher-low chain and puts the higher-low line in play
Loss of the higher-low line opens the 50% fib of the NY low–session high leg near 4165
An M15 close above the 4200 round number clears the breakdown level and extends the uptrend; rejection there keeps the bounce corrective
Stalling below the 4187.59 session high during the Asia session would turn the breakout into a range
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Core PCE at 12:30 UTC Wed could materially shift this read