Nobody knew the decision. JAFX traders had the plan.
Markets expected New Zealand's central bank to raise rates. At 01:00 UTC on 28 October it held them at 2.75%, and the kiwi dropped in minutes. Here's what JAFX traders had in front of them beforehand.
27 OCT · 22:30 UTC · MARKET PULSE
What JAFX AI said, 2½ hours before
“If Surprise hold at 2.75% … Sharp NZD selloff as the hike premium unwinds; 0.5600 key support comes into focus quickly.”
28 OCT · 01:00 UTC · THE DECISION
What happened
- The RBNZ held at 2.75%. A hike had been almost fully priced in.
- NZD/USD fell 1.38% in 15 minutes, 56 times its usual 15-minute move.
- It broke 0.5600 within five minutes and reached a low of 0.5583.
2h 30m
from the first heads-up to the decision
3
outcomes mapped, including the surprise hold
0.5600
the support level named in advance, broken at 01:00
30 min
event warning in the terminal before the release
NZD/USD 5 MIN 27 OCT · 22:20 UTC
NZD/USD, 5-minute bars, 27 Oct 22:20 to 28 Oct 05:05 UTC. A pin marks each heads-up; the levels they named draw in.
5 HEADS-UPS · 4 FROM JAFX AI
- 22:30 Market Pulse AI scenario “If Surprise hold at 2.75% … Sharp NZD selloff as the hike premium unwinds; 0.5600 key support comes into focus quickly.” 2H 30M BEFORE
- 23:30 Asia open briefing AI flagged “Look for the vote split and any sign of a pause, which the desk sees as having more room to move NZD than a plain hike.” 1H 30M BEFORE
- 00:03 AI Live Scan · H1 AI level “Failure to hold the 0.5668 range floor confirms a range break, with the digest's 0.5600 support next” 57 MIN BEFORE
- 00:30 Event warning event “High-impact event soon: NZ RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement in ~30m — consider reducing size or widening stops.” 30 MIN BEFORE
- 00:47 AI Live Scan · M15 AI level “Failure to hold the 0.56767 swing low extends the lower-low chain from the 0.5700 pivot rejection” 13 MIN BEFORE
- 01:00 The move RBNZ decision The RBNZ holds at 2.75% when a hike was priced. NZD/USD falls 1.38% in 15 minutes, through 0.5668 and 0.5600.
JAFX AI mapped every outcome, including the surprise.
Two and a half hours before the decision, Market Pulse laid out three plans for NZD/USD, each with its levels. The real bars then followed the one the market thought least likely.
NZD/USD M5 · 28 OCT 2026 · UTC MARKET PULSE'S PLANSREAL PRICE
The levels and directions are Market Pulse's (27 Oct, 22:30 UTC); the dashed routes between them are drawn to show each plan. The bars are the real NZD/USD 5-minute prices.
HIKE, HAWKISH TONE
IF
Rates go up to 3.00%, and the bank signals more hikes to come.
↑ NZD
NZD/USD climbs back above 0.5700/0.5710 and tests the resistance zone.
0.5700/0.5710 0.5748–0.5769
MARKET PULSE'S WORDS
“If 25bp hike to 3.00% (f/c 3.00%, prev 2.75%) with hawkish guidance or a higher OCR track signalling a December move toward ~3.50%: NZD bid; NZD/USD reclaims 0.5700/0.5710 and probes the 0.5748–0.5769 resistance zone, though follow-through likely stalls into the Fed decision.”
HIKE, CAUTIOUS TONE
IF
Rates go up to 3.00%, but the bank sounds cautious or hints at a pause.
↓ NZD
'Sell the fact': NZD/USD stays under 0.5700, slips back through 0.5680 and drifts toward 0.5600.
< 0.5700 0.5680 0.5600
MARKET PULSE'S WORDS
“If 25bp hike to 3.00% but cautious or data-dependent tone that leans on the softer 3.7% CPI (vs 3.9% RBNZ projection) or hints at a pause: 'Sell-the-fact' NZD weakness; NZD/USD stays capped below 0.5700 and slips back through 0.5680, opening a drift toward 0.5600 support.”
SURPRISE HOLD WHAT HAPPENED
IF
No hike: rates stay at 2.75%.
Market Pulse called it low probability. The market had a hike almost fully priced in.
↓ NZD
A sharp NZD selloff, with 0.5600 key support in focus quickly.
0.5600
- “Surprise hold at 2.75%” The RBNZ held at 2.75%. The forecast was 3.00%.
- “Sharp NZD selloff” −1.38% in 15 minutes, 56× the usual 15-minute move.
- “0.5600 key support comes into focus quickly” Broken in the first 5 minutes; low 0.5583.
- And it held: −1.30% an hour later, −1.28% four hours later.
MARKET PULSE'S WORDS
“If Surprise hold at 2.75% (low probability; market ~100% priced for a hike): Sharp NZD selloff as the hike premium unwinds; 0.5600 key support comes into focus quickly.”
WHY IT MOVED
“The RBNZ held at 2.75% when a hike to 3% was close to fully priced, forcing a crowded long-NZD unwind that took the pair to a 0.55817 low.”
LONDON OPEN BRIEFING · 28 OCT, 07:00 UTC
JAFX AI gives general market information, not financial advice. Its examples, levels and confidence scores are illustrations, not recommendations, and don't take your circumstances into account. JAFX holds no advice licence: every trading decision is yours. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Before, during and after the move.
The tools behind those heads-ups, and the rest of the terminal. AI and non-AI, every JAFX account.
Before the move
SEE IT FORMING
- 01 Market Pulse
- 02 Session briefings
- 03 Economic calendar
- 04 AI Live Scan
- 05 AI Scan
- 06 Event warnings
As it moves
KNOW WHY, FAST
Your trade
ACT WITH A PLAN
After
LEARN FROM IT
Build your own
BRING YOUR BOTS
BEFORE THE MOVE · See it forming
EXAMPLE
01 / MARKET PULSE AI
The market, explained.
AI Market Pulse is JAFX AI's read of each market: which way it leans, how strongly, and the news and calendar behind it.
GAVE A HEADS-UP ON NZD/USD
BIAS AND CONVICTION
Its lean on each major currency, gold, silver, oil and bitcoin, and how strongly it holds it.
SCENARIOS
What's priced in, the scenarios it sets out and what to watch.
RISK AHEAD
The next high-impact event on the calendar, with a countdown.
FOLLOW UP WITH AI
Take the read into the chat to go deeper.
Past Market Pulse reads
EXAMPLE
02 / SESSION BRIEFINGS AI
A briefing at every open.
JAFX AI writes a briefing for the Asia, London and New York opens every weekday: what moved since the last one, what's coming up and the levels to watch.
GAVE A HEADS-UP ON NZD/USD
ON THE CLOCK
08:30 Tokyo, 07:00 London and 08:00 New York, Monday to Friday.
WHAT'S INSIDE
The mood, what moved and why, data released, themes and levels to watch.
CHECKED NUMBERS
Its figures come from market data and are checked against the text before it is published.
ASK AI ABOUT IT
Any briefing is one tap from a question.
Every briefing, kept
EXAMPLE
03 / ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Every release, on the clock.
The calendar on the News page lists coming events by day, in your own time zone, with a countdown to each one.
FILTER BY IMPACT
High impact only, medium and high, or every event.
THE NUMBERS
Forecast and previous, then the actual, marked better or worse than expected.
PAST EVENTS
Switch them on to see what's already out today.
ASK AI
What a release measures, why it matters and which markets it could move.
EXAMPLE
04 / AI LIVE SCAN AI
The chart, read live.
Open AI Live Scan on the chart and JAFX AI tells you what it sees: the trend, the levels that matter, the patterns and what would change the read. It updates as each candle closes.
GAVE A HEADS-UP ON NZD/USD
THE MARKETS TRADERS WATCH MOST
The seven major FX pairs, gold, silver and bitcoin.
EVERY TIMEFRAME THAT MATTERS
15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, daily and weekly.
ON YOUR CHART
One tap draws the read's levels, fib and trend lines on your chart.
THEN ASK
Ask AI about this takes the read into the chat for your follow-up questions.
Past chart reads
EXAMPLE
05 / AI SCAN
Where it's stretched.
AI Scan sits at the top of the markets list and flags the markets whose RSI is at an extreme right now: the seven major FX pairs, gold, silver and bitcoin.
RSI EXTREMES
RSI(14) at 70 or above, or 30 or below, on the 1-hour, 4-hour or daily chart.
WORKED OUT, NOT JUDGED
The flag is calculated from the candles. No AI decides it.
WHERE THE AI COMES IN
Any chart patterns on a row come from JAFX AI's latest read of that chart.
ONE TAP
Opens that market's chart on the timeframe it was flagged on.
EXAMPLE
06 / EVENT WARNINGS
A warning before the news.
When a high-impact release for the market you're on is 30 minutes away, a red warning appears at the top of the order ticket, on phones too, and stays until the release.
GAVE A HEADS-UP ON NZD/USD
YOUR MARKET
High-impact events for the market on your chart.
WHAT IT SAYS
The event, its currency and the time left.
UNTIL THE RELEASE
It stays on the ticket until the release and sounds once.
ALWAYS IN VIEW
The market bar counts down to the next high-impact event.
AS IT MOVES · Know why, fast
EXAMPLE
07 / MARKET ALERTS
Sharp moves, flagged fast.
The terminal flags moves that are unusual for that market within minutes. The detection is maths on the price; JAFX AI comes in when you press Ask AI why.
SIZED AGAINST NORMAL
Each alert shows how big the move is against the market's typical day.
ONE DRIVER, ONE CARD
Moves with a shared driver arrive together, like "USD weakening · 4 markets".
FOLLOWED UP
For 4 hours after, it tracks whether the move kept going, held, faded or reversed.
ASK AI WHY
JAFX AI explains what drove the move and how the chart looks now.
Past alerts, and what price did after
EXAMPLE
08 / NEWS
The headlines, with context.
The News page lists the latest headlines, newest first, for all markets or the one you're trading.
ALL OR ONE
Every market, or just one.
KEPT FRESH
The page reloads every 2 minutes.
AT THE SOURCE
A headline opens the full story where it was published.
ASK AI
What a story means and its likely impact on the markets.
EXAMPLE
09 / JAFX AI CHAT AI
Talk to JAFX AI.
Ask about any market or your account. Get a read, a setup and a plan in plain English.
PAIR-AWARE
Knows the current price, the chart, the news and the calendar for every market on JAFX.
ACCOUNT-AWARE
Reads your balance, open positions and orders.
SHOWS ITS SOURCES
Under every answer: the live quote, chart, calendar or news it read.
NOT ADVICE
It explains the market and does the maths. Every decision is yours.
YOUR TRADE · Act with a plan
EXAMPLE
10 / ANALYSE ORDER AI
A second opinion before you place it.
The terminal has an Analyse button wherever you trade. Set up an order, press Analyse Order, and JAFX AI gets the whole ticket before you press Buy.
THE WHOLE TICKET
Size, entry, stop loss, take profit and the margin it uses.
BEFORE YOU PRESS BUY
What the risk looks like, and what it would change.
ANALYSE CHART
What the AI sees on the chart you're looking at.
ONE CLICK
Each button sends JAFX AI the question with what you're looking at, and the answer arrives in the chat.
EXAMPLE
11 / TRADES YOU CONFIRM AI
You review, then confirm.
Say "short EUR/USD at the nearest resistance, 2R target, risk 1%". JAFX AI drafts the trade with entry, stop, target and a size worked out from your balance and the risk you choose.
YOUR RISK
Tell JAFX AI how much to risk: a % of your balance, or an amount.
MONEY AT RISK, BEFORE YOU CONFIRM
What the trade loses if its stop loss is hit, in your account's currency and as a % of your balance.
NEW TRADES AND OPEN ONES
It can also propose a new stop or target, or closing all or part of a position.
CONFIRM OR DISMISS
Nothing is placed until you press Confirm. The card expires after 10 minutes.
EXAMPLE
12 / ANALYSE POSITION AI
Your open trades, reviewed.
Press Analyse Trade on an open position, or Analyse All Positions, and JAFX AI reviews them with fresh figures from your account.
ANALYSE TRADE
One open position, from its row in your positions.
ANALYSE ALL POSITIONS
Concentration, exposure, risk to reward, and what, if anything, it would change.
TRADE AND PORTFOLIO
The same buttons on the Trade page's positions and on Portfolio.
ONE CLICK
Each button sends JAFX AI the question with what you're looking at, and the answer arrives in the chat.
AFTER · Learn from it
EXAMPLE
13 / DAILY WRAP BRIEFING AI
The day, in one read.
After the New York close, JAFX AI wraps up the day: what moved and why, how the data came in against forecasts, and what carries into tomorrow.
WHEN
17:15 New York, Monday to Thursday. Friday brings the Week in Review, Sunday the Week Ahead.
WHAT MOVED
The day's biggest moves, each with a line on why.
THE NEXT SESSION
The events coming up that matter most, and the levels to watch.
KEPT
Every wrap stays in the briefings archive, exactly as it was published.
Past daily wraps
BUILD YOUR OWN · Bring your bots
EXAMPLE
14 / API + MCP
Bring your own bots.
The JAFX Trading API and MCP server let your own programs and AI agents use your account, through the same routing as the web terminal.
SCOPED KEYS
Read-only, trading or proposals, made on the Developers page in the terminal.
PROPOSALS
An agent's orders wait until you confirm them in the terminal.
LIMITS ON THE SERVER
Volume per order, open positions, orders per minute and a daily loss stop, whatever the code sends.
DEMO AND LIVE
Keys for demo and live accounts. Live keys start as proposals, with small orders and a 2% daily loss stop.
Developer docs
MCP for AI agents
JAFX AI gives general market information, not financial advice. Its examples, levels and confidence scores are illustrations, not recommendations, and don't take your circumstances into account. JAFX holds no advice licence: every trading decision is yours. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.