Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD daily chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, coiling near lows · RSI 42 · price 0.69011
Lower highs since mid-May, consolidating above 3-month low.
AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the mid-May peak near 0.7277, shedding roughly 4% to settle onto its 200-EMA near 0.6900. The last two weeks have coiled in a tight 0.6865–0.6930 band, with the trade-deficit miss and firm-USD backdrop keeping the tape heavy and price pinned below both EMA20 and EMA50. Demand has held twice around the 0.6865 3-month low, but rebounds have been capped short of 0.6930.
Support: 0.6865, 0.6835, 0.6707
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6980
What it said to watch
- US NFP this week is the decisive catalyst for breaking the 0.6865–0.6930 range
- Decisive daily close below 0.6865 shifts focus to 0.6835 then 0.6707
- Daily close above 0.6930 would relieve the downside pressure and open 0.6980
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, momentum slowing · RSI 42 · price 0.69011
Lower highs / lower lows, coiling on 200-ema.
AUDUSD topped near 0.7277 in mid-May and has bled roughly 4% over the following weeks, settling onto its 200-day EMA near 0.6900 as a proxy for a firm USD and soft China/local data. Price is below EMA20 and EMA50 with both sloping lower, but the last eight sessions have flattened into a tight 0.6865–0.6930 range as the slide loses pace. The trade-balance miss is digested; the market is coiled ahead of the next US jobs read.
Support: 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6930, 0.6980
What it said to watch
- Daily close below 0.6865 confirms a fresh lower-low and opens 0.6835, then 0.6707
- Close above 0.6930 breaks the range and shifts focus to the 0.6980 band top
- US ISM Services / FOMC minutes this week are the catalysts that could break the 0.6865–0.6930 range