AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Monday, 5 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:07 UTC
Downtrend, first signs of basing · RSI 54 · price 0.69708
Lower highs/lower lows since 0.7140; higher low at 0.6932 after 0.6903 low.
A lower-high, lower-low sequence from the 0.7140 high carried AUDUSD to a 0.6903 swing low, despite the RBA hike, as rising US yields and safe-haven USD demand dominated. Since the soft NFP, price has printed a higher low at 0.6932 and closed above the lower-highs trendline. It now sits at the 50% retrace of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg, just under the 0.6975 swing high. EMA20 (0.6958) is still below EMA50 (0.6988), which lines up with the 61.8% fib, and ATR(14) near 23 pips shows a moderate, contained range.
Support: 0.6958, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6988, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6975 swing high and the ema50 near 0.6988 would mark the first higher high and challenge the downtrend read
Rejection below the 0.7000 psych level would keep the broader lower-high sequence intact
Loss of ema20 at 0.6958 and then the 0.6932 higher low reopens the 0.6903 swing low; a break there resumes the downtrend
Fed's Williams/Bowman (Tue) and FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) could reprice US yields, the main driver of this leg
Lower highs from 0.7237 to a 0.6903 low; first higher low at 0.6932.
Three weeks of lower highs and lower lows took AUDUSD about 330 pips off 0.7237 to the 0.6903 swing low. The soft US NFP sparked a rebound, and price has since put in a higher low at 0.6932 and lifted above the lower-high trendline. It is now pressing the 0.6975 bounce high, near the 50% retracement of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg. Price holds above EMA20, but EMA50 sits just under the 0.7000 round number, and firm US yields keep that area capping. ATR(14) near 24 pips points to a contained, compressing regime rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6975 bounce high opens the 0.7000 round number and EMA50 overhead
A close above the 0.7039 prior high would break the lower-high sequence
Loss of the 0.6932 higher low and the higher-low line puts the 0.6903 swing low back in focus
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Fed speakers Tue could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; short-term higher lows off 0.6903.
AUDUSD has printed a three-week sequence of lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237 down to the 0.6903 window low. Rising US yields and haven USD demand drove the slide, and the soft NFP print sparked the bounce off that low. Price is now holding a 0.6932 higher low and sits above EMA20, but the spike high at 0.6975 lines up with EMA50 (~0.6980) and the 50% retracement of the 0.7039-0.6903 leg, capping the rebound. ATR(14) near 23 pips is compressed relative to the selling legs, consistent with a basing consolidation inside the broader downtrend.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7005
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6975 spike high and EMA50 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7005 prior floor
Failure to hold the 0.6932 higher low exposes the 0.6903 window low and resumes the lower-low sequence
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today (f/c 55) could materially shift this read
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next scheduled USD risk inside the swing horizon
Lower highs since 0.7237; rebound off 0.6903 capped at 0.6975.
AUDUSD has held a lower-high sequence for three weeks, sliding from the 0.7039 swing high to a 0.6903 swing low as US yields and haven USD demand pushed the pair down. Friday's NFP miss stalled the dollar and drove a bounce that stopped at the 0.6975 bounce high, about 53% of the fib retrace. Price is now sitting near the 38.2% level around 0.6955, just above EMA20 but below EMA50, with a 0.6932 pullback low underneath. ATR(14) near 24 pips is compressing versus the late-September expansion, and price is coiling under the lower-highs trendline.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6975 bounce high breaks the lower-highs trendline and opens the 0.7000 round number, then the 0.7039 swing high
Failure to hold the 0.6932 pullback low re-exposes the 0.6903 swing low
US ISM Services PMI at 14:00 UTC today could materially shift this read; a soft print risks AUD short-covering, a hot prices component revives the USD bid
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; bounce capped below the descending line.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows for three weeks, sliding from 0.7237 to a 0.6903 swing low as US yields climbed. Friday's NFP miss lifted the pair to a 0.6975 bounce high near the 50% retracement of the 0.7042-0.6903 leg, just under the lower-highs trendline. Price has since slipped back toward the 0.6931 bounce base and sits below both EMAs, with ATR(14) near 23 pips showing no compression.
Support: 0.6931, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6975 bounce high and the lower-highs trendline would break the sequence of lower highs and bring the 0.7000 round number into play
Failure to hold the 0.6931 bounce base exposes the 0.6903 swing low; a break there extends the downtrend
Prior highs cluster at 0.7040 marks the last swing that would need to clear to invalidate the downtrend read
US ISM Services PMI today at 14:00 UTC (f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed-hike pricing
Lower highs and lower lows since 0.7237; bounce testing falling trendline.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows for three weeks, from 0.7237 through 0.7140 and 0.7042 down to the 0.6903 swing low. The soft US NFP drove a bounce to a 0.6975 bounce high, near the 50% fib of the 0.7042-0.6903 leg. That high stalled just under the falling lower-high trendline, and price is now hovering below EMA20 with EMA50 still well overhead. ATR(14) near 22 pips is moderate: the drop legs expanded it, and the bounce has not.
Support: 0.6940, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6975 bounce high and the lower-high trendline breaks the lower-high sequence and puts the 0.7000 round number in play
A move through 0.7000 exposes the 0.7042 swing high, the origin of the latest fib leg
Loss of the 0.6940 minor lows shifts focus back to the 0.6903 swing low; a break there extends the downtrend
US ISM Services PMI (Mon 14:00 UTC, f/c 55.7) could materially shift this read via Fed hike pricing