Higher low at 0.6932 inside broader lower-high sequence.
Three weeks of lower highs from 0.7237 ended at the 0.6903 swing low. Since then a higher low at 0.6932 and a push to 0.6990 have formed a corrective leg, helped by the soft US NFP and easing yields. Price is now pressing the fib 61.8% of the 0.7039 swing high to 0.6903 leg at 0.6987, which sits with EMA50 just below the 0.70 round number; EMA20 has turned up but has not crossed EMA50, and ATR(14) has compressed to roughly half its late-September readings.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.70 round number and EMA50 would shift the read from correction to base, with the 0.7039 swing high the next reference
Loss of the fib 50% at 0.6971 and the rising support line from 0.6903 would return focus to the 0.6932 higher low
Break below the 0.6932 higher low would resume the downtrend toward the 0.6903 swing low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and RBA Minutes Oct 13 could materially shift this read
Higher lows since 0.6903 cycle low, pressing swing high and EMA50.
Lower highs ran from 0.7237 into last Thursday's 0.6903 cycle low. Since then H4 has printed higher lows at 0.6913 and 0.6932 and cleared the 0.6975 breakout lvl, as the soft US NFP pulled USD back. Price is now testing the 0.6994 swing high and EMA50 near 0.6988, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the 0.7039 prior high to 0.6903 drop, with 0.70 psych just above. ATR(14) has compressed to about 20 pips from 30+ during the late-September slide, and EMA20 is still below EMA50, so no ema cross yet.
Support: 0.6975, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6994, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6994 swing high and 0.70 psych clears EMA50 and opens the path to the 0.7039 prior high
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would confirm the higher lows as a swing reversal rather than a retracement
Close back below the 0.6975 breakout lvl marks a false break; loss of the 0.6932 swing low breaks the higher lows and puts the 0.6903 cycle low back in focus
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y around 5.25-5.29% could materially shift this read
Lower highs from 0.7237 to a 0.6903 swing low; higher lows since.
The three-week sequence of lower highs bottomed at the 0.6903 swing low after the soft trimmed-mean CPI m/m print cut RBA hike pricing. The 29K NFP miss then triggered a rebound with a higher low at 0.6932, a clear of the lower-highs line and a break above the 0.6975 prior high. Price is now pressing the 0.6985–0.6987 zone, where the 61.8% fib of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg meets EMA50, with the 0.7000 round number just above and ATR(14) settling near 20 pips after last week's expansion.
Support: 0.6975, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.7000, 0.7044
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.7000 round number opens the 0.7039–0.7044 swing highs
Rejection at the 61.8% fib/EMA50 zone and a slip back under the 0.6975 prior high keeps the move corrective
Failure to hold the 0.6932 higher low exposes the 0.6903 swing low
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would mark the first swing-level shift in the window
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower highs since mid-Sept; first higher low at 0.6932 after the 0.6903 swing low.
AUDUSD has printed a three-week run of lower highs from 0.7237 down to the 0.6903 swing low, before soft US payrolls sparked a rebound that has carved a first higher low at 0.6932. Price is now pressing the 0.6977 bounce high, between the 50% and 61.8% retracement of the 0.7039 swing high to 0.6903 swing low drop. It holds above the ema20 (~0.6960) but sits just under the EMA50 (~0.6987), with the EMAs still bearishly stacked though converging. ATR(14) near 20 pips is contained versus the late-September selloff legs.
Support: 0.6960, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6977, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6977 bounce high and the 0.7000 round number would mark the first higher high of the window and challenge the lower-high sequence
An EMA20/EMA50 cross higher would confirm the rebound is shifting swing structure; rejection at the EMA50 keeps the downtrend read intact
Failure to hold the 0.6932 higher low reopens the 0.6903 swing low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and Fed speakers today could materially shift USD and this read
Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC is the next domestic catalyst for RBA pricing
Lower highs from 0.7237 to 0.6903, now a higher-low bounce testing the range top.
Three weeks of lower highs took AUDUSD from 0.7237 to last week's 0.6903 swing low. The soft US NFP print then sparked a rebound, and price has since pushed through the descending lower-highs trendline. Higher lows at 0.6913 and 0.6932 now have price retesting the 0.6976 range top, which sits at the 50% fib of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg. Price holds above EMA20 (~0.6955) but sits below EMA50 (~0.6984) with no EMA cross yet, and ATR(14) near 20 pips is well off the selloff expansion, a compression that often precedes a range break.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.7000, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6976 range top and EMA50 opens the 0.7000 round number, then the 0.7039 prior high (61.8% fib zone en route)
Rejection at the range top followed by a break of the 0.6932 higher low exposes the 0.6903 swing low and resumes the lower-low sequence
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) and AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would confirm the shift out of the downtrend structure