Lower highs from 0.7222; higher lows since the 0.6903 low.
The three-week slide from 0.7222 bottomed at the 0.6903 3-month low on Oct 1. The rebound since has printed higher lows (0.6932, then 0.6942) but stalled at the 0.6990 swing high, a retest of the broken 0.6980-0.70 zone at the 61.8% of the 0.7039 prior high to 0.6903 leg, with EMA50 near 0.6982 capping. Price now sits between the 38.2% fib at 0.6955 and the 50% fib at 0.6971, flat at EMA20, and ATR(14) has compressed into converging higher-low and lower-high lines; hawkish FOMC Minutes drew only a muted reaction in the final bar, in line with a largely priced USD.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6942, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6971, 0.6990, 0.7039
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 swing high and EMA50 breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7039 prior high
Loss of the 0.6942 higher low, then the 38.2% fib at 0.6955 giving way, reopens the 0.6903 3-month low
US Initial Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) plus Waller and Musalem could break the ATR compression either way
RBA Meeting Minutes Oct 13 00:30 UTC are a high-impact risk for the AUD side of the read
Lower highs from 0.7224, higher-low rebound off 0.6903.
The three-week slide from 0.7224 to the 0.6903 window low built a clean lower-high sequence, with the 0.7045 lower high marking the last breakdown pivot. Since then price has rebounded in a flag of higher lows (0.6903, 0.6932, 0.6942). The 0.6990 swing high met rejection at the 61.8% retrace, just under the 0.7000 round number, as a USD bid on 5.3%+ US yields and $100 Brent offset softer post-hike Australian data. Price sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with no bullish cross. ATR(14) near 16 pips is compressed versus the breakdown legs.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7045
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC today could materially shift this read via US yields
H4 close below the 0.6942 swing low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6932 higher low and the 0.6903 window low
H4 close above the 0.6990 swing high and the 0.7000 round number would clear the 61.8% retrace and open the 0.7045 lower high
Break of the higher-lows trendline would confirm the flag resolving lower
RBA Meeting Minutes Oct 13 00:30 UTC are the next AUD-specific risk
Lower highs from 0.7233; bounce off 0.6903 capped near 61.8% fib.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs from 0.7233 down to the 0.6903 3m low. The rebound off that low, helped by Friday's soft US wage data, stalled at the 0.6990 swing high near the 61.8% fib retracement of the 0.7039–0.6903 leg, and price has slipped back to the 38.2% level near 0.6955, below the ema20 and ema50 and under the bounce trendline, with the 0.6932 higher low still intact. ATR(14) near 17 pips is compressed versus the late-September impulse, and FOMC Minutes today are the next catalyst.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6981, 0.6990, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 swing high would clear the 61.8% fib and the ema50, breaking the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold the 0.6932 higher low exposes the 0.6903 3m low and resumes the downtrend
0.7040 range cap, which held three times in late September, is the multi-day ceiling above the 0.70 handle
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today and the US 10y yield near 5.30% could materially shift this read
EMA20 remains below EMA50; a bullish ema cross would require a sustained hold above 0.6981
Lower highs/lows from 0.7233; higher-low rebound off 0.6903 capped near 0.6990.
AUDUSD has printed lower highs and lower lows for three weeks from 0.7233. The slide into the 0.6903 swing low was followed by a higher-low rebound that stalled at the 0.6990 rebound high, around the 61.8% fib of the 0.7039-0.6903 leg. Price is now back at EMA20 and holding above the 38.2% fib at 0.6955, with EMA20 still below EMA50. ATR(14) near 16 pips is compressed versus the 40-50 pip bars earlier in the window. Fading RBA November hike bets and yield-driven USD firmness frame the bounce as corrective, with supply capping just under the 0.7000 psych level.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 rebound high and 0.7000 psych invalidates the corrective read and puts the 0.7040 prior range floor back in view
Failure to hold the 0.6932 higher low breaks the rebound line and re-exposes the 0.6903 swing low
Hold of the 38.2% fib at 0.6955 keeps the higher-low rebound structure intact
FOMC Minutes today at 18:00 GMT could materially shift this read via US yields
Lower highs from 0.7237 to a 0.6903 low; rebound made a higher low at 0.6932, now capped near 0.6990.
Three weeks of lower highs took AUDUSD from 0.7237 to a 0.6903 swing low. The rebound since, helped by the soft US NFP, has printed a higher low at 0.6932 and a rebound high at 0.6990, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the 0.7042 swing high to 0.6903 leg. Price is holding above the ema20 but sits just under EMA50, with the 0.7000 psych level overhead. Fading RBA hike bets and US 10y yields near 2002 highs are capping gains, and ATR(14) has compressed to about 16 pips as bars tighten below the rebound high.
Support: 0.6965, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 rebound high and the 0.7000 psych level would end the lower-high sequence and expose the 0.7042 swing high
Loss of the ema20 at 0.6965 and then the 0.6932 higher low would break the higher-lows trendline and reopen the 0.6903 swing low
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would confirm the rebound on this timeframe; until then the downtrend frame holds
01:05 UTC
Downtrend losing momentum, rebound under way · RSI 57 · price 0.69803
First higher high and higher low after three weeks of lower highs.
The three-week sequence of lower highs from 0.7140 broke this week. Price cleared the falling trendline from 0.7039 and the 0.6975 prior high, printing a higher low at 0.6932 after the soft US payrolls knocked the USD off its highs. The bounce has stalled at the 0.6990 week high, which sits on the 61.8% fib of the 0.7039-0.6903 leg, just below the 0.7000 round number. ATR(14) has compressed to about 17 pips from the low-20s, and EMA20 is converging on EMA50 from below, so the H4 EMA cross is still pending.
Support: 0.6975, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7040
What it said to watch
Fed September minutes (Wed, US session) could materially shift this read via yields and the USD
An H4 close above the 0.7000 round number extends the higher-high sequence toward the 0.7040 swing highs
A rejection at the 0.6990 week high / 61.8% fib that loses the 0.6975 prior high returns price to the 0.6932 higher low
A break below 0.6932 undoes the reversal structure and re-exposes the 0.6903 swing low
An EMA20 cross above EMA50 would confirm the shift in swing structure
AU consumer inflation expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) are a secondary risk