21:06 UTC
Downtrend since early-Sep peak, corrective bounce underway · RSI 36 · price 0.69806
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7237; bounce testing 0.70 from below.
AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the Sep 9 peak at 0.7237. A lower high formed at 0.7140 on Sep 21, and the Sep 23 break through the 0.7075 shelf extended the slide to a 0.6903 swing low on Oct 1, as soft Australian data faded RBA hike bets and US yields near 2002 highs kept the USD bid. This week's bounce has stalled just under the 0.7000 round number, where the descending trendline from the September high and the 23.6% fib converge. Price remains below a falling ema20 near 0.7032 and below the EMA(50), which has rolled over.
Support: 0.6903, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.7000, 0.7032, 0.7140
What it said to watch
- Daily close above the 0.7000 round number and the descending trendline would break the lower-high sequence from Sep 9
- A close back above the 0.7032 ema20 opens the 0.7070 fib 50% and the 0.7140 lower high
- Failure below the 0.6903 swing low confirms a lower-low and exposes the june low at 0.6865
- Follow-through from the FOMC Minutes, Thursday's US jobless claims and Waller/Musalem remarks could materially shift this read; RBA Minutes due Oct 13