Higher low at weekly open, lower highs since Tuesday peak.
Monday's Asia dip to the 0.6932 monday low was bought through London and NY, and the rally ran to a 0.6990 week high in Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's yield-driven USD bid erased most of it from London into NY, with the drop retesting the 0.6942 weekly open near the 78.6% fib of the Mon-Tue rally before hawkish-but-absorbed FOMC Minutes allowed a bounce. Price now sits under EMA20 (0.6964) and EMA50, below the lower-highs trendline, with RSI(14) near 44 in the middle of a 0.6932–0.6990 range.
Support: 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.69639, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6964 ema20 and the lower-highs trendline reopens the 0.6990 week high, with the 0.7000 round number above
Failure to hold the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6932 monday low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC, then Thursday's Waller and US jobless claims, could materially shift this read
22:04 UTC
Sideways, pullback from week high · RSI 40 · price 0.6961
Lower highs off 0.6990, weekly open holding as floor.
Monday's Asia-session weekly low at 0.6932 gave way to a London-NY advance into Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, but Wednesday's London session unwound most of it as US 10y yields near 5.35% and a firm USD pressed the pair back to the 0.6942 weekly open, about a 78.6% retracement of the rally. Demand stepped in at the weekly open and the NY session rebounded to a 0.6969 session high. Price now sits near the 50% retrace at 0.6961, just under a flat EMA20/EMA50 cluster around 0.6964, with RSI(14) near 40 and the lower-highs line from the week high capping rebounds.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6964, 0.6969, 0.6990
What it said to watch
Hourly close back above the 0.6969 session high and the lower-highs line reopens the 0.6990 week high
Failure to hold the 0.6942 weekly open confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.6932 weekly low
Repeated hourly closes below the ema20 near 0.6964 keep the pullback read intact
Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations in ~2h (no forecast) could materially shift this read
US Initial Jobless Claims Thu 12:30 UTC and Fed speakers are the next USD risk
Lower highs since Tuesday peak; higher low held at weekly open.
The Monday–Tuesday leg stair-stepped from the 0.6932 week low to a 0.6990 week high in NY hours Tuesday. Firm US yields then drove a rejection from there, and Wednesday's London-into-NY slide retraced roughly 80% of the leg to 0.6942, a retest of the weekly open where buyers stepped in. The bounce stalled at 0.6969 on the lower-highs line from the 0.6984 Wednesday high, and the FOMC Minutes bar added little range. Price now sits below the ema20 near 0.6965 and just above the prior close at 0.6955, with RSI(14) near 43.
Support: 0.6955, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.6984, 0.6990
What it said to watch
H1 close above the lower-highs line and ema20 (~0.6965–0.6969) neutralises the Wednesday pullback; a reclaim of the 0.6984 wed high puts the 0.6990 week high back in focus
Failure to hold the 0.6955 prior close and the 0.6942 weekly open (78.6% of the Monday–Tuesday leg) exposes the 0.6932 week low and breaks the higher-low sequence
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC, Fed's Waller 08:30 UTC and US Initial Jobless Claims 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
20:04 UTC
Range after Mon-Tue rally, momentum neutral · RSI 45 · price 0.69625
Higher low at weekly open, lower high under week high.
The week opened with a small gap lower. From Monday's Asia week low at 0.6932, price rallied through Monday's London and NY sessions into a week high at 0.6990 near Tuesday's NY open. Wednesday's sell-off across the London-NY transition retraced about 80% of that move as USD firmed on 24-year-high yields, but demand stepped in exactly at the 0.6942 weekly open, leaving a higher low. A bounce into the FOMC Minutes, as yields reversed, has stalled at 0.6969, the Wednesday NY high. Price now sits just under ema20 near 0.6965 and above the 50% fib at 0.6961, with RSI(14) back to the mid-40s.
Support: 0.69607, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.69649, 0.69691, 0.69895
What it said to watch
An H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher-lows line and exposes the 0.6932 week low
An H1 close above the 0.6969 ny high clears the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.6990 week high
Loss of the 50% fib at 0.6961 shifts focus back to the weekly open
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations (Thu 00:00 UTC) could materially shift this read
Fed's Waller (Thu 08:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
US Jobless Claims (Thu 12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read
19:04 UTC
Range after Tuesday high, momentum neutral · RSI 48 · price 0.69661
Higher low at weekly open, lower highs from Tuesday's peak.
Monday's Asia session dip to the 0.6932 week low reversed into a two-day rally that topped at the 0.69895 week high early in Tuesday's NY session, just shy of the 0.6985 and 0.70 round number area. Wednesday gave back nearly 80% of the Mon-Tue rally from late London into the NY open as US 10y yields hit 24-year highs, and the low printed exactly at the 0.6942 weekly open. Demand stepped in there and NY hours lifted price back onto the EMA(20) near 0.6965. RSI(14) is near 48 and the lower highs line from Tuesday is capping at 0.6969 as the FOMC Minutes reaction plays out.
Support: 0.6965, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.6969, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher lows sequence and exposes the 0.6932 week low
H1 close above the 0.6969 lower highs line reopens the 0.69895 week high and the 0.70 round number
Sustained trade below the ema20 near 0.6965 keeps price inside the lower half of the Mon-Tue rally
FOMC Minutes reaction (released 18:00 UTC) and Fed's Waller Thu 08:30 UTC could materially shift this read
AU consumer inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC and US jobless claims Thu 12:30 UTC are the next event risks
Monday's Asia-session dip to the 0.6932 monday low gave way to a London-led push to the 0.6990 week high on Tuesday. Wednesday's London selloff, on firmer US yields and fading RBA hike bets, ran back to the 0.6942 weekly open near the 78.6% fib, where demand stepped in and held a higher low on the higher-low trendline. The NY-session rebound has price pinned on EMA(20) and EMA(50) near 0.6965 with RSI(14) at ~49, capped so far below the 0.6974 lower high.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, with US 10y yields near 5.3%, could materially shift this read
H1 close above the 0.6974 lower high reopens the 0.6990 week high and the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher-low trendline and exposes the 0.6932 monday low
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at 00:00 UTC during the Asia session could extend the range
Lower highs from 0.6990 week high; weekly open retested, bounce stalling at 50% fib below ema20.
The week's advance ran from Monday's Asia-session low at 0.6932 to a 0.6990 week high around the London-NY transition on Tuesday, where it met rejection just shy of 0.70. Wednesday's London session reversed it on firmer US yields and a bid USD, taking price back to a retest of the 0.6942 weekly open. The NY-hours bounce is stalling near the 50% fib of that move at 0.6961, still capped below ema20 at 0.6965, with RSI(14) holding in the low 40s.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6965, 0.6974, 0.6990
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~1h) could materially shift this read; USD tone and US 10y yields are the main driver
An H1 close above 0.6974 breaks the lower highs line and reclaims ema20, unwinding the pullback read
Failure to hold the 0.6942 weekly open exposes the 0.6932 monday low and negates the week's advance
A return toward the 0.6990 week high would put the 0.70 rejection zone back in play
0.6932–0.6990 weekly range; Wednesday lower highs, bounce off the weekly open.
Monday's rally from the 0.6932 week low stalled at Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, just shy of the 0.7000 cap. Since then Wednesday has printed lower highs as USD demand built on 5.35% US 10y yields ahead of FOMC Minutes. The London session sell-off broke Tuesday's 0.6961 low and Monday's 0.6950 pivot, then tagged the weekly open at 0.6942 with RSI(14) near 33 before buyers stepped in at the NY open. Price now sits at the 50% retracement of the Mon-Tue rally near 0.6961, just under the ema cluster at 0.6966 where EMA(20) has rolled over into EMA(50).
Support: 0.69495, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.69655, 0.69743, 0.69895
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read; the $39B 10y auction adds yield risk
H1 close above the 0.6966 ema cluster and the Wednesday lower highs trendline reopens the 0.6974 lower high and the 0.6990 week high
Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.6942 exposes the 0.6932 week low and the floor of the weekly range
Rejection again at the Monday pivot area near 0.6950 on a retest keeps the lower-high sequence intact
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC during Asia session
15:04 UTC
Pullback inside weekly range, bounce off weekly open · RSI 41 · price 0.69608
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.6990 top; Wednesday low held at the weekly open.
Monday's dip to the 0.6932 week low drew buyers, and the pair printed a week high at 0.6990 in London on Tuesday. Wednesday's slide came on firmer USD and Treasury yields ahead of the FOMC Minutes. It erased most of that Mon–Tue rally and stalled at 0.6942, a retest of the weekly open near the 78.6% fib. The NY-session bounce has lifted price back to the 50% level around 0.6961, still below EMA(20) and the line of lower highs, with RSI(14) recovering to about 41 from the mid-30s.
Support: 0.6954, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.69752, 0.69895
What it said to watch
An H1 close above the ema20 and the lower highs line near 0.6967 eases the pullback read. The fri high at 0.6975 is the next cap.
A break of the 61.8% fib at 0.6954 puts the weekly open at 0.6942 back in focus.
Losing the weekly open exposes the 0.6932 week low. A break there would mark a lower low for the week.
Reclaiming the week high at 0.6990 would test the 0.7000 handle flagged in the macro digest.
The FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC, about 3h out, could materially shift this read via US yields.
Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.6990 peak; higher-low line broken.
AUD/USD built a higher-low line from Monday's 0.6932 Asia low to Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, where the 0.6985–0.7000 cap produced a rejection. During the London session today, price broke the 0.6961–0.6990 range as USD firmed on 10y yields back above 5.30% and Middle East headlines. The drop tagged the week open at 0.6942, near the 78.6% fib of the Monday–Tuesday rally, and price now sits below EMA(20) at 0.6966 with RSI(14) near 33.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6900
Resistance: 0.6966, 0.6990
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC (~4h) could materially shift this read
H1 close below the week open at 0.6942 exposes the monday low at 0.6932 and the 3-month low near 0.6900
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.6966 and the lower-high line puts the week high at 0.6990 back in focus
AU consumer inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could reprice RBA odds
The Mon-Tue rally ran from Monday's Asia-session week low at 0.6932 to a 0.6990 week high in the first hour of NY Tuesday, stalling short of the 0.70 handle where it met rejection. Wednesday's London session reversed it as a firmer USD and 10y yields back above 5.30% weighed. Price broke the rising trendline and slipped below the ema20, retracing past the 61.8% of the Mon-Tue rally into a retest of the weekly open at 0.6942, with RSI(14) near 32 after the slide.
Support: 0.69424, 0.69319, 0.69034
Resistance: 0.69673, 0.69743, 0.69895
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT in the NY session, plus the 10y auction, could materially shift this read
An H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open exposes the 0.6932 week low, then the 0.6903 oct 1 low
Recovery above the ema20 near 0.6967 and the 0.6974 lower high would break the lower highs sequence, with the 0.6990 week high capping beyond
12:04 UTC
Rally from 0.6903 stalling, first lower low printed · RSI 30 · price 0.69547
Lower high at 0.6974 then break of Monday's pullback low.
The rally off Thursday's 0.6903 low got its spark from Friday's soft US payrolls in the NY session and built a run of higher lows into Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, where it met rejection just under 0.70. Wednesday's London session broke the Tuesday range: price set a lower high at 0.6974, then dropped to a day low of 0.6949. That undercut Monday's 0.6950 pullback low and tagged the 50% fib of the rally. Price now sits below EMA20 and EMA50 with RSI(14) near 30, as a firmer USD on 10y yields above 5.30% weighs ahead of the FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.6949, 0.6942, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.6974, 0.6990
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read; hawkish language with US 10y holding above 5.30% keeps the day low exposed
Rising support from Friday's low crosses near 0.6947, alongside the 50% fib and the day low; an H1 close below it and the 0.6942 weekly open exposes the 0.6932 monday low and the 0.6900 area
Recovery above the 0.6968 ema20 and the 0.6974 lower high would neutralise the lower-low read and bring the 0.6990 week high back into focus, with the lower highs line sitting just above
AU consumer inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC could reprice RBA odds during the Asia session
11:04 UTC
Uptrend from Thursday low, pulling back · RSI 31 · price 0.69569
Higher lows since Thursday; Wednesday printing lower highs off 0.6990.
AUD/USD climbed from Thursday's 0.6903 three-month low to a 0.6990 week high in Tuesday's London session, setting higher lows on each pullback, but met rejection short of 0.7000. Wednesday's Asia and London sessions unwound part of that, slipping below the Tuesday low at 0.6961 and the EMA(20) near 0.6972 to test the 38.2% fib retracement around 0.6957, with RSI(14) near 31 as firmer US yields weigh ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Rising support from Thursday's low converges with the Monday NY low near 0.6950.
Support: 0.69495, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.69613, 0.6972, 0.69895
What it said to watch
Hourly close below 0.6950 (rising support / mon ny low) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the weekly open at 0.6942 and 50% fib near 0.6947
Failure at the weekly open opens the monday low at 0.6932, close to the 61.8% fib
Recovery back above the tuesday low at 0.6961 and the ema20 near 0.6972 would mark the dip as a pullback within the uptrend
Close above the 0.6990 week high puts 0.7000 back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today plus the US 10y auction could materially shift this read
AU consumer inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC
10:04 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 0.69675
From the 0.6942 weekly open and Monday's Asia dip to 0.6932, AUD/USD built higher lows through London and NY sessions. Tuesday's NY push set a week high at 0.6990, just shy of the 0.70 handle. Wednesday's Asia and London hours faded back below EMA(20) at 0.6973 as USD firmed with 10y yields back above 5.30% ahead of the FOMC Minutes. The Wednesday low at 0.6964 sits on the higher-low trendline and the 38.2% fib of the week impulse, with RSI(14) near 41 and EMA(50) at about 0.6969 just overhead.
Support: 0.69637, 0.69495, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6960 breaks the higher-low trendline and the 38.2% fib, exposing the Monday NY low at 0.6950 and the 0.6942 weekly open
Recovery above EMA(20) at 0.6973 would mark the pullback as contained; a close above the 0.6990 week high opens the 0.7000 round number
FOMC Minutes (18:00 GMT) and the US 10-year auction today could materially shift this read; AU consumer inflation expectations follow Thu 00:00 UTC
09:06 UTC
Uptrend from Monday low, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 0.69725
Higher lows intact; lower highs since Tuesday's 0.6990 top.
AUDUSD climbed from Monday's Asia-session low at 0.6932, just under the 0.6942 weekly open, to a week high of 0.6990 at Tuesday's NY open. London and early NY drove both legs, but the advance met rejection short of 0.7000. Wednesday's Asia and London sessions faded the move to a 0.6964 wed low, near the 38.2% retracement, as yield-driven USD demand returned ahead of the FOMC Minutes. Price has since bounced to sit on EMA(20) at 0.6974 while holding above EMA(50) at 0.6969. RSI(14) has eased to 48 from the low 60s, and the higher-low trendline from Monday is still intact beneath a short run of lower highs.
Support: 0.69689, 0.69637, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69738, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close above the 0.6990 week high ends the lower-highs sequence and exposes the 0.7000 round number
Close below the 0.6964 wed low and the higher-low trendline turns structure toward the 0.6942 weekly open
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read via US yields
AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations, Thu 00:00 UTC, lands in the Asia session
08:04 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 42 · price 0.69665
Higher lows since Monday; rising trendline broken in Wednesday Asia.
AUDUSD built higher lows from Monday's 0.6932 Asia week low, with London and NY sessions driving the advance to a 0.6990 week high on Tuesday, where a long upper wick marked rejection below the 0.7000 handle. Wednesday's Asia session broke the rising trendline from Monday, and price now trades below EMA(20) near 0.6974, sitting on the 38.2% fib of the week impulse around 0.6968 with RSI(14) eased to about 42. The fade follows weak AiG and Westpac data, fading RBA November hike pricing and a firmer USD into tonight's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.69613, 0.69424, 0.69319
Resistance: 0.6974, 0.69839, 0.69895
What it said to watch
Failure to hold the 0.6961 tuesday low, which aligns with the 50% fib, breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6942 weekly open
A break below the weekly open puts Monday's 0.6932 week low back in play
H1 close back above EMA(20) and the 0.6984 Asia high restores the uptrend read, with the 0.6990 week high and 0.7000 above
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read
Mon–Tue higher lows; higher-low line broken in Asia, 38.2% retrace being tested.
AUDUSD opened the week at 0.6942 and set a 0.6932 week low in Monday's Asia session. It then built higher lows into Tuesday's 0.6990 week high around the NY open, a Monday–Tuesday impulse helped by Friday's soft US payrolls and Monday's PMI beats. Supply has capped the advance just shy of the 0.7000 psych handle, and drift during today's Asia session has taken price below ema20 (~0.6975) and through the higher-low line, with RSI(14) back to 43 from the low 60s. The 0.6966 day low sits on the 38.2% retrace of the impulse, and price is pinned to EMA(50).
Support: 0.6966, 0.6961, 0.6932
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6961 tuesday low ends the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6942 weekly open, then the 0.6932 week low
Recovery above ema20 at 0.6975 followed by a close through the 0.6990 week high puts the 0.7000 psych handle back in play
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read; AU Consumer Inflation Expectations at Thu 00:00 UTC follows
06:03 UTC
Uptrend since Monday, pulling back · RSI 38 · price 0.69689
Higher lows Mon–Tue, first lower high today.
AUDUSD built higher lows from Monday's Asia dip at 0.6932, after Friday's soft NFP lift, and broke out into the NY open Tuesday to a week high at 0.6990, where it met rejection just shy of the 0.7000 round number. Since the Asia session today price has slipped back below EMA(20), printing a lower high at 0.6984 and now testing the 38.2% fib of the week's rally near 0.6967, with RSI(14) easing toward 38 into today's FOMC Minutes.
Support: 0.6967, 0.6961, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6984, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the tuesday low at 0.6961 (50% fib) breaks the week's higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6950 swing low
Recovery through the 0.6984 lower high and the 0.6990 week high reopens the 0.7000 round number
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 GMT today could materially shift this read via US yields
05:05 UTC
Uptrend, pulling back from week high · RSI 41 · price 0.69687
Higher lows since Thursday's 0.6903 low; slip under EMA(20) testing the rising line.
AUD/USD has printed higher lows since Thursday's NY-session low at 0.6903. The soft US payrolls spike on Friday and Monday's NY rally carried it to a 0.6990 week high in Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's Asia session has faded that move as RBA hike bets ease and the USD retakes 102.00, putting price below EMA(20) at 0.6976 and pressing EMA(50) and the higher-lows line near 0.6969, roughly the 23.6% fib of the Thursday-to-Tuesday leg. RSI(14) has rolled from the 60s to about 41, with ranges compressing to around 5 pips per bar.
Support: 0.69613, 0.69495, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.69756, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6961 tuesday low breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 38.2% fib near 0.6957 and the 0.6950 monday low
Recovery back above the 0.6976 ema20 restores the pullback-within-uptrend read, with the 0.6990 week high and 0.7000 round number above
Loss of the 0.6942 weekly open would erase the week's gains
FOMC Minutes at 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields
03:04 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading · RSI 44 · price 0.69725
Higher lows since Monday's 0.6932 low; flat highs at 0.6986–0.6990, pullback under way.
AUD/USD has built higher lows since Monday's Asia dip to 0.6932. The USD fade after Friday's soft payrolls carried it through London and into the NY open on Tuesday, reaching a 0.6990 week high. Highs have since flattened near the Tue NY highs around 0.6986, short of the 0.7000 round number. Wednesday's Asia session has slipped below the higher-low trendline and EMA(20) to the 0.6971 Asia low, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the Mon-Tue leg, with RSI(14) easing to the mid-40s and EMA(50) just below near 0.6969.
Support: 0.6971, 0.6961, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6971 Asia low and the 0.6961 swing low (near the 50% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence
Weekly open at 0.6942 is the next structural reference if the swing low gives way
Recovery above the Tue NY highs at 0.6986 and the 0.6990 week high puts the 0.7000 round number in play
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since Monday, now sideways under 0.6990.
AUD/USD has run from Monday's Asia-session low at 0.6932 to a week high at 0.6990 in Tuesday's London-NY transition, the weekly rally carried by a softer USD after Friday's payroll miss. Since then price has gone sideways in a 0.6974–0.6987 band and slipped marginally below ema20 and the rising trendline from Monday's low, with RSI(14) easing under 50 as momentum fades. The 23.6% retracement of the weekly rally sits just under the 0.6974 pullback low.
Support: 0.69742, 0.69613, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below the 0.6974 pullback low exposes the 0.6961 tuesday low, which aligns with the 50% fib of the weekly rally
Failure to hold the 0.6961 tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and opens the weekly open at 0.6942
A reclaim of ema20 and a close above the 0.6990 week high puts the 0.7000 round number in play
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AU Consumer Inflation Expectations Thu 00:00 UTC is a second risk window for the pair
Higher lows since Monday; shallow consolidation under 0.6990.
From Monday's Asia low at 0.6932, the pair has printed a clean higher-low sequence. London drove both legs higher on the softer USD and the pullback in yields, with the move topping at the 0.6990 week high early in Tuesday's NY session. Since then price has held a 0.6974–0.6987 range, the Tue NY low intact, and the Asian session is drifting just under the flattening EMA(20) near 0.6980 with RSI(14) back near 48. The pullback sits at roughly the 23.6% retracement of the week's impulse, and price is pressing the rising higher-low trendline.
Support: 0.69742, 0.69613, 0.69424
Resistance: 0.6980, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read in either direction
H1 close back above EMA(20) and the 0.6990 week high exposes the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6974 Tue NY low breaks the higher-low trendline and puts the 0.6961 Tue low (near the 50% fib) in focus
Loss of 0.6961 reopens the path toward the 0.6942 weekly open
Higher lows since Thursday, compressing at EMA(20).
Higher lows have stacked up since Thursday's 0.6903 low. The soft US payrolls print lifted price from 0.6931 to 0.6975 in Friday's NY session, and the rally then extended off a gap-down weekly open at 0.6942 through Monday's 0.6932 and Tuesday's 0.6961 lows. Tuesday's London-NY transition met rejection at the 0.6990 week high, short of the 0.70 round number, and price has since compressed into a 0.6978–0.6987 range through the Asia session. Price is now sitting on EMA(20) and the rising trendline from Monday's low, with RSI(14) easing back to the mid-50s and ATR contracting.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6961, 0.6942
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H1 close below 0.6978 (ema20 / rising trendline) exposes the 0.6961 Tuesday low
Failure to hold the 0.6961 Tuesday low breaks the higher-low sequence and puts the weekly open at 0.6942, near the 38.2% of the Thu–Tue rally, in focus
H1 close above the 0.6990 week high brings the 0.70 round number into play
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AU consumer inflation expectations Thu 00:00 UTC are a secondary AUD risk