AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 1-hour chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026

Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 1-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.

23:04 UTC

Range-bound, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 53 · price 0.69583

Lower highs from 0.6990 week high, floor at 0.6932 tested twice.

AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's NY-session week high at 0.6990. Thursday's London slide to 0.6932 retested Monday's week low as hawkish FOMC minutes and elevated UST yields lifted USD, and the NY-open spike high at 0.6973 on Iran de-escalation headlines was rejected within the hour. Price now sits just above EMA(20) near 0.6955 and fractionally below EMA(50), between the 38.2% and the fib 50% retracement of the week's decline, with RSI(14) neutral near 53.

Support: 0.6955, 0.6943, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6973, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the wed low at 0.6943 exposes the 0.6932 week low, the floor of the range
  • Close above the fib 50% at 0.6961 and the 0.6973 spike high breaks the lower-highs sequence from the 0.6990 week high
  • Loss of EMA(20) near 0.6955 returns price to the lower half of the week's range
  • UoM sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins, Fri 14:00 UTC, could materially shift this read

22:04 UTC

Range-bound, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 52 · price 0.69576

0.6932–0.6990 weekly range; lower highs off Tuesday's top, week low defended twice.

AUDUSD has stayed inside a 0.6932–0.6990 range all week. The week high at 0.6990 printed around Tuesday's NY open, and price has made lower highs since, with the hawkish FOMC minutes lifting USD into Wednesday's London session. Thursday's London dip broke the Wednesday low at 0.6944 and tagged the week low near Monday's 0.6932 before reclaiming it, while the NY spike on Iran de-escalation headlines faded below the Thursday high at 0.6973; price now sits just above EMA(20) and fractionally below EMA(50), with RSI(14) flat near 52, between the 38.2% and 50% levels of the week-decline fib.

Support: 0.6944, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the Thursday high at 0.6973 breaks the lower-high trendline from Tuesday
  • Failure to hold the Wednesday low at 0.6944 exposes the week low at 0.6932; acceptance below it ends the range read
  • US prelim UoM sentiment and inflation expectations (Fri 14:00 UTC) plus Fed's Collins could materially shift this read
  • Week high at 0.6990 remains the range top to watch for rejection or break

21:07 UTC

Downtrend since Tuesday high, momentum flattening · RSI 52 · price 0.69575

Lower highs and lower lows from 0.6990; Thursday low retested Monday's week low.

The rally from Monday's 0.6932 week low peaked at the 0.6990 week high during Tuesday's London session. Hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near multi-decade highs then drove the Tue-Thu drop, with a London-led flush on Thursday retesting the week low. The NY bounce stalled at the 0.6973 Thu high, under the lower-highs trendline, and price now sits pinned between the ema20 at 0.6954 and the ema50 at 0.6960, with RSI(14) flat near 52.

Support: 0.6954, 0.69424, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6960, 0.69726, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 0.6973 Thu high and the lower-highs trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs since Tuesday
  • Repeated closes below the ema50 at 0.6960 keep the Tue-Thu drop structure intact
  • Loss of the 0.6942 week open, which matches Wednesday's low, exposes the 0.6932 week low; a break there undercuts Monday's base
  • UMich sentiment and inflation expectations plus Fed's Collins on Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read

20:04 UTC

Pullback from Tuesday high, lower highs · RSI 54 · price 0.69604

Lower highs from 0.6990 inside the 0.6932–0.6990 weekly range.

AUDUSD rallied from the 0.6932 week low on Monday to the 0.6990 week high at the London-NY transition on Tuesday. Since then it has printed lower highs as hawkish FOMC minutes and rising US yields lifted USD, with Wednesday's London drop finding the 0.6942 weekly open. Thursday's London dip held the week low, and the NY bounce on Iran de-escalation headlines met rejection at 0.6973 (thu high). Price now sits near the 50% retracement of the Tuesday–Thursday decline, marginally above a flattened ema20 near 0.6955, with RSI(14) neutral in the mid-50s.

Support: 0.6955, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above 0.6973 thu high and the lower-high trendline breaks the sequence of lower highs and reopens the 0.6990 week high
  • Failure to hold the 0.6942 weekly open exposes the 0.6932 week low; a close below it prints a fresh weekly lower low
  • Repeated H1 closes below the ema20 at 0.6955 would show the NY bounce has faded back into the range
  • UMich sentiment, inflation expectations and Fed's Collins on Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via US yields

19:03 UTC

Pullback from week high, stalling above week low · RSI 53 · price 0.69558

Lower highs since Tuesday; repeat low at 0.6932.

AUDUSD has unwound Tuesday's early-NY push to the 0.6990 week high. Lower highs printed through Wednesday's London session as the dollar firmed around the FOMC minutes and US yields climbed. Thursday's London dip held 0.6932, matching Monday's week low, and an NY-hours spike to the 0.6973 prior high was rejected, leaving price pinned at EMA20 (0.6954, also the 38.2% retracement) and below the fib 50% at 0.6961, with RSI(14) near 53.

Support: 0.6954, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6973, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6942 week open exposes the 0.6932 week low again
  • Break of the 0.6932 week low turns the lower-high sequence into a lower-low
  • Holds above the fib 50% at 0.6961 and the 0.6973 prior high would break the lower-high trendline from 0.6990
  • US UoM sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read

18:03 UTC

Range, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 50 · price 0.69571

0.6932-0.6990 week range, mid-range compression.

From the 0.6942 weekly open, London and NY sessions on Monday and Tuesday carried AUDUSD to a 0.6990 week high. Since then the pair has printed lower highs and given back almost the whole leg as USD firmed on hawkish FOMC minutes and the long-end bond selloff. Thursday's London dip held 0.6932, matching Monday's week low, and the NY spike to the 0.6973 thu high was rejected inside an hour; price now sits on EMA(20) near 0.6954, with EMA(50) at 0.6959 overhead and RSI(14) flat near 50.

Support: 0.6954, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6973, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6932 week low breaks the range floor and confirms the lower-high sequence
  • Hold above the 0.6942 weekly open (Wednesday's low area) keeps the mid-range read intact
  • H1 close above ema50 and the 0.6973 thu high breaks the lower-highs trendline, bringing the 0.6990 week high back into focus
  • US Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could materially shift this read via yields

17:04 UTC

Range, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 47 · price 0.69523

Lower highs from 0.6990 inside a 0.6932-0.6990 weekly range.

AUDUSD has given back the Monday–Tuesday advance from the 0.6932 week low to the 0.6990 week high, printing lower highs since Tuesday's NY session as hawkish FOMC minutes and firmer US yields kept USD bid. Thursday's London dip retested the week low, and a NY-hours spike to the thu high at 0.6973 was rejected within the hour. Price now sits on the ema20 near 0.6953, at the 38.2% fib of the decline, with RSI(14) flat near 47 and the weekly open at 0.6942 as the nearer floor.

Support: 0.69424, 0.69319

Resistance: 0.6953, 0.69726, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6932 week low breaks the range floor and extends the lower-high sequence into a lower-low
  • H1 close above the thu high at 0.6973 clears the lower-highs trendline and opens the path back to the 0.6990 week high
  • Holding the ema20 and 38.2% fib near 0.6953 vs slipping back to the weekly open at 0.6942
  • Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC today and Friday's Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations at 14:00 UTC could shift the read via US yields

16:04 UTC

Downtrend since Tuesday's high, momentum soft · RSI 41 · price 0.69466

Lower highs and lower lows from 0.6990, retesting Monday's low.

AUDUSD rallied from Monday's 0.6932 week low to Tuesday's 0.6990 week high in early NY trade. It has since printed lower highs and lower lows as hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs weighed, and Thursday's London session revisited the week low. The NY-hours spike to the 0.6973 thu high stalled above the 61.8% of the Tue–Thu decline, under the lower-high line, and was fully rejected back below EMA(20) at 0.6952, leaving price just above the weekly open at 0.6942 with RSI(14) near 41 and both EMAs overhead.

Support: 0.69424, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6952, 0.69726, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6932 week low would mark a full reversal of the week's rally
  • Close above the 0.6973 thu high and the lower-high line invalidates the lower-high sequence, with the 0.6990 week high next
  • Failure to hold the weekly open at 0.6942 keeps the week-low retest in play
  • Fed's Musalem at 17:40 UTC today and Friday's Michigan sentiment and inflation expectations could materially shift this read

15:04 UTC

Range-bound, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 51 · price 0.6962

0.6932–0.6990 weekly range; retest of week low held.

AUDUSD has rotated inside a 0.6932–0.6990 range since Monday's open. Tuesday's London push to the week high has fully unwound as USD firmed on hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs. London today retested Monday's 0.6932 week low, and the NY rebound reclaimed EMA(20) near 0.6955, but the bounce met rejection at the 0.6973 session high, below a line of lower highs from Tuesday, leaving price at the 50% retracement of the week high-low move with RSI(14) near 51.

Support: 0.6955, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 0.6973 session high and the lower highs line opens a retest of the 0.6990 week high.
  • Loss of EMA(20) near 0.6955 returns focus to the 0.6942 weekly open, which also marks Wednesday's low.
  • A break of the 0.6932 week low voids the double bottom read and exposes the ~0.6900 three-month low.
  • Fed's Musalem (17:40 UTC) and Friday's UoM sentiment could materially shift this read via US yields.

14:03 UTC

Downtrend since Tuesday's week high, lower highs intact · RSI 46 · price 0.69528

Lower highs from 0.6990; week low at 0.6932 held on Thursday's retest.

AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's NY-open week high at 0.6990. Hawkish Fed minutes and US yields near 2002 highs kept the pair heavy into Thursday's London session, which retested the week low at 0.6932, Monday's Asia-session low. The rejection there lifted price into the NY open around the US claims release, and it now sits on EMA(20) and the 38.2% fib of the Tuesday-to-Thursday drop at 0.6954, just above the week open at 0.6942.

Support: 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6954, 0.6969, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6932 week low confirms a lower-low and puts the 0.6900 three-month low in view
  • Acceptance above the 0.6969 Wed high and the lower-highs line breaks the downtrend read and reopens the 0.6990 week high
  • Failure at the fib 38.2% / EMA20 area near 0.6954 keeps the lower-high sequence intact
  • Fed's Kashkari (14:40 UTC) and Musalem (17:40 UTC), plus Friday's Michigan sentiment, could shift the read via US yields

13:04 UTC

Downtrend since Tuesday's high · RSI 37 · price 0.69428

Lower highs and lower lows from 0.6990, retesting Monday's week low.

AUDUSD has unwound Monday–Tuesday's rally from the 0.6932 week low to the 0.6990 week high, which printed at Tuesday's NY open. Since then the pair has carved a sequence of lower highs at 0.6969 and 0.6962 under a falling trendline, with the sharpest legs coming in London hours as hawkish Fed minutes and US yields near 2002 highs kept USD bid. Today's London drop retested the 0.6932 week low almost to the pip, and price now sits on the weekly open at 0.6942, below a declining EMA(20) near 0.6951 with RSI(14) in the high 30s.

Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6900

Resistance: 0.6951, 0.6962, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6932 week low extends the lower-low sequence and puts the 0.6900 3m low in view
  • Recovery above the 0.6962 lower high and the falling trendline breaks this week's lower-high structure
  • Pullbacks stalling at the 0.6951 ema20 keep the downtrend read intact
  • US jobless claims (just released) and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could move yields and this read; RBA minutes Tue 00:30 UTC

12:04 UTC

Downtrend, pressing week low · RSI 33 · price 0.69385

Lower highs since Tuesday's 0.6990 top; Monday rally fully retraced.

A two-day slide from Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, set into the NY open, has unwound the whole Monday rally. Each H1 bounce has capped lower, at 0.6969 late Wednesday and then a lower high of 0.6962 at Thursday's London open, as hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs kept USD bid. Price has slipped back under the 0.6942 weekly open and sits below both the ema20 and EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 33, pressing the 0.6932 week low printed in Monday's Asia session.

Support: 0.69319, 0.6900

Resistance: 0.69424, 0.6953, 0.69617

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6932 week low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6900 3m low
  • Reclaim of the 0.6942 weekly open and the ema20 near 0.6953 would stall the lower-high sequence
  • Break above the lower-high trendline near 0.6960, where the 50% fib of the Tuesday–Thursday decline sits, neutralises the downtrend read
  • US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari/Musalem Fedspeak could materially shift this read; RBA Minutes due Tue 00:30 UTC

11:03 UTC

Downtrend from Tuesday's week high, testing lows · RSI 35 · price 0.6944

Lower highs since Tuesday, flat floor at weekly open.

Monday's rally from the 0.6932 week low ran through London and NY into Tuesday's 0.6990 week high. It has since unwound in a sequence of lower highs, the latest at 0.6962. Wednesday's London-hours drop and Thursday's Asia and London selling, framed by hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs, have pushed price back to the 0.6942 weekly open, close to the 78.6% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday rally. Price is below the ema20 at ~0.6955 with RSI(14) near 35, and the pullbacks this week have stalled under the ema20 rather than reclaiming it.

Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6900

Resistance: 0.6955, 0.6962, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open and Wednesday's low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6932 week low
  • Loss of the 0.6932 week low opens the 0.6900 3m low flagged in the AUD digest
  • Recovery above the 0.6962 lower high and the falling trendline from the week high breaks the lower-high sequence
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari/Musalem Fedspeak could materially shift this read via yields
  • Retake of the 0.6990 week high would void the post-Tuesday downtrend read

10:03 UTC

Pullback from Tuesday high, lower highs · RSI 41 · price 0.69511

Lower highs pressing a flat 0.6942-0.6945 base.

AUDUSD has printed lower highs since Tuesday's NY-open peak at the 0.6990 week high. Wednesday's London sell-off and an Asia-session leg today both found demand at the 0.6942-0.6945 twin lows, which sit on the weekly open. Price holds below the EMA(20) near 0.6956 and below the EMA(50), with RSI(14) near 41. It sits between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the Monday-Tuesday rally, as hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs cap each rebound.

Support: 0.6945, 0.6932, 0.6900

Resistance: 0.6956, 0.6962, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6942 twin lows exposes the 0.6932 weekly low, then the 0.6900 3-month low
  • H1 close above the lower highs trendline near 0.6962, and back above the ema20, neutralises the pullback read and brings the 0.6990 week high back into view
  • US Initial Jobless Claims at 12:30 UTC and Kashkari at 14:40 UTC could shift this read through the US yield channel

08:03 UTC

Downtrend from Tuesday's week high, momentum soft · RSI 39 · price 0.69508

Lower highs since Tuesday, lows holding 0.6942-0.6945.

AUD/USD has given back most of the Monday–Tuesday rally from the 0.6932 monday low to the 0.6990 week high. Wednesday's London-session selloff and the drift after the hawkish FOMC Minutes left a lower high near 0.6969, and the lower-highs line from Tuesday has capped every rebound since. Price now sits below EMA(20) and EMA(50), between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement of that rally, with RSI(14) near 39 and hourly ATR compressed to about 7 pips, while the asia low at 0.6945 and the weekly open at 0.6942 have absorbed two dips and the ema20 near 0.6957 caps rebounds.

Support: 0.69447, 0.69424, 0.69319

Resistance: 0.69575, 0.69691, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open confirms a lower low and exposes the 0.6932 monday low
  • Close above the 0.6969 lower high and the lower-highs line invalidates the downtrend read and points back toward the 0.6990 week high
  • Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could materially shift this read
  • RBA Minutes Tue 00:30 UTC are the next AUD-specific risk to the current structure

07:03 UTC

Downtrend since Tuesday high, base holding · RSI 38 · price 0.69487

Lower highs from 0.6990 pressing a flat base at the weekly open.

The week high at 0.6990 printed early in Tuesday's NY session. Since then H1 has made a lower high at each bounce, and Wednesday's London slide on the hawkish FOMC minutes and 5.3%-area US yields ran back to the weekly open at 0.6942. The rebound stalled near the 61.8% fib of that decline, at the 0.6968 lower high. Thursday's Asia session is back retesting the weekly open with price below the EMA20 at 0.6957 and RSI(14) under 40.

Support: 0.69424, 0.69319

Resistance: 0.6957, 0.69685, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the two-day base and exposes the 0.6932 Monday low
  • H1 close above the 0.6968 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline sequence from the 0.6990 week high
  • Reclaim of the ema20 near 0.6957 would mark the first failed push lower off the base
  • Fed's Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields

06:03 UTC

Downtrend from Tuesday's week high · RSI 36 · price 0.69469

Lower highs since 0.6990, testing weekly open.

The Monday-Tuesday rally from the 0.6932 week low topped at 0.6990 in Tuesday's NY session. Since then the pair has printed a lower-highs sequence, with Wednesday's London selloff on firm US yields reaching 0.6942, the weekly open. Thursday's Asia bounce on the 5.3% inflation expectations print met rejection at 0.6968, and price is back below EMA(20) near 0.6958 and pressing the weekly open again, beyond the 61.8% retracement of the week's rally.

Support: 0.69424, 0.69319

Resistance: 0.69575, 0.69679, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6942 weekly open confirms a lower-low and puts the 0.6932 week low back in play
  • Recovery above EMA(20) and a close over the 0.6968 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline
  • A new low under 0.6942 without a fresh RSI low would flag bullish divergence
  • Waller (08:30 UTC) and US jobless claims (12:30 UTC) could materially shift this read via yields
  • Week high at 0.6990 remains the cap on the broader weekly range

05:05 UTC

Sideways to softer, momentum fading below EMA(20) · RSI 42 · price 0.69551

Lower highs from the 0.6990 week high inside the 0.6932–0.6990 range; higher low at the weekly open.

Monday's London rally off the 0.6932 week low ran into Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, where price was rejected at the 0.6985/0.70 cap. Since then the pair has carved lower highs. Wednesday's London selloff found demand at the 0.6942 weekly open, but the bounce stalled at 0.6969 into the hawkish FOMC Minutes, and the Thursday Asian high at 0.6968 extended the lower-highs sequence. Price now sits below EMA(20) near 0.6961 with RSI(14) around 42, testing the 0.6954 Asian low at the 61.8% retracement of the Monday leg.

Support: 0.6954, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6961, 0.6968, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6954 Asian low exposes the 0.6942 weekly open and the 0.6932 week low
  • A break of the 0.6942 weekly open would end the higher-low sequence from Monday
  • Close back above EMA(20) and the 0.6968 Asian high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.6990 week high
  • US Initial Jobless Claims plus Waller and Musalem Fedspeak today could materially shift this read

04:03 UTC

Pullback inside the weekly range, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 44 · price 0.69563

Lower highs from 0.6990 week high; higher low at 0.6954 vs Wednesday's 0.6942.

The Monday–Tuesday rally from the 0.6932 week low topped at the 0.6990 week high into Tuesday's NY open. Wednesday's London-into-NY selloff then retraced to 0.6942, back to the weekly open and close to the 78.6% fib, with USD firm on 24-year-high yields. Since the hawkish FOMC Minutes, bounces have shown rejection at the 0.6968 lower high, and price is pinned below a flat ema20 near 0.6960, sitting on the 61.8% fib with the Asia low at 0.6954 underneath.

Support: 0.6954, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6968, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6954 asia low exposes the 0.6942 weekly open and the rising support from Monday's low
  • Failure to hold the 0.6932 week low unwinds the entire Monday–Tuesday rally
  • H1 close above the 0.6968 lower high and the falling trendline from 0.6990 breaks the pullback structure; the week high at 0.6990 sits above
  • US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) plus Waller and Musalem Fedspeak could materially shift this read

03:04 UTC

Range-bound after Mon–Tue rally, momentum flat · RSI 46 · price 0.69621

Contracting range: higher lows from 0.6932, lower highs from 0.6990.

The week opened at 0.6942 and rallied from the 0.6932 week low into a 0.6990 week high during Tuesday's NY session. Wednesday's London-into-NY sell-off retraced back to the weekly open as yields and oil lifted USD, then recovered to a 0.6969 lower high, with the FOMC minutes drawing only a muted H1 response. Price now sits on the 50% retracement of the Mon–Tue rally, just under the ema20. The Thursday Asia low at 0.6954 held the 61.8% level, and RSI(14) is near 46.

Support: 0.6954, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6963, 0.6969, 0.6990

What it said to watch

  • H1 close below the 0.6954 thu low exposes the 0.6942 weekly open and the higher-lows line
  • Failure to hold the weekly open area would break the higher-lows sequence back toward the 0.6932 week low
  • H1 close above the 0.6969 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.6990 week high
  • Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC (f/c 200K) could break the range

02:04 UTC

Sideways, lower highs since Tuesday · RSI 48 · price 0.69651

Mid-range after ~80% retrace of Mon–Tue rally.

The week's dominant move was the Monday–Tuesday rally from the 0.6932 monday low to the 0.6990 week high. A USD bid on surging Treasury yields then drove a London-session drop on Wednesday that retraced about 80% and stalled at the weekly open at 0.6942, while the hawkish FOMC minutes produced only a shallow dip into Asia that held the 61.8 fib at 0.6954 as a higher low. Price now sits mid-range on EMA(20) and just under EMA(50), RSI(14) near 48, capped beneath Wednesday's 0.6969 lower high.

Support: 0.6954, 0.6942, 0.6932

Resistance: 0.6969, 0.6990, 0.7000

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 0.6969 lower high reopens the 0.6990 week high, with 0.7000 psych resistance above
  • Failure to hold the 61.8 fib at 0.6954 exposes the weekly open at 0.6942 and the monday low at 0.6932
  • Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could shift this read through US yields

01:04 UTC

Pullback from week high, trading below both EMAs · RSI 46 · price 0.69563

Lower high at 0.6969 under the 0.6990 top, mid-range above the weekly open.

The rally from Monday's 0.6932 week low to Tuesday's 0.6990 week high was rejected. Most of it was given back in Wednesday's London session, which tagged the 0.6942 weekly open before NY hours bounced only to a 0.6969 lower high. Price faded after the hawkish Fed minutes and slipped to a fresh Asia low at 0.6954. It now sits below EMA(20) near 0.6962, around the 61.8% level of the Mon-Tue rally fib, with RSI(14) near 46 in a neutral zone.

Support: 0.69543, 0.69424, 0.69319

Resistance: 0.6962, 0.69691, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • An H1 close back above the 0.6969 lower high and the lower-high line invalidates the pullback structure
  • Failure to hold the 0.6954 Asia low puts the 0.6942 weekly open back in play, with the 0.6932 week low below
  • Rejection at EMA(20) near 0.6962 keeps the sequence of lower highs intact
  • Fed's Waller at 08:30 UTC and US jobless claims at 12:30 UTC could materially shift the USD side of this read

00:04 UTC

Range after Mon-Tue rally, lower highs since · RSI 47 · price 0.69605

0.6942-0.6990 range, higher lows vs lower highs.

From the 0.6942 weekly open and Monday's 0.6932 Asia-session low, AUDUSD rallied through London and NY into Tuesday's 0.6990 week high, stalling just under the 0.70 handle. Wednesday's London slide retested the weekly open to the pip. The NY rebound then stopped at a 0.6969 lower high and faded after hawkish FOMC minutes revived USD demand. Price now sits at 0.6960, the 50% retracement of the week's rally, just under EMA(20) at 0.6963 with RSI(14) near 47, and the Asia session is holding a tight range above the 0.6957 asia low.

Support: 0.69566, 0.69424, 0.69319

Resistance: 0.6963, 0.69691, 0.69895

What it said to watch

  • H1 close above the 0.6969 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and reopens the 0.6990 week high
  • Failure to hold the 0.6942 weekly open breaks the higher-lows sequence and exposes the 0.6932 monday low
  • Loss of the 0.6957 asia low with EMA(20) at 0.6963 capping keeps the 50% retracement of the week rally in question
  • Waller (08:30 UTC) and Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC) could shift USD yields and this read; AU consumer inflation expectations due around 00:00 UTC

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