AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Thursday, 8 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:06 UTC
Downtrend, stalling into a range · RSI 45 · price 0.69604
Lower highs/lower lows from 0.7187 to 0.6903; base range 0.6932-0.6990 since.
The three-week decline from 0.7187 printed lower highs and lower lows into the 0.6903 swing low. Since then price has held a 0.6932-0.6990 base, with the week high stalling just under the 38.2% fib near 0.6994 and subsequent lower highs slipping to 0.6975 as hawkish Fed minutes and elevated UST yields kept USD firm. ATR(14) has compressed to roughly 16 pips from 25+ during the selloff; price is hugging a flat EMA20 near 0.6960 with EMA50 just overhead, so there is no bullish cross yet.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6990, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6932 range floor, tested twice this week, exposes the 0.6903 swing low and the 0.6900 area
Break above the 0.6975 lower highs line and the 0.6990 week high (38.2% fib) reopens the 0.7040 prior range
EMA20 crossing above EMA50 would mark a shift from the downtrend structure
US UMich sentiment and inflation expectations Fri 14:00 UTC could move USD via yields
RBA Minutes Tue Oct 13 00:30 UTC; a hawkish tilt could test the range top
Lower highs and lower lows from 0.7187; rebound capped at 0.6990 lower high.
Lower-high, lower-low sequence intact from the 0.7187 window high to the 0.6903 three-month low. The rebound stalled at 0.6990, almost exactly the 61.8% fib of the 0.7042–0.6903 leg, leaving a lower high under the descending trendline. Price has slipped back below both converged EMAs to retest the 0.6932 swing low as hawkish FOMC minutes and US yields near 2002 highs weigh on AUD. ATR(14) near 17 pips sits well below the late-September expansion, so the pair is compressing into the swing low.
Support: 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6975, 0.6990, 0.7004
What it said to watch
H4 close below the 0.6932 swing low resumes the lower-low sequence toward the 0.6903 three-month low
Reclaim of the 0.6975 swing high and the lower-high trendline would neutralise the downtrend read
Acceptance above the 0.6990 61.8% fib and the 0.7004 prior low turns the bounce into a structural shift
US jobless claims and Kashkari/Musalem today, via US yields, could extend or reverse the current leg
RBA minutes Tue 00:30 UTC: a hawkish read on 5.3% inflation expectations could lift AUD off the swing low
Higher lows inside 0.6942-0.6990 range after selloff.
The three-week slide from 0.7220 found a floor at the 0.6903 window low. Since then price has printed higher lows at the 0.6932 prior low and the 0.6942 higher low inside a 0.6942-0.6990 range, with the range top stalling just under the 38.2% fib of the 0.7140-0.6903 leg. ATR(14) has compressed to about 14 pips from 20+ during the selloff, and price sits just below flattening, converging EMA20/EMA50 as hawkish FOMC Minutes and US 10y yields near 5.29% keep USD firm.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6932, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7042
What it said to watch
An H4 close below the 0.6942 higher low breaks the rising support line and puts the 0.6932 prior low and 0.6903 window low back in play
A close above the 0.6990 range top and the 0.7000 round number would mark the first higher high since the selloff, exposing the 0.7042 prior high
US Initial Jobless Claims and Fedspeak today, then RBA Minutes on Tue 00:30 UTC, could resolve the ATR compression either way
Lower highs from 0.7222; higher lows since the 0.6903 low, capped below 0.7000.
The three-week lower-high, lower-low sequence from 0.7222 bottomed at the 0.6903 window low. Since then the pair has printed higher lows along a rising trendline, but the rebound stalled at the 0.6990 swing high, near the 64% fib retracement of the late-September leg and just under the 0.7000 round number. Hawkish Fed minutes and 5%+ US yields knocked price back to the 0.6942 swing low. Price now sits just under a flattening EMA20, with EMA50 still overhead. ATR(14) has compressed to about 15 pips from the mid-20s during the selloff, consistent with a narrowing 0.6940–0.6990 band.
Support: 0.6942, 0.6903
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7040
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6990 swing high and 0.7000 round number breaks the lower-high sequence and opens the 0.7040 prior range
Failure to hold the 0.6942 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6903 window low
Fed's Waller and US jobless claims on Thursday could break the current compression
RBA Minutes on Oct 13 00:30 UTC are the main AUD-specific risk to this read