AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Tuesday, 6 October 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:47 UTC
Sideways after NY high, slight downward drift · RSI 42 · price 0.6980
Lower high under 0.6990, compressing 0.6978–0.6987.
Softer yields carried AUDUSD to a day high at 0.6990 early in the NY session. A lower high at 0.6987 has formed since, and price has drifted into a tight 0.6978–0.6987 band in thin early Asia trade. The 0.6978 late low sits on the 50% fib of the London-NY leg, with RSI(14) near 42 and price just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6974
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 late low opens the 0.6974 NY low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6975
Close above the 0.6987 lower high and the falling trendline puts the 0.6990 day high and 0.7000 round number back in play
A US 10y move back above ~5.29% would add pressure on the 0.6978 late low
23:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend stalling, drifting lower into early Asia · RSI 38 · price 0.69783
Higher lows from 0.6961 intact, lower high at 0.6987; 0.6974–0.6990 consolidation.
London broke the Asian range top near 0.6976, and NY extended to the 0.6990 ny high as the USD eased with yields, stalling just above the 0.6985 cap flagged in the digest. Since then the pair has held a 0.6974–0.6990 consolidation, with a lower high at 0.6987. Thin early Asia trade is now retesting the 0.6978 rollover low, which sits on the 38.2% fib of the 0.6961–0.6990 leg, with price below both EMAs.
Support: 0.69781, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6974 ny low (near the 50% fib) breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6966 pullback low
Recovery above the 0.6987 lower high reopens the 0.6990 ny high and the 0.7000 round number
US 10y yield moves around 5.25–5.29% remain the main driver in a quiet Asia session
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high under the 0.69895 session high; tight post-NY range 0.6978–0.6987.
London cleared the Asian range high and the 0.69665 london low launched a leg to a 0.69895 session high, just through the 0.6985 cap, as the USD eased. NY rejected it back to the 0.69742 ny low. A 0.69868 lower high followed, and price is now drifting in thin post-NY trade near the 38.2% of that leg, RSI(14) at 45 and sitting just under both EMAs.
Support: 0.69781, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69868 lower high breaks the lower-highs line and reopens the 0.69895 session high and the 0.70 handle
Loss of the 0.69781 rollover low, also the 50% of the London-NY leg, exposes the 0.69742 ny low
Failure at 0.69742 puts the 0.69665 london low back in play and unwinds the London-NY leg
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US 10y moves around 5.25–5.29% could materially shift this read
Post-breakout consolidation 0.6978–0.6987 beneath a 0.6990 day high.
London cleared the 0.6976 Asian high, and the leg ran to a 0.6990 day high early in the NY session before rejection near the 0.6985 cap flagged on the softer-USD backdrop. The pullback held the 0.6974 swing low at the 61.8% fib, and price is now compressing between the 0.6978 late-NY low and a 0.6987 lower high into a thin Asia open, with RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 0.69781, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close above the 0.6987 lower high and the 0.6990 day high reopens the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6978 late-NY low exposes the 0.6974 swing low and the 61.8% fib
Failure at 0.6974 shifts focus to the 0.6967 london base, the origin of the breakout leg
US 10y yield moves and FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Lower high under the session high; tight 0.6978–0.6987 range in thin post-NY trade.
A softer USD on easing US yields carried AUDUSD from the 0.6967 london low through the Asian range high to a 0.6990 session high at the NY open, where it was rejected back to the 0.6974 NY low. A 0.6987 lower high and thin early-Asia trade have since pinned price in 0.6978–0.6987, between the 23.6% and 38.2% fib of the London-NY leg.
Support: 0.69781, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 late low exposes the 0.6974 NY low, then the 0.6967 london low
Close above the 0.6987 lower high and 0.6990 session high breaks the lower highs line and opens the 0.7000 round number
US 10y around 5.25–5.29% remains the driver into Asia; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major USD risk
Lower high under the session high, compressing above the ny swing low.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.6976, and NY extended the rally to a 0.6990 session high on the softer USD. Price was rejected there and printed a lower high at 0.6987, near the 0.6985 cap flagged in the macro read. The pair is now compressing 0.6978–0.6987 into a thin Asia open, holding around the 50% fib of the London–NY rally, with RSI(14) neutral at 47.
Support: 0.69781, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6987 lower high and the 0.6990 session high breaks the descending resistance line
Loss of the 0.6978 rollover low exposes the 0.6974 ny swing low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6972
Asia session reaction to the AiG Industry Index could set the early range
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
London breakout above Asian range, lower highs since the 0.6990 day high.
AUD/USD broke out of the Asian range during London. On the softer USD and pullback in yields it printed a 0.6990 day high early in NY, then was rejected short of the 0.70 round number. NY delivered a lower high at 0.6987, and the new Asia session is probing 0.6980 at the 38.2% fib of the Asian-low-to-day-high leg, with RSI(14) near 39.
Support: 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6974 ny low (near the 50% fib) breaks the post-breakout higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6967 london base
Close above the 0.6987 lower high and the lower highs trendline reopens the 0.6990 day high and the 0.70 round number
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC is a minor event risk for early Asia trade
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD and yields
21:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, fading from day high · RSI 38 · price 0.69786
HH/HL day; late-NY range 0.6980–0.6987 now slipping.
London swept the Asian low and printed a 0.6961 london low, then reversed, and NY extended to a 0.6990 day high on the softer USD and yield pullback before rejection near the 0.6985 cap. Late NY held a tight range under a 0.6987 lower high, and the early Asia session is slipping below it onto the 38.2% fib at 0.6979, RSI(14) ~38.
Support: 0.69764, 0.69742, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.6976 asia high and 0.6974 swing low (near the 50% fib) shifts the read to a deeper retracement toward the 0.6961 london low
M15 close back above the 0.6987 lower high reopens the 0.6990 day high and the 0.70 psych handle
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC lands in a thin Asia open and could test the current range
US 10y back toward 5.29% ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes would pressure the rally off the london low
Asian range broken higher; lower highs below 0.6990, compressing above 0.6980.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.6976 and the pair set a day high at 0.69895 into the London-NY transition, then met rejection under the 0.6985–0.70 cap as the USD eased. Since then a lower high at 0.69868 and a swing low at 0.6980 have squeezed price into a 6–7 pip band through NY close, with RSI(14) near 41 and price just under EMA20.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6980 swing low exposes the 0.69742 NY low, near the 50% fib of the London-NY rally
Close above the 0.69868 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.69895 day high back in play
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC lands in thin Asia-open liquidity and could break the compression
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major USD test for this read
21:06 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 52 · price 0.69831
Higher lows since Asia low; late-NY compression under lower highs.
London cleared the Asian range high at 0.6976. The 11:15 UTC breakout came on a softer USD and yields, and ran to a 0.6990 day high before NY pulled back to a 0.6974 swing low near the 50% fib. Late NY has compressed between the 0.6980 range floor and the 0.6987 range top, with lower highs under the day high and RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 0.69805, 0.69742, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 day high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.70 round number in play
Break of the 0.6980 range floor exposes the 0.6974 swing low at the 50% fib
Loss of the 0.6961 asian low would unwind the day's breakout structure
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC lands in thin early-Asia liquidity; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the larger USD risk
20:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling in late NY · RSI 47 · price 0.69814
London broke above Asian range; late NY lower high inside a 0.6980-0.6987 band.
London cleared the Asian range (0.6961–0.6976). NY extended the move to a session high at 0.6990 as the USD eased with US yields. Late NY has compressed into a 0.6980–0.6987 band under a lower high at 0.6987, with RSI(14) neutral near 47 and EMA20 capping the last bars.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6980 late NY low opens the 0.6974 NY swing low, near the 61.8% of the London-NY leg
Close above the 0.6987 lower high and the 0.6990 session high puts the 0.7000 round number in play
Loss of the 0.6967 London low would unwind the Asian range break
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could jolt thin early-Asia liquidity
Higher lows since Asia, now a tight 0.6980–0.6987 band below the day high.
London broke above the Asian range (asian low 0.6961, high 0.6976). NY then extended to a 0.6990 day high on a softer USD as yields eased, and the pullback held the 0.6974 ny low near the 50% fib. Since 15:30 UTC price has compressed into a 0.6980 range low / 0.6987 range high band around the 0.6985 cap, with RSI(14) neutral near 52 and ATR(14) down to ~2 pips.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6974, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 day high clears the 0.6985 cap and opens the 0.7000 psych handle
Failure to hold the 0.6980 range low reopens the 0.6974 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6972
Asia session open plus the AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could break the current compression
London cleared the Asian high at 0.6976, and the rally ran to a 0.6990 session high before NY held a higher low at 0.6974 (NY low), near the 50% retrace of the Asia-NY leg. A late-NY lower high at 0.6987 has price coiling around 0.6983 just under the 0.6985–0.6990 cap as a softer USD and easing yields support AUD; RSI(14) is neutral at 54 and ATR is a thin 2.3 pips.
Support: 0.69813, 0.69764, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high clears the lower high trendline and opens the 0.7000 round number
Break of the 0.6981 late low exposes the 0.6976 Asian high and 0.6974 NY low
Loss of 0.6974 ends the higher-low chain and the 50% hold of the Asia-NY leg
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC and any US 10y move back above 5.29% could shift this read
20:03 UTC
Intraday uptrend from London low, stalling near cap · RSI 50 · price 0.69826
Post-NY consolidation 0.6980–0.6987 below a rejected session high.
London lifted AUDUSD off 0.69613 on a softer USD and easing yields, but the 13:00 UTC push to the 0.69895 session high was rejected right at the 0.6985 cap. The NY low at 0.69742 held between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London rally, and late trade is compressing under a lower high at 0.69868 with RSI(14) flat near 50.
Support: 0.69795, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69895 session high clears the 0.6985 cap and opens the 0.70 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.69795 swing low exposes the ny low at 0.69742 and the 61.8% fib near 0.6972; below that the 0.69665 london base comes into view
Repeated stalls at the 0.69868 lower high keep the consolidation read intact
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC during the Asia session; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD-driven read
19:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling below day high · RSI 47 · price 0.69822
Higher low at 0.6974, lower highs capping under 0.6990 in late NY.
A softer USD on easing yields lifted AUDUSD off the 0.6961 day low through the Asian range high into a 0.69895 day high early in NY, near the 0.6985 cap flagged in the news digest. The 0.6974 ny swing low held at roughly a 54% retrace, but late NY is drifting inside a 0.6980–0.6987 band, with a lower high at 0.6987 and price slipping under EMA20.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6974, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6987, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6980 range low exposes the 0.6974 ny swing low and the fib mid-zone
Close above the 0.69895 day high breaks the lower-high line and puts the 0.7000 round number in play
Failure to hold 0.6974 shifts the read toward a deeper retrace toward the 0.6961 day low
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC, around the NY close and thin liquidity, could move this read
Higher lows since Asia; late-NY consolidation below session high.
London broke the Asian range high and early NY extended to a 0.69895 session high as the USD eased with yields. The pullback held the 0.69742 swing low between the 50% and 61.8% fib of the London-NY leg, above the rising trendline. Late NY is now compressing between the 0.69795 range low and the 0.69868 range top, right at the 0.6985 cap area, with RSI(14) neutral near 55.
Support: 0.69795, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.69868, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69895 session high opens the 0.70 round number
Break below the 0.69795 range low exposes the 0.69742 swing low and the rising trendline
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY tape
US 10y yield moves around 5.25-5.29% remain the main AUD driver
Higher low at 0.69742, tight late-NY consolidation on rising lows.
AUD lifted off the 0.69665 London low to a 0.69895 NY session high as the USD eased with yields, and the pullback held a higher low at 0.69742 near the 61.8% of that rally fib. Late NY, price is compressing 0.6980–0.6986 on rising lows above the 0.69795 swing low, pressing the 0.6985 cap area just under the session high.
Support: 0.69795, 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69895 session high opens the 0.70 round number
Break below the 0.69795 swing low undercuts the rising lows and puts the 0.69742 higher low in play
Loss of 0.69742 turns the read back toward the 0.69665 London low
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could jolt the thin post-NY tape
Higher lows since Asia; tight 0.6980–0.6986 range under 0.6990 high.
London broke above the Asian range high near 0.6976 and NY extended to a 0.6990 session high as the USD eased with yields. The NY pullback held 0.6974 (pullback low) on rising support from the Asia low. Late NY price is compressing between the 0.6980 range low and 0.6986 range top, right at the 0.6985 cap flagged in the digest.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.70 round number
Loss of the 0.6980 range low and rising support exposes the 0.6974 pullback low
Break below the 0.6967 london low ends the higher-low sequence
AiG Industry Index 22:00 UTC tonight; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
Higher lows since the 0.6974 swing low, capped at 0.6986.
London broke above the 0.6961–0.6976 Asian range, and the move ran to a 0.6990 session high near NY open as the USD eased with yields. The pullback held a 0.6974 swing low just above the Asian high, and higher lows since have price pressing the 0.6985–0.6986 cap late in the NY session, RSI(14) near 63 with no extreme.
Support: 0.6980, 0.69742
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
Break of the 0.6980 higher low breaks the rising trendline and turns the read to range
Loss of the 0.6974 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the Asian range top back in play
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could shift this read in a thin late-session tape
Higher lows since London; tight 0.6980–0.6985 base under 0.6990.
London cleared the 0.6976 Asian range high and NY extended to a 0.6990 session high as the USD eased with yields. The pullback held the 0.6974 swing low near the 61.8% retrace of the 0.6967 london low leg, and price is now compressing on a 0.6980 range base just under the high in late NY hours.
Support: 0.6980, 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.70 psych handle
Loss of the 0.6980 range base exposes the 0.6974 swing low
Break below the 0.6974 swing low ends the higher-low sequence and puts the 0.6967 london low back in play
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC and FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could shift the USD-driven read
Asian range break higher, lower high under session top, tight consolidation.
London swept the Asian low at 0.6961, then broke the Asian range high as the USD eased with yields. The london rally topped at a 0.6990 session high early in NY, and a rejection there left a lower high at 0.6985. After London close, price is coiling in a 0.6980–0.6985 band above the range floor, still holding the rising lows line, with RSI(14) neutral at 54.
Support: 0.69795, 0.69742, 0.69667
Resistance: 0.69852, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high puts the 0.70 round number in play
Break of the 0.6980 range floor and the rising lows line exposes the 0.6974 swing low
Loss of the 0.6967 pullback low unwinds most of the london rally
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could jolt the thin Asia-open tape
Higher lows from Asia, lower high below session high.
London broke above the 0.6961–0.6976 Asian range and NY extended to a 0.69895 session high on a softer USD and easing yields, before rejection near the 0.6985–0.6990 cap. Late NY is coiling around EMA20 at 0.6981, with a lower high at 0.69852 against a rising higher-low trendline from 0.69665 and the 0.69742 swing low.
Support: 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69852, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close above the 0.69852 lower high puts the 0.69895 session high and the 0.7000 round number back in play
Break of the higher-low trendline and the 0.69742 swing low shifts the read to a deeper pullback toward 0.69665
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC could jolt thin post-NY liquidity
ATR(14) near 3.6 pips: price is compressing into late NY
Higher lows since London; lower high at 0.6985 under the 0.6990 session high.
London broke above the Asian range top at 0.6976 and NY extended to a 0.6990 session high as USD eased with yields, then turned lower. The pullback held a 0.6974 swing low near the old range top and the 61.8% of the session rally fib, and late NY is coiling under a 0.6985 lower high, which sits at the digest's cap.
Support: 0.6974, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6985, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6974 swing low breaks the higher lows line and exposes the 0.6967 london low
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could shift USD and yields and change this read
Asian range broken higher; higher low at 0.6974, lower high at 0.6985.
Late London broke the 0.6961–0.6976 Asian range higher, with post-NFP USD softness behind the move, and early NY briefly cleared the 0.6985 cap to a 0.69895 session high before fading. The retracement of the London leg held the 0.69742 swing low just under the Asian high, extending a rising-lows line, and price is now compressing after London close beneath a 0.69852 lower high with RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.69764, 0.69742, 0.69667
Resistance: 0.69852, 0.69895
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.69852 lower high puts the 0.69895 session high and 0.7000 back in play
Failure to hold the 0.69742 swing low and the rising-lows line returns price inside the Asian range, exposing the 0.69667 london low
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC is low impact; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the next major risk for this read
Higher lows above Asian range; retesting 0.6985 cap.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.6976, and NY extended to a 0.6990 session high before a rejection. The pullback held a 0.6974 swing low near the 61.8% of the NY rally fib, above the rising trendline from the 0.6967 London low. Price is back testing the 0.6985 cap that the AUD digest flags, helped by post-NFP USD softness; RSI(14) is neutral at 56.
Support: 0.69742, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69852, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
Repeated rejection at the 0.6985 cap keeps price inside a 0.6974–0.6990 band
Break of the 0.6974 swing low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6967 London low
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC is low impact; FOMC minutes fall outside the next few hours
Higher-low sequence above Asian range, testing session high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.6976 and NY extended to a 0.6990 session high. The pullback held a swing low at 0.6974, a retest of the Asian high near the 61.8% retracement of the leg off the 0.6967 London low. Price is back at 0.6984 into the late London-NY overlap, pressing the 0.6985 cap with RSI(14) at 58 as post-NFP USD softness lingers.
Support: 0.69764, 0.69742, 0.69667
Resistance: 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
Break below the 0.6974 swing low ends the rising lows sequence and puts the 0.6967 London low back in play
Slip back under the Asian high at 0.6976 would turn the breakout into a false break
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC; FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
15:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 52 · price 0.69803
Asian range broken higher in London, NY retraced to mid-fib, lower high at 0.6983.
London cleared the Asian range high near 0.6976 on a softer USD after the weak NFP. Early NY pushed to a 0.6990 session high through the 0.6985 cap, then retraced to the 0.6974 NY low, about 50% of the fib of the session rally. Price now sits back near 0.6980 under a 0.6983 lower high, with RSI(14) neutral around 52.
Support: 0.6974, 0.6966
Resistance: 0.6983, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6983 lower high, then the 0.6990 session high, opens the 0.7000 psych level
Break of the 0.6974 ny low and the 61.8% fib near 0.6972 puts the 0.6966 london low back in play and negates the range-break retest
AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC is low impact, but thin post-NY liquidity can exaggerate moves
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC are the next USD catalyst that could shift this read
15:05 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back · RSI 49 · price 0.69776
London HH/HL off the Asian low; NY prints lower highs from the 0.6990 high while 0.6974 holds.
London broke the Asian range high near 0.6976, and the first hour of NY ran to a 0.6990 session high, briefly clearing the 0.6985 cap on post-NFP USD softness before rejection. The pullback prints lower highs but holds the 0.6974 NY low, between the 50% and 61.8% of the fib 0.6961-0.6990 leg and above the rising line from the Asian low. RSI(14) is neutral at 49 and price sits on EMA20.
Support: 0.69742, 0.69665, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69823, 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Loss of the 0.6974 ny low breaks the pullback structure and exposes the rising line near 0.6971, then the 0.6966 swing low
A break of the 0.6961 asian low would unwind the whole London-NY advance
An M15 close above the 0.6982 lower high negates the NY lower-high sequence, with the 0.6990 session high and 0.7000 round number above
FOMC Minutes (Wed 18:00 UTC) is the next major USD risk; AiG Industry Index at 22:00 UTC is a lighter AUD print
14:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 46 · price 0.69767
Lower high and lower low since the 13:00 UTC session high, still above the rising lows from London.
London cleared the Asian high and NY pushed to a session high at 0.69895, helped by softer USD and easing yields, but price was rejected above the 0.6985 cap. A lower high at 0.69823 and a pullback low at 0.69746 have pulled price back under the London high at 0.69786. It is now retesting the 50% fib of the 0.69613–0.69895 leg, and the rising lows line from the London base remains intact.
Support: 0.69746, 0.69725, 0.69667
Resistance: 0.69786, 0.69823, 0.69895
What it said to watch
Close back above the 0.69786 london high and the 0.69823 lower high would reopen the session high at 0.69895
Break of the 0.69746 pullback low exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.69725 and the rising lows line
Loss of the 0.69667 london pivot would undo the London-NY breakout structure
Bowman speaking now (14:45 UTC) can extend intraday USD swings; AiG Industry Index due 22:00 UTC
False break above 0.6985 cap, pullback to 61.8% of breakout leg.
Early NY spiked through the 0.6985 cap to a 0.6990 session high. The move was rejected and price has slid back to the 61.8% fib of the London-NY breakout leg near 0.6975. Lower highs at 0.6982 have formed since 13:00 UTC, with price sitting just under the Asian high and EMA20 and RSI(14) at 47.
Support: 0.69746, 0.69665, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69823, 0.69895
What it said to watch
Break of the 0.6975 swing low exposes the 0.6967 breakout low, with the 0.6961 Asian low below
M15 close above the 0.6982 lower high breaks the lower-highs trendline and puts the 0.6990 session high back in play
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the bigger USD risk
Higher lows since Asia; NY spike to 0.6990 faded, holding above Asian high.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.6976. The NY open pushed through the 0.6985 cap to a 0.6990 session high before slipping back to 0.6977, about a 56% fib retracement of the 0.6967–0.6990 leg. Yield-led USD easing is underpinning the move; RSI(14) is near 60 and price sits just above ema20.
Support: 0.6977, 0.6967
Resistance: 0.6985, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC, early in the NY session, could shift the USD tone
M15 close back above the 0.6985 cap reopens the 0.6990 session high and the 0.7000 round number
Break below the 0.6977 asian high exposes the 0.6967 swing low and the rising lows line
14:04 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 0.69784
Higher lows since London open; NY rejection at 0.6990 now retesting London high.
London cleared the Asian range high and NY extended to a 0.6990 session high, with softer USD yields helping. Rejection there, short of the 0.7000 round number, pulled price back to retest the 0.6977 London high, sitting on EMA20 and the 50% retrace of the 0.6967 swing low to 0.6990 rally, with higher lows intact.
Support: 0.6977, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below 0.6977 london high turns the retest into a failed break and exposes the 0.6967 swing low
Loss of the 0.6967 swing low breaks the higher lows sequence; 0.6961 asian low is next
Close back above 0.6986 prior high reopens the 0.6990 session high and the 0.7000 round number
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift US yields and this read
13:47 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 58 · price 0.69792
London breakout above 0.6979, NY-open rejection at 0.6990, now retesting the breakout level.
Late-London buying broke the 0.6979 London high and ran to a 0.6990 session high, but the NY open rejected it right at the 0.6985–0.7000 cap flagged in the AUD digest after soft US payrolls. Price is now retesting 0.6978, which lines up with the breakout level and the 38.2% fib of the 0.6961–0.6990 leg. RSI(14) has cooled to ~58 and price is sitting on EMA20.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 london high negates the breakout and exposes the 0.6967 range low
Loss of the rising lows line near 0.6970 opens a run at the 0.6961 session low
Reclaim of the 0.6990 session high brings the 0.7000 psych level into play
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could move USD within the hour
13:32 UTC
Uptrend, extending into NY · RSI 72 · price 0.69862
HH/HL chain above Asian range, testing 0.6985–0.7000 cap.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.6976 and NY pushed the HH/HL chain to a 0.6990 session high as USD eased with yields, putting AUD into the 0.6985–0.7000 cap flagged in the digest. RSI(14) is near 72, with the steep rising trendline from the 0.6967 London low now being tested; the 0.6978 swing low lines up with the 50% fib of the London-NY leg.
Support: 0.6978, 0.69764, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69895, 0.7000
What it said to watch
A close above the 0.6990 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
A close below the rising trendline near 0.6986 points to a pullback into the fib zone
An M15 close below the 0.6978 swing low breaks the HL chain and the 50% fib
Losing the 0.6967 London low puts price back toward the Asian high at 0.6976 and the prior Asian range
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift the USD leg of this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday uptrend, extending into NY · RSI 74 · price 0.69875
HH/HL chain since London open; Asian range high broken.
The London-NY transition cleared the Asian range high near 0.6976 and the London high at 0.6978. Price printed a session high at 0.6990, pressing the 0.6985–0.7000 cap flagged in the AUD digest despite a firm USD. Rising lows at the 0.6961 asian low and the 0.6967 swing low underpin the London leg; RSI(14) near 74 is hot but not stretched.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6990, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6978 london high returns price to the prior range and stalls the breakout
A break of the 0.6967 swing low and the rising lows trendline ends the HH/HL chain
Rejection at the 0.6990 session high keeps the 0.6985–0.7000 cap intact; acceptance above the 0.7000 round number extends the move
Fed's Bowman at 14:45 UTC could shift USD tone and this read
HH/HL chain since London open; breakout above 0.6979 morning high retested and held.
London swept the asian low at 0.6961 and has since built higher lows. Late London cleared the 0.6979 morning high, topped at the 0.6986 session high near the digest's 0.6985 cap, and the pullback held the 0.6978 retest at the 38.2% of the breakout leg. AUD is holding firm against a firm USD going into the NY open.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6986 session high clears the 0.6985 cap and opens the 0.7000 round number
Close back below the 0.6978 retest negates the breakout and exposes the 0.6967 pullback low
Break of the higher-low trendline near 0.6969, then the 0.6961 asian low, ends the intraday uptrend structure
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift USD tone
Higher lows from Asian low; break of London high now being retested.
Late London lifted AUD through the 0.6979 London high as DXY eased off its highs. It tagged a 0.6986 session high, where it met rejection at the 0.6985 pivot, and the pullback is now retesting the former London high near 0.6978 with RSI(14) cooling to 64. The trendline from the 0.6961 Asian low through the 0.6967 range low still underpins the higher-low chain.
Support: 0.6978, 0.6967, 0.6961
Resistance: 0.6986, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6978 London high reopens the 0.6967 range low
Close above the 0.6986 session high opens the 0.7000 round number
Pullback deeper than 50% of the Asian low–session high fib (~0.6974) weakens the breakout
Break of the 0.6961 Asian low and trendline undoes the higher-low structure
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift the USD side
12:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, pulling back from session high · RSI 63 · price 0.69793
Higher lows from London low; Asian range high broken, retest in progress.
Late London cleared the 0.6976 Asian high and the 0.6979 London high, then met rejection at a 0.6986 session high near the 0.6985 pivot flagged in the AUD digest. Into the NY open, price is retesting the London high, which sits at the 38.2% level of the breakout leg fib. Higher lows from the 0.6961 day low remain intact along the rising lows line, and ATR(14) is about 4 pips.
Support: 0.69786, 0.69764, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69857, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6976 Asian high would turn the breakout into a false break
M15 close above the 0.6986 session high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6967 swing low and the rising lows line breaks the higher-low sequence
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could shift USD and this read
Higher highs and higher lows from the 0.6961 Asian low; London high broken.
AUDUSD broke the 0.6979 London high late in the London session and printed a 0.6986 session high, right at the 0.6985 pivot flagged in the digest, despite the firm USD backdrop. The 0.6961–0.6976 Asian range is left well behind, the 38.2% fib of the move sits on the Asian high, and RSI(14) near 64 is not stretched.
Support: 0.69786, 0.69764
Resistance: 0.69857, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6979 London high would turn the breakout into a false break
Close above the 0.6986 session high opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6976 Asian high (38.2% fib) would break the higher lows line from 0.6961
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift this read early in NY
Higher lows from Asian low, range break above London high.
AUD broke out of the 0.6961–0.6979 Asian/London range during the London-NY transition. The move cleared the 0.6979 London high and printed a 0.6984 session high, just under the 0.6985 pivot flagged in the macro digest. It held up despite a firm USD, in line with the risk-on AUD rebound, with RSI(14) near 65 and higher lows building from the 0.6961 Asian low through the 0.6967 swing low.
Support: 0.69786, 0.69665, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69843, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6979 london high would turn the breakout into a false break
Acceptance above the 0.6984 session high / 0.6985 pivot opens the 0.7000 round number
Loss of the 0.6967 swing low breaks the rising lows line, with the 0.6961 asian low next
50% fib of the Asian low to session high leg sits at 0.6973, the first retracement reference below the London high
ADP 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift USD tone during NY hours
Higher lows through London; Asian range and prior high cleared.
London broke the 0.6976 Asian high early, then a late-London leg cleared the 0.6979 prior high to a 0.6984 session high, just under the 0.6985 pivot. The London leg from the 0.6961 pre-London low holds a higher-low chain above the 0.6967 swing low; RSI(14) at 66 is firm, not stretched, with AUD lifted by risk appetite rather than local data.
Support: 0.69786, 0.69764, 0.69665
Resistance: 0.69841, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6984 session high and 0.6985 pivot opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Rejection at 0.6984 and a close back under the 0.6979 prior high would mark a false break
Loss of the rising trendline and the 0.6967 swing low breaks the higher-low chain
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) around NY open could shift this read
Higher highs and higher lows through London; Asian range broken to the upside.
London cleared the 0.6976 Asian high and the 0.6979 prior high in a 10-pip bar to a 0.6982 session high late in the session. Higher lows hold at 0.6961 and the 0.6967 swing low. Price now sits just under the 0.6985 pivot flagged in the AUD digest, with crowded AUD shorts adding squeeze fuel and RSI(14) near 63, not stretched.
Support: 0.69786, 0.69764, 0.69667
Resistance: 0.69824, 0.6985, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6985 pivot opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Slip back below the 0.6976 asian high would mark the breakout as a false break
Break of the 0.6967 swing low ends the higher-lows sequence
Holding the 50% London leg fib near 0.6972 on any pullback keeps the breakout structure intact
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC could shift USD into the NY open
London false break above the Asian high, now ranging 0.6967–0.6979.
London cleared the 0.6976 Asian high to a 0.6979 session high, then slipped back inside the Asian range. The pullback held the 0.6967 london low near the 61.8% fib of the London-open leg, a higher low above the 0.6961 Asian low. Price is now back at 0.6973 heading into NY with USD firm on record UST yields.
Support: 0.69667, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69786, 0.6985
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6976 asian high and 0.6979 session high reopens the 0.6985 pivot
Break of the 0.6967 london low and the rising trendline exposes the 0.6961 asian low
Loss of 0.6961 brings the 0.6950 monday low into view
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC, Williams 13:05 and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours could shift the read via USD yields
11:03 UTC
Intraday range, momentum faded after London high · RSI 45 · price 0.69675
London broke Asian high, rejected, now consolidating at 61.8% retrace.
London open lifted AUD/USD from the 0.69613 Asian low through the Asian high to a 0.69786 session high. The rally then met rejection, and price has since compressed in a 0.6967–0.6971 band around the 61.8% fib of that leg, just under EMA20 with RSI(14) near 45. AUD is holding on risk appetite despite a firm USD.
Support: 0.69667, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69786, 0.6985, 0.7000
What it said to watch
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC (Bowman 14:45) during NY hours could break the London consolidation
M15 close below the 0.69667 pullback low exposes the 0.69613 asian low; losing that reopens the 0.69495 prior low
Reclaim of the 0.69786 session high brings the 0.6985 pivot into view, with 0.7000 psych above
London false break above Asian high, now compressing in a tight mid-session range.
London cleared the Asian high at 0.69764, but the 0.69786 London high was rejected and price slipped back inside. It is now boxed between the 0.69667 range low and the 0.6972 range top, sitting between the 50% and 61.8% of the London leg fib and hugging flat EMAs, with firm USD on record-high yields capping the rebound.
Support: 0.69667, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.6972, 0.69786, 0.6985
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.69667 range low and 61.8% of the London leg fib exposes the 0.69613 Asian low
Loss of the Asian low reopens the 0.69495 swing low from yesterday's pre-ISM dip
Reclaim of the 0.6972 range top puts the 0.69786 London high back in play; 0.6985 is the digest's pivot above
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could break the range during NY hours
Range; London false break above Asian high, rejected.
London open pushed through the 0.6976 asian high to a 0.6979 session high, then was rejected back toward the 0.6967 pullback low. Price is pinned to flat EMA20/50 between the 50% and 61.8% levels of the London leg fib, RSI(14) at 50. AUD is still steady on risk appetite against a firm USD, and the 0.6961 asian low to 0.6976 asian high band still frames the session range.
Support: 0.6967, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69786, 0.6985
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.6976 asian high and the 0.6979 session high would negate the false-break read and put the 0.6985 pivot in play
A break of the 0.6967 pullback low exposes the 0.6961 asian low, with yesterday's 0.6950 prior low below
ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC, then Fed's Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 UTC, could shift USD into NY hours
False break above Asian range high, back inside 0.6962–0.6976.
London lifted from 0.6961 through the Asian high at 0.6976 to a session high of 0.6979, but sellers met the move and price slipped back inside the Asian range. It now sits at the 61.8% retracement of that London leg near 0.6968, with RSI(14) neutral around 52 and AUD steadying on risk appetite despite a firm USD.
Support: 0.69672, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69786, 0.6985
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6967 pullback low exposes the asian low at 0.6962, then the prior low at 0.6950
Reclaim of the asian high and a close above the 0.6979 session high reopens the 0.6985 pivot
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC fall early in NY hours and could shift this read; FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC
London false break above Asian high, back inside the range.
London open pushed through the Asian high at 0.6976 to a session high of 0.6979, but the break was rejected and price slipped back to the 61.8% fib of the 0.6961–0.6979 leg at 0.6968, now flat around EMA20 mid-London. AUD's two-day rebound is stalling below the 0.6985 pivot as USD holds firm near its highs ahead of NY Fed-speak.
Support: 0.69679, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69786, 0.6985
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6979 session high reopens the 0.6985 pivot
Loss of the 61.8% fib at 0.6968 exposes the Asian low at 0.6961, then the prior low at 0.6950
ADP 4-wk avg 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC could shift USD tone in the first hour of NY
Back inside Asian range after London false break above 0.69764.
London traded both sides of the Asian range, dipping to the london low at 0.69613 and then pushing to a london high at 0.69786 above the asia high. The break failed, and price has slipped back to the 61.8% fib of that move near 0.6968, sitting right on EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 54. AUD is steadying on risk appetite against a firm, yield-driven USD.
Support: 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69786
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the asia high at 0.69764 revives the London breakout; the london high at 0.69786 is the next cap
Loss of the 61.8% fib near 0.69679 exposes the london low at 0.69613, then the prior low at 0.69495 from yesterday's London session
US ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift the read into the NY session
Asian range 0.6961–0.6976 intact after a London false break above.
Price swept the Asian low at 0.6961 just before London open, then the London leg pushed through the Asian high to a 0.6979 session high before rejecting back inside the range. Price now sits between the 50% and 61.8% retrace of that London leg near 0.6968–0.6970, just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) near 53, as a firm USD on 5.3% yields caps the AUD rebound below the 0.6985 pivot.
Support: 0.6968, 0.6961, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6979, 0.6985
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6968 pullback low exposes the Asian low at 0.6961
Break of the 0.6961 Asian low reopens the prior low at 0.6950 from yesterday's NY session
Close back above the 0.6979 session high negates the false break, with the 0.6985 pivot next
US ADP at 12:15 UTC, Williams at 13:05 and Bowman at 14:45 could shift this read into NY open
09:17 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 51 · price 0.69699
Asian range 0.6962–0.6976 intact after failed London break higher.
London opened off a 0.69613 swing low and pushed through the Asian high at 0.69764 to a 0.69786 session high. That break failed: price slipped back inside the Asian range to a 0.69685 pullback low, about 60% of the London leg, with the 0.6985 pivot untested. AUD is holding near 0.6970 on risk appetite despite a firm USD.
Support: 0.69685, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69786, 0.6985
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.69786 session high negates the false-break read and puts the 0.6985 pivot in play
Loss of the 0.69685 pullback low opens the 0.69613 swing low and the rising lows line off yesterday's 0.69495 prior low
US ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift this read during NY hours
London dipped under the Asian low to a 0.6961 london low, then rallied through the 0.6976 asian high to a 0.6979 london high. The 08:30 UTC bar rejected there and price has slipped back below the Asian high at 0.6974, with RSI(14) neutral at 57. AUD is still holding its two-day bounce on soft US payrolls despite a firm USD.
Support: 0.6970, 0.6961, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6976, 0.6979, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6979 london high reopens a test of the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 50% fib of the London leg near 0.6970 exposes the 0.6961 london low
Break below 0.6961 shifts focus to Monday's prior low at 0.6950 from the NY session
ADP 4-week avg at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
London swept the Asian low, then broke the Asian high.
London open dipped below the Asian low to a London low at 0.6961. It then reversed in a clean London leg through the 0.6976 Asian high to a session high at 0.6979, RSI(14) near 64 and not stretched. AUD is holding its bid on Bullock's three-hikes remark and Friday's soft US payrolls, with the 0.70 psych level 22 pips overhead.
Support: 0.69764, 0.69733, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69786, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6976 Asian high returns price to the Asian range and weakens the breakout read
Failure to hold 0.6973 prior high (yesterday's NY and rollover highs) would retrace most of the London leg
Rejection or break at the 0.6979 session high; above it the 0.7000 psych level is the next reference
Loss of the 0.6961 London low would negate the sweep-and-reverse structure
ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC during NY hours could shift the USD side of this read
08:32 UTC
Intraday up-leg, stalling at the session high · RSI 57 · price 0.69742
Pre-London dip under the Asian low, then a London push through the Asian high, now back just below it.
Ahead of the London open, AUDUSD dipped under the 0.6962 Asian low to a 0.6961 swing low. London then rallied through the 0.6976 Asian high to a 0.6978 session high, extending AUD's two-day bounce on the soft US payrolls. Price has slipped back under the Asian high and is holding the 0.6973 prior high, with RSI(14) near 57 and ATR around 4.4 pips.
Support: 0.6973, 0.69696, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69779, 0.7000
What it said to watch
An M15 close back above the 0.69764 Asian high reopens the 0.69779 session high and the 0.7000 psych level
A failure to hold the 0.6973 prior high exposes the 0.6970 fib 50% of the London leg, then the 0.69613 swing low
Repeated rejection at the session high would turn the London break of the Asian high into a false break
The US ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC) and Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
Rising highs off a flat base near 0.6961; Asian range top probed in London.
London open lifted AUDUSD out of the 0.6961–0.6976 Asian range to a 0.69779 london high, but the 08:00 UTC bar slipped back under the asian high at 0.69764, a rejection so far rather than acceptance. The rally off the 0.69495 swing low, driven by soft US payrolls despite firm US yields, still holds above ema20 near 0.6970 and the asian low at 0.69613. RSI(14) is neutral near 56.
Support: 0.6970, 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.69779, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.69764 asian high and 0.69779 london high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of ema20 near 0.6970 puts the 0.69613 asian low, near the 61.8% rally fib, back in play
Break below the 0.69495 swing low invalidates the rally structure in this window
US ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD into the NY session
London open broke above the Asian range high; first test of the breakout level.
The London leg lifted AUDUSD from the 0.69613 asian low through the 0.69764 asian high to a 0.69774 session high, with AUD holding up against a firm USD. The current bar is retesting the asian high from above. The prior high at 0.69733 and the fib 50% near 0.69694 sit below, and RSI(14) at 58 is not stretched.
Support: 0.69764, 0.69733, 0.69613
Resistance: 0.69774, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.69764 asian high turns the breakout into a false break inside the Asian range
Loss of the 0.69733 prior high reopens the 0.69613 asian low, with the rising trendline from 0.69495 just beneath
Hold above the 0.69774 session high keeps the 0.7000 psych level in view, the top of the UOB-flagged area
US ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) could shift USD tone during NY hours
07:47 UTC
Sideways, recovering within range · RSI 53 · price 0.69716
0.6961–0.6976 range since NY afternoon; failed break of Asian low.
A pre-London dip to the 0.6961 session low slipped under the Asian low and reversed. Early in the London session price is back at the 0.6973 prior high, about a 68% retrace of the Asian high-low move. The pair is still boxed below the 0.6976 Asian high as Bullock's hawkish RBA remarks offset a firm USD.
Support: 0.6961, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6976, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6976 Asian high breaks the range and opens the 0.7000 round number
Failure back below the 0.6961 session low reopens the 0.6950 NY low
Rejection at the 0.6973 prior high keeps the range intact
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could materially shift USD and this read
07:32 UTC
Range, mild lower highs since Asian peak · RSI 42 · price 0.69666
Asian range 0.6962–0.6976; pre-London false break of the low, London capped below 61.8%.
Price dipped to the 0.6961 session low just before London open, briefly breaking under the Asian low before reclaiming it. The first London push stalled at the 0.6971 london high, right at the 61.8% fib of the 0.6976 asian high to 0.6961 decline, and lower highs keep price under EMA20/50 near 0.6967 with RSI(14) around 42.
Support: 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69707, 0.69733, 0.69764
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6971 london high breaks the lower highs line and opens 0.6973 prior high / 0.6976 asian high
Failure to hold the 0.6961 session low turns the Asian-low false break into a range break toward the 0.6950 prior low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on October hike odds could shift USD and this read
07:17 UTC
Sideways, range-bound · RSI 45 · price 0.69682
0.6961–0.6976 range since NY; Asian low swept and reclaimed.
AUDUSD is holding a 0.6961–0.6976 range in thin trade. AUD remains supported by the soft payrolls bounce while a yield-driven USD caps it. Near London open, price dipped a pip under the Asian low at 0.6962 and closed back inside, holding the 50–61.8% zone of the rally fib off yesterday's 0.6950 prior low. Price now sits mid-range near 0.6968, flat against both EMAs, with sub-4 pip ATR.
Support: 0.6962, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6976
What it said to watch
M15 close back below the 0.6962 asian low turns the sweep into a range break and exposes the 0.6950 prior low
Acceptance above the 0.6973 double top and 0.6976 asian high (UOB's 0.6975 cap) breaks the range to the upside
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC), plus ADP 4-wk avg at 12:15 UTC, could reset the range during NY hours
07:03 UTC
Short-term downtrend inside Asian range · RSI 44 · price 0.69639
Lower highs off the Asian high, pressing the Asian low.
London is opening with AUDUSD at the base of the 0.6961–0.6976 Asian range after a steady run of lower highs from the 0.6976 asian high. The 06:45 dip to the 0.6961 asian low recovered toward 0.6965 but stalled at the falling trendline, with firm USD on 10y yields near 5.34% keeping the pair below the 0.6970 round number.
Support: 0.69613, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69673, 0.6970, 0.69764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6961 asian low exposes yesterday's 0.6950 ny low
M15 close above the falling trendline near 0.6967 breaks the lower-high chain and puts the 0.6970 round number and 0.6976 asian high back in play
ADP 4-wk avg (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) / Bowman (14:45) could shift USD tone during NY hours
06:47 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asian high · RSI 33 · price 0.69629
Lower-high sequence from 0.6976 pressing the Asian low into London open.
After rejection at the 0.6976 Asian high, the Asia session printed a run of lower highs. Price is now retesting the 0.6961 swing low, last session's NY pullback low, which sits on the 50% retrace of yesterday's 0.6950–0.6976 advance. RSI(14) is near 33 into London open, with USD firm as 10y UST yields hold near 5.34%.
Support: 0.6961, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6970, 0.6976
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6961 swing low opens the 61.8% retrace near 0.6960 and the 0.6950 prior low
Close back above the 0.6970 lower high breaks the lower-high trendline and puts the 0.6976 asian high back in focus
US ADP 12:15 UTC, Fed's Williams 13:05 UTC and Bowman 14:45 UTC could materially shift this read during NY hours
06:32 UTC
Intraday pullback, lower highs since Asia peak · RSI 37 · price 0.69633
Lower highs and lower lows inside the Asian range, now testing the range floor.
Late in the Asia session, AUDUSD has faded from the 0.6976 asia high in a run of lower highs along a descending trendline. Price is back at the 0.6962 asia low, which lines up with the 50% fib of the rally from the Monday ny low at 0.6950. A soft USD after the payrolls miss has not stopped this intraday pullback, and RSI(14) sits near 37 with ATR around 3 pips ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.69624, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69696, 0.69734, 0.69764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6962 asia low confirms a lower-low and exposes the 0.6961 swing low, then the 0.6950 ny low
M15 close above the 0.6970 lower high breaks the descending trendline and reopens 0.6973 prior high and the 0.6976 asia high
London open range expansion could break the Asian range either way
ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC) and Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift USD tone during the NY session
06:17 UTC
Sideways, drifting lower inside Asian range · RSI 42 · price 0.69641
Lower highs off the 0.69764 Asian high, price testing the Asian low.
Asia session topped at the 0.69764 Asian high and has printed lower highs since. The 06:00 UTC drop retested the Asian low at 0.69625, leaving price at the base of the 0.69625–0.69764 Asian range into London open with RSI(14) near 42. Soft Westpac sentiment and ANZ job ads failed to dent the pair overnight.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69696, 0.69733, 0.69764
What it said to watch
M15 close below the asian low at 0.69625 and the 0.69608 swing low breaks the Asian range lower, with yesterday's ny low at 0.69495 the next reference
Reclaim of the 0.69696 lower high, then the 0.69733 prior high, invalidates the lower-highs trendline; the asian high at 0.69764 caps the range
ADP 4-wk average (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) could shift USD tone into the NY session
06:03 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 0.69688
Asian range 0.6963–0.6976, lower highs off the top.
Late Asia session is chopping inside a 0.6963–0.6976 range after a rejection at the 0.6976 Asian high, printing lower highs since and sitting just under EMA20/50 near 0.6969, between the 50–61.8% of the Asian leg on the range fib. The post-NFP soft-USD tone has kept dips shallow, with the 0.6965 swing low holding above the 0.6963 Asian low for a higher low.
Support: 0.69648, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 prior high and the 0.6976 Asian high opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Loss of the 0.6963 Asian low breaks the higher-low sequence and exposes the 0.6950 NY low
London open in ~1h is the usual test of the Asian range; Fed Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift the read
05:47 UTC
Sideways, fading from Asia high · RSI 46 · price 0.69675
Asian range 0.6963–0.6976, lower highs since the top.
Asia briefly cleared the 0.6973 prior high to print the 0.6976 Asia high. That false break faded into a run of lower highs, and price now sits at the 61.8% of the Asia swing near 0.6968, just under EMA20/50 with RSI(14) at 46 and ATR only 3 pips. The soft-USD tone after Friday's NFP miss has kept dips shallow so far, with the 0.6965 intraday low and 0.6963 Asia low holding into the run-up to London open.
Support: 0.69648, 0.69625, 0.69608
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 prior high negates the false break and the lower-highs read
Close above the 0.6976 asia high brings the 0.7000 psych level into view
Break of the 0.6965 intraday low and 0.6963 asia low exposes the 0.6961 ny low
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of the Asian range edges after a 3-pip ATR session
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD tone during NY hours
05:32 UTC
Range-bound, drifting lower off Asian high · RSI 45 · price 0.69665
Asian range 0.6962–0.6976, failed break above 0.6973, lower highs since.
The Asian session pushed past the 0.6973 prior highs to a 0.6976 Asian high and was rejected. Lower highs since have pulled price to a 0.6965 swing low, near the 38.2% fib of the NY rally off the 0.6950 NY low, with RSI(14) ~45 and price under both EMAs. The pair is still inside the 0.6962–0.6976 Asian range ahead of London open, with AUD holding up after the soft US NFP.
Support: 0.69648, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6962 asian low breaks the Asian range and exposes the 0.6950 ny low (61.8% fib near 0.6960)
Close back above the 0.6973 prior highs breaks the lower-highs line and puts the 0.6976 asian high and 0.7000 round number back in play
London open in ~90 min likely sets the session range; ADP (12:15 UTC), Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) are USD-side risk
Higher lows since NY; pullback from Asian session high.
Higher-low chain from the 0.6950 NY low is intact after the soft-NFP bid, but the 0.6976 Asian session high was rejected. Price has faded to 0.6969, testing the rising trendline and the 61.8% of the Asian leg, just under EMA20/EMA50 with RSI(14) neutral near 48, late in Asia ahead of the London open.
Support: 0.69657, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69733, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6966 swing low breaks the rising trendline and the higher-low chain, exposing the asian low at 0.6963 and then the ny low near 0.6950
Reclaim of the 0.6973 prior high reopens the 0.6976 session high; a break there puts the 0.70 round number in view
London open (07:00 UTC) in under 2h is likely to test one side of the Asian range
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) on hike odds could shift USD tone during NY hours
Asian higher lows, false break of prior high at 0.6973.
Late Asia session: price pushed through Monday's 0.6973 prior high to a 0.6976 asian high, then slipped back below it. It now sits at the 50% fib of the 0.6963–0.6976 Asian leg, with the rising trendline from the asian low through the 0.6966 swing low still intact. The post-NFP bid in AUD is being met by USD firmness on 5.3% 10y yields, keeping the pair below 0.7000 psych.
Support: 0.69657, 0.69625, 0.69608
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6976 asian high negates the false-break read and opens the path to 0.7000 psych
Rejection again at the 0.6973 prior high keeps the Asian range top in place
Break of the rising trendline and the 0.6966 swing low exposes the 0.6963 asian low, then the 0.6961 ny low
London open at 07:00 UTC is the first test of whether the Asian range holds
US ADP at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC could materially shift this read
Rising lows since 0.6950; failed hold above 0.6973 prior high.
Rising lows from yesterday's 0.6950 pre-ISM trough remain intact. The Asia session dipped to its 0.6963 asian low on the soft Westpac sentiment print, where demand stepped in. A push to a 0.6976 session high then slipped back under the 0.6973 prior high. Price is pinned near 0.6970 at the 50–61.8% retracement of the Asian leg and just above the rising-lows trendline, RSI(14) flat at 50.
Support: 0.6968, 0.69657, 0.69625
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6973 prior high reopens the 0.6976 session high and the 0.7000 round number
Break of the rising-lows trendline near 0.6968 and the 0.6966 swing low turns the micro-structure into a lower-low
Loss of the 0.6963 asian low exposes the whole Asian range to a downside break into London open
US ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) could shift the read, with Fed's Williams just after (13:05 UTC)
Higher lows since 0.6950; Asian range 0.6962–0.6976 after a failed push through the prior high.
Asia session pushed through the 0.6973 prior high to a 0.6976 session high but slipped back below it, leaving a false break; price sits mid-range at 0.6971 with RSI(14) near 52 and ATR(14) around 3 pips. Lows have stepped higher from Monday's 0.6950 ISM low, which printed as the ISM release hit. The 0.6966 swing low sits on the 38.2% fib of that rally, with the 0.6962 asian low below, and soft Westpac sentiment has not dented AUD.
Support: 0.69657, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69733, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above the 0.6976 session high negates the false break and brings the 0.7000 round number into view
Break of the 0.6966 swing low takes out the rising lows trendline and the 38.2% fib, exposing the 0.6962 asian low
Loss of the 0.6962 asian low opens the 61.8% fib near 0.6960, with the 0.6950 ism low the deeper reference
London open around 07:00 UTC is the first test of the 0.6962–0.6976 Asian range
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams (13:05) and Bowman (14:45) during NY hours could shift the read via USD yields
Higher lows in Asia; brief push above prior high faded.
The Asia session upswing cleared Monday's 0.6973 prior high to a 0.6976 session high, then slipped back to 0.6972 with RSI(14) near 58. Higher lows at the 0.6962 Asian low, set on the Westpac sentiment dip, and at the 0.6966 swing low keep the micro uptrend intact.
Support: 0.6966, 0.6962, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.6976, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6976 session high exposes the 0.7000 round number
Break below the 0.6966 swing low and the 0.6962 Asian low turns the Asia structure into a range, with the 0.6950 london low next
Holding below the 0.6973 prior high leaves the push to 0.6976 as a failed break
ADP and Fed's Williams/Bowman later in NY hours could materially shift USD tone
04:03 UTC
Uptrend, stalling at highs · RSI 60 · price 0.69723
Higher lows since Monday's NY low; Asia break of the 0.6973 prior high not yet held.
Asia session pushed through Monday's 0.6973 prior high to a 0.6976 session high, then slipped back to 0.6972. The pair held up despite the soft Westpac sentiment print, with post-NFP dollar softness still in play. Higher lows from the 0.6950 ny low through the 0.6963 asian low and the 0.6966 swing low remain intact, so the higher-low line still holds.
Support: 0.69657, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69733, 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 0.6976 session high confirms the break of the prior high, with 0.7000 psych next
Loss of the 0.6966 swing low breaks the higher-low line and exposes the 0.6963 asian low
Close below 0.6963 asian low turns the rejection into a lower-high sequence, with the 0.6950 ny low next
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) in the NY session could materially shift this read
03:47 UTC
Uptrend, higher lows through Asia · RSI 61 · price 0.69737
Break above 0.6973 double high, now retesting it.
Asia session cleared the 0.6973 prior high, capped twice in NY and after the rollover, and printed a session high at 0.6976. Price is now retesting 0.6973 from above, with higher lows at the 0.6963 asian low and the 0.6966 swing low. AUD is holding its post-NFP rebound despite a soft Westpac sentiment print.
Support: 0.6973, 0.69657, 0.69625
Resistance: 0.69764, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close back below 0.6973 prior high turns the breakout into a false break
Loss of the 0.6966 swing low breaks the higher-low chain toward the 0.6963 asian low
Clearance of the 0.6976 session high leaves 0.7000 psych as the next reference
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) could shift USD tone in NY hours
03:32 UTC
Intraday uptrend, stalling at range top · RSI 61 · price 0.69725
0.6962–0.6973 range since yesterday's NY rally; Asia higher low at 0.6966.
Mid-to-late Asia session, price is pressing the 0.6973 range top for a fourth time after printing a higher low at 0.6966 (asia hl). That cap has held since the NY rally off the 0.6950 ny low, which the digest ties to AUD firmness on the post-NFP USD dip. The 0.6962 asia low held between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of that ny rally fib, and RSI(14) at about 61 shows no extreme.
Support: 0.69657, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Break of the asia hl line and 0.6966 returns price to the 0.6962 asia low
Loss of 0.6962 exposes the 61.8% of the ny rally fib (~0.6959) and the 0.6950 ny low
ADP (12:15 UTC), Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) during NY hours could materially shift this read
03:17 UTC
Flat-to-higher, compressing under cap · RSI 59 · price 0.69725
Rising lows into flat 0.6973 range top.
Mid-Asia session, price is pressing the 0.6973 range top again after Monday's post-NFP USD dip lifted the pair. That cap has rejected four tests since NY hours, while rising lows from the 0.6950 london low through the 0.6962 asian low and the 0.6966 swing low compress price beneath it. RSI(14) is near 59 and ATR(14) about 3 pips, so the session range is tight.
Support: 0.69657, 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top breaks the Asian range high and leaves the 0.7000 psych level as the next reference
Break of the 0.6966 swing low and the 0.6962 asian low snaps the rising-lows line and reopens the 0.6950 london low
Fed's Williams and Bowman during NY hours, with US yields near 5.34%, could materially shift this read
03:03 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 47 · price 0.6968
Tight range 0.6962–0.6973 below day high.
Mid-Asia session, AUDUSD is compressing inside 0.6962–0.6973 after Monday's NY rebound from the 0.6950 NY low, which followed the post-NFP USD dip. The 0.6973 day high has rejected four tests since NY afternoon, while the Asian low at 0.6962 holds near the 38.2–50% retrace. RSI(14) is neutral at 47 and ATR(14) is about 3 pips; no setup is in play.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 day high breaks the range and puts the 0.7000 psych level in view
Loss of the 0.6962 Asian low exposes the 0.6950 NY low and the 50% retrace
A break of the Asian higher-low trendline signals the compression resolving lower
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Williams/Bowman later in the NY session could materially shift this read
02:47 UTC
Sideways after Monday's NY rally, Asia drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 0.69659
0.6961–0.6973 range with lower highs in Asia.
AUD's soft-NFP rally off the 0.6950 day low has stalled into a 0.6961–0.6973 range since NY afternoon. The range top at 0.6973 has rejected three times. Asia has printed a lower high at 0.6972 and is now pressing the 0.6962 Asian low with RSI(14) at 44, inside the first half of the NY rally fib.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69723, 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6962 asian low and the 0.6961 range floor breaks the range, exposing the 0.6950 day low
Close above the 0.6973 range top invalidates the lower-highs read and opens the 0.7000 round number
Failure to clear the 0.6972 lower high keeps the Asia drift intact
Fed's Williams and Bowman and the ADP data today, 12:15–14:45 UTC, could shift USD and this read
02:32 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, capped below 0.6974 · RSI 53 · price 0.69694
Range 0.6962–0.6973, three rejections at range top.
Monday's NY rally from the 0.6950 NY low came on the soft-payrolls USD backdrop. It has stalled at the 0.6973 range top, rejected three times since 15:30 UTC. Tuesday's Asia session is holding a 10-pip band inside 0.6962–0.6973, with the Asian low respected at 00:00 UTC and RSI(14) neutral near 53.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the path toward the 0.7000 psych level
Break below the 0.6962 Asian low exposes the 50–61.8% fib zone at 0.6961–0.6959, then the 0.6950 NY low
Fed's Williams and Bowman, plus ADP, later today (12:15–14:45 UTC) could shift this read via USD yields
02:17 UTC
Sideways after NY rally, flat momentum · RSI 51 · price 0.69684
Tight range 0.6961–0.6973, range top capping three times.
Mid-Asia session, AUDUSD is boxed in a 0.6961–0.6973 range since the NY afternoon, with the 0.6973 range top rejecting three times as AUD holds its soft-payrolls gains. The asian low at 0.6962 and ny swing low at 0.6961 sit near the 50% of the NY leg fib from the 0.6950 ny low. RSI(14) is at 51 and price is flat on EMA20, so no setup is in play.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top breaks the range and opens the path toward the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6962 asian low and 0.6961 ny swing low exposes the 0.6950 ny low and invalidates the NY leg fib hold
Fed's Williams and Bowman during NY hours could materially shift this read via USD yields
02:03 UTC
Sideways after a NY-session rally, upside momentum stalled · RSI 43 · price 0.69669
Tight range capped at 0.6973; higher lows still intact.
Since the NY session the range top at 0.6973 has rejected five probes, most recently at 0.69723 in Asia. RSI(14) sits near 43, but higher lows at the 0.69495 swing low, the 0.69608 NY low and the 0.69625 Asia low keep a rising lows line intact near 0.6965. AUD is holding firm against a broadly stronger USD on post-NFP short-covering, with ATR(14) around 3 pips in quiet Asia trade.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the path to 0.7000 psych
Break below the 0.69625 Asia low and the rising lows line, then the 0.69608 NY low, ends the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.69495 swing low
AUD decoupling from rising US yields; a reconnection could pressure the range
US ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman later Tuesday could shift the read once London and NY trade
01:47 UTC
Uptrend, stalling under range top · RSI 47 · price 0.69701
Higher lows beneath flat 0.6973 range top.
Early in the Asia session, price is back near 0.6970. The 0.6973 range top has capped three tests since the NY session, while the 0.69625 asian low held near the 38.2–50% fib of the 0.69495 swing low to 0.69734 leg. AUD is holding firm on Friday's soft US payrolls despite higher US yields, but RSI(14) sits mid-range and ATR is about 3 pips, so momentum is muted.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.69625 asian low breaks the higher-low chain and exposes the 0.69608 higher low, then the 0.69495 swing low
Rising trendline support from the 0.69495 swing low comes in near 0.6965; a break shifts the read to range
Later in the US day, ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman could reconnect AUD with rising US yields
0.6961–0.6973 range since NY afternoon, higher low in Asia.
Demand absorbed the dip to the ny low at 0.69495 after the soft US ISM services print. The rally then stalled at the 0.6973 range top three times, in NY, late NY and post-rollover. Early Asia printed a higher low at 0.69625 (asia low) versus the 0.69608 swing low, both holding near the 50% retrace of the NY rally fib, and price is back pressing the range top.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the 0.7000 psych level, where crowded AUD shorts add squeeze risk
Failure to hold the 0.69625 asia low breaks the higher low and exposes the 0.69608 swing low
A break of the higher-low trendline and the 61.8% of the NY rally fib (0.6959) exposes the 0.69495 ny low
US ADP and Fed's Williams later Tuesday could shift the USD leg of this range
0.6962–0.6973 range below a flat range top, Asian low holding.
Monday's NY-session rally from the 0.6950 ny low, helped by the Australian PMI beats and the soft US NFP backdrop, has stalled at a flat range top at 0.6973. That level has rejected price three times, most recently in the Asia session. The Asian low at 0.6962 held between the 38.2% and 50% retracements of the ny rally fib, and price is pinned to EMA20 with RSI(14) near 51 and ATR around 3 pips.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the path to the 0.7000 round number
Failure to hold the 0.6962 asian low (61.8% of the ny rally fib at 0.6959) exposes the 0.6950 ny low
ADP at 12:15 UTC and Fed's Williams at 13:05 UTC later Tuesday could break the Asian range
Early in the Asia session, AUD/USD is retesting the 0.6973 equal highs, the Monday NY high and the Asia high. Buyers defended the 0.6962 Asia low, a roughly 45% pullback of the ism rally from 0.6950 that followed the soft US ISM print. The higher lows since NY remain intact, and RSI(14) at about 58 is neutral.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 equal highs clears the session range top and opens the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6962 asia low breaks the higher lows chain and exposes the 0.6950 ism low
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and ADP (12:15 UTC) in the NY session are the next USD catalysts that could shift this read
Range 0.6961–0.6973 since mid-NY after HH/HL rally from 0.6932.
The soft NFP and AU PMI beats drove a rally leg from the 0.6932 Monday Asia low through London and NY. Price has ranged 0.6961–0.6973 since mid-NY, with three rejections at the 0.6973 range top. Early Asia session is holding above the 0.6962 Asian low near the rally leg's 23.6% retrace, sitting on a flat EMA50, RSI(14) neutral at 48.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 0.6973 range top opens the path to the 0.7000 psych level
Failure to hold the 0.6962 Asian low and the 0.6961 swing low shifts focus to the 0.6950 NY low and the 38.2% retrace of the rally leg near 0.6958
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) later Tuesday could materially shift USD tone and this range read
00:32 UTC
Range after NY rally, early Asia fading · RSI 38 · price 0.69638
Second rejection at 0.6973 prior high, holding above 0.6961 swing low.
Early Asia session has faded from the 0.6973 prior high, the second rejection there after the NY-session peak, and price is sitting at the 38.2% retrace of the NY rally fib near 0.6964. Range of 0.6961–0.6973 holds above the 0.6961 swing low, with ATR near 3 pips in thin trade after the soft US payrolls lifted AUD.
Support: 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
Close below the 0.6961 swing low completes a double-top read and exposes the 0.6950 ny low (61.8% NY rally fib at 0.6959 sits just above).
M15 close above the 0.6973 prior high breaks the cap and puts the 0.7000 psych level in focus.
ADP 4-week average (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams and Bowman later in the US session could shift USD tone.
Capped at 0.6973 day high, early Asia pulling back inside 0.6961–0.6973 range.
The 14:00 UTC ISM Services miss lifted AUDUSD off the 0.6950 NY low to the 0.6973 day high. That level has rejected price four times since, and early Asia has slipped back below the ema20 near 0.6968 to a fresh session low at 0.6963, roughly 41% into the fib of the NY leg with the 0.6961 swing low just beneath.
Support: 0.69625, 0.69608, 0.69495
Resistance: 0.6968, 0.69734, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6961 swing low breaks the post-NY range floor and exposes the 61.8% fib near 0.6959, then the 0.6950 NY low
Reclaim of the ema20 around 0.6968 returns focus to the 0.6973 day high; a close above it opens the psych 0.70 level
Session low at 0.6963 is the first test for early Asia; a hold keeps the 0.6961–0.6973 range intact
ADP (12:15 UTC) and Fed's Williams/Bowman later today could shift the USD side of this read
Triple top at 0.6973, early Asia testing the rollover low.
London broke above Monday's Asian range (0.6932–0.6956), and a NY dip to the 0.6950 ny low was bought as the soft-NFP backdrop kept AUD bid. Since then 0.6973 has capped three times, forming a triple top. Early Asia session is now sitting on the 0.6965 rollover low, with RSI(14) at 42 and price below both EMAs; the 0.6961 ny pullback low and the ny trendline sit just beneath.
Support: 0.6965, 0.6961, 0.6950
Resistance: 0.6973, 0.7000
What it said to watch
M15 close below the 0.6961 ny pullback low breaks the ny trendline and confirms the triple top, putting the 61.8% ny rally fib near 0.6959 and the 0.6950 ny low in play
Close above the 0.6973 triple top reopens the 0.7000 round number
Rollover low at 0.6965 holding through Asian range development keeps the 0.6965–0.6973 range intact
Fed's Williams (13:05 UTC) and Bowman (14:45 UTC) in NY session could shift USD tone via Oct hike pricing