AUD/USD AI Live Scan, 4-hour chart, Tuesday, 7 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
21:04 UTC
Downtrend, recovering off lows · RSI 53 · price 0.69317
Higher lows since 0.6867 base.
Price bottomed near 0.6867 mid-window and has carved a sequence of higher lows, reclaiming the 0.6900 psych level after the soft US NFP trimmed Fed hike bets. The recovery stalled at 0.6958 range resistance, with the pair now sitting mid-range around 0.6932 just under EMA20. ATR sits in a modest regime as price consolidates between the 0.6900 base and 0.6980 range top.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6867, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the range top break
Failure to hold 0.6900 exposes the 0.6867 swing low and 200-dma zone
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could reshape USD direction
21:04 UTC
Downtrend stabilising, base building · RSI 51 · price 0.69317
Recovery off multi-day base, higher lows since 0.6865.
Price rolled over from 0.7075 into a multi-day slide that bottomed near 0.6865, then carved a rounded base and recovered to 0.6959 as the soft US NFP print trimmed Fed hike bets and lifted AUD off three-month lows. Higher lows are building above 0.6900 but the latest push stalled below 0.6959, and ATR(14) compression points to a range between 0.6900 and 0.6980. Price sits just under EMA20 while holding above the rising EMA50.
Support: 0.6900, 0.68649, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6980, 0.7021
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the path back toward 0.7021
Loss of 0.6900 exposes the 0.6865 swing low then 0.6830
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC is the dominant near-term catalyst for USD flow
17:03 UTC
Downtrend, basing off lows · RSI 49 · price 0.6935
Higher lows since mid-June low, range-bound 0.6900-0.6980.
AUDUSD slid from 0.7088 into a mid-June low at 0.6865, then carved higher lows and recovered toward the 0.6960 swing high before easing back to 0.6935. Soft-NFP USD weakness lifted AUD off the base, but domestic disinflation keeps the topside capped near the 0.6960/0.6980 pivot. ATR compression and price pinned around EMA20 point to consolidation within the 0.6900-0.6980 band.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7000
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the path toward 0.7070
Failure to hold 0.6900 exposes the 0.6865 swing low / 200-dma
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could break the consolidation
Range base after multi-day decline, higher lows building.
Multi-day downtrend from the 0.7088 high bottomed at 0.6867 and has since carved higher lows, price now consolidating in a 0.6900–0.6960 band. AUD lifted off the lows on soft-NFP USD weakness but supply capped the recovery near 0.6960, in line with the flagged 0.6980 pivot. ATR(14) has compressed as the base builds; EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50 as price holds above both.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6900, 0.6870
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960 opens the path toward the 0.6980 topside pivot
Loss of 0.6900 exposes the 0.6870 200-dma zone and reasserts the downtrend
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD sold off from 0.706 to a 3-month low at 0.6865, then carved a rounded base and is grinding back up on a series of higher lows, now testing the 0.6959 range cap. The recovery follows a softer USD after the NFP miss, though cooler AU inflation keeps rallies corrective inside the 0.6865–0.6980 band. EMA20 has crossed above EMA50 as ATR(14) compresses, pointing to a coiled range rather than trend extension.
Support: 0.6934, 0.6900, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the path toward the 0.7070 cap
Failure to hold 0.6934 higher low risks a retest of the 0.6900 psych level and 0.6865 3-mo low
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD
13:03 UTC
Recovery within broader range · RSI 59 · price 0.69474
Higher-lows building off early-July base.
AUDUSD has clawed back from the early-July base near 0.6865, printing a sequence of higher-lows and pushing EMA20 back above EMA50. The recovery has stalled at the 0.6958 range high, coinciding with the 38.2% retrace of the 0.7088–0.6865 slide, keeping price inside the multi-week 0.6870–0.6980 band as softer AU inflation offsets a post-NFP soft USD. ATR(14) near 14 pips reflects a moderate, contained regime rather than trend expansion.
Support: 0.6921, 0.6883, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 range cap opens the path to 0.7070
Failure to hold 0.6865 range floor turns structure negative toward 0.6830
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
A multi-day downtrend from 0.7075 bottomed near the 0.6865 200-dma region and carved a rounded bottom around the 0.6885 base before recovering to the 0.6960 swing high. Price is now stalling into the 38.2% fib of the downswing near 0.6945-0.6980, with EMA20 having crossed above EMA50 as price reclaimed both. The bounce tracks a softer USD after the weak US NFP, but cooling Australian inflation keeps the recovery corrective.
Support: 0.6921, 0.6885, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7009
What it said to watch
H4 close above the 0.6980 38.2% fib gate opens the path toward the 0.7009 prior high
Failure to hold the 0.6921 swing low returns focus to the 0.6885 base and 0.6865 200-dma floor
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift USD and this read
Carving higher lows off 0.6865 base within a broad range.
The impulse decline from 0.7088 to the 0.6865 base found demand and price has recovered off three-month lows, now grinding higher lows toward the 0.6980 fibo gate. Soft US NFP weakened the USD and lifted AUD off the floor, while cooling Australian inflation caps the upside. Price sits back above EMA20 and EMA50 with a modest ATR regime and a recent high at 0.6960 as the near hurdle.
Support: 0.6885, 0.6865, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7070
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 fibo gate opens the path toward the 0.7070 range cap
Failure to hold the 0.6865 swing low confirms a lower low toward the 0.6830 200-dma
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this USD-driven read
Range/base after multi-day decline, higher lows building.
AUDUSD sold off through the first half of the window from 0.7070 to a swing low at 0.6867, then carved a rounded base and higher lows, now grinding near 0.6946 inside the 0.6870-0.6980 range flagged by the macro read as softer AU inflation unwinds hawkish-RBA bets. EMA20 has crossed back above EMA50 and price sits above both, while tight ATR(14) points to compression near the recent high. The 200-DMA support cluster around 0.6870 remains the structural line under the base.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6867
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.7013, 0.7070
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6960 recent high opens the path to 0.7013
Failure to hold 0.6930 base risks a retest of the 0.6867 swing low
Break below 0.6867 confirms a fresh lower low and revives the downtrend
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD flows
AUDUSD sold off from the 0.7088 high mid-window down to a 0.6865 base, then settled into a 0.6865-0.6980 range as softer Australian inflation unwound hawkish-RBA bets. Price twice held the 0.6865 range base and has recovered to a 0.6959 swing high on the fade of last week's weak US payrolls, now trading near range mid at 0.6946 with EMA20 and EMA50 turning up beneath. USD remains broadly firm into FOMC Minutes, capping the rebound short of the range top.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 range top invalidates the range read and opens 0.7070
Failure to hold the 0.6865 range base confirms a lower-low toward 0.6835
FOMC Minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via USD flows
Downtrend from the 0.7088 high bottomed near 0.6865 in the 200-DMA zone and price has carved a rounded base, grinding to higher lows and now probing 0.6960. The recovery follows the soft US NFP print that briefly lifted AUD, though the pair stays capped below the 0.6980 interim ceiling. ATR(14) has compressed hard through the base, consistent with a breakout building.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6865, 0.6830
Resistance: 0.6960, 0.6980, 0.7070
What it said to watch
Close above 0.6980 opens the path toward the 0.7070 range cap
Failure to hold 0.6865 confirms a lower low toward the 0.6830 200-DMA
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
AUDUSD sold off from the 0.7088 area through mid-window to a 0.6867 base at the 200-DMA, where demand stepped in and a rounded bottom formed. Price has since built higher lows and pushed back through 0.6940, the soft US NFP print helping spike it toward the 0.6959 recent high. Momentum has turned constructive above both EMAs, but the 0.6980 interim cap still marks the upper edge of the multi-week range.
Support: 0.6920, 0.6867
Resistance: 0.6959, 0.6980, 0.7070
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 interim cap opens the path toward the 0.7070 upper cap
Failure to hold 0.6920 range floor reopens the 0.6867 200-dma base
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read via the USD leg