Double-bottom base off 0.6865, higher lows building.
The multi-day slide from 0.7088 bottomed near 0.6865, printing a double bottom into late-June before demand stepped in and lifted price back toward the 0.6950 rejection high. AUD lacks a domestic catalyst — the bounce tracks USD's post-NFP softness — and price is now testing the ~61.8% retrace of the 0.7004-0.6865 leg. ATR remains moderate, with the recovery grinding rather than impulsive.
Support: 0.6930, 0.6910, 0.6866
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6950 opens the path to 0.6980 band top
Failure to hold 0.6910 reopens the 0.6866 double-bottom base
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The early-July slide from 0.7088 bottomed near 0.6865 and has since carved higher lows, with price now grinding into the 0.6958 rejection high. ATR(14) has compressed hard through the consolidation, a coiling that typically precedes a directional resolution. The recovery leans on USD's post-NFP softness rather than any domestic AU catalyst, per the macro read.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6958, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6980 opens the range top and prior supply
Failure to hold 0.6910 re-exposes the 0.6865 swing low
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift this read
The multi-week slide from the early-June high near 0.7088 bottomed around 0.6865 and price has since carved a rounded base, now grinding back toward 0.6950 — the 38.2% retracement of that decline and the two-week high. The bounce sits inside a 0.6865–0.6980 range and reads corrective within a still-negative structure, helped along by last week's soft US NFP; ATR(14) near 16 pips shows contained volatility as the recovery develops. Price holds above both EMA20 and EMA50 after the flattening at the lows.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6950 opens the path to the 0.6980 range top
Failure to hold 0.6910 exposes the 0.6865 range floor
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could reshape the USD-side of this read
AUDUSD sold off from early-month 0.708 into a 0.6865 floor, then carved a rounded base and is grinding back toward the 0.6950 38.2% fib hurdle. The recovery reads as USD-side, built on last week's soft NFP, rather than a genuine Aussie bid, keeping it corrective within a still-negative structure. ATR is moderate as price coils in the 0.6910–0.6950 upper range.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6950 opens the path to 0.6980 range top
Failure to hold 0.6910 exposes the 0.6865 range floor
FOMC minutes Wed 18:00 UTC could materially shift the USD-side read
Price rolled from 0.7088 down to a 0.6866 base before the 57K US NFP miss sparked a corrective pop to the 0.6943-0.6950 zone, which stalled at the 200-day/38.2% fib and faded back to 0.6934. Structure now shows shallow higher lows carving a consolidation just under 0.6950, with ATR(14) heavily compressed at ~15 pips. Price sits back above the EMA20/EMA50, but the repeated stall at 0.6950 keeps the recovery corrective.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6866, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6943, 0.6950, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6950 opens the path toward the 0.6980 range top
Loss of 0.6910 exposes the 0.6866 swing low
FOMC minutes and US ISM Services are the USD-side drivers that could resolve this range
AUDUSD carved a base near 0.6865 in mid-June, printing a double bottom before recovering to 0.6949; the NFP-miss pop faded and price is now consolidating in the low-0.69s. The 0.6950 area — coinciding with the 200-day SMA and 38.2% retrace of the 0.7088-0.6865 leg — has capped repeatedly, keeping the corrective label. ATR(14) has compressed as the range tightens between 0.6910 and 0.6950.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6870, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6950, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6950 opens the 0.6980 range top
Loss of 0.6910 exposes the 0.6870 base then 0.6835
FOMC minutes / US ISM could shift the USD leg and this read
09:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, base building · RSI 55 · price 0.69371
Consolidation, higher lows off the June base.
Price rolled from 0.708 into a 0.6865 swing low through mid-June, then carved a rounded base and has been consolidating inside the 0.6870-0.6980 band with a string of higher lows over the past week. The soft US payroll print spiked the pair toward 0.6950 before that gain was handed back, and an Australian trade deficit capped the recovery. ATR(14) at ~17 pips marks clear compression, with price now holding above the 20 and 50 EMAs.
Support: 0.6900, 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6949, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6949 opens the range top at 0.6980
Loss of 0.6865 swing low reopens the 0.6835 range break toward 0.6707
Fed minutes Wed 18:00 UTC and US ISM Services are the primary USD drivers into the next sessions
09:03 UTC
Downtrend stalling, base forming · RSI 57 · price 0.69371
Consolidation, higher lows off 0.6865.
Price sold off from the early-window 0.7088 high into a 0.6865 base, and has since carved higher lows to grind back toward the 0.6945 range top. The move sits inside the well-flagged 0.6870-0.6980 consolidation band, with the soft US NFP spike to ~0.6950 already retraced. ATR is compressed and EMA20/50 have flattened under price as the base builds.
Support: 0.6910, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6945 range top exposes the 0.6980 range cap
Loss of the 0.6910 higher-low line reopens the 0.6865 range low
US ISM Services and FOMC minutes this week are the primary USD driver
05:03 UTC
Downtrend flattening into base · RSI 51 · price 0.69258
Higher lows off 0.6866, capped at 0.6949.
Price sold off through the first half of the window from 0.707 to a 0.6866 swing low, then carved a rounded bottom with higher lows into a 0.6885-0.6949 range. The recovery to 0.6949 was USD-driven after the soft US NFP print but was rejected, and price is now fading back toward mid-range. ATR is compressed, consistent with the base-building read rather than a fresh trend leg.
Support: 0.6885, 0.6866, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6949, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6949 range top opens the path to 0.6980
Loss of 0.6885 range floor exposes the 0.6866 swing low and 0.6835 pivot
US ISM Services and FOMC minutes could reshape this USD-driven read
The mid-window slide from 0.708 bottomed at the 0.6865 range floor and price has since ground back up, twice basing near 0.6865 for a double-bottom look. USD softness after the weak US NFP print lifted the Aussie toward the 0.6945 range high before the move faded, leaving price coiling near range mid. ATR(14) is compressing and the pair is capped inside a 0.6865-0.6945 band into a light domestic calendar.
Support: 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6945 range high opens the path to the 0.6980 band top
Failure to hold the 0.6865 range floor exposes the 0.6835 swing pivot
US ISM Services and FOMC minutes are the near-term external drivers for this USD-led pair
Broad H4 downtrend from the early-window 0.7088 high stalled at a double bottom around 0.6865, and price has since staged a corrective bounce driven by USD weakness after Thursday's soft 57K NFP print. The recovery stalled into 0.6945-0.6950 and is now consolidating near 0.6933, back above the short EMAs. The move up retraced roughly 38% of the 0.7088-0.6865 decline before losing momentum.
Support: 0.6895, 0.6865
Resistance: 0.6945, 0.6980
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6945 needed to challenge the 0.6980 range top; failure keeps the bounce corrective
Loss of the 0.6865 double bottom opens the 0.6835 area
US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and FOMC minutes drive the USD leg and could shift this read
Broader H4 structure has been a downtrend since the early-June break from 0.7088, bottoming near 0.6865 before a rounded-bottom recovery. The soft US NFP miss (57K vs 110K) dragged the dollar lower and lifted AUD back toward the 0.6949 recent high, with price now holding above reclaimed EMA20/EMA50. Higher lows are building off the 0.6865 base but the move remains corrective within the larger decline.
Support: 0.6895, 0.6865, 0.6835
Resistance: 0.6949, 0.6980, 0.7088
What it said to watch
H4 close above 0.6949 then 0.6980 range top would extend the recovery
Loss of the 0.6865 swing low opens the 0.6835 shelf
US ISM Services (14:00 UTC) and Fed minutes Wed drive the USD leg and could reshape this read