USD/CAD AI Live Scan, 15-minute chart, Wednesday, 22 July 2026
Every read JAFX AI made on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart that day, newest first: trend, structure, the levels it marked and what it said to watch.
23:46 UTC
Downtrend stalled, flat · RSI 45 · price 1.40861
Consolidation near session lows.
USDCAD drifted lower through the London-NY hours from 1.4105 to a 1.4076 low, then coiled into a tight Asia-session range around 1.4085-1.4093 with volume thinning out. No follow-through either way; pair pinned at the 1.4100 pivot area with RSI(14) mid-range.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4093, 1.4100, 1.4105
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c +1.0% MoM) is the next catalyst and could break the range
M15 close above 1.4093 reopens the 1.4100/1.4105 zone
Break below 1.4076 extends the intraday lower-low sequence
23:46 UTC
Mild downtrend, now flat · RSI 47 · price 1.40861
Consolidation in lower range after leg down.
USDCAD leaked from 1.4107 to a session low of 1.40761 through London-NY hours, then stalled. Thin Asia session now ranging 1.4080-1.4094 with RSI(14) neutral near 47; no follow-through in either direction as price sits below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.40803, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.41013, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break the current range
M15 close above 1.40940 recent high reopens the 1.41000 psych pivot
Loss of 1.40761 session low confirms a lower-low
23:32 UTC
Downtrend flattening into range · RSI 52 · price 1.40859
Consolidating after intraday drift lower.
Thin Asia-session tape has USDCAD boxed 1.4076–1.4090 after London/NY drifted the pair off 1.4100, in line with the soft CAD CPI vs firm-oil standoff. Price bounced twice off the 1.4076 session low and is coiling just under 1.4090, RSI(14) neutral near 52.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4090 opens a retest of the 1.4100 pivot
Break of 1.4076 session low confirms a lower-low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break the range
USDCAD slid from 1.4109 through the London-NY session to a 1.4076 swing low, then chopped back to consolidate around 1.4086 in thin, low-volume Asian hours. RSI(14) sits neutral near 46 with no momentum extreme; pair stays pinned below the 1.4100 area flagged in the macro read.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40929, 1.40969
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40929 opens the path back toward 1.40969
Failure to hold 1.40780 confirms a lower low toward the 1.40761 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
23:17 UTC
Sideways, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.40871
Consolidation above session low.
USDCAD drifted from 1.4110 down to a 1.4076 session low through the London-NY leg, then settled into a tight low-volume Asian consolidation between 1.4081 and 1.4094. RSI(14) sits neutral near 53 and the pair remains pinned below the 1.4100 pivot flagged by the softer CAD CPI and firm oil backdrop.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.40939, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4094 opens the path back to the 1.4100 round pivot
Loss of 1.40761 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this range
NY hours drifted lower, sweeping a session low at 1.40761 before a modest recovery. Price now consolidating quietly around 1.4087 in thin Asian-session volume, capped by descending highs; USD/CAD remains pinned below the 1.4100 hurdle.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40803
Resistance: 1.40929, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40929 would break the descending highs
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through NY hours to a session low at 1.40761, then found buyers twice around 1.4076-1.4079 and recovered to consolidate near 1.4087 in thin Asian trade. Momentum has flattened; the pair sits pinned at the 1.4100 pivot the digest flags after soft Canadian CPI.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40803
Resistance: 1.40929, 1.41008, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
M15 close above 1.40929 opens the path back toward 1.41000
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break the consolidation
23:02 UTC
Downtrend, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.40873
Consolidating near session lows after NY decline.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session and is now basing around 1.4087 into thin early-Asia trade, holding above the session low at 1.4076. The pair remains pinned below the 1.4100 pivot, consistent with soft CAD CPI offset by firm oil.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40803
Resistance: 1.40893, 1.40955
What it said to watch
Break below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Close above 1.40955 negates the consolidation-lower read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through the session, tagging 1.40761 before basing; price now consolidating around 1.40890 near EMA20. Soft Canadian June CPI keeps the pair heavy but WTI near $86 is capping downside, leaving it pinned below the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.4079, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4093, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40760 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.41000 reopens the range top
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session to a session low of 1.40761, then bounced to consolidate near 1.4089 in thin Asian-hours trade. Downside follow-through has faded, leaving the pair pinned below the 1.4100 pivot as noted in the CAD digest.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4101
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40940 breaks the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.40761 opens the path lower
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session from 1.4110 to a session low at 1.40761, and is now basing between 1.40810 and 1.40940 into thin late-session flow. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 46 with the pair stalling at the 1.4100 pivot the digest flags, oil support keeping CAD losses in check.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.40940 / 1.41000 negates the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session into the Asian handover, bottoming at 1.40761 before basing between 1.4076 and 1.4092. Momentum has flattened with RSI back near mid-range and the pair pinned below the 1.4100 pivot flagged in the CAD read; thin late-session volume is muting the tape.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41008
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 opens the 1.41008 area
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this range
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session from 1.4110 to a 1.4076 swing low, then stabilised in a 1.4078-1.4088 base through thin late/Asia hours. CAD stays soft on the BoC pause and fresh US tariffs, but the pair keeps stalling below the 1.4100 pivot with no downside follow-through.
Support: 1.4079, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4101, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 swing low extends the down-leg
Reclaim of 1.4094 swing high shifts the read back toward the 1.4100 psych pivot
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next catalyst
USDCAD drifting lower through the late session, pinned below the 1.40945 prior high after fading from the 1.41013 session high; the pair is boxed near the 1.4076-1.4080 lows with thin end-of-day volume. RSI(14) mid-40s, no momentum extreme — consolidation stalling under the 1.4100 pivot the digest flags.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4100, 1.41013
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Recovery through 1.40945 negates the near-term downside grind
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
USDCAD drifted lower through the session, tracking softer USD demand as Iran diplomacy hopes eased the safe-haven bid, and now consolidates just above 1.4078 with RSI(14) mid-range near 44. Price sits below EMA20/50 with a chain of lower highs capping around 1.40895.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40895
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40895 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through London-NY, printing lower highs into a thin Asian session, price pinned just above the 1.4078 session low. RSI(14) mid-40s, price under EMA20/50 — no bounce yet, pair stalled at the 1.4100 pivot digest flagged.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40929, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40929 breaks the lower-high chain
Failure to hold 1.40761 opens the path lower
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this range
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session from 1.4108 toward the 1.40761 session low, price holding below EMA20/50 with soft CPI keeping CAD pressured but firm oil capping the decline near the 1.4100 pivot. Late-session volume is thin and price is basing around 1.40837 after the 1.40780 area held.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40876, 1.40929
What it said to watch
A close below 1.40761 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.40929 swing high invalidates the intraday downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could materially shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session toward 1.4080, holding below EMA20/50 with price pinned at the 1.4100 pivot the digest flags as key resistance. Late-session drift keeps the pair near session lows at 1.40761, RSI(14) mid-40s and no momentum extreme in play.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Break of 1.40761 session low confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 1.40900 swing high neutralises the drift
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session into the Asia handover on thin volume, now pressing the 1.40780 recent low with price capped by a chain of lower highs. Pair stays pinned below the 1.4100 pivot noted in the wider consolidation, RSI(14) hovering in the low 40s with no extreme.
Reclaim of 1.40940 swing high neutralises the lower-high chain
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
21:31 UTC
Downtrend, drifting into Asia · RSI 41 · price 1.40823
Lower highs, lower lows.
USDCAD ground lower through the NY-Asia transition, slipping off the 1.4100 pivot to press the session low at 1.40761 on thin late-session volume. Price is below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) near 41; the digest keeps CAD leaning firmer on oil support while USDCAD stalls under 1.4100.
Support: 1.4078, 1.40761, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.4087, 1.4092, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4092 swing high negates the intraday downtrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session and into a thin Asia open, printing a swing low at 1.40761 before basing near the session low around 1.40803. Descending highs cap the pair at 1.40929; RSI(14) mid-40s, no reversal signal, momentum still tilted down. Digest flags stalling near 1.4100 but M15 has been leaking, aided by firm oil.
Support: 1.40803, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40929, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim above 1.40929 breaks the descending-highs sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this read
Steady grind lower through late NY into Asia, USDCAD slipping from 1.4108 to 1.4082 with a chain of lower highs and price pinned below EMA20/50. The 1.40761 session low held on the earlier flush; pair now hovers just above it into thin late hours, echoing the digest's 1.4100 pivot stall.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4087, 1.40945, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 would break the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the read
USDCAD ground lower through NY into the late session, slipping off the 1.4100 hurdle after soft Canada CPI, and is now consolidating around 1.4085 just above the 1.40761 session low. RSI mid-range and price under both EMAs; no fresh momentum near this base.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4101
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 breaks the chain of lower highs
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Sequence of lower highs, holding above session low.
USDCAD grinding lower through the NY session, printing lower highs after the bounce off the 1.40761 session low stalled at 1.40945. Price now fading back toward the lows with RSI(14) mid-40s; pair pinned near the 1.4100 pivot flagged in the CAD read, tariff/oil dynamics keeping it heavy.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41013
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 breaks the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next macro catalyst for this pair
USDCAD ground lower through late NY, printing lower highs and now sitting just above the 1.40761 session low as firm oil keeps CAD supported. RSI(14) near 41, no oversold extreme; price capped by the descending high chain around 1.40895-1.40945.
Support: 1.40803, 1.40761, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.40895, 1.40945
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 breaks the lower-high chain
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session in a shallow descending channel, printing lower highs off 1.40930 while holding above the session low at 1.40761. Price is pinned near 1.4085 with RSI(14) mid-range; the pair remains capped below its EMAs, consistent with the CAD cushion from firm oil around 1.4100.
Support: 1.4081, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4093, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40930 breaks the descending sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifted to session lows near 1.4082 through late NY hours, extending a lower-high sequence off the 1.40945 session high — CAD steady despite firm USD as oil near $86 cushions the Loonie. RSI(14) sub-40, price pinned below EMA20/50 with thin, closing-hour volume.
Support: 1.40803, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40803 opens the 1.40761 swing low
M15 close back above 1.40945 breaks the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC (f/c +1.0% MoM) is the next catalyst
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session in a chain of lower highs, now pressing the session low at 1.40761 with RSI(14) near 38. Price stalled at 1.4100 earlier as firm WTI and eased USD demand capped the rebound; supply reappeared at 1.40945 on each attempt higher.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.40945 lower high neutralises the intraday downtrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape this read
USDCAD grinding lower through late NY hours, pressing session lows near 1.40810 after stalling at the 1.40945 lower high. Soft Canada CPI keeps CAD on the back foot but firm oil has capped USD/CAD below 1.4100; RSI(14) ~37, no oversold reading yet.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4089, 1.40945, 1.41008
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 lower high needed to ease downside pressure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifting lower through late NY, a steady chain of lower highs from 1.40945 pressing back toward the 1.40761 session low, with RSI(14) near 36. CAD stays supported by firm oil despite soft CPI, keeping the pair pinned below the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Break below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 negates the intraday downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs into a low-range base near session low.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session from 1.41047, printing a session low at 1.40761 with WTI strength cushioning the Loonie. Price is now basing in a tight 1.40810–1.40945 band below EMA20/50, RSI(14) neutral near 42, and the late tape is fading back toward the session low.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through NY hours off the 1.4110 range top, printing lower highs and basing around 1.4085 as firm oil kept the Loonie supported. RSI(14) mid-40s and ATR near 26 pips — quiet, late-session drift with no fresh impulse.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40761, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41013, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4080 exposes the 1.4076 swing low
Reclaim of 1.4095 would ease the lower-high pressure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break the range
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session, capped under the 1.40940 swing high after the 200-SMA(H4) 1.4100 pivot rejected earlier attempts. Price is grinding back toward the 1.40761 session low with RSI cooling into the low 40s and ATR thinning to ~26 pips into the late-NY lull.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100
What it said to watch
A close below 1.40761 session low opens further downside toward 1.40800 prior-low shelf
A reclaim of 1.40940 swing high would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could reprice this intraday read
Lower highs into 1.4076 base, corrective bounce stalling.
USDCAD sold off through the NY session to a 1.40761 low before a corrective bounce to 1.40945 faded, keeping the pair pinned below the 1.4100 pivot the CAD digest flags. Price is now drifting back toward the 1.4085 rising support with RSI(14) mid-range and ATR cooling to ~17 pips.
Support: 1.4085, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of 1.40945 needed to reopen the 1.4100 pivot
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
19:32 UTC
Downtrend, now flattening · RSI 43 · price 1.40872
Lower highs, base building near session low.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session to 1.40872, printing a chain of lower highs after tagging the session low at 1.40761; oil holding near $86 keeps CAD supported and the pair pinned below the 1.4100 pivot. Late tape has compressed into a tight 1.4085–1.4094 range with ATR cooling, RSI mid-40s — no momentum in either direction.
Support: 1.4085, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40944, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower-low and reopens downside
Reclaim of 1.40944 and 1.4100 pivot would negate the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break the consolidation
Lower highs into a low base, consolidating above swing low.
USDCAD slid off the 1.4110 shelf through the London-NY session, printing a swing low at 1.40761 before a shallow bounce faded. Price is now consolidating a tight 1.4085-1.4093 band below EMA20/50, RSI(14) mid-40s with no extreme; the pair remains pinned under the 1.4100 handle noted in the CAD read.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low and reopens downside
Reclaim of 1.40945 puts the 1.4100 psych back in play
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
USDCAD drifted lower through the session, pinned under the 1.4100 area with firm oil cushioning CAD. Price swept a session low at 1.40761 during NY hours then recovered into a tight 1.40806-1.40945 base; RSI(14) mid-40s with momentum flat.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 breaks the intraday base
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this read
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session, printing lower highs and now hovering just above the 1.40761 session low with price below EMA20/50. RSI(14) around 40 as the sell-off loses pace; the pair stays pinned near the 1.4100 pivot with oil support capping downside follow-through.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.40944, 1.41047
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.40944 breaks the lower-high chain and reopens 1.41047
Break below 1.40761 confirms continuation toward 1.4080 psych area
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through NY, sweeping the session low at 1.40761 before a bounce, and is now consolidating in a 1.40806–1.40945 band. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI mid-range; no fresh impulse into the late-NY hours.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40806 confirms a lower-low and reopens the session low at 1.40761
Reclaim of 1.40945 range top would neutralise the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could materially shift this read
USDCAD leaked lower through the NY session, printing a 1.40761 swing low before a shallow bounce that faded back toward 1.40850. Price is capped under 1.40945 with RSI(14) mid-40s; consolidation just above session lows, no fresh momentum either way.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40945
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.40945 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow could shift this read
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session from London highs near 1.4110, tagging a session low of 1.40761 before basing around 1.4090 below both EMAs. The 1.4100 pivot capped the bounce and price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4084–1.4095 band with CAD supported by firm oil.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4084
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.41013, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 pivot negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.40761 session low confirms downside continuation
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could reset this range
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session, sweeping the session low at 1.40761 before recovering to 1.40944, then fading back toward the lows into the late-NY hours. Price is boxed under the 1.4100 pivot with RSI(14) in the mid-40s; no clean momentum in either direction.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40806
Resistance: 1.40944, 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower-low
Reclaim of 1.41000 pivot negates the intraday downtrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
18:31 UTC
Downtrend earlier, now consolidating · RSI 49 · price 1.4089
Range after selloff into session low.
NY session drifted lower, sweeping to a 1.4076 session low before buyers pulled it back to consolidate around 1.4089. Move fits the digest read of USDCAD pinned near 1.4100 with oil cushioning CAD; RSI(14) mid-range with no momentum edge either way.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4094 and 1.4100 reopens the upside
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Lower highs into a tight consolidation above the session low.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session, printing a 1.4076 swing low before buyers stepped in and pinned price in a tight 1.4084-1.4094 band into late NY. RSI(14) sits neutral near 46 with the pair boxed under the 1.4100 pivot, consistent with the CAD-soft-but-oil-cushioned digest read.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4101
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.4094/1.4101 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
18:17 UTC
Intraday downtrend, now flat · RSI 53 · price 1.4092
Consolidating below 1.4100 after London leg down.
USDCAD leaked lower through the London session to a 1.4076 low, then stabilised into NY afternoon and is pinned around 1.4090 below the 1.4100 pivot. RSI(14) back to neutral near 53; the pair lacks downside follow-through with WTI near $86 cushioning the CAD.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4084
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 opens path back toward 1.4110
Break below 1.4076 confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
18:16 UTC
Intraday down, recovering · RSI 53 · price 1.4092
Bounce off session low, capped under 1.4100.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session to a low of 1.4076, where buyers stepped in and dragged price back to 1.4092, now consolidating just under the 1.4100 psych pivot. Firm oil kept the Loonie supported while USD demand eased; volume has thinned into the late session with price coiling in a tight 1.4090-1.4095 band.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4084
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 opens the path to 1.4110
Failure to hold 1.4076 confirms a fresh session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
London-NY selloff drove USDCAD to a session low of 1.40761 before buyers recovered price into the 1.4090s; the pair stalls under the 1.4100 pivot (200-SMA H4) noted in context. RSI(14) sits mid-range near 53 as the NY afternoon coils in a tight 1.4076–1.4094 range with no directional follow-through.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 pivot opens the path back toward 1.4105
Loss of 1.4076 session low confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this range
18:02 UTC
Downtrend, now consolidating off lows · RSI 48 · price 1.40922
Session low held, ranging near lows.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session to a low of 1.40761 where buyers stepped in, and price has since consolidated 1.4085-1.4093 just below the 1.4100 psych level. Oil strength near $86 is cushioning CAD, keeping the pair pinned under the 1.4100 hurdle.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4100 psych opens the path to the 1.4111 range top
Break below 1.4076 session low confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD leaked from the 1.4110 Asian range down to a 1.40761 session low through the NY session as USD safe-haven demand eased on Iran-diplomacy hopes and firm oil cushioned CAD. Price has since recovered to ~1.4093, stalling into the mid-point of the down move with RSI back near 56.
Support: 1.40834, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.41008, 1.41047, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Close above the 1.41000 psych level reopens the 1.41047 prior high
Failure to hold 1.40834 swing low reopens the 1.40761 session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD carved a NY session low at 1.40761 then ground higher, reclaiming EMA20/50 and pressing back toward the 1.4100 200-SMA (H4) pivot. Loonie stayed soft on Monday's CPI miss and fresh US tariffs, but firm oil capped the drop, keeping the pair boxed just under 1.4100.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.40945, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 200-sma h4 pivot opens the path back to 1.4150
Loss of 1.40761 session low reopens the downside
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD sold off through the NY session to a session low at 1.4076 before dip-buyers lifted it back to 1.4091, capped under the 1.4100 (200-SMA H4) pivot noted in context. Firm WTI is cushioning CAD while the pair stays pinned at the pivot; RSI(14) has recovered to mid-range and ATR is muted near 4-5 pips.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 opens the path to 1.4110
Failure to hold 1.4085 reopens the 1.4076 session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape this read
NY session sold USDCAD from the 1.4106 shelf down to 1.4076, where buyers stepped in twice to carve a double bottom. Price has since recovered to 1.4091 and is consolidating just under the 1.4100 pivot with RSI(14) back near mid-range.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 clears the pivot and reopens 1.4110
Loss of 1.4076 confirms a lower-low and voids the double bottom
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this range
NY session sold USDCAD from the 1.4100 area down to a session low at 1.40761 through the London-NY window, before buyers stepped in and lifted it back toward 1.40940. Price now consolidates near 1.4090 on cooling RSI, pinned below the 1.4100 round level per the stalled rebound the CAD digest flags.
Support: 1.4084, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4101, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40940 opens a retest of the 1.4101 round level
Loss of 1.40840 swing low reopens the 1.40761 session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD leaked from 1.4110 through London into NY, bottoming at 1.4076 before grinding back toward the 1.4100 pivot; CAD found some cushion from firm oil and eased USD demand. RSI(14) has recovered to mid-range and price is now pressing the underside of the 1.4095–1.4100 supply.
Support: 1.4084, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4096, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41000 pivot reopens the upside toward 1.4115
Loss of 1.40761 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could shift the read
17:03 UTC
Intraday downtrend, base forming · RSI 55 · price 1.40924
Sold off to 1.4076, grinding higher lows since.
USDCAD faded from the 1.4110 session high through NY hours to a 1.4076 low, then carved higher lows back to 1.4092 as WTI-driven CAD support offset the USD bid. Recovery is capping near 1.4095; RSI(14) back to mid-range after cooling.
Support: 1.4081, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4095 opens the path back to 1.4110
Loss of 1.4081 reopens the 1.4076 session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this range
USDCAD faded from the 1.4110 Asian ceiling through the London-NY sessions, printing a session low at 1.40761 before basing in a tight 1.4082-1.4093 range. Soft Canadian CPI keeps the pair pinned at the 1.4100 pivot; RSI(14) has recovered to neutral off the lows.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4105
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41000 negates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
16:46 UTC
Recovering off session low, still capped sub-1.4100 · RSI 56 · price 1.40931
Double bottom near 1.4078, grinding higher within range.
USDCAD carved a double bottom around 1.4078 during NY hours and has climbed back to 1.40931, RSI recovering to the mid-50s. Pair remains pinned below the 1.4100 psych level after CAD's soft CPI kept dip-buyers active; oil near $86 continues to cap upside.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41047
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41000 psych opens the path back to 1.41047
Loss of 1.40761 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Session low bounce off 1.4076, higher lows forming.
USDCAD sold off through the NY session to a session low of 1.40761, where buyers stepped in twice around the 1.40810 demand area, lifting price back to 1.40931. Recovery is stalling below the 1.40955 swing high, keeping the pair pinned under the 1.4100 pivot.
Support: 1.4081, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.40955, 1.4101
What it said to watch
Close above 1.40955 opens the path back to the 1.41010 prior high
Failure to hold 1.40810 demand reopens the 1.40761 session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 49 · price 1.40903
Sold off to session low, retracing.
USDCAD leaked lower through the London-NY session from 1.41100 to a session low at 1.40761, with firm oil and easing USD demand pressuring the pair. Price has since recovered to 1.40903 near the 38.2% retracement of that down leg, reclaiming the EMA20 while capped below the 1.40950 EMA50.
Support: 1.4080, 1.40761
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4101, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.40950 (ema50) opens 1.41010 prior high
Failure to hold 1.40800 session low re-exposes the 1.40761 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
16:32 UTC
Downtrend, stalling near lows · RSI 49 · price 1.40903
Lower highs into session low, now consolidating.
USDCAD rejected the 1.4110 session high and sold through NY hours to a session low of 1.40761, keeping it pinned below the 1.4100 pivot flagged in the CAD read. Price has since consolidated in a tight 1.4085-1.4090 band, RSI(14) back to neutral near 49 after the decline.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40806
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 reopens the path to the 1.4110 session high
Break of 1.40761 session low confirms a fresh lower-low
Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst for this pair
USD/CAD sold off through the NY session to a session low of 1.40761, WTI-driven CAD support capping the rebound. Price now consolidates just above the 1.4080 psych level, holding above EMA20 but capped under the 1.4100 pivot; RSI(14) mid-range near 53 after retracing ~50% of the down-move.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4099, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above the 1.4099 range top / 1.4100 pivot would negate the intraday downtrend
Failure to hold 1.40761 session low confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
USDCAD slid off the 1.4100 h4 pivot through the London-NY transition, printing a session low at 1.40761 before basing in a tight 1.4084-1.4090 band. Move fits easing USD demand on Iran-diplomacy hopes and firm WTI cushioning CAD; RSI(14) recovered off oversold to mid-40s.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41047
What it said to watch
close below 1.40761 confirms a lower low
reclaim of 1.4100 h4 pivot invalidates the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session, sweeping the 1.40761 low before stabilising in a tight 1.4080-1.4090 band with RSI(14) hovering mid-40s. Soft Canadian CPI keeps the pair heavy but WTI near $86 has capped downside momentum near the lows.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4096, 1.4101, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40760 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.41000 negates the intraday downside read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this range
NY session drove USDCAD lower off the 1.4100 pivot in a chain of lower highs, sweeping the 1.40761 swing low before stabilising near 1.4085 with WTI capping upside. RSI(14) mid-40s, price pinned below EMA20/50 as the pair coils into late NY hours.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40806
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4094 recent high would break the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.40761 swing low confirms continuation lower
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice this read
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session from 1.4110 to a session low of 1.4076, with WTI strength capping the Loonie's decline. Buyers stepped in twice around 1.4080 and price is consolidating just above; RSI(14) mid-40s, no extreme.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4100 psych negates the downside drift
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the near-term catalyst
15:46 UTC
Downtrend, consolidating near lows · RSI 44 · price 1.4084
Lower highs into a base above session low.
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session from the Asia range top near 1.4110 to a session low of 1.4076, with WTI near $86 lending the Loonie support. Price is now consolidating 1.4080-1.4090 below EMA20/50, RSI(14) mid-40s.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4092 swing high would break the consolidation and challenge the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.4076 session low confirms downtrend continuation
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the near-term catalyst for this pair
Lower highs and lower lows, basing near session low.
USDCAD slid through the NY session from 1.4110 down to a 1.4076 session low, the pair capped near the 1.4100 pivot with WTI holding around $86 lending CAD support. Price is now consolidating tightly around 1.4084 after the drop, RSI(14) mid-range with momentum flat.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4092, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 extends the lower-low sequence
Reclaim of the 1.4100 pivot invalidates the downtrend read
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this read
NY session ground USDCAD lower off the 1.4100 pivot in a chain of lower highs, tagging a session low at 1.40761 before stabilising near 1.4084. RSI sits mid-40s with soft CAD data offset by WTI near $86, keeping the pair pinned under 1.4100.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.4100
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4100 pivot would negate the lower-high sequence
Break below 1.40761 session low extends the down leg
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the near-term catalyst
15:16 UTC
Downtrend, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 1.4083
Lower highs into session low.
NY session drifted lower off the 1.4100 pivot, printing a session low of 1.40761 before a shallow bounce back to 1.4083. Price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI(14) mid-40s; soft June CPI keeps the CAD backdrop offset only by WTI near $86.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4082
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Loss of 1.4076 confirms continuation of the session downtrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4110 area through the NY session, printing lower highs and tagging a 1.4076 session low before stabilising around 1.4083. WTI near $86 is keeping a lid on the pair around the 1.4100 pivot; price now drifts along the lows with RSI mid-range.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4076 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of the 1.4100 pivot invalidates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the near-term catalyst
15:02 UTC
Downtrend, lower highs · RSI 44 · price 1.40842
Descending, session low probed.
USDCAD ground lower through the NY session, printing a chain of lower highs down to 1.40761 before a shallow bounce toward 1.4084; price sits below EMA20/50 with RSI near 43. Move fits the CAD read of the pair easing back off 1.4100 as WTI near $86 lends the Loonie support.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.40925, 1.41047, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40761 confirms continuation of the intraday lower-low sequence
M15 close back above 1.40925 breaks the lower-high chain
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice the near-term read
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session, sliding off the 1.4110 range high to a session low of 1.40761 as WTI strength lent the Loonie support. Price bounced but stalled under 1.4090; the 1.4100 pivot now sits overhead as resistance.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4100 pivot negates the lower-high sequence
Break below 1.40761 confirms the next leg down
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the near-term CAD catalyst
USDCAD leaked lower through NY hours, sliding from the 1.4100 pivot to a session low of 1.4076 before a shallow bounce back to 1.4084. WTI near $86 and softer USD demand kept the Loonie supported; rejection at the 1.4100 confluence held all session.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4070
Resistance: 1.40925, 1.41005
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41005 pivot reopens the 1.4110 highs
Break of 1.40761 session low confirms continuation lower
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice CAD
USDCAD drifted lower through the NY session, printing lower highs from 1.41047 down to a session low at 1.40761 which was swept and bought back to 1.40925. Price now hovers below EMA20/50 near 1.4084 as WTI strength keeps the pair capped under the 1.4100 pivot; RSI(14) mid-40s, no extreme.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4094 swing high reopens the 1.4100 pivot
Break and hold below 1.40761 session low confirms the next lower-low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reprice this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, sub-1.4100 · RSI 43 · price 1.40833
Lower highs after range break below 1.4100.
USDCAD spent most of the window pinned in a tight 1.4100-1.4110 range, then broke down through the 1.4100 pivot during NY hours, printing a session low at 1.40761. Price is grinding lower with RSI(14) mid-40s; the soft CAD CPI / firm oil backdrop keeps the pair heavy just under the 1.4100 confluence.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41000 pivot invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.40761 confirms a lower low toward 1.40700
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
14:31 UTC
Downtrend, bounce off lows · RSI 42 · price 1.40833
Lower highs, lower lows after 1.4100 break.
USDCAD spent most of the window pinned around the 1.4100 pivot before breaking down through NY hours, printing a session low at 1.40761 as USD demand softened on Iran-diplomacy hopes. Price has since bounced to 1.40833 but holds below EMA20/50, RSI(14) cooling near 42. Soft Canadian CPI and firm oil are keeping the pair capped under 1.4100.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.4100, 1.41047
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4100 pivot would neutralise the breakdown read
Close below 1.40761 swing low confirms continuation lower
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
NY session broke below the 1.4105 range that held through Asia/London, printing a session low at 1.40761 as USD stayed bid on safe-haven flows. Bounce to 1.40925 was rejected and price now consolidates near 1.4083, sitting below EMA20/50 with the 1.4100 confluence capping.
Support: 1.40761, 1.40806
Resistance: 1.40925, 1.4100, 1.41047
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41000 confluence invalidates the downside read
Break of 1.40761 session low confirms continuation of lower lows
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground sideways near 1.4105 through the Asia/London hours before rolling over into NY, breaking the 1.4100 pivot and tagging a session low at 1.40761 as oil firmness cushioned the Loonie. Price is below both EMAs with RSI(14) at 42; a shallow bounce to 1.40925 has faded back to 1.40831.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41000 pivot neutralises the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the read
USDCAD faded through the NY session from the 1.4110 session high toward a 1.4076 session low, holding under the 1.4100 pivot as firm oil cushions CAD. The final bar swept 1.4076 and snapped back to 1.4089; RSI(14) near 44 after the flush.
Support: 1.4076, 1.4081
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.4110
What it said to watch
close back above 1.4104 breaks the lower-high sequence
break below 1.4076 session low opens 1.4050
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
NY session sold USDCAD off the 1.4100 pivot down to a session low of 1.40761 before buyers stepped in for a bounce to 1.4089. Rejection stayed pinned under the 1.4100 confluence with oil-cushioned CAD capping the pair; RSI(14) cooling near 43.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4100 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Break below 1.40761 confirms a fresh lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
NY session sold USDCAD off the 1.41047 range high down to a session low at 1.40761, with firm WTI near $86 keeping the pair capped below 1.4110. Chain of lower highs intact and price closed on its lows; RSI(14) around 34, not yet oversold.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4091, 1.41047, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4091 swing high would break the lower-high sequence
Sustained break of 1.40761 session low extends the down-leg toward 1.4000
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4105 shelf through the NY session, breaking below the 1.4090 range floor and printing a fresh session low at 1.40761. Selling accelerated as WTI held near $86 and USD demand eased on Iran diplomacy hopes; RSI(14) near 34 but not yet stretched.
Support: 1.40761, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4090, 1.41047
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4090 prior floor would neutralise the breakdown
Failure to hold 1.40761 session low opens the path toward 1.4000 psych
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, session lows · RSI 36 · price 1.4082
Range break lower, lower highs.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4105 consolidation floor through NY hours and is pressing session lows near 1.4080, with WTI firm keeping the pair capped near 1.4100 all day. RSI(14) sits sub-40 as the pair prints lower highs; rejection at 1.4095 confirmed the shift lower.
Support: 1.40806, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4095, 1.4105, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Close below 1.40806 opens the path toward the 1.4000 psych mark
Reclaim of 1.4095 would neutralise the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
13:31 UTC
Downtrend, momentum weak · RSI 40 · price 1.4082
Lower highs, pressing session low.
USDCAD stalled near 1.4100 through the London-NY transition, then broke lower into the NY session, sliding to the session low at 1.4080 with RSI(14) around 40. A bounce to 1.4094 was sold and price is retesting the lows; firm WTI oil is the offset capping the pair.
Support: 1.4080, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.4094, 1.4104, 1.4110
What it said to watch
15m close below 1.4080 opens the path toward 1.4000
Reclaim of 1.4104 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
13:17 UTC
Intraday downdrift off session high · RSI 44 · price 1.40881
Lower highs into NY, testing session low.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4110 session high and printed lower highs through NY, rejecting near the 1.4100 round number as firm WTI capped the pair. Sellers pressed to 1.4081 before a bounce to 1.4094; price now consolidating around 1.4088 with RSI mid-40s.
Support: 1.40806, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.40939, 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4081 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4100 negates the lower-high sequence
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USDCAD held a tight 1.4100–1.4110 range through the London-NY session before selling off into NY hours to 1.40806, RSI cooling to the mid-40s. Price has since bounced to 1.4088 and is consolidating below the broken 1.4100 pivot; firm oil near $86 keeps the Loonie supported and caps the pair.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40763
Resistance: 1.40952, 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41000 invalidates the range break read
Failure to hold 1.40806 opens the path to the window low at 1.40763
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USDCAD chopped along the 1.4100 pivot for most of the window before NY hours sold it down to a session low of 1.40806, a bounce lifting it back to 1.40902 into the close. The 1.4100 confluence flagged in the digest now caps as resistance after acting as support; soft CAD CPI and the oil cushion keep price pinned around this pivot.
Support: 1.40806, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4100 pivot on a close reopens the 1.41110 session high
Failure to hold 1.40806 session low confirms a lower-low toward 1.40760
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
13:03 UTC
Downtrend, off session low · RSI 44 · price 1.40902
Range break lower, bounce in progress.
USDCAD broke below the 1.4100-1.4110 range that held through the Asian and early London hours, printing a session low at 1.4081 before a bounce to 1.4090. Price sits below EMA20/50 with the 1.4100 pivot now acting as overhead resistance.
Support: 1.40806, 1.4000
Resistance: 1.41047, 1.41106
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41047 negates the breakdown and reopens the prior range
M15 close below 1.4080 extends the leg toward the 1.4000 psych area
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC is the next scheduled CAD catalyst
USDCAD lost the 1.4100 pivot after hours of consolidation near the session high at 1.4111, rolling over to a session low of 1.40806 as the oil-supported Loonie firmed. Price now trades sub-1.4085, below EMA20/50, RSI(14) around 37 with lower highs stacking through the NY session.
Support: 1.40806, 1.40741
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4100 pivot would neutralise the intraday downtrend read
Break of 1.40806 session low opens the path toward the 1.40741 day low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC is the next CAD catalyst
12:46 UTC
Downtrend, rolling over from session high · RSI 38 · price 1.40854
Lower highs, broke below the intraday range.
USDCAD rejected the session high at 1.4111 through the London hours and has broken below the 1.4098–1.4111 range, now pressing the session low near 1.4081 with RSI(14) mid-30s. Price trades below EMA20 and EMA50, no sign of demand stepping in yet at the lows.
Support: 1.40806, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41106
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4100 invalidates the breakdown read
Failure to hold 1.4080 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) is the next material catalyst for this pair
12:32 UTC
Pullback, momentum down · RSI 35 · price 1.40842
Lower highs, breaking session range low.
NY session rolled USD/CAD off the 1.4111 session high down to 1.4083 as the broad USD eased back from one-week highs. Price now sits below EMA20/50 with RSI cooling into the mid-30s, and buyers have yet to defend the 1.4081 session low.
Support: 1.40815, 1.40763
Resistance: 1.4099, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4081 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4099 negates the pullback
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rolled off the 1.41047 swing high and broke below the 1.4100 shelf that had held through the Asian and early London hours, printing a session low at 1.40831 with RSI(14) near 38. Sellers stepped in on firm crude as the pair drifts under EMA20/50; no bounce yet off the lows.
Support: 1.40831, 1.40763
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41047, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4100 invalidates the lower-high sequence
Failure to hold 1.40831 confirms continuation lower
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape the intraday read
12:16 UTC
Downtrend, rolling off session high · RSI 34 · price 1.40843
Lower highs from 1.4110, pressing session lows.
USDCAD rolled off the 1.4110 session high and has printed a chain of lower highs into the NY session, now testing the 1.4082 swing low with RSI(14) around 33. Rejection at the 1.41000 round number capped every bounce as price grinds toward the base of the day's range.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4073
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40821 confirms a lower low and opens 1.40730
Reclaim of 1.41000 negates the downside rotation
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
12:16 UTC
Intraday downtrend, momentum building · RSI 38 · price 1.40843
Range broke down, lower highs into session lows.
USDCAD lost the 1.4100-1.4110 range it held through the London session and is now pressing session lows near 1.4082-1.4083, RSI(14) cooling into the high-30s. Firm crude keeps a lid on any USD/CAD recovery, with supply capping each bounce below 1.4100.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4073
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41047, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41000 invalidates the downside break
Failure to hold 1.40821 confirms lower session lows toward 1.40730
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape this read
NY session faded the recovery, price rejected at the 1.41047 swing high and is grinding back toward the session low near 1.40849. RSI(14) cooling around 40, price now below EMA20/50 with the day low at 1.40821 in focus.
Support: 1.40849, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.41047, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40821 confirms a fresh lower low
Reclaim of 1.41047 swing high negates the intraday rollover
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
12:02 UTC
Intraday down, fading from session high · RSI 41 · price 1.40887
Lower highs after rejection at 1.4110.
USDCAD rolled over from the 1.4110 session high and is grinding lower into the NY morning, printing lower highs and closing at 1.40887 below both EMAs. Rejection at 1.4104 capped the last bounce; oil strength continues to lean on the pair. Canada Retail Sales tomorrow is the next domestic catalyst.
Support: 1.40848, 1.40724
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.41105
What it said to watch
Loss of 1.40848 session low confirms continuation lower
Reclaim of 1.41040 swing high negates the fade
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this range
11:47 UTC
Pullback from intraday high · RSI 43 · price 1.40915
Lower highs, capped at 1.4100.
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4110 session high and rolled over through the London session, now back at 1.40915 after failing to hold 1.41000. RSI(14) in the mid-40s and ATR near 5 pips — supply capping at successive lower highs while the 1.4100 confluence keeps a lid, consistent with the oil-vs-tariff standoff noted in context.
Support: 1.40886, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41047, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40850 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.41000 reopens the 1.41100 session high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
11:47 UTC
Range, drifting lower · RSI 44 · price 1.40915
Capped below 1.4105, fading within intraday range.
USDCAD stalled around the 1.4100 shelf, unable to clear 1.41047 before fading to 1.40915 with RSI(14) mid-40s. Price is back in the lower half of the intraday 1.4082–1.4110 range, consistent with the digest's read of a two-day rebound stalling at 1.4100 confluence.
Support: 1.40907, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.41047, 1.41102
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40907 opens the path to the 1.40821 session low
Reclaim of 1.41047 needed to re-test the 1.4110 session high
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT could shift this read intraday
11:31 UTC
Ranging, capped near 1.4100 · RSI 46 · price 1.4094
Consolidation under session high.
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4110 session high and slid to a 1.4082 swing low during NY hours before recovering to 1.4104, then fading back to 1.4094. Rangebound between 1.4082 and 1.4110 with oil capping upside; no clean setup in play.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4066
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 shelf
Failure to hold 1.4082 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could shift this range read
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4110 confluence through London and dipped to a 1.4085 session low before recovering to 1.4104, now easing back to 1.4094 with firm oil capping upside. Price is ranging between 1.4085 and 1.4110, holding below both EMAs — no clear directional break in play.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path back toward the 1.4150 area
Loss of 1.4085 session low confirms a lower-low into 1.4080
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow could break the 1.4085–1.4110 range
11:17 UTC
Range, capped near 1.4100 · RSI 48 · price 1.40974
Consolidation below session high after London dip and recovery.
USDCAD is stuck around the 1.4100 round number, unable to clear the 1.4104/1.4111 session high after four attempts. London hours saw a dip to 1.40821 that was recovered into the London-NY transition; RSI(14) sits neutral near 48 with price back under EMA20/50.
Support: 1.4098, 1.40821, 1.40625
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4111 opens the path back toward the 1.4150 shelf
Failure to hold 1.40821 confirms a lower-low and reopens 1.4062
US Jobless Claims 12:30 GMT could break the 1.4100 balance
11:17 UTC
Range, drifting off session high · RSI 49 · price 1.40974
Consolidation below 1.4110 cap.
USDCAD is ranging near the 1.4100 confluence, capped by repeated rejections into the 1.41047/1.4110 session high. Price swept down to 1.40821 in the NY session before buyers stepped in and lifted it back to mid-range; RSI(14) is flat near 50 with ATR around 6 pips.
Support: 1.40886, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.41047, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41047 reopens the 1.4110 session high
Loss of 1.40886 confirms a lower low toward 1.40821
USDCAD is pinned below the 1.4100/1.4110 confluence into the London afternoon, having dipped to a session low of 1.4082 during the NY session before buyers recovered it back to 1.4101. Price is grinding in a tight range with RSI(14) neutral near 55 — no clean directional break in play.
Support: 1.40886, 1.4082
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 prior high
Failure to hold 1.4085 reopens the 1.4082 session low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this range read
USDCAD holding just above 1.4100 through NY hours, capped by the 1.4110 session-high shelf as strong crude offsets tariff/CPI-driven CAD softness. A mid-window dip swept 1.4085 before buyers reclaimed the round number; RSI(14) neutral near 54 with no momentum edge.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40848
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path to the 1.4150 shelf
Failure to hold 1.4085 confirms a lower-low and breaks the range
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
10:47 UTC
Recovering after intraday dip · RSI 56 · price 1.40997
Ranging below 1.4110 shelf.
USDCAD faded from the overnight 1.4110 shelf to 1.4082 in the London session, then recovered to press the 1.4100 psych level again — the same confluence hurdle capping the tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness. Price is now retracing roughly 60% of that decline with RSI(14) back to mid-range; the 1.4100/1.4110 band remains the immediate ceiling.
Support: 1.40886, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41047, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.4110 needed to clear the shelf and reaffirm upside
Failure to hold 1.40886 reopens the 1.40821 session low
1.4100 confluence continues to cap; rejection here keeps the range intact
Consolidation under resistance, holding above session low.
USDCAD stalled repeatedly under the 1.4100/1.4110 conflu shelf through the Asia and London sessions, dipping to a 1.4082 session low before recovering into the London-NY transition. Price now sits back at 1.40997 against the shelf with RSI(14) neutral near 53; strong crude is offsetting the tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness noted in context.
Support: 1.4085, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4104, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.41100 needed to clear the conflu shelf
Failure to hold the 1.40850 session low opens 1.40800 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
10:32 UTC
Recovering, consolidating near highs · RSI 58 · price 1.4104
Range below 1.4110, dip bought at 1.4082.
USDCAD held the 1.4100 confluence, recovering from an Asian-session dip to 1.4082 back toward the 1.4110 session high, where supply has capped repeatedly. Price is consolidating just below that shelf into the London session with RSI(14) mid-range; soft June CPI and tariff risk underpin the pair while firm crude caps the topside.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4082
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.4110 needed to extend toward the 1.4150 resistance
Loss of 1.4082 swing low confirms a lower low and breaks the recovery
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
10:31 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 57 · price 1.4104
Consolidation below 1.4110, dip bought back.
USDCAD ground higher through the London-NY session to reject 1.4110, then dipped to 1.4085 during NY hours before buyers stepped back in to reclaim 1.4100 — consistent with the tariff/rate-divergence bid capped by firm crude. RSI(14) mid-range near 57, ATR ~8 pips; pair coiling under the 1.4110 confluence hurdle.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path to the 1.4150 res shelf
Failure to hold 1.4085 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
10:17 UTC
Range, recovering off lows · RSI 56 · price 1.41009
Pinned near 1.4100 after dip and recovery.
USDCAD topped near 1.4110 in yesterday's NY session, consolidated, then dipped to 1.4085 in early London today before recovering to the 1.4100 confluence hurdle. Price is glued to 1.4100 with tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness offset by firm crude; RSI(14) mid-range at 56.
Support: 1.40848, 1.40979
Resistance: 1.41013, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.4110 reaffirms the upside push
Failure to hold 1.4085 opens a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
10:16 UTC
Sideways, capped at 1.4110 · RSI 55 · price 1.41009
Consolidation below session high.
USDCAD is pinned to the 1.4100 round number and repeatedly rejected at the 1.4110 session high, matching the digest's confluence hurdle. Early London dipped to 1.4082 before buyers reclaimed 1.4100; RSI(14) mid-range at 55, no directional pressure.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4082 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD stalled repeatedly at the 1.4110 session high through London before rolling over into NY, printing a session low at 1.4082 as strong crude offset the tariff/soft-CPI CAD weakness. Price has since recovered to 1.4096, back into the 1.4097 supply that capped the last hour; RSI hovering mid-range near 47.
Support: 1.4088, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.4097, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4110 needed to reaffirm the prior push higher
Failure to hold 1.40821 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
10:02 UTC
Range, drifting after London dip · RSI 47 · price 1.40957
Consolidation below 1.4110 shelf, recovering off session low.
USDCAD stalled under the 1.4110 shelf through the prior NY session, then slid to a 1.4082 session low during London hours as strong crude capped the pair. Price has since recovered to 1.4096, sitting near the 50% retrace of that drop with RSI(14) neutral around 47.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4057
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41106
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4082 session low confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4100 psych and 1.4110 session high reopens the shelf top
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
09:47 UTC
Range below 1.4100, London pullback · RSI 51 · price 1.40967
Capped under 1.4110 shelf, session low then recovery.
USDCAD spent most of the window pinned to the 1.4100 shelf, capped repeatedly near the 1.41106 range top before the London open dragged it to a session low of 1.40821. Buyers stepped in there and price has clawed back to 1.40967, RSI(14) neutral near 51; the pair remains rangebound below 1.4100 as strong crude offsets the tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness.
Support: 1.40886, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.40979, 1.41106
What it said to watch
Reclaim and hold above 1.40979 puts the 1.41106 range top back in play
M15 close below 1.40821 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
09:47 UTC
Uptrend faded, pullback in play · RSI 51 · price 1.40967
Consolidation below 1.4110, London-open breakdown then recovery.
USDCAD capped repeatedly at 1.4110 through the prior NY session then coiled near 1.4105, matching the 1.4100/1.4110 resistance shelf where strong oil offsets tariff-driven CAD weakness. London open flushed to a 1.4082 session low before buyers recovered price to 1.4097; RSI(14) back to mid-range, price under both EMAs.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 reopens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4082 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst
USDCAD held a tight 1.4100-1.4110 shelf through most of the window before breaking lower into the London session, printing 1.4082 where buyers stepped in and dragged price back to 1.4094. Tariff/soft-CPI CAD weakness stays capped by firm crude, keeping the pair pinned below the 1.4100 confluence hurdle.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4100 shelf reopens the 1.4110 session high
Failure to hold 1.4082 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4055
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could shift this read
09:31 UTC
Downtick from shelf, stalling · RSI 45 · price 1.40944
Range break lower, retesting from below.
London session broke below the 1.4105 shelf that capped price for hours, printing a low at 1.4082 before recovering to 1.4094. Pair remains pinned under 1.4100 with crude offsetting tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness; RSI(14) mid-range near 44.
Support: 1.40886, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4105 negates the downside range break
Loss of 1.4082 confirms a lower-low into NY hours
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
09:17 UTC
Overnight uptrend faded, now pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.40932
Rejection at 1.4110 shelf, lower high forming.
USDCAD ground higher through Asia to a 1.41105 session high, capped repeatedly at the 1.4100/1.4110 shelf with soft CAD after Monday's CPI miss and tariff news. Early London saw a sharp break to 1.40821, then a recovery to 1.40932; price now sits mid-range below EMA20 with RSI cooling toward 43.
Support: 1.40886, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41000 reopens the 1.41105 shelf test
Failure to hold 1.40821 confirms a lower low
Sustained hold above 1.4100 needed to reaffirm the upside per context
09:17 UTC
Pullback off session highs · RSI 44 · price 1.40932
Range break lower, buyers stepping in at session low.
USDCAD spent the London morning capped under the 1.41030 shelf before breaking lower into 1.40821, where buyers stepped in and lifted price back to 1.40932. Pair now trades below EMA20/50 after fading from the 1.41106 session high; oil strength continues to cap the topside per the CAD read.
Support: 1.40821, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4103, 1.41106
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.41030 shelf negates the range-break-lower read
Loss of 1.40821 session low opens the path toward the 1.40555 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
09:03 UTC
Intraday pullback from shelf · RSI 44 · price 1.40928
Broke below 1.4100 shelf, lower low then bounce.
Price coiled on the 1.4100/1.4105 shelf through Asia after topping near 1.4110, then rolled over into London with a break down to 1.40821. A ~50% bounce back to 1.40928 has stalled below the reclaimed shelf; RSI(14) mid-range around 43.
Support: 1.40821, 1.40886
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4100 shelf negates the intraday breakdown
Loss of 1.40821 confirms a lower low into London
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
09:03 UTC
Uptrend stalled, pulling back · RSI 44 · price 1.40928
Rejection at 1.4110, lower highs into London.
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4100/1.4110 confluence overnight and rolled over through the London session, sliding to 1.4082 before buyers stepped in. Price now hovering near 1.4093 below EMA20, with 1.4100 capping the recovery; soft CAD CPI underpins the pair while crude offsets the upside.
Support: 1.40821, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4100 reopens the 1.4110 session high
Loss of 1.4082 session low confirms a lower-low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
Lower high after rejection, bouncing off session low.
Price stalled repeatedly at the 1.4100 shelf through the London session, then the NY hours sold it down to a session low of 1.40820 before a bounce back to 1.40926. RSI(14) has cooled to the low 40s; the 1.4100 confluence hurdle flagged by the tariff/CPI CAD backdrop remains the intraday cap.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41000 reopens the path toward session high 1.41110
Loss of 1.40820 session low confirms a lower low
Oil/Hormuz headlines the live driver capping USDCAD near the shelf
08:47 UTC
Intraday pullback after London push · RSI 44 · price 1.40926
Range break below 1.4100, lower high forming.
London drove USDCAD to a 1.41110 session high then stalled, consolidating near 1.4105 through midday before an NY-hours slide broke the 1.4100 shelf down to a 1.40821 session low. Price is recovering to 1.40926, but trades under EMA20/50 with RSI cooling to the low 40s.
Support: 1.40821, 1.40886
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4100 negates the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.40821 opens the next leg lower
08:32 UTC
Pullback after intraday top · RSI 44 · price 1.40927
Range break lower, bounce underway.
London session broke down from the 1.4104–1.4110 consolidation shelf, tagging 1.40821 before buyers reclaimed 1.4093. The 1.4100 confluence hurdle now caps price from above, with RSI(14) recovering from the low 40s.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.4100 reopens the 1.4111 session high
Failure to hold 1.4082 confirms a lower low toward 1.4054
08:31 UTC
Intraday rollover from range top · RSI 42 · price 1.40927
Double top ~1.4110, lower highs into NY.
USDCAD stalled twice at the 1.4110 double top through London before rolling over into NY, breaking the 1.40980 shelf and sweeping a 1.40821 session low as high crude kept the pair capped near 1.4100. Bounce to 1.40960 faded and price sits at 1.40927, below EMA20/50 with RSI cooling into the low 40s.
Support: 1.40886, 1.40821
Resistance: 1.4098, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.40980 negates the rollover read
Sustained break of 1.40821 confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Rejected at 1.4110 shelf, broke back below 1.4100.
USDCAD stalled repeatedly at the 1.4110 confluence shelf through the London-NY session before slipping under the 1.4100 psych level into Asia, printing a session low at 1.4082. Price has since recovered to 1.4094 with RSI(14) cooling near 43 — the 1.4100 round number is now acting as the immediate cap, consistent with crude keeping upside limited.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4082 confirms a lower low
Reclaim of 1.4100 psych level re-opens the 1.4110 shelf
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the intraday read
Rejection at 1.4110, breakdown from consolidation.
London session: USDCAD repeatedly rejected the 1.4110 shelf, then broke down through the 1.4105 consolidation floor to a session low at 1.40821 before bouncing to 1.40939. The pair remains capped near 1.4100 with crude offsetting tariff/CPI-driven CAD weakness; RSI cooling into the mid-40s.
Support: 1.40849, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41050 negates the breakdown read
Loss of 1.40849 session low opens 1.40780
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
08:02 UTC
Intraday rollover, momentum down · RSI 32 · price 1.40899
Break below 1.4100 shelf after extended consolidation.
London open saw USDCAD break below the 1.4100 confluence shelf that capped the pair through Asia, sliding to 1.40821 before a shallow bounce to ~1.4090. Sub-2.5% June CPI and the 50% tariff backdrop weigh on CAD but strong crude keeps the pair pinned under 1.4100; RSI(14) near 32 after the fast leg down.
Support: 1.40821, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4100 negates the breakdown read
Loss of 1.40821 opens the path toward 1.40555
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Range broke down at London open, lower low then bounce.
USDCAD held a tight 1.4105-1.4110 shelf through the Asian session before London open broke it down to a 1.40821 session low, RSI(14) cooling to the low-40s. Buyers stepped in on the dip and price recovered to 1.409, but the pair sits back below the shelf with 1.4100 capping — consistent with the digest's oil-driven CAD offset near the 1.4100 hurdle.
Support: 1.40821, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.41106
What it said to watch
Reclaim above the 1.4105 shelf reopens the 1.41106 session high
Failure to hold the 1.40821 session low confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:47 UTC
Uptrend stalled, rolling over · RSI 40 · price 1.40928
Rally to 1.4110, range, then breakdown.
USDCAD rallied through European hours to a session high at 1.4110 — the 1.4100 confluence hurdle flagged in context — then held a tight range near 1.4105 before rolling over into NY hours, breaking below 1.4100 to 1.4082. Buyers recovered the pair to 1.40928 into the last bar; RSI(14) near 40 after the drop, price below EMA20/50.
Support: 1.40849, 1.4082, 1.40633
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41106
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4100 negates the breakdown and reopens 1.4110
Failure to hold 1.40820 confirms a lower-low, exposing 1.4064
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:46 UTC
Rolled over from consolidation, near-term soft · RSI 42 · price 1.40928
Range broke down, fresh lower low at 1.40821.
USDCAD held a tight consolidation around 1.4105 through the NY-Asia hours, then broke lower into the London open, sweeping down to 1.40821 before bouncing to 1.40928. RSI(14) cooling near 41; the 1.4103 range base now caps as resistance while oil-driven CAD support and post-CPI/tariff weakness keep price pinned below 1.4100.
Support: 1.40821, 1.4080
Resistance: 1.4103, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41030 range base invalidates the breakdown read
Sustained trade below 1.40821 confirms the lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:32 UTC
Turning lower after consolidation · RSI 38 · price 1.40836
Broke below intraday range, testing 50% retrace.
London session broke down from the 1.4105–1.4110 consolidation, sliding to 1.4084 and landing on the 50% retrace of the prior up-move from 1.4055. RSI(14) rolling over from midrange, no extreme yet; 1.41000 range floor now caps as resistance.
Support: 1.4082, 1.40763, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close back above 1.41000 negates the downside break
Failure to hold 1.40763 swing low opens deeper retrace toward 1.40555 asian low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift CAD tone
07:32 UTC
Rolling over from session high · RSI 33 · price 1.40836
Rejection below 1.4100 shelf, lower highs into pullback.
USDCAD stalled at the 1.4100 confluence flagged in the CAD read, printing a session high at 1.41110 before rolling over through the London morning; price has since broken the 1.4100 shelf and is pressing the session low near 1.40820 with RSI(14) cooling toward 33. Sub-target Canadian CPI keeps the pair bid on dips, but crude is capping upside as noted.
Support: 1.4082, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of the 1.4100 shelf reopens the 1.41110 session high
Loss of 1.40820 session low exposes the 1.40540 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:17 UTC
Intraday up stalling, rolling over · RSI 41 · price 1.40886
Rejection at session high, broke consolidation floor.
Rally from 1.4055 stalled at the 1.41110 session high, rejected twice before rolling over; the last bars broke the 1.41050 range floor down to 1.4088 in thin Asian trade. RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s as the pair fades from the 1.4100 confluence hurdle.
Support: 1.4078, 1.4065
Resistance: 1.4105, 1.4111
What it said to watch
close back above 1.41050 puts the 1.41110 session high in play
loss of 1.40780 prior low confirms a lower low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:17 UTC
Uptrend stalling, rolling over · RSI 36 · price 1.40886
Range break to the downside off session high.
USDCAD topped at the 1.4110 session high and chopped along the 1.4100 shelf for hours before breaking below it into early London, printing 1.40886 with RSI(14) rolling to the mid-30s. Oil-driven CAD support is capping the pair under 1.4100 as flagged, with price now sitting on the 50% retrace of the 1.4054-1.4110 leg.
Support: 1.4080, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4100 negates the downside range break
Failure to hold 1.4080 opens the path back to the 1.4054 swing low
07:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 38 · price 1.40986
Consolidation under session high, slipping.
USDCAD climbed through Asian hours to a 1.4110 session high then coiled in a tight 1.4103–1.4108 band before slipping below the 1.4100 psych handle into early London, RSI(14) cooling to the high-30s. Rejection at 1.4110 has capped the advance and price now probes the 1.4098 session low.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4110
What it said to watch
Reclaim above 1.4110 session high revives the intraday uptrend
Sustained loss of 1.4098 session low opens 1.4076 prior low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
07:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling, fading into London · RSI 41 · price 1.40986
Rally to 1.4111, extended consolidation, now breaking below 1.4100.
USDCAD ran up through the NY session to a 1.4111 high on the broad safe-haven USD bid, then went flat around 1.4105 through Asia. London opened with a fade back below the 1.4100 psych level, RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s; session low at 1.40975 now the immediate floor.
Support: 1.40975, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.41105
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.41000 psych negates the downside break and reopens 1.41105 session high
Sustained trade below 1.40975 confirms the lower low and exposes prior structure toward 1.4090
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset this range
06:47 UTC
Uptrend stalling, pulling back · RSI 41 · price 1.40976
Consolidation below session high, slipping under 1.4100.
USDCAD rallied off 1.4054 to a 1.4111 session high then flatlined for hours before slipping back under the 1.4100 psych level into the current bar, RSI(14) cooling to the low 40s. USD stays broadly bid on safe-haven flows while soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariffs keep the loonie heavy; the pullback is holding the 23.6% retrace of the rally so far.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4089, 1.40825
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Reclaim of 1.4100 psych restores the consolidation read
Failure to hold 1.4098 session low opens the 38.2% fib at 1.4089
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reshape this read
USDCAD ground up through the London-NY session to 1.4111 then coiled tightly around 1.4105 through the Asian range, the tariff/oil themes keeping the pair bid above 1.4100. London open has knocked it back below the handle to 1.4098, RSI(14) cooling into the low 40s as the consolidation gives way.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4100, 1.4105, 1.4111
What it said to watch
Sustained trade back above 1.4100 reaffirms the prior consolidation
M15 close below 1.4098 session low confirms a lower-low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow could reshape this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now flat · RSI 48 · price 1.4104
Consolidation under session high.
USDCAD ran from the 1.4055 low to a session high at 1.4111 during London, then went flat, coiling on the 1.4100 pivot with USD broadly bid and tariff/soft-CPI overhang capping loonie rebounds. Last few bars dipped to 1.4098 before reclaiming 1.4100; RSI(14) mid-range, ATR compressed near 5 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4098, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4098 confirms a lower low and cracks the 1.4100 pivot
Reclaim and hold above 1.4111 reopens the path toward 1.4150
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
06:31 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now ranging · RSI 48 · price 1.4104
Consolidation under 1.4110 after London-NY grind higher.
USDCAD ground higher through the London-NY window into 1.4110, then stalled into a tight range as the safe-haven USD bid and soft CAD CPI kept the pair firm above 1.4100. Latest bar dipped to 1.4098 before recovering to 1.4104, RSI(14) neutral near 48 — no momentum extension in the last few hours.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4080, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4130
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close below 1.4098 opens 1.4080 swing low
Break and hold above 1.4110 resumes the intraday uptrend toward 1.4130
Thu Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) could shift the read
USDCAD rallied through 1.4100 during the London-NY session, topping at 1.4110, and has since gone flat, coiling in a tight band while the tariff/soft-CPI backdrop keeps the loonie heavy. Last bar dipped to 1.4098 before closing at 1.41009 — a minor pullback from the session high, RSI(14) neutral near 46.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4100 round pivot opens the 1.4055 swing low
Break and hold above 1.4110 session high resumes the intraday advance
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could break this range
Consolidation just above 1.4100 after intraday rally.
USDCAD ran from the 1.4055 London low to 1.4111 and has since gone sideways just above the 1.4100 pivot, with soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariffs keeping the loonie heavy. Last bar dipped to 1.4098 on a volume tick, RSI(14) cooling near 46 as the grind stalls under 1.4110.
Support: 1.4098, 1.4080, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4105
What it said to watch
Close below 1.4098 opens 1.4080 and puts the 1.4100 pivot back in play
Sustained trade above 1.4110 extends the intraday move
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ran from 1.4054 up through 1.4100 during the London-NY session on a firm USD safe-haven bid and soft-CAD tariff/CPI backdrop, topping at 1.4111. Asia hours have gone flat, coiling between 1.4100 and 1.4110 with ATR compressed near 4 pips and RSI back to neutral around 46; price now drifting under its short EMAs at the range base.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4095, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.41175
What it said to watch
close below 1.41000 psych opens 1.40950 range low
sustained trade above 1.41110 session high extends toward 1.41175
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
06:02 UTC
Uptrend, now flat at highs · RSI 44 · price 1.41009
Consolidation just under session high.
USDCAD ground up through NY session from 1.4054 to a 1.4110 session high on the USD safe-haven bid and CAD tariff overhang, then went flat, consolidating a tight 1.4100–1.4110 band through Asia. Price now drifting to 1.4101 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s; the 1.4100 pivot is holding as intraday support.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 reopens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4100 exposes 1.4085 then the 1.4054 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
05:47 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now flat · RSI 50 · price 1.41048
Consolidation near session highs.
USDCAD ran up through the NY session to 1.4110 on a firm USD safe-haven bid and soft Canadian CPI, then coiled tight overnight in the Asian range just under that high. ATR has collapsed to ~3 pips as price idles around 1.4105, holding the 1.4100 psych level with no fresh push either way.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.41105
What it said to watch
Break above 1.41105 session high opens the path toward the 1.4150 area
Loss of 1.4100 psych puts the 1.4076 swing low back in play
Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) is the next scheduled catalyst for this pair
05:47 UTC
Uptrend stalled, now flat · RSI 52 · price 1.41048
Consolidation just under session high.
USDCAD climbed off the 1.4055 session low through the London-NY window to tag 1.4111, then went flat, coiling in a tight 1.4100-1.4110 band overnight as USD held a broad safe-haven bid and soft Canadian CPI capped the loonie. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range; 1.4100 remains the confluence pivot holding the base.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40993, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.41175
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4110 session high opens the path toward 1.4175
Loss of 1.4100 psych pivot exposes the 1.4055 session low
Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 UTC) could break this range
Consolidation under session high after breakout above 1.4100.
USDCAD rallied through the prior session to break above 1.4100 as soft CAD CPI and confirmed US tariffs weighed on the loonie against a broadly bid USD. Price is now coiled in a tight 1.4099–1.4110 range with RSI(14) flat near 53 and ATR compressed to ~3 pips — no fresh push at the highs.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained trade above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4099 swing low exposes 1.4076
1.4100 pivot — area to watch for a hold or fade
05:31 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat · RSI 53 · price 1.4105
Tight consolidation under session high.
USDCAD ground higher through London/NY into 1.4111 then flattened into thin Asian-session trade, holding just above the 1.4100 pivot. Move reflects broad USD safe-haven bid and a soft CAD after Monday's CPI miss; RSI(14) sits mid-range near 53 with ATR compressed to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4080, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Break above 1.4111 opens the path toward 1.4150
M15 close below 1.4100 breaks the consolidation and reopens 1.4080
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
NY session drove USD/CAD up to 1.4111 into the 1.4100 confluence after Trump signed the 50% Canada tariff proclamations, with USD also carrying a safe-haven bid. Pair has since gone flat, coiling in a tight 1.4099–1.4111 band through Asia and early London; RSI cooled off the highs and buyers keep defending the 1.4100 round level.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4099, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4111 opens the path toward the 1.4150/1.4175 zone
Loss of 1.4100 shifts the read back into the broader range toward 1.4055
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could break this consolidation
05:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling, now flat · RSI 51 · price 1.41046
Consolidation under session high after NY rally.
USD/CAD ran up through the NY session toward 1.4110 on the broad USD safe-haven bid and soft Canadian CPI, stalling just under the 1.4100 confluence. Asian session has gone flat, coiling 1.4103–1.4107 with RSI(14) neutral near 51 and ATR compressing to ~6 pips.
Support: 1.41008, 1.4100, 1.40988
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4100 psych exposes 1.40988 and reopens the range
Canada Retail Sales (Jul 23 12:30 UTC) is the next domestic catalyst
05:03 UTC
Uptrend, momentum flat · RSI 54 · price 1.41049
Consolidation above 1.4100 after NY rally.
USDCAD climbed through the NY session toward 1.4111 on the tariff/USD safe-haven bid, then stalled at the 1.4100 confluence and has coiled into a tight 1.4104-1.4106 Asian range. RSI(14) is neutral near 54 with ATR compressed to ~2.6 pips — no intraday setup in play.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40988
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.41175
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4111 opens the path to 1.4150/1.4175
Loss of 1.4100 psych level flips the near-term read lower toward 1.40988
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break the range
USDCAD climbed off 1.4056 through NY hours toward the 1.4100 confluence on soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, stalling repeatedly at the 1.4110 session high. Price has since gone flat in the Asian session, coiling between 1.4100 and 1.4110 with RSI cooling off the rally into the mid-50s.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4088, 1.40556
Resistance: 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 zone
Loss of 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.4088 swing low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow the next domestic catalyst for this pair
NY-session rally stalled at the 1.4110 session high, the pair capping into the 1.4100 tariff/rate-divergence confluence flagged for CAD. Asia has since coiled in a tight 1.4099–1.4108 range with RSI(14) mid-band and ATR compressed to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4099 swing low exposes the 1.4054 session low
NY session drove a rising-support rally off 1.4054 to the 1.4110 confluence, in line with tariff-driven CAD softness; the pair has since gone flat around 1.4105 through Asia on thin volume. RSI(14) neutral near 52, no directional impulse in play as the 1.4100 psych level holds beneath price.
Support: 1.4103, 1.4100, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.4085 swing low
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break the consolidation
USDCAD ground higher through the London-NY session to a session high near 1.41110 on the tariff/rate-divergence CAD overhang, then stalled into the 1.4100 confluence. Price has coiled in a tight 1.41030-1.41110 range through the Asia session, RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s with the 1.41000 psych level holding as a floor.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4065
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 area
Loss of 1.41000 psych puts 1.40650 swing low back in play
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Consolidation under session high after intraday rally.
USDCAD ground higher through London-NY from the Asian low at 1.4054 to a session high of 1.4111, driven by soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines capping CAD. Price has since coiled in a tight 1.4103-1.4110 band with RSI(14) flattening near neutral — the 1.4110 top is holding and no fresh push in play.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.4110 opens the 1.4150 confluence
Loss of the 1.4100 psych level breaks the rising intraday structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rallied through the prior session to a 1.41110 session high as fresh US tariffs and soft Canadian CPI kept the Loonie capped, then went flat into the Asian session. Price is coiling 1.4100-1.4111 on shrinking ranges, ATR down near 5 pips, RSI mid.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40988, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 area
Failure to hold 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.40988 swing low
Canada Retail Sales 12:30 UTC could break this range
USDCAD ground higher through the Asian session toward 1.4110, stalling under the 1.4100 confluence hurdle after soft Canada CPI and fresh US tariff headlines capped CAD. Price has since coiled in a tight 1.4099-1.4110 band with RSI(14) flat near 55; no fresh impulse in play.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 area
Loss of the 1.4100 psych level exposes 1.4085 and the 1.4056 range low
Canada Retail Sales (12:30 UTC) could break this range
USDCAD ground higher through London-NY hours to a session high near 1.4110, clearing the 1.4100 confluence flagged on the soft-CPI/tariff backdrop, and is now consolidating around 1.4105 in thin Asia trade. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range as the advance flattens just under the high; the 1.4103 area is holding as a range floor.
Support: 1.4103, 1.4099, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of the 1.4103 range floor exposes 1.4099 then 1.4085
Canada Retail Sales (Jul 23 12:30 UTC) is the next domestic test of this read
USDCAD climbed through the NY session to the 1.4110 confluence on the soft-CAD/tariff backdrop, then went flat into Asia, coiling in a tight 1.4100–1.4110 band. RSI(14) mid-range near 53 after the earlier push; ATR compressed to ~5 pips as the Asian range stays narrow.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4088, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4118
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the 1.4118 confluence area
Loss of 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.4088 swing low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow (12:30 UTC) could break this range
USDCAD rallied off the 1.4054 session low through London-NY to stall at 1.4110, then flattened into a tight consolidation around the 1.4100 psych level, RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s. Move fits the tariff-driven CAD weakness backdrop; upside is stalling at the 1.4100 confluence noted in the digest.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4088, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.4088 swing low
USDCAD ground higher through the prior NY session, breaking the 1.4100 confluence on tariff-driven CAD softness, and is now coiling in a tight 1.4103–1.4111 band through the Asia session. RSI(14) neutral near 53 as the move consolidates just under the 1.41110 session high; 1.4100 psych holding as the floor.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4091, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4120
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.41000 psych opens a pullback toward 1.40910
Canada Retail Sales at 12:30 UTC could shift this read
03:31 UTC
Uptrend, stalled into consolidation · RSI 53 · price 1.41039
HH chain flattening below 1.4110.
USDCAD ground higher through London-NY toward the 1.4100 confluence on soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, tapping 1.4110 before stalling. Quiet Asian session now sees price consolidating just above 1.4100 psych, RSI(14) flat near 53 with ATR compressed to ~5 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4088, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4115
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the path to 1.4150
Loss of 1.4100 psych points back toward the 1.4088 prior high
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ran from the 1.4055 swing low through the London-NY session and cleared the 1.4100 confluence, extending on soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff overhang. Price is now drifting flat into the Asia session, capped by the 1.4110 session high with RSI(14) cooling back to neutral.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path to 1.4150
Loss of 1.4100 confluence puts price back into the range toward 1.4085
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC is the next domestic test of this read
USDCAD climbed through NY hours off the 1.4055 swing low to a 1.41105 session high, riding soft CAD CPI and fresh US tariff headlines. Price has since stalled at the 1.4110 cap and is grinding sideways in Asia between 1.4100 and 1.4110, RSI(14) cooling to mid-range as ATR compresses to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40988, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 confluence
Loss of the 1.4100 psych level exposes 1.40988 then the 1.4055 swing low
Canada Retail Sales 23 Jul 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD climbed through the NY session to 1.4111 on the soft-CPI plus tariff backdrop, then stalled at the 1.4100 confluence and has drifted sideways into Asia hours around 1.4105. RSI(14) has cooled back to neutral as price coils just under the session high.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4079, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4175
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4111 opens the 1.4150/1.4175 area
Loss of the 1.4100 psych level exposes 1.4079 swing low
03:02 UTC
Uptrend stalling near highs · RSI 51 · price 1.41027
Consolidation below session high.
Asia session grinding sideways just under the 1.41110 session high after the London-NY rally stalled into the 1.4100 confluence; USD/CAD firm on tariff and rate-divergence backdrop. RSI(14) flat near midline, range compressing to roughly 1.4099-1.4111.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4100, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 reopens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.40990 confirms a lower-low and breaks the consolidation
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
London/NY drove a clean HH run to the 1.41110 one-week high as tariff-driven CAD weakness held the bid. Asia session is consolidating just below, RSI(14) back to neutral around 46 after rejection at the highs; price drifting under EMA20 within a 1.40990–1.41110 range.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4090, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4106
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 reopens the 1.4150/1.4175 path
Loss of 1.40990 range low confirms a lower-low
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD rallied off 1.40555 through the London-NY hours and stalled at the 1.41100 session high, the 1.4100 confluence flagged on soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariffs. Price is now grinding sideways 1.4100-1.4110 in early Asia, RSI(14) neutral near 51 after the push faded.
Support: 1.41008, 1.4100, 1.4088
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41100 opens the path to 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.41008 swing low reopens 1.4088
Canada Retail Sales (Jul 23 12:30 GMT) the next domestic test
USDCAD ground higher through the London-NY session off the 1.40540 swing low toward the 1.41110 session high, backed by the 50% Canada tariff headline and a firm USD bid. Price is now consolidating just under 1.4110 in a thin Asian session with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-50s; the round-number 1.4100 is holding as near support.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
A close above 1.41110 opens the path to the 1.4150 confluence
Failure to hold 1.4100 exposes 1.40850 prior high
Canada Retail Sales (Jul 23 12:30 UTC) could shift this read
Consolidating below 1.4100 confluence after NY push.
USDCAD ground higher through London-NY toward the 1.4110 session high on the soft CAD CPI and fresh US tariff backdrop, then stalled at the 1.4100 confluence. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4099-1.4110 band during Asian hours, RSI back to neutral and ATR compressed to ~4 pips.
Support: 1.40985, 1.4078
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 reaffirms the push toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.40985 opens the prior range near 1.4078
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
HH/HL chain stalling into consolidation under session high.
USDCAD ground higher through London/NY toward the 1.4110 session high on soft Canadian CPI and fresh US tariff headlines, then stalled at the 1.4100 confluence. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4100-1.4110 band into the Asia session with RSI(14) back near 50 after the run-up.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4111 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4085 breaks the intraday HL chain
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD climbed through the London-NY session to a 1.41110 high, then stalled; Asia session is consolidating around 1.4105, holding above the 1.4100 confluence that was cleared earlier. RSI(14) neutral near 55, momentum flat as soft CAD CPI and the 50% tariff overhang keep the bid underpinned.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40988, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
Close above 1.41110 opens the path toward the 1.4150 area
Loss of 1.4100 confluence and the 1.40988 recent low signals a pullback
Canada Retail Sales Jul 23 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ran from the 1.4054 swing low up to the 1.4111 session high, driven by the Loonie's tariff/soft-CPI overhang, and is now consolidating just above the 1.4100 psych level through the Asian session. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-50s as price coils below 1.4110; ATR is thin at ~5 pips.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4095, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4115
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the path toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4100 psych shifts the read back toward the 1.4095 swing pivot
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ran the NY session up from 1.4055 to the 1.4110 confluence cap after Trump's 50% tariff proclamations weighed on CAD, then went flat in the Asian session with rejections stacking at 1.41110. Price now drifts at 1.4104, just below EMA20, ATR compressed to ~4 pips in a tight overnight range.
Support: 1.40988, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.40988 exposes the 1.4055 session low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow 12:30 UTC could shift this read
Consolidation just under session high after grind up.
USDCAD ground higher through London-NY toward a session high at 1.4110, tariff-driven CAD softness underpinning the move, then stalled and is now consolidating between 1.4100 and 1.4110 in early Asia. RSI(14) has cooled back to neutral near 52 as the advance flattened.
Support: 1.4100, 1.40988
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 extends the session-high advance
Failure to hold 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.40988 swing low
Canada Retail Sales tomorrow (23 Jul 12:30 UTC) is the next domestic catalyst
01:47 UTC
Uptrend, momentum fading into Asia · RSI 48 · price 1.41039
HH/HL chain stalling below 1.4110.
NY session ground USD/CAD up from 1.4054 to a session high of 1.4111, stalling just above the 1.4100 psychological level on soft CAD CPI and a firm USD. Asia session is now consolidating in thin volume between 1.4099 and 1.4110, RSI(14) cooling back to neutral.
Support: 1.40988, 1.40879, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.41105, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40988 breaks the rising support and the HL chain
Break above 1.41105 opens the path toward 1.4150
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift the CAD read
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session into the 1.4110 confluence flagged in the macro read, stalling just under it and now easing to 1.4104 in thin Asia-hours trade. RSI(14) has cooled to the mid-40s after the push; price holding above the rising support off the 1.4054 session low.
Support: 1.40988, 1.4085, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150/1.4175
Failure to hold 1.40988 confirms a lower-low toward 1.4085
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
NY session drove USDCAD off the 1.4055 low up to the 1.4110 confluence, with soft CAD CPI and tariff headlines weighing on the Loonie. Repeated rejections stalled the move just under 1.4110; Asia hours are now consolidating around 1.4100 with RSI cooling into the mid-40s.
Support: 1.4099, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4099 opens the 1.4055 prior low
Decisive break above 1.4110 confluence reaffirms the up leg toward 1.4150
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USDCAD ground higher through the window into the 1.4100 confluence flagged in the CAD read, printing a session high at 1.4110 before stalling. Price is now consolidating around 1.41045 with RSI(14) cooled back near 48; the rally from the 1.4055 session low has lost momentum but rising lows still hold.
Support: 1.4099, 1.4085, 1.4055
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
Close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.4099 breaks the rising-low structure
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
USD/CAD rallied through the US session to a one-week high near 1.4110, the 1.4100 confluence flagged on the tariff-driven CAD softness, then stalled. Asia has drifted back to hold 1.4099 with RSI(14) cooling to the mid-40s; range top intact.
Support: 1.40988, 1.4084, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4110, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.40988 opens the swing low at 1.40840
Sustained break above 1.41100 session high extends toward 1.41500
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
01:16 UTC
Uptrend stalling under 1.4110 · RSI 46 · price 1.41007
Consolidation below session high after grind up.
USDCAD ground higher through London-NY toward 1.4110, a one-week high, on soft Canadian CPI and the US tariff overhang, then stalled at the 1.4100 confluence. Price has since pulled back into Asia to test 1.4099, with RSI(14) cooling to mid-40s.
Support: 1.40988, 1.4084, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4100
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41110 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold 1.40988 exposes the 1.4084 swing low
USDCAD climbed through the NY session from the 1.4055 swing low to a session high at 1.4110, backed by a firm USD and tariff pressure on CAD. The 1.4100 confluence capped and price is now drifting back into Asia hours, printing 1.41036 just under EMA20 as momentum cools.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the path higher
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round level exposes the 1.4085 prior high
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could reshape this read
USDCAD ground higher through the London-NY session from 1.4055 to a 1.4111 session high, backed by a firm USD and CAD's soft-CPI/tariff drag. Price is now consolidating in thin Asia hours around 1.4104, holding above the 1.4100 round number but capped below the session high.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens the path toward 1.4150 interim resistance
Failure to hold 1.4100 round number exposes 1.4085
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could shift this read
NY session drove USDCAD up from 1.4055 into the 1.4110 confluence flagged as resistance, then Asia session stalled and is consolidating just under it around 1.4106. Price is drifting back toward the 1.4100 round number after repeated rejections at 1.4110; RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range as the drive flattens.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 session high opens the path higher toward 1.4150
Loss of 1.4100 round number puts the 1.4085 swing low in play
Canada Retail Sales Thu could reset this intraday range
USDCAD ground higher through NY and into the Asian session toward 1.41106, extending a second day of gains on tariff-driven CAD softness, but upside stalled at the 1.4100 confluence resistance. Now consolidating 1.4100–1.4110 on thinning late-Asia volume, RSI(14) back to neutral.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.41106, 1.4150
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.41106 opens the path toward 1.4150
Failure to hold the 1.4100 round number exposes 1.4085 swing low
Canada Retail Sales (Thu 12:30 GMT) could shift this read
USDCAD ran to a 1.41110 session high through the prior NY session then stalled below the 1.4100 confluence highlighted after soft Canada CPI; thin Asian trade has drifted it back to 1.41012 with RSI(14) near 47. Sellers capped repeatedly at 1.4110 while 1.4100 psych holds so far.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4095, 1.4076
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.41042
What it said to watch
M15 close below 1.4100 exposes the 1.40950 swing low
Reclaim of 1.41110 resumes the intraday uptrend
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 GMT could reprice the CAD leg
USDCAD ground higher through NY on soft CAD CPI and tariff pressure, stalling at 1.41110 before an Asia-session drift back to 1.41000. Momentum has flattened — price slipped under EMA20 while holding above the 1.41000 round number, RSI cooling toward mid-40s.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4065, 1.4054
Resistance: 1.4111, 1.41042
What it said to watch
Sustained break of 1.41110 session high reopens upside
Loss of 1.41000 psych exposes 1.40650 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the CAD read
Consolidating near session highs after rally off 1.4055.
USDCAD rallied through the London-NY window from the 1.4055 swing low into a session high at 1.41110, aided by soft Canadian CPI and a firm USD. Price has since stalled and drifted back to hold above the 1.4100 psych level in the Asia session, RSI cooling to the mid-50s on thin volume.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4091
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.41110 reopens the path higher
Loss of 1.4100 psych exposes the 1.40910 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift the near-term read
USDCAD ground higher through the NY session toward 1.41110 as soft Canadian CPI and the fresh US tariff headline weighed on CAD, but the advance stalled below the 1.4100 confluence and rolled off in thin Asia hours. Price has slipped back to 1.41036 with RSI cooling to ~52; buyers held the 1.4100 area on the pullback.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
Sustained M15 close above 1.41110 reopens the path higher
Loss of 1.41000 confluence would put the 1.40850 shelf back in focus
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read
USDCAD ground up through the London-NY session toward the 1.4110 confluence, underpinned by soft Canada CPI and the Section 338 tariff headline, but stalled and is now coiling just above the 1.4100 round number in a thin Asia session. RSI(14) has cooled to mid-range as the advance flattens below resistance.
Support: 1.4100, 1.4085, 1.40555
Resistance: 1.4110
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 confluence opens continuation higher
Failure to hold 1.4100 round number exposes the 1.4085 swing low
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could reset the intraday read
Higher highs into 1.4110, now consolidating at the top.
USDCAD climbed through the NY session off the 1.4055 low to stall just under the 1.4110 session high, tracking the soft-CPI/tariff CAD weakness noted in the digest. Price is now consolidating in a tight 1.4105-1.4110 band on fading volume, with the 1.4100 confluence flipping to psych support beneath.
Support: 1.4105, 1.4100, 1.40968
Resistance: 1.4111
What it said to watch
M15 close above 1.4110 opens continuation past the 1.4100 confluence
Loss of 1.4100 psych support turns the read back toward the 1.40968 swing
Canada Retail Sales Thu 12:30 UTC could shift this read